Tread FDV above ___ one day after launch?

Tread FDV above ___ one day after launch? is a crypto prediction market asking whether Tread’s token will trade at a fully diluted valuation above the threshold set in the title one day after launch. The market resolves "Yes" only if Tread officially launches a token that is publicly tradable, while stablecoins, memecoins, LSTs, and synthetic tokens do not count. FDV is defined here as total token supply multiplied by token price, with the reference point measured at 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day after launch. If Tread does not launch a qualifying token by January 1, 2028, the event resolves to "No."

This event matters because it tracks early market sentiment around a new crypto launch and how traders are pricing the expected outcome shortly after listing. Current market probability is about 33.5%, suggesting the market is leaning toward a lower chance of clearing the stated FDV threshold, though that odds estimate can change as launch details emerge. For traders following pre-market crypto events, this forecast centers on Tread’s launch timing, token eligibility, and post-launch valuation discovery.