Makerfield by-election: 2nd Place

Makerfield by-election: 2nd Place is a UK election prediction market focused on which candidate will finish with the second-highest number of valid votes in the parliamentary by-election for the Makerfield constituency. The election is expected to take place on June 18, 2026, following the announced resignation of incumbent Josh Simons, and the market will resolve based on the official or credibly reported vote totals, with Wigan Council results serving as the final reference if needed. If the result is not definitively known by December 31, 2026, the market will resolve to "Other."

This event is useful for traders tracking UK Elections, because it isolates the contest for second place rather than the winner, making it a more specific forecast of local political dynamics. Current market probability is around 22%, suggesting traders see a relatively low chance for the leading candidate in this particular outcome, though that probability may change as campaign coverage and election results approach. As with any prediction market, odds and market sentiment can shift quickly based on candidate performance, reporting, and turnout expectations.