Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by...?

Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by...? is a geopolitics prediction market focused on whether Russian forces will take full control of Kostyantynivka in Donetsk Oblast, Ukraine, by the specified resolution date. The event is tied to the ISW Ukraine map, with a fallback to DeepStateMap or credible reporting if needed, and it resolves “Yes” only if the entire municipality is shown as captured or Russia otherwise establishes actual control by the deadline. This makes it a closely watched Ukraine forecast for traders following battlefield developments, map changes, and the broader outlook for the Donetsk front. The market is active from February 19, 2026 through December 31, 2026, giving participants a long window to assess event prediction signals and shifting market sentiment. Current market probability is about 3.15%, suggesting traders see a relatively low chance of full capture by the cutoff, though the odds can change as conditions evolve. Because the resolution depends on sustained control reflected in official map updates, this prediction market is especially sensitive to verified territorial gains rather than temporary claims or reporting.