Evo Morales arrested by...?

Evo Morales arrested by...? is a political prediction market asking whether former President of Bolivia Evo Morales will be arrested or detained by law enforcement before May 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. The event resolves to Yes if Morales is taken into official custody, formally booked, placed under house arrest, or otherwise detained in a qualifying law-enforcement action; it resolves to No if no such arrest or detention occurs by the deadline. The market excludes situations such as an unexecuted arrest warrant, questioning without arrest, or indictment alone. As a politics category event in the arrest subcategory, it draws attention to developments in Bolivia and any official actions involving national, local, military, or international authorities. Current market probability is about 2.45%, indicating traders see an arrest as possible but unlikely. The forecast reflects market sentiment around legal and political risk rather than certainty, and the outcome depends on official government or law-enforcement reporting, with credible media used as backup if needed. The market is active through the end-of-May 2026 window, making it a time-sensitive event prediction for traders tracking Bolivia politics and arrest-related odds.