Will Russia capture Pokrovka by...?

Will Russia capture Pokrovka by...? is a geopolitics prediction market focused on whether Russian forces will capture a specific intersection in Pokrovka, Sumy Oblast, as defined by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) map. The market resolves to Yes if the intersection at 50.802224° N, 35.379423° E is shaded red on the ISW Ukraine map by February 28, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET, with the shading required to persist through the next daily update cycle. If Russia gains actual control through a negotiated settlement, that would also qualify. The event is relevant because it tracks battlefield control in the Ukraine war and reflects market sentiment on short-term territorial changes. As a prediction market, it lets traders express a forecast on the expected outcome using odds implied by buying and selling activity. At the time of the latest update, the market probability is 0%, suggesting traders currently see a very low chance of a Yes resolution before the deadline. Resolution will rely first on ISW, then DeepStateMap or credible reporting if needed.