Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027?

Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027? is a Canada-focused election prediction market tracking whether any provincial government will formally set a vote on secession by December 31, 2026. The forecasted outcome is straightforward: the market resolves “Yes” if a province officially schedules a referendum on leaving Canada, whether the vote is binding or non-binding, and “No” if no such referendum is set before the deadline. This makes the event relevant to Canadian politics, geopolitics, and broader questions about provincial autonomy and national unity.

The market uses credible reporting as its resolution source, and traders are currently assigning a 73.5% probability to the “Yes” outcome, indicating stronger market sentiment that such a referendum could be scheduled within the timeframe. With a start date of November 5, 2025 and an end date of December 31, 2026, the event prediction remains active over an extended period, allowing odds to shift as provincial politics and public debate evolve. As a prediction market, it offers a real-time view of expectations around a potentially significant Canadian political development.