2026 Midterms: House Popular Vote Margin of Victory

2026 Midterms: House Popular Vote Margin of Victory is a prediction market on the margin between the Democratic Party and Republican Party in the US House of Representatives midterm elections. The forecast measures the absolute difference in each party’s share of valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates, based on the official results published by the US Clerk of the House. Delegates and the Resident Commissioner are excluded from the calculation.

The event is tied to the November 3, 2026 election date, with the market remaining open until the result is resolved from the Clerk’s published vote totals, including any recounts noted in that record. If the midterms are not held by June 30, 2027, the market resolves to Other.

Current market probability is 2.05%, reflecting trader expectations that the final House popular vote margin will fall within the listed outcome range. As an election forecast, the market is a useful signal of market sentiment on the broader US election and congressional landscape, including Democratic and Republican performance in the House of Representatives.