Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?

Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record? is a science-focused prediction market that asks traders to forecast the final temperature ranking for 2026 using NASA’s Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index. The event resolves by the year’s numerical rank among all years in the record, with 1 meaning the hottest year, 2 the second hottest, and so on. If 2026 ties with another year, it will take the tied year’s position. The primary resolution source is NASA’s "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" table, specifically the "No_Smoothing" value for 2026, with a fallback to credible reporting only if NASA data is unavailable by March 1, 2027. As of the latest market data, the probability of 2026 ranking among the hottest outcomes is 23.5%, reflecting current market sentiment rather than a guarantee. This climate and weather event prediction is relevant to anyone tracking global temperature trends, NASA climate data, and the broader science category on prediction markets. The market runs through December 31, 2026, making it a long-dated forecast tied to official annual climate measurements.