How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

How many Fed rate cuts in 2026? is a finance prediction market tracking the Federal Reserve’s policy path over the full 2026 calendar year. Traders are forecasting the total number of 25-basis-point rate cuts the Fed will make, including cuts announced at scheduled FOMC meetings and any emergency rate cuts outside the regular calendar. The market resolves based on official Federal Reserve and FOMC statements, with the final deadline set for December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET to capture any late-year action. In practical terms, a 50-basis-point cut would count as two cuts, while even a 1- to 24-basis-point reduction counts as one. This event matters because Fed rate cuts are a major signal for U.S. monetary policy, inflation expectations, and broader economic conditions, making it a closely watched economic policy forecast. Current market probability is 67.25%, suggesting traders currently expect a meaningful chance of the specified outcome, though the final odds can shift as the year progresses and new FOMC decisions are announced.