Will the Senate pass a reconciliation bill by...?

Will the Senate pass a reconciliation bill by...? is a political prediction market that tracks whether the U.S. Senate will approve a reconciliation bill by the stated deadline of 11:59 PM ET on May 31, 2026. The market resolves to Yes only if official U.S. government information confirms passage by that time; otherwise it resolves to No, with credible reporting also used as a supporting source. As an Elections category event in the Politics subcategory, it sits squarely within congressional lawmaking and the broader debate over government funding and related priorities, including issues tied to DHS and CBP. Traders are forecasting the expected outcome through market odds and shifting market sentiment, making it a useful event prediction for observers following Congress. At the time of the latest update, the market probability is 0%, indicating no priced expectation of passage yet. That figure reflects current trader sentiment rather than a guarantee, and it may change as the deadline approaches and legislative negotiations continue.