Will Ukraine agree to give up the rest of Donbas before 2027?

Will Ukraine agree to give up the rest of Donbas before 2027? is a geopolitics prediction market about whether Ukraine and Russia will reach a publicly announced deal that gives Russia de facto control of the remaining major Ukrainian-held cities in Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts. The market focuses on Kramatorsk, Sloviansk, Kostiantynivka, Druzhkivka, and Pokrovsk, and it resolves "Yes" only if such an agreement is confirmed by official announcement or overwhelming credible reporting by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. If Russia captures the cities through military action alone, that does not qualify. This makes the forecast especially relevant to traders tracking the Ukraine peace deal outlook, territorial negotiations, and broader market sentiment around the war. Current market probability is about 9.5%, suggesting traders see a relatively low expected outcome for a diplomatic cession of the rest of Donbas before the deadline. As a Ukraine subcategory event, it is closely watched for signals about negotiation risk, conflict resolution, and geopolitical odds heading into 2027.