Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?

Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? is a geopolitics prediction market focused on whether Ukraine will sign a qualifying written peace agreement, ceasefire, or formal roadmap with the Russian Federation by December 31, 2026. The market definition is specific: the document must include both countries as parties and either end hostilities or commit both sides to a defined process toward ending the war. Temporary or limited arrangements, such as localized ceasefires, humanitarian pauses, or prisoner-exchange deals, do not count. Only Ukraine’s signature is required for resolution, and the primary source will be consensus credible reporting. With the market currently implying about a 30.5% probability, traders are pricing in a meaningful but still limited chance of an event prediction outcome that would mark a major shift in the Russia-Ukraine conflict. The start date is November 5, 2025, and the end date is December 31, 2026, making timing central to this forecast.