Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? is a geopolitics prediction market asking whether Iran will publicly agree to end all uranium enrichment by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The forecast centers on a clear policy shift: a qualifying agreement or pledge must commit Iran to stop all enrichment, whether announced unilaterally or as part of a broader arrangement with the U.S. or Israel. Partial limits, caps, or lower enrichment levels do not count. The market’s primary resolution source is a consensus of credible reporting.

This event matters because Iran’s nuclear program remains a central issue in Middle East security, U.S.-Iran relations, and wider diplomatic efforts involving Trump-era geopolitics. The prediction market began on March 31, 2026 and runs through the year-end deadline, giving traders a defined timeframe to assess diplomatic developments, official statements, and negotiations. Current market probability is 56.5%, suggesting a modestly favored Yes outcome, though market sentiment can change as new information emerges. As an event prediction, it tracks whether a formal Iranian commitment to end uranium enrichment appears before the deadline.