Will Russia capture Sofiivka by...?

Will Russia capture Sofiivka by...? is a geopolitics prediction market focused on whether Russian forces will capture the specified intersection in Sofiivka, Donetsk Oblast, by February 28, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. The forecast is based primarily on the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) Ukraine map, with DeepStateMap or credible reporting used only if the primary sources become unavailable. For a “Yes” resolution, the intersection must be shown as under Russian control on the relevant map, or Russia must gain actual control through a negotiated settlement; temporary map glitches do not count. The market matters because it tracks battlefield control in eastern Ukraine and reflects trader sentiment on the likelihood of territorial advances before the deadline. Current market probability is not provided here, so the event should be read as an open-ended forecast rather than a settled outcome. The listing sits within the Ukraine and geopolitical forecast categories, making it relevant for users following Russia-Ukraine war developments, map-based resolution rules, and prediction market odds on territorial changes in Donetsk Oblast.