Will Russia capture all of Ternuvate by...?

Will Russia capture all of Ternuvate by...? is a geopolitics prediction market on whether Russian forces will take full control of Ternuvate, Zaporizhzhya Oblast, by the market’s resolution deadline. The event focuses on the territory being marked as entirely under Russian control on the ISW Ukraine map, with DeepStateMap or credible reporting used only if the primary source is unavailable. In plain terms, traders are forecasting whether the municipality of Ternuvate will be fully captured rather than partially contested, with temporary map glitches excluded from resolution. The market also allows for a Yes outcome if Russia gains actual control through a negotiated settlement. The forecast is time-bound, with the referenced deadline set for February 28, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. As of the latest available data, market probability is 0%, suggesting no priced-in expectation of a successful capture. This event sits in the Ukraine Map subcategory and reflects broader market sentiment on the pace and extent of territorial change in the Russia-Ukraine war.