Russia coup attempt in 2026?

Russia coup attempt in 2026? is a geopolitics prediction market asking whether there will be a widely reported coup attempt in Russia before December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The forecast focuses on a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. General unrest, protests, or non-state revolutionary activity do not qualify under the market rules. The resolution will depend on a consensus of credible independent reporting, not just government claims about a foiled plot.

This event matters because a coup attempt would signal major instability in Russia and could affect domestic politics, regional security, and the wider geopolitical outlook, including the war in Ukraine. Current market probability is around 8.5%, suggesting traders see the expected outcome as unlikely but still possible. As a prediction market, the odds reflect evolving market sentiment rather than a certainty, and they may change as new reporting emerges between the May 15, 2026 start date and the end-of-year resolution deadline.