U.S. nuclear test by...?

U.S. nuclear test by...? is a geopolitics prediction market asking whether the United States will conduct a nuclear test by the listed deadline on March 31, 2026 (ET). The forecasted outcome resolves to Yes only if the US carries out an intentional non-combat detonation that produces a nuclear chain reaction, including a fission or fusion test. Accidents, dirty bombs, and actions by third parties do not count, and the market can also resolve based on a broad consensus of credible reporting if a test is not officially claimed. This event matters because any US nuclear test would have major implications for geopolitics, arms control, Russia-US tensions, and wider market sentiment around Ukraine and global security. As a prediction market, it reflects traders’ expectations about the odds of a test occurring before the deadline. The current market probability is 0%, indicating no active pricing for a US nuclear test at this time, though that can change as new information or headlines emerge.