[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":1255},["ShallowReactive",2],{"category-events-trending":3,"category-content-trending":74},[4,24,47,66,78,97,107,124,141,157,174,186,198,210,227,238,250,265,280,295,311,325,337,349,365,381,391,408,423,438,449,462,473,487,498,510,526,537,550,564,577,589,605,618,630,642,656,668,680,693,705,718,730,740,752,764,776,788,805,818,832,842,855,868,879,891,904,919,931,943,956,968,980,991,1004,1016,1027,1039,1049,1059,1071,1084,1100,1112,1124,1136,1149,1160,1172,1183,1193,1202,1213,1223,1233,1243],{"id":5,"title":6,"slug":7,"category":8,"subcategory":9,"tags":10,"probability":16,"createdAt":17,"updatedAt":18,"resolutionDate":19,"description":20,"summary":21,"volume1wk":22,"featured":23},"30615","World Cup Winner ","world-cup-winner","SPORTS","Soccer",[9,11,12,13,14,15],"Sports","FIFA World Cup","2026 FIFA World Cup","Hide From New","Tournament Futures",14.15,"2026-05-30T10:42:43.213Z","2026-06-16T10:07:28.128Z","2026-07-20T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve according to the national team that wins the 2026 FIFA World Cup.\n\nIf at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.\n\nIf the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.\n\nThe primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.","Worldz Cup Winner is a sports prediction market on the 2026 FIFA World Cup that forecasts which national team will lift the trophy. The market resolves to the team officially declared the winner by FIFA, and it can also resolve early to “No” if the selected team is eliminated before winning. If the tournament is canceled or not completed by October 13, 2026, the market resolves to “Other.” This makes the event a straightforward forecast tied to one of the biggest soccer competitions in the world.\n\nThe market is active ahead of the tournament, which is scheduled to run through July 20, 2026, and it has drawn strong trading interest from prediction market participants watching team strength, bracket paths, and tournament form. Current market probability sits at 16.75%, indicating that traders see a meaningful but far from certain chance for the implied leading outcome. As with any event prediction, odds and market sentiment may shift quickly as the World Cup approaches and match results change the outlook.",669993341.9038624,true,{"id":25,"title":26,"slug":27,"category":28,"subcategory":29,"tags":30,"probability":40,"createdAt":41,"updatedAt":42,"resolutionDate":43,"description":44,"summary":45,"volume1wk":46,"featured":23},"357807","US x Iran permanent peace deal by...?","us-x-iran-permanent-peace-deal-by","GEOPOLITICS","Iran",[29,31,32,33,34,35,36,37,38,39],"Trump","ceasefire","Iran Ceasefire","Agreement","10-point","U.S. x Iran","Geopolitics","Politics","Peace Deal",0,"2026-05-30T10:42:43.363Z","2026-06-16T10:07:37.026Z","2026-12-31T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran and the United states agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. \n\nA permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between the US and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the two-week ceasefire agreement announced on April 7, 2026), will not qualify.\n\nA qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:\n\n- The United States and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.\n\n- Both the governments of the United States and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.","US x Iran permanent peace deal by...? is a geopolitics prediction market asking whether the United States and Iran will reach a permanent peace deal by the specified deadline of 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026. The forecasted outcome is narrowly defined: the market resolves “Yes” only if both sides sign or publicly confirm a qualifying agreement that clearly ends military hostilities on a lasting basis. Temporary ceasefires, extensions, or statements of progress do not count.\n\nThis event matters because U.S.-Iran relations remain a major driver of geopolitical risk, regional stability, and broader market sentiment. Traders are watching for official statements, treaty language, or other credible confirmation from both governments that a durable agreement has been established. The resolution source prioritizes official information, with credible reporting used as a secondary reference.\n\nCurrent market probability is 0%, indicating traders do not expect a permanent peace deal before the deadline at this time. As a geopolitical forecast, the market reflects ongoing uncertainty around U.S. x Iran diplomacy, ceasefire dynamics, and the likelihood of a definitive agreement rather than a temporary pause in hostilities.",80346197.77405979,{"id":48,"title":49,"slug":50,"category":51,"subcategory":52,"tags":53,"probability":59,"createdAt":60,"updatedAt":61,"resolutionDate":62,"description":63,"summary":64,"volume1wk":65,"featured":23},"101772","Fed Decision in June?","fed-decision-in-june-825","FINANCE","Economic Policy",[52,54,55,56,38,57,58],"Jerome Powell","Fed Rates","Fed","Economy","fomc",0.45,"2026-05-30T10:42:43.783Z","2026-06-16T10:06:42.413Z","2026-06-17T00:00:00.000Z","The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.\n\nThis market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's June 2026 meeting.\n\nIf the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut\u002Fincrease of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for June 16-17, 2026 according to the official calendar: https:\u002F\u002Fwww.federalreserve.gov\u002Fmonetarypolicy\u002Ffomccalendars.htm.\n\nThe level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https:\u002F\u002Fwww.federalreserve.gov\u002Fmonetarypolicy\u002Fopenmarket.htm.\n\nThis market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the \"No change\" bracket.\n","Fed Decision in June? is a finance prediction market tracking whether the Federal Reserve will change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate after the FOMC meeting scheduled for June 16-17, 2026. The forecast is based on the size of the rate move versus the level in place before the June 2026 meeting, with changes rounded to the nearest 25 basis points if the Fed announces an amount not listed in the market. Resolution depends on the FOMC statement or official Federal Reserve rate publication, and the market may resolve as soon as the June meeting statement is released. If no statement is issued by the end date, the market resolves to “No change.”\n\nAs of the latest update, traders are assigning about a 75% probability to this event outcome, reflecting market sentiment around the Fed rates decision, Jerome Powell, and broader economic policy expectations. The event is relevant for anyone following monetary policy, inflation signals, and the direction of U.S. interest rates.",43753405.28664605,{"id":67,"title":68,"slug":69,"category":28,"subcategory":29,"tags":70,"probability":71,"createdAt":72,"updatedAt":73,"resolutionDate":74,"description":75,"summary":76,"volume1wk":77,"featured":23},"504099","Iran ceasefire continues through...?","iran-ceasefire-continues-through",[29,38,33,37],100,"2026-05-30T10:42:43.405Z","2026-05-30T10:36:50.144Z",null,"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the US-Iranian ceasefire remains in effect through the listed date (ET).  Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. \n\nThe US-Iranian ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect if the US government officially publicly confirms or if an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirms that the U.S. conducted a kinetic military action on Iranian soil before the resolution date. \n\nConfirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action must occur within one calendar day following the underlying action (i.e., by 11:59 PM ET on the following calendar day) in order to qualify. Accordingly, this market will remain open for one calendar day following the listed end date to allow for confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action occurring near the deadline.\n\nA qualifying \"kinetic military action\" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory. \n\nKinetic action against Iranian forces which do not occur within Iranian terrestrial territory will not qualify. \n\nActions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.\n\nThe resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.","Iran ceasefire continues through...? is a geopolitics prediction market asking whether the US-Iranian ceasefire will remain in effect through the listed deadline. The market resolves to Yes if no qualifying US kinetic military action on Iranian soil is officially confirmed by the US government or established by overwhelming credible reporting before the resolution date. A qualifying action is narrowly defined as aerial bombs, drones, or missiles launched by US military forces that impact Iranian territory; other forms of conflict, including artillery, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks, do not count under the rules. The event matters because it tracks the durability of a fragile ceasefire in a high-stakes geopolitical conflict and helps summarize market sentiment around escalation risk. Traders in this prediction market are effectively forecasting the expected outcome based on developments in US-Iran relations and conflict reporting. The market opened on May 20, 2026, and remains open for one additional day after the listed end date to allow time for confirmation. Current market probability is 100%, indicating the market is overwhelmingly pricing in that the ceasefire will continue through the resolution window, though odds can still change if new reporting emerges.",25312735.30568604,{"id":79,"title":80,"slug":81,"category":82,"subcategory":38,"tags":83,"probability":90,"createdAt":91,"updatedAt":92,"resolutionDate":93,"description":94,"summary":95,"volume1wk":96,"featured":23},"106520","Peru Presidential Election Winner","peru-presidential-election-winner","ELECTIONS",[38,84,85,86,87,88,89],"Global Elections","World Elections","Elections","Peru","Peru Election","Main Election",0.15,"2026-05-30T10:42:44.740Z","2026-06-16T10:02:41.642Z","2026-04-12T00:00:00.000Z","General elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the next Peruvian Presidential election. \n\nThis market includes any potential second round. \n\nIf the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThis market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https:\u002F\u002Fwww.onpe.gob.pe\u002Felecciones\u002F) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https:\u002F\u002Fportal.jne.gob.pe\u002Fportal\u002F) ","Peru Presidential Election Winner is a prediction market on who will win Peru’s next presidential election, including the possibility of a second round. General elections are scheduled for April 12, 2026, and the market will resolve to the listed candidate that ultimately secures the presidency. If the results are not definitively known by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the outcome will resolve to \"Other.\" This election market draws on official reporting from Peru’s National Office of Electoral Processes (ONPE) and the National Jury of Elections (JNE) if there is any ambiguity in the result.\n\nAs an election forecast, the market is useful for tracking political sentiment around Peru’s main election and for comparing trader expectations as the campaign develops. The current market probability is about 1.05%, indicating very limited odds assigned to a specific outcome at this moment. Because the event can be affected by a runoff and by post-election certification, it is a relevant example of how prediction market pricing reflects evolving expectations rather than a guaranteed result.",16525619.599477056,{"id":98,"title":99,"slug":100,"category":28,"subcategory":38,"tags":101,"probability":40,"createdAt":102,"updatedAt":103,"resolutionDate":74,"description":104,"summary":105,"volume1wk":106,"featured":23},"517606","US announces new Iran agreement\u002Fceasefire extension by...?","us-announces-new-iran-agreementceasefire-extension-by",[38,37,33,29,36,39],"2026-05-30T10:42:44.017Z","2026-06-16T10:06:05.405Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if the U.S. officially announces an extension of the ceasefire agreement between the U.S. and Iran, defined as a publicly announced commitment to the continued halt of direct military engagement with Iran or announces a new peace agreement, ceasefire framework, or diplomatic agreement under which the ceasefire will continue by the specified date 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf a qualifying announcement is officially made before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire extension ultimately takes effect.\n\nA qualifying announcement requires clear public confirmation from the U.S. government that the U.S. has either:\n \n1. Extended its commitment to the ceasefire, either as a dated\u002Ftime-based extension (e.g. a 60 day extension) or through an explicit statement that the ceasefire has been extended.\n\n2. Renewed the existing ceasefire as part of a broader peace agreement, ceasefire framework, or diplomatic agreement under which the ceasefire will continue.\n\nStatements which merely acknowledge, reaffirm, or describe the current ceasefire as remaining in effect, or which outline further negotiations or de-escalation measures, without announcing a new extension period, or successor agreement under which the ceasefire will continue, will not qualify.\n\nThe following would qualify:\n- President Trump announcing that “the ceasefire has been extended for another 60 days.”\n- An official U.S. statement announcing that “the United States and Iran have agreed to extend the ceasefire framework while negotiations continue.”\n- President Trump’s April 21, 2026 announcement extending the ceasefire “until the Iranian negotiators could reach a unified proposal.”\n- An announcement that the US and Iran have agreed to a new temporary framework under which the ceasefire would continue as Iran gradually reopens the Strait of Hormuz and the United States begins to unfreeze Iranian assets would qualify.\n\nThe following would not qualify:\n- Statements that the ceasefire merely “remains in effect” or “continues to hold,” without announcing a new extension, renewal, or successor agreement.\n- Statements that “the ceasefire will remain in effect while negotiations continue,” without announcing that the ceasefire itself has been extended, or a new framework or deal has been reached\n- Statements that negotiations are progressing, that talks are ongoing, or that the parties are “getting closer” to a deal, without announcing that the ceasefire itself has been extended, renewed, or continued under a new agreement.\n\n\nAn overwhelming consensus of credible reporting that a qualifying extension or successor agreement has been definitively established will also suffice for a “Yes” resolution.\n\nThis market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the U.S. government and will not require confirmation from Iran. ","US announces new Iran agreement\u002Fceasefire extension by...? is a geopolitics prediction market focused on whether the U.S. government will officially announce a continuation of the ceasefire with Iran, or a new peace agreement, ceasefire framework, or diplomatic deal that keeps the truce in place. The market resolves to Yes only if there is a qualifying public U.S. announcement by the specified deadline; statements that simply say the ceasefire is holding or that talks are ongoing do not count. In other words, traders are forecasting whether Washington will formally extend or renew the current U.S.-Iran ceasefire arrangement rather than merely discuss de-escalation. This event matters because any official extension or successor agreement would be a notable signal in U.S.-Iran relations, with implications for military risk, regional stability, and diplomacy in the Middle East. The market opened on May 23, 2026, and resolution is tied to the announced cutoff at 11:59 PM ET on the target date. Current market probability is 0%, indicating no priced expectation of a qualifying announcement at this time, though prediction market sentiment can change quickly as official statements or credible reporting emerge.",16205133.21684103,{"id":108,"title":109,"slug":110,"category":111,"subcategory":57,"tags":112,"probability":40,"createdAt":118,"updatedAt":119,"resolutionDate":120,"description":121,"summary":122,"volume1wk":123,"featured":23},"16167","MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by ___ ?","microstrategy-sell-any-bitcoin-in-2025","CRYPTO",[57,113,114,115,116,117],"Business","2025 Predictions","Crypto","MicroStrategy","Stocks","2026-05-30T10:42:43.647Z","2026-05-30T10:32:02.132Z","2027-01-01T05:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if MicroStrategy sells any of its Bitcoin by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from MSTR and on-chain data, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.","MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by ___ ? is a crypto prediction market focused on whether MicroStrategy will sell any of its Bitcoin before December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. The event asks traders to forecast a simple yes-or-no outcome: if the company disposes of any Bitcoin during the resolution window, the market resolves to Yes; otherwise it resolves to No. This matters because MicroStrategy is one of the most closely watched corporate Bitcoin holders, and any sale would be a meaningful signal for crypto market sentiment and the company’s treasury strategy. The market uses information from MSTR and on-chain data, with credible reporting also considered for resolution. As of the latest available data, the market probability is 0%, though that figure should be understood as current market sentiment rather than a guarantee. The event opened on December 31, 2024 and remains active through the end of 2025, giving traders a long-dated event prediction tied to corporate behavior, Bitcoin holdings, and broader crypto and business outlooks.",13052528.154986965,{"id":125,"title":126,"slug":127,"category":51,"subcategory":128,"tags":129,"probability":40,"createdAt":136,"updatedAt":137,"resolutionDate":138,"description":126,"summary":139,"volume1wk":140,"featured":23},"415443","What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in May 2026?","what-price-will-wti-hit-in-may-2026","Finance",[128,130,131,14,132,133,134,135],"Monthly","Hit Price","Finance Updown","Pyth Finance","Commodities","Oil","2026-05-30T10:42:43.693Z","2026-05-30T10:38:59.671Z","2026-05-31T17:00:00.000Z","What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in May 2026? is a finance prediction market focused on the monthly price range of West Texas Intermediate crude oil. Traders are forecasting which price level WTI will reach during the May 2026 contract window, making this an event prediction tied to commodity markets and oil price volatility. The market opens on April 25, 2026 and resolves by May 31, 2026, so the outcome depends on where WTI trades before the end of the month. This type of forecast matters because crude oil prices influence energy markets, inflation expectations, transport costs, and broader financial sentiment. Market participants use the prediction market to express views on supply, demand, geopolitics, and macroeconomic conditions affecting oil. Current market data shows substantial activity, with strong volume and liquidity, indicating meaningful trader interest, but no probability figure is available here to quantify the odds. As a result, the listing reflects an active commodity forecast rather than a guaranteed price target.",12887084.736748997,{"id":142,"title":143,"slug":144,"category":82,"subcategory":85,"tags":145,"probability":150,"createdAt":151,"updatedAt":152,"resolutionDate":153,"description":154,"summary":155,"volume1wk":156,"featured":23},"30829","Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028","democratic-presidential-nominee-2028",[85,84,86,38,146,147,148,149],"US Election","Earn 4%","Primaries","United States",1.05,"2026-05-30T10:42:43.593Z","2026-06-16T10:06:50.972Z","2028-11-07T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources.\n\nAny replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.","Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028 is a prediction market tracking who will win and accept the Democratic Party’s nomination for U.S. president in 2028. The event matters because the nominee will shape the party’s national campaign, policy agenda, and general election strategy, making it a closely watched forecast in U.S. politics and world elections coverage. According to the market rules, the contract resolves to “Yes” if the named individual secures and accepts the 2028 Democratic nomination; a replacement before Election Day does not change the resolution. The market is active from July 11, 2025 through November 7, 2028, when the outcome is expected to be settled. Current market probability is about 1.05%, indicating traders see the named outcome as a low-probability event at present, though prediction market odds can shift as the election cycle develops. As an election forecast, this market reflects market sentiment around Democratic primaries, party leadership, and the eventual nominee selection process.",9084772.468148999,{"id":158,"title":159,"slug":160,"category":28,"subcategory":161,"tags":162,"probability":167,"createdAt":168,"updatedAt":169,"resolutionDate":170,"description":171,"summary":172,"volume1wk":173,"featured":23},"375597","Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?","strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-end-of-june","Macro Geopolitics",[161,163,135,164,165,57,166,29,37],"Hormuz","ships","Strait of Hormuz","transit",17.5,"2026-05-30T10:42:44.781Z","2026-06-16T10:07:25.061Z","2026-06-30T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and June 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nDaily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on\u002Froll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.\n\nThis market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.\n\nRevisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for June 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.\n\nIn case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https:\u002F\u002Fportwatch.imf.org\u002Fpages\u002Fcb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.","Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? is a geopolitics prediction market focused on whether shipping activity through one of the world’s most strategically important chokepoints will recover to a 7-day moving average of at least 60 transit calls. The forecast is based on IMF Portwatch data for “Arrivals of Ships” in the Strait of Hormuz, covering container, dry bulk, roll-on\u002Froll-off, general cargo, and tanker vessels. The market will resolve Yes if that threshold is published on any date between market creation and June 30, 2026; otherwise it will resolve No. Because the strait is central to global oil flows and broader U.S.-Iran tensions, traders are watching it as a macro geopolitics event prediction with potential implications for energy markets and regional risk sentiment. Current market probability is about 33.5%, suggesting traders see a return to normal traffic as possible but not the base case. The event starts on April 13, 2026 and runs through the end of June, with resolution tied directly to IMF Portwatch publications and their revision rules.",8515903.754582984,{"id":175,"title":176,"slug":177,"category":178,"subcategory":38,"tags":179,"probability":40,"createdAt":180,"updatedAt":181,"resolutionDate":182,"description":183,"summary":184,"volume1wk":185,"featured":23},"438327","Iran closes its airspace by...?","iran-closes-its-airspace-by","POLITICS",[38,37,36,29],"2026-05-30T10:42:44.156Z","2026-05-30T10:38:40.231Z","2026-05-31T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran initiates a major closure of its airspace, that is not solely due to weather conditions, by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nA “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or suspension of commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from Iranian airspace or a major Iranian Airspace region. A qualifying closure must apply generally to flights across Iran or a major Iranian airspace region. Limited cancellations, delays, or other partial closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain flights pre-approved by the Iranian Civil Aviation Authority may be permitted). \n\nAny non-weather complete suspension of commercial arrivals and departures affecting at least two of the following airports will qualify: Imam Khomeini International Airport (IKA), Mehrabad Airport (THR), Mashhad International Airport (MHD), Shiraz International Airport (SYZ), or Isfahan International Airport (IFN).\n\nQualifying previous examples include the January 2026 total closure of Iranian airspace except to international flights with express governmental permission (https:\u002F\u002Fwww.reuters.com\u002Fworld\u002Fmiddle-east\u002Firan-shuts-airspace-most-flights-flightradar24-says-2026-01-14\u002F) and the April 2024 closure of Iran’s western airspace (https:\u002F\u002Fwww.reuters.com\u002Fworld\u002Fmiddle-east\u002Firanian-airports-cancel-flights-until-monday-morning-2024-04-14\u002F). Non-qualifying examples include the January 27, 2026 partial closure of Iranian airspace around the Strait of Hormuz (https:\u002F\u002Fwww.aa.com.tr\u002Fen\u002Fmiddle-east\u002Firan-issues-airspace-notice-for-military-drills-near-strait-of-hormuz\u002F3812508) and the January 25 - April 25, 2026 VFR (Visual Flight Rules) flights suspension which did not broadly close commercial aviation in a qualifying region (https:\u002F\u002Fwww.intellinews.com\u002Firan-suspends-general-aviation-and-vfr-flights-in-new-airspace-directive-421997\u002F).\n\nWarnings, No-Fly-Zones, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Iran will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.\n\nAirspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from Iranian aviation authorities and a consensus of credible reporting.","Iran closes its airspace by...? is a political prediction market asking whether Iran will initiate a major closure of its airspace by the listed deadline of May 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. The forecast is focused on a broad suspension or cancellation of commercial flights transiting, arriving in, or departing from Iranian airspace, or a major Iranian airspace region, and excludes disruptions caused solely by weather. To qualify, the event must involve a general closure affecting commercial aviation, with examples including major restrictions at airports such as Imam Khomeini International Airport, Mehrabad, Mashhad, Shiraz, or Isfahan. This event matters because Iranian airspace decisions can affect regional aviation, U.S. x Iran geopolitics, and broader Middle East market sentiment. Traders in the prediction market are weighing the odds based on official aviation notices and credible reporting, with current market probability near 0%, indicating a low expected outcome at present. The market’s resolution will depend on whether Iran’s aviation authorities or reliable news sources confirm a qualifying closure before the deadline.",6620506.11378,{"id":187,"title":188,"slug":189,"category":28,"subcategory":165,"tags":190,"probability":192,"createdAt":193,"updatedAt":194,"resolutionDate":170,"description":195,"summary":196,"volume1wk":197,"featured":23},"372242","Trump announces US blockade of Hormuz lifted by...?","trump-announces-us-blockade-of-hormuz-lifted-by",[165,37,31,33,38,29,36,191,163],"Middle East",15.5,"2026-05-30T10:42:44.199Z","2026-05-30T10:40:08.245Z","On April 12, 2026, President Donald Trump announced that the United States will blockade the Strait of Hormuz. You can read more about that here: https:\u002F\u002Fwww.nbcnews.com\u002Fworld\u002Firan\u002Flive-blog\u002Flive-updates-us-iran-fail-reach-deal-peace-talks-day-negotiations-rcna315918.\n\nThis market will resolve to \"Yes\" if President Trump, the US government, or the US military publicly and officially announces the end of the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nQualifying statements must clearly and explicitly indicate that the United States has lifted, ended, or will lift or end its blockade of the Strait of Hormuz on a specified date or use equivalently definitive language unambiguously signaling that such blockade has ceased or is set to cease on a specified date (e.g., statements unambiguously indicating that US naval activity in the relevant area has ceased will qualify). \n\nStatements that merely describe actions inconsistent with the blockade (e.g., \"Iran resumed shipping through the Strait of Hormuz\") without explicitly indicating the blockade as lifted will not alone suffice.\n\nInformal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks do not qualify.\n\nWritten public statements from Donald Trump (e.g., posts from his personal Truth Social account) will qualify. Videos posted on his social media accounts will also qualify for a \"Yes\" resolution.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the US government and\u002For its official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.\n\nNote: this market will resolve solely based on whether a qualifying announcement is made within the specified timeframe. Whether the blockade is effectively enforced or whether maritime traffic resumes absent a qualifying announcement will not be considered.","Trump announces US blockade of Hormuz lifted by...? is a geopolitics prediction market focused on whether President Donald Trump, the US government, or the US military will publicly and officially announce that the United States has ended its blockade of the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The event centers on the Strait of Hormuz, a critical shipping route in the Middle East, and the market resolves only if there is clear, definitive language that the blockade has been lifted or will be lifted by the deadline. Informal comments, leaks, or reports that merely imply normal shipping will not qualify.\n\nThe forecast matters because any change in US policy toward the Strait of Hormuz could affect regional tensions between the US and Iran, as well as broader market expectations around Middle East geopolitics. Current market probability sits at about 15.5%, suggesting traders assign a relatively low chance of a qualifying announcement before the deadline. As with most prediction market event prediction contracts, odds reflect evolving market sentiment rather than certainty, and traders are watching for any official statement from Trump or US authorities that meets the market’s resolution rules.",6602933.03823101,{"id":199,"title":200,"slug":201,"category":82,"subcategory":85,"tags":202,"probability":204,"createdAt":205,"updatedAt":206,"resolutionDate":153,"description":207,"summary":208,"volume1wk":209,"featured":23},"31552","Presidential Election Winner 2028","presidential-election-winner-2028",[85,84,146,86,38,147,203,149,89],"President",0.65,"2026-05-30T10:42:43.733Z","2026-06-16T10:05:49.318Z","The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028.\n\nThis market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.","Presidential Election Winner 2028 is a prediction market on who will win the 2028 US Presidential Election. The forecast tracks the expected outcome of the main US election and will resolve to the person who is elected president, or to “No” if the market’s conditions are not met. The race is scheduled for November 7, 2028, with a final resolution backstop tied to the January 20, 2029 inauguration date if AP, Fox News, and NBC have not all called the race for the same candidate by then. As a result, this event focuses not just on election-night results, but also on the official certification path that determines how the market settles. Current market probability stands at about 65%, indicating traders are assigning a meaningful but far from certain chance to the expected outcome. For followers of US election odds, political forecasting, and event prediction, this market reflects broader market sentiment around the 2028 presidential contest in the United States.",6422552.3238429995,{"id":211,"title":212,"slug":213,"category":8,"subcategory":11,"tags":214,"probability":220,"createdAt":221,"updatedAt":222,"resolutionDate":223,"description":224,"summary":225,"volume1wk":226,"featured":23},"27830","2026 NBA Champion","2026-nba-champion",[11,215,216,217,218,219],"NBA","NBA Finals","Basketball","NBA Champion","2026 NBA Playoffs",42.5,"2026-05-30T10:42:44.283Z","2026-05-30T10:40:14.868Z","2026-07-01T00:00:00.000Z","This market is to predict the winner of the 2025–26 NBA Finals.","2026 NBA Champion is a sports prediction market asking traders to forecast which team will win the 2025–26 NBA Finals. As the NBA playoffs approach their final stage, the event focuses on the expected outcome of the league’s championship series and the team that will ultimately be crowned champion. The market is active from June 23, 2025 through July 1, 2026, giving participants a long window to update their forecast as team performance, injuries, and playoff results develop.\n\nCurrent market probability stands at 42.5%, reflecting where market sentiment and odds currently place the leading outcome, though that figure can change as new information enters the market. Because this is a prediction market tied to the NBA, NBA Finals, basketball, and the 2026 NBA Playoffs, it serves as a concise event prediction for anyone tracking sports odds or championship forecasts. Traders use the market to assess who is most likely to win the title, making it a useful reference point for both search engines and readers looking for a clear, data-driven summary of the 2026 NBA Champion event.",5755415.053347007,{"id":228,"title":229,"slug":230,"category":178,"subcategory":38,"tags":231,"probability":232,"createdAt":233,"updatedAt":234,"resolutionDate":153,"description":235,"summary":236,"volume1wk":237,"featured":23},"31875","Republican Presidential Nominee 2028","republican-presidential-nominee-2028",[38,146,86,85,84,147,148,149],2.65,"2026-05-30T10:42:43.975Z","2026-06-16T10:03:36.054Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources.\n\nAny replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.","Republican Presidential Nominee 2028 is a political prediction market tracking who will win and accept the Republican Party’s nomination for U.S. president in 2028. The market resolves to Yes if the named individual becomes the official Republican nominee, based on a consensus of official Republican Party sources; if not, it resolves to No. If the party replaces its nominee before Election Day, that change does not alter the market’s resolution, which makes the event prediction especially focused on the formal nomination outcome rather than later campaign adjustments. This forecast matters because the Republican nominee will shape the early direction of the 2028 U.S. election cycle, including party positioning, primary dynamics, and broader market sentiment around the race. The prediction market is active from July 11, 2025 through November 7, 2028, giving traders a long window to assess odds as the nomination process develops. Current market probability stands at 2.75%, suggesting the market expects this outcome to remain relatively unlikely at present, though probabilities can shift with new political developments, endorsements, debates, and primary results.",4777429.576322999,{"id":239,"title":240,"slug":241,"category":178,"subcategory":38,"tags":242,"probability":40,"createdAt":244,"updatedAt":245,"resolutionDate":246,"description":247,"summary":248,"volume1wk":249,"featured":23},"371649","US x Iran diplomatic meeting by...?","us-x-iran-diplomatic-meeting-by-329",[38,33,29,243,31,36,37,39],"Vance","2026-05-30T10:42:45.013Z","2026-06-16T10:07:26.988Z","2026-04-30T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nA diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. \n\nBrief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.  \n\nThe meeting must be in-person and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.\n\nThe resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.","US x Iran diplomatic meeting by...? is a political prediction market asking whether there will be an in-person diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran by the listed deadline, 11:59 PM ET on April 30, 2026. The forecast resolves to Yes only if the meeting is deliberate, authorized, and publicly acknowledged by either government or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting; remote calls, informal contact, and chance encounters do not count. This makes the event a focused test of US-Iran diplomatic engagement rather than broader geopolitical signaling. Market sentiment in this prediction market has been heavily one-sided, with the current probability at 0%, suggesting traders see little expectation of a qualifying meeting before the end date. Because the contract includes indirect meetings through approved mediators as valid, the event prediction also reflects how negotiations may unfold beyond direct face-to-face talks. As a politics and geopolitics market, it is closely watched for signals about Iran ceasefire dynamics, U.S. foreign policy, and broader regional diplomacy.",4565895.467737994,{"id":251,"title":252,"slug":253,"category":28,"subcategory":29,"tags":254,"probability":259,"createdAt":260,"updatedAt":261,"resolutionDate":182,"description":262,"summary":263,"volume1wk":264,"featured":23},"429426","What Iranian demands will Trump agree to by May 31?","what-iranian-demands-will-trump-agree-to-by-may-31",[29,255,256,33,31,165,257,37,38,36,258],"Sanctions","toll","Enrich","Uranium",11.5,"2026-05-30T10:42:44.605Z","2026-05-30T10:37:10.758Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the United States agrees to the continued enrichment of uranium by Iran by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nContinued enrichment of uranium by Iran refers to US acceptance of the enrichment of, or the right to enrich, any quantity of uranium by Iran for any future amount of time. Agreements that include limitations, restrictions, or specified terms (e.g., caps on enrichment level, monitoring requirements) will qualify, provided the United States accepts continued enrichment.\n\nThe United States will be considered to have agreed to the continued enrichment of uranium by Iran if:\n\n- Donald Trump or another authorized representative of the Government of the United States publicly announces that they have definitively agreed to accept the continued enrichment of uranium by Iran.\n- Continued enrichment of uranium by Iran is included as part of a treaty or deal that is formally established between the United States and Iran, either through signing or other formal means.\n\nAgreement refers to an explicit acceptance, authorization or consent to the specified action. Only announcements of definitive agreement will qualify. Suggestions, negotiations, expressions of openness, or other non-definitive statements will not qualify.\n\nAny definitive agreement or commitment made before the resolution date will be considered, regardless of when or whether the specified action is begun.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Donald Trump and the US government and their official representatives; however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used to verify the details of an announcement or formal agreement.","\"What Iranian demands will Trump agree to by May 31?\" is a geopolitics prediction market asking whether the United States, under Donald Trump or another authorized representative, will definitively agree to Iran’s continued enrichment of uranium by the May 31, 2026 deadline. The event resolves \"Yes\" only if the U.S. publicly announces explicit acceptance of Iran’s right to continue enriching uranium, or if that position is formally included in a treaty or deal with Iran. General negotiations, openness, or non-definitive statements do not count. This matters because uranium enrichment remains a central issue in U.S.-Iran relations, sanctions policy, and any broader ceasefire or diplomatic agreement involving the two countries. Traders are currently assigning about an 11.5% probability to a Yes outcome, suggesting the market expects a low chance of formal U.S. agreement before the end date. As a prediction market, the listing reflects current market sentiment, odds, and event prediction around a high-stakes foreign policy decision.",3880525.7414259994,{"id":266,"title":267,"slug":268,"category":28,"subcategory":269,"tags":270,"probability":40,"createdAt":274,"updatedAt":275,"resolutionDate":276,"description":277,"summary":278,"volume1wk":279,"featured":23},"267102","Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?","kharg-island-no-longer-under-iranian-control-by-march-31","Khamenei",[269,271,272,29,273,37,165,36,33],"Iran Regime","Kharg Island","Mojtaba Khamenei","2026-05-30T10:42:44.876Z","2026-06-16T10:07:39.566Z","2026-03-31T23:55:00.000Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Kharg Island is no longer under Iranian control by March 31, 2026 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\n“No longer under the control of Iran” means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Kharg Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.\n\nTemporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.\n\nAn announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.\n\nIf control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.\n\nIf control over Kharg Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.","Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...? is a geopolitics prediction market asking whether Iran will lose primary governmental or military control of Kharg Island by March 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. The event resolves to Yes only if another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has actually established control over the island by the deadline; disputed, temporary, or partial disruptions do not count. That makes the forecast highly specific and dependent on confirmed changes in control, not just military activity, announcements, or threats.\n\nThe market matters because Kharg Island is closely tied to Iran’s strategic position in the Gulf and the broader Strait of Hormuz region. Traders are watching official government and military statements, along with credible reporting, to assess the expected outcome. At the current stage, market probability is listed at 0%, indicating no priced expectation that Iran will lose control before the resolution date. As a prediction market, it reflects event prediction and shifting market sentiment around a major geopolitical scenario involving Iran, Khamenei, and the Kharg Island area.",3743036.214033015,{"id":281,"title":282,"slug":283,"category":284,"subcategory":285,"tags":286,"probability":289,"createdAt":290,"updatedAt":291,"resolutionDate":43,"description":292,"summary":293,"volume1wk":294,"featured":23},"90177","Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...?","will-the-us-confirm-that-aliens-exist-before-2027","CULTURE","Culture",[285,38,287,288],"Science","Aliens",9.5,"2026-05-30T10:42:44.657Z","2026-06-16T10:03:58.190Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the President of the United States, any member of the Cabinet of the United States, any member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or any US federal agency definitively states that extraterrestrial life or technology exists by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.","Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...? is a culture prediction market asking whether the United States government will make a definitive public statement that extraterrestrial life or technology exists before December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. The event resolves to Yes if the President, a Cabinet member, a member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or any US federal agency explicitly confirms alien life or alien technology; otherwise it resolves to No. The market’s primary resolution source is official US government information, with credible reporting used only if needed. This makes the forecast especially relevant to traders tracking politics, science, and public disclosure claims around unidentified aerial phenomena and extraterrestrial intelligence. As of the latest update, the prediction market implies about a 14.5% probability of a Yes outcome, suggesting market sentiment still leans strongly toward No. With the start date set for November 25, 2025 and the deadline at the end of 2026, this event prediction will likely stay sensitive to government statements, agency disclosures, and major headlines over time.",3368848.001206001,{"id":296,"title":297,"slug":298,"category":178,"subcategory":38,"tags":299,"probability":305,"createdAt":306,"updatedAt":307,"resolutionDate":170,"description":308,"summary":309,"volume1wk":310,"featured":23},"372273","Where will the next US-Iran diplomatic meeting happen?","where-will-the-next-us-iran-diplomatic-meeting-happen-455",[38,300,36,301,37,29,269,33,31,302,303,243,304,39],"Foreign Policy","Nuclear","nuclear deal","Israel x Iran","Rewards 50, 4.5, 100 Deprec",3.55,"2026-05-30T10:42:48.812Z","2026-06-16T10:06:48.218Z","This market will resolve according to the country in which the next diplomatic meeting between government representatives of the United States and Iran takes place by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.\n\nA diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. \n\nBrief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.\n\nThe meeting must be in-person (including indirect meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.\n\nIf the next diplomatic meeting between government representatives of the United States and Iran takes place in any country in the Middle East or North Africa other than the listed options, this market will resolve to “Other - Middle East\u002FNorth Africa”. \n\nIf the next diplomatic meeting between government representatives of the United States and Iran takes place in any country in Europe other than the listed options, this market will resolve to “Other - Europe”.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, additional countries’ regions will be determined based on the US State Department’s regional classifications in the “Countries and Areas List” (https:\u002F\u002Fwww.state.gov\u002Fcountries-and-areas-list). Any country classified as part of “Europe and Eurasia” will be considered to be in Europe. Any country classified as part of “Near East (Middle East and North Africa)” will be considered to be in the Middle East.\n\nIf the next diplomatic meeting between government representatives of the United States and Iran takes place in any unlisted country which is not classified in either of the specified regions, this market will resolve to “Other”.\n\nIf no qualifying meeting takes place by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Meeting by June 30”.\n\nIf a qualifying meeting occurs in more than one country, resolution will be based on where the first qualifying diplomatic session takes place.\n\nThe resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.","“Where will the next US-Iran diplomatic meeting happen?” is a Politics prediction market that asks traders to forecast the country hosting the next in-person diplomatic meeting between government representatives of the United States and Iran. The market resolves based on the first qualifying session held by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, with official government acknowledgments or credible media reporting used for resolution.\n\nThe event matters because any US-Iran meeting can signal movement on foreign policy, nuclear negotiations, regional security, or broader geopolitical tensions involving Iran, Israel, and Middle East diplomacy. The rules also allow indirect meetings through authorized mediators, while remote calls, casual encounters, or unofficial talks do not count. If no qualifying meeting occurs by the deadline, the outcome resolves to “No Meeting by June 30.”\n\nCurrent market probability is about 35.75%, suggesting traders see a meeting in one of the listed locations as possible but far from certain. The prediction market’s odds and sentiment may continue to shift as diplomatic developments emerge over the event window, which runs from April 12, 2026 through June 30, 2026.",3221779.0257319957,{"id":312,"title":313,"slug":314,"category":178,"subcategory":86,"tags":315,"probability":90,"createdAt":319,"updatedAt":320,"resolutionDate":321,"description":322,"summary":323,"volume1wk":324,"featured":23},"57096","California Governor Election Winner","california-governor-election-2026",[86,146,38,316,317,318],"Governor midterms","California Midterm","California Governor","2026-05-30T10:42:44.509Z","2026-06-16T10:02:41.330Z","2026-11-03T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to according to the candidate who wins the 2026 California gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026.\n\nIf the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.","California Governor Election Winner is a political prediction market forecasting who will win the 2026 California gubernatorial election, currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Traders in this election market are weighing the expected outcome of the governor race in one of the country’s most important states, with implications for California politics and broader U.S. election sentiment. The market will resolve to the candidate who wins the election, using Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC race calls, or official certification if those outlets do not all call the race for the same candidate. If the result is still unconfirmed by July 31, 2027, it will resolve to “Other.” Current market probability is about 25%, indicating that traders are assigning a modest chance to the leading outcome reflected in the market at this time. The market opened on October 9, 2025 and remains active through the election date, making it a closely watched event prediction for California Governor, Elections, and U.S. political forecast tracking.",2565135.4651909997,{"id":326,"title":327,"slug":328,"category":28,"subcategory":165,"tags":329,"probability":331,"createdAt":332,"updatedAt":333,"resolutionDate":170,"description":334,"summary":335,"volume1wk":336,"featured":23},"509893","What Iranian demands will Trump agree to by June 30?","what-iranian-demands-will-trump-agree-to-by-june-30",[165,135,37,29,38,33,258,31,36,330],"Negotiation Topics",35.5,"2026-05-30T10:42:53.453Z","2026-06-16T10:07:35.294Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the United States agrees to the continued enrichment of uranium by Iran by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nContinued enrichment of uranium by Iran refers to US acceptance of the enrichment of, or the right to enrich, any quantity of uranium by Iran for any future amount of time. Agreements that include limitations, restrictions, or specified terms (e.g., caps on enrichment level, monitoring requirements) will qualify, provided the United States accepts continued enrichment.\n\nThe United States will be considered to have agreed to the continued enrichment of uranium by Iran if:\n\n- Donald Trump or another authorized representative of the Government of the United States publicly announces that they have definitively agreed to accept the continued enrichment of uranium by Iran.\n- Continued enrichment of uranium by Iran is included as part of a treaty or deal that is formally established between the United States and Iran, either through signing or other formal means.\n\nAgreement refers to an explicit acceptance, authorization or consent to the specified action. Only announcements of definitive agreement will qualify. Suggestions, negotiations, expressions of openness, or other non-definitive statements will not qualify.\n\nAny definitive agreement or commitment made before the resolution date will be considered, regardless of when or whether the specified action is begun.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Donald Trump and the US government and their official representatives; however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used to verify the details of an announcement or formal agreement.","What Iranian demands will Trump agree to by June 30? is a geopolitics prediction market centered on whether the United States, under Donald Trump or another authorized representative, will definitively agree to Iran’s continued enrichment of uranium by the June 30, 2026 deadline. The market resolves to Yes only if there is an explicit public announcement or a formally established US-Iran deal that accepts continued uranium enrichment, even if the agreement includes limits, monitoring, or other conditions. Mere negotiations or expressions of openness do not count. This makes the forecast a focused test of diplomatic progress between the US and Iran, with implications for the Strait of Hormuz, oil markets, and broader regional security. Traders are currently assigning about a 33.5% probability to the expected outcome, indicating market sentiment leans against a definitive agreement but leaves meaningful room for an event prediction to resolve Yes before the end date. Because resolution depends on official statements or credible reporting of a formal deal, the market will likely move on any substantive US-Iran announcement before June 30.",2347781.3282119986,{"id":338,"title":339,"slug":340,"category":28,"subcategory":29,"tags":341,"probability":342,"createdAt":343,"updatedAt":344,"resolutionDate":345,"description":346,"summary":347,"volume1wk":348,"featured":23},"574642","Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by...?","trump-announces-us-x-iran-ceasefire-over-byptptpt-20260607232555290",[29,37,191,31,33],5.15,"2026-06-16T10:07:52.961Z","2026-06-16T10:05:55.975Z","2026-06-30T19:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if President Trump, the US government, or the US military publicly and officially announces that no ceasefire between the United States and Iran is in effect between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nQualifying statements must clearly indicate that there is no longer any US-Iran ceasefire commitment to refrain from military hostilities in effect, including statements that the US is no longer committed to such an agreement. The expiration of a prior agreed ceasefire period without  extension will not alone qualify. \n\nAnnouncements of a new agreement (e.g, a broader peace framework or ceasefire extension) that supersedes the initial ceasefire agreement while maintaining a mutual commitment to a halt in direct military engagement between the United States and Iran will not qualify. \n\nStatements that merely reference violations, breaches, or non-compliance with the ceasefire will not alone qualify.\n\nInformal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks do not qualify.\n\nWritten public statements from Donald Trump (e.g., posts from his personal Truth Social account) will qualify. Videos posted on his social media accounts will also qualify for a \"Yes\" resolution.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Donald Trump, the US government and the US military; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.\n\nNote: this market will resolve solely based on whether a qualifying announcement is made within the specified timeframe. Whether the ceasefire actually ends in practice or whether hostilities resume will not be considered.","\"Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by...?\" is a geopolitics prediction market asking whether President Trump, the US government, or the US military will publicly and officially state that no ceasefire between the United States and Iran is in effect by the market deadline of 11:59 PM ET on June 30, 2026. The forecast is narrowly focused on a qualifying announcement, not on whether hostilities actually resume or whether a prior ceasefire simply expires. Traders are watching for an official statement from Donald Trump, a public US government or military declaration, or other credible reporting that clearly says the ceasefire commitment has ended. References to violations, breaches, leaks, or unnamed sources do not count. Current market probability is about 5.15%, suggesting sentiment leans strongly toward a No resolution. As a prediction market event in the Iran and Middle East category, it reflects broader uncertainty around US-Iran relations, ceasefire language, and the durability of any diplomatic or military restraint during the forecast window, which runs from June 9, 2026 through the June 30 deadline.",2056823.9396519987,{"id":350,"title":351,"slug":352,"category":178,"subcategory":353,"tags":354,"probability":40,"createdAt":359,"updatedAt":360,"resolutionDate":361,"description":362,"summary":363,"volume1wk":364,"featured":23},"17725","Starmer out by...?","starmer-out-in-2025","Starmer",[353,355,356,357,38,358],"UK","keir","Grooming Gangs","World","2026-05-30T10:42:45.616Z","2026-06-16T10:02:41.673Z","2025-12-31T12:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if Keir Starmer ceases to be the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom for any period of time between February 2 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn announcement of Keir Starmer's resignation\u002Fremoval before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to \"Yes\", regardless of when the announced resignation\u002Fremoval goes into effect.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the government of the UK, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.","Starmer out by...? is a political prediction market on whether Keir Starmer will cease to be Prime Minister of the United Kingdom at any point between February 2 and December 31, 2025. The forecast resolves to “Yes” if Starmer leaves office for any period during that window, and it can also resolve early if there is an official resignation or removal announcement before the end date. Resolution will rely on the UK government, with credible reporting also accepted. As a UK politics event, this market draws attention to leadership stability, cabinet confidence, and the potential for a change in government during a major electoral cycle. The current market probability is 0%, which suggests traders are assigning very low odds to a departure in the resolution period, though prediction market sentiment can change quickly as political conditions evolve. The event starts on February 3, 2025 and runs through December 31, 2025, making it a year-long political forecast for traders following Starmer, UK politics, and event prediction markets.",1650200.979711,{"id":366,"title":367,"slug":368,"category":369,"subcategory":370,"tags":371,"probability":375,"createdAt":376,"updatedAt":377,"resolutionDate":170,"description":378,"summary":379,"volume1wk":380,"featured":23},"57711","Largest Company end of June?","largest-company-end-of-june-712","TECH","AI",[370,372,373,57,374,113,128],"Tech","Big Tech","DeepSeek",94.75,"2026-05-30T10:42:45.353Z","2026-06-16T10:02:41.401Z","This market will resolve to the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30, 2026, as of market close.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.","Largest Company end of June? is a technology prediction market asking which company will be the world’s largest by market capitalization at the June 30, 2026 market close. The forecast focuses on a single outcome: identifying the top-valued public company based on credible reporting at the deadline, rather than projecting long-term business performance. Because market cap rankings can shift quickly with earnings, AI sentiment, and broader Big Tech moves, the event draws interest from traders tracking technology, AI, business, and finance trends.\n\nAs of the latest market data, the probability for this outcome is around 89%, indicating strong market sentiment behind the leading expected result, though prediction market odds can still change before resolution. The market opened on October 10, 2025 and resolves on June 30, 2026, making it a medium-term event prediction with a clear end date. Related keywords such as largest company, technology forecast, and technology probability reflect the market’s focus on Big Tech competition and market-cap leadership.",1368463.9907120005,{"id":382,"title":383,"slug":384,"category":28,"subcategory":37,"tags":385,"probability":40,"createdAt":386,"updatedAt":387,"resolutionDate":43,"description":388,"summary":389,"volume1wk":390,"featured":23},"310530","Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?","iran-agrees-to-surrender-enriched-uranium-stockpile-by",[37,31,191,33,38,36,29,301,330],"2026-05-30T10:42:44.555Z","2026-06-16T10:02:41.231Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Iran publicly agrees to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn official pledge by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.\n\nAn agreement by Iran to surrender any amount of its enriched uranium stockpile will count.\n\nTo qualify, Iran must publicly agree that its enriched uranium stockpile, or any portion thereof, will be transferred, shipped, or placed under the custody or control of any entity outside of Iran and its influence, excluding non-state armed groups or Iranian-aligned organizations (such as Hezbollah, the Houthis, or similar actors).\n\nAny agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if\u002Fwhen the agreement goes into effect.\n\nAn agreement by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.\n\nAgreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.","Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...? is a geopolitics prediction market focused on whether Iran will publicly agree to transfer custody of any portion of its enriched uranium stockpile outside Iran by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The event matters because any such pledge would signal a major shift in U.S. x Iran nuclear diplomacy and broader Middle East security negotiations. \n\nFor this market to resolve to Yes, Iran must make a public agreement or pledge before the deadline, whether unilaterally or as part of a deal with the U.S. or Israel. The forecast does not require a finalized peace agreement, but it does require more than a promise to merely limit enrichment levels. Traders are specifically watching for confirmation that the stockpile, or any qualifying portion of it, will be transferred, shipped, or placed under the control of an entity outside Iran and its influence. \n\nCurrent market probability is 0%, indicating extremely low expected odds at this stage, though prediction market sentiment can shift quickly on credible reporting or diplomatic developments. The primary resolution source is consensus credible reporting.",1350422.5297449993,{"id":392,"title":393,"slug":394,"category":51,"subcategory":372,"tags":395,"probability":401,"createdAt":402,"updatedAt":403,"resolutionDate":404,"description":405,"summary":406,"volume1wk":407,"featured":23},"102007","SpaceX IPO closing market cap above ___ ?","spacex-ipo-closing-market-cap-above",[372,373,396,397,398,399,400],"Elon Musk","IPO","SpaceX","IPOs","Climate & Science",98.65,"2026-05-30T10:42:46.312Z","2026-05-30T10:34:08.685Z","2027-12-31T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if the official closing price for SpaceX’s market capitalization on its first trading day is above the value specified in the title. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.\n\nIf no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nMarket capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.\n\nResolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.\n\nIn the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on SpaceX’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading.","SpaceX IPO closing market cap above ___ ? is a finance prediction market asking whether SpaceX’s official market capitalization on its first trading day will finish above the threshold named in the title. The event is tied to a potential SpaceX IPO and will resolve “Yes” only if the company’s closing price on day one, multiplied by outstanding shares, produces a market cap above that level; otherwise it resolves “No.” If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, the market resolves to “No.”\n\nThis event matters because SpaceX is one of the most closely watched private technology companies, and any public listing would be a major benchmark for valuation in the tech and IPO markets. Current market sentiment is strongly tilted toward a “Yes” outcome, with traders pricing the forecast probability at 98.65%. That implies the market expects the first-day valuation to clear the stated threshold, though the outcome still depends on an actual IPO and the official closing price on the primary exchange’s listing page. The prediction market starts on December 11, 2025 and remains open through the 2027 deadline.",1314816.7019979998,{"id":409,"title":410,"slug":411,"category":82,"subcategory":38,"tags":412,"probability":416,"createdAt":417,"updatedAt":418,"resolutionDate":419,"description":420,"summary":421,"volume1wk":422,"featured":23},"34584","Colombia Presidential Election","colombia-presidential-election",[38,84,86,358,85,413,414,89,415],"Colombia Election","Colombia","Macro Election 1",0.05,"2026-05-30T10:42:45.106Z","2026-06-16T10:05:17.604Z","2026-06-21T14:00:00.000Z","Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. \n\nThis market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThis market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https:\u002F\u002Fregistraduria.gov.co).","The Colombia Presidential Election prediction market tracks who will win Colombia’s 2026 presidential race, including the possibility of a second round if no candidate wins more than 50% of valid votes in the first round. The first round is scheduled for May 31, 2026, with a runoff, if needed, on June 21, 2026. If the result is still unresolved by December 31, 2026, the market is set to resolve to Other. This event matters because Colombia’s next president will shape national politics, policy direction, and the country’s response to major domestic and regional issues. The forecast is based on credible election reporting and, where necessary, the official results from Colombia’s National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil). As of the latest market data, traders assign roughly a 5% probability to the current leading outcome, signaling that market sentiment remains highly uncertain. For prediction market participants, this is a major election forecast with active odds, liquidity, and sustained interest across global elections and politics categories.",1044563.6338270012,{"id":424,"title":425,"slug":426,"category":427,"subcategory":428,"tags":429,"probability":432,"createdAt":433,"updatedAt":434,"resolutionDate":43,"description":435,"summary":436,"volume1wk":437,"featured":23},"448037","Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?","hantavirus-pandemic-in-2026","WEATHER","Weather",[428,430,431],"Pandemics","Hantavirus",3.8,"2026-05-30T10:42:46.620Z","2026-06-16T10:02:41.521Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Hantavirus, Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome (HPS), Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome (HFRS), or a Hantavirus-related outbreak as a \"pandemic\" in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nAn explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a \"pandemic.\" A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.","\"Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?\" is a prediction market asking whether the World Health Organization will explicitly describe Hantavirus, Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome (HPS), Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome (HFRS), or a related outbreak as a \"pandemic\" in an official public communication before December 31, 2026. The market is resolved using WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications, and a PHEIC by itself does not count unless the WHO also uses the word pandemic. This makes the event a narrow forecast on official public-health language rather than on the severity of disease alone. Traders are effectively pricing the odds that a WHO communication will meet the market’s exact wording criteria. Current market probability is about 6.25%, suggesting low expected odds that the condition will be met. The event opened on May 4, 2026 and runs through the end of 2026, giving participants a fixed deadline for the forecasted outcome. Because resolution depends on precise WHO wording, market sentiment may shift quickly if new hantavirus outbreaks, WHO briefings, or related reports draw international attention.",794518.5709409997,{"id":439,"title":440,"slug":441,"category":28,"subcategory":191,"tags":442,"probability":443,"createdAt":444,"updatedAt":445,"resolutionDate":182,"description":446,"summary":447,"volume1wk":448,"featured":23},"429456","Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?","iran-agrees-to-end-enrichment-of-uranium-by-may-31-945",[191,33,36,37,29],3.1,"2026-05-30T10:42:47.765Z","2026-05-30T10:37:12.706Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.\n\nAny agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if\u002Fwhen the agreement goes into effect.\n\nAn agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.\n\nAn agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. \n\nAgreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. ","Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31? is a geopolitics prediction market in the Middle East focused on whether Iran will publicly commit to ending all uranium enrichment by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The forecast resolves to Yes if Iran makes a qualifying public pledge by the deadline, either unilaterally or as part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel; a temporary commitment or a pledge tied to a broader peace process also counts. By contrast, mere limits on enrichment levels do not qualify, which makes the wording of any announcement critical to the event prediction.\n\nThis market matters because uranium enrichment is central to U.S.-Iran tensions, regional security, and wider nonproliferation efforts. As a prediction market, it reflects trader sentiment on the odds of a diplomatic breakthrough before the end date. The current market probability is about 3.1%, suggesting traders see a Yes outcome as unlikely, though not impossible. The market’s resolution will depend on credible reporting and any official Iranian statement made before the deadline.",773488.0177810004,{"id":450,"title":451,"slug":452,"category":178,"subcategory":31,"tags":453,"probability":455,"createdAt":456,"updatedAt":457,"resolutionDate":458,"description":459,"summary":460,"volume1wk":461,"featured":23},"585449","Who will sign U.S. x Iran deal?","who-will-sign-uptspt-x-iran-deal-20260612002238373",[31,39,454,29,36,38],"geopolitcs",10.5,"2026-06-16T10:07:56.091Z","2026-06-16T10:06:50.966Z","2026-08-01T03:59:00.000Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual signs a written agreement to which both the United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran are parties by July 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nA qualifying agreement must be signed by the listed individual acting in an official capacity.\n\nThe United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran must both be parties to the agreement; however, it is not required that representatives of either or both countries sign the agreement in order for it to qualify.\n\nThe listed individual may sign on behalf of either party, a third-party state, an international organization, or any other party to the agreement.\n\nBoth physical signatures and officially issued electronic signatures will qualify as signing.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant governments and parties to the agreement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.","Who will sign U.S. x Iran deal? is a political prediction market focused on whether a named individual will sign a written agreement involving both the United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran by July 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. The market resolves Yes only if the listed person signs the deal in an official capacity, whether by physical or officially issued electronic signature, and the agreement includes both countries as parties. The outcome does not require representatives of the U.S. or Iran to be the signatories, as long as the agreement qualifies under the rules. This event sits within the Politics category and Trump subcategory, reflecting broader market attention on U.S.-Iran diplomacy, peace deal prospects, and geopolitical negotiations. Current market probability is about 10.5%, indicating traders assign a relatively low but non-zero chance of a qualifying signature before the deadline. As an event prediction, it will likely draw market sentiment from official government statements and credible reporting on diplomatic progress, making it relevant for forecast tracking and political odds analysis.",532792.541632,{"id":463,"title":464,"slug":465,"category":51,"subcategory":372,"tags":466,"probability":40,"createdAt":468,"updatedAt":469,"resolutionDate":43,"description":470,"summary":471,"volume1wk":472,"featured":23},"68543","OpenAI IPO by...?","openai-ipo-by",[372,399,373,370,128,113,397,467],"OpenAI IPO","2026-05-30T10:42:54.796Z","2026-06-16T10:07:36.555Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by the listed date ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.\n\nIf OpenAI is acquired by another company that is already public, this market will immediately resolve to \"No.\"\n\nThe resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.","OpenAI IPO by...? is a finance prediction market tracking whether OpenAI will complete an initial public offering by the listed deadline. The market resolves to Yes only if official company announcements or credible news sources confirm that OpenAI has gone public on a recognized stock exchange; if OpenAI is acquired by another public company, it resolves to No. As a result, traders are forecasting not just an IPO, but the broader corporate path OpenAI may take as one of the most closely watched AI and Big Tech companies. The event runs through the listed end date of 2026-12-31 ET, making it a long-dated event prediction with implications for tech, IPO, and business market sentiment. Current market probability is 0%, indicating that traders are not assigning meaningful odds to an OpenAI IPO by the deadline at this time. For search and indexing, this OpenAI IPO market sits at the intersection of finance, AI, and tech IPO forecasting, and it reflects how prediction markets price expectations around major corporate milestones.",392886.4058449999,{"id":474,"title":475,"slug":476,"category":369,"subcategory":477,"tags":478,"probability":40,"createdAt":481,"updatedAt":482,"resolutionDate":483,"description":484,"summary":485,"volume1wk":486,"featured":23},"591694","Claude Fable 5 restored for US customers by…?","claude-fable-5-restored-for-us-customers-by-20260613193753196","Claude",[477,373,479,480,370,372,31],"anthropic","Claude Mythos","2026-06-16T10:07:57.563Z","2026-06-16T10:05:16.890Z","2026-07-02T03:59:00.000Z","On June 9, 2026, Anthropic released the AI model “Claude Fable 5” to the general public. On June 12, 2026, Anthropic suspended access to the specified model in response to a directive from the US government.\n\nThis market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Anthropic restores access to “Claude Fable 5,” also known as “Claude Mythos,” or a model confirmed to be the same model to US customers by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nA qualifying model must be named \"Claude Fable 5” or “Claude Mythos” (e.g., Claude Mythos 1, Claude Mythos 5, Claude Mythos X, would count), or be confirmed by Anthropic or by a consensus of credible reporting to be the same model as released by Anthropic on June 9, 2026.\n\nProducts labeled as Claude Haiku, Sonnet, and Opus 4.7\u002F5.0 or similar will not count for this market's resolution unless they are confirmed to be the same model released by Anthropic on June 9, 2026.\n\nFor this market to resolve to \"Yes,\" the qualifying model (as defined above) must be restored to public accessibility within the United States, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The restoration must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to US customers. If an otherwise qualifying restoration restricts access to certain customers based on nationality, whether geographically inside or outside of the US, that restoration will still qualify.\n\nIf a qualifying model is made publicly accessible and labeled with the relevant version name within the company’s official website, this will qualify as “publicly announced”. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public under the rules will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.","Claude Fable 5 restored for US customers by…? is a technology prediction market asking whether Anthropic will restore public access to its AI model, also referred to as Claude Mythos, for customers in the United States by July 2, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. The market resolves to Yes only if Anthropic publicly announces and restores access to a qualifying version of the same model released on June 9, 2026, with access available through public channels such as an open beta or rolling waitlist. Private or closed access does not count. \n\nThe event matters because it tracks how Anthropic responds after suspending access on June 12, 2026 following a US government directive, making it a closely watched AI and Big Tech policy story. Traders are currently assigning a 0% probability, suggesting the market expects no restoration before the deadline, though prediction market odds can shift quickly as new official information or credible reporting emerges. This forecast sits at the intersection of AI product availability, US regulatory pressure, and market sentiment around Anthropic’s Claude lineup.",360240.44332599995,{"id":488,"title":489,"slug":490,"category":28,"subcategory":33,"tags":491,"probability":492,"createdAt":493,"updatedAt":494,"resolutionDate":170,"description":495,"summary":496,"volume1wk":497,"featured":23},"530966","Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?","iran-agrees-to-unrestricted-shipping-through-hormuz-by-june-30",[33,29,37,165,36,38,330],30.5,"2026-05-30T10:43:24.337Z","2026-06-16T10:04:22.931Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Iran publicly agrees to allow unrestricted commercial navigation of the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nIran allowing unrestricted commercial navigation of the Strait of Hormuz refers to a public agreement by Iran that commercial vessels may transit the Strait of Hormuz without Iranian authorization\u002Fpermission, payment of fees to Iran, or other Iran-imposed restrictions. A public agreement that all restrictions imposed on commercial vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz by Iran as part of the US-Iran conflict which began on February 28, 2026, will be definitively lifted, without replacement by new restrictions, will qualify.\n\nA qualifying agreement must clearly indicate that Iran will not impose restrictions on commercial transit through the Strait of Hormuz. General statements about the strait being “open”, de-escalation, security, increased transit in the Strait, or stability in the region, which do not clearly indicate that Iran will allow unrestricted commercial transit through the Strait of Hormuz, will not qualify.\n\nAn official pledge by Iran to allow unrestricted commercial navigation of the Strait of Hormuz will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.\n\nAny agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if\u002Fwhen the agreement goes into effect.\n\nAn agreement by Iran to allow unrestricted commercial navigation of the Strait of Hormuz as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.\n\nThe primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the government of Iran and a consensus of credible reporting.","Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? is a geopolitics prediction market focused on whether Iran will publicly agree to allow unrestricted commercial navigation through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The event resolves to Yes only if Iran clearly states that commercial vessels may transit without Iranian authorization, fees, or other restrictions, or if existing Iran-imposed limits tied to the US-Iran conflict are definitively lifted without replacement. Broad statements about the strait being open, stable, or secure do not qualify.\n\nThis forecast matters because the Strait of Hormuz is a critical global shipping route, and any change in Iranian policy could affect regional tensions, U.S. x Iran relations, and broader Middle East market sentiment. Traders in this prediction market are effectively pricing the chance of a public Iranian pledge or agreement before the deadline. As of now, the market implies about a 31% probability of a Yes outcome, suggesting modest but not dominant expectations for unrestricted passage to be formally recognized before the end date. The event is active from May 27, 2026 through June 30, 2026, and resolution will depend on official Iranian statements and credible reporting.",358190.942098,{"id":499,"title":500,"slug":501,"category":82,"subcategory":146,"tags":502,"probability":74,"createdAt":505,"updatedAt":506,"resolutionDate":321,"description":507,"summary":508,"volume1wk":509,"featured":23},"32225","Which party will win the House in 2026?","which-party-will-win-the-house-in-2026",[146,38,503,85,86,84,147,504,149,89],"Midterms","Parent For Derivative","2026-05-30T10:42:50.365Z","2026-06-16T10:05:27.825Z","This market will resolve according to the party that controls the House of Representatives following the 2026 U.S. House elections scheduled for November 3, 2026.\n\nHouse control is defined as having more than half of the voting members of the U.S. House of Representatives.\n\nIf the outcome of this election is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will remain open until the Speaker of the House is selected following the 2026 U.S. general election, at which point it will resolve to the party the Speaker is affiliated with at the time of their election to that position. If the elected Speaker does not caucus with any listed party this market will resolve “Other”.\n\nDetermination of which party controls the House after the 2026 U.S. House elections will be based on a consensus of credible reporting, or if there is ambiguity, final federal and\u002For state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2026 election results.","Which party will win the House in 2026? is a U.S. election prediction market focused on control of the House of Representatives after the November 3, 2026 midterm elections. The forecast asks traders to assess which party will hold a majority of voting members, with the market using credible reporting and, if needed, final election certification or the House Speaker selection to determine the result. If the Speaker belongs to a listed party, that affiliation will guide resolution; otherwise the outcome resolves to Other. This makes the event important not only for election watchers, but also for anyone tracking the balance of power in Congress, the broader U.S. political landscape, and 2026 election odds. The market is active from July 11, 2025 through election day, and it has drawn strong interest, with significant liquidity and open interest indicating meaningful market sentiment. While no single probability figure is provided here, traders are actively pricing the expected outcome through the prediction market, making it a useful gauge of House control forecasts ahead of the 2026 U.S. House elections.",236710.6576330002,{"id":511,"title":512,"slug":513,"category":51,"subcategory":128,"tags":514,"probability":519,"createdAt":520,"updatedAt":521,"resolutionDate":522,"description":523,"summary":524,"volume1wk":525,"featured":23},"500753","Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?","will-anthropics-valuation-hit-by-december-31",[128,515,516,479,517,372,477,373,370,518],"Privates","llm","Dario Amodei","Anthropic IPO",9,"2026-05-30T10:42:48.493Z","2026-06-16T10:02:41.241Z","2027-01-01T12:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Anthropic's private market valuation, as measured by the NPM Price reported by Nasdaq Private Market, LLC (NPM) for any date between market creation and December 31, 2026, reaches or exceeds the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nNPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day.\n\nIf NPM has not published relevant data for all business dates in the specified period by 1:00 PM ET on January 1, 2027, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on January 4, 2027. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the data available.\n\nIf NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published for the period prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as any applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing.\n\nIf the company completes an IPO or direct listing before the end of the specified period, this market will consider, in addition to the relevant NPM valuations published between market creation and the IPO or direct listing date, the valuation implied by the official IPO or direct listing price, and the company's public market capitalization between the IPO or direct listing date and the end of the specified period.\n\nPublic market capitalization will be determined using the highest\u002Flowest official regular-hours trading price published for the company's primary listed common equity on its primary exchange for any trading day during the specified period, multiplied by the company's total outstanding common shares at the relevant time.\n\nIf the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.\n\nIf the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, only NPM valuations and applicable public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is NPM data published here: (https:\u002F\u002Ffe.secondmarket.com\u002Fcompanies\u002Fcompany-3e197763-4ff8-4d8c-bd1f-cc2792937757\u002Fdata?return_url=https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket.com\u002Ffinance\u002Fprivates). The resolution source for any period following an IPO, direct listing, or relevant corporate action, will be official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.\n\nRevisions to previously published NPM data made after their initial release will not be considered, unless made to correct clearly erroneous data.","Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31? is a finance prediction market tracking whether Anthropic’s private company valuation will reach or exceed the listed threshold by the end of 2026. The market resolves based on Nasdaq Private Market (NPM) Price data, with daily updates published for trading days only, and it can also account for an IPO, direct listing, or other public-market valuation signals if those occur before the deadline. In plain terms, traders are forecasting the expected outcome for Anthropic’s valuation using private-market and, if applicable, public-market data. The event matters because Anthropic is one of the most closely watched AI companies, alongside references in the market to Claude, Dario Amodei, and the broader private tech and Big Tech landscape. Current market probability is about 9.5%, suggesting sentiment leans toward the valuation not reaching the target, though prediction market odds can change as new data arrives. The market starts on May 19, 2026 and is scheduled to close on January 1, 2027, with the resolution window extending briefly if final NPM data is delayed.",192762.68417000005,{"id":527,"title":528,"slug":529,"category":51,"subcategory":530,"tags":531,"probability":192,"createdAt":532,"updatedAt":533,"resolutionDate":43,"description":534,"summary":535,"volume1wk":536,"featured":23},"447964","Will GameStop acquire eBay?","will-gamestop-acquire-ebay","Acquisitions",[530,128],"2026-05-30T10:43:00.923Z","2026-06-16T10:02:41.693Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if it is officially announced that eBay will be, has been, or is being acquired by or merged with GameStop, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nMergers or acquisitions involving eBay or its parent company, eBay Inc., and GameStop or its parent company (if applicable), will qualify.\n\nAn announcement by eBay or GameStop within this market's timeframe will qualify for a \"Yes\" resolution, regardless of whether or when the announced acquisition\u002Fmerger actually occurs.\n\nAnnouncements of partial sales may count, as long as GameStop acquires a controlling interest in eBay. A “controlling interest” refers to a change in ownership sufficient to control the company’s strategic decisions (typically more than 50% of equity, or equivalent control via voting and governance rights). Transactions or investments that do not result in a transfer of controlling interest will not count.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from eBay and GameStop; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.","Will GameStop acquire eBay? is a finance prediction market in the Acquisitions category that asks whether GameStop will officially announce an acquisition of eBay, or a merger involving the two companies, by December 31, 2026. The market resolves to Yes if an official announcement confirms that eBay is being acquired by, or merged with, GameStop or a relevant parent company; it can also resolve Yes if GameStop gains a controlling interest through a partial sale or similar transaction. Deals that do not transfer control do not qualify.\n\nThis event matters because it tracks a potential large-cap technology and retail transaction involving GameStop and eBay Inc., two widely recognized public companies. For traders, the forecast centers on whether market sentiment supports a takeover announcement within the stated timeframe. As of the latest update, the market probability is 15.5%, indicating relatively low odds that the expected outcome will be a confirmed acquisition or merger before the deadline. The prediction market remains active through the end of 2026, with official company statements and credible reporting serving as the primary resolution sources.",98479.773593,{"id":538,"title":539,"slug":540,"category":82,"subcategory":146,"tags":541,"probability":544,"createdAt":545,"updatedAt":546,"resolutionDate":321,"description":547,"summary":548,"volume1wk":549,"featured":23},"57650","Maine Senate Election Winner","maine-senate-election-winner",[146,38,503,86,542,543],"Senate midterms","Maine Midterm",66.5,"2026-05-30T10:43:04.717Z","2026-06-16T10:02:41.604Z","This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Maine U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.\n\nA candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.\n\nCandidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.","Maine Senate Election Winner is an election prediction market focused on the outcome of the 2026 midterm Maine U.S. Senate election, including any run-offs. Traders are forecasting which candidate will be declared the winner, with the market resolving to the candidate called by the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC once all three sources agree; if they do not, official certification will determine the result. The forecast reflects a classic U.S. election event in the Elections category, with relevance for Senate midterms, Maine politics, and broader market sentiment around the state’s general election. Current market probability places the leading outcome at about 69%, indicating traders see that result as favored but not assured. The event is active now and runs through the election period, with a scheduled end date of November 3, 2026. As with any election odds market, the expected outcome may change as campaigns develop, polling shifts, and new information affects trader expectations. This listing is useful for tracking the election forecast, probability, and live market sentiment around the Maine Senate race.",91129.390209,{"id":551,"title":552,"slug":553,"category":369,"subcategory":128,"tags":554,"probability":558,"createdAt":559,"updatedAt":560,"resolutionDate":522,"description":561,"summary":562,"volume1wk":563,"featured":23},"500775","Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?","will-openais-valuation-hit-by-december-31",[128,515,516,372,373,370,555,556,557,467],"chatgpt","sam altman","OpenAI",7.5,"2026-05-30T10:42:56.965Z","2026-06-16T10:07:39.837Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if OpenAI's private market valuation, as measured by the NPM Price reported by Nasdaq Private Market, LLC (NPM) for any date between market creation and December 31, 2026, reaches or exceeds the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nNPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day.\n\nIf NPM has not published relevant data for all business dates in the specified period by 1:00 PM ET on January 1, 2027, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on January 4, 2027. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the data available.\n\nIf NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published for the period prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as any applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing. \n\nIf the company completes an IPO or direct listing before the end of the specified period, this market will consider, in addition to the relevant NPM valuations published between market creation and the IPO or direct listing date, the valuation implied by the official IPO or direct listing price, and the company's public market capitalization between the IPO or direct listing date and the end of the specified period.\n\nPublic market capitalization will be determined using the highest\u002Flowest official regular-hours trading price published for the company's primary listed common equity on its primary exchange for any trading day during the specified period, multiplied by the company's total outstanding common shares at the relevant time.\n\nIf the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.\n\nIf the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, only NPM valuations and applicable public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is NPM data published here (https:\u002F\u002Ffe.secondmarket.com\u002Fcompanies\u002Fcompany-30839e0b-2730-4495-839f-1bf638fa9cca\u002Fdata?return_url=https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket.com\u002Ffinance\u002Fprivates). The resolution source for any period following an IPO, direct listing, or relevant corporate action, will be official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.\n\nRevisions to previously published NPM data made after their initial release will not be considered, unless made to correct clearly erroneous data.","Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31? is a tech finance prediction market focused on whether OpenAI’s private-market valuation will reach or exceed the listed threshold by the end of 2026. The event is resolved using Nasdaq Private Market (NPM) price data, with the outcome turning on whether OpenAI’s reported private valuation hits the target on any trading day between market creation and December 31, 2026. If OpenAI goes public before then, the market also factors in the IPO or direct listing price and, afterward, public market capitalization based on official trading data and share counts. This forecast matters because OpenAI is one of the most closely watched AI companies, and its valuation reflects broader market sentiment around artificial intelligence, large language models, and the tech sector. As of the latest market data, traders assign about a 6.5% probability to a yes outcome, suggesting relatively low odds that the threshold will be reached within the timeframe. The market opens on May 19, 2026 and is scheduled to close on January 1, 2027, with a possible extension if required by delayed NPM reporting.",72182.387805,{"id":565,"title":566,"slug":567,"category":178,"subcategory":38,"tags":568,"probability":571,"createdAt":572,"updatedAt":573,"resolutionDate":170,"description":574,"summary":575,"volume1wk":576,"featured":23},"143567","Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by...?","miguel-daz-canel-out-as-leader-of-cuba-by-june-30",[38,37,569,31,570],"Venezuela","Cuba",58,"2026-05-30T10:43:02.131Z","2026-06-16T10:02:41.579Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Cuba’s current leader, Miguel Díaz-Canel, is removed from power for any length of time by the listed date, ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\". \n\nFor the purposes of this market, Díaz-Canel will be considered to be removed from power if he resigns, is detained, or otherwise ceases to hold (or is publicly reported to be unable to perform the duties of) the office of First Secretary of the Communist Party of Cuba, which is widely regarded as Cuba’s top political post, within this market’s timeframe. \n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.","Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by...? is a political prediction market asking whether Cuba’s current leader will be removed from power for any length of time by June 30, 2026 ET. The market resolves to Yes if Díaz-Canel resigns, is detained, or otherwise ceases to hold — or is publicly reported unable to perform the duties of — the office of First Secretary of the Communist Party of Cuba, widely viewed as Cuba’s top political post. Otherwise, it resolves to No. This makes the event relevant to geopolitics and broader Cuba politics, as any change in leadership would be a significant development for the island’s domestic order and foreign relations.\n\nCurrent market probability is about 64%, suggesting traders see a moderate chance of this outcome within the forecast window. That level of odds reflects market sentiment rather than certainty, and the final resolution will depend on credible reporting before the end date. As a political forecast, this event prediction is closely watched by participants tracking Cuba, regional politics, and leadership stability.",56467.562695000015,{"id":578,"title":579,"slug":580,"category":178,"subcategory":581,"tags":582,"probability":583,"createdAt":584,"updatedAt":585,"resolutionDate":43,"description":586,"summary":587,"volume1wk":588,"featured":23},"219798","Romanian PM Bolojan out by...?","romanian-pm-bolojan-out-by","Romania",[581,358,38],96.45,"2026-05-30T10:43:08.527Z","2026-06-16T10:02:41.796Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if Ilie Bolojan ceases to be Prime Minister of Romania for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn announcement of Ilie Bolojan's resignation\u002Fremoval before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to \"Yes\", regardless of when the announced resignation\u002Fremoval goes into effect.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be official information from Ilie Bolojan and the government of Romania; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.","Romanian PM Bolojan out by...? is a political prediction market on whether Ilie Bolojan will cease to be Prime Minister of Romania at any point before the market’s end date of December 31, 2026. The forecast resolves to “Yes” if Bolojan resigns or is removed from office, even if the change takes effect after an announcement is made before the deadline. If he remains in office throughout the full period, the market resolves to “No.”\n\nThis event matters because it tracks stability in Romania’s government and the potential for leadership change in a key EU and NATO member state. The resolution will rely primarily on official information from Ilie Bolojan and the Romanian government, with credible reporting also considered if needed. Current market probability is 98.25%, indicating traders overwhelmingly expect the outcome to be “Yes.”\n\nAs a political forecast, this event reflects strong market sentiment around a possible resignation or dismissal before year-end, and it is closely followed by traders watching Romania’s domestic politics and leadership risk.",48705.575570999994,{"id":590,"title":591,"slug":592,"category":28,"subcategory":570,"tags":593,"probability":599,"createdAt":600,"updatedAt":601,"resolutionDate":43,"description":602,"summary":603,"volume1wk":604,"featured":23},"259355","Cuban regime falls in 2026?","cuban-regime-falls-in-2026",[570,31,594,595,596,37,597,598],"PCC","Overthrow","Castro","Communist Party of Cuba","Miguel Diaz-Canel",24.5,"2026-05-30T10:42:59.418Z","2026-06-16T10:02:41.612Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Communist Party of Cuba (PCC) ceases to exercise de facto governing control over Cuba by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nA “Yes” resolution requires a clear and widely reported break from the PCC’s historical control over the government of Cuba. This may include events such as the overthrow or dissolution of the PCC and its replacement by a new government or transitional authority, the constitutional removal of the PCC’s status as the sole ruling party followed by a transfer of governing power to a different political entity, or the holding of multi-party national elections that result in a government not controlled by the PCC. A “Yes” resolution does not require the formal dissolution of the PCC, provided the PCC no longer exercises de facto governing control over Cuba.\n\nLeadership changes within the PCC, including replacement of the First Secretary, or governmental reforms that preserve the PCC’s de facto governing control over Cuba, will not suffice. Partial loss of territory, civil unrest, or challenges by rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the PCC no longer administers the majority of the Cuban population within Cuba.\n\nThe primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.\n","“Cuban regime falls in 2026?” is a geopolitics prediction market on whether the Communist Party of Cuba (PCC) will cease to exercise de facto governing control over Cuba by December 31, 2026. The event does not hinge on a simple leadership change; it requires a clear break from PCC control, such as the overthrow or dissolution of the party’s governing role, a transfer of power to a different political authority, or multi-party national elections that produce a government no longer controlled by the PCC. The forecast matters because it speaks to the stability of Cuba’s political system and the durability of Communist Party rule under Miguel Díaz-Canel and the broader Castro-era political legacy. The market is active from March 11, 2026 through the end-of-year resolution date, with traders currently pricing the probability at about 26.5%. That suggests the market sentiment leans toward continued PCC control, though the odds still leave room for a meaningful event prediction. Credible reporting will determine resolution, and partial unrest or reforms that preserve PCC dominance will not count as a “Yes” outcome.",34340.67227999999,{"id":606,"title":607,"slug":608,"category":178,"subcategory":38,"tags":609,"probability":612,"createdAt":613,"updatedAt":614,"resolutionDate":182,"description":615,"summary":616,"volume1wk":617,"featured":23},"424807","Jimmy Kimmel fired\u002Fresigns by May 31?","jimmy-kimmel-firedresigns-by-may-31",[38,31,610,285,611],"Celebrities","TV",0.25,"2026-05-30T10:43:07.723Z","2026-05-30T10:34:00.481Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Jimmy Kimmel ceases to be the host of Jimmy Kimmel Live! for any length of time between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nAn announcement of Kimmel's resignation\u002Ffiring before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to \"Yes\", regardless of when the announced resignation\u002Ffiring goes into effect.\n\nSuspensions, administrative leave, or other temporary measures will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from ABC or Disney, however a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.","Jimmy Kimmel fired\u002Fresigns by May 31? is a political prediction market asking whether Jimmy Kimmel will cease hosting Jimmy Kimmel Live! for any length of time between market creation and May 31, 2026. The event focuses on a clear forecasted outcome: a “Yes” resolution if ABC’s Jimmy Kimmel Live! host resigns, is fired, or otherwise stops hosting before the deadline; temporary suspensions or administrative leave do not count. If an official resignation or firing is announced before the end date, the market resolves to Yes immediately, even if the change takes effect later.\n\nThe market is relevant to politics, culture, celebrities, and TV because it tracks both entertainment news and potential media fallout involving ABC and Disney. As of the latest pricing, traders assign about a 25% probability to a Yes outcome, indicating the current market sentiment leans toward Kimmel remaining in place through the deadline, though the odds can move with new reporting. This event prediction is time-sensitive, with the forecast window ending at 11:59 PM ET on May 31, 2026.",33375.912205,{"id":619,"title":620,"slug":621,"category":28,"subcategory":37,"tags":622,"probability":623,"createdAt":624,"updatedAt":625,"resolutionDate":626,"description":627,"summary":628,"volume1wk":629,"featured":23},"599086","US-Iran deal text released by...?","us-iran-deal-text-released-byptptpt-20260615224044572",[37,39,36,29,38],90.5,"2026-06-16T10:08:14.774Z","2026-06-16T10:05:13.139Z","2026-07-01T03:59:00.000Z","On June 14, 2026, the US and Iran announced a written diplomatic agreement between the two countries, with an announced signing ceremony on June 19.\n\nThis market will resolve to “Yes” if any portion of the text of the agreement announced by the United States and Iran on June 14, 2026 is made widely available to the public by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe “agreement announced by the United States and Iran on June 14, 2026” includes any later-modified version that is publicly identified by credible reporting as a successor version of the same agreement.\n\nThe “text of the agreement” refers to the actual textual wording of the written agreement, whether released through images of the physical or electronic agreement text, or through alternative verbatim disclosures of the text (e.g., publication of the text of the agreement in a news article). Public disclosures of the deal’s contents, without the public disclosure of the actual text of the agreement, will not qualify. Public disclosures of text from draft proposals prior to the version of the agreement announced on June 14, 2026, will not qualify. \n\nA qualifying portion of the text of this agreement may be made widely available to the public by any means, regardless of whether it is released officially, leaked, or otherwise disclosed. However, such released text must be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to be genuine text of the agreement.\n\nA joint statement or similar document will qualify only if it contains verbatim text of the written agreement itself or is itself the operative written agreement between the United States and Iran. A statement that merely announces or characterizes the agreement will not qualify.\n\nThe resolution sources will be official information from the United States and Iran and a consensus of credible reporting.\n","US-Iran deal text released by...? is a geopolitics prediction market focused on whether the actual text of the written agreement announced by the United States and Iran on June 14, 2026 will be made widely available to the public by 11:59 PM ET on the resolution date. The market does not ask whether the deal exists or whether its contents are discussed; it specifically forecasts the release of qualifying verbatim text, whether through an official publication, leaked images, a news report reproducing the wording, or another credible disclosure. A joint statement only counts if it contains the agreement’s actual text or serves as the operative written agreement itself. The event matters because public release of diplomatic text can clarify the scope of the US-Iran agreement and shape market sentiment around the durability and substance of the peace deal. The current market probability is about 90.5%, indicating traders expect the text to be disclosed before the deadline. The forecast runs from June 15, 2026 through July 1, 2026, with resolution based on official information and a consensus of credible reporting.",33166.259299,{"id":631,"title":632,"slug":633,"category":427,"subcategory":431,"tags":634,"probability":636,"createdAt":637,"updatedAt":638,"resolutionDate":170,"description":639,"summary":640,"volume1wk":641,"featured":23},"488817","Ebola case in the US by June 30?","ebola-case-in-the-us-by-june-30",[431,428,635],"Ebola",14.5,"2026-05-30T10:43:05.245Z","2026-06-16T10:02:41.359Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if there is a confirmed case of Ebola in the territory of the United States of America reported between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nAny active laboratory-confirmed Ebola infection identified within U.S. territory will qualify, regardless of where exposure, symptom onset, or testing occurred.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official government information (e.g., the CDC); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.","Ebola case in the US by June 30? is a prediction market on whether a confirmed Ebola infection will be reported in the territory of the United States before the June 30, 2026 deadline. The market resolves to “Yes” if an active laboratory-confirmed Ebola case is identified in U.S. territory between market creation and 11:59 PM ET on June 30, 2026; otherwise it resolves to “No.” Official government information, such as CDC reporting, is the primary resolution source, although overwhelming credible reporting can also determine the outcome. This event matters because a confirmed U.S. Ebola case would be a significant public health development and a major news event for traders following disease surveillance and outbreak risk. Current market probability is about 35.5%, suggesting traders see a meaningful but not dominant chance of the expected outcome. As a weather-category prediction market with “Hantavirus” and “Ebola” tags, it is also relevant to broader event prediction and risk-monitoring searches. The forecast focuses on confirmation, not suspected exposure, so the key question is whether an official or widely reported case appears before the end date.",31411.141916000015,{"id":643,"title":644,"slug":645,"category":284,"subcategory":285,"tags":646,"probability":40,"createdAt":649,"updatedAt":650,"resolutionDate":651,"description":652,"summary":653,"volume1wk":654,"featured":655},"145916","New \"Stranger Things\" episode released by...? ","new-stranger-things-episode-released-by-wednesday",[285,611,647,648],"netflix","Movies","2026-05-30T10:42:43.455Z","2026-06-16T10:01:44.384Z","2026-01-07T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Netflix officially releases a new episode of Stranger Things (i.e., an episode that was not previously available to stream on Netflix) between market creation and January 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purposes of this market, an “episode” must be listed as a distinct episode of Stranger Things on Netflix and be playable for general subscribers in the United States. A behind-the-scenes featurette, documentary, trailer, recap, cast interview, deleted scenes compilation, or other bonus content will not count unless it is clearly presented by Netflix as an official numbered or titled episode of the series.\n\nIf Netflix releases an alternate cut, extended cut, or “secret” version of an already-released episode, it will not count unless it is listed as a separate episode entry on Netflix.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the Stranger Things title page on Netflix (episode list and availability), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.","New \"Stranger Things\" episode released by...? is a Culture prediction market asking whether Netflix will officially add a new Stranger Things episode during the market window, with resolution due by January 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The event is narrowly defined: the episode must be a distinct, playable entry on Netflix in the United States, not a trailer, featurette, recap, deleted-scenes compilation, or other bonus content. Alternate or extended cuts of existing episodes also do not count unless Netflix lists them as separate episode entries. This makes the forecast less about general Stranger Things activity and more about whether Netflix expands the series’ episode list in a way that meets the market’s strict rules. As a prediction market tied to one of Netflix’s best-known titles, it draws attention from traders tracking entertainment release timing and market sentiment around streaming content. The current market probability is 0%, indicating that traders see a new qualifying episode as unlikely, though that odds reading can shift if credible reporting or Netflix’s title page changes before the deadline.",19381190.250445094,false,{"id":657,"title":658,"slug":659,"category":8,"subcategory":9,"tags":660,"probability":40,"createdAt":663,"updatedAt":664,"resolutionDate":182,"description":665,"summary":666,"volume1wk":667,"featured":655},"33506","UEFA Champions League Winner ","uefa-champions-league-winner",[9,661,11,662],"Champions League","UCL","2026-05-30T10:42:43.497Z","2026-05-30T10:39:49.748Z","This is a polymarket to predict which club will win the 2025–26 UEFA Champions League (soccer). ","The UEFA Champions League Winner prediction market asks traders to forecast which club will win the 2025–26 UEFA Champions League, one of soccer’s most watched club competitions. As a sports prediction market in the Soccer category, it reflects market sentiment around the final outcome of the tournament rather than match-by-match results. The event opened on July 28, 2025 and is scheduled to resolve by May 31, 2026, when the season’s champion is expected to be decided. This market matters because the Champions League draws top European clubs, heavy public attention, and significant trading volume, making it a useful gauge of odds and event prediction behavior across the season. The listing is currently active, with substantial liquidity and open interest, which can help traders assess the expected outcome and how views shift as the competition progresses. No probability is provided here, so the market’s exact forecast level is not stated. Relevant search terms include UEFA Champions League winner, Champions League, UCL, sports forecast, and sports odds.",17910335.341974024,{"id":669,"title":670,"slug":671,"category":178,"subcategory":672,"tags":673,"probability":204,"createdAt":674,"updatedAt":675,"resolutionDate":676,"description":677,"summary":678,"volume1wk":679,"featured":655},"411239","Next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?","next-prime-minister-of-ethiopia","Ethiopia",[672,86,89,84,38],"2026-06-16T10:07:51.236Z","2026-06-16T10:06:02.820Z","2026-06-01T00:00:00.000Z","General elections are scheduled to be held in Ethiopia on June 1, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Ethiopia following the 2026 General elections.\n\nTo count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Ethiopia. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market.\n\nIf no such Prime Minister takes office by December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Ethiopia; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.\n","Next Prime Minister of Ethiopia? is a political prediction market centered on who will officially assume the office of Prime Minister of Ethiopia after the country’s June 1, 2026 general elections. The forecast is not about an interim or caretaker leader; it resolves only when an individual is formally appointed and sworn in as prime minister. If no qualifying prime minister takes office by December 31, 2028 at 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “Other.”\n\nThis event matters because Ethiopia’s election outcome and subsequent leadership transition are closely watched across domestic politics and global elections markets. Traders are using this prediction market to gauge the expected outcome of the post-election succession, with market sentiment currently implying a 65% probability for the leading outcome. The official resolution source is the Government of Ethiopia, though credible reporting may also be used if needed.\n\nWith the market active from April 27, 2026 through the June 1 election date, this is a straightforward event prediction focused on who ultimately takes executive office in Ethiopia.",16394723.007227,{"id":681,"title":682,"slug":683,"category":8,"subcategory":11,"tags":684,"probability":40,"createdAt":687,"updatedAt":688,"resolutionDate":689,"description":690,"summary":691,"volume1wk":692,"featured":655},"119872","2026 Men's Australian Open Winner","2026-mens-australian-open-winner",[11,685,686],"Tennis","ATP","2026-05-30T10:42:43.540Z","2026-05-30T10:30:42.430Z","2026-02-01T00:00:00.000Z","The 2026 Australian Open is set to take place from January 18 - February 1, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve to the player that wins the 2026 Australian Open Men’s Singles Tournament.\n\nIf at any point it becomes impossible for a listed player to win the 2026 Australian Open Men’s Singles Tournament per the rules of the tournament, the corresponding market will resolve to “No”.\n\nIf the 2026 Australian Open Men’s Singles Tournament is cancelled, postponed after February 28, 2026, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.\n\nThe primary resolution source will be official information from the Australian Open (https:\u002F\u002Fausopen.com\u002F); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.","The 2026 Men's Australian Open Winner prediction market asks traders to forecast who will win the men’s singles title at the 2026 Australian Open, one of tennis’s most closely watched ATP events. The tournament is scheduled to run from January 18 to February 1, 2026, and the market will resolve to the player officially declared champion. If no listed player can still win under the tournament rules, the market resolves to “No,” while cancellation, a long postponement beyond February 28, 2026, or the absence of a winner by that date would resolve it to “Other.”\n\nThis sports prediction market is relevant because the Australian Open often sets the tone for the early tennis season and attracts heavy market sentiment from tennis and ATP-focused traders. The current market probability is 0, so no single outcome is being assigned a live estimate in the provided data. Resolution will rely primarily on official Australian Open information, with credible reporting as a backup source. As a result, the event prediction centers on the final winner of the men’s singles draw rather than match-by-match outcomes.",15929930.170630006,{"id":694,"title":695,"slug":696,"category":28,"subcategory":166,"tags":697,"probability":699,"createdAt":700,"updatedAt":701,"resolutionDate":182,"description":702,"summary":703,"volume1wk":704,"featured":655},"329821","Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?","strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-end-of-may",[166,37,36,163,161,135,165,164,57,698,29],"China",0.35,"2026-05-30T10:42:43.838Z","2026-05-30T10:34:04.004Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nDaily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on\u002Froll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.\n\nThis market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.\n\nRevisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for May 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https:\u002F\u002Fportwatch.imf.org\u002Fpages\u002Fcb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.","Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? is a geopolitics prediction market focused on whether ship transit through this key Middle East chokepoint will recover to a 7-day moving average of at least 60 “Arrivals of Ships” by May 31, 2026. The forecast is based on IMF Portwatch transit calls data for the Strait of Hormuz, including container, dry bulk, roll-on\u002Froll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. In practice, traders are watching whether the expected outcome for regional shipping activity and oil-related logistics improves before the end-of-month deadline.\n\nThe market matters because the Strait of Hormuz is one of the world’s most important maritime routes, with direct implications for energy markets, trade flows, and broader U.S. x Iran geopolitical risk. Current market probability is about 35%, suggesting traders see a limited but meaningful chance of a return to normal traffic levels before resolution. The event prediction will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes qualifying data, or at the close of the measurement window if no such reading appears.",10857439.590805996,{"id":706,"title":707,"slug":708,"category":111,"subcategory":709,"tags":710,"probability":416,"createdAt":713,"updatedAt":714,"resolutionDate":715,"description":707,"summary":716,"volume1wk":717,"featured":655},"438065","What price will Bitcoin hit in May?","what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-in-may-2026","Bitcoin",[709,130,131,115,711,712],"Crypto Prices","Recurring","2026-05-30T10:42:43.885Z","2026-05-30T10:30:18.246Z","2026-06-01T04:00:00.000Z","What price will Bitcoin hit in May? is a crypto prediction market event asking traders to forecast the highest Bitcoin price reached during May 2026. Listed under CRYPTO and Bitcoin, this recurring monthly market focuses on a simple outcome: which price level Bitcoin will touch before the event closes. The market opened on May 1, 2026 at 14:45 UTC and runs through June 1, 2026 at 04:00 UTC, giving participants a full month to price in momentum, volatility, and broader market sentiment. As of the latest data, the market probability stands at 5%, suggesting traders are assigning relatively low odds to the relevant target outcome. Activity has been substantial, with strong volume and open interest indicating active event prediction and ongoing interest in Bitcoin price forecasting. For searchers looking for Bitcoin prediction market odds, crypto forecast data, or monthly crypto prices, this event captures expectations around whether Bitcoin can reach the specified level during May rather than simply close the month at a given price.",10759950.410525998,{"id":719,"title":720,"slug":721,"category":28,"subcategory":271,"tags":722,"probability":416,"createdAt":725,"updatedAt":726,"resolutionDate":182,"description":727,"summary":728,"volume1wk":729,"featured":655},"304265","Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?","will-the-iranian-regime-fall-by-may-31",[271,269,191,36,29,723,724,303,37,38],"Reza Pahlavi","Israel","2026-05-30T10:42:43.930Z","2026-05-30T10:31:36.575Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThis requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.\n\nRoutine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.\n\nPartial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran. \n\nThe resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. ","Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? is a geopolitics prediction market asking whether the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling system will lose governing power before May 31, 2026. The forecast is not about routine elections, reforms, or leadership succession; it resolves to \"Yes\" only if the core institutions of the regime — including the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, and IRGC-linked clerical authority — are dissolved, replaced, or otherwise cease to govern the majority of Iran’s population. That means the event is focused on a true break in continuity, such as revolution, civil war, a military coup, or a new provisional authority taking over.\n\nFor traders watching Middle East and U.S. x Iran tensions, the market provides a live read on sentiment around regime stability, opposition movements, and potential geopolitical escalation involving Iran, Israel, and figures such as Khamenei and Reza Pahlavi. The current market probability is about 5%, suggesting traders see a regime سقوط by the deadline as unlikely, though not impossible. The event ends on May 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET, and resolution will depend on consensus reporting about whether the Islamic Republic still exercises sovereign power.",10294105.622998836,{"id":731,"title":732,"slug":733,"category":28,"subcategory":29,"tags":734,"probability":204,"createdAt":735,"updatedAt":736,"resolutionDate":170,"description":737,"summary":738,"volume1wk":739,"featured":655},"108634","Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?","will-the-iranian-regime-fall-by-june-30",[29,724,191,37,358,38,269,723,271],"2026-05-30T10:42:44.921Z","2026-06-16T10:01:19.757Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThis requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.\n\nRoutine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.\n\nPartial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran. \n\nThe resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. ","Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? is a geopolitics prediction market focused on whether the Islamic Republic of Iran will cease to govern before June 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. The forecast asks traders to assess a major regime-change outcome, not routine elections, leadership succession, or limited internal power shifts. For a Yes resolution, credible reporting would need to show that core state structures such as the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, or IRGC authority under clerical rule have been dissolved, replaced, or made unable to exercise sovereign power over most of Iran’s population. The market is therefore tracking a high-stakes event prediction tied to Iran, the Middle East, and broader geopolitical stability. Current market probability is about 2.15%, suggesting traders see regime collapse by the deadline as unlikely, though not impossible. The market’s end date is June 30, 2026, and the resolution will depend on a consensus of credible reporting.",6919767.520957996,{"id":741,"title":742,"slug":743,"category":8,"subcategory":11,"tags":744,"probability":40,"createdAt":746,"updatedAt":747,"resolutionDate":748,"description":749,"summary":750,"volume1wk":751,"featured":655},"139020","2026 Men's French Open Winner","2026-mens-french-open-winner",[11,686,685,745],"Roland Garros","2026-05-30T10:42:44.112Z","2026-05-30T10:39:05.423Z","2026-06-07T00:00:00.000Z","The 2026 French Open is scheduled for May 18 - June 7, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve to the player that wins the 2026 French Open Men’s Singles Tournament.\n\nIf at any point it becomes impossible for a listed player to win the 2026 French Open Men’s Singles Tournament per the rules of the tournament, the corresponding market will resolve to “No”.\n\nIf the 2026 French Open Men’s Singles Tournament is cancelled, postponed after July 31, 2026, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.\n\nThe primary resolution source will be official information from the French Open (https:\u002F\u002Fwww.rolandgarros.com\u002Fen-us\u002F); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.","The 2026 Men's French Open Winner prediction market asks which player will win the men’s singles tournament at Roland Garros. The forecast is tied to the 2026 French Open, scheduled for May 18 through June 7, 2026, and will resolve to the eventual champion based on official tournament results. If no listed player can still win under the tournament rules, the market resolves to “No”; if the event is cancelled, delayed beyond July 31, 2026, or ends without a winner, it resolves to “Other.”\n\nAs an ATP tennis event and one of the sport’s most closely watched Grand Slam outcomes, the market draws strong attention from prediction market traders tracking form, clay-court performance, and tournament draw dynamics. Current market probability is not provided here, but market sentiment and odds typically shift as the event approaches and results narrow the field. Official information from Roland Garros is the primary resolution source, making this a straightforward event prediction for anyone following sports forecasts, tennis odds, or the 2026 men’s French Open winner market.",6906662.213207996,{"id":753,"title":754,"slug":755,"category":8,"subcategory":12,"tags":756,"probability":758,"createdAt":759,"updatedAt":760,"resolutionDate":19,"description":761,"summary":762,"volume1wk":763,"featured":655},"413862","World Cup: Golden Boot Winner","world-cup-golden-boot-winner",[12,13,9,11,757],"World Cup Awards",5.75,"2026-05-30T10:42:52.861Z","2026-06-16T10:06:51.581Z","This market will resolve to the player who scores the most goals through all main tournament rounds of the 2026 FIFA World Cup competition.\n\nIn the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official leader as determined by FIFA rules. If multiple leaders are announced then this market will resolve to the player who scored fewer goals from penalty kicks. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically.\n\nIf the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled, postponed after August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is no leader declared within that timeframe, the corresponding market will resolve to “Other”.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.\n","World Cup: Top Goalscorer is a sports prediction market on which player will score the most goals across all main rounds of the 2026 FIFA World Cup. The event focuses on the tournament’s leading scorer, with the market resolving according to official FIFA rules if there is a tie. If multiple players are tied, the winner is determined first by fewer penalty-kick goals and then alphabetically by last name if needed. The outcome matters because top-scorer races often reflect changing market sentiment as the tournament progresses, with traders adjusting odds based on team form, fixtures, and player performance. This forecast runs from April 24, 2026 through July 20, 2026, covering the full competition window before resolution. Current market probability for the leading outcome is 6.15%, indicating traders see it as a plausible but far from certain result. If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled, postponed beyond August 2, 2026, or no official leader is declared by then, the market resolves to Other. Official FIFA information is the primary resolution source, with credible reporting also considered.",6757882.048475998,{"id":765,"title":766,"slug":767,"category":178,"subcategory":29,"tags":768,"probability":71,"createdAt":770,"updatedAt":771,"resolutionDate":772,"description":773,"summary":774,"volume1wk":775,"featured":655},"585172","US and Iran sign an agreement by...?","us-and-iran-sign-an-agreement-byptptpt-20260611221049850",[29,769,36,31,38,37,39],"Treaty","2026-06-16T10:07:51.502Z","2026-06-16T10:02:55.796Z","2026-07-31T23:59:00.000Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States signs any written agreement with the Islamic Republic of Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nA qualifying agreement must be signed by both an authorized representative of the United States and an authorized representative of the Islamic Republic of Iran.\n\nBoth parties must either sign the same document, or sign individual documents which substantively and directly indicate acceptance of the same underlying agreement, regardless of minor or translated differences between the signed versions.\n\nBoth physical signatures and officially issued electronic signatures will qualify as signing.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.","“US and Iran sign an agreement by...?” is a political prediction market focused on whether the United States will sign any written agreement with the Islamic Republic of Iran by the listed deadline of 11:59 PM ET on July 31, 2026. The market resolves “Yes” only if an authorized representative of the U.S. and an authorized representative of Iran sign the same agreement, or sign separate documents that clearly accept the same underlying deal. Both physical and officially issued electronic signatures qualify. This event matters because any formal U.S.-Iran agreement would be a significant development in geopolitics, diplomacy, and broader Iran policy, with potential implications for regional stability and peace deal expectations. Current market probability is 100%, indicating traders are pricing in an extremely strong expectation that the forecasted outcome will occur, though prediction market odds can change as new information emerges. Resolution will rely primarily on official government information, with credible reporting as a secondary source if needed. As a political forecast, the market reflects active trader sentiment around treaty prospects, U.S. x Iran relations, and the likelihood of an official agreement before the end date.",6455040.2205400085,{"id":777,"title":778,"slug":779,"category":780,"subcategory":166,"tags":781,"probability":612,"createdAt":782,"updatedAt":783,"resolutionDate":784,"description":785,"summary":786,"volume1wk":787,"featured":655},"524097","Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?","strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-june-15","ECONOMY",[166,29,135,57,37,164,165,163],"2026-05-30T10:42:46.055Z","2026-06-16T10:01:37.704Z","2026-06-15T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and June 15, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nDaily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on\u002Froll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.\n\nThis market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.\n\nRevisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for June 15, 2026, however, will not be considered.\n\nIn case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https:\u002F\u002Fportwatch.imf.org\u002Fpages\u002Fcb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.","Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? is a prediction market in the Economy category tracking whether ship transit through the Strait of Hormuz will reach a 7-day moving average of at least 60 arrivals on or before June 15, 2026. The forecast is based on IMF Portwatch transit calls data, covering container, dry bulk, roll-on\u002Froll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships that are reported in the source dataset. In practical terms, traders are betting on whether maritime traffic in one of the world’s most strategically important chokepoints will recover to a level treated as “normal” by the market’s threshold. This matters because the Strait of Hormuz is closely tied to global oil flows, Iran-related geopolitics, and broader economic and shipping conditions. The market opened on May 26, 2026 and will resolve according to the first qualifying IMF Portwatch publication within the event window, or by the final date if no qualifying value appears. Current market probability is about 7.5%, suggesting traders see the expected outcome as unlikely but still possible before the deadline.",6251167.383993982,{"id":789,"title":790,"slug":791,"category":792,"subcategory":793,"tags":794,"probability":40,"createdAt":799,"updatedAt":800,"resolutionDate":801,"description":802,"summary":803,"volume1wk":804,"featured":655},"350795","IEM Cologne Major 2026 Winner","iem-cologne-major-2026-winner","ESPORTS","IEM Cologne",[793,11,795,796,797,798],"counter strike 2","Esports","Major","rewards 100, 4.5, 100 Deprec","2026-05-30T10:42:44.699Z","2026-06-16T10:05:32.484Z","2026-06-21T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve according to the winner of the IEM Cologne 2026 tournament, currently scheduled for June 2nd - June 21st, 2026.\n\nIf this tournament is cancelled, postponed after July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or a winner has not been declared within this timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.\n\nIf multiple teams are declared winners, this market will resolve in favor of the team whose listed team name comes first alphabetically.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be official information from the tournament organizer, ESL (https:\u002F\u002Fpro.eslgaming.com\u002F). However, a consensus of credible reporting (e.g., Liquipedia at https:\u002F\u002Fliquipedia.net\u002Fcounterstrike\u002FIntel_Extreme_Masters\u002F2026\u002FCologne) may also be used.\n\n","IEM Cologne Major 2026 Winner is a prediction market on which team will win the Counter-Strike 2 tournament held in Cologne, scheduled for June 2 to June 21, 2026. The event matters because IEM Cologne is one of the most closely watched esports competitions, and this market reflects trader expectations for the tournament outcome as the field develops. The forecast resolves to the official winner announced by ESL, with credible reporting such as Liquipedia also relevant if needed. If the event is cancelled, delayed beyond July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or no winner is declared by then, the market resolves to “Other.” Current market probability is about 2.1%, showing the market’s present odds and sentiment on the likely outcome. As a major esports prediction market, it is useful for tracking how traders price teams, performance, and event prediction risk ahead of the final result.",5979434.004724001,{"id":806,"title":807,"slug":808,"category":82,"subcategory":86,"tags":809,"probability":558,"createdAt":812,"updatedAt":813,"resolutionDate":814,"description":815,"summary":816,"volume1wk":817,"featured":655},"79987","Next French Presidential Election","next-french-presidential-election",[86,84,358,810,38,811,89],"France","French Election","2026-05-30T10:42:44.243Z","2026-06-16T10:04:47.789Z","2027-04-30T00:00:00.000Z","The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027.  This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. \n\nThe President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.\n\nThis market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThis market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https:\u002F\u002Fwww.interieur.gouv.fr\u002F).","Next French Presidential Election is a prediction market on who will win France’s next presidential election, expected around April 2027. The market covers the full French voting process, including the possibility of a second round runoff, and resolves to the candidate who is ultimately confirmed as the winner. Under France’s two-round system, a candidate must win more than 50% in the first round to avoid a runoff between the top two contenders. If the result is still unclear by December 31, 2027, the market resolves to \"Other.\" \n\nThis event matters because the French presidency is one of the most influential offices in European politics, shaping domestic policy, EU relations, and France’s role in global affairs. Market sentiment currently gives this event a probability of 5.5%, reflecting trader expectations in the election forecast. The event is active from November 2025 through April 30, 2027, making it a long-duration election prediction market for monitoring odds, candidate momentum, and changing outlooks as the race develops.",5849720.156036999,{"id":819,"title":820,"slug":821,"category":8,"subcategory":11,"tags":822,"probability":825,"createdAt":826,"updatedAt":827,"resolutionDate":828,"description":829,"summary":830,"volume1wk":831,"featured":655},"100371","F1 Drivers' Champion","2026-f1-drivers-champion",[11,823,824],"Formula 1","f1",16.5,"2026-05-30T10:42:44.068Z","2026-06-16T10:04:50.439Z","2026-12-06T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve according to the listed driver that finishes 1st in the driver standings for the 2026 F1 season.\n\nThis market will resolve as soon as the official results of the final scheduled race of the 2026 F1 season are known.\n\nIf multiple drivers tie for first place in the drivers standings, this market will resolve according to the tiebreak procedure used by F1 to determine the 2026 F1 Drivers’ champion.\n\nIf at any point it becomes impossible for a listed driver to win the 2026 F1 Drivers Championship based on the rules of F1 (e.g., they are mathematically eliminated from contention), the corresponding market will resolve to “No”.\n\nIf the F1 season is permanently canceled or has not been completed by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Formula 1.","F1 Drivers' Champion is a sports prediction market on which driver will finish first in the 2026 Formula 1 driver standings. The forecast resolves to the official F1 driver who ends the season atop the standings, using Formula 1’s own tiebreak rules if two or more drivers are level on points. The market will close after the final scheduled race of the 2026 F1 season, with a backstop resolution date of February 28, 2027, if the season is not completed. It can also resolve to “No” if a listed driver is mathematically eliminated from contention, or to “Other” if the season is permanently canceled. Current market probability for the leading outcome is 27.5%, reflecting trader sentiment rather than a guarantee. As a Formula 1 event prediction, this market is closely tied to championship form, remaining races, and title math, making it a useful signal for sports odds watchers tracking the expected outcome of the 2026 F1 drivers’ championship.",5843184.053615998,{"id":833,"title":834,"slug":835,"category":111,"subcategory":709,"tags":836,"probability":699,"createdAt":837,"updatedAt":838,"resolutionDate":839,"description":834,"summary":840,"volume1wk":841,"featured":655},"548274","What price will Bitcoin hit in June?","what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-in-june-2026",[709,130,131,115,711,712],"2026-06-16T10:07:51.793Z","2026-06-16T10:02:41.101Z","2026-07-01T04:00:00.000Z","What price will Bitcoin hit in June? is a crypto prediction market focused on the expected price range for Bitcoin during June 2026. Traders are forecasting which price level Bitcoin will reach before the market closes on July 1, 2026, with the event running from June 1 through the end of the month. As a recurring Bitcoin monthly hit-price market, it reflects broader market sentiment around BTC volatility, momentum, and near-term demand. The current market probability stands at 35%, suggesting traders see a moderate chance of the target outcome, though the forecast is far from certain. Because this is a prediction market event in the Crypto category, it serves as a real-time indicator of how participants are pricing Bitcoin’s likely performance over a specific timeframe. The market’s odds and trading volume can shift quickly as new information, price action, and sentiment change. For anyone tracking Bitcoin price predictions, this event offers a concise event prediction tied to a clear deadline and a well-defined expected outcome.",5617116.208786995,{"id":843,"title":844,"slug":845,"category":8,"subcategory":846,"tags":847,"probability":848,"createdAt":849,"updatedAt":850,"resolutionDate":851,"description":852,"summary":853,"volume1wk":854,"featured":655},"507693","Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC","ucl-psg-ars-2026-05-30","Games",[846,9,662,11],39.5,"2026-05-30T10:42:44.367Z","2026-05-30T10:40:04.085Z","2026-05-30T16:00:00.000Z","This event is for the upcoming UEFA Champions League game, scheduled for Saturday, May 30, 2026 between Paris Saint-Germain FC and Arsenal FC.","Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC is a UEFA Champions League prediction market focused on the outcome of the scheduled match between PSG and Arsenal on Saturday, May 30, 2026. The event asks traders to forecast the result of this high-profile soccer game, making it relevant to fans following the UCL, European football, and sports odds markets. As of the latest update, the market-implied probability is 39.5%, which reflects current sentiment rather than a guaranteed result. That price gives a snapshot of how traders are weighing PSG and Arsenal ahead of kickoff. The prediction market remains active through the match window, with the end date set for May 30, 2026 at 16:00 UTC. Because this is a major Champions League fixture, interest is likely driven by team form, matchup expectations, and broader market positioning in the days leading up to the game. For search and indexing purposes, this event covers a sports forecast centered on Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC odds, probability, and expected outcome in the UEFA Champions League.",5606430.413870994,{"id":856,"title":857,"slug":858,"category":28,"subcategory":31,"tags":859,"probability":40,"createdAt":862,"updatedAt":863,"resolutionDate":864,"description":865,"summary":866,"volume1wk":867,"featured":655},"73923","Russia nuclear test by...?","russia-nuclear-test-by",[31,860,38,37,861],"putin","Ukraine","2026-05-30T10:43:11.664Z","2026-06-16T10:01:37.618Z","2026-03-31T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Russia conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Russia that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.\n\nAccidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as \"dirty bombs\"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.\n\nTests not explicitly claimed by Russia may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Russia. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 \"Vela Incident\" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Russia.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.","“Russia nuclear test by...?” is a geopolitics prediction market asking whether Russia will conduct a nuclear test by the listed deadline. The event resolves to Yes if Russia carries out an intentional non-combat detonation that produces a nuclear chain reaction, including fission or fusion, and to No otherwise. Accidents, dirty bombs, or actions by third parties do not count, and the resolution will rely on a broad consensus of credible reporting. This makes the market a focused forecast on nuclear escalation risk, Russia’s military signaling, and the wider geopolitical outlook involving Putin, Trump-era political context, and the war in Ukraine. The market is active with an end date of March 31, 2026, giving traders a defined timeframe for event prediction and odds discovery. Current market probability is 0%, indicating that traders do not currently price in a nuclear test, though sentiment can change quickly if credible reports emerge. As a prediction market, it reflects how participants assess the expected outcome rather than a certainty.",4614861.809668998,{"id":869,"title":870,"slug":871,"category":28,"subcategory":33,"tags":872,"probability":873,"createdAt":874,"updatedAt":875,"resolutionDate":182,"description":876,"summary":877,"volume1wk":878,"featured":655},"429471","US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?","us-iran-nuclear-deal-by-may-31-974",[33,191,36,29,37],4.65,"2026-05-30T10:42:44.462Z","2026-05-30T10:40:10.204Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and\u002For nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nIf such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to \"Yes\", regardless of if\u002Fwhen the agreement goes into effect.\n\nAgreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and\u002For the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.","US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? is a geopolitics prediction market focused on whether the United States and Iran will reach a publicly announced mutual agreement on Iranian nuclear research and\u002For nuclear weapon development by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The market resolves to Yes if an official deal is announced before the deadline, including a bilateral agreement or a broader multilateral arrangement that includes both countries, and it can also settle on credible reporting if there is overwhelming confirmation. This event matters because any US-Iran nuclear agreement could affect Middle East diplomacy, regional security, and the broader trajectory of Iran-related negotiations. Traders are currently assigning a low probability of about 4.65%, suggesting the market’s expected outcome is that no deal will be announced by the resolution date. As a prediction market, it reflects market sentiment, odds, and event prediction around a high-stakes geopolitical forecast rather than a certainty.",4599922.648822007,{"id":880,"title":881,"slug":882,"category":284,"subcategory":285,"tags":883,"probability":40,"createdAt":885,"updatedAt":886,"resolutionDate":887,"description":888,"summary":889,"volume1wk":890,"featured":655},"564322","Elon Musk # tweets June 9 - June 16, 2026?","elon-musk-of-tweets-june-9-june-16",[285,38,884],"Tweet Markets","2026-06-16T10:07:51.997Z","2026-06-16T10:07:11.122Z","2026-06-16T16:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from June 9 12:00 PM ET to June 16, 2026 12:00 PM ET.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.\n\nReplies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https:\u002F\u002Fx.com\u002Felonmusk\u002Fstatus\u002F1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.\n\nDeleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).\n\nCommunity reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https:\u002F\u002Fxtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking \"Export Data\". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.","Elon Musk # tweets June 9 - June 16, 2026? is a Culture prediction market that asks traders to forecast how many times Elon Musk (@elonmusk) will post on X during a fixed window from June 9, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET to June 16, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. The event resolves using the tracker at xtracker.polymarket.com, with only main feed posts, quote posts, and reposts counted; replies do not count unless they appear on the main feed and are captured by the tracker. Deleted posts may still count if they remain available long enough to be recorded.\n\nThis event matters because Musk’s posting activity is closely watched across politics, technology, and culture, and it often drives broad market attention on X. As a prediction market, it reflects trader expectations about his posting frequency rather than any editorial judgment. The current probability is not provided here, but market sentiment can shift quickly as the deadline approaches. The forecasted outcome is simply the final post count during the specified week, with the market resolving by the tracker’s “Post Counter” figure or X as a secondary source if needed. The market closes on June 16, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.",3821001.4626410003,{"id":892,"title":893,"slug":894,"category":895,"subcategory":134,"tags":896,"probability":71,"createdAt":898,"updatedAt":899,"resolutionDate":900,"description":901,"summary":902,"volume1wk":903,"featured":655},"125877","Will Crude Oil (CL) hit__ by end of June?","cl-hit-jun-2026","OTHER",[134,14,897,135],"NYMEX Crude Oil Futures","2026-05-30T10:42:45.262Z","2026-06-16T10:04:52.325Z","2026-06-30T18:30:00.000Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if, on any trading day, the official CME settlement price for the Active Month (front month) of Crude Oil (CL) futures is equal to or above the listed price by the final trading day of June 2026. Otherwise, the market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.\n\nOnly the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.\n\nNote that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.\n\nOnly days on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.\n\nThis market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for that trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily \"Settlement\" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.","Will Crude Oil (CL) hit__ by end of June? is a commodities prediction market focused on whether the CME front-month Crude Oil futures contract will settle at or above a listed price on any trading day before the final trading day of June 2026. The event resolves using the official CME Group settlement price for the active month only, not intraday highs, lows, bids, offers, or last-traded prices. That makes the forecast dependent on published CME settlement data rather than day-to-day market noise. \n\nThis event matters because Crude Oil (CL) is a key benchmark for NYMEX crude oil futures and broader energy market sentiment. Traders in the prediction market are effectively pricing the odds that oil reaches the threshold by the end-of-June deadline, with current market probability shown at 100%. The market opens on December 26, 2025 and is scheduled to close on June 30, 2026 at 18:30 UTC. As a forecast on commodities, it reflects expectations for price momentum, supply-demand conditions, and volatility in the crude oil market over the first half of 2026.",3539249.6581530003,{"id":905,"title":906,"slug":907,"category":82,"subcategory":38,"tags":908,"probability":912,"createdAt":913,"updatedAt":914,"resolutionDate":915,"description":916,"summary":917,"volume1wk":918,"featured":655},"485538","Makerfield by-election Winner","makerfield-by-election-winner",[38,909,84,910,355,89,86,353,911],"Main Elections","UK Elections","Makerfield",77.5,"2026-05-30T10:42:47.119Z","2026-06-16T10:06:49.555Z","2026-06-18T00:00:00.000Z","A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Makerfield is expected to be held in 2026 following the announced resignation of incumbent Josh Simons.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the Makerfield parliamentary by-election in 2026.\n\nIf the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Wigan Council (https:\u002F\u002Fwww.wigan.gov.uk\u002F).","Makerfield by-election Winner is a prediction market on who will win the United Kingdom parliamentary by-election in Makerfield, expected in 2026 after the announced resignation of incumbent Josh Simons. The event matters because it tracks the outcome of a UK Elections contest that could reflect local political sentiment and broader views on the governing parties. Traders are forecasting the candidate who will secure the Makerfield parliamentary seat, with the market resolving to \"Other\" if official results are not confirmed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Based on current market probability, the leading outcome is priced at about 74%, though that remains subject to change as campaign coverage, candidate selection, and reporting develop. The market will resolve using credible reporting, with official election results from Wigan Council serving as the final source in case of ambiguity. For those following election prediction market odds, this listing offers a focused event prediction on a single seat in UK politics, with timing centered on the 2026 by-election window and final resolution by year-end if needed.",3351349.079954987,{"id":920,"title":921,"slug":922,"category":284,"subcategory":285,"tags":923,"probability":416,"createdAt":925,"updatedAt":926,"resolutionDate":927,"description":928,"summary":929,"volume1wk":930,"featured":655},"515567","Elon Musk # tweets May 26 - June 2, 2026?","elon-musk-of-tweets-may-26-june-2",[285,38,884,924],"Rewards Automation 100 4.5 50 (1)","2026-05-30T10:42:44.824Z","2026-05-30T10:40:11.045Z","2026-06-02T16:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from May 26 12:00 PM ET to June 2, 2026 12:00 PM ET.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.\n\nReplies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https:\u002F\u002Fx.com\u002Felonmusk\u002Fstatus\u002F1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.\n\nDeleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).\n\nCommunity reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https:\u002F\u002Fxtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking \"Export Data\". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.","Elon Musk # tweets May 26 - June 2, 2026? is a Culture prediction market that forecasts how many times Elon Musk (@elonmusk) will post on X during the measured period from May 26, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET through June 2, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. The event is resolved using the tracker’s Post Counter, with main feed posts, quote posts, and reposts counted, while replies do not count unless they appear as main-feed replies captured by the tracker. Deleted posts may still count if they are recorded in time, and the tracker or X itself can serve as the resolution source if needed.\n\nThis event matters because Musk’s posting cadence often drives market sentiment across culture and politics-related prediction markets, making it a closely watched event prediction for traders tracking social media activity. Current market probability is around 5%, suggesting the market expects a relatively low total under the specified rules. As the June 2 deadline approaches, traders will be watching odds and post frequency to gauge the expected outcome.",3323634.386235,{"id":932,"title":933,"slug":934,"category":8,"subcategory":11,"tags":935,"probability":936,"createdAt":937,"updatedAt":938,"resolutionDate":939,"description":940,"summary":941,"volume1wk":942,"featured":655},"351731","France vs. Senegal","fifwc-fra-sen-2026-06-16",[11,12,846,9],65.5,"2026-06-16T10:07:52.221Z","2026-06-16T10:07:29.216Z","2026-06-16T19:00:00.000Z","This event is for the upcoming FIFA World Cup game, scheduled for Tuesday, June 16, 2026 between France and Senegal.","France vs. Senegal is a Sports prediction market tied to the upcoming FIFA World Cup match scheduled for Tuesday, June 16, 2026. The market forecasts the expected outcome of this soccer game between France and Senegal, giving traders a way to price the probability of the result before kickoff. As the event approaches its end date of June 16, 2026 at 19:00 UTC, market sentiment reflects how participants assess each team’s chances in this World Cup fixture.\n\nThe current market probability is 65.5%, indicating France is favored, though the prediction market remains open to new information and changing odds. This event sits within the broader soccer and FIFA World Cup categories, making it relevant to fans following international tournament play as well as users tracking sports forecast activity. With strong volume and liquidity, the market has seen active trading around the France vs. Senegal prediction, and the odds may continue to shift as match day nears.",3247621.773894014,{"id":944,"title":945,"slug":946,"category":82,"subcategory":947,"tags":948,"probability":90,"createdAt":950,"updatedAt":951,"resolutionDate":952,"description":953,"summary":954,"volume1wk":955,"featured":655},"45915","Brazil Presidential Election","brazil-presidential-election","Brazil",[947,84,85,358,38,949,89],"Macro Election 2","2026-05-30T10:42:44.323Z","2026-06-16T10:06:55.946Z","2026-10-04T00:00:00.000Z","A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election.\n\nThis market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThis market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https:\u002F\u002Fdadosabertos.tse.jus.br\u002F).","Brazil Presidential Election is a prediction market on who will win Brazil’s next presidential race, scheduled for October 4, 2026, with any potential second round included in the resolution. The event matters because it reflects the expected outcome of one of the world’s largest democracies and can signal broader market sentiment around Brazilian politics, policy direction, and regional stability. Traders are forecasting which listed candidate will ultimately be confirmed as the winner, with the market resolving to the official result reported by Brazil’s Superior Electoral Court (TSE) if there is any ambiguity. If the election outcome is not known by June 30, 2027 at 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “Other.” Current market probability is about 15%, indicating relatively low odds for the leading outcome reflected in the contract at this time. As a Brazil-focused global elections event, this election forecast is closely watched across politics and macro-election categories, especially by users tracking election odds, event prediction trends, and pre-election sentiment ahead of the vote.",3239181.808596995,{"id":957,"title":958,"slug":959,"category":28,"subcategory":37,"tags":960,"probability":40,"createdAt":963,"updatedAt":964,"resolutionDate":182,"description":965,"summary":966,"volume1wk":967,"featured":655},"386788","Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by...?","israel-x-iran-permanent-peace-deal-by",[37,961,33,724,29,303,962,39],"Lebanon","Hezbollah","2026-05-30T10:42:45.304Z","2026-06-16T10:01:41.812Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Iran agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nA permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify.\n\nA qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:\n\n- Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.\n\n- Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.\n\nThe inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.\n","Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by...? is a geopolitics prediction market asking whether Israel and Iran will agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified deadline at 11:59 PM ET on May 31, 2026. Traders are forecasting a binary outcome: “Yes” if both governments formally adopt or publicly confirm a qualifying agreement that clearly ends military hostilities on a lasting basis, and “No” otherwise. Temporary ceasefires, short extensions, or statements of negotiation progress do not meet the market’s resolution standard.\n\nThis event matters because any durable diplomatic breakthrough between Israel and Iran would have significant implications for regional security, including related tensions involving Lebanon, Hezbollah, and broader Iran ceasefire dynamics. The prediction market is focused on official government statements from Israel and Iran, though credible reporting may also inform resolution. Current market probability is listed at 0%, indicating no priced expectation is available in the data rather than a guaranteed outcome. For users tracking geopolitical forecast and event prediction signals, this market reflects sentiment around whether a permanent peace settlement is realistically achievable before the deadline.",3214871.9922169973,{"id":969,"title":970,"slug":971,"category":28,"subcategory":37,"tags":972,"probability":974,"createdAt":975,"updatedAt":976,"resolutionDate":43,"description":977,"summary":978,"volume1wk":979,"featured":655},"73130","Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?","will-the-us-invade-iran-before-2027",[37,38,191,724,29,31,358,973],"Military Strikes",12.5,"2026-05-30T10:42:45.702Z","2026-06-16T10:01:37.878Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.","Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? is a geopolitics prediction market focused on whether the United States will begin a military offensive intended to establish control over any part of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The market resolves to Yes only if that threshold is met, with resolution based on a consensus of credible sources. It is part of the broader politics and Middle East category, and it draws on major geopolitical factors involving the U.S., Iran, Israel, and the Trump-era security context reflected in the event tags. The forecast matters because any direct U.S.-Iran military action would have significant implications for regional stability, energy markets, and global security. Traders are effectively pricing the expected outcome of a highly sensitive geopolitical scenario, with current market probability at 18.5%, suggesting a relatively low but non-trivial chance of escalation before the deadline. As a live event prediction, sentiment can shift quickly with developments in military strikes, diplomacy, or broader conflict dynamics across the Middle East.",3043878.1116630007,{"id":981,"title":982,"slug":983,"category":178,"subcategory":29,"tags":984,"probability":40,"createdAt":986,"updatedAt":987,"resolutionDate":182,"description":988,"summary":989,"volume1wk":990,"featured":655},"449163","Israel closes its airspace by...?","israel-closes-its-airspace-by",[29,724,38,37,303,985],"Rewards 50, 4.5, 20","2026-05-30T10:42:46.145Z","2026-06-16T10:03:45.239Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. \n\nA “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).\n\nWarnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.\n\nAirspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.","Israel closes its airspace by...? is a political prediction market focused on whether Israel will initiate a major closure of its civilian airspace by 11:59 PM ET on the specified deadline. The forecast asks traders to assess the likelihood of a broad suspension, cancellation, or shutdown of commercial aviation affecting all of Israeli airspace or a majority portion of it. According to the market rules, limited delays, isolated regional restrictions, airline-ordered suspensions, or weather-related disruptions do not count. The event matters because an airspace closure would be a significant geopolitical and aviation development, especially given the Israel x Iran context reflected in the market tags and category. Market sentiment can shift quickly based on official aviation authority notices, credible reporting, or changes in regional security conditions. As of the latest data, the market probability is 0%, indicating the current expected outcome is that no qualifying closure will occur before the end date. The market runs from May 4, 2026 through May 31, 2026, making the timing central to any event prediction.",2854468.0396250016,{"id":992,"title":993,"slug":994,"category":369,"subcategory":372,"tags":995,"probability":998,"createdAt":999,"updatedAt":1000,"resolutionDate":170,"description":1001,"summary":1002,"volume1wk":1003,"featured":655},"57705","Which company has best AI model end of June?","which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-june",[372,373,996,997,557,370],"GPT-5","Grok",4.5,"2026-05-30T10:42:46.365Z","2026-06-16T10:07:42.031Z","This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https:\u002F\u002Flmarena.ai\u002F) when the table under the \"Leaderboard\" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.\n\nResults from the \"Rank\" section on the Leaderboard tab of https:\u002F\u002Flmarena.ai\u002Fleaderboard\u002Ftext with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.\n\nModels will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https:\u002F\u002Flmarena.ai\u002F. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.","Which company has best AI model end of June? is a technology prediction market that asks traders to forecast which company will own the top-ranked model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard at the June 30, 2026 check time. The market resolves using the “Rank” section on lmarena.ai\u002Fleaderboard\u002Ftext, with the style control off, and the first-place company under the event’s ranking rules is the expected outcome. If models are tied, Arena score is used, including underlying granular values, and a company-name tiebreaker applies if needed. The relevant deadline is June 30, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET, when the leaderboard snapshot is taken. This event sits at the intersection of AI, Big Tech, and foundation-model competition, with companies such as OpenAI, xAI, and other major model developers potentially in focus. Current market sentiment shows a probability of 13.5% for the leading outcome, indicating that traders see the forecast as possible but far from certain. The event is closely watched because leaderboard position on Chatbot Arena is a widely followed signal of model performance and industry momentum.",2723773.234457999,{"id":1005,"title":1006,"slug":1007,"category":780,"subcategory":165,"tags":1008,"probability":1009,"createdAt":1010,"updatedAt":1011,"resolutionDate":1012,"description":1013,"summary":1014,"volume1wk":1015,"featured":655},"455867","Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?","strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-july-31",[165,57,33,38,164,29,135,37],60.5,"2026-05-30T10:42:46.752Z","2026-06-16T10:07:32.502Z","2026-07-31T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and July 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nDaily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on\u002Froll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.\n\nThis market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.\n\nRevisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for July 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.\n\nIn case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https:\u002F\u002Fportwatch.imf.org\u002Fpages\u002Fcb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.","Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? is a prediction market on whether shipping activity through one of the world’s most important oil chokepoints will recover to standard levels before the end of July 2026. The forecasted outcome is based on IMF Portwatch data: the market resolves “Yes” if the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz reaches at least 60 on any date between market creation and July 31, 2026. If that threshold is not published in time, the market resolves “No.”\n\nThis economy and geopolitics event matters because the Strait of Hormuz is a critical route for tankers, container ships, dry bulk cargo, and other vessels, making traffic levels a useful signal for regional stability and trade flow. Tags such as Iran, Oil, U.S. x Iran, and Iran Ceasefire highlight the broader political context traders are watching. Current market probability is about 56%, suggesting sentiment is slightly tilted toward normal traffic returning by the deadline, though the outcome remains uncertain and fully dependent on IMF Portwatch publications through July 31, 2026.",2661137.388396002,{"id":1017,"title":1018,"slug":1019,"category":178,"subcategory":38,"tags":1020,"probability":40,"createdAt":1021,"updatedAt":1022,"resolutionDate":1023,"description":1024,"summary":1025,"volume1wk":1026,"featured":655},"574934","Elon Musk # tweets June 12 - June 19, 2026?","elon-musk-of-tweets-june-12-june-19",[38,884,285],"2026-06-16T10:07:52.570Z","2026-06-16T10:07:09.861Z","2026-06-19T16:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from June 12 12:00 PM ET to June 19, 2026 12:00 PM ET.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.\n\nReplies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https:\u002F\u002Fx.com\u002Felonmusk\u002Fstatus\u002F1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.\n\nDeleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).\n\nCommunity reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https:\u002F\u002Fxtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking \"Export Data\". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.","Elon Musk # tweets June 12 - June 19, 2026? is a prediction market focused on how many times Elon Musk (@elonmusk) will post on X during the resolution window from June 12, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET through June 19, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. The forecast counts main feed posts, quote posts, and reposts, while replies are excluded unless they appear as counted main-feed activity on the tracker. Deleted posts can still count if captured by the resolution source, and the market ultimately relies on the Post Counter figure at xtracker.polymarket.com, with X used as a secondary source if needed. As a politics-category event with strong ties to tweet markets and culture, this listing reflects ongoing market sentiment around Elon Musk’s posting frequency and public activity. Traders are effectively pricing the expected outcome for the number of tweets in the specified period, making it a time-bound event prediction with clear rules and a defined deadline. At the time of the latest update, the market is active, with notable volume and liquidity, though no probability figure is provided in the data.",2607165.0266160006,{"id":1028,"title":1029,"slug":1030,"category":178,"subcategory":38,"tags":1031,"probability":1033,"createdAt":1034,"updatedAt":1035,"resolutionDate":43,"description":1036,"summary":1037,"volume1wk":1038,"featured":655},"81557","Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?","who-will-be-the-next-prime-minister-of-israel-after-the-next-election",[38,191,724,37,86,84,358,1032,89,798],"Trump-Netanyahu",31,"2026-05-30T10:42:45.925Z","2026-06-16T10:03:19.479Z","Legislative elections are schedule to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. \n\nThis market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Israel following the 2026 parliamentary election. If an election is called early, this market will immediately resolve to the individual who is officially appointed and sworn in after that election.\n\nTo count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market.\n\nIf no such Prime Minister is sworn in by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.","Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election? is a political prediction market tracking the outcome of Israel’s next parliamentary contest and the official leadership that follows. The market is focused on who will be formally appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Israel after the legislative elections scheduled for October 27, 2026, or after any earlier election if one is called. Interim or caretaker prime ministers do not count for resolution, and the event will settle to “Other” if no qualifying appointment is made by December 31, 2027.\n\nThis forecast matters because Israel’s leadership outcome has major implications for domestic politics, coalition building, and broader Middle East geopolitics. Traders are effectively pricing the expected outcome of the election process, using official government sources and credible reporting to assess the odds. The current market probability for the next Prime Minister is 33.5%, reflecting ongoing market sentiment rather than a certain result. As a result, this event combines election forecasting, political probability, and succession analysis in a single prediction market tied to one of the most closely watched political developments in Israel.",2476763.5792989996,{"id":1040,"title":1041,"slug":1042,"category":111,"subcategory":1043,"tags":1044,"probability":416,"createdAt":1045,"updatedAt":1046,"resolutionDate":715,"description":1041,"summary":1047,"volume1wk":1048,"featured":655},"438066","What price will Ethereum hit in May?","what-price-will-ethereum-hit-in-may-2026","Ethereum",[1043,130,131,115,711,712],"2026-05-30T10:42:45.153Z","2026-05-30T10:40:15.151Z","What price will Ethereum hit in May? is a crypto prediction market focused on the Ethereum (ETH) price level reached during the month of May 2026. Traders are forecasting the expected outcome for Ethereum’s monthly price action, using the market to express views on how high ETH may move before the event closes. The event opened on May 1, 2026 and runs until June 1, 2026, giving participants a full monthly window to price in market sentiment, volatility, and broader crypto conditions. With current probability at about 5%, the market is assigning a relatively low chance to the specified outcome, though prediction market odds can shift quickly as trading activity changes. This event sits in the CRYPTO category under Ethereum and is part of a recurring hit-price format, making it relevant for users tracking crypto forecasts, Ethereum odds, and event prediction trends. The listing is designed to capture whether Ethereum reaches the target price during the May 2026 period, not to predict long-term fundamentals or investment returns.",2451554.242724,{"id":1050,"title":1051,"slug":1052,"category":28,"subcategory":37,"tags":1053,"probability":40,"createdAt":1054,"updatedAt":1055,"resolutionDate":182,"description":1056,"summary":1057,"volume1wk":1058,"featured":655},"386759","Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by...?","israel-x-hezbollah-permanent-peace-deal-by",[37,29,724,303,33,961,962,39],"2026-05-30T10:42:46.269Z","2026-06-16T10:05:46.556Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Hezbollah agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nA permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the 10-day ceasefire agreement announced on April 16, 2026), will not qualify.\n\nA qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:\n\n- Israel and Hezbollah each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.\n\n- Both Israel and Hezbollah provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.\n\nThe inclusion of Israel and Hezbollah in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel and Hezbollah; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.","Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by...? is a geopolitics prediction market asking whether Israel and Hezbollah will reach a permanent peace agreement by the deadline of 11:59 PM ET on May 31, 2026. The forecast focuses on a lasting end to military hostilities, not a temporary ceasefire extension or other short-term arrangement. To resolve “Yes,” the market requires either a written agreement formally adopted by both sides or clear public confirmation that a qualifying permanent deal has been definitively reached. In a broader regional context, the event also reflects ongoing risk around Lebanon, Israel, and Iran-linked tensions. Market sentiment is currently extremely bearish on a lasting agreement, with the listed probability at 0%, suggesting traders see no expected outcome of a permanent peace deal before expiry. As a prediction market, the event tracks odds and trader expectations around whether diplomacy can produce an explicit, durable settlement rather than another temporary pause in hostilities.",2433095.8521550014,{"id":1060,"title":1061,"slug":1062,"category":780,"subcategory":372,"tags":1063,"probability":1064,"createdAt":1065,"updatedAt":1066,"resolutionDate":1067,"description":1068,"summary":1069,"volume1wk":1070,"featured":655},"385557","Largest Company end of May?","largest-company-end-of-may-167",[372,57,128,373,113],99.95,"2026-05-30T10:42:45.200Z","2026-05-30T10:37:43.438Z","2026-05-31T06:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31, 2026, as of market close.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.","Largest Company end of May? is a prediction market in the Economy category that asks which company will be the largest in the world by market capitalization at the close of May 31, 2026. The forecast resolves using a consensus of credible reporting, making it a straightforward event prediction tied to the global tech and business landscape. Because the market focuses on market cap rather than revenue or brand value, it reflects how traders expect the relative size of major public companies to stand at month-end. As of the latest update, market sentiment is heavily concentrated, with a reported probability of 99.95% for the current leading outcome. The event opens on April 17, 2026 and ends at 6:00 UTC on May 31, 2026, giving traders a short window to price in late-month moves across Big Tech and other large-cap names. Relevant tags include Tech, Economy, Finance, Big Tech, and Business, all of which point to the broader corporate and market-cap competition behind this forecast.",2345554.2487270003,{"id":1072,"title":1073,"slug":1074,"category":8,"subcategory":12,"tags":1075,"probability":1077,"createdAt":1078,"updatedAt":1079,"resolutionDate":1080,"description":1081,"summary":1082,"volume1wk":1083,"featured":655},"414231","World Cup: Team to advance to Knockout Stages","world-cup-team-to-advance-to-knockout-stages",[12,11,13,9,1076,15],"Team Props",93.5,"2026-05-30T10:43:06.510Z","2026-06-16T10:07:40.487Z","2026-06-28T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve “Yes” if the listed nation advances to the Knockout Stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup. \n\nIf at any point it becomes impossible for the listed nation to advance to the Knockout Stage (e.g. they are mathematically eliminated), the associated market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf the 2026 FIFA World Cup competition is cancelled, postponed after July 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET or the 2026 FIFA World Cup Round of 32 matchups have not been declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.","World Cup: Team to advance to Knockout Stages is a FIFA World Cup prediction market asking whether the listed nation will reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup knockout rounds. The event focuses on a simple expected outcome: traders forecast if the team advances beyond the group stage and into the Round of 32 or later, or is eliminated before qualifying. The market resolves Yes if the nation advances, and No if it becomes mathematically impossible for that team to move on. It also includes a July 12, 2026 deadline tied to the official tournament timeline and FIFA resolution rules. As a sports forecast in the FIFA World Cup category, it draws on market sentiment around team strength, group-stage matchups, and qualification odds. Current market probability sits around 66.5%, suggesting traders currently see advancement as more likely than not, though not guaranteed. This event is relevant for anyone tracking soccer prediction market odds, 2026 FIFA World Cup outcomes, and official FIFA knockout-stage qualification.",2216457.0036939997,{"id":1085,"title":1086,"slug":1087,"category":8,"subcategory":11,"tags":1088,"probability":1093,"createdAt":1094,"updatedAt":1095,"resolutionDate":1096,"description":1097,"summary":1098,"volume1wk":1099,"featured":655},"212252","Where will Tyreek Hill play in 2026?","where-will-tyreek-hill-play-in-2026",[11,1089,1090,1091,1092],"NFL","football","tyreek hill","NFL Free Agency",10.6,"2026-06-16T10:07:52.825Z","2026-06-16T10:03:55.302Z","2026-08-31T23:55:00.000Z","This market will resolve to the next NFL team Tyreek Hill joins by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.\n\nIf Tyreek Hill does not join a new NFL team by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.\n\nIf Tyreek Hill joins a team that is not listed, this market will resolve to “Other”.\n\nIf Tyreek Hill is released and is not signed by another team, retires, or is not under contract with any NFL team by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.\n\nTransfers or assignments between a team’s senior team and reserve or affiliate teams will not be considered for this market.\n\nAn official signing announcement prior to the market’s close date will immediately resolve this market to the corresponding option.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be official information from the NFL or the acquiring team.","Where will Tyreek Hill play in 2026? is a sports prediction market focused on the next NFL team Tyreek Hill joins by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The event asks traders to forecast Hill’s team destination, with “Other” used if he is not signed by a listed club, retires, or remains without an NFL contract by the deadline. The market can also resolve early if an official signing announcement is made before the close date, using information from the NFL or the acquiring team as the resolution source. \n\nThis event matters because Tyreek Hill is a high-profile NFL wide receiver, and any move involving him could affect team rosters, free agency chatter, and broader market sentiment around NFL transactions. As of the latest data, the market is pricing Hill’s next-team outcome at about 10.6% probability, indicating that traders see a relatively low likelihood for this specific resolution option at present. The event sits squarely in NFL Free Agency and football prediction market coverage, making it relevant for event prediction, sports odds, and search queries tied to Tyreek Hill’s 2026 landing spot.",2181357.628851,{"id":1101,"title":1102,"slug":1103,"category":51,"subcategory":113,"tags":1104,"probability":1106,"createdAt":1107,"updatedAt":1108,"resolutionDate":43,"description":1109,"summary":1110,"volume1wk":1111,"featured":655},"51456","How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?","how-many-fed-rate-cuts-in-2026",[113,55,54,52,56,57,128,1105],"Rewards 200, 4.5, 50 Deprec",68.65,"2026-05-30T10:42:45.795Z","2026-06-16T10:01:40.617Z","This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).\n\nEmergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.\n\nFor example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).\n\nThis market will resolve early to \"No\" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.\n\nNote that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https:\u002F\u002Fwww.federalreserve.gov\u002Fmonetarypolicy\u002Ffomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https:\u002F\u002Fwww.federalreserve.gov\u002Fmonetarypolicy\u002Fopenmarket.htm.","How many Fed rate cuts in 2026? is a finance prediction market tracking the Federal Reserve’s policy path over the full 2026 calendar year. Traders are forecasting the total number of 25-basis-point rate cuts the Fed will make, including cuts announced at scheduled FOMC meetings and any emergency rate cuts outside the regular calendar. The market resolves based on official Federal Reserve and FOMC statements, with the final deadline set for December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET to capture any late-year action. In practical terms, a 50-basis-point cut would count as two cuts, while even a 1- to 24-basis-point reduction counts as one. This event matters because Fed rate cuts are a major signal for U.S. monetary policy, inflation expectations, and broader economic conditions, making it a closely watched economic policy forecast. Current market probability is 67.25%, suggesting traders currently expect a meaningful chance of the specified outcome, though the final odds can shift as the year progresses and new FOMC decisions are announced.",2139440.819947004,{"id":1113,"title":1114,"slug":1115,"category":111,"subcategory":1116,"tags":1117,"probability":1064,"createdAt":1119,"updatedAt":1120,"resolutionDate":887,"description":1121,"summary":1122,"volume1wk":1123,"featured":655},"576738","Bitcoin above ___ on June 16?","bitcoin-above-on-june-16-2026","Weekly",[1116,1118,115,711,712,14,709],"Multi Strikes","2026-06-16T10:07:52.918Z","2026-06-16T10:00:21.806Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC\u002FUSDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final \"Close\" price higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC\u002FUSDT \"Close\" prices currently available at https:\u002F\u002Fwww.binance.com\u002Fen\u002Ftrade\u002FBTC_USDT with \"1m\" and \"Candles\" selected on the top bar.\n\nPlease note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC\u002FUSDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.\n\nPrice precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.","Bitcoin above ___ on June 16? is a crypto prediction market focused on whether Bitcoin’s price on Binance will finish above the specified level at the 12:00 ET one-minute BTC\u002FUSDT candle on June 16, 2026. The event resolves to \"Yes\" if the candle’s final close is higher than the strike price shown in the market title, and \"No\" otherwise. Because the resolution source is Binance BTC\u002FUSDT 1m candles, the forecast is tied specifically to that exchange and trading pair rather than broader spot prices across other venues.\n\nThis weekly Bitcoin market matters because it reflects short-horizon market sentiment around BTC price direction and lets traders express an event prediction on a precise intraday threshold. With the market currently showing about 99.95% probability, traders are assigning very high odds that Bitcoin will end above the listed level by the June 16 deadline. As a recurring crypto prices listing, it is part of the broader category of weekly Bitcoin forecasts used for tracking near-term expectations in the digital asset market.",2062175.7148250015,{"id":1125,"title":1126,"slug":1127,"category":111,"subcategory":709,"tags":1128,"probability":1130,"createdAt":1131,"updatedAt":1132,"resolutionDate":120,"description":1133,"summary":1134,"volume1wk":1135,"featured":655},"89502","What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?","what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-before-2027",[709,1129,131,711,115],"Yearly",2.05,"2026-05-30T10:42:45.395Z","2026-06-16T10:02:40.708Z","What price will Bitcoin hit before 2027?  ","What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026? is a crypto prediction market focused on the highest Bitcoin price level reached before the event ends on 2027-01-01. Traders are forecasting the next major Bitcoin price milestone, using market odds to express expectations about where BTC could trade during the 2026 calendar year. As a Bitcoin event in the CRYPTO category, it sits at the intersection of digital asset price discovery, market sentiment, and event prediction.\n\nThe current market probability is 3.45%, suggesting traders see this outcome as relatively unlikely at the moment, though prediction market prices can change quickly as Bitcoin volatility, macro conditions, and broader crypto sentiment evolve. The market’s relevance comes from its focus on a clear, measurable expected outcome: whether Bitcoin will reach a specified price threshold before the deadline. With active trading and meaningful liquidity, this event offers a real-time view into how participants are pricing Bitcoin’s upside potential over the coming months.",2033678.9925440005,{"id":1137,"title":1138,"slug":1139,"category":792,"subcategory":796,"tags":1140,"probability":1142,"createdAt":1143,"updatedAt":1144,"resolutionDate":1145,"description":1146,"summary":1147,"volume1wk":1148,"featured":655},"522804","LoL: Anyone's Legend vs EDward Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs","lol-al-edg-2026-05-30",[796,1141,846,11],"league of legends",50,"2026-05-30T10:42:45.437Z","2026-05-30T10:38:38.985Z","2026-05-30T12:00:00.000Z","This market refers to the LoL Upper bracket quarterfinal 3 match between Anyone's Legend and EDward Gaming in the LPL Playoffs, initially scheduled for May 30 at 2:00AM ET.\n\nThis market will resolve to \"Anyone's Legend\" if Anyone's Legend win the match against EDward Gaming.\n\nThis market will resolve to \"EDward Gaming\" if EDward Gaming win the match against Anyone's Legend.\n\nIf the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. \n\nIf the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. \n\nIf the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. \n\nThe resolution source for this market will be official information from https:\u002F\u002Fgol.gg\u002Fesports\u002Fhome. However, if https:\u002F\u002Fgol.gg\u002Fesports\u002Fhome has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.\n\nIn cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.","LoL: Anyone's Legend vs EDward Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs is a prediction market on the Upper bracket quarterfinal 3 match in the League of Legends LPL Playoffs. The forecast asks which team will win the best-of-five series: Anyone's Legend or EDward Gaming. The market resolves to the team that wins the match, while a cancellation, tie, or a delay of more than seven days without a result would trigger a 50-50 outcome under the rules. The match was initially scheduled for May 30 at 2:00AM ET, with the market’s end date set for May 30 at 12:00 PM UTC. As an esports event prediction, it reflects trader sentiment around two established LPL teams and how the series is expected to unfold in playoff play. Current market probability is 50%, suggesting the odds are evenly balanced at the time of update. Resolution is based on official results from gol.gg\u002Fesports\u002Fhome, with credible reporting used if needed after the event concludes.",2007173.6976069997,{"id":1150,"title":1151,"slug":1152,"category":51,"subcategory":128,"tags":1153,"probability":90,"createdAt":1154,"updatedAt":1155,"resolutionDate":1156,"description":1157,"summary":1158,"volume1wk":1159,"featured":655},"522294","What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in June 2026?","what-price-will-wti-hit-in-june-2026",[128,130,131,14,132,133,134,135],"2026-05-30T10:43:08.617Z","2026-06-16T10:04:48.430Z","2026-06-30T17:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if, at any point after market creation and during a trading session of June 2026, any 1-minute candle for the Active Month of WTI Crude Oil futures has a final \"High\" or \"Low\" price equal to or beyond (above for ↑ High Prices, below for ↓ Low Prices) the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nPrices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding.\n\nIf the Active Month contract does not trade at all during the listed time frame, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nOnly prices achieved during an applicable trading session of the specified timeframe’s business days will be considered. The trading session for a given business day typically begins at 6:00 PM ET on the prior calendar date. Under the standard schedule, trading is open from 6:00:00 PM ET Sunday through 5:00:00 PM ET Friday, with a daily break from 5:00:00 PM ET to 6:00:00 PM ET, except where modified by holiday or special-session hours.\n\nThe active month changes at the start of the second trading session prior to the nearest listed contract's last trading session. At that point, the next listed contract becomes the active month (i.e., for the final three trading sessions of the nearest listed contract, the contract for the next month is the active month). \n\nPer CME contract specifications for WTI Crude Oil (CL) futures, a contract's last trading day is three business days prior to the 25th calendar day of the month preceding the contract's delivery month (or four business days prior if the 25th calendar day is not a business day).\n\nFor example, if the 25th of the month is a Saturday, the last trading session for the nearest listed contract is the session for Tuesday the 21st, and the next listed contract becomes the active month at the start of the trading session for Friday the 17th (6:00 PM ET on Thursday), assuming a standard trading calendar.\n\nIf the relevant Pyth data is unavailable due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption that prevents verification of the required 1-minute candle data, the official daily high\u002Flow price published for the Active Month WTI Crude Oil (CL) futures contract by CME Group may be used to determine whether the listed price was reached during the applicable trading session.\n\nIn the event of a contract specification change, feed change, or similar structural modification affecting the underlying market during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is Pyth — specifically, the Active Month WTI Crude Oil futures \"High\" and \"Low\" prices available at https:\u002F\u002Fpythdata.app\u002Fexplore?search=WTI, with the chart settings configured for 1-minute candles. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the \"t=\" parameter.","What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in June 2026? is a finance prediction market focused on the monthly price range for West Texas Intermediate crude oil. Traders are forecasting which price level WTI will reach during the June 2026 contract window, making this an event prediction tied to commodity markets, oil prices, and broader energy market sentiment. The market opened on 2026-05-25 and runs through 2026-06-30 at 17:00 UTC, so the expected outcome will be determined by WTI’s performance over that period. Current market probability is about 45%, suggesting a fairly balanced outlook rather than a strong consensus. As with other hit-price markets, traders use the forecast to express expectations about supply, demand, geopolitical risk, and short-term volatility in crude oil. This event is relevant for participants following finance, commodities, and oil markets, especially those tracking how prediction market odds reflect changing sentiment around WTI Crude Oil in June 2026.",1981724.6436299998,{"id":1161,"title":1162,"slug":1163,"category":8,"subcategory":11,"tags":1164,"probability":1165,"createdAt":1166,"updatedAt":1167,"resolutionDate":1168,"description":1169,"summary":1170,"volume1wk":1171,"featured":655},"534894","Roland Garros ATP: Francisco Cerundolo vs Zachary Svajda","atp-cerundo-svajda-2026-05-30",[11,685,846],46.5,"2026-05-30T10:42:45.478Z","2026-05-30T10:40:15.756Z","2026-06-06T09:00:00.000Z","This market refers to the tennis match between Francisco Cerundolo and Zachary Svajda in the Roland Garros ATP, originally scheduled for May 30, 2026 at 5:00AM ET.\n\nThis market will resolve to 'Francisco Cerundolo' if Francisco Cerundolo advances against Zachary Svajda.\n\nThis market will resolve to 'Zachary Svajda' if Zachary Svajda advances against Francisco Cerundolo.\n\nIf the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.\n\nIf the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances.\n\nIf the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50.\n\nThe primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.","Roland Garros ATP: Francisco Cerundolo vs Zachary Svajda is a tennis prediction market on the first-round match in the Roland Garros men’s draw. The event forecasts which player will advance: Francisco Cerundolo or Zachary Svajda. It matters because ATP Tour results at a Grand Slam can shift market sentiment quickly, and traders are watching the expected outcome for this matchup closely.\n\nThe market is scheduled around May 30, 2026, with the original match time listed as 5:00 AM ET, and the market remains active through the event window ending June 6, 2026. Official ATP Tour reporting is the primary resolution source, with credible coverage also used if needed. If the match is not played, ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond seven days without a winner, the market resolves 50-50. If one player advances after retirement, default, or disqualification, that player is the resolution outcome.\n\nCurrent market probability is 46.5% for the leading side, indicating a relatively balanced forecast in this sports prediction market.",1974814.1130199982,{"id":1173,"title":1174,"slug":1175,"category":8,"subcategory":11,"tags":1176,"probability":1177,"createdAt":1178,"updatedAt":1179,"resolutionDate":182,"description":1180,"summary":1181,"volume1wk":1182,"featured":655},"518927","Spurs vs. Thunder","nba-sas-okc-2026-05-30",[11,215,846,217],53,"2026-05-30T10:42:45.520Z","2026-05-30T10:38:11.171Z","In the upcoming NBA game, scheduled for May 30 at 8:00PM ET:\nIf the Spurs win, the market will resolve to \"Spurs\".\nIf the Thunder win, the market will resolve to \"Thunder\".\nIf the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed.\nIf the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.\nThe result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods.","Spurs vs. Thunder is an NBA prediction market focused on which team will win the upcoming game scheduled for May 30 at 8:00 PM ET. Traders in this sports forecast are choosing between a Spurs resolution and a Thunder resolution, with the final outcome determined by the game’s final score, including overtime. If the game is postponed, the market stays open until play is completed; if it is canceled with no make-up game, it resolves 50-50. As a live event prediction on a major basketball matchup, the listing reflects current market sentiment rather than certainty. The market’s current probability is about 53% for one side, indicating a slight lean in odds while still leaving meaningful uncertainty. Because this is an active NBA game market, it attracts attention from prediction market participants tracking sports odds, team performance, and late lineup or injury news. The forecast remains open through the event window, with resolution expected once the game is officially decided.",1878201.1552370214,{"id":1184,"title":176,"slug":1185,"category":28,"subcategory":29,"tags":1186,"probability":40,"createdAt":1188,"updatedAt":1189,"resolutionDate":74,"description":1190,"summary":1191,"volume1wk":1192,"featured":655},"577376","iran-closes-its-airspace-byptptpt-20260609184135829",[29,1187,191],"Airspace","2026-06-16T10:07:53.091Z","2026-06-16T10:06:04.000Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran initiates a major closure of its airspace, that is not solely due to weather conditions, between June 9, 2026, 3:00 PM ET and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nA “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or suspension of commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from Iranian airspace or a major Iranian Airspace region. A qualifying closure must apply generally to flights across Iran or a major Iranian airspace region. Limited cancellations, delays, or other partial closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain flights pre-approved by the Iranian Civil Aviation Authority may be permitted). \n\nAny non-weather complete suspension of commercial arrivals and departures affecting at least two of the following airports will qualify: Imam Khomeini International Airport (IKA), Mehrabad Airport (THR), Mashhad International Airport (MHD), Shiraz International Airport (SYZ), or Isfahan International Airport (IFN).\n\nQualifying previous examples include the January 2026 total closure of Iranian airspace except to international flights with express governmental permission (https:\u002F\u002Fwww.reuters.com\u002Fworld\u002Fmiddle-east\u002Firan-shuts-airspace-most-flights-flightradar24-says-2026-01-14\u002F) and the April 2024 closure of Iran’s western airspace (https:\u002F\u002Fwww.reuters.com\u002Fworld\u002Fmiddle-east\u002Firanian-airports-cancel-flights-until-monday-morning-2024-04-14\u002F). Non-qualifying examples include the January 27, 2026 partial closure of Iranian airspace around the Strait of Hormuz (https:\u002F\u002Fwww.aa.com.tr\u002Fen\u002Fmiddle-east\u002Firan-issues-airspace-notice-for-military-drills-near-strait-of-hormuz\u002F3812508) and the January 25 - April 25, 2026 VFR (Visual Flight Rules) flights suspension which did not broadly close commercial aviation in a qualifying region (https:\u002F\u002Fwww.intellinews.com\u002Firan-suspends-general-aviation-and-vfr-flights-in-new-airspace-directive-421997\u002F).\n\nWarnings, No-Fly-Zones, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Iran will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.\n\nAirspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from Iranian aviation authorities and a consensus of credible reporting.","“Iran closes its airspace by...?” is a geopolitics prediction market asking whether Iran will initiate a major closure of its airspace between June 9, 2026, 3:00 PM ET and the listed deadline. The forecast resolves to Yes only if Iranian aviation authorities impose a broad suspension, cancellation, or closure affecting commercial flights transiting, arriving in, or departing from Iran, and not solely because of weather. A qualifying closure can include a major regional airspace shutdown or a non-weather suspension affecting at least two of the following airports: Imam Khomeini International Airport (IKA), Mehrabad (THR), Mashhad (MHD), Shiraz (SYZ), or Isfahan (IFN).\n\nThis event matters because airspace restrictions can signal elevated regional tensions, aviation disruption, or government security actions in the Middle East. Traders in this prediction market are watching official Iranian aviation notices and credible reporting for evidence of a qualifying closure. Market sentiment currently implies a 0% probability, though that reflects the platform’s reported pricing rather than a guarantee of the expected outcome. As with any event prediction, only a broad Iranian closure counts; airline restrictions, foreign no-fly zones, or weather-related disruptions do not.",1839041.238883999,{"id":1194,"title":1195,"slug":1196,"category":111,"subcategory":709,"tags":1197,"probability":1064,"createdAt":1198,"updatedAt":1199,"resolutionDate":851,"description":1121,"summary":1200,"volume1wk":1201,"featured":655},"517287","Bitcoin above ___ on May 30?","bitcoin-above-on-may-30-2026",[709,1116,1118,115,711,712,14],"2026-05-30T10:42:45.566Z","2026-05-30T10:31:48.278Z","Bitcoin above ___ on May 30? is a crypto prediction market asking whether the Binance BTC\u002FUSDT 1-minute candle at 12:00 ET on May 30, 2026 will close above the specified price level. The event uses Binance’s BTC\u002FUSDT “Close” price from the 1m Candles view as the sole resolution source, so the outcome depends on that exact timestamp rather than broader Bitcoin prices on other exchanges. This makes it a narrowly defined event prediction tied to short-term market behavior in Bitcoin.\n\nThe market matters because it reflects trader expectations for BTC price action at a specific moment, and it is part of a recurring weekly, multi-strike crypto prices series. As of the latest update, market sentiment is strongly skewed toward “Yes,” with an implied probability of 99.95%, though prediction market odds can still change before resolution. The market opened on May 23, 2026 and is scheduled to resolve on May 30, 2026 at 12:00 ET, when the relevant candle closes.",1820341.937116999,{"id":1203,"title":1204,"slug":1205,"category":8,"subcategory":11,"tags":1206,"probability":416,"createdAt":1207,"updatedAt":1208,"resolutionDate":1209,"description":1210,"summary":1211,"volume1wk":1212,"featured":655},"241851","Where will David Njoku play in 2026-27?","where-will-david-njoku-play-in-2026-27",[11,1092,1089,1090],"2026-05-30T10:42:45.660Z","2026-05-30T10:39:56.531Z","2026-09-01T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to the next team David Njoku officially joins by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.\n\nIf David Njoku does not officially join a new team by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.\n\nIf David Njoku joins a team that is not listed, this market will resolve to “Other”.\n\nIf David Njoku is released, retires, or is not under contract with any professional team by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.\n\nAn official signing announcement prior to the market’s close date will immediately resolve this market to the corresponding option.\n\nThe primary resolution sources for this market will be official announcements from the NFL and\u002For the acquiring team. A consensus of credible media reporting may also be used to resolve the market.","\"Where will David Njoku play in 2026-27?\" is a sports prediction market asking traders to forecast the next NFL team tight end David Njoku will officially join by August 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. The event centers on Njoku’s team status for the 2026-27 season and resolves based on an official signing announcement from the NFL or the acquiring team; credible media reports may also help determine the outcome. If he does not sign with a new team by the deadline, is released, retires, or is otherwise not under contract with a professional team, the market resolves to “Other.”\n\nThis NFL free agency event matters because it tracks real player movement and how market sentiment shifts around a well-known football name. The current market probability for a listed team outcome is 5%, suggesting traders see a relatively low likelihood for that specific result at present. With the market active through early September 2026, this forecast remains focused on official roster decisions rather than speculation, making it a useful event prediction for sports analysts and prediction market watchers following NFL free agency and player destination odds.",1753621.386152,{"id":1214,"title":1215,"slug":1216,"category":82,"subcategory":86,"tags":1217,"probability":416,"createdAt":1218,"updatedAt":1219,"resolutionDate":74,"description":1220,"summary":1221,"volume1wk":1222,"featured":655},"574717","Peru Election 2nd Round: Margin of Victory? (0.1% brackets)","peru-election-2nd-round-margin-of-victory-0pt1-brackets-20260609021541549",[86,88,84,87,38],"2026-06-16T10:07:53.136Z","2026-06-16T10:04:00.168Z","The second round of the Peru presidential election is scheduled to be held on June 7, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the second round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections.\n\nFor the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.\n\nIf the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nIf two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically.\n\nThis market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.\n\nIf the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.\n\nThis market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https:\u002F\u002Fwww.onpe.gob.pe\u002Felecciones\u002F) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https:\u002F\u002Fportal.jne.gob.pe\u002Fportal\u002F)\n\nIf a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.","Peru Election 2nd Round: Margin of Victory? (0.1% brackets) is a prediction market on how narrow or wide the winning margin will be in the second round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election, scheduled for June 7, 2026. Traders are forecasting the absolute difference between the valid-vote percentages received by the first-place and second-place candidates, with the result resolved into 0.1% brackets based on official vote counts from Peru’s electoral authorities, including ONPE and JNE. This makes the market a direct election forecast rather than a simple winner selection, since it focuses on the expected outcome between the top two candidates and the final margin of victory. Current market probability is around 5%, suggesting traders assign a relatively low chance to the listed bracket outcome, though the odds can shift as election day approaches and results are reported. If the vote count is delayed or disputed, the market remains open until the official total is confirmed, and it will resolve to Other if the election outcome is not known by December 31, 2026. The market sits in the Elections category and reflects broader market sentiment on Peru politics and the global election cycle.",1651491.1064829992,{"id":1224,"title":1225,"slug":1226,"category":28,"subcategory":191,"tags":1227,"probability":848,"createdAt":1228,"updatedAt":1229,"resolutionDate":170,"description":1230,"summary":1231,"volume1wk":1232,"featured":655},"108031","US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?","us-iran-nuclear-deal-by-june-30",[191,358,29,724,38,37,33,301],"2026-05-30T10:42:45.883Z","2026-05-30T10:38:49.653Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and\u002For nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nIf such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to \"Yes\", regardless of if\u002Fwhen the agreement goes into effect.\n\nAgreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and\u002For the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.","US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? is a geopolitics prediction market on whether the United States and Iran will reach a publicly announced agreement on Iranian nuclear research and\u002For nuclear weapon development by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The event matters because any official deal, including a multilateral arrangement that names both the U.S. and Iran as parties, could affect Middle East security, diplomacy, and broader international relations. The market resolves to Yes if an agreement is officially announced before the deadline, even if implementation comes later. If no qualifying agreement is reached by the cutoff, it resolves to No. Current market probability is around 39.5%, suggesting traders see a meaningful but not dominant chance of a deal before the deadline. As with most event prediction markets, sentiment can shift quickly as negotiations, official statements, and credible reporting change the odds. This listing is closely watched by traders tracking geopolitical forecasts, Iran-related developments, and Middle East nuclear diplomacy.",1609108.003832003,{"id":1234,"title":1235,"slug":1236,"category":8,"subcategory":11,"tags":1237,"probability":848,"createdAt":1238,"updatedAt":1239,"resolutionDate":939,"description":1240,"summary":1241,"volume1wk":1242,"featured":655},"511468","France vs. Senegal - More Markets","fifwc-fra-sen-2026-06-16-more-markets",[11,12,846,9],"2026-06-16T10:07:53.220Z","2026-06-16T10:00:36.244Z","More markets for the FIFA World Cup game, scheduled for June 16 at 3:00 PM ET.","France vs. Senegal - More Markets is a prediction market tied to the FIFA World Cup matchup scheduled for June 16 at 3:00 PM ET. Rather than forecasting the match winner itself, this event covers the release or pricing of additional markets related to the game, making it relevant to traders following live market expansion and sports event prediction activity around the fixture. As a SPORTS category listing focused on soccer and FIFA World Cup action, it reflects how market sentiment develops as kickoff approaches and more data points become available. The current market probability is 39.5%, which suggests traders see a moderate chance of the expected outcome, though not a certainty. The market opens before the match and reaches its end date on June 16 at 7:00 PM ET, aligning with the game window and any late-moving odds or forecast updates. For users searching on France vs. Senegal - More Markets prediction, odds, or probability, this event summarizes interest in the broader forecast environment around one of the tournament’s scheduled games.",1604935.0453860012,{"id":1244,"title":1245,"slug":1246,"category":792,"subcategory":1141,"tags":1247,"probability":1248,"createdAt":1249,"updatedAt":1250,"resolutionDate":1251,"description":1252,"summary":1253,"volume1wk":1254,"featured":655},"518358","LoL: KT Rolster vs DN SOOPers (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2","lol-kt-dnf-2026-05-30",[1141,846,11,796],99.55,"2026-05-30T10:42:45.966Z","2026-05-30T10:39:45.826Z","2026-05-30T14:00:00.000Z","This market refers to the LoL match between KT Rolster and DN SOOPers in the LCK Rounds 1-2, initially scheduled for May 30 at 4:00AM ET.\n\nThis market will resolve to \"KT Rolster\" if KT Rolster win the match against DN SOOPers.\n\nThis market will resolve to \"DN SOOPers\" if DN SOOPers win the match against KT Rolster.\n\nIf the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. \n\nIf the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. \n\nIf the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. \n\nThe resolution source for this market will be official information from https:\u002F\u002Fgol.gg\u002Fesports\u002Fhome. However, if https:\u002F\u002Fgol.gg\u002Fesports\u002Fhome has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.\n\nIn cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.","LoL: KT Rolster vs DN SOOPers (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 is a prediction market on the outcome of this League of Legends match in the LCK Rounds 1-2. The forecast asks which team will win the best-of-three series: KT Rolster or DN SOOPers. Scheduled for May 30 at 4:00AM ET, the market resolves to KT Rolster if they win, or DN SOOPers if they take the match. If the game is canceled, ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond seven days without a winner, the market resolves 50-50 under the stated rules.\n\nAs an esports event prediction, this listing reflects trader sentiment around a high-traffic League of Legends matchup, with current market probability heavily favoring KT Rolster at 99.55%. That makes the expected outcome clear, although prediction market odds can still shift before the match is completed. Resolution is based on official results from gol.gg, with credible reporting allowed if final results are not published promptly. For users tracking esports forecast pages, this event sits within the ESports category and league of legends subcategory.",1595819.3079100002,1781606228091]