Will Russia capture Huliaipilske by...?

Will Russia capture Huliaipilske by...? is a geopolitics prediction market focused on whether Russian forces will take control of a specific intersection in Huliaipilske, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, as defined by the ISW Ukraine map. The event resolves to Yes if the intersection at 47.612850° N, 36.062680° E is shaded red on the Institute for the Study of War map by 11:59 PM ET on the resolution date, with that control persisting through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If the ISW map is unavailable, DeepStateMap or credible reporting may be used as backup sources.

This forecast matters because it tracks battlefield movement in the Ukraine war and reflects changing market sentiment on territorial control in southeastern Ukraine. Traders in the prediction market are effectively pricing the odds that Russia will establish actual control over the location before the deadline. As of now, the market probability is 0%, indicating no current consensus that the outcome will occur. The market runs from its start date in April 2026 through the end date of May 31, 2026, making timing central to the event prediction.