Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? is a geopolitics prediction market focused on whether Iran will publicly agree to stop all uranium enrichment before the June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET deadline. The market resolves to Yes only if Iran makes a qualifying public pledge, either on its own or as part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel. A temporary commitment, an agreement tied to a broader peace process, or a pledge made before the deadline would count, but a mere cap or reduction in enrichment levels would not.

This event matters because uranium enrichment is central to nuclear nonproliferation, Middle East security, and U.S.-Iran negotiations, making it a closely watched geopolitical forecast. Market sentiment currently places the probability at 26.5%, suggesting traders see the outcome as possible but not the base case. As a prediction market with active trading, it reflects evolving odds around diplomacy, regional conflict, and nuclear policy. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.