Anthropic vs OpenAI - higher valuation on December 31?

Anthropic vs OpenAI - higher valuation on December 31? is a technology prediction market focused on which AI company will have the larger private market valuation at the end of 2026. The forecast is based on the final Nasdaq Private Market (NPM) Price for December 31, 2026, with resolution rules that also account for a possible IPO, direct listing, or other corporate changes before the deadline. If NPM data is delayed, the market may remain open into early January 2027 before settling on the latest available information. As of the latest reading, traders are assigning Anthropic about an 80.5% probability of finishing with the higher valuation, suggesting strong market sentiment in its favor, though the outcome is not guaranteed. The event is relevant to AI, LLMs, Big Tech, and private-company finance because it compares two of the most closely watched names in frontier AI: Anthropic, maker of Claude, and OpenAI. Prediction-market participants are effectively pricing the expected outcome of their relative valuations rather than product performance or revenue alone.