Kevin Warsh cuts rates at first Fed meeting?

Kevin Warsh cuts rates at first Fed meeting? is a finance prediction market on whether the Federal Reserve will lower the upper bound of the federal funds target range at the first FOMC meeting after Kevin Warsh becomes Chair of the Federal Reserve. The forecast focuses on the FOMC statement and the official Fed rate decision, making the event dependent on both Warsh’s confirmation and the timing of the first qualifying meeting. If no such meeting occurs by December 31, 2026, or if his nomination is withdrawn or rejected, the market resolves to No. Current market probability is about 1.6%, indicating traders see a very low chance of an immediate rate cut. In prediction market terms, sentiment is strongly leaning toward no change at Warsh’s first meeting, with limited odds priced in for an early easing move. The event sits at the intersection of Trump-era political appointments, Fed Chair succession, and U.S. monetary policy, so it is closely watched by traders tracking event prediction and interest-rate expectations.