Insurrection Act invoked by...?

"Insurrection Act invoked by...?" is a political prediction market asking whether Donald Trump will officially invoke the Insurrection Act of 1807 by the listed deadline of 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026. The market resolves to Yes only if Trump formally announces the act as legal authority for deploying active-duty U.S. military forces or federalizing the National Guard in response to civil disorder, insurrection, or rebellion; otherwise it resolves to No. This event sits in the Politics category under the Minnesota Unrest subcategory, reflecting the broader debate over federal response options and unrest-related authority. As a prediction market, it is tracking trader sentiment on a specific constitutional and political outcome, with current implied probability near 1.85%, suggesting the expected outcome is still overwhelmingly No. Market participants are effectively pricing the odds that an official invocation will occur before the end-date deadline. The resolution will rely on a consensus of credible reporting, making accurate public announcements and official statements the key signals for this event prediction.