Which banks will fail by June 30?

“Which banks will fail by June 30?” is a finance prediction market asking traders to forecast whether any listed bank will be deemed to have failed before June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The market resolves to “Yes” if a qualifying regulatory, court-ordered, or government-led failure occurs, including insolvency declarations, license withdrawal, resolution, liquidation, forced asset transfers, or other actions that wipe out or subordinate equity and place the bank under official control. It can also resolve on certain formally acknowledged defaults that lead directly to resolution or transfer. The event matters because bank failure risk can affect broader sentiment in the economy and banking sector, especially when regulators or resolution authorities intervene. Current market probability is around 45%, suggesting traders see a meaningful but not dominant chance of a qualifying failure before the deadline. The market opened on December 31, 2025 and is scheduled to close on June 30, 2026, though it may remain open until September 30, 2026 if a potential failure needs confirmation from official sources or credible reporting. As a prediction market, it reflects live odds and evolving market sentiment rather than a guaranteed forecast.