Makerfield by-election: Restore Britain receives 10%+?

Makerfield by-election: Restore Britain receives 10%+? is a UK election prediction market focused on whether Rebecca Shepherd, the Restore Britain candidate, will win at least 10% of the valid vote in the 2026 Makerfield by-election. The vote is scheduled for June 18, 2026, after the resignation of incumbent Josh Simons, making this a closely watched contest in the United Kingdom politics and elections category. The market resolves Yes if Shepherd’s share of the popular vote meets or exceeds the listed threshold, based on valid votes counted in the by-election; otherwise it resolves No. If the result is not definitively known by December 31, 2026, the market will also resolve No.

Current market probability is about 42.5%, indicating traders see a meaningful but uncertain chance that Restore Britain clears the 10% mark. As an election forecast, the event reflects market sentiment around the party’s expected outcome in Makerfield and how support may translate into vote share. Official results from Wigan Council are the primary resolution source.