Another US strike on Venezuela by...?

“Another US strike on Venezuela by...?” is a politics prediction market asking whether a new US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on Venezuelan soil will be announced or credibly reported before the market deadline. The forecast focuses on whether a qualifying strike physically impacts territory inside Venezuela, including inland waters and ports, but excluding the territorial sea. It does not count intercepted weapons, surface-to-air missile activity, artillery, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks.

This event matters because it tracks the risk of direct US-Venezuela military escalation and broader geopolitical tensions in the region. Traders in the prediction market are effectively pricing the odds of a confirmed strike based on credible reporting and official claims from the US government or Donald Trump during the timeframe.

The market opens on January 3, 2026 and is scheduled to resolve by January 31, 2026, with a two-day confirmation window after the resolution time. Current market probability is listed at 0%, indicating very low expected outcome odds at the time of the latest data, though prediction market sentiment can change quickly as new reports emerge.