How many 7.0 or above earthquakes by June 30?

How many 7.0 or above earthquakes by June 30? is a weather and natural-disasters prediction market that asks traders to forecast the total number of earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide during the market’s defined window. The event runs from December 4, 2025, 12:00 PM ET through June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and it resolves using the USGS Earthquake Hazards Program significant-earthquake record. If a qualifying quake occurs near the end of the period but is not yet listed, the market may remain open until July 7, 2026, while the earthquake is verified.

The forecast matters because major earthquakes are rare, high-impact events that attract attention in science, climate, and risk markets. Prediction market traders are effectively pricing the expected outcome for whether one or more magnitude-7-plus earthquakes will appear before the deadline, based on current market sentiment and available odds. The listed probability is 0, suggesting no outcome has been priced in at the time of the data, though that can change as the resolution date approaches.