[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":479},["ShallowReactive",2],{"category-events-tech":3,"category-content-tech":180},[4,25,43,56,70,84,96,109,124,137,151,162,174,186,198,210,222,234,248,261,273,284,295,306,317,328,339,350,360,370,383,393,404,415,426,446,458,468],{"id":5,"title":6,"slug":7,"category":8,"subcategory":9,"tags":10,"probability":17,"createdAt":18,"updatedAt":19,"resolutionDate":20,"description":21,"summary":22,"volume1wk":23,"featured":24},"57711","Largest Company end of June?","largest-company-end-of-june-712","TECH","AI",[9,11,12,13,14,15,16],"Tech","Big Tech","Economy","DeepSeek","Business","Finance",89,"2026-05-30T10:42:45.353Z","2026-05-30T10:36:33.619Z","2026-06-30T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30, 2026, as of market close.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.","Largest Company end of June? is a technology prediction market asking which company will be the world’s largest by market capitalization at the June 30, 2026 market close. The forecast focuses on a single outcome: identifying the top-valued public company based on credible reporting at the deadline, rather than projecting long-term business performance. Because market cap rankings can shift quickly with earnings, AI sentiment, and broader Big Tech moves, the event draws interest from traders tracking technology, AI, business, and finance trends.\n\nAs of the latest market data, the probability for this outcome is around 89%, indicating strong market sentiment behind the leading expected result, though prediction market odds can still change before resolution. The market opened on October 10, 2025 and resolves on June 30, 2026, making it a medium-term event prediction with a clear end date. Related keywords such as largest company, technology forecast, and technology probability reflect the market’s focus on Big Tech competition and market-cap leadership.",2205699.1277590003,true,{"id":26,"title":27,"slug":28,"category":8,"subcategory":16,"tags":29,"probability":36,"createdAt":37,"updatedAt":38,"resolutionDate":39,"description":40,"summary":41,"volume1wk":42,"featured":24},"500775","Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?","will-openais-valuation-hit-by-december-31",[16,30,31,11,12,9,32,33,34,35],"Privates","llm","chatgpt","sam altman","OpenAI","OpenAI IPO",6.5,"2026-05-30T10:42:56.965Z","2026-05-30T10:34:16.260Z","2027-01-01T12:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if OpenAI's private market valuation, as measured by the NPM Price reported by Nasdaq Private Market, LLC (NPM) for any date between market creation and December 31, 2026, reaches or exceeds the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nNPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day.\n\nIf NPM has not published relevant data for all business dates in the specified period by 1:00 PM ET on January 1, 2027, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on January 4, 2027. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the data available.\n\nIf NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published for the period prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as any applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing. \n\nIf the company completes an IPO or direct listing before the end of the specified period, this market will consider, in addition to the relevant NPM valuations published between market creation and the IPO or direct listing date, the valuation implied by the official IPO or direct listing price, and the company's public market capitalization between the IPO or direct listing date and the end of the specified period.\n\nPublic market capitalization will be determined using the highest\u002Flowest official regular-hours trading price published for the company's primary listed common equity on its primary exchange for any trading day during the specified period, multiplied by the company's total outstanding common shares at the relevant time.\n\nIf the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.\n\nIf the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, only NPM valuations and applicable public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is NPM data published here (https:\u002F\u002Ffe.secondmarket.com\u002Fcompanies\u002Fcompany-30839e0b-2730-4495-839f-1bf638fa9cca\u002Fdata?return_url=https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket.com\u002Ffinance\u002Fprivates). The resolution source for any period following an IPO, direct listing, or relevant corporate action, will be official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.\n\nRevisions to previously published NPM data made after their initial release will not be considered, unless made to correct clearly erroneous data.","Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31? is a tech finance prediction market focused on whether OpenAI’s private-market valuation will reach or exceed the listed threshold by the end of 2026. The event is resolved using Nasdaq Private Market (NPM) price data, with the outcome turning on whether OpenAI’s reported private valuation hits the target on any trading day between market creation and December 31, 2026. If OpenAI goes public before then, the market also factors in the IPO or direct listing price and, afterward, public market capitalization based on official trading data and share counts. This forecast matters because OpenAI is one of the most closely watched AI companies, and its valuation reflects broader market sentiment around artificial intelligence, large language models, and the tech sector. As of the latest market data, traders assign about a 6.5% probability to a yes outcome, suggesting relatively low odds that the threshold will be reached within the timeframe. The market opens on May 19, 2026 and is scheduled to close on January 1, 2027, with a possible extension if required by delayed NPM reporting.",98053.93702400001,{"id":44,"title":45,"slug":46,"category":8,"subcategory":11,"tags":47,"probability":49,"createdAt":50,"updatedAt":51,"resolutionDate":20,"description":52,"summary":53,"volume1wk":54,"featured":55},"117916","Which companies will have a #1 AI model by June 30?","which-companies-will-have-a-1-ai-model-by-june-30",[11,9,15,14,48],"Grok",10.5,"2026-05-30T10:42:55.527Z","2026-05-30T10:40:19.799Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the listed company has the highest arena score on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https:\u002F\u002Flmarena.ai\u002F) for any amount of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nResults from the \"Arena Score\" section on the Leaderboard tab of https:\u002F\u002Flmarena.ai\u002F with the style control unchecked will be used to resolve this market.\n\nIf a listed model ties for #1 Arena score, it will suffice to resolve this market to \"Yes.\"\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https:\u002F\u002Flmarena.ai\u002F. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.\n","“Which companies will have a #1 AI model by June 30?” is a technology prediction market focused on whether any listed company will top the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard by Arena score for at least some period before June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The forecast resolves to Yes if a company’s model reaches the highest Arena score on lmarena.ai, including cases where multiple models tie for first; otherwise it resolves to No. The event centers on major AI developers and competitors in the broader tech and business ecosystem, including names such as DeepSeek and Grok-related companies, and reflects ongoing competition in large language model performance.\n\nThis market matters because the Chatbot Arena leaderboard is a widely watched benchmark for frontier model quality, making it a useful signal for AI market sentiment and relative model leadership. As of the latest update, traders are pricing the event at about 10.5% probability, suggesting a low but non-zero chance that a company will briefly or persistently claim the top spot before the deadline. The event prediction will be determined by the leaderboard’s Arena Score section, with resolution tied to the official Chatbot Arena source.",118988.89591899999,false,{"id":57,"title":58,"slug":59,"category":8,"subcategory":11,"tags":60,"probability":63,"createdAt":64,"updatedAt":65,"resolutionDate":66,"description":67,"summary":68,"volume1wk":69,"featured":55},"425601","Elon Musk wins $10b+ settlement against Altman\u002FOpenAI?","elon-musk-wins-10b-settlement-against-altmanopenai",[11,34,9,12,61,62],"Courts","Musk v Altman",1.4,"2026-05-30T10:43:10.537Z","2026-05-30T10:40:13.029Z","2026-12-31T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Elon Musk is awarded or receives at least $10,000,000,000 USD in the initial trial of Musk v. Altman et al., Case No. 4:24-cv-04722-YGR (U.S. District Court, Northern District of California), by 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nQualifying amounts include monetary damages or payments awarded via jury verdict, court judgment, or settlement reached during or prior to the initial trial proceedings. Only cash or cash-equivalent compensation payable to Elon Musk (or entities controlled by him) will be counted. Non-monetary relief will not count.\n\nIf a mistrial is declared, or if the initial trial concludes without Elon Musk receiving at least $10,000,000,000 USD, this market will resolve to \"No\". Any retrial, appeal, or subsequent proceedings will not be considered for this market.\n\nIf Elon Musk is awarded or receives at least $10,000,000,000 USD during the initial trial proceedings, this market will immediately resolve to \"Yes\".\n\nThe primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. court system. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.","Elon Musk wins $10b+ settlement against Altman\u002FOpenAI? is a technology prediction market tracking the outcome of Musk v. Altman et al. in the U.S. District Court for the Northern District of California. The market asks whether Elon Musk will be awarded or receive at least $10 billion in cash or cash-equivalent compensation in the initial trial proceedings, whether through a jury verdict, court judgment, or settlement. Non-monetary relief does not count, and later appeals or retrials are excluded from resolution.\n\nThe forecast matters because it sits at the intersection of Big Tech, AI, and the courts, with OpenAI, Sam Altman, and Elon Musk central to the dispute. Traders are effectively pricing the probability that the initial trial will produce a settlement or award at or above the $10 billion threshold before the market deadline of December 31, 2026. Current market probability is about 1.4%, suggesting very low odds of that expected outcome at present. Resolution will rely primarily on official court information, with credible reporting used as a secondary source.",25622.664697,{"id":71,"title":72,"slug":73,"category":8,"subcategory":74,"tags":75,"probability":77,"createdAt":78,"updatedAt":79,"resolutionDate":80,"description":81,"summary":82,"volume1wk":83,"featured":55},"414512","# of ChatGPT Outage Days in May 2026?","of-chatgpt-outage-days-in-may-2026","gpt",[74,32,34,9,11,76],"outage",91.5,"2026-05-30T10:43:19.726Z","2026-05-30T10:39:12.677Z","2026-05-31T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to the number of calendar days on which OpenAI's ChatGPT experiences any incident classified as 'Partial\u002FFull Outage' as of the time it is marked as “Resolved” during May 2026 (ET).\n\nOnly incidents listing ChatGPT under 'Affected components' will be considered. Incidents labeled as affecting 'APIs,' or 'Sora,' but not ChatGPT, will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.\n\nClassifications of an incident while it is ongoing will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. Only classifications of events that are resolved will be considered.\n\nQualifying incidents include outages and other issues classified as 'Partial\u002FFull Outage' when they are resolved, during this market's above-specified timeframe. \n\nRevisions that upgrade an incident’s impact classification to 'Partial\u002FFull Outage' will qualify if the incident was resolved and the revision is published within this market’s timeframe.\n\nThis market will resolve at 12:00 PM ET on the day following the specified timeframe, provided no incident that began during the specified timeframe is ongoing, and all relevant data has been released. If either condition is not met, the market will remain open until the incident is marked as “Resolved” and all relevant data has been released. If all relevant data has not been released by the end of the seventh day after the specified timeframe, this market will resolve based on the data available at that time.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official system status information published by OpenAI on status.openai.com; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.","# of ChatGPT Outage Days in May 2026? is a technology prediction market forecasting how many calendar days in May 2026 OpenAI’s ChatGPT will have at least one incident classified as a “Partial\u002FFull Outage.” The market resolves only for incidents that list ChatGPT under affected components and are marked resolved during the month, with OpenAI’s status page on status.openai.com as the primary source. Outages affecting APIs or Sora alone do not count toward the tally. This event matters because it tracks ChatGPT reliability, a key issue for users, developers, and AI platform monitoring. The forecasted outcome is the total number of qualifying outage days, not the number of incidents. The market runs through May 31, 2026, with resolution expected after the period ends once all relevant data is available. Current market probability is 91.5%, suggesting traders broadly expect at least one qualifying outage day, though the final result will depend on resolved incident classifications. As a prediction market, it reflects market sentiment on ChatGPT uptime, OpenAI operational stability, and the likelihood of visible service disruptions during the month.",15083.422743000001,{"id":85,"title":86,"slug":87,"category":8,"subcategory":9,"tags":88,"probability":89,"createdAt":90,"updatedAt":91,"resolutionDate":92,"description":93,"summary":94,"volume1wk":95,"featured":55},"425249","GPT-5.6 released by...?","gpt-5pt6-released-by",[9,34,11,74],1.1,"2026-05-30T10:42:52.817Z","2026-05-30T10:38:50.708Z","2026-07-31T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if OpenAI's GPT-5.6 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nGPT-5.6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.6, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to GPT-5.5, similar to the progression from GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2. (e.g., GPT-5.7, GPT-5.8, etc., would qualify toward a \"Yes\" resolution to this market)\n \nQualifying releases of task-specialized models (e.g., GPT-Codex\u002FTranscribe), cost-efficiency variants (e.g., Nano\u002FMini), or reasoning models of the o-series family will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation GPT-6 or similar will NOT qualify.\n\nFor this market to resolve to \"Yes,\" a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. \n\nThe release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.","GPT-5.6 released by...? is a technology prediction market centered on whether OpenAI will make a model explicitly named GPT-5.6 publicly available by the market deadline of July 31, 2026 ET. Traders are forecasting the expected outcome based on official OpenAI announcements, public website availability, and credible reporting that confirms a qualifying release.\n\nThe market’s resolution rules are specific: a Yes outcome requires a publicly accessible launch, including open beta or an open rolling waitlist, while private or closed access would not count. Qualifying releases may include direct successors to GPT-5.5, as well as task-specialized, cost-efficient, or reasoning variants tied to the GPT-5.6 family. A new flagship labeled GPT-6 would not satisfy the forecast.\n\nThis event matters because OpenAI model naming and release timing are closely watched signals in the AI sector, shaping market sentiment around product cadence, capability upgrades, and platform strategy. Current market probability is about 1.1%, suggesting traders see a low chance of a qualifying release before the deadline.",175807.274012,{"id":97,"title":98,"slug":99,"category":8,"subcategory":12,"tags":100,"probability":103,"createdAt":104,"updatedAt":105,"resolutionDate":80,"description":106,"summary":107,"volume1wk":108,"featured":55},"376520","Which company has the best AI model end of May?","which-company-has-the-best-ai-model-end-of-may",[12,11,101,9,102],"Rewards 50, 4.5, 100","Gemini",0.15,"2026-05-30T10:42:46.659Z","2026-05-30T10:38:44.079Z","This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https:\u002F\u002Flmarena.ai\u002F) when the table under the \"Leaderboard\" tab is checked on May 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.\n\nResults from the \"Rank\" column under the \"Text Arena | Overall\" Leaderboard tab at https:\u002F\u002Flmarena.ai\u002Fleaderboard\u002Ftext with style control off will be used to resolve this market.\n\nModels will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https:\u002F\u002Flmarena.ai\u002F. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.","Which company has the best AI model end of May? is a prediction market focused on the leading company in the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard at the end of the month. The market resolves using the \"Text Arena | Overall\" ranking on lmarena.ai, with the leaderboard checked on May 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET, and the company whose model sits in first place under the stated ranking rules is the expected outcome. This makes it a timely AI and Big Tech forecast tied directly to model performance rather than public perception alone.\n\nThe resolution process uses the leaderboard rank first, then Arena score as a tiebreaker, and finally company name order if needed. Because the event centers on frontier AI models from major tech companies, market sentiment can shift quickly as traders react to new benchmark results, leaderboard updates, and model releases. Current market probability is around 15%, suggesting the market does not see the outcome as strongly one-sided. For traders and search users alike, this event prediction is a straightforward way to track which company is most likely to lead the AI model race by month-end.",1198537.4213079999,{"id":110,"title":111,"slug":112,"category":8,"subcategory":113,"tags":114,"probability":118,"createdAt":119,"updatedAt":120,"resolutionDate":66,"description":121,"summary":122,"volume1wk":123,"featured":55},"192962","Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by...?","tesla-and-spacex-merger-officially-announced-by-june-30","Tesla",[113,115,116,12,117,11],"Elon Musk","SpaceX","Space",5.65,"2026-05-30T10:42:55.350Z","2026-05-30T10:38:12.053Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if it is officially announced that Tesla, Inc. will be, has been, or is being acquired by or merged with SpaceX, or vice versa, by the listed date, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nAn announcement by Tesla or SpaceX within this market's timeframe will qualify for a \"Yes\" resolution, regardless of whether or when the announced acquisition\u002Fmerger actually occurs.\n\nAnnouncements of partial sales may count, as long as the acquiring company acquires a controlling interest in the other company. A “controlling interest” refers to a change in ownership sufficient to control the company’s strategic decisions (typically more than 50% of equity, or equivalent control via voting and governance rights). Transactions or investments that do not result in a transfer of controlling interest will not count.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Tesla or SpaceX; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.","Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by...? is a technology prediction market tracking whether Tesla, Inc. and SpaceX will publicly announce a merger or controlling-acquisition deal by the market’s deadline of December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The forecast is straightforward: traders are betting on whether either company will officially state that one is being acquired by, or merged with, the other, including a transaction that gives one side controlling interest. Partial sales only count if they transfer control, while smaller investments do not. Official statements from Tesla or SpaceX are the primary resolution source, with credible reporting also considered if needed. Current market probability sits at 5.65%, indicating low expected odds that such an announcement will happen within the timeframe. That makes the event a closely watched Elon Musk-linked tech forecast, with market sentiment reflecting skepticism around a near-term Tesla-SpaceX combination. As a prediction market event, it draws interest from traders following Big Tech, space industry, and corporate M&A developments.",122284.76683100004,{"id":125,"title":126,"slug":127,"category":8,"subcategory":11,"tags":128,"probability":131,"createdAt":132,"updatedAt":133,"resolutionDate":80,"description":134,"summary":135,"volume1wk":136,"featured":55},"414034","Which company has the best Coding AI model end of May?","which-company-has-the-best-coding-ai-model-end-of-may",[11,129,130,9],"Coding","Rewards 20, 4.5, 50",98.6,"2026-05-30T10:43:06.853Z","2026-05-30T10:38:10.036Z","This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https:\u002F\u002Flmarena.ai\u002F) when the table under the \"Leaderboard\" tab for \"Coding\" is checked on May 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.\n\nResults from the \"Rank\" column under the \"Text Arena | Coding\" Leaderboard tab at https:\u002F\u002Farena.ai\u002Fleaderboard\u002Ftext\u002Fcoding-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market.\n\nModels will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https:\u002F\u002Flmarena.ai\u002F. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.","Which company has the best Coding AI model end of May? is a tech prediction market focused on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard’s Coding category. The market forecasts which company will own the model ranked first on the Arena’s Text Arena | Coding leaderboard when it is checked on May 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. In practical terms, traders are betting on which AI lab or company will finish the month with the top coding model based on the leaderboard’s ranking and tie-breaking rules.\n\nThe resolution uses the Chatbot Arena leaderboard at lmarena.ai, with the model owning the highest-ranked entry declared the winner. If models are tied on rank, Arena score is used, followed by granular score data and then company name ordering as a final tiebreaker. This makes the event a clear event prediction tied to a specific external benchmark rather than a subjective judgment.\n\nCurrent market probability is about 98.6%, indicating strong market sentiment around the expected outcome, though the result still depends on the leaderboard at the end-of-May check. The market began on April 27, 2026 and closes on May 31, 2026.",34715.016422,{"id":138,"title":139,"slug":140,"category":8,"subcategory":141,"tags":142,"probability":144,"createdAt":145,"updatedAt":146,"resolutionDate":147,"description":148,"summary":149,"volume1wk":150,"featured":55},"314315","Claude Mythos released by…?","claude-mythos-released-by","anthropic",[141,11,9,143],"Claude",0,"2026-05-30T10:42:56.799Z","2026-05-30T10:37:45.464Z","2026-04-30T00:00:00.000Z","A data leak on March 26, 2026, exposed Anthropic's unreleased \"Claude Mythos\" model, described as their most capable yet with significant advances in coding, reasoning, and cybersecurity, which the company has confirmed is now in early access testing. You can read more about that here: https:\u002F\u002Ffortune.com\u002F2026\u002F03\u002F26\u002Fanthropic-says-testing-mythos-powerful-new-ai-model-after-data-leak-reveals-its-existence-step-change-in-capabilities\u002F.\n\nThis market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Anthropic releases \"Claude Mythos\" or a model confirmed to be the same model referenced in the leak described above, and that model is made available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nA qualifying model must be named \"Claude Mythos\" (e.g., Claude Mythos 1, Claude Mythos 5, Claude Mythos X, would count) or be confirmed to be the same model referenced in the leak by Anthropic or by a consensus of credible reporting.\n\nProducts labeled as Claude Haiku, Sonnet, and Opus 4.7\u002F5.0 or similar will not count for this market's resolution unless they are confirmed to be the same model referenced in the leak.\n\nFor this market to resolve to \"Yes,\" the qualifying model (as defined above) must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public.\n\nIf a qualifying model is made publicly accessible and labeled with the relevant version name within the company’s official website, this will qualify as “publicly announced”. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public under the rules will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic; however,  a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.","Claude Mythos released by…? is a technology prediction market focused on whether Anthropic will publicly release its rumored Claude Mythos AI model by the listed deadline. The market is based on a March 26, 2026 data leak that revealed details about an unreleased Anthropic model described as especially strong in coding, reasoning, and cybersecurity. Anthropic later confirmed it was testing the model in early access, making the release question materially relevant for AI watchers and prediction market traders. \n\nFor this event to resolve Yes, a qualifying model named Claude Mythos — or a model confirmed by Anthropic or credible reporting to be the same leaked model — must be publicly accessible to the general public, not just available through a closed beta or private testing. The forecast centers on the expected outcome of an official public launch, with resolution tied to Anthropic’s own announcements or consensus reporting. \n\nThe market runs from March 27, 2026 through April 30, 2026 ET. Current market probability is not available in the provided data, but the event has active volume and open interest, making it a closely watched AI and Anthropic forecast.",98854.09652399996,{"id":152,"title":153,"slug":154,"category":8,"subcategory":9,"tags":155,"probability":144,"createdAt":157,"updatedAt":158,"resolutionDate":147,"description":159,"summary":160,"volume1wk":161,"featured":55},"36308","Claude 5 released by…?","claude-5-released-by",[9,11,156],"Claude 5","2026-05-30T10:42:48.289Z","2026-05-30T10:36:27.841Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Anthropic's Claude 5 model is made available to the general public by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nFor this market to resolve to \"Yes,\" Claude 5 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public.\n\nClaude 5 refers to a product explicitly named Claude 5 (e.g. Claude 5.0 would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to Claude 4, similar to the progression from Claude 2 to Claude 3. Products labeled as Claude 4.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.","Claude 5 released by…? is a technology prediction market tracking whether Anthropic will make Claude 5 available to the general public by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. The market resolves to Yes only if Anthropic publicly launches a product explicitly named Claude 5, or a clearly recognized successor to Claude 4, with broad public access such as an open beta or open rolling waitlist. Private or closed beta access does not qualify. For this event prediction, traders are forecasting the timing and scope of Anthropic’s next major AI model release, which matters because Claude is a prominent competitor in the AI and large language model sector. The current market probability is 0%, indicating no priced-in expectation of a qualifying release at the moment, though prediction market sentiment can change quickly as new product announcements or credible reporting emerge. The market began on August 7, 2025 and is scheduled to run through April 30, 2026, with official Anthropic disclosures serving as the primary resolution source.",635833.2265890003,{"id":163,"title":164,"slug":165,"category":8,"subcategory":16,"tags":166,"probability":167,"createdAt":168,"updatedAt":169,"resolutionDate":170,"description":171,"summary":172,"volume1wk":173,"featured":55},"500550","Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by June 30?","will-openais-valuation-hit-by-june-30",[16,30,32,31,9,34,33,11,12,35],1.55,"2026-05-30T10:43:00.112Z","2026-05-30T10:35:59.848Z","2026-07-01T12:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if OpenAI's private market valuation, as measured by the NPM Price reported by Nasdaq Private Market, LLC (NPM) for any date between market creation and June 30, 2026, reaches or exceeds the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nNPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day.\n\nIf NPM has not published relevant data for all business dates in the specified period by 1:00 PM ET on July 1, 2026, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on July 4, 2026. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the data available.\n\nIf NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published for the period prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as any applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing.\n\nIf the company completes an IPO or direct listing before the end of the specified period, this market will consider, in addition to the relevant NPM valuations published between market creation and the IPO or direct listing date, the valuation implied by the official IPO or direct listing price, and the company's public market capitalization between the IPO or direct listing date and the end of the specified period.\n\nPublic market capitalization will be determined using the highest\u002Flowest official regular-hours trading price published for the company's primary listed common equity on its primary exchange for any trading day during the specified period, multiplied by the company's total outstanding common shares at the relevant time.\n\nIf the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.\n\nIf the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, only NPM valuations and applicable public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is NPM data published here: (https:\u002F\u002Ffe.secondmarket.com\u002Fcompanies\u002Fcompany-30839e0b-2730-4495-839f-1bf638fa9cca\u002Fdata?return_url=https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket.com\u002Ffinance\u002Fprivates). The resolution source for any period following an IPO, direct listing, or relevant corporate action, will be official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.\n\nRevisions to previously published NPM data made after their initial release will not be considered, unless made to correct clearly erroneous data.","Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by June 30? is a technology finance prediction market tracking whether OpenAI’s private market valuation will reach or exceed a specified threshold before the end of the forecast window. The event is tied to Nasdaq Private Market (NPM) data, which reports OpenAI’s private valuation on trading days, with the resolution period running from market creation through June 30, 2026. If NPM data is delayed or discontinued, the market’s rules allow for additional time and alternate resolution methods based on available public information or, if applicable, IPO or direct listing data.\n\nThis event matters because OpenAI is one of the most closely watched companies in AI, and its valuation is often viewed as a signal for broader market sentiment around artificial intelligence, private tech funding, and late-stage startup pricing. Traders in this prediction market are effectively forecasting the company’s expected outcome against a valuation benchmark, rather than its product launches or revenue.\n\nCurrent market probability stands at 1.55%, suggesting low odds that OpenAI’s valuation will hit the listed level by the deadline. The market remains active through July 1, 2026, with final resolution possible later if NPM reporting gaps need to be settled.",63443.371187000004,{"id":175,"title":176,"slug":177,"category":8,"subcategory":178,"tags":179,"probability":180,"createdAt":181,"updatedAt":182,"resolutionDate":80,"description":183,"summary":184,"volume1wk":185,"featured":55},"414003","Best Chinese AI Company end of May?","best-chinese-ai-company-end-of-may","China",[178,11,130],null,"2026-05-30T10:42:56.882Z","2026-05-30T10:35:05.887Z","This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank among primarily Chinese companies, based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https:\u002F\u002Flmarena.ai\u002F) when the table under the \"Leaderboard\" tab is checked on May 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.\n\nResults from the \"Rank\" column under the \"Text Arena | Overall\" Leaderboard tab at https:\u002F\u002Flmarena.ai\u002Fleaderboard\u002Ftext with style control off will be used to resolve this market.\n\nQualifying Chinese Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Meituan” would be ranked ahead of “Xiaomi”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https:\u002F\u002Flmarena.ai\u002F. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.","Best Chinese AI Company end of May? is a prediction market about which primarily Chinese AI company will rank first on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard at the market’s check time on May 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. The forecast resolves using the “Text Arena | Overall” leaderboard on lmarena.ai, with style control turned off, and the winning outcome is the company whose model holds the top spot among qualifying Chinese companies. If two models are tied on rank, the market uses Arena score as the next tiebreaker, followed by company name in alphabetical order. This makes the event a focused technology forecast tied to real-world model performance, not general reputation or funding. Market sentiment is therefore driven by the latest leaderboard results, as traders assess which Chinese AI lab or company is most likely to finish May in first place. Since no explicit probability is provided, the odds must be inferred from trading activity and current market expectations rather than a published estimate. The event runs through the end of May 2026 and is relevant for anyone tracking China tech, AI model benchmarks, and event prediction markets.",98662.230173,{"id":187,"title":188,"slug":189,"category":8,"subcategory":9,"tags":190,"probability":191,"createdAt":192,"updatedAt":193,"resolutionDate":194,"description":195,"summary":196,"volume1wk":197,"featured":55},"507756","Best AI model on May 30? (Style Control Off)","best-ai-model-on-may-30-style-control-off",[9,11],95.4,"2026-05-30T10:43:07.765Z","2026-05-30T10:34:32.197Z","2026-05-30T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https:\u002F\u002Flmarena.ai\u002F) when the table under the \"Leaderboard\" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.\n\nResults from the \"Rank\" column under the \"Text Arena | Overall\" Leaderboard tab at https:\u002F\u002Flmarena.ai\u002Fleaderboard\u002Ftext with style control off will be used to resolve this market.\n\nNo new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the \"Other\" option.\n\nModels will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https:\u002F\u002Flmarena.ai\u002F. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.","Best AI model on May 30? (Style Control Off) is a technology prediction market focused on which model will rank highest on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard at 12:00 PM ET on May 30. The event uses the “Text Arena | Overall” leaderboard with style control off, and it resolves to the model with the top rank at the check time, using Arena score and tie-break rules if needed. Because no new model can be added after market creation, the forecast is limited to the listed models and an “Other” option for anything not explicitly included. This makes the market a direct read on current market sentiment around leading AI systems and their relative performance in the AI leaderboard ecosystem. The outcome matters to traders and AI observers because Chatbot Arena rankings are widely used as a benchmark for model quality, making this an event prediction tied to real-time competitive standing rather than a subjective opinion. As of the latest market data, the probability for the expected outcome is 95.4%, suggesting traders strongly favor a specific leader, though the result still depends on the leaderboard snapshot at the scheduled deadline.",33320.880109,{"id":199,"title":200,"slug":201,"category":8,"subcategory":9,"tags":202,"probability":144,"createdAt":204,"updatedAt":205,"resolutionDate":206,"description":207,"summary":208,"volume1wk":209,"featured":55},"138732","VEO 4 released by...?","veo-4-released-by",[9,11,203],"google","2026-05-30T10:43:16.631Z","2026-05-30T10:34:27.189Z","2026-03-31T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if  Google DeepMind's Veo 4 model is made available to the general public by the listed date (ET). \n\nFor this market to resolve to \"Yes,\" Veo 4 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public.\n\nVeo 4 refers to a product explicitly named Veo 4, Veo 4.0, or one that is recognized as a successor to Veo 3, similar to the progression from Veo 2 to Veo 3. Products labeled as Veo 3.2, Veo 3.5, or similar will not count for this market's resolution.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.","VEO 4 released by...? is a technology prediction market focused on whether Google DeepMind will make Veo 4 publicly available by the listed deadline. Traders are forecasting the expected outcome for a specific AI launch: the market resolves to Yes only if a product explicitly named Veo 4, Veo 4.0, or a clearly identified successor to Veo 3 is released to the general public. Private access, closed beta programs, or limited invite-only testing do not qualify. The event matters because Veo is part of Google’s fast-moving generative video AI lineup, and a public release would signal a major step in the AI product race. The market runs from January 5, 2026 through March 31, 2026 (ET). Current probability data is not available, so market sentiment and odds cannot be measured from the provided figures. Resolution is expected to rely primarily on official Google announcements, with credible reporting used for verification.",18111.463532,{"id":211,"title":212,"slug":213,"category":8,"subcategory":11,"tags":214,"probability":216,"createdAt":217,"updatedAt":218,"resolutionDate":20,"description":219,"summary":220,"volume1wk":221,"featured":55},"57705","Which company has best AI model end of June?","which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-june",[11,12,215,48,34,9],"GPT-5",13.5,"2026-05-30T10:42:46.365Z","2026-05-30T10:34:07.757Z","This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https:\u002F\u002Flmarena.ai\u002F) when the table under the \"Leaderboard\" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.\n\nResults from the \"Rank\" section on the Leaderboard tab of https:\u002F\u002Flmarena.ai\u002Fleaderboard\u002Ftext with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.\n\nModels will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https:\u002F\u002Flmarena.ai\u002F. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.","Which company has best AI model end of June? is a technology prediction market that asks traders to forecast which company will own the top-ranked model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard at the June 30, 2026 check time. The market resolves using the “Rank” section on lmarena.ai\u002Fleaderboard\u002Ftext, with the style control off, and the first-place company under the event’s ranking rules is the expected outcome. If models are tied, Arena score is used, including underlying granular values, and a company-name tiebreaker applies if needed. The relevant deadline is June 30, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET, when the leaderboard snapshot is taken. This event sits at the intersection of AI, Big Tech, and foundation-model competition, with companies such as OpenAI, xAI, and other major model developers potentially in focus. Current market sentiment shows a probability of 13.5% for the leading outcome, indicating that traders see the forecast as possible but far from certain. The event is closely watched because leaderboard position on Chatbot Arena is a widely followed signal of model performance and industry momentum.",1313459.0318739992,{"id":223,"title":224,"slug":225,"category":8,"subcategory":203,"tags":226,"probability":228,"createdAt":229,"updatedAt":230,"resolutionDate":66,"description":231,"summary":232,"volume1wk":233,"featured":55},"206787","Which company's AI will first hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?","which-companys-ai-will-first-hit-1550-on-chatbot-arena-in-2026",[203,34,9,14,74,227,11,12,141],"xAI",1.6,"2026-05-30T10:43:21.671Z","2026-05-30T10:33:50.985Z","This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https:\u002F\u002Flmarena.ai\u002F) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. \n\nResults from the \"Text Arena\" section on the leaderboard\u002Ftext tab of https:\u002F\u002Flmarena.ai\u002F with the style control unchecked (https:\u002F\u002Farena.ai\u002Fleaderboard\u002Ftext\u002Foverall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.\n\nIf no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to \"None in 2026\".\n\nIf the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to \"Other\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https:\u002F\u002Flmarena.ai\u002F. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.","Which company's AI will first hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026? is a technology prediction market focused on which major AI lab will be the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550 or higher on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard. The event is tied to the public leaderboard at lmarena.ai and resolves using the Text Arena results with style control unchecked. If no listed company reaches that score by December 31, 2026, the market resolves to “None in 2026”; if a non-listed company is first, it resolves to “Other.”\n\nThe forecast draws interest from traders tracking Google, OpenAI, Anthropic, xAI, DeepSeek, and other Big Tech AI developers, since the outcome reflects model performance, leaderboard momentum, and market sentiment around frontier LLM progress. With the current market probability at 1.6%, the odds suggest traders see this threshold as a low-likelihood but notable event prediction. The market starts in February 2026 and remains open through the end-of-year deadline, making it a clear AI benchmark watchlist item for 2026.",13155.69988,{"id":235,"title":236,"slug":237,"category":8,"subcategory":11,"tags":238,"probability":242,"createdAt":243,"updatedAt":244,"resolutionDate":20,"description":245,"summary":246,"volume1wk":247,"featured":55},"192925","Tesla and xAI merger officially announced by June 30?","tesla-and-xai-merger-officially-announced-by-june-30",[11,239,15,240,241,12,115,13,113],"Climate & Science","Science","M&A",4.25,"2026-05-30T10:43:18.862Z","2026-05-30T10:33:31.406Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if it is officially announced that Tesla, Inc. will be, has been, or is being acquired by or merged with xAI, or vice versa, by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nAn announcement by Tesla or xAI within this market's timeframe will qualify for a \"Yes\" resolution, regardless of whether or when the announced acquisition\u002Fmerger actually occurs.\n\nAnnouncements of partial sales may count, as long as the acquiring company acquires a controlling interest in the other company. A “controlling interest” refers to a change in ownership sufficient to control the company’s strategic decisions (typically more than 50% of equity, or equivalent control via voting and governance rights). Transactions or investments that do not result in a transfer of controlling interest will not count.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Tesla or xAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.","Tesla and xAI merger officially announced by June 30? is a technology prediction market focused on whether Tesla, Inc. and xAI will officially announce an acquisition or merger by June 30, 2026. The market resolves to Yes if Tesla or xAI publicly confirms that one company will be acquired by, merged with, or otherwise come under the control of the other within the deadline, including transactions that give a controlling interest. Partial sales only count if they create that level of control.\n\nThis event matters because it sits at the intersection of Big Tech, M&A, Elon Musk, and the broader business and science landscape. Traders are forecasting the odds that a major corporate move involving Tesla and xAI will be disclosed before the end date, with market sentiment currently pricing in a low probability of 4.25%. The forecast is based primarily on official statements from Tesla or xAI, though credible reporting may also influence resolution if needed.\n\nWith the market open from January 29, 2026 to June 30, 2026, participants are watching for any announcement that would satisfy the event prediction.",16213.632175000004,{"id":249,"title":250,"slug":251,"category":8,"subcategory":11,"tags":252,"probability":255,"createdAt":256,"updatedAt":257,"resolutionDate":20,"description":258,"summary":259,"volume1wk":260,"featured":55},"449384","Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by...?","trump-orders-federal-review-for-ai-model-releases-by-may-31",[11,34,9,253,143,254,141,12],"Trump","Politics",2.65,"2026-05-30T10:43:20.937Z","2026-05-30T10:33:06.591Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump signs any federal legislation into law or performs any executive action that creates, authorizes, or directs a federal government review process for the public release of new artificial intelligence models by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”\n\nA qualifying action must create a federal process for reviewing or approving the public release of new artificial intelligence models. A qualifying review process may apply to artificial intelligence models generally, only to models meeting specified criteria (e.g.capability, safety, cybersecurity, national-security, or other risk-based criteria), or to models selected for review at the discretion of the federal government.\n\nLegislation or executive actions which create a group or committee responsible for overseeing artificial intelligence matters will only qualify if they explicitly create a qualifying review process.\n\nNon-binding statements, proposals, unconfirmed reports, or federal review of artificial intelligence models solely for government procurement or internal government use will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.","Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by...? is a technology prediction market focused on whether Donald Trump will sign legislation or take executive action that creates a federal review process for the public release of new artificial intelligence models by the deadline. The forecast is narrowly defined: a qualifying action must establish an official U.S. government process to review or approve model releases, not just a committee, non-binding statement, or internal government procurement rule. The market resolves by 11:59 PM ET on the listed date, with official federal information as the primary source and credible reporting as a fallback. Current market probability is about 2.65%, suggesting traders assign low odds to this event occurring. That market sentiment reflects the challenge of moving from broad AI policy debate to a concrete federal approval or review mechanism. The outcome matters for AI policy, Big Tech, and companies such as OpenAI and Anthropic because a federal review framework could affect how new models are released in the U.S. This event prediction sits at the intersection of politics, technology, and regulation, making it a closely watched AI forecast for prediction market traders.",14131.663675999996,{"id":262,"title":263,"slug":264,"category":8,"subcategory":9,"tags":265,"probability":267,"createdAt":268,"updatedAt":269,"resolutionDate":80,"description":270,"summary":271,"volume1wk":272,"featured":55},"414059","Which company has the best Math AI model end of May?","which-company-has-the-best-math-ai-model-end-of-may",[9,130,11,266],"Math",7,"2026-05-30T10:42:52.121Z","2026-05-30T10:32:28.191Z","This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https:\u002F\u002Flmarena.ai\u002F) when the table under the \"Leaderboard\" tab for \"Math\" is checked on May 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.\n\nResults from the \"Rank\" column under the \"Text Arena | Math\" Leaderboard tab at https:\u002F\u002Farena.ai\u002Fleaderboard\u002Ftext\u002Fmath-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market.\n\nModels will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https:\u002F\u002Flmarena.ai\u002F. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.","Which company has the best Math AI model end of May? is a technology prediction market focused on which AI company will own the top-ranked math model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard at the May 31, 2026 check time. The market resolves using the “Text Arena | Math” leaderboard with style control off, and the company whose model holds first place at 12:00 PM ET is the forecasted winner. If models are tied on rank, the resolution follows Arena score, including granular score values, with company name used only as a final tiebreaker. This makes the event a direct test of market sentiment around math-focused AI performance rather than general model popularity. Traders are effectively pricing the expected outcome of the leaderboard snapshot, using prediction market odds to estimate which company will lead at the deadline. The current market probability stands at 7%, indicating the market currently assigns a relatively low chance to this outcome. Because the resolution depends on a specific public leaderboard and a fixed end-of-May timeframe, the event is closely watched by AI and tech followers tracking benchmark performance, model competition, and short-term shifts in leaderboard rankings.",218432.781042,{"id":274,"title":275,"slug":276,"category":8,"subcategory":9,"tags":277,"probability":278,"createdAt":279,"updatedAt":280,"resolutionDate":80,"description":281,"summary":282,"volume1wk":283,"featured":55},"376442","Which company has the #1 AI model end of May? (Style Control On)","which-company-has-the-1-ai-model-end-of-may-style-control-on",[9,101,12,11],0.25,"2026-05-30T10:43:05.113Z","2026-05-30T10:32:22.037Z","This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank (Style Control On) based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https:\u002F\u002Flmarena.ai\u002F) when the table under the \"Leaderboard\" tab is checked on May 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.\n\nResults from the \"Rank\" column under the \"Text Arena | Overall\" Leaderboard tab at https:\u002F\u002Flmarena.ai\u002Fleaderboard\u002Ftext with style control on will be used to resolve this market.\n\nModels will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https:\u002F\u002Flmarena.ai\u002F. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.","Which company has the #1 AI model end of May? (Style Control On) is a technology prediction market tracking which AI company will hold the top spot on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard. The forecast resolves to the company whose model ranks first on the \"Text Arena | Overall\" leaderboard with style control on, based on the rank column checked on May 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. If models are tied, the market uses Arena score and then company name as tiebreakers.\n\nThis event matters because the Chatbot Arena leaderboard is a widely watched benchmark for comparing large language models from major AI and Big Tech companies. Traders are effectively pricing the expected outcome for who will lead the leaderboard at the check time, making this an AI-focused event prediction with clear timing and a defined resolution source.\n\nThe current market probability for the leading outcome is about 25%, suggesting traders see the result as competitive rather than settled. The market is active in the TECH \u002F AI category and reflects broader sentiment around which company currently has the strongest model performance at the end of May.",41365.92147,{"id":285,"title":286,"slug":287,"category":8,"subcategory":9,"tags":288,"probability":289,"createdAt":290,"updatedAt":291,"resolutionDate":20,"description":292,"summary":293,"volume1wk":294,"featured":55},"428664","New Gemini reasoning flagship released by...?","new-gemini-reasoning-flagship-released-by",[9,11,203,102],0.4,"2026-05-30T10:43:12.768Z","2026-05-30T10:32:21.962Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Google releases or makes available a new Gemini reasoning flagship model to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nQualifying models must be positioned by Google as a next-generation, reasoning-focused flagship within the Gemini model line. For example, qualifying models include newly released or newly made generally available (GA) reasoning-focused flagship models (e.g, Gemini 3.1 GA), or any new Pro, Deep Think, or Ultra variants (e.g., Gemini 3.2 Pro, Gemini 3.4 Deep Think, Gemini 4 Ultra).\n\nModels explicitly positioned for speed, efficiency, or low-cost inference that compromise reasoning capability will NOT qualify. This includes, but is not limited to, variants such as Gemini Flash, Flash-lite, Nano, or similar lightweight or latency-optimized models, even if released under a new Gemini version number.\n\nSpecialized models for non-text modalities such as video generation (e.g., Veo), image generation (e.g., Imagen, Nano Banana), music generation (e.g., Lyria), or robotics (e.g., Gemini Robotics) will NOT qualify, even if released under a qualifying Gemini version number. \n\nA qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.","New Gemini reasoning flagship released by...? is a technology prediction market tracking whether Google will release or make generally available a new Gemini reasoning-focused flagship model by the specified date. The market is centered on a Yes\u002FNo forecast: traders are betting on whether Google launches a next-generation Gemini model positioned as a flagship for reasoning, such as a new Pro, Deep Think, or Ultra variant. Lightweight releases like Gemini Flash, Flash-lite, or Nano do not qualify, and neither do non-text systems such as Veo, Imagen, Lyria, or Gemini Robotics.\n\nThe event matters because it offers a real-time view of market sentiment around Google’s AI roadmap and the pace of Gemini upgrades. A qualifying release must be publicly accessible, including through open beta or a public waitlist, and the primary resolution source is official Google information, supported by credible reporting. The market currently assigns about 40% probability to a qualifying release. The forecast runs from April 30, 2026, through June 30, 2026, giving traders a defined window to assess whether Google meets the event’s strict product and availability criteria.",22217.765838,{"id":296,"title":297,"slug":298,"category":8,"subcategory":156,"tags":299,"probability":300,"createdAt":301,"updatedAt":302,"resolutionDate":20,"description":303,"summary":304,"volume1wk":305,"featured":55},"191747","Claude score on Humanity’s Last Exam by June 30?","anthropic-claude-score-on-humanitys-last-exam-by-june-30",[156,15,143,11,12,9],100,"2026-05-30T10:43:09.396Z","2026-05-30T10:32:20.593Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard lists any Anthropic Claude model with a score of at least the specified score by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard https:\u002F\u002Fscale.com\u002Fleaderboard\u002Fhumanitys_last_exam.","Claude score on Humanity’s Last Exam by June 30? is a technology prediction market focused on whether an Anthropic Claude model will appear on the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard with a score at or above the specified threshold by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The event centers on Anthropic’s Claude 5 models and their performance on a benchmark used to compare advanced AI systems. In plain terms, traders are forecasting the expected outcome of whether Claude will reach the required score before the deadline, as verified by the Scale-hosted leaderboard. The market matters because benchmark results can influence market sentiment around AI capability, competitive positioning among big tech and AI developers, and broader expectations for model progress. The current market probability is shown at 100%, though prediction market odds can still reflect how traders interpret the resolution criteria and timing. As a tech forecast with a fixed end date, the event prediction is ultimately determined by the official leaderboard listing on or before the June 30 cutoff.",28533.552129000003,{"id":307,"title":308,"slug":309,"category":8,"subcategory":34,"tags":310,"probability":144,"createdAt":311,"updatedAt":312,"resolutionDate":313,"description":314,"summary":315,"volume1wk":316,"featured":55},"36307","GPT-6 released by…?","gpt-6-released-by",[34,215,12,9,11,33],"2026-05-30T10:43:20.313Z","2026-05-30T10:32:19.279Z","2025-12-31T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if OpenAI's GPT-6 model is made available to the general public by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nFor this market to resolve to \"Yes,\" GPT-6 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.\n\nGPT-6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-6 (e.g. ChatGPT-6o would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to GPT-5, similar to the progression from GPT-3 to GPT-4. Products labeled as GPT-5.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.","GPT-6 released by…? is a prediction market on whether OpenAI will make a product explicitly called GPT-6 publicly available by December 31, 2025. The market resolves to “Yes” only if OpenAI launches GPT-6 for general public access, including through an open beta or open rolling waitlist; a closed beta or private access would not qualify. The forecast centers on a clearly defined AI product release, with official OpenAI announcements serving as the primary resolution source and credible reporting used for verification. As a technology and OpenAI market, it reflects trader expectations about the pace of frontier model development and the timing of the next major successor to GPT-5. Market sentiment can shift quickly as OpenAI updates, product rumors, or launch announcements emerge. At present, the market probability is shown at 0%, though that should be treated as a live prediction-market reading rather than a guarantee of the final outcome. The event began on August 7, 2025 and is scheduled to close at the end of 2025, making the remaining timeframe central to any event prediction or odds assessment.",14807.875348,{"id":318,"title":319,"slug":320,"category":8,"subcategory":130,"tags":321,"probability":322,"createdAt":323,"updatedAt":324,"resolutionDate":20,"description":325,"summary":326,"volume1wk":327,"featured":55},"528064","Which company has the best Math AI model end of June?","which-company-has-the-best-math-ai-model-end-of-june",[130,266,9,11],3.3,"2026-05-30T10:43:13.201Z","2026-05-30T10:32:02.053Z","This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https:\u002F\u002Flmarena.ai\u002F) when the table under the \"Leaderboard\" tab for \"Math\" is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.\n\nResults from the \"Rank\" column under the \"Text Arena | Math\" Leaderboard tab at https:\u002F\u002Farena.ai\u002Fleaderboard\u002Ftext\u002Fmath-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market.\n\nModels will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https:\u002F\u002Flmarena.ai\u002F. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.","Which company has the best Math AI model end of June? is a technology prediction market focused on which AI company will own the top-ranked math model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard. The market resolves using the “Text Arena | Math” leaderboard rank at 12:00 PM ET on June 30, 2026, with the first-place company determined by rank, then Arena score, and finally alphabetical order if needed. In plain terms, traders are forecasting which company’s model will be judged strongest at math tasks by the leaderboard at the check time.\n\nThis event matters because math performance is a key benchmark for AI model quality, especially in the fast-moving tech and rewards-related leaderboard ecosystem. Market sentiment currently gives the outcome a low implied probability of about 3.3%, suggesting traders see a less likely or more competitive result rather than a clear frontrunner. If the leaderboard is unavailable at resolution time, the market remains open until it can be checked again. As a prediction market and tech forecast, it is a direct read on expectations around AI model performance, company leadership, and the state of math-focused benchmark competition.",21760.142482,{"id":329,"title":330,"slug":331,"category":8,"subcategory":11,"tags":332,"probability":333,"createdAt":334,"updatedAt":335,"resolutionDate":80,"description":336,"summary":337,"volume1wk":338,"featured":55},"376512","Which company has the second best AI model end of May?","which-company-has-the-second-best-ai-model-end-of-may",[11,12,9,130,102],99.4,"2026-05-30T10:43:19.770Z","2026-05-30T10:31:59.187Z","This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the second-highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https:\u002F\u002Flmarena.ai\u002F) when the table under the \"Leaderboard\" tab is checked on May 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.\n\nResults from the \"Rank\" column under the \"Text Arena | Overall\" Leaderboard tab at https:\u002F\u002Flmarena.ai\u002Fleaderboard\u002Ftext with style control off will be used to resolve this market.\n\nModels will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking system.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https:\u002F\u002Flmarena.ai\u002F. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.","Which company has the second best AI model end of May? is a technology prediction market based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard, which ranks AI models on lmarena.ai. The market will resolve on May 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET using the company behind the model in second place on the \"Text Arena | Overall\" leaderboard, with style control off. If two models are tied, the market uses Arena score as the next tiebreaker, followed by alphabetical company order if needed.\n\nThis event matters because the Chatbot Arena ranking is one of the clearest public benchmarks for comparing major AI models from Big Tech and other AI companies. Traders are forecasting which company will hold the number-two position at the check time, making this an event prediction tied directly to leaderboard performance rather than broad industry sentiment.\n\nCurrent market probability is 99.4%, indicating very strong market sentiment around the expected outcome, although the result still depends on the official leaderboard reading at resolution time. The market opened on April 14, 2026 and remains active through the end-of-May deadline.",15078.495199,{"id":340,"title":341,"slug":342,"category":8,"subcategory":115,"tags":343,"probability":344,"createdAt":345,"updatedAt":346,"resolutionDate":66,"description":347,"summary":348,"volume1wk":349,"featured":55},"98133","Elon Musk trillionaire before 2027?","elon-musk-trillionaire-before-2027",[115,11,15,113,12],92.95,"2026-05-30T10:43:15.062Z","2026-05-30T10:31:55.810Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Elon Musk's net worth, as listed on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index, reaches or exceeds $1 trillion at any point by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the Bloomberg Billionaires Index (https:\u002F\u002Fwww.bloomberg.com\u002Fbillionaires\u002F), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.\n","Elon Musk trillionaire before 2027? is a technology prediction market asking whether Elon Musk’s net worth will reach or exceed $1 trillion on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The event focuses on a simple expected outcome: whether Bloomberg, or credible consensus reporting if needed, shows Musk crossing the trillion-dollar threshold before the deadline. Because the market resolves on net worth rather than company performance, traders are forecasting Musk’s overall wealth trajectory across Tesla, SpaceX, xAI, and other holdings. This makes the event relevant to tech, business, and Big Tech watchers tracking Elon Musk’s financial standing and market influence. Current market probability is about 92.95%, suggesting strong trader sentiment that the threshold could be reached before the end date. The prediction market remains active through the 2026 cutoff, making timing central to the event prediction and any changes in odds as new reporting emerges.",19307.383452,{"id":351,"title":352,"slug":353,"category":8,"subcategory":156,"tags":354,"probability":300,"createdAt":355,"updatedAt":356,"resolutionDate":20,"description":357,"summary":358,"volume1wk":359,"featured":55},"191768","Anthropic Claude score on FrontierMath Benchmark by June 30?","anthropic-claude-score-on-frontiermath-benchmark-by-june-30",[156,11,12,143,9,141,266],"2026-05-30T10:43:03.207Z","2026-05-30T10:31:53.335Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if any Anthropic Claude model achieves the listed score or greater on the FrontierMath Exam by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThis market will resolve according to the Epoch AI’s Frontier Math benchmarking leaderboard (https:\u002F\u002Fepoch.ai\u002Ffrontiermath) for Tier 1-3. Studies which are not included in the leaderboard (e.g. https:\u002F\u002Fx.com\u002FEpochAIResearch\u002Fstatus\u002F1945905796904005720) will not be considered.\n\nThe primary resolution source will be information from EpochAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.","Anthropic Claude score on FrontierMath Benchmark by June 30? is a technology prediction market asking whether any Anthropic Claude model will reach the listed score or higher on Epoch AI’s FrontierMath benchmarking leaderboard by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The forecast is tied specifically to Tier 1-3 results on the official Frontier Math leaderboard, with the market resolving “Yes” only if the benchmark score appears there; other studies or unofficial reports will not count. This makes the event a focused test of Claude’s math and reasoning performance, and a useful signal for market sentiment around AI model progress from Anthropic in the broader Big Tech and AI categories. Traders are effectively pricing the expected outcome based on the probability of Claude meeting the threshold before the deadline. Current market probability is shown at 100%, indicating very strong confidence, though that remains a market estimate rather than a guarantee. The event is active and runs through the June 30, 2026 expiration date.",49544.100994,{"id":361,"title":362,"slug":363,"category":8,"subcategory":11,"tags":364,"probability":300,"createdAt":365,"updatedAt":366,"resolutionDate":66,"description":367,"summary":368,"volume1wk":369,"featured":55},"138745","Will any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by December 31?","chatbot-arena-how-high-will-ai-score-by-december-31",[11,12,203,9],"2026-05-30T10:43:08.919Z","2026-05-30T10:31:51.913Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if any model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https:\u002F\u002Flmarena.ai\u002F) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nResults from the 'Score' section on the 'Text Arena' Leaderboard tab (https:\u002F\u002Flmarena.ai\u002Fleaderboard\u002Ftext), with the style control unchecked, will be used to resolve this market.\n\nThe resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https:\u002F\u002Flmarena.ai\u002F). If this source is temporarily unavailable, the market remains open until it is accessible again; if permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to \"No\".","Will any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by December 31? is a technology prediction market centered on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard, where traders are forecasting whether at least one model will hit the specified Arena Score by the end of 2026. The market resolves using the \"Score\" section of the Text Arena leaderboard on lmarena.ai, with the style control unchecked, making the outcome tied to a specific public benchmark for AI model performance. This matters because Chatbot Arena is widely watched as a comparative measure of model quality, and a new score threshold can signal rapid progress in large language model development. The market is active from January 2, 2026 through December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, giving participants a clear deadline for the event prediction. Current market probability is listed at 100%, indicating strong market sentiment that the threshold will be reached, though that expectation is not guaranteed. As a tech and AI forecast, the event reflects ongoing interest in Big Tech, Google, and the broader race to improve chatbot and LLM capabilities.",30091.207294000003,{"id":371,"title":372,"slug":373,"category":8,"subcategory":11,"tags":374,"probability":376,"createdAt":377,"updatedAt":378,"resolutionDate":379,"description":380,"summary":381,"volume1wk":382,"featured":55},"482789","AI data center in space by...?","ai-data-center-in-space-by",[11,375,116,9,12,115],"Weather",17.5,"2026-05-30T10:43:26.300Z","2026-05-30T10:31:44.579Z","2027-12-31T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if any orbital data center is successfully launched by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\n“Orbital data center” refers to any spacecraft, satellite, or equivalent technology carrying computing infrastructure that is launched into Earth’s orbit for the purpose of providing data-center, cloud-computing, or artificial intelligence computing services and which includes at least 100 data-center-grade AI accelerators, GPUs, TPUs, or substantially equivalent compute processors, (e.g. NVIDIA H100 GPUs, Google TPUs, or equivalent or successor chips).\n\n“Successfully launched” refers to any launch which successfully places a qualifying orbital data center into Earth’s orbit.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.","AI data center in space by...? is a technology prediction market asking whether any qualifying orbital data center will be successfully launched by the specified deadline of 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2027. The forecast centers on a spacecraft, satellite, or similar system placed into Earth’s orbit that carries data-center or cloud-computing infrastructure for AI workloads, with at least 100 data-center-grade accelerators such as GPUs, TPUs, or equivalent processors. In plain terms, traders are evaluating the likelihood that a space-based computing facility becomes real, rather than remaining a concept. This event matters because it sits at the intersection of AI, Big Tech, SpaceX-style launch capability, and the broader push for distributed compute infrastructure. Current market probability is about 17.5%, suggesting market sentiment still assigns a low-to-moderate chance of success by the deadline. The market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting on whether a qualifying orbital data center is launched into orbit within the timeframe.",10119.192716999998,{"id":384,"title":385,"slug":386,"category":8,"subcategory":11,"tags":387,"probability":144,"createdAt":388,"updatedAt":389,"resolutionDate":20,"description":390,"summary":391,"volume1wk":392,"featured":55},"36309","Grok 5 released by...?","grok-5-released-by",[11,115,9,48],"2026-05-30T10:43:24.786Z","2026-05-30T10:31:39.904Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if xAI's Grok 5 model is made available to the general public by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nFor this market to resolve to \"Yes,\" Grok 5 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public.\n\nGrok 5 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 5 (e.g. Grok 5.0 would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to Grok 4 similar to the progression from Grok 2 to Grok 3. Products labeled as Grok 4.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.","Grok 5 released by...? is a technology prediction market asking whether xAI will make Grok 5 available to the general public by December 31, 2025 at 11:59 PM ET. The market resolves to Yes only if Grok 5 is publicly launched, such as through an open beta or a public waitlist, and not merely through a private or closed beta. The outcome depends on official announcements from xAI, with credible reporting used as additional verification.\n\nThis event matters because it tracks the next step in Elon Musk’s AI product line and reflects broader market sentiment about xAI’s product release cadence. Traders are forecasting whether the company will move Grok 5 from development into a public release before the deadline. As of the latest data, the market probability is 0%, indicating no active consensus that the release will happen on time, though that can change as new information emerges.\n\nThe event prediction remains open until the market’s end date, making it a useful benchmark for AI and tech watchers following Grok, xAI, and related technology forecasts.",11098.607735,{"id":394,"title":395,"slug":396,"category":8,"subcategory":11,"tags":397,"probability":398,"createdAt":399,"updatedAt":400,"resolutionDate":80,"description":401,"summary":402,"volume1wk":403,"featured":55},"376503","Which company has the third best AI model end of May?","which-company-has-the-third-best-ai-model-end-of-may",[11,12,9,130],97.45,"2026-05-30T10:43:01.898Z","2026-05-30T10:31:30.911Z","This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the third-highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https:\u002F\u002Flmarena.ai\u002F) when the table under the \"Leaderboard\" tab is checked on May 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.\n\nResults from the \"Rank\" column under the \"Text Arena | Overall\" Leaderboard tab at https:\u002F\u002Flmarena.ai\u002Fleaderboard\u002Ftext with style control off will be used to resolve this market.\n\nModels will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking system.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https:\u002F\u002Flmarena.ai\u002F. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.","Which company has the third best AI model end of May? is a technology prediction market centered on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard and the race among major AI developers. The market will resolve on May 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET, using the “Rank” column from the Text Arena | Overall leaderboard on lmarena.ai with style control off. In plain terms, traders are forecasting which company will own the model sitting in third place by arena rank at the check time, based on leaderboard position, then Arena score, and finally company-name tiebreakers if needed. The forecast matters because Chatbot Arena is one of the most closely watched public benchmarks for large language models, and leaderboard shifts can reflect changing market sentiment around model quality, reliability, and competitive momentum in Big Tech and AI. Current market probability is 97.45%, suggesting the market has a strong consensus on the expected outcome, though the result will ultimately depend on the leaderboard at resolution time. If the leaderboard is unavailable, the market stays open until the source returns and is checked again.",54539.83879999998,{"id":405,"title":406,"slug":407,"category":8,"subcategory":11,"tags":408,"probability":409,"createdAt":410,"updatedAt":411,"resolutionDate":20,"description":412,"summary":413,"volume1wk":414,"featured":55},"57704","Which company has top AI model end of June? (Style Control On)","which-company-has-top-ai-model-end-of-june-style-control-on",[11,34,9,48,215,12,102],16,"2026-05-30T10:43:12.133Z","2026-05-30T10:31:02.064Z","This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https:\u002F\u002Flmarena.ai\u002F) when the table under the \"Leaderboard\" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.\n\nResults from the \"Rank\" column under the \"Text Arena | Overall\" Leaderboard tab at https:\u002F\u002Flmarena.ai\u002Fleaderboard\u002Ftext with style control on will be used to resolve this market.\n\nModels will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https:\u002F\u002Flmarena.ai\u002F. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.","“Which company has top AI model end of June? (Style Control On)” is a technology prediction market about which company will own the model ranked first on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard at the June 30, 2026 check time. The market uses the \"Text Arena | Overall\" leaderboard on lmarena.ai, with style control on, and resolves to the company whose model holds the highest rank at 12:00 PM ET. If models are tied on rank, the market applies arena score and then company name as tiebreakers.\n\nThis event matters because Chatbot Arena is a widely watched benchmark for large language model performance, making the forecast a useful snapshot of market sentiment around leading AI firms such as OpenAI, Google, xAI, and related Big Tech players. Traders are effectively pricing the expected outcome for which company will have the strongest public-facing AI model at the end of June.\n\nCurrent market probability for the leading outcome is 16%, reflecting an unsettled prediction market with shifting odds as leaderboard rankings change. The market opens on October 10, 2025 and remains active through the June 30, 2026 resolution date, giving participants a long horizon to track model releases, benchmark updates, and leaderboard movement.",23072.663835999996,{"id":416,"title":417,"slug":418,"category":8,"subcategory":9,"tags":419,"probability":144,"createdAt":420,"updatedAt":421,"resolutionDate":422,"description":423,"summary":424,"volume1wk":425,"featured":55},"488268","When will GPT-5.6 be released?","when-will-gpt-5pt6-be-released",[9,11,34,74],"2026-05-30T10:43:10.817Z","2026-05-30T10:30:57.633Z","2026-06-28T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which OpenAI's GPT-5.6 model is made available to the general public.\n\nGPT-5.6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.6, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to GPT-5.5, similar to the progression from GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2. (e.g., GPT-5.7, GPT-5.8, etc., would qualify toward this market)\n\nQualifying releases of task-specialized models (e.g., GPT-Codex\u002FTranscribe), cost-efficiency variants (e.g., Nano\u002FMini), or reasoning models of the o-series family will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation GPT-6 or similar will NOT qualify.\n\nA qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. \n\nThe release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.","\"When will GPT-5.6 be released?\" is a technology prediction market focused on the calendar date when OpenAI makes GPT-5.6 available to the general public. The forecast asks traders to judge when a qualifying release will occur, based on official OpenAI information and credible reporting. To resolve, the model must be publicly accessible, including through an open beta or rolling waitlist signup; private access alone does not count. The market also allows closely related successor versions or qualifying task-specific and efficiency variants, while a new flagship GPT-6 release would not satisfy the event criteria.\n\nThis AI market matters because OpenAI release timing often shapes market sentiment around product roadmaps, model naming, and the pace of frontier AI deployment. The current market probability is 0, indicating no assigned chance is available in the data at this time, so the expected outcome is driven by trader forecasts rather than a visible consensus. The event opened on 2026-05-16 and is scheduled through 2026-06-28, giving participants a defined window to express odds on when the release will happen. For search and event indexing, this is an AI and tech forecast centered on OpenAI, GPT, and the release timing of GPT-5.6.",25339.785067999997,{"id":427,"title":428,"slug":429,"category":8,"subcategory":16,"tags":430,"probability":440,"createdAt":441,"updatedAt":442,"resolutionDate":443,"description":428,"summary":444,"volume1wk":445,"featured":55},"522282","What will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit in June 2026?","what-price-will-nvda-hit-in-june-2026",[16,431,432,433,434,435,436,437,438,439],"Monthly","Hit Price","Hide From New","Finance Updown","Pyth Finance","Stocks","Equities","NVDA","Rewards Automation 100 4.5 50 (1)",8.5,"2026-05-30T10:43:21.452Z","2026-05-30T10:30:55.493Z","2026-07-01T03:59:59.999Z","What will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit in June 2026? is a tech-focused prediction market centered on the future price level of NVIDIA shares during the June 2026 window. Traders are forecasting the expected outcome for NVDA as a stock and equities event, with the market asking which price target the company will reach before the event closes. The forecast runs from May 25, 2026 through July 1, 2026, giving participants a defined timeframe to assess market sentiment around NVIDIA and broader technology sector performance. Current market probability is about 8.5%, suggesting traders see this outcome as relatively unlikely, though still actively priced in the prediction market. As a monthly hit-price contract in the finance subcategory, the event reflects how participants interpret NVIDIA’s momentum, volatility, and price trajectory over time. This type of event prediction is often used to gauge odds and sentiment around one of the most closely watched names in the semiconductor and AI-driven tech space.",13451.855446,{"id":447,"title":448,"slug":449,"category":8,"subcategory":34,"tags":450,"probability":452,"createdAt":453,"updatedAt":454,"resolutionDate":66,"description":455,"summary":456,"volume1wk":457,"featured":55},"164335","Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman?","will-elon-musk-win-his-case-against-sam-altman",[34,254,451,227,61,9,115,11],"Musk v. Altman",2.15,"2026-05-30T10:43:11.270Z","2026-05-30T10:30:45.456Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if the U.S. District Court in the Northern District of California sides with Elon Musk in Elon Musk v. Sam Altman et al by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nIf the case reaches a determination without settlement, the court will be considered to side with Musk based on the following criteria (in order of priority):\n\n1. If Elon Musk receives a larger net monetary award than Altman et al (after offsetting any awards against the parties), the court will have sided with Musk. Compensatory damages, punitive damages, restitution, and statutory damages are included in monetary awards. Monetary awards do not include Attorney’s fees or other costs which are excluded from the monetary recovery calculation.\n\n2. If there is no net monetary advantage for either party, the court will have sided with Musk if Musk prevails on claims seeking the largest amount of relief, in dollars, in the original pleadings of the case, as compared to Altman et al. If the relevant relief amounts are equivalent or can’t be determined, the court will have sided with Musk if Musk prevails on a greater number of primary causes of action than Altman et al. Procedural claims, discovery sanctions, and attorney's fee requests will not be considered primary causes of action.\n\n3. If the case terminates without substantive judgment, the court will have sided with Musk if Altman et al voluntarily dismiss all claims against Elon Musk with prejudice. All other scenarios of termination without substantive judgment, including if there are no claims against Musk, will result in the court not siding with either party and will resolve this market to “No”.\n\nIf Elon Musk and Altman et al settle this case with a disclosed net payment to Elon Musk, the court will have sided with Musk. If Elon Musk and Altman et al settle this case with a disclosed net payment to Altman et al, this market will resolve to “No”. If Elon Musk and Altman et al settle this case with mutual releases and no disclosed payment direction, or if settlement terms are sealed and a consensus of credible reporting does not indicate payment direction within 7 days of the settlement announcement, the court will not have sided with either party and this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAdditional notes:\n\nIf the court issues a default judgment in favor of Elon Musk, this market will use the listed criteria above for resolution. If the court issues a default judgment against Elon Musk, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nIf the court issues a full summary judgment in favor of Elon Musk, the court will have sided with Musk.\n\nA partial summary judgment will apply to resolved claims only, and remaining claims will proceed under the above listed resolution criteria.\n\nA summary judgment on liability only will not constitute a court siding with either party until the damages are determined.\n\nMistrials with prejudice will be considered to be case termination and will be evaluated according to criteria 3 above.\n\nMistrials without prejudice, hung juries, or mistrials due to procedural errors will not constitute the court siding with either party. If retrial is ordered and occurs before December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, resolution of this market will be based on the result of that retrial.\n\nAny sua sponte judicial dismissal will be treated according to whether the dismissal is with or without prejudice. If unspecified, it will be treated as without prejudice.\n\nThis market applies only to trial-level case resolutions and does not include any appeals.\n\nOnly claims directly involving Elon Musk will be considered; third-party claims, interpleader actions, and claims between other parties will not be considered.\n\nProcedural victories will not be considered as part of the court’s decision unless accompanied by substantive relief on the merits of the case.\n\nInjunctive relief will only count as the court’s decision if it provides the primary relief sought in the original pleadings.\n\nCase consolidation with other proceedings will not affect this market’s outcome unless the consolidated outcome directly resolves the dispute between Elon Musk and Altman et al.\n\nIf there are multiple defendants, the court must side with Elon Musk relative to the combination of all opposing parties. Joint and several liability awards will be attributed to Elon Musk based on Musk’s individual liability percentage. Cross-claims between co-defendants will not affect the court’s decision relative to Elon Musk.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant court; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.","Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman? is a technology prediction market tracking the trial-level outcome of Musk v. Sam Altman et al in the U.S. District Court for the Northern District of California. The market resolves to “Yes” only if the court ultimately sides with Elon Musk under the event’s detailed criteria, which prioritize a net monetary award, then the largest dollar amount of relief, then the number of primary causes of action won. It also accounts for specific settlement outcomes, dismissals, summary judgment, and other termination scenarios, while excluding appeals. The forecast runs through December 31, 2026, giving traders time to assess court filings, rulings, and any settlement developments. Current market probability for Musk to win is about 2.15%, indicating strongly bearish market sentiment on a Musk victory. With tags spanning OpenAI, xAI, AI, courts, and politics, the event sits at the intersection of tech litigation and AI industry rivalry, making it relevant to event prediction, legal analysis, and broader tech market expectations.",24428.59117799999,{"id":459,"title":460,"slug":461,"category":8,"subcategory":15,"tags":462,"probability":144,"createdAt":463,"updatedAt":464,"resolutionDate":66,"description":465,"summary":466,"volume1wk":467,"featured":55},"85299","AI bubble burst by...?","ai-bubble-burst-by",[15,11,16,12],"2026-05-30T10:43:07.036Z","2026-05-30T10:30:43.585Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the AI industry experiences an industry downturn by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purposes of this market, the AI industry will be considered to have experienced an industry downturn once at least three of the following events have occurred within 90 days of this market's specified timeframe:\n- NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) closing stock price is down 50% from its all-time high.\n- iShares PHLX Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) closing stock price is down 40% from its all-time high.\n- OpenAI, Inc. or Anthropic PBC declares bankruptcy.\n- OpenAI, Inc. is acquired.\n- H100 rental price falls to $1.00 or lower for five consecutive days, as shown on the SiliconData Silicon Index at:\nhttps:\u002F\u002Fwww.silicondata.com\u002Fproducts\u002Fsilicon-index.\n- Major AI Hardware Supplier Collapse: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSM), ASML Holding N.V. (ASML), Broadcom Inc. (AVGO), Arista Networks, Inc. (ANET), or Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI), closing stock price is down 50% from its all-time high.\n\nThis market may resolve immediately once three conditions have been met within 90 days of the specified timeframe.\n\nThis market will not resolve to \"Yes\" until three conditions have been met, regardless of reporting of an industry downturn or similar claims.\n\nThe primary resolution source will be official information from the respective companies and listing exchanges; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.","“AI bubble burst by...?” is a technology prediction market that asks whether the AI industry will experience a clear downturn by the market’s deadline on December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The forecast is not based on a vague sentiment call: it resolves to Yes only if at least three specified market stress signals occur within 90 days of the timeframe. Those signals include NVIDIA (NVDA) falling 50% from its all-time high, SOXX dropping 40%, OpenAI or Anthropic declaring bankruptcy, OpenAI being acquired, H100 rental prices falling to $1.00 or lower for five straight days, or major AI infrastructure suppliers such as TSM, ASML, AVGO, ANET, or SMCI declining 50% from peak levels.\n\nThis event matters because it ties the broader AI bubble narrative to measurable outcomes across Big Tech, semiconductors, and AI hardware suppliers. As a prediction market, it reflects trader expectations about whether the sector can sustain current growth and valuation trends. The current market probability is 0%, indicating no priced-in expectation of a qualifying AI industry downturn at this time, though odds can change quickly as market sentiment shifts.",34428.787527,{"id":469,"title":470,"slug":471,"category":8,"subcategory":16,"tags":472,"probability":473,"createdAt":474,"updatedAt":475,"resolutionDate":39,"description":476,"summary":477,"volume1wk":478,"featured":55},"502667","Anthropic vs OpenAI - higher valuation on December 31?","anthropic-vs-openai-higher-valuation-on-december-31",[16,30,31,9,12,11,34,143,141],80.5,"2026-05-30T10:43:20.498Z","2026-05-30T10:30:11.136Z","This market will resolve to the listed company with the larger private market valuation, as measured by the final NPM Price reported by Nasdaq Private Market, LLC (NPM), for December 31, 2026.\n\nNPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day.\n\nIf NPM has not published relevant data for the specified date by 1:00 PM ET on January 1, 2027, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on January 4, 2027. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the latest available data.\n\nIf NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the specified date, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing.\n\nIf a company completes an IPO or direct listing before the specified date, this market will resolve according to the company's public market capitalization at the market close of the specified date or the most recent trading day.\n\nPublic market capitalization will be determined using the final official regular-hours trading price published for the company's primary listed common equity on its primary exchange for the specified date or the most recent trading day, multiplied by the company's total outstanding common shares at the relevant time.\n\nIf a listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.\n\nIf a listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, only the NPM valuation and applicable public market capitalization achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is NPM data published here (https:\u002F\u002Ffe.secondmarket.com\u002Fcompanies\u002Fcompany-3e197763-4ff8-4d8c-bd1f-cc2792937757\u002Fdata?return_url=https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket.com\u002Ffinance\u002Fprivates) and here (https:\u002F\u002Ffe.secondmarket.com\u002Fcompanies\u002Fcompany-30839e0b-2730-4495-839f-1bf638fa9cca\u002Fdata?return_url=https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket.com\u002Ffinance\u002Fprivates). The resolution source for any period following an IPO, direct listing, or relevant corporate action, will be official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.\n\nIf Anthropic's valuation is equal to OpenAI's valuation at resolution, this market will resolve to 50-50.\n\nRevisions to previously published NPM data made after their initial release will not be considered, unless made to correct clearly erroneous data.","Anthropic vs OpenAI - higher valuation on December 31? is a technology prediction market focused on which AI company will have the larger private market valuation at the end of 2026. The forecast is based on the final Nasdaq Private Market (NPM) Price for December 31, 2026, with resolution rules that also account for a possible IPO, direct listing, or other corporate changes before the deadline. If NPM data is delayed, the market may remain open into early January 2027 before settling on the latest available information. As of the latest reading, traders are assigning Anthropic about an 80.5% probability of finishing with the higher valuation, suggesting strong market sentiment in its favor, though the outcome is not guaranteed. The event is relevant to AI, LLMs, Big Tech, and private-company finance because it compares two of the most closely watched names in frontier AI: Anthropic, maker of Claude, and OpenAI. Prediction-market participants are effectively pricing the expected outcome of their relative valuations rather than product performance or revenue alone.",14569.274951000001,1780676631631]