[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":2525},["ShallowReactive",2],{"category-events-politics":3,"category-content-politics":1192},[4,26,44,55,69,83,98,112,127,145,156,170,181,192,206,220,235,251,266,278,292,305,315,328,340,351,361,377,387,402,414,425,436,447,458,474,486,497,508,522,533,544,557,567,580,593,608,625,636,647,657,669,680,691,702,717,727,740,751,761,773,786,798,814,824,836,849,859,871,885,895,906,916,931,943,955,966,977,988,998,1009,1021,1033,1044,1057,1067,1077,1089,1100,1111,1123,1134,1144,1155,1166,1178],{"id":5,"title":6,"slug":7,"category":8,"subcategory":9,"tags":10,"probability":18,"createdAt":19,"updatedAt":20,"resolutionDate":21,"description":22,"summary":23,"volume1wk":24,"featured":25},"31875","Republican Presidential Nominee 2028","republican-presidential-nominee-2028","POLITICS","Politics",[9,11,12,13,14,15,16,17],"US Election","Elections","World Elections","Global Elections","Earn 4%","Primaries","United States",2.75,"2026-05-30T10:42:43.975Z","2026-05-30T10:39:47.083Z","2028-11-07T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources.\n\nAny replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.","Republican Presidential Nominee 2028 is a political prediction market tracking who will win and accept the Republican Party’s nomination for U.S. president in 2028. The market resolves to Yes if the named individual becomes the official Republican nominee, based on a consensus of official Republican Party sources; if not, it resolves to No. If the party replaces its nominee before Election Day, that change does not alter the market’s resolution, which makes the event prediction especially focused on the formal nomination outcome rather than later campaign adjustments. This forecast matters because the Republican nominee will shape the early direction of the 2028 U.S. election cycle, including party positioning, primary dynamics, and broader market sentiment around the race. The prediction market is active from July 11, 2025 through November 7, 2028, giving traders a long window to assess odds as the nomination process develops. Current market probability stands at 2.75%, suggesting the market expects this outcome to remain relatively unlikely at present, though probabilities can shift with new political developments, endorsements, debates, and primary results.",9249335.794150999,true,{"id":27,"title":28,"slug":29,"category":8,"subcategory":9,"tags":30,"probability":37,"createdAt":38,"updatedAt":39,"resolutionDate":40,"description":41,"summary":42,"volume1wk":43,"featured":25},"371649","US x Iran diplomatic meeting by...?","us-x-iran-diplomatic-meeting-by-329",[9,31,32,33,34,35,36],"Iran Ceasefire","Iran","Vance","Trump","U.S. x Iran","Geopolitics",0,"2026-05-30T10:42:45.013Z","2026-05-30T10:39:46.810Z","2026-04-30T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nA diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. \n\nBrief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.  \n\nThe meeting must be in-person and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.\n\nThe resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.","US x Iran diplomatic meeting by...? is a political prediction market asking whether there will be an in-person diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran by the listed deadline, 11:59 PM ET on April 30, 2026. The forecast resolves to Yes only if the meeting is deliberate, authorized, and publicly acknowledged by either government or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting; remote calls, informal contact, and chance encounters do not count. This makes the event a focused test of US-Iran diplomatic engagement rather than broader geopolitical signaling. Market sentiment in this prediction market has been heavily one-sided, with the current probability at 0%, suggesting traders see little expectation of a qualifying meeting before the end date. Because the contract includes indirect meetings through approved mediators as valid, the event prediction also reflects how negotiations may unfold beyond direct face-to-face talks. As a politics and geopolitics market, it is closely watched for signals about Iran ceasefire dynamics, U.S. foreign policy, and broader regional diplomacy.",2654417.6848280015,{"id":45,"title":46,"slug":47,"category":8,"subcategory":9,"tags":48,"probability":37,"createdAt":49,"updatedAt":50,"resolutionDate":51,"description":52,"summary":53,"volume1wk":54,"featured":25},"438327","Iran closes its airspace by...?","iran-closes-its-airspace-by",[9,36,35,32],"2026-05-30T10:42:44.156Z","2026-05-30T10:38:40.231Z","2026-05-31T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran initiates a major closure of its airspace, that is not solely due to weather conditions, by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nA “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or suspension of commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from Iranian airspace or a major Iranian Airspace region. A qualifying closure must apply generally to flights across Iran or a major Iranian airspace region. Limited cancellations, delays, or other partial closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain flights pre-approved by the Iranian Civil Aviation Authority may be permitted). \n\nAny non-weather complete suspension of commercial arrivals and departures affecting at least two of the following airports will qualify: Imam Khomeini International Airport (IKA), Mehrabad Airport (THR), Mashhad International Airport (MHD), Shiraz International Airport (SYZ), or Isfahan International Airport (IFN).\n\nQualifying previous examples include the January 2026 total closure of Iranian airspace except to international flights with express governmental permission (https:\u002F\u002Fwww.reuters.com\u002Fworld\u002Fmiddle-east\u002Firan-shuts-airspace-most-flights-flightradar24-says-2026-01-14\u002F) and the April 2024 closure of Iran’s western airspace (https:\u002F\u002Fwww.reuters.com\u002Fworld\u002Fmiddle-east\u002Firanian-airports-cancel-flights-until-monday-morning-2024-04-14\u002F). Non-qualifying examples include the January 27, 2026 partial closure of Iranian airspace around the Strait of Hormuz (https:\u002F\u002Fwww.aa.com.tr\u002Fen\u002Fmiddle-east\u002Firan-issues-airspace-notice-for-military-drills-near-strait-of-hormuz\u002F3812508) and the January 25 - April 25, 2026 VFR (Visual Flight Rules) flights suspension which did not broadly close commercial aviation in a qualifying region (https:\u002F\u002Fwww.intellinews.com\u002Firan-suspends-general-aviation-and-vfr-flights-in-new-airspace-directive-421997\u002F).\n\nWarnings, No-Fly-Zones, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Iran will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.\n\nAirspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from Iranian aviation authorities and a consensus of credible reporting.","Iran closes its airspace by...? is a political prediction market asking whether Iran will initiate a major closure of its airspace by the listed deadline of May 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. The forecast is focused on a broad suspension or cancellation of commercial flights transiting, arriving in, or departing from Iranian airspace, or a major Iranian airspace region, and excludes disruptions caused solely by weather. To qualify, the event must involve a general closure affecting commercial aviation, with examples including major restrictions at airports such as Imam Khomeini International Airport, Mehrabad, Mashhad, Shiraz, or Isfahan. This event matters because Iranian airspace decisions can affect regional aviation, U.S. x Iran geopolitics, and broader Middle East market sentiment. Traders in the prediction market are weighing the odds based on official aviation notices and credible reporting, with current market probability near 0%, indicating a low expected outcome at present. The market’s resolution will depend on whether Iran’s aviation authorities or reliable news sources confirm a qualifying closure before the deadline.",6620506.11378,{"id":56,"title":57,"slug":58,"category":8,"subcategory":59,"tags":60,"probability":62,"createdAt":63,"updatedAt":64,"resolutionDate":65,"description":66,"summary":67,"volume1wk":68,"featured":25},"219798","Romanian PM Bolojan out by...?","romanian-pm-bolojan-out-by","Romania",[59,61,9],"World",98.25,"2026-05-30T10:43:08.527Z","2026-05-30T10:37:40.410Z","2026-12-31T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if Ilie Bolojan ceases to be Prime Minister of Romania for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn announcement of Ilie Bolojan's resignation\u002Fremoval before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to \"Yes\", regardless of when the announced resignation\u002Fremoval goes into effect.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be official information from Ilie Bolojan and the government of Romania; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.","Romanian PM Bolojan out by...? is a political prediction market on whether Ilie Bolojan will cease to be Prime Minister of Romania at any point before the market’s end date of December 31, 2026. The forecast resolves to “Yes” if Bolojan resigns or is removed from office, even if the change takes effect after an announcement is made before the deadline. If he remains in office throughout the full period, the market resolves to “No.”\n\nThis event matters because it tracks stability in Romania’s government and the potential for leadership change in a key EU and NATO member state. The resolution will rely primarily on official information from Ilie Bolojan and the Romanian government, with credible reporting also considered if needed. Current market probability is 98.25%, indicating traders overwhelmingly expect the outcome to be “Yes.”\n\nAs a political forecast, this event reflects strong market sentiment around a possible resignation or dismissal before year-end, and it is closely followed by traders watching Romania’s domestic politics and leadership risk.",30690.855601000025,{"id":70,"title":71,"slug":72,"category":8,"subcategory":9,"tags":73,"probability":77,"createdAt":78,"updatedAt":79,"resolutionDate":51,"description":80,"summary":81,"volume1wk":82,"featured":25},"424807","Jimmy Kimmel fired\u002Fresigns by May 31?","jimmy-kimmel-firedresigns-by-may-31",[9,34,74,75,76],"Celebrities","Culture","TV",0.25,"2026-05-30T10:43:07.723Z","2026-05-30T10:34:00.481Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Jimmy Kimmel ceases to be the host of Jimmy Kimmel Live! for any length of time between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nAn announcement of Kimmel's resignation\u002Ffiring before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to \"Yes\", regardless of when the announced resignation\u002Ffiring goes into effect.\n\nSuspensions, administrative leave, or other temporary measures will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from ABC or Disney, however a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.","Jimmy Kimmel fired\u002Fresigns by May 31? is a political prediction market asking whether Jimmy Kimmel will cease hosting Jimmy Kimmel Live! for any length of time between market creation and May 31, 2026. The event focuses on a clear forecasted outcome: a “Yes” resolution if ABC’s Jimmy Kimmel Live! host resigns, is fired, or otherwise stops hosting before the deadline; temporary suspensions or administrative leave do not count. If an official resignation or firing is announced before the end date, the market resolves to Yes immediately, even if the change takes effect later.\n\nThe market is relevant to politics, culture, celebrities, and TV because it tracks both entertainment news and potential media fallout involving ABC and Disney. As of the latest pricing, traders assign about a 25% probability to a Yes outcome, indicating the current market sentiment leans toward Kimmel remaining in place through the deadline, though the odds can move with new reporting. This event prediction is time-sensitive, with the forecast window ending at 11:59 PM ET on May 31, 2026.",33375.912205,{"id":84,"title":85,"slug":86,"category":8,"subcategory":12,"tags":87,"probability":77,"createdAt":92,"updatedAt":93,"resolutionDate":94,"description":95,"summary":96,"volume1wk":97,"featured":25},"57096","California Governor Election Winner","california-governor-election-2026",[12,11,9,88,89,90,91],"Governor midterms","California Midterm","rewards 100, 4.5, 100","California Governor","2026-05-30T10:42:44.509Z","2026-05-30T10:32:16.807Z","2026-11-03T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to according to the candidate who wins the 2026 California gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026.\n\nIf the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.","California Governor Election Winner is a political prediction market forecasting who will win the 2026 California gubernatorial election, currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Traders in this election market are weighing the expected outcome of the governor race in one of the country’s most important states, with implications for California politics and broader U.S. election sentiment. The market will resolve to the candidate who wins the election, using Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC race calls, or official certification if those outlets do not all call the race for the same candidate. If the result is still unconfirmed by July 31, 2027, it will resolve to “Other.” Current market probability is about 25%, indicating that traders are assigning a modest chance to the leading outcome reflected in the market at this time. The market opened on October 9, 2025 and remains active through the election date, making it a closely watched event prediction for California Governor, Elections, and U.S. political forecast tracking.",4083953.7799110003,{"id":99,"title":100,"slug":101,"category":8,"subcategory":9,"tags":102,"probability":105,"createdAt":106,"updatedAt":107,"resolutionDate":108,"description":109,"summary":110,"volume1wk":111,"featured":25},"143567","Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by...?","miguel-daz-canel-out-as-leader-of-cuba-by-june-30",[9,36,103,34,104],"Venezuela","Cuba",64,"2026-05-30T10:43:02.131Z","2026-05-30T10:32:02.393Z","2026-06-30T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Cuba’s current leader, Miguel Díaz-Canel, is removed from power for any length of time by the listed date, ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\". \n\nFor the purposes of this market, Díaz-Canel will be considered to be removed from power if he resigns, is detained, or otherwise ceases to hold (or is publicly reported to be unable to perform the duties of) the office of First Secretary of the Communist Party of Cuba, which is widely regarded as Cuba’s top political post, within this market’s timeframe. \n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.","Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by...? is a political prediction market asking whether Cuba’s current leader will be removed from power for any length of time by June 30, 2026 ET. The market resolves to Yes if Díaz-Canel resigns, is detained, or otherwise ceases to hold — or is publicly reported unable to perform the duties of — the office of First Secretary of the Communist Party of Cuba, widely viewed as Cuba’s top political post. Otherwise, it resolves to No. This makes the event relevant to geopolitics and broader Cuba politics, as any change in leadership would be a significant development for the island’s domestic order and foreign relations.\n\nCurrent market probability is about 64%, suggesting traders see a moderate chance of this outcome within the forecast window. That level of odds reflects market sentiment rather than certainty, and the final resolution will depend on credible reporting before the end date. As a political forecast, this event prediction is closely watched by participants tracking Cuba, regional politics, and leadership stability.",53985.492464999996,{"id":113,"title":114,"slug":115,"category":8,"subcategory":116,"tags":117,"probability":37,"createdAt":121,"updatedAt":122,"resolutionDate":123,"description":124,"summary":125,"volume1wk":126,"featured":25},"17725","Starmer out by...?","starmer-out-in-2025","Starmer",[116,118,119,120,9,61],"UK","keir","Grooming Gangs","2026-05-30T10:42:45.616Z","2026-05-30T10:32:02.271Z","2025-12-31T12:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if Keir Starmer ceases to be the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom for any period of time between February 2 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn announcement of Keir Starmer's resignation\u002Fremoval before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to \"Yes\", regardless of when the announced resignation\u002Fremoval goes into effect.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the government of the UK, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.","Starmer out by...? is a political prediction market on whether Keir Starmer will cease to be Prime Minister of the United Kingdom at any point between February 2 and December 31, 2025. The forecast resolves to “Yes” if Starmer leaves office for any period during that window, and it can also resolve early if there is an official resignation or removal announcement before the end date. Resolution will rely on the UK government, with credible reporting also accepted. As a UK politics event, this market draws attention to leadership stability, cabinet confidence, and the potential for a change in government during a major electoral cycle. The current market probability is 0%, which suggests traders are assigning very low odds to a departure in the resolution period, though prediction market sentiment can change quickly as political conditions evolve. The event starts on February 3, 2025 and runs through December 31, 2025, making it a year-long political forecast for traders following Starmer, UK politics, and event prediction markets.",1793963.307354999,{"id":128,"title":129,"slug":130,"category":8,"subcategory":9,"tags":131,"probability":137,"createdAt":138,"updatedAt":139,"resolutionDate":140,"description":141,"summary":142,"volume1wk":143,"featured":144},"80071","Alabama Republican Senate Primary Winner","alabama-republican-senate-primary-winner",[9,12,16,132,133,134,135,136],"primary elections","Senate Primary","Alabama Primary","Republican Primary","May 19 Primaries",0.05,"2026-05-30T10:43:18.994Z","2026-05-30T10:40:22.655Z","2026-05-19T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Alabama.\n\nIf no 2026 Alabama Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Alabama Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.","Alabama Republican Senate Primary Winner is a political prediction market focused on who will win the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Alabama. The event asks traders to forecast the outcome of the 2026 Alabama Republican Senate primary, with resolution tied to the first official results announced by the Alabama Republican Party or, if needed, credible consensus reporting. If no 2026 primary takes place, the market resolves to \"Other.\" The market opens on November 13, 2025 and is scheduled around the May 19, 2026 primary deadline. As a political forecast, this event reflects market sentiment on the likely nominee and the expected outcome in one of Alabama’s key election contests. Current market probability is around 5%, suggesting the leading outcome is still viewed as relatively uncertain and subject to change as the race develops. This listing is relevant for election watchers, primary elections coverage, and analysts tracking Senate Primary odds, Alabama Primary dynamics, and broader political prediction market activity.",16144.803398,false,{"id":146,"title":147,"slug":148,"category":8,"subcategory":61,"tags":149,"probability":150,"createdAt":151,"updatedAt":152,"resolutionDate":65,"description":153,"summary":154,"volume1wk":155,"featured":144},"73871","Who will Trump meet with in 2026?","who-will-trump-meet-with-in-2026",[61,34,9,36],100,"2026-05-30T10:42:57.714Z","2026-05-30T10:40:21.810Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the listed individual meets with Donald Trump between January 1, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA meeting is defined as any encounter where both listed individual and Trump are present and interact with each other in person.\n\nThe resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.","“Who will Trump meet with in 2026?” is a political prediction market focused on whether a listed individual will meet with Donald Trump at any point between January 1 and December 31, 2026, by 11:59 PM ET. The market resolves to Yes only if both Trump and the named person are present and interact in person, with the outcome determined by a consensus of credible reporting. As a World and Politics event, it sits at the intersection of geopolitics, diplomacy, and domestic political forecasting, making it relevant to traders tracking high-profile U.S. political contacts.\n\nThe forecast asks a simple question in plain language: will Trump hold an in-person meeting with each candidate on the list during the resolution period? Market sentiment can shift as reporting, public appearances, or travel schedules change, and the prediction market is designed to price those odds over time. Current market probability stands at 100%, though that should be read as the present market expectation rather than a guarantee of the final result. The event is active through the end of 2026, giving traders a long window for event prediction and updated probability discovery.",88121.139551,{"id":157,"title":158,"slug":159,"category":8,"subcategory":9,"tags":160,"probability":163,"createdAt":164,"updatedAt":165,"resolutionDate":166,"description":167,"summary":168,"volume1wk":169,"featured":144},"141230","Maduro Prison Time?","maduro-prison-time-527",[9,36,161,162,34,103],"Courts","Nicolas Maduro",20.9,"2026-05-30T10:43:17.678Z","2026-05-30T10:40:21.449Z","2027-12-31T00:00:00.000Z","Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro was indicted in the Southern District of New York on January 3, 2026 on charges including Narco-Terrorism Conspiracy and Cocaine Importation Conspiracy. Maduro was indicted alongside alleged co-conspirators in an indictment titled \"United States of America V. Nicolás Maduro Moros, Diosdado Cabello Rondón, Ramón Rodríguez Chacín, Cilia Adela Flores de Maduro, Nicolás Ernesto Maduro Guerra\".\n\nThis market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Nicolas Maduro (Nicolas Maduro Moros) relating to this indictment by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.\n\nThis market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Maduro is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to \"No Prison Time.\"\n\nIf no sentencing takes place by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to \"No Prison Time.\"\n\nIf Maduro is sentenced to life imprisonment without a specified numerical term of years, this market will resolve to the highest range bracket.\n\nIf the imposed sentence falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Maduro is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in the first sentencing for this case.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.","Maduro Prison Time? is a political prediction market asking what prison sentence, if any, will be imposed on Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro in connection with a January 3, 2026 indictment in the Southern District of New York. The case centers on charges including Narco-Terrorism Conspiracy and Cocaine Importation Conspiracy, with the market resolving according to the first sentence in the case, regardless of any appeal. If Maduro receives no jail time, or if there is no sentencing by December 31, 2027, the outcome resolves to No Prison Time.\n\nThis forecast matters because it ties a major geopolitics and courts story to a specific legal outcome for a sitting foreign leader. Traders are effectively pricing the expected outcome of U.S. proceedings against Maduro and alleged co-conspirators named in the indictment. Current market probability for any prison time is about 20.9%, suggesting sentiment leans toward no prison sentence, though the result remains uncertain. The market starts on January 4, 2026 and runs through the end of 2027, making it a long-dated event prediction with resolution based on official U.S. court or government sources.",17289.051758999998,{"id":171,"title":172,"slug":173,"category":8,"subcategory":9,"tags":174,"probability":175,"createdAt":176,"updatedAt":177,"resolutionDate":65,"description":178,"summary":179,"volume1wk":180,"featured":144},"92611","Which states will Donald Trump visit in 2026?","which-states-will-donald-trump-visit-in-2026",[9,34],45.5,"2026-05-30T10:43:00.744Z","2026-05-30T10:40:19.817Z","If U.S. President Donald Trump visits the listed state between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Yes\". Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purpose of this market, a \"visit\" is defined as Trump physically entering the terrestrial territory of the listed state. Whether or not Trump enters the state’s airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this information will be official information from the government of the United States of America, official information from Trump, or released by his verified social media accounts (e.g., https:\u002F\u002Ftwitter.com\u002FPOTUS); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.","“Which states will Donald Trump visit in 2026?” is a political prediction market tracking whether U.S. President Donald Trump physically enters the terrestrial territory of one or more listed states during the calendar year 2026. The market resolves to Yes for any state he visits between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and No if he does not. Airspace alone does not count, making the event dependent on verified in-state travel rather than flights or transit. This forecast matters because presidential travel can signal campaign strategy, governing priorities, and regional political attention, which are often closely watched by traders and analysts following U.S. politics. The primary resolution source is official U.S. government information, official statements from Trump, or posts from his verified social media accounts, with credible reporting also considered. As of the latest update, the market probability is 45.5%, suggesting traders see the outcome as close to evenly balanced. The prediction market remains active through the end date of December 31, 2026, and market sentiment may shift as new travel plans, appearances, or official announcements emerge.",60271.610231,{"id":182,"title":183,"slug":184,"category":8,"subcategory":9,"tags":185,"probability":37,"createdAt":187,"updatedAt":188,"resolutionDate":108,"description":189,"summary":190,"volume1wk":191,"featured":144},"84575","Epstein client list released by...?","epstein-client-list-released-in-2025-372",[9,186,34],"Epstein","2026-05-30T10:42:46.539Z","2026-05-30T10:40:18.367Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if files which were not previously public and which pertain to the illegal activities of Jeffrey Epstein are made public by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, and those files contain a list of individuals associated with Epstein in connection with his illegal activities, including but not limited to sex trafficking or related crimes. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”\n\nTo qualify, the files must contain names in a context equivalent to what is commonly referred to as Epstein’s “client list”—that is, a document that explicitly identifies a list or set of individuals as being directly connected to, participating in, facilitating, funding, soliciting, or otherwise being implicated in Jeffrey Epstein’s illegal activities.\n\nA document may qualify even if it does not contain explicit incriminating language on its face, so long as credible reporting or accompanying official context confirms that the released document is an incriminating client list or functionally equivalent roster of individuals tied to Epstein’s illegal activity.\n\nThe following will not qualify:\n\n- Flight logs, passenger manifests, visitor logs, or transportation records which merely show individuals traveling with, meeting with, or visiting Epstein without any explicit or contextual tie to criminal activity.\n\n- Contact books, address lists, social calendars, guest lists, schedules, correspondence logs, or similar documents that include names solely due to social contact, proximity, acquaintance, or logistical interaction with Epstein.\n\n- Any document listing individuals without accompanying language, context, or credible reporting that connects those individuals to Epstein’s illegal activity.\n\nThe primary resolution sources for this market will be the released files themselves and a consensus of credible reporting.","“Epstein client list released by...?” is a political prediction market asking whether previously non-public files related to Jeffrey Epstein’s illegal activities will be made public by December 31, 2025, and whether those files contain a meaningful list of individuals tied to that activity. The event is not about ordinary travel records, social contact lists, or guest logs; it requires a document or official context that credibly identifies people as connected to, facilitating, funding, or otherwise implicated in Epstein’s crimes. That distinction is central to how the market resolves. The forecast matters because any release could shape public understanding of Epstein’s network and drive major media and political attention. As of the latest market data, traders assign essentially 0% probability to a qualifying release, suggesting strong market sentiment that the expected outcome is “No.” The prediction market remains active through the end-of-2025 deadline, with resolution based on the files themselves and credible reporting about their contents.",1228630.1150939986,{"id":193,"title":194,"slug":195,"category":8,"subcategory":196,"tags":197,"probability":199,"createdAt":200,"updatedAt":201,"resolutionDate":202,"description":203,"summary":204,"volume1wk":205,"featured":144},"106193","Republican Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?","republican-senate-seats-after-the-2026-midterm-elections-927","Congress",[196,9,12,11,34,198,17],"Midterms",27.5,"2026-05-30T10:43:02.184Z","2026-05-30T10:40:18.317Z",null,"The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US Senate as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.\n\nThis market will resolve based on the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.\n\nIf a Senate seat is vacant but a corresponding election is not held in November 2026, the seat will be considered held by the party of the seat's most recent incumbent.\n\nA candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all Senate elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.","\"Republican Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?\" is a political prediction market focused on how many seats the Republican Party will hold in the US Senate after the 2026 midterm elections. The market resolves based on all Senate elections scheduled for November 2026, including any special elections, with the final count determined once the races are called by Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC, or by official certification if needed. The forecast reflects control of Congress and can shift as campaigns develop, candidate affiliations become clearer, and runoff outcomes are decided. The midterm elections are scheduled for November 3, 2026, and the market has been active since December 19, 2025. Current market probability is about 27.5%, indicating traders see this outcome as possible but not the baseline expectation. In prediction market terms, the odds incorporate market sentiment, election forecasts, and resolution rules tied to Senate results across the United States. This event is relevant for Congress, US election watchers, and anyone tracking Republican and Democratic Senate control heading into the 2026 midterms.",53972.861686000004,{"id":207,"title":208,"slug":209,"category":8,"subcategory":9,"tags":210,"probability":214,"createdAt":215,"updatedAt":216,"resolutionDate":108,"description":217,"summary":218,"volume1wk":219,"featured":144},"379876","Who will attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?","who-will-attend-the-next-us-x-iran-diplomatic-meeting",[9,33,32,35,36,34,211,31,212,213],"Kushner","rubio","Witkoff",6.55,"2026-05-30T10:43:01.991Z","2026-05-30T10:40:16.864Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the listed individual attends the next diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nA diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.\n\nBrief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not qualify as diplomatic meetings.\n\nThe meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.\n\nAttendance refers to the listed individual being physically present and actively participating in negotiations at the meeting.\n\nIf the next diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran takes place over multiple days, attendance at any part of the meeting will qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.","\"Who will attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?\" is a Politics prediction market tracking which named individual will physically attend the next in-person diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran. The market resolves \"Yes\" only if the listed person is present and actively participating in negotiations at that meeting, with attendance eligible even if the talks extend across multiple days. Remote calls, brief encounters, and unofficial interactions do not count under the event rules. The forecast matters because any confirmed US-Iran diplomatic contact can signal shifts in geopolitics, ceasefire discussions, or broader negotiations involving figures such as Vance, Rubio, Witkoff, Kushner, or Trump-linked diplomatic channels, depending on which person is listed in the market. The prediction window runs through June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, so traders will be watching official statements and credible media reports for confirmation. Current market probability is about 6.55%, suggesting low odds that the specified individual will attend, according to prevailing market sentiment in this prediction market.",54127.64876800003,{"id":221,"title":222,"slug":223,"category":8,"subcategory":9,"tags":224,"probability":229,"createdAt":230,"updatedAt":231,"resolutionDate":65,"description":232,"summary":233,"volume1wk":234,"featured":144},"81557","Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?","who-will-be-the-next-prime-minister-of-israel-after-the-next-election",[9,225,226,36,12,14,61,227,228,90],"Middle East","Israel","Trump-Netanyahu","Main Election",33.5,"2026-05-30T10:42:45.925Z","2026-05-30T10:40:16.227Z","Legislative elections are schedule to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. \n\nThis market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Israel following the 2026 parliamentary election. If an election is called early, this market will immediately resolve to the individual who is officially appointed and sworn in after that election.\n\nTo count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market.\n\nIf no such Prime Minister is sworn in by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.","Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election? is a political prediction market tracking the outcome of Israel’s next parliamentary contest and the official leadership that follows. The market is focused on who will be formally appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Israel after the legislative elections scheduled for October 27, 2026, or after any earlier election if one is called. Interim or caretaker prime ministers do not count for resolution, and the event will settle to “Other” if no qualifying appointment is made by December 31, 2027.\n\nThis forecast matters because Israel’s leadership outcome has major implications for domestic politics, coalition building, and broader Middle East geopolitics. Traders are effectively pricing the expected outcome of the election process, using official government sources and credible reporting to assess the odds. The current market probability for the next Prime Minister is 33.5%, reflecting ongoing market sentiment rather than a certain result. As a result, this event combines election forecasting, political probability, and succession analysis in a single prediction market tied to one of the most closely watched political developments in Israel.",1596027.5789649999,{"id":236,"title":237,"slug":238,"category":8,"subcategory":239,"tags":240,"probability":245,"createdAt":246,"updatedAt":247,"resolutionDate":65,"description":248,"summary":249,"volume1wk":250,"featured":144},"118172","Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?","will-trump-acquire-greenland-before-2027","Denmark",[239,241,242,9,34,243,244],"Foreign Policy","Greenland","Davos","Parent For Derivative",6.85,"2026-05-30T10:42:53.247Z","2026-05-30T10:40:16.007Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the United States officially announces that Greenland will come under US sovereignty by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nSovereignty is defined as the transfer of the majority of the territory of Greenland from its current status as an autonomous territory within the Kingdom of Denmark to being under the formal governance or jurisdiction of the United States, either as a state, territory, or other classification within the US system.\n\nAn official announcement made by the United States and Denmark that Greenland will come under US sovereignty will qualify, even if the actual transfer of sovereignty is yet to occur. Only announcements of official agreements or actions (e.g. executive order, signed legislation, etc.) will count - mere posts on Social Media will not.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the US, Greenland, and Denmark, however a consensus of credible reporting confirming that Greenland has come under U.S. sovereignty will also qualify.","Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? is a political prediction market focused on whether the United States will officially announce, by December 31, 2026, that Greenland will come under U.S. sovereignty. The market resolves to Yes only if there is an official announcement or action from the United States and Denmark showing Greenland will be transferred from its current status as an autonomous territory within the Kingdom of Denmark to U.S. governance or jurisdiction. Social media posts alone do not count; the resolution must be based on official government information or credible reporting confirming sovereignty change. This event matters because it sits at the intersection of U.S. foreign policy, Denmark, Greenland, and Trump-related geopolitical expectations. Traders are forecasting a low-probability outcome: current market probability is about 6.85%, suggesting the market sentiment leans strongly toward No. As a prediction market event, it reflects odds on a highly unusual diplomatic scenario rather than a conventional policy vote, with the start date in late December 2025 and the deadline at the end of 2026.",163653.88236500078,{"id":252,"title":253,"slug":254,"category":8,"subcategory":255,"tags":256,"probability":259,"createdAt":260,"updatedAt":261,"resolutionDate":262,"description":263,"summary":264,"volume1wk":265,"featured":144},"511049","Will the House pass a reconciliation bill by...?","will-the-house-pass-a-reconciliation-bill-by","DHS",[255,196,257,258,9],"us house","CPB",0.35,"2026-05-30T10:43:15.465Z","2026-05-30T10:40:15.090Z","2026-09-30T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the US House passes a reconciliation bill by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US Government. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.","\"Will the House pass a reconciliation bill by...?\" is a political prediction market asking whether the US House of Representatives will pass a reconciliation bill by the specified deadline, with resolution set for 11:59 PM ET on the end date. The market is tied to official US government information, with credible reporting also used as part of the resolution process. In practical terms, traders are forecasting whether Congress can move a budget-related reconciliation measure through the House before time expires. As of the latest market data, the implied probability is about 35%, suggesting market sentiment leans toward a No outcome, though the odds remain meaningful and can change with legislative developments. This event sits in the Politics category and is relevant to Congress, the US House, and broader federal budget and domestic policy debates. The forecast matters because reconciliation bills often carry major policy implications and can signal how much legislative support leaders can secure. The event started on May 21, 2026, and remains open through September 30, 2026, making it a time-sensitive event prediction watched closely by political observers and prediction market participants.",18934.815701000007,{"id":267,"title":268,"slug":269,"category":8,"subcategory":61,"tags":270,"probability":272,"createdAt":273,"updatedAt":274,"resolutionDate":65,"description":275,"summary":276,"volume1wk":277,"featured":144},"79953","Will a US ally get a nuke before 2027?","will-a-us-ally-get-a-nuke-before-2027",[61,34,9,271,241,36,226],"Ukraine",9.9,"2026-05-30T10:43:04.266Z","2026-05-30T10:40:12.877Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, a claimant government, or a consensus of credible global news sources officially confirm that a US ally which did not possess nuclear weapons as of November 12, 2025, possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. \n\nIf a US ally participates in a nuclear sharing agreement that does not include independent control over nuclear weapons, this will not qualify for \"Yes\" resolution. Only full control over an operational nuclear weapon will count. Any admission from Israel of the possession of a nuclear weapon will not qualify for a \"Yes\" resolution.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, a \"US ally\" is defined as a country that is a member of NATO or a Major Non-NATO Ally (https:\u002F\u002Fwww.state.gov\u002Fmajor-non-nato-ally-status\u002F) as of November 12, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\n","Will a US ally get a nuke before 2027? is a politics prediction market asking whether any NATO member or Major Non-NATO Ally will be credibly confirmed to possess an operational nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026. The forecast focuses on full independent control of a nuclear weapon, not nuclear sharing arrangements, and excludes cases such as an Israeli admission that does not meet the market’s resolution rules. This makes the event a closely defined test of geopolitical escalation, alliance security, and nuclear proliferation risk.\n\nThe market matters because it tracks how traders assess the odds of a major change in global security conditions involving the United States, Europe, Ukraine, Israel, and wider foreign policy dynamics. Current market probability is about 9.9%, suggesting participants see the event as possible but unlikely. As a prediction market, it reflects market sentiment and the expected outcome based on available information rather than a guarantee. The event starts on November 13, 2025 and resolves by the end of 2026, making timing and credible reporting from international nuclear agencies, governments, or major global news sources central to any final decision.",44797.932495,{"id":279,"title":280,"slug":281,"category":8,"subcategory":9,"tags":282,"probability":285,"createdAt":286,"updatedAt":287,"resolutionDate":288,"description":289,"summary":290,"volume1wk":291,"featured":144},"534841","Elon Musk # tweets May 30 - June 1, 2026?","elon-musk-of-tweets-may-30-june-1",[9,75,283,284],"Tweet Markets","Rewards Automation 100 4.5 50 (1)",58.5,"2026-05-30T10:42:56.588Z","2026-05-30T10:40:08.047Z","2026-06-01T16:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from May 30 12:00 PM ET to June 1, 2026 12:00 PM ET.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.\n\nReplies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https:\u002F\u002Fx.com\u002Felonmusk\u002Fstatus\u002F1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.\n\nDeleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).\n\nCommunity reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https:\u002F\u002Fxtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking \"Export Data\". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.","Elon Musk # tweets May 30 - June 1, 2026? is a prediction market on how many times Elon Musk (@elonmusk) will post on X during the specified window, from May 30, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET to June 1, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. The forecast counts main feed posts, quote posts, and reposts, while replies do not count unless they appear as tracked main-feed replies. Deleted posts may count if captured by the tracker, and the market resolves using the Post Counter on xtracker.polymarket.com, with X as a backup source if needed. \n\nThis event matters because Musk’s posting frequency often draws heavy attention across politics, culture, and social media trading. Market sentiment is currently pricing in a 58.5% probability for the measured outcome, giving traders a live view of the expected outcome and odds over the short resolution period. As a tweet market and political prediction market, it reflects real-time forecasting around Musk’s activity rather than a policy or election result.",105491.822675,{"id":293,"title":294,"slug":295,"category":8,"subcategory":104,"tags":296,"probability":299,"createdAt":300,"updatedAt":301,"resolutionDate":108,"description":302,"summary":303,"volume1wk":304,"featured":144},"511096","US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by...?","us-x-cuba-diplomatic-meeting-by-763",[104,9,34,36,297,298],"Castro","Diaz-Canel",72.55,"2026-05-30T10:42:59.674Z","2026-05-30T10:39:56.988Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Cuba between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nA diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Cuba relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. \n\nBrief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.\n\nThe meeting must be in-person and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.\n\nThe resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Cuba, and a consensus of credible reporting.","US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by...? is a politics prediction market asking whether an in-person diplomatic meeting will take place between official representatives of the United States and Cuba before the listed deadline of 11:59 PM ET on June 30, 2026. The market resolves to Yes only if the meeting is deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation over US-Cuba relations and is publicly acknowledged by either government or confirmed by a consensus of credible media. Indirect meetings through authorized mediators can count, but remote calls, chance encounters, and informal conversations do not.\n\nThis event matters because US-Cuba relations remain geopolitically sensitive, and even a single official meeting can signal a shift in diplomatic engagement. Current market probability is about 72.55%, indicating that traders currently assign a relatively high chance of an expected outcome in favor of a meeting before the deadline. As a political forecast, the market reflects sentiment around Cuba, the United States, and broader geopolitics, including attention to figures and themes tied to Trump, Castro, and Diaz-Canel. The event prediction will be resolved using official government information and credible reporting.",68566.0497199998,{"id":306,"title":307,"slug":308,"category":8,"subcategory":9,"tags":309,"probability":37,"createdAt":310,"updatedAt":311,"resolutionDate":51,"description":312,"summary":313,"volume1wk":314,"featured":144},"435920","Epstein suicide note released by...?","epstein-suicide-note-released-by",[9,186,34],"2026-05-30T10:43:07.354Z","2026-05-30T10:39:55.181Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if any message or note written by Jeffrey Epstein, intended as a suicide note, is made publicly available by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nA qualifying note must be credibly reported to have been written by Jeffrey Epstein and have been intended to be a suicide note, final message, or equivalent communication.\n\nA qualifying message or note may be made widely available to the public by any means, regardless of whether it is released officially, leaked, or otherwise disclosed.\n\nThe resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.\n","Epstein suicide note released by...? is a politics prediction market asking whether any message or note credibly reported to have been written by Jeffrey Epstein, and intended as a suicide note or final message, will be made publicly available by the listed deadline of 11:59 PM ET on May 31, 2026. The market resolves to “Yes” only if credible reporting confirms that such a note or equivalent communication is disclosed to the public, whether through official release, a leak, or another form of publication. Otherwise, it resolves to “No.”\n\nThis event matters because it focuses on a high-profile and closely watched question involving Jeffrey Epstein, public disclosure, and politically sensitive media reporting. For traders, the prediction market is a way to gauge expected outcome and market sentiment around whether qualifying evidence will surface before the cutoff. Current market probability is 0%, indicating no priced expectation of a release at this time, though odds can change quickly if new credible reports emerge.",34092.44948,{"id":316,"title":317,"slug":318,"category":8,"subcategory":9,"tags":319,"probability":259,"createdAt":323,"updatedAt":324,"resolutionDate":108,"description":325,"summary":326,"volume1wk":327,"featured":144},"52166","Where will Trump and Putin meet next?","where-will-trump-and-putin-meet-next-584",[9,34,36,320,271,61,321,322],"Russia","putin","Trump Presidency","2026-05-30T10:42:56.070Z","2026-05-30T10:39:37.394Z","This market will resolve according to the location of the next meeting between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin between September 30 and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.\n\nThis market will resolve to \"No meeting by June 30\" if no qualifying meeting occurs during this market's timeframe.\n\nA meeting is defined as any encounter where Putin and Trump are all present and interact with each other in person.\n\nAn exchange of words, handshake, direct conversation, or other clear personal interaction between the named individuals will qualify as a meeting. Merely standing in proximity, making eye contact, or being present in the same room or event without direct interaction will not qualify.\n\nFor this market, Gulf states are defined as the six members of the Gulf Cooperation Council (Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates).\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.","Where will Trump and Putin meet next? is a political prediction market asking traders to forecast the location of the next in-person meeting between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin. The market resolves based on credible reporting and will close out with \"No meeting by June 30\" if no qualifying encounter happens between September 30, 2025 and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. A meeting requires direct personal interaction, such as a handshake, conversation, or other clear exchange, not just being in the same place. If a meeting does occur, the location will determine the outcome, including possibilities tied to Gulf states as defined by the six GCC members. This event matters because any Trump-Putin meeting could signal changes in Russia, Ukraine, and broader geopolitics, making it a closely watched event prediction for political analysts and market participants. Current market probability stands at about 35%, indicating traders see a meaningful chance of a qualifying meeting before the deadline, but far from certainty. The forecast reflects live market sentiment, odds, and the expected outcome as the resolution window approaches.",110891.046926,{"id":329,"title":330,"slug":331,"category":8,"subcategory":14,"tags":332,"probability":137,"createdAt":334,"updatedAt":335,"resolutionDate":336,"description":337,"summary":338,"volume1wk":339,"featured":144},"83707","Chungcheongnam Province Governor Election Winner","chungcheongnam-province-governor-election-winner",[14,12,333,9,61,13,228],"South Korea","2026-05-30T10:42:56.461Z","2026-05-30T10:39:26.667Z","2026-06-03T00:00:00.000Z","The Chungcheongnam Province gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in South Korea on June 3, 2026 to elect the next governor of Chungcheongnam Province. \n\nThis market will resolve according to the candidate that wins this election.\n\nIf the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThis market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the South Korean government, specifically the National Election Commission (https:\u002F\u002Fwww.nec.go.kr\u002F).\n","Chungcheongnam Province Governor Election Winner is a political prediction market focused on the South Korean gubernatorial election in Chungcheongnam Province, scheduled for June 3, 2026. The market asks traders to forecast which candidate will win the race for governor, with resolution based on the election outcome as confirmed by credible reporting and, if needed, the official results from South Korea’s National Election Commission. If the result is not known by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to Other. As a global elections event in the Politics category, it reflects broader market sentiment on one of South Korea’s regional executive contests. The current market probability is about 5%, indicating relatively low odds for the specified outcome at the time of the latest update. This event prediction is relevant to observers tracking South Korea elections, provincial politics, and election winner forecasts, especially as the start date and election deadline approach.",106395.785802,{"id":341,"title":342,"slug":343,"category":8,"subcategory":344,"tags":345,"probability":150,"createdAt":346,"updatedAt":347,"resolutionDate":51,"description":348,"summary":349,"volume1wk":350,"featured":144},"410152","Will Trump publicly insult someone on...?","will-trump-publicly-insult-someone-on-312","Trump Daily",[344,9,75,34],"2026-05-30T10:42:49.889Z","2026-05-30T10:39:11.319Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Donald Trump makes any public statement in which he insults, mocks, or attacks any non-fictional individual personally or professionally in a clearly negative manner on the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\". \n\nThis includes calling the individual weak, stupid, disloyal, a failure, using an insulting nickname, using other derogatory language, or using the negative form of a positive trait in a derogatory personal way (e.g., “He\u002FShe isn’t smart”). Negative forms used in reference to the individual's professional actions, policies, or decisions (e.g., “He\u002FShe isn’t being smart about this policy”) will not count. Policy disagreements stated without disparaging language will not count.\n\nA direct reference will qualify even if the individual is not named, so long as it is reasonably clear from context that they are the subject.\n\nAny written, verbal, or recorded public statement by Trump qualifies.\n\nThe resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.","Will Trump publicly insult someone on...? is a Politics prediction market asking whether Donald Trump will make a public statement on the specified date in which he insults, mocks, or personally attacks a real person. The market resolves to Yes if Trump uses clearly negative personal or professional language toward a non-fictional individual in any public written, verbal, or recorded statement; otherwise it resolves to No. Policy criticism without disparaging language does not count, which makes the resolution criteria important for traders following the event prediction closely. This Trump Daily market reflects ongoing interest in Trump’s public messaging and the way market sentiment shifts around his speeches, interviews, posts, and appearances. Current market probability is 100%, indicating traders overwhelmingly expect the expected outcome to be a Yes, though prediction market odds can still change if no qualifying statement is made before resolution. The relevant timeframe runs from the market’s start date through the end date, with final resolution based on a consensus of credible reporting.",360395.0729890001,{"id":352,"title":353,"slug":354,"category":8,"subcategory":32,"tags":355,"probability":37,"createdAt":356,"updatedAt":357,"resolutionDate":108,"description":358,"summary":359,"volume1wk":360,"featured":144},"435151","JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by...?","jd-vance-diplomatic-meeting-with-iran-by-876",[32,33,34,35,9,36,31],"2026-05-30T10:43:07.582Z","2026-05-30T10:39:05.425Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if there is a diplomatic meeting between JD Vance as representative of the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nTo qualify, JD Vance must be physically present at the meeting and actively participate as a negotiator representing the United States.\n\nA diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. \n\nBrief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.\n\nThe meeting must be in-person and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.\n\nThe resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.","JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by...? is a political prediction market asking whether JD Vance will take part in an in-person diplomatic meeting with Iran as a representative of the United States by the market’s deadline. The contract resolves to Yes only if Vance is physically present, actively negotiates on behalf of the U.S., and the meeting is publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Indirect diplomacy through authorized mediators can count, but brief encounters, remote calls, or informal talks do not. This event matters because any verified U.S.-Iran diplomatic contact involving a senior American official would be a meaningful signal in geopolitics and Iran policy, with implications for broader market sentiment around U.S.-Iran relations and potential ceasefire or negotiation scenarios. The forecast window runs from the market’s start on May 1, 2026 through the June 30, 2026 deadline at 11:59 PM ET. Current market probability is 0%, indicating traders see the expected outcome as unlikely at present, though that can change as new diplomatic reporting emerges.",33500.979857,{"id":362,"title":363,"slug":364,"category":8,"subcategory":9,"tags":365,"probability":371,"createdAt":372,"updatedAt":373,"resolutionDate":108,"description":374,"summary":375,"volume1wk":376,"featured":144},"372273","Where will the next US-Iran diplomatic meeting happen?","where-will-the-next-us-iran-diplomatic-meeting-happen-455",[9,241,35,366,36,32,367,31,34,368,369,33,370],"Nuclear","Khamenei","nuclear deal","Israel x Iran","Rewards 50, 4.5, 100",35.75,"2026-05-30T10:42:48.812Z","2026-05-30T10:39:05.009Z","This market will resolve according to the country in which the next diplomatic meeting between government representatives of the United States and Iran takes place by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.\n\nA diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. \n\nBrief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.\n\nThe meeting must be in-person (including indirect meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.\n\nIf the next diplomatic meeting between government representatives of the United States and Iran takes place in any country in the Middle East or North Africa other than the listed options, this market will resolve to “Other - Middle East\u002FNorth Africa”. \n\nIf the next diplomatic meeting between government representatives of the United States and Iran takes place in any country in Europe other than the listed options, this market will resolve to “Other - Europe”.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, additional countries’ regions will be determined based on the US State Department’s regional classifications in the “Countries and Areas List” (https:\u002F\u002Fwww.state.gov\u002Fcountries-and-areas-list). Any country classified as part of “Europe and Eurasia” will be considered to be in Europe. Any country classified as part of “Near East (Middle East and North Africa)” will be considered to be in the Middle East.\n\nIf the next diplomatic meeting between government representatives of the United States and Iran takes place in any unlisted country which is not classified in either of the specified regions, this market will resolve to “Other”.\n\nIf no qualifying meeting takes place by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Meeting by June 30”.\n\nIf a qualifying meeting occurs in more than one country, resolution will be based on where the first qualifying diplomatic session takes place.\n\nThe resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.","“Where will the next US-Iran diplomatic meeting happen?” is a Politics prediction market that asks traders to forecast the country hosting the next in-person diplomatic meeting between government representatives of the United States and Iran. The market resolves based on the first qualifying session held by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, with official government acknowledgments or credible media reporting used for resolution.\n\nThe event matters because any US-Iran meeting can signal movement on foreign policy, nuclear negotiations, regional security, or broader geopolitical tensions involving Iran, Israel, and Middle East diplomacy. The rules also allow indirect meetings through authorized mediators, while remote calls, casual encounters, or unofficial talks do not count. If no qualifying meeting occurs by the deadline, the outcome resolves to “No Meeting by June 30.”\n\nCurrent market probability is about 35.75%, suggesting traders see a meeting in one of the listed locations as possible but far from certain. The prediction market’s odds and sentiment may continue to shift as diplomatic developments emerge over the event window, which runs from April 12, 2026 through June 30, 2026.",513940.70543900004,{"id":378,"title":379,"slug":380,"category":8,"subcategory":32,"tags":381,"probability":37,"createdAt":382,"updatedAt":383,"resolutionDate":51,"description":384,"summary":385,"volume1wk":386,"featured":144},"449163","Israel closes its airspace by...?","israel-closes-its-airspace-by",[32,226,9,36,369],"2026-05-30T10:42:46.145Z","2026-05-30T10:38:24.359Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. \n\nA “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).\n\nWarnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.\n\nAirspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.","Israel closes its airspace by...? is a political prediction market focused on whether Israel will initiate a major closure of its civilian airspace by 11:59 PM ET on the specified deadline. The forecast asks traders to assess the likelihood of a broad suspension, cancellation, or shutdown of commercial aviation affecting all of Israeli airspace or a majority portion of it. According to the market rules, limited delays, isolated regional restrictions, airline-ordered suspensions, or weather-related disruptions do not count. The event matters because an airspace closure would be a significant geopolitical and aviation development, especially given the Israel x Iran context reflected in the market tags and category. Market sentiment can shift quickly based on official aviation authority notices, credible reporting, or changes in regional security conditions. As of the latest data, the market probability is 0%, indicating the current expected outcome is that no qualifying closure will occur before the end date. The market runs from May 4, 2026 through May 31, 2026, making the timing central to any event prediction.",1481312.027388,{"id":388,"title":389,"slug":390,"category":8,"subcategory":391,"tags":392,"probability":395,"createdAt":396,"updatedAt":397,"resolutionDate":398,"description":399,"summary":400,"volume1wk":401,"featured":144},"514577","Texas Senate Republican Primary Runoff Margin of Victory (Larger Brackets)","texas-senate-republican-primary-runoff-margin-of-victory-larger-brackets","Texas Senate",[391,11,393,16,9,394,12],"Cornyn","Paxton",1.85,"2026-05-30T10:42:56.288Z","2026-05-30T10:38:09.611Z","2026-05-26T00:00:00.000Z","The Texas Senate Republican primary runoff election is scheduled for May 26, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff election.\n\nFor the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.\n\nIf the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket (ascending).\n\nIf two candidates receive the same number of valid votes, this market will resolve according to the candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically.\n\nThis market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.\n\nIf the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Texas, such as official statewide results published by the Texas Secretary of State (https:\u002F\u002Felections.sos.state.tx.us\u002Findex.htm); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.\n\nIf a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.","Texas Senate Republican Primary Runoff Margin of Victory (Larger Brackets) is a political prediction market focused on how wide the winning margin will be in the Texas Senate Republican primary runoff. The forecast centers on the absolute difference in valid vote percentages between the first- and second-place candidates, with the market resolving to a larger bracket if the reported margin falls exactly between two ranges. The runoff is scheduled for May 26, 2026, and the market will use the official Texas vote count once results are certified by the State of Texas or confirmed by strong credible reporting. If a recount delays certification, the event remains open until the result is official. Traders are watching a contest tied to Texas Senate, US elections, and the Republican primary environment, with Cornyn and Paxton among the relevant political names associated with the race. Current market probability is about 1.85%, suggesting traders assign a low chance to the specific bracket outcome reflected in this listing. As a prediction market event, it captures market sentiment on the expected outcome and margin of victory rather than simply who wins the runoff.",107148.693267,{"id":403,"title":404,"slug":405,"category":8,"subcategory":9,"tags":406,"probability":408,"createdAt":409,"updatedAt":410,"resolutionDate":65,"description":411,"summary":412,"volume1wk":413,"featured":144},"424982","Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)","next-leader-out-of-power-before-2027-no-orban",[9,36,116,407],"Rewards 20, 4.5, 50",0.55,"2026-05-30T10:42:58.505Z","2026-05-30T10:38:07.644Z","This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office.\n\nAn announcement of a resignation\u002Fremoval, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify.\n\nOnly permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count.\n\nAdditionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market.\n\nIf this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.","Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban) is a political prediction market tracking which listed leader, if any, will permanently leave office before the end of 2026. The market is resolved by the first individual who ceases to occupy their official post on a permanent basis; resignations, announced departures, election defeats, temporary suspensions, caretaker arrangements, and other provisional transfers of power do not count. If none of the listed leaders is permanently removed by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET, the event will resolve to “None before 2027.”\n\nThis forecast matters because it reflects broader market sentiment on political stability and leadership continuity across geopolitics. Traders are effectively pricing the odds that an incumbent will be out of power before 2027, with the current market probability around 55%. The event begins on April 27, 2026 and runs through the year-end deadline, making timing central to the expected outcome. Resolution will rely on a consensus of credible reporting, and no additional individuals will be added after creation. The market includes political signals relevant to leaders such as Starmer and other officeholders tracked under the politics category.",78611.78747899999,{"id":415,"title":416,"slug":417,"category":8,"subcategory":9,"tags":418,"probability":419,"createdAt":420,"updatedAt":421,"resolutionDate":65,"description":422,"summary":423,"volume1wk":424,"featured":144},"131586","Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027?","is-jeffrey-epstein-alive-498",[9,186,34],4.95,"2026-05-30T10:43:10.095Z","2026-05-30T10:37:23.391Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if incontrovertible proof is publicly revealed that Jeff Epstein, the New York financier, is still alive between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.\n","Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027? is a political prediction market asking whether publicly available, incontrovertible proof will emerge showing that New York financier Jeffrey Epstein is still alive before December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The event resolves to “Yes” only if credible sources collectively confirm that outcome; otherwise it resolves to “No.” This makes the forecast straightforward: traders are pricing the odds that new evidence will surface within the market’s active window, which begins on December 29, 2025 and runs through the end of 2026. Market sentiment currently implies a low probability, with the event trading around 4.95%, though prediction market probabilities can shift as information changes. Because the resolution depends on a consensus of credible sources, the market is closely tied to public reporting, verification, and the appearance of authoritative evidence rather than rumor or speculation. As a politics-category event with Epstein and Trump tags, it sits at the intersection of political forecast activity and high-attention media narratives.",26658.750109000004,{"id":426,"title":427,"slug":428,"category":8,"subcategory":9,"tags":429,"probability":430,"createdAt":431,"updatedAt":432,"resolutionDate":51,"description":433,"summary":434,"volume1wk":435,"featured":144},"410144","Who will Trump publicly insult by May 31?","who-will-trump-publicly-insult-by-may-31",[9,75,34],6.5,"2026-05-30T10:43:10.225Z","2026-05-30T10:37:13.878Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Donald Trump makes any public statement in which he insults, mocks, or attacks the listed individual personally or professionally in a clearly negative manner between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\". \n\nThis includes calling the individual weak, stupid, disloyal, a failure, using an insulting nickname, using other derogatory language, or using the negative form of a positive trait in a derogatory personal way (e.g., “He\u002FShe isn’t smart”). Negative forms used in reference to the individual's professional actions, policies, or decisions (e.g., “He\u002FShe isn’t being smart about this policy”) will not count. Policy disagreements stated without disparaging language will not count.\n\nA direct reference will qualify even if the individual is not named, so long as it is reasonably clear from context that they are the subject.\n\nAny written, verbal, or recorded public statement by Trump qualifies.\n\nThe resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.","Who will Trump publicly insult by May 31? is a political prediction market asking whether Donald Trump will make a public statement that insults, mocks, or attacks a listed individual before the market closes on May 31. The forecast is based on any written, verbal, or recorded public remark that clearly targets a person in a negative personal or professional way, such as an insulting nickname, derogatory language, or a direct attack that is reasonably identifiable from context. Policy disagreements without personal disparagement do not count. This event matters because it turns Trump’s public rhetoric into a measurable event prediction, giving traders a way to express market sentiment on how often he may target specific figures. As of the latest reading, the market implies about a 6.5% probability of a qualifying insult by the deadline. Resolution will rely on a consensus of credible reporting, making the end date and public record central to the outcome.",26388.739057000006,{"id":437,"title":438,"slug":439,"category":8,"subcategory":440,"tags":441,"probability":37,"createdAt":442,"updatedAt":443,"resolutionDate":108,"description":444,"summary":445,"volume1wk":446,"featured":144},"478614","Will Trump restart Project Freedom by...?","will-trump-restart-project-freedom-by","Strait of Hormuz",[440,9,36,34,32,35],"2026-05-30T10:42:47.687Z","2026-05-30T10:37:00.199Z","Project Freedom was a U.S.-led military initiative to escort commercial ships through the Strait of Hormuz.\n\nThis market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump, the United States government, or the United States military announces that Project Freedom will be restarted by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn announcement explicitly stating that “Project Freedom” will be restarted will qualify. Additionally, any announcement of a substantially equivalent United States military program to escort, protect, or retrieve commercial ships in or through the Strait of Hormuz will qualify.\n\nOnly definitive announcements will qualify. Suggestions, expressions of openness, reported preparations, or other non-definitive statements will not qualify.\n\nAny qualifying announcement within this market’s time frame will count, regardless of whether or when the announced program goes into effect.\n\nThe primary resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump, the United States government, and the United States military; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.","Will Trump restart Project Freedom by the market’s deadline? This politics prediction market asks whether Donald Trump, the United States government, or the U.S. military will formally announce that Project Freedom has been restarted by 11:59 PM ET on June 30, 2026. Project Freedom refers to a U.S.-led military initiative designed to escort commercial ships through the Strait of Hormuz, a strategic waterway central to U.S.-Iran geopolitics and maritime security. The forecast resolves to “Yes” only if there is a definitive announcement, either using the Project Freedom name or describing a substantially equivalent U.S. military program to protect, escort, or retrieve commercial vessels in or through the Strait of Hormuz. Non-committal comments, planning signals, or expressions of openness do not qualify. As a political forecast tied to the Strait of Hormuz and broader Iran-related tensions, the event draws attention from traders watching U.S. foreign policy, military posture, and escalation risk. Current market probability is not shown in the data, so the event’s odds should be interpreted through market sentiment and incoming official announcements before the end date.",790101.2676500006,{"id":448,"title":449,"slug":450,"category":8,"subcategory":9,"tags":451,"probability":452,"createdAt":453,"updatedAt":454,"resolutionDate":51,"description":455,"summary":456,"volume1wk":457,"featured":144},"431724","Who will Trump speak to in May?","who-will-trump-speak-to-in-may",[9,34,36],0.9,"2026-05-30T10:43:04.216Z","2026-05-30T10:36:58.934Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the listed individual speaks with Donald Trump between May 1 and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to \"No\".\n\nSpeaking is defined as any verbal interaction between the listed individual and Donald Trump, occurring either in person or through verbal communication by phone or video call.\n\nThe resolution source will be credible media reporting. However, in the absence of definitive or in the case of contradictory media reporting, statements by either of the specified individuals or their official representatives will also be considered.\n\nStatements by the specified individuals or their official representatives will only be considered conclusive if the claims explicitly, or in context unambiguously, indicate that a qualifying talk occurred within the specified timeframe and took place via verbal communication, and provided that such claims are not contradicted by the other specified individual, their representatives, or credible media reporting by the end of the third calendar date (ET) following the statement in question.\n\nIf the date\u002Ftime of a qualifying talk cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day following this market's above-specified timeframe, it will resolve to \"No\" regardless of whether it was later confirmed to have taken place.","\"Who will Trump speak to in May?\" is a political prediction market asking whether a listed individual will have a verbal interaction with Donald Trump between May 1 and May 31, 2026, by phone, video call, or in person. The market resolves to Yes only if credible media reporting confirms the conversation within the specified timeframe, with statements from the individuals or their representatives serving as backup evidence under the market’s rules. This makes the event a focused forecast on Trump’s communications during a narrow political window, with resolution tied to clear reporting standards.\n\nAs a Politics category market with a Trump and Geopolitics angle, it is relevant to traders tracking U.S. political developments, public signaling, and potential high-profile contacts. The current market probability is about 90%, indicating strong market sentiment that the expected outcome will be a qualifying conversation. Because the end date is May 31, 2026, and confirmation rules extend briefly beyond that window, the event remains dependent on timely media verification rather than later retrospective reports.",45182.403033,{"id":459,"title":460,"slug":461,"category":8,"subcategory":462,"tags":463,"probability":37,"createdAt":469,"updatedAt":470,"resolutionDate":65,"description":471,"summary":472,"volume1wk":473,"featured":144},"255195","Iran leadership change by...?","iran-leadership-change-by","Mojtaba",[462,464,9,465,36,32,367,466,467,468],"ayatollah","Iran Regime","Mojtaba Khamenei","Khamenei out","Mojtaba out","2026-05-30T10:42:46.955Z","2026-05-30T10:36:56.009Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nMojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.\n\nAn official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a \"Yes\" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. ","Iran leadership change by...? is a political prediction market asking whether Mojtaba Khamenei will cease to be the de facto leader of Iran before the listed deadline. The event focuses on a potential leadership change within Iran’s ruling structure and resolves to “Yes” if Mojtaba Khamenei is removed from power, detained, or otherwise prevented from acting as de facto leader during the market’s timeframe. An official announcement of resignation or removal also counts, even if the departure takes effect later. The market runs from March 9, 2026 through December 31, 2026 (ET), giving traders a long window to assess geopolitical developments, regime stability, and credible reporting on Iran’s leadership dynamics. As a political forecast, it sits within the broader category of Iran regime and geopolitics events, where market sentiment can shift quickly on news about the Khamenei family, succession, or internal power changes. Current market probability is 0%, indicating no priced expectation of a leadership change at the moment, though odds can move as new information emerges.",1094273.9888659997,{"id":475,"title":476,"slug":477,"category":8,"subcategory":34,"tags":478,"probability":480,"createdAt":481,"updatedAt":482,"resolutionDate":51,"description":483,"summary":484,"volume1wk":485,"featured":144},"521054","What will Trump say this week? (May 31)","what-will-trump-say-this-week-may-31-963",[34,9,479],"Mentions",4.7,"2026-05-30T10:43:12.218Z","2026-05-30T10:36:38.817Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump mentions the listed term between May 25, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nPlural and possessive forms of the listed term will count toward the resolution of this market regardless of context; however, other forms will NOT count.\n\nInstances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for \"joy,\" however \"killjoy\" is a compounding of the words \"kill\" and \"joy\").\n\nIf this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe \u002F Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).\n\nA ‘mention’ will include any verbal mention which is recorded (audio or video) and publicly accessible.\n\nWritten usages of terms (e.g. Truth Social posts, written statements, etc.) will not count toward this market's resolution.\n\nAI-generated audio or video will not count toward this market's resolution.\n\nVideos posted on his social media which were filmed outside this market's time frame will not qualify for a \"Yes\" resolution.","What will Trump say this week? (May 31) is a political prediction market centered on whether Donald Trump will verbally mention any listed term during the resolution window from May 25, 2026, 12:00 AM ET through May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The market resolves to Yes if the term is publicly and audibly mentioned in recorded audio or video; written posts, including Truth Social statements, do not count. The rules also specify that plural and possessive forms count, while other forms do not, and AI-generated audio or video is excluded.\n\nThis event matters because traders are forecasting Trump’s public messaging and the likelihood of specific words or themes appearing in his remarks. In prediction market terms, it is a short-horizon event prediction tied to political communication rather than policy outcomes. Current market probability is about 4.7%, indicating low odds that the condition will be met before the deadline. As the end date approaches, market sentiment may shift quickly based on rallies, interviews, or other publicly accessible appearances.",22890.385796000006,{"id":487,"title":488,"slug":489,"category":8,"subcategory":9,"tags":490,"probability":491,"createdAt":492,"updatedAt":493,"resolutionDate":65,"description":494,"summary":495,"volume1wk":496,"featured":144},"143691","Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?","will-the-us-invade-cuba-in-2026",[9,103,36,104],22.5,"2026-05-30T10:42:55.304Z","2026-05-30T10:36:33.228Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Cuban land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Cuba or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.","Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? is a political prediction market focused on whether the United States will begin a military offensive intended to establish control over any part of Cuban land territory by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. The market resolves to “Yes” only if credible sources show such an invasion or offensive; otherwise it resolves to “No.” In this context, the definition of sovereign territory also accounts for land de facto controlled by either Cuba or the United States at market creation.\n\nThis event matters because it sits at the intersection of U.S. foreign policy, geopolitics, and Caribbean security. Traders are effectively forecasting the expected outcome of a major escalation between the U.S. and Cuba, with market sentiment reflecting how likely such a confrontation appears over the 2026 timeframe. As of the latest data, the market probability is about 22.5%, suggesting the event is viewed as possible but far from the base case.\n\nThe prediction window opened on January 4, 2026 and runs through year-end, making this a live event prediction with updates likely to track diplomatic and military developments.",123129.36060900002,{"id":498,"title":499,"slug":500,"category":8,"subcategory":61,"tags":501,"probability":502,"createdAt":503,"updatedAt":504,"resolutionDate":65,"description":505,"summary":506,"volume1wk":507,"featured":144},"74056","Where will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next before 2027?","where-will-zelenskyy-and-putin-meet-next",[61,9,271,34,36],2.6,"2026-05-30T10:43:22.898Z","2026-05-30T10:36:31.525Z","This market will resolve according to the location of the next meeting between Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Vladimir Putin by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. If no meeting takes place by December 31 ET, this market will resolve to \"No meeting before 2027\".\n\nA meeting is defined as any encounter where Zelenskyy and Putin are both present and interact with each other in person.\n\nFor the purpose of this market, a meeting held on Ukrainian territory under the de facto control of Russia (e.g., Crimea) will be considered part of Russia.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.\n","Where will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next before 2027? is a political prediction market asking traders to forecast the location of the next in-person meeting between Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Vladimir Putin. The market resolves based on credible reporting about the first meeting where both leaders are present and interact, with a deadline of December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. If no meeting occurs by then, the outcome is \"No meeting before 2027.\" The event sits at the intersection of world politics, Ukraine, and geopolitics, and it reflects market sentiment about whether direct talks between the Ukrainian and Russian presidents will happen again within the stated timeframe. Current market probability is about 2.6%, suggesting traders see a low chance of a meeting before the resolution date. Because the resolution source relies on consensus media coverage, the forecast is focused on documented diplomatic developments rather than speculation. This prediction market is relevant for anyone tracking the Russia-Ukraine conflict, peace negotiations, and the broader odds of high-level engagement between the two leaders.",12122.004229,{"id":509,"title":510,"slug":511,"category":8,"subcategory":512,"tags":513,"probability":515,"createdAt":516,"updatedAt":517,"resolutionDate":518,"description":519,"summary":520,"volume1wk":521,"featured":144},"263217","Which parties will be part of the next Government of Slovenia?","which-parties-will-be-part-of-the-next-government-of-slovenia","Slovenia Election",[512,514,12,14,9],"Slovenia",99,"2026-05-30T10:43:21.150Z","2026-05-30T10:36:26.733Z","2026-03-22T00:00:00.000Z","Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Slovenia on March 22, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed political party is included in the first Slovenian government formed after the 2026 Slovenian parliamentary elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThis market may resolve once the first government is officially confirmed following a successful vote of confidence in the Slovenian National Assembly (Državni zbor), with ministers sworn in under non-caretaker circumstances.\n\nA party will only be considered part of the coalition if it signs the coalition agreement and provides at least one cabinet minister. Parties that merely support the government (e.g., through confidence-and-supply arrangements, parliamentary support agreements, or similar) without signing the coalition agreement and holding a cabinet post will not qualify.\n\nIf no government is formed, or the results are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThis market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Government of Slovenia.","Which parties will be part of the next Government of Slovenia? is a political prediction market tied to Slovenia’s parliamentary elections, scheduled for March 22, 2026. The market forecasts which listed political parties will actually join the first government formed after the election, not simply which parties will support it from outside. For a “Yes” resolution, a party must sign the coalition agreement and hold at least one cabinet minister post in the new Slovenian government. If no government is formed, or the outcome is still unresolved by January 31, 2027, the market resolves to “No”.\n\nThis event matters because government formation in Slovenia will determine coalition stability, cabinet control, and the direction of post-election policy. Traders are currently assigning a 99% probability to the event, indicating very strong market sentiment that the listed condition will be met. As a prediction market and political forecast, it reflects expectations around coalition negotiations, confidence votes in the Slovenian National Assembly (Državni zbor), and official confirmation of ministers under a non-caretaker government. The market uses credible reporting and official government information to resolve the expected outcome.",13916.264828000001,{"id":523,"title":524,"slug":525,"category":8,"subcategory":226,"tags":526,"probability":527,"createdAt":528,"updatedAt":529,"resolutionDate":65,"description":530,"summary":531,"volume1wk":532,"featured":144},"73106","US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?","us-iran-nuclear-deal-before-2027",[226,9,241,61,32,225,36,366],77.5,"2026-05-30T10:42:51.722Z","2026-05-30T10:36:08.973Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and\u002For nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nIf such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to \"Yes\", regardless of if\u002Fwhen the agreement goes into effect.\n\nAgreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and\u002For the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.","US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? is a political prediction market asking whether the United States and Iran will reach a publicly announced mutual agreement on Iranian nuclear research and\u002For nuclear weapon development by December 31, 2026. The forecast resolves to Yes if an official deal is announced before the deadline, even if it includes other parties such as in a multilateral agreement, and it will count as No otherwise. This makes the event relevant to foreign policy, geopolitics, the Middle East, and broader Israel-Iran security dynamics. The market is live from November 5, 2025 through the end-of-2026 resolution date, giving traders a clear timeframe to price in shifting diplomatic signals, negotiations, and regional developments. Current market probability sits at about 77.5%, indicating that traders broadly expect some form of agreement before 2027, though the outcome remains uncertain. Resolution depends primarily on an official announcement from the U.S. or Iran, with overwhelming credible reporting also qualifying. As a prediction market, it reflects market sentiment on the likelihood of a nuclear deal rather than a policy endorsement or guarantee.",230446.56788500014,{"id":534,"title":535,"slug":536,"category":8,"subcategory":34,"tags":537,"probability":37,"createdAt":539,"updatedAt":540,"resolutionDate":202,"description":541,"summary":542,"volume1wk":543,"featured":144},"226019","Kash Patel out by...?","kash-patel-out-by",[34,9,538],"Trump Cabinet","2026-05-30T10:43:00.968Z","2026-05-30T10:35:44.922Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if Kash Patel ceases to be the Director of the Federal Bureau of Investigation for any period of by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn announcement of Patel's resignation\u002Fremoval before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to \"Yes\", regardless of when the announced resignation\u002Fremoval goes into effect.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.","Kash Patel out by...? is a political prediction market asking whether Kash Patel will cease to be Director of the Federal Bureau of Investigation for any period by the market’s specified deadline. The event resolves to “Yes” if Patel resigns or is removed before the end date, and it can also resolve immediately on an official announcement from the Trump administration, even if the change takes effect later. If neither occurs, the market resolves to “No.”\n\nThis forecast matters because it tracks the stability of a high-profile Trump administration appointment and reflects market sentiment around personnel changes in the FBI and broader Trump Cabinet politics. Traders are watching official statements and credible reporting for signals that could shift the expected outcome. As of the latest data, the market probability is 0%, indicating no current priced expectation of Patel leaving by the listed timing, though prediction market odds can change quickly as new information emerges.\n\nThe event began on February 23, 2026 and remains active, making it a live political forecast for anyone following Trump-era governance and appointment risk.",59727.20882100001,{"id":545,"title":546,"slug":547,"category":8,"subcategory":548,"tags":549,"probability":551,"createdAt":552,"updatedAt":553,"resolutionDate":108,"description":554,"summary":555,"volume1wk":556,"featured":144},"329682","Evo Morales arrested by...?","evo-morales-arrested-by-may-31","arrest",[548,550,9,75],"Bolivia",2.45,"2026-05-30T10:43:26.122Z","2026-05-30T10:35:23.699Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Evo Morales, former President of Bolivia, is arrested or detained by law enforcement between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nTemporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.\n\nA qualifying arrest\u002Fdetention includes:\n* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)\n* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant\n* Being formally booked or processed following detention\n* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station\n* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney\n* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring\n\nThe following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest\u002Fdetention\n* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed\n* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest\n* Being named in an indictment without arrest\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.","Evo Morales arrested by...? is a political prediction market asking whether former President of Bolivia Evo Morales will be arrested or detained by law enforcement before May 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. The event resolves to Yes if Morales is taken into official custody, formally booked, placed under house arrest, or otherwise detained in a qualifying law-enforcement action; it resolves to No if no such arrest or detention occurs by the deadline. The market excludes situations such as an unexecuted arrest warrant, questioning without arrest, or indictment alone. As a politics category event in the arrest subcategory, it draws attention to developments in Bolivia and any official actions involving national, local, military, or international authorities. Current market probability is about 2.45%, indicating traders see an arrest as possible but unlikely. The forecast reflects market sentiment around legal and political risk rather than certainty, and the outcome depends on official government or law-enforcement reporting, with credible media used as backup if needed. The market is active through the end-of-May 2026 window, making it a time-sensitive event prediction for traders tracking Bolivia politics and arrest-related odds.",10338.039039,{"id":558,"title":559,"slug":560,"category":8,"subcategory":34,"tags":561,"probability":150,"createdAt":562,"updatedAt":563,"resolutionDate":65,"description":564,"summary":565,"volume1wk":566,"featured":144},"73079","Which countries will Donald Trump visit in 2026?","which-countries-will-donald-trump-visit-in-2026",[34,9,241,61,36],"2026-05-30T10:43:01.809Z","2026-05-30T10:35:23.367Z","If U.S. President Donald Trump visits a listed country between January 1 and December 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET, the relevant market will resolve to \"Yes\". Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purpose of this market, a \"visit\" is defined as Trump physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of the listed country. Whether or not Trump enters the country's airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this information will be official information from government of the United States of America, official information from Trump or released by his verified social media accounts (e.g. https:\u002F\u002Ftwitter.com\u002FPOTUS), however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.\n","\"Which countries will Donald Trump visit in 2026?\" is a political prediction market focused on Trump’s foreign travel during 2026. Traders are forecasting whether the U.S. President will physically enter the territory of any listed country between January 1 and December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Under the market rules, a visit requires Trump to enter a country’s terrestrial or maritime territory; airspace alone does not count. The outcome will be resolved using official U.S. government information, statements from Trump or his verified social media accounts, and credible reporting if needed.\n\nAs a Trump and geopolitics market, this event reflects broader market sentiment around foreign policy, diplomacy, and presidential travel. The current market probability is 100%, indicating traders are pricing in a complete expectation that at least one qualifying visit will occur, though prediction market odds can change over time. The market opens on November 5, 2025 and runs through December 31, 2026, making it a long-dated event prediction for political and global affairs watchers.",55049.764308,{"id":568,"title":569,"slug":570,"category":8,"subcategory":571,"tags":572,"probability":573,"createdAt":574,"updatedAt":575,"resolutionDate":576,"description":577,"summary":578,"volume1wk":579,"featured":144},"60182","Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026","nobel-peace-prize-winner-2026-139","Awards",[571,9,36,61],8.5,"2026-05-30T10:42:47.726Z","2026-05-30T10:35:01.766Z","2026-10-10T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee.\n\nIf multiple listed individuals or entities jointly receive the prize, the market will resolve to a single winner. If Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy,  Benjamin Netanyahu, Vladimir Putin, or Elon Musk are among the recipients, the market will resolve to the highest-ranked among them in that exact order of precedence. If none of those five are among the winners and the prize is awarded jointly to at least one listed individual and at least one listed organization, the market will resolve in favor of the individual. If no prioritized individuals are among the winners and all listed recipients are of the same type (all individuals or all organizations), the market will resolve to the person whose last name, or the entity’s name, comes first in alphabetical order as listed in this market.\n\nIf no official announcement regarding the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize has been made by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Other.\"\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.","Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026 is a politics prediction market forecasting who will receive the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee. The market resolves to the official winner, with special rules for joint recipients and several prioritized individuals, including Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Benjamin Netanyahu, Vladimir Putin, and Elon Musk. If no official announcement has been made by March 31, 2027 at 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to Other. This event matters because the Nobel Peace Prize is one of the most closely watched global awards, often reflecting market sentiment around diplomacy, conflict resolution, and international influence. Traders are pricing in a relatively low expected outcome for any single candidate, with current market probability at 8.5%. As a prediction market, it captures shifting odds and event prediction interest across politics, awards, geopolitics, and world affairs. The market opens on October 16, 2025 and is scheduled to end on October 10, 2026, ahead of the official Nobel announcement cycle.",787443.2068170002,{"id":581,"title":582,"slug":583,"category":8,"subcategory":584,"tags":585,"probability":586,"createdAt":587,"updatedAt":588,"resolutionDate":589,"description":590,"summary":591,"volume1wk":592,"featured":144},"432545","Next Prime Minister of Malta","next-prime-minister-of-malta","Malta",[584,9,14,12,228,407],11.85,"2026-05-30T10:42:52.339Z","2026-05-30T10:35:00.632Z","2026-05-30T00:00:00.000Z","General elections are scheduled to be held in Malta on May 30, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve to the individual who is formally appointed as Prime Minister of Malta following the 2026 Maltese general election.\n\nTo count for resolution, the individual must be formally appointed as Prime Minister of Malta following the 2026 Maltese general election. Any interim or caretaker head of government will not count toward the resolution of this market.\n\nIf no such Prime Minister is appointed by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Malta; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.","Next Prime Minister of Malta is a political prediction market on who will be formally appointed as Prime Minister of Malta after the country’s 2026 general election, scheduled for May 30, 2026. The event is tied to Malta’s main election outcome and resolves only when an official prime minister is appointed; any interim or caretaker head of government does not count. If no appointment is made by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “Other.”\n\nAs a forecast event in the Malta politics category, it reflects trader expectations around the post-election government formation process rather than the election result alone. Current market probability is about 11.85%, indicating a relatively modest level of confidence in the expected outcome at this stage. Market sentiment may shift as election day approaches and as credible reporting or official Government of Malta information clarifies the likely appointment.\n\nFor search and event prediction purposes, this market is relevant to Malta elections, political forecast analysis, and the broader question of who will lead the next Maltese सरकार after the 2026 vote.",189625.78451399994,{"id":594,"title":595,"slug":596,"category":8,"subcategory":9,"tags":597,"probability":601,"createdAt":602,"updatedAt":603,"resolutionDate":604,"description":605,"summary":606,"volume1wk":607,"featured":144},"101773","South Dakota Governor Republican Primary Winner","south-dakota-governor-republican-primary-winner",[9,16,132,598,135,599,600],"Governor Primary","South Dakota Primary","June 2 Primaries",38,"2026-05-30T10:43:24.696Z","2026-05-30T10:34:58.440Z","2026-06-02T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of South Dakota, scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off.\n\nIf no 2026 South Dakota Gubernatorial Republican Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.”\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the South Dakota Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.","South Dakota Governor Republican Primary Winner is a political prediction market tracking who will win the Republican Primary for Governor of South Dakota. The forecast is straightforward: traders are pricing the expected outcome of the GOP gubernatorial primary, including any second round or runoff if one occurs. The market is scheduled to resolve based on the official result from the South Dakota Republican Party after the June 2, 2026 primary, with credible consensus reporting able to settle the event if needed. If no 2026 Republican primary is held, the market resolves to “Other.”\n\nAs of the latest update, market probability stands at about 38%, reflecting a competitive and uncertain race rather than a clear frontrunner. That makes this event relevant for observers following South Dakota politics, primary elections, and governor primary dynamics. Like other prediction market listings, the price embeds trader sentiment and the current odds implied by the market, offering a real-time political forecast ahead of the deadline.",11120.642171,{"id":609,"title":610,"slug":611,"category":8,"subcategory":9,"tags":612,"probability":619,"createdAt":620,"updatedAt":621,"resolutionDate":262,"description":622,"summary":623,"volume1wk":624,"featured":144},"431320","Another critical Cloudflare incident by...?","another-critical-cloudflare-incident-by-995",[9,613,614,615,616,617,618],"Industry","outage","hack","Tech","Big Tech","Business",43,"2026-05-30T10:43:26.995Z","2026-05-30T10:34:27.100Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if Cloudflare experiences any incident classified as Critical (red) as of the time it is marked as “Resolved” by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nClassifications of an incident while it is ongoing will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. Only classifications of events that are resolved will be considered.\n\nQualifying incidents include outages and other issues classified as critical when they are resolved, during this market's above-specified timeframe. \n\nAn incident resolved outside this market’s timeframe will only qualify if ongoing at this market’s resolution time, in which case the market will remain open until that incident is marked as “Resolved,” and resolution will be based on the first impact classification thereafter, regardless of subsequent revisions or corrections.\n\nRevisions that upgrade an incident’s impact classification to Critical will qualify if the incident was resolved and the revision is published within this market’s timeframe.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Cloudflare (for example, on cloudflarestatus.com or cloudflarestatus.com\u002Fhistory); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.","“Another critical Cloudflare incident by...?” is a prediction market asking whether Cloudflare will experience another incident classified as Critical (red) before the market’s resolution date. The forecast focuses on official Cloudflare status updates and history pages, with a Yes result only if a resolved incident is marked Critical within the stated timeframe. If an incident is still open at resolution, traders will wait until it is marked resolved, and the first post-resolution impact classification will determine the outcome. The market runs from April 30, 2026 through September 30, 2026 (ET), making the timing important for any outage, hack, or major service disruption affecting the Big Tech cloud infrastructure provider. Current market probability is about 43%, suggesting traders see the event as plausible but far from certain. As with other prediction market contracts, sentiment can shift quickly if Cloudflare reports a serious outage, security issue, or other high-impact incident. This event prediction is relevant to technology, business, and infrastructure watchers tracking service reliability and operational risk.",9788.057319000001,{"id":626,"title":627,"slug":628,"category":8,"subcategory":9,"tags":629,"probability":630,"createdAt":631,"updatedAt":632,"resolutionDate":51,"description":633,"summary":634,"volume1wk":635,"featured":144},"435087","Will Trump praise Allah again by May 31?","will-trump-praise-allah-again-by-may-31",[9,34,32,36,31],3.65,"2026-05-30T10:43:18.646Z","2026-05-30T10:33:58.701Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Donald Trump publicly praises Allah between the time of its creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA qualifying statement includes any remark by Donald Trump that expresses approval, admiration, respect, or reverence for the Islamic deity referred to as Allah. This can include direct praise (e.g., “Praise be to Allah”) or equivalent positive descriptions (“Allah is great”).\n\nGeneral neutrality or polite diplomatic language (e.g., “Yes, I posted about Allah”) will not qualify unless it contains a clear element of positive evaluation.\n\nAny written, verbal, or recorded usage will qualify.\n\nText or speech contained in images, memes, or videos posted by Trump on his official social media accounts will qualify if it clearly expresses approval, admiration, respect, or reverence toward Allah, provided that any additional posted commentary from Trump does not explicitly contradict that sentiment. Media contained only within reposts or posts quoted by Trump will not qualify.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be public statements from Donald Trump.","Will Trump praise Allah again by May 31? is a political prediction market asking whether Donald Trump will publicly praise Allah between the market’s creation date and May 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. The event resolves to Yes only if Trump makes a qualifying statement that clearly expresses approval, admiration, respect, or reverence for Allah, whether spoken, written, or posted in official social media content. Neutral references or diplomatic wording do not count unless they include a positive evaluation.\n\nThis forecast matters because it sits at the intersection of U.S. politics, geopolitics, and sensitive religious language, with tags including Trump, Iran, Geopolitics, and Iran Ceasefire. For traders, the event prediction is driven by public statements from Trump, which are the resolution source. Current market probability is about 3.65%, indicating traders see a low chance of a qualifying remark before the deadline. As with any prediction market, the odds reflect market sentiment rather than certainty, and the expected outcome can shift if new public comments emerge before the end date.",16334.418159000004,{"id":637,"title":638,"slug":639,"category":8,"subcategory":34,"tags":640,"probability":150,"createdAt":641,"updatedAt":642,"resolutionDate":643,"description":644,"summary":645,"volume1wk":646,"featured":144},"43352","Who will Trump endorse?","who-will-trump-endorse",[34,322,9],"2026-05-30T10:43:17.046Z","2026-05-30T10:33:48.954Z","2026-11-04T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve according to the candidate Donald Trump announces that he will vote for or endorses for the listed election.\n\nIf Donald Trump does not announce an endorsement by the day before the scheduled election at 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be official information from Donald Trump or one of his representatives, or a consensus of credible reporting of Donald Trump's endorsement.","Who will Trump endorse? is a political prediction market centered on whether Donald Trump will publicly announce an endorsement for the listed election and, if so, which candidate he will support. The market resolves based on official information from Trump or his representatives, or on a consensus of credible reporting of his endorsement. If no endorsement is announced by the day before the scheduled election at 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to \"No.\" \n\nThis event matters because a Trump endorsement can shape campaign narratives, media coverage, and voter expectations in a closely watched election cycle. Traders are forecasting the expected outcome by weighing Trump’s statements, campaign signals, and broader market sentiment around the race. The current market probability is 100%, indicating the market is fully priced toward an endorsement outcome being recognized by the contract rules, though that does not guarantee any specific candidate will be named. \n\nThe prediction market is active from September 12, 2025 through November 4, 2026, giving participants a long runway to assess political developments, endorsement timing, and election-day deadlines.",17692.642528,{"id":648,"title":649,"slug":650,"category":8,"subcategory":9,"tags":651,"probability":175,"createdAt":652,"updatedAt":653,"resolutionDate":94,"description":654,"summary":655,"volume1wk":656,"featured":144},"32228","Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms","balance-of-power-2026-midterms",[9,11,12,14,198,15,407,17,228],"2026-05-30T10:42:51.171Z","2026-05-30T10:33:45.769Z","This market will resolve according to the result of the 2026 United States midterm elections.\n\nA party will be considered to have 'control' of the House of Representatives, if they win a majority of voting seats.\n\nA party will be considered to have 'control' of the Senate if they have more than half of the voting Senate members, or half of the voting Senate members and the Vice President.\n\nA candidate's party is determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time the 2026 United States midterm elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican Parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party that they most recently expressed their intent to caucus with at the time the 2026 United States midterm elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.\n\nIf control of the House is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will resolve according to the party affiliation of the first Speaker of the US House who is selected following the 2026 United States midterm elections. \n\nIf control of the Senate is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will resolve according to the party affiliation of the first Majority Leader of the US Senate who is selected following the 2026 United States midterm elections.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called winners of the House and Senate in the 2026 United States midterm elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.\n","Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms is a political prediction market tracking which party will control the U.S. House of Representatives and the Senate after the 2026 United States midterm elections. The outcome matters because congressional control determines the balance of power in Washington and shapes the legislative agenda heading into the second half of the presidential term. In this event prediction, the market resolves based on whether Democrats or Republicans win a majority in the House and whether either party secures control of the Senate, using the resolution rules tied to AP, Fox News, NBC, and, if needed, official certification. The forecast runs through the 2026 midterm election cycle, with the market currently set to resolve after results are finalized by the end date of November 3, 2026. Current market probability stands at 45.5%, giving traders a real-time read on market sentiment and the expected outcome. For search engines, this event is closely tied to U.S. elections, midterms, congressional control, political odds, and election forecasting.",249857.144516,{"id":658,"title":659,"slug":660,"category":8,"subcategory":9,"tags":661,"probability":137,"createdAt":663,"updatedAt":664,"resolutionDate":665,"description":666,"summary":667,"volume1wk":668,"featured":144},"518913","Elon Musk musk # tweets in July 2026?","elon-musk-of-tweets-july-2026",[9,283,662,75],"Rewards Automation 50 4.5 50","2026-05-30T10:43:06.944Z","2026-05-30T10:33:37.556Z","2026-08-01T04:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X during the month of July 2026.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.\n\nReplies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https:\u002F\u002Fx.com\u002Felonmusk\u002Fstatus\u002F1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.\n\nDeleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).\n\nCommunity reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https:\u002F\u002Fxtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking \"Export Data\". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.","Elon Musk musk # tweets in July 2026? is a prediction market on how many times Elon Musk (@elonmusk) will post on X during July 2026. The event asks traders to forecast the total count of qualifying posts, limited to main feed posts, quote posts, and reposts; replies do not count, except for replies that appear on the main feed and are captured by the tracker. Deleted posts can still count if they remain available long enough to be recorded, and community reposts are excluded. The market resolves using the Post Counter at xtracker.polymarket.com, with X used as a secondary source if tracker data fails. This political and culture-linked tweet market matters because Musk’s posting volume is often followed as a signal of his online activity and influence across politics, technology, and social media. The market is active from late May 2026 through the July 2026 resolution window, ending on August 1, 2026. Current market probability is about 5%, indicating low odds for the listed outcome relative to alternative forecasts.",34648.457184,{"id":670,"title":671,"slug":672,"category":8,"subcategory":9,"tags":673,"probability":674,"createdAt":675,"updatedAt":676,"resolutionDate":604,"description":677,"summary":678,"volume1wk":679,"featured":144},"117770","Parties advancing from the California Governor primary?","parties-advancing-from-the-california-governor-primary",[9,12,16,91],24.5,"2026-05-30T10:43:17.765Z","2026-05-30T10:33:36.044Z","The non-partisan primary election for Governor of California is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. The top two candidates in this election by number of votes won will advance to the general election for Governor of California.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the party affiliation of the listed candidates who advance from the primary to the general election for Governor of California. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with a party.\n\nIn case any combination of parties advances that is not listed here, including all scenarios where an independent candidate advances, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nIf no 2026 California gubernatorial primary takes place by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to “Other.”\n\nThis market will resolve based on the results of the primary election for Governor of California as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of California, specifically the Office of the Secretary of State.","“Parties advancing from the California Governor primary?” is a political prediction market tracking which party affiliations will emerge from California’s non-partisan gubernatorial primary. The event focuses on the June 2, 2026 primary election for Governor of California, when the top two vote-getters will advance to the general election. Traders are forecasting the expected outcome based on which parties’ candidates make it through, with any unlisted combination, including an independent advancing, resolving to “Other.”\n\nThis market matters because California’s top-two primary system can shape the general election field well before November and influence broader market sentiment around the governor’s race. The current market probability is 24.5%, giving a snapshot of how participants are pricing the leading forecast at this stage. As a political prediction market, it reflects traders’ odds and event prediction views ahead of the primary deadline.\n\nResolution will depend on credible reporting and, if needed, the official results from the California Secretary of State. If the 2026 California gubernatorial primary does not take place by December 31, 2026, the market resolves to “Other.”",17220.188061,{"id":681,"title":682,"slug":683,"category":8,"subcategory":538,"tags":684,"probability":685,"createdAt":686,"updatedAt":687,"resolutionDate":65,"description":688,"summary":689,"volume1wk":690,"featured":144},"531004","JD Vance out as VP by...?","jd-vance-out-as-vp-by",[538,9,34],1.25,"2026-05-30T10:42:58.378Z","2026-05-30T10:33:33.505Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if JD Vance ceases to be Vice-President of the United States for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn announcement of Vance's resignation\u002Fremoval before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to \"Yes\", regardless of when the announced resignation\u002Fremoval goes into effect.\n\nIf the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be official information from JD Vance and the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.","JD Vance out as VP by...? is a political prediction market asking whether JD Vance will cease to serve as Vice-President of the United States at any point before the market’s end date. The event is framed around official action, resignation, removal, detention, or any other circumstance that permanently or temporarily prevents him from fulfilling the vice-presidential role. If an announcement of resignation or removal is made before the deadline, the market can resolve to “Yes” even if the change takes effect later. The forecast runs from its start date on May 27, 2026, through December 31, 2026, ET, making the timing of any political developments especially important. This market sits within the Politics category and the Trump Cabinet subcategory, with traders watching for shifts in market sentiment tied to the Trump administration and vice-presidential succession risk. Current market probability is about 1.25%, suggesting the expected outcome is strongly leaning toward “No,” though prediction market odds can change quickly as new information emerges. The resolution source is official U.S. government information and JD Vance statements, with credible reporting also allowed if needed.",79658.83255000002,{"id":692,"title":693,"slug":694,"category":8,"subcategory":61,"tags":695,"probability":696,"createdAt":697,"updatedAt":698,"resolutionDate":518,"description":699,"summary":700,"volume1wk":701,"featured":144},"166459","Next Prime Minister of Slovenia","next-prime-minister-of-slovenia",[61,14,12,13,514,9,512],0.15,"2026-05-30T10:43:10.180Z","2026-05-30T10:33:33.089Z","Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Slovenia on March 22, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve to the next individual who is officially elected by the National Assembly (Državni zbor) and sworn in as Prime Minister of Slovenia following the next parliamentary election.\n\nTo count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market.\n\nIf no such Prime Minister is sworn in by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Slovenia; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.","The Next Prime Minister of Slovenia prediction market asks traders to forecast who will be officially elected by Slovenia’s National Assembly and sworn in as prime minister after the country’s parliamentary election scheduled for March 22, 2026. This political event is important because it captures the expected outcome of the next government transition in Slovenia, not just the election result itself. Interim or caretaker leaders do not count for resolution; only the formally sworn-in prime minister will determine the market outcome. If no new prime minister is sworn in by December 31, 2026, the market resolves to \"Other.\" Current market probability stands at about 15%, suggesting relatively low odds for the leading named outcome at this stage, though prediction market sentiment can change as election coverage, coalition negotiations, and official announcements develop. The market uses official Government of Slovenia information as the primary resolution source, with credible reporting also possible if needed. As a World Politics and Global Elections event prediction, this market is closely watched by traders following Slovenia election odds and political forecast signals.",26500.684124999996,{"id":703,"title":704,"slug":705,"category":8,"subcategory":706,"tags":707,"probability":37,"createdAt":711,"updatedAt":712,"resolutionDate":713,"description":714,"summary":715,"volume1wk":716,"featured":144},"16263","Macron out by...?","macron-out-in-2025","France",[706,9,708,61,709,710],"Macron","2025 Predictions","resign","2026-05-30T10:43:03.249Z","2026-05-30T10:33:31.108Z","2026-06-30T12:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Emmanuel Macron ceases to be President of France for any length of time between January 2 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET (inclusive). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf Macron departs from office before the expiry date, the market should resolve immediately.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from the government of France, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.","\"Macron out by...?\" is a political prediction market on whether Emmanuel Macron will cease to be President of France for any length of time during 2025. The event resolves to Yes if Macron leaves office between January 2 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, and No if he remains president through that deadline. If he departs before the end date, the market resolves immediately. The primary resolution source is official information from the French government, supplemented by credible reporting when needed. This event matters because it tracks leadership continuity in France, one of Europe’s most important political systems, and it has attracted attention from traders watching French politics, resignation risk, and broader world events. The current market probability is 0%, indicating that traders assign no active odds to a near-term exit at the time of the latest data. As a forecast, the market reflects sentiment around Macron’s tenure rather than a guarantee of outcome, making it a useful signal for political event prediction and France-specific search queries.",49538.155902,{"id":718,"title":719,"slug":720,"category":8,"subcategory":34,"tags":721,"probability":150,"createdAt":722,"updatedAt":723,"resolutionDate":51,"description":724,"summary":725,"volume1wk":726,"featured":144},"428245","Will Trump sign an executive order on...?","will-trump-sign-an-executive-order-on",[34,344,9,75],"2026-05-30T10:43:25.949Z","2026-05-30T10:33:16.885Z","This market will resolve \"Yes\" if Donald Trump signs an executive order on the specified calendar date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nOnly formal executive orders will qualify; other executive actions will not qualify.\n\nThis market will immediately resolve \"Yes\" if the text of an executive order for the given day is published on the White House page for presidential actions (https:\u002F\u002Fwww.whitehouse.gov\u002Fpresidential-actions\u002F) or the White House press pool. Mere announcements will not qualify.\n\nIf no executive order is published by 12:00 PM ET the day after the listed date of this market, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nIn the case of ambiguity this market may remain open until it is confirmed by the federal register.","\"Will Trump sign an executive order on...?\" is a politics prediction market that asks whether Donald Trump will sign a formal executive order on the specified calendar date, in ET. The market resolves \"Yes\" only if an executive order is published on the White House presidential actions page or in the White House press pool; announcements or other executive actions do not count. If no qualifying order appears by 12:00 PM ET the following day, the forecast resolves to \"No.\" The event runs from April 30, 2026 through May 31, 2026, and it is part of the Trump daily political forecast category. \n\nFor traders and observers of political prediction markets, this event reflects market sentiment around the likelihood of a White House executive action on a given day. The current market probability is 100%, indicating the market is fully pricing in a Yes outcome, though that remains subject to the event’s resolution rules and official confirmation. This listing is relevant for users tracking Trump, executive orders, political odds, and event prediction activity across the Politics category.",10409.011413,{"id":728,"title":729,"slug":730,"category":8,"subcategory":9,"tags":731,"probability":137,"createdAt":734,"updatedAt":735,"resolutionDate":736,"description":737,"summary":738,"volume1wk":739,"featured":144},"101766","South Carolina Governor Republican Primary Winner","south-carolina-governor-republican-primary-winner-784",[9,12,16,132,598,135,732,733],"South Carolina Primary","Rewards 200, 4.5, 50","2026-05-30T10:42:57.101Z","2026-05-30T10:33:06.012Z","2026-06-09T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of South Carolina, scheduled to take place on June 9, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off.\n\nIf no 2026 South Carolina Gubernatorial Republican Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.”\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the South Carolina Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.","South Carolina Governor Republican Primary Winner is a political prediction market tracking who will win the Republican Primary for Governor of South Carolina. The forecast resolves to the overall primary winner, including any potential second round or run-off, with the market scheduled around the June 9, 2026 primary date. If no 2026 South Carolina gubernatorial Republican primary takes place, the market resolves to “Other.” Resolution will rely first on the official results announced by the South Carolina Republican Party, though broad credible consensus may also be considered.\n\nAs a prediction market, it reflects trader expectations about the expected outcome rather than a guaranteed result. Current market probability sits near 5%, indicating a relatively low chance assigned to the referenced outcome at this stage. The event is relevant for election watchers, primary elections coverage, and political forecast analysis, especially for those following South Carolina politics and the Republican Primary. Market sentiment can shift as the election approaches, with odds updating based on campaign developments, polling, and reporting.",95909.17336100004,{"id":741,"title":742,"slug":743,"category":8,"subcategory":9,"tags":744,"probability":745,"createdAt":746,"updatedAt":747,"resolutionDate":604,"description":748,"summary":749,"volume1wk":750,"featured":144},"382767","California Governor Primary Election: First Place","california-governor-primary-election-first-place",[9,16,12,91,600],64.5,"2026-05-30T10:42:59.158Z","2026-05-30T10:33:03.954Z","The non-partisan primary election for Governor of California is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. The top two candidates in this election by number of votes won will advance to the general election for Governor of California.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the most valid votes in this primary election.\n\nThe named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.\n\nIf the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to “Other.”\n\nThis market will resolve based on the results of the primary election for Governor of California as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of California, specifically the Office of the Secretary of State.","California Governor Primary Election: First Place is a political prediction market focused on who will receive the most valid votes in California’s non-partisan gubernatorial primary on June 2, 2026. The market tracks the expected outcome for the first-place finisher, which is important because the top two candidates advance to the general election for Governor of California. If two candidates are tied on valid votes, the market resolves by alphabetical order of the candidates’ last names, and if the result is still unclear, it would default to Other after December 31, 2026. Current market probability stands at 64.5%, indicating traders see a moderately strong chance for the leading candidate to finish first, though the forecast remains subject to election results. Resolution will rely on credible reporting and, if needed, the official results from the California Secretary of State. This event sits at the intersection of politics, primaries, and elections, making it relevant for election watchers following California governor odds, political forecast signals, and prediction market sentiment ahead of the primary.",74516.03623100002,{"id":752,"title":753,"slug":754,"category":8,"subcategory":61,"tags":755,"probability":37,"createdAt":756,"updatedAt":757,"resolutionDate":108,"description":758,"summary":759,"volume1wk":760,"featured":144},"41359","Israeli parliament dissolved by...?","israeli-parliament-dissolved-by-october-31",[61,226,9,225],"2026-05-30T10:42:58.768Z","2026-05-30T10:32:58.869Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the sitting Israeli Knesset (Israel's parliament), as of this market's inception, is dissolved between September 3 and October 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market is official information from the government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.","Israeli parliament dissolved by...? is a political prediction market centered on whether Israel’s sitting Knesset will be dissolved between September 3 and October 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. The forecast asks traders to judge the expected outcome of a specific constitutional and legislative event in Israeli politics, with the market resolving to Yes only if the parliament is formally dissolved within that window. Because dissolution can affect government stability, elections, coalition negotiations, and policy timing, the event carries significance for both domestic politics and wider Middle East watchers. The primary resolution source is official information from the government of Israel, with credible reporting used as a backup. As of the latest market data, the probability is 0%, suggesting market sentiment strongly favors the Knesset remaining intact through the deadline. The event is categorized under Politics, World, and Middle East, making it relevant for users tracking political forecast odds and event prediction trends in Israel.",76976.008345,{"id":762,"title":763,"slug":764,"category":8,"subcategory":61,"tags":765,"probability":767,"createdAt":768,"updatedAt":769,"resolutionDate":65,"description":770,"summary":771,"volume1wk":772,"featured":144},"73223","Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?","friedrich-merz-out-as-chancellor-of-germany-before-2027",[61,9,766],"Germany",23,"2026-05-30T10:43:15.768Z","2026-05-30T10:32:41.031Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if Friedrich Merz ceases to be the Chancellor of Germany for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn announcement of Friedrich Merz's resignation\u002Fremoval before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to \"Yes\", regardless of when the announced resignation\u002Fremoval goes into effect.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the government of Germany, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.","Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027? is a political prediction market on whether Merz will cease to serve as Germany’s chancellor at any point by December 31, 2026. The market resolves to Yes if he resigns, is removed, or otherwise stops holding the office before the deadline; it resolves to No if he remains chancellor through the end of 2026. An announced resignation or removal before the market closes would trigger a Yes resolution even if the change takes effect later. The outcome will be determined using the German government as the primary resolution source, with credible reporting also acceptable. As of the latest data, traders are assigning about 23% probability to Merz being out of office before 2027, indicating market sentiment that the expected outcome is still more likely to be No. This event is relevant for observers of German politics, coalition stability, and broader European political forecasts, making it a closely watched event prediction in the World politics category.",18751.285326000005,{"id":774,"title":775,"slug":776,"category":8,"subcategory":9,"tags":777,"probability":779,"createdAt":780,"updatedAt":781,"resolutionDate":782,"description":783,"summary":784,"volume1wk":785,"featured":144},"97497","Oklahoma Governor Republican Primary Winner","oklahoma-governor-republican-primary-winner",[9,12,16,132,778,135,598],"Oklahoma Primary",11,"2026-05-30T10:43:05.293Z","2026-05-30T10:32:20.055Z","2026-06-16T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Oklahoma, scheduled to take place on June 16, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off.\n\nIf no 2026 Oklahoma Gubernatorial Republican Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.”\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Oklahoma Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.","Oklahoma Governor Republican Primary Winner is a political prediction market tracking who will win the Republican Primary for Governor of Oklahoma. The market is forecasting the overall winner of the primary scheduled for June 16, 2026, including any second round or runoff if one is required. If no 2026 Oklahoma Gubernatorial Republican Primary takes place, the market resolves to “Other.” The official resolution source is the first announcement of results from the Oklahoma Republican Party, although overwhelming credible reporting may also be used. \n\nAs of the latest market data, traders are assigning a 11% probability to the event outcome currently priced in the market, offering a snapshot of market sentiment rather than a guarantee. Interest in the event reflects broader political forecasting around Oklahoma elections, Republican primary dynamics, and gubernatorial contest positioning. For users following election prediction markets, this listing provides a focused event prediction tied to the state’s primary calendar and the expected outcome for Republican voters in the 2026 governor race.",40784.958918,{"id":787,"title":788,"slug":789,"category":8,"subcategory":9,"tags":790,"probability":791,"createdAt":792,"updatedAt":793,"resolutionDate":794,"description":795,"summary":796,"volume1wk":797,"featured":144},"515563","Donald Trump # Truth Social posts May 26 - June 2, 2026?","donald-trump-of-truth-social-posts-may-26-june-2",[9,284,34,283],0.2,"2026-05-30T10:42:59.802Z","2026-05-30T10:31:57.716Z","2026-06-02T16:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve according to the number of times Donald Trump (@realDonaldTrump), posts on Truth Social between May 26, 12:00 PM ET and June 2, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.\n\nReplies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.\n\nDeleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the \"Post Counter\" figure for posts found at https:\u002F\u002Fxtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking \"Export Data\". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, Truth Social itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.","Donald Trump # Truth Social posts May 26 - June 2, 2026? is a political prediction market asking how many times Donald Trump (@realDonaldTrump) will post on Truth Social during the specified window from May 26, 12:00 PM ET to June 2, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. The forecast is based on Trump’s main feed posts, quote posts, and reposts; replies do not count unless they appear on the main feed and are captured by the tracker. Deleted posts can still count if they remain visible long enough to be recorded. This event matters because Trump’s social media activity is closely watched in politics, and traders use the market to gauge expected outcome and market sentiment around his posting frequency. The current market probability is about 20%, indicating a relatively low chance for the listed outcome, though that figure can change as traders adjust odds before the end date. Resolution will rely on the Post Counter at xtracker.polymarket.com, with Truth Social as a backup source if needed.",66311.11008,{"id":799,"title":800,"slug":801,"category":8,"subcategory":538,"tags":802,"probability":808,"createdAt":809,"updatedAt":810,"resolutionDate":108,"description":811,"summary":812,"volume1wk":813,"featured":144},"336745","Who will Trump announce as next Attorney General by June 30?","who-will-trump-announce-as-next-ag",[538,34,803,804,9,805,806,807],"pam bondi","bondi","attorney general","Zeldin","AG",14.5,"2026-05-30T10:43:07.445Z","2026-05-30T10:31:55.610Z","This market will resolve according to the first individual Donald Trump announces as his pick to be United States Attorney General. \n\nAn announcement from Donald Trump or the Trump administration stating their intent to nominate a specific individual for United States Attorney General will suffice to resolve this market, regardless of whether a formal nomination actually occurs.\n\nQualifying announcements must explicitly present the relevant individual as the nominee or future nominee for Attorney General. Announcements of acting or interim appointments, or announcements which merely reveal potential candidates, will not qualify. Media reports, speculation, or other unofficial information will not qualify.\n\nA formal presidential nomination of an individual to be United States Attorney General will also suffice to resolve this market. Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.\n\nIf Donald Trump does not announce his pick for the next United States Attorney General by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"No announcement by June 30\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be official information from Donald Trump and the Trump Administration; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.","Who will Trump announce as next Attorney General by June 30? is a political prediction market tracking Donald Trump’s next move on the U.S. Attorney General role. The market resolves to the first individual Trump or the Trump administration explicitly names as the intended nominee for Attorney General, or to a formal presidential nomination submitted to the U.S. Senate. Announcements of acting or interim appointments, or vague references to possible candidates, do not count. If no qualifying announcement is made by June 30, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to “No announcement by June 30.”\n\nThis event matters because the Attorney General is the top law enforcement official in the United States and a key Trump Cabinet position, so any announcement can shape political market sentiment and expectations around the administration’s direction. Traders are currently pricing in a relatively low probability of a timely announcement, with the market implying about 14.5% odds. Tags and related search terms include Trump Cabinet, attorney general, AG, Pam Bondi, and Zeldin, reflecting the candidates and political context being watched in this forecast.",33875.747834,{"id":815,"title":816,"slug":817,"category":8,"subcategory":9,"tags":818,"probability":408,"createdAt":819,"updatedAt":820,"resolutionDate":604,"description":821,"summary":822,"volume1wk":823,"featured":144},"97502","Who will advance from the California Governor primary?","who-will-advance-from-the-california-governor-primary",[9,12,16,91],"2026-05-30T10:42:57.277Z","2026-05-30T10:31:55.504Z","The non-partisan primary election for Governor of California is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. The top two candidates in this election by number of votes won will advance to the general election for Governor of California.\n\nThis market will resolve to “Yes” If the listed candidate advances from the primary to the general election for Governor of California. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nIf no 2026 California gubernatorial primary takes place by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to “No.”\n\nThis market will resolve based on the results of the primary election for Governor of California as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of California, specifically the Office of the Secretary of State.","Who will advance from the California Governor primary? is a political prediction market focused on the non-partisan California gubernatorial primary scheduled for June 2, 2026. The market forecasts which candidates will finish among the top two vote-getters and move on to the general election for Governor of California. In this type of event prediction, traders are not betting on the winner of the governor’s race itself, but on which contenders will survive the primary stage and remain eligible for the November contest.\n\nThe market resolves to Yes for a listed candidate if that candidate advances from the primary, and No otherwise. If the primary does not take place by December 31, 2026, the market resolves No. Resolution is based on credible reporting, with official California Secretary of State results used if there is any ambiguity.\n\nAs of the latest market data, the implied probability is about 55%, suggesting mixed market sentiment rather than a clear consensus. The event is relevant to election analysts, political traders, and observers tracking California Governor odds and primary election forecasts.",92022.17308599998,{"id":825,"title":826,"slug":827,"category":8,"subcategory":9,"tags":828,"probability":37,"createdAt":830,"updatedAt":831,"resolutionDate":832,"description":833,"summary":834,"volume1wk":835,"featured":144},"59301","India strike on Pakistan by...?","india-strike-on-pakistan-by",[9,829,36,61],"India-Pakistan","2026-05-30T10:42:50.453Z","2026-05-30T10:31:55.163Z","2025-12-31T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if India initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Pakistani territory by October 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purposes of this market, a qualifying \"strike\" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Indian military forces that impact Pakistani territory (e.g., if an Indian missile or drone hits a target within Pakistan’s borders, this market will resolve to \"Yes\").\n\nMissiles or drones that are intercepted before reaching Pakistani territory, as well as surface-to-air missile strikes, will not be sufficient for a \"Yes\" resolution regardless of whether debris lands on Pakistani soil or causes damage.\n\nActions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or any operation conducted by Indian ground forces will not qualify as a strike under this market.\n\nThe resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.","\"India strike on Pakistan by...?\" is a Politics prediction market asking whether India will initiate a qualifying drone, missile, or air strike on Pakistani territory before October 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. The market resolves to Yes only if Indian military forces launch an aerial bomb, drone, cruise missile, or ballistic missile that impacts Pakistani territory; intercepted weapons, surface-to-air strikes, artillery, cyberattacks, or ground operations do not count under the event rules. The forecast matters because it tracks a major India-Pakistan geopolitical risk that could affect regional stability and global market sentiment. The resolution source is a consensus of credible reporting, making this a news-driven event prediction rather than a policy or diplomatic outcome. Current market probability is 0%, suggesting traders are assigning no immediate odds to a qualifying strike at the moment. The event is active in the Politics category and remains relevant for prediction market participants following India-Pakistan tensions, geopolitical escalation, and military action forecasts.",301706.9762119999,{"id":837,"title":838,"slug":839,"category":8,"subcategory":9,"tags":840,"probability":843,"createdAt":844,"updatedAt":845,"resolutionDate":65,"description":846,"summary":847,"volume1wk":848,"featured":144},"143642","US strike on Mexico by...?","us-strike-on-mexico-by",[9,34,103,36,241,841,842],"Mexico Cartel War","mencho",19.5,"2026-05-30T10:42:52.999Z","2026-05-30T10:31:55.137Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Mexico is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purposes of this market, a qualifying \"strike\" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.\n\nA strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.\n\nMissiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a \"Yes\" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage.\n\nActions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.\n\nAny strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.\n\nThis market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date\u002Ftime of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to \"No\" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.","US strike on Mexico by...? is a political prediction market asking whether a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on Mexican territory will be announced or credibly reported by the market’s deadline. The forecast is narrowly defined: a qualifying strike must physically impact land territory within Mexico, including rivers, lakes, or ports, while intercepted missiles, surface-to-air exchanges, artillery fire, naval shelling, ground incursions, and cyberattacks do not count. The event draws on geopolitics, foreign policy, and the broader Mexico cartel war context, with references in the market tags to Trump, Venezuela, and Mencho reflecting the uncertainty around regional escalation. The market opened on 2026-01-04 and runs through 2026-12-31 ET, with a two-day post-deadline window for credible reporting before resolution. Current market probability is about 19.5%, suggesting traders see the odds of a confirmed US strike on Mexico as relatively low, though not negligible. As with any prediction market, sentiment can shift quickly if official statements or credible media reports emerge, and the final outcome will depend on whether the event meets the market’s strict resolution criteria.",172613.23525599996,{"id":850,"title":851,"slug":852,"category":8,"subcategory":9,"tags":853,"probability":137,"createdAt":854,"updatedAt":855,"resolutionDate":336,"description":856,"summary":857,"volume1wk":858,"featured":144},"83730","Gangwon Province Governor Election Winner","gangwon-province-governor-election-winner",[9,12,333,14,13,228],"2026-05-30T10:42:57.799Z","2026-05-30T10:31:54.738Z","The Gangwon Province gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in South Korea on June 3, 2026 to elect the next governor of Gangwon Province. \n\nThis market will resolve according to the candidate that wins this election.\n\nIf the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThis market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the South Korean government, specifically the National Election Commission (https:\u002F\u002Fwww.nec.go.kr\u002F).","Gangwon Province Governor Election Winner is a political prediction market forecasting who will win the gubernatorial election in Gangwon Province, South Korea. The vote is scheduled for June 3, 2026, and the market resolves to the candidate who secures the official result. If the outcome is not known by December 31, 2026, the contract resolves to \"Other.\" This event matters because it reflects the expected outcome of a major South Korean regional election, with traders tracking campaign momentum, local political dynamics, and reporting from credible sources. Current market probability is about 5%, indicating low consensus on any single outcome so far. As with other election markets, sentiment may shift as the deadline approaches and official results become clearer. Resolution is based on consensus reporting, or, if needed, solely on the South Korean National Election Commission. For users following political forecast activity, this market provides a focused event prediction tied to one of South Korea’s key subnational races.",87641.66795399999,{"id":860,"title":861,"slug":862,"category":8,"subcategory":9,"tags":863,"probability":865,"createdAt":866,"updatedAt":867,"resolutionDate":604,"description":868,"summary":869,"volume1wk":870,"featured":144},"97450","New Mexico Governor Republican Primary Winner","new-mexico-governor-republican-primary-winner",[9,12,16,132,864,598,135,600],"New Mexico Primary",75.5,"2026-05-30T10:43:23.047Z","2026-05-30T10:31:54.405Z","This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of New Mexico, scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off.\n\nIf no 2026 New Mexico Gubernatorial Republican Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.”\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the New Mexico Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.","New Mexico Governor Republican Primary Winner is a political prediction market focused on who will win the Republican Primary for Governor of New Mexico. The forecast resolves on the overall primary winner, including any second round or run-off, with the election scheduled for June 2, 2026. If no 2026 Republican gubernatorial primary takes place, the market resolves to “Other.” Resolution will use the first official results announced by the New Mexico Republican Party, although overwhelming credible reporting may also be accepted. As a political forecast, this event draws attention from traders tracking New Mexico Primary dynamics, Governor Primary odds, and broader Republican Primary sentiment. The current market probability is about 75.5%, which suggests traders see a clear expected outcome, though prediction market odds can change as the race develops. This listing is relevant for election watchers, primary elections coverage, and users following event prediction markets for U.S. state politics.",12003.229165,{"id":872,"title":873,"slug":874,"category":8,"subcategory":242,"tags":875,"probability":879,"createdAt":880,"updatedAt":881,"resolutionDate":65,"description":882,"summary":883,"volume1wk":884,"featured":144},"200480","Will Alberta join the US? ","will-alberta-join-the-us",[242,9,34,876,61,877,878,36],"Canada","annex","acquire",4.25,"2026-05-30T10:42:48.411Z","2026-05-30T10:31:53.543Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if it is officially announced that Alberta will come under US sovereignty, or if Alberta officially comes under US sovereignty, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nSovereignty is defined as the transfer of the majority of the territory of Alberta as of February 6, 2026, currently a Canadian province, to being under the formal governance or jurisdiction of the United States, either as a state, territory, or other classification within the US system.\n\nAn official announcement made by the United States and Canada that Alberta will come under US sovereignty, within this market's timeframe, will qualify, even if the actual transfer of sovereignty is yet to occur. Only announcements of official agreements or actions (e.g. a ratified treaty, signed legislation, etc.) will count - mere suggestions, negotiations, or posts on Social Media will not.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the US, Canada, and Alberta, however a consensus of credible reporting confirming that Alberta has come under U.S. sovereignty will also qualify.","Will Alberta join the US? is a political prediction market asking whether Alberta will formally come under U.S. sovereignty by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. The forecast resolves to \"Yes\" only if there is an official announcement or completed transfer placing the Canadian province under U.S. governance or jurisdiction as a state, territory, or another U.S. classification. Mere speculation, negotiations, or social media comments do not count; the market relies on official government action or credible reporting confirming the change. This event matters because it sits at the intersection of U.S.-Canada relations, geopolitics, and broader debates about sovereignty and territorial change. Current market sentiment implies a low-probability outcome, with traders pricing the chance at about 4.25%. The market opened on February 6, 2026, and runs through the end-of-year deadline, giving participants time to react to diplomatic developments, legislative action, or any formal agreement between the United States, Canada, and Alberta. For event prediction and odds tracking, this listing reflects a niche but high-interest political forecast tied to annexation, acquisition, and North American geopolitical risk.",607099.5225150004,{"id":886,"title":887,"slug":888,"category":8,"subcategory":34,"tags":889,"probability":674,"createdAt":890,"updatedAt":891,"resolutionDate":65,"description":892,"summary":893,"volume1wk":894,"featured":144},"73897","Who will leave Trump Administration before 2027?","who-will-leave-trump-administration-before-2027",[34,9],"2026-05-30T10:43:11.532Z","2026-05-30T10:31:53.252Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is announced that that the listed individual will leave the Trump Administration, or otherwise ceases to be a member of administration by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn announcement of the listed individual's resignation\u002Fremoval before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to \"Yes\", regardless of when the announced resignation\u002Fremoval goes into effect.\n\nThe Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels.\n\nThe primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.","Who will leave Trump Administration before 2027? is a political prediction market focused on whether a named official in Donald Trump’s administration will depart the administration before December 31, 2026. The market resolves to “Yes” if the individual is announced as resigning, removed, or otherwise ceases to be part of the Trump Administration by the deadline, even if the departure takes effect later. It covers formally appointed federal roles, including Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, and White House staff announced through official channels. This event matters because personnel turnover in the Trump administration can signal internal shifts in policy, influence, and governance priorities. As of the latest data, traders assign the market about a 24.5% probability to a departure before 2027, reflecting current market sentiment on the expected outcome. The prediction market remains active through the end of 2026, giving traders time to update odds as official announcements and credible reporting emerge. For watchers of political forecast markets, this is a straightforward event prediction tied to administration stability and personnel changes.",23966.852783000002,{"id":896,"title":897,"slug":898,"category":8,"subcategory":9,"tags":899,"probability":37,"createdAt":900,"updatedAt":901,"resolutionDate":902,"description":903,"summary":904,"volume1wk":905,"featured":144},"140711","Another US strike on Venezuela by...?","another-us-strike-on-venezuela-by",[9,36,103,61],"2026-05-30T10:42:48.653Z","2026-05-30T10:31:53.186Z","2026-01-31T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on Venezuelan soil is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purposes of this market, a qualifying \"strike\" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within Venezuela.\n\nA strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of Venezuela counts.\n \nMissiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a \"Yes\" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Venezuelan territory or cause damage.\n\nActions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.\n\nAny strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.\n\nThis market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date\u002Ftime of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to \"No\" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.","“Another US strike on Venezuela by...?” is a politics prediction market asking whether a new US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on Venezuelan soil will be announced or credibly reported before the market deadline. The forecast focuses on whether a qualifying strike physically impacts territory inside Venezuela, including inland waters and ports, but excluding the territorial sea. It does not count intercepted weapons, surface-to-air missile activity, artillery, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks.\n\nThis event matters because it tracks the risk of direct US-Venezuela military escalation and broader geopolitical tensions in the region. Traders in the prediction market are effectively pricing the odds of a confirmed strike based on credible reporting and official claims from the US government or Donald Trump during the timeframe.\n\nThe market opens on January 3, 2026 and is scheduled to resolve by January 31, 2026, with a two-day confirmation window after the resolution time. Current market probability is listed at 0%, indicating very low expected outcome odds at the time of the latest data, though prediction market sentiment can change quickly as new reports emerge.",539150.7995799999,{"id":907,"title":908,"slug":909,"category":8,"subcategory":12,"tags":910,"probability":214,"createdAt":911,"updatedAt":912,"resolutionDate":336,"description":913,"summary":914,"volume1wk":915,"featured":144},"83713","Chungcheongbuk Province Governor Election Winner","chungcheongbuk-province-governor-election-winner",[12,14,333,9,13,228],"2026-05-30T10:43:11.226Z","2026-05-30T10:31:52.753Z","The 2026 Chungcheongbuk Province gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in South Korea on June 3, 2026 to elect the next governor of Chungcheongbuk Province. \n\nThis market will resolve according to the candidate that wins this election.\n\nIf the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThis market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the South Korean government, specifically the National Election Commission (https:\u002F\u002Fwww.nec.go.kr\u002F).","Chungcheongbuk Province Governor Election Winner is a political prediction market on the outcome of the 2026 gubernatorial election in South Korea’s Chungcheongbuk Province. The forecast asks which candidate will win the governor’s race, with the market resolving to the election winner based on credible reporting or, if needed, the official results from South Korea’s National Election Commission. The election is scheduled for June 3, 2026, and the market includes a fallback resolution to \"Other\" if the result is not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. As a South Korea election event in the POLITICS category, it reflects trader expectations around a major regional contest and can be used to track market sentiment, odds, and event prediction activity ahead of the vote. Current market probability is around 6.55%, indicating relatively limited expectation for this outcome compared with other possibilities, though that figure can change as new information and trading volume come in. This listing is relevant for users following global elections, political forecasts, and South Korean election outcomes.",24464.654384999998,{"id":917,"title":918,"slug":919,"category":8,"subcategory":9,"tags":920,"probability":924,"createdAt":925,"updatedAt":926,"resolutionDate":927,"description":928,"summary":929,"volume1wk":930,"featured":144},"478687","Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt?","will-afd-win-an-absolute-majority-of-seats-in-sachsen-anhalt",[9,14,12,921,766,922,923],"German Elections","Saxony-Anhalt","Sachsen-Anhalt",41.5,"2026-05-30T10:43:25.729Z","2026-05-30T10:31:52.714Z","2026-09-06T00:00:00.000Z","Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt are scheduled to take place on September 6, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the party Alternative for Germany (AfD) wins an absolute majority of seats in the state parliament of Sachsen-Anhalt (Landtag) as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf voting in the Sachsen-Anhalt election for the Landtag does not occur or the results are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThis market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.\n\nThis market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official website of the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (https:\u002F\u002Fwww.landtag.sachsen-anhalt.de\u002F).","Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt? is a political prediction market on the 2026 Landtag election in the German state of Saxony-Anhalt, with voting scheduled for September 6, 2026. The forecast asks whether the Alternative for Germany (AfD) will secure more than half of the seats in the state parliament, which would give it an absolute majority on its own. If the election is not held, or if definitive results are still unavailable by January 31, 2027, the market resolves to No. The outcome is determined strictly by seat count, based on credible reporting and, if needed, the official results from the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt. Current market probability places the Yes outcome at about 41.5%, suggesting traders see a meaningful but not dominant chance of an outright AfD majority. As a German elections event prediction, this market is relevant for observers tracking market sentiment around regional politics, parliamentary control, and the broader direction of the AfD in eastern Germany.",10529.398912999999,{"id":932,"title":933,"slug":934,"category":8,"subcategory":198,"tags":935,"probability":937,"createdAt":938,"updatedAt":939,"resolutionDate":94,"description":940,"summary":941,"volume1wk":942,"featured":144},"101106","Another US government shutdown & House Winner 2026?","another-us-government-shutdown-house-winner-2026",[198,14,11,936,196,9,12,17],"Gov Shutdown",81,"2026-05-30T10:42:53.673Z","2026-05-30T10:31:52.186Z","This market will resolve according to the combined outcome of whether there will be another US government shutdown by January 31 (https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket.com\u002Fevent\u002Fwill-there-be-another-us-government-shutdown-by-january-31?) and according to which party will win the House in 2026 (https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket.com\u002Fevent\u002Fwhich-party-will-win-the-house-in-2026?).\n\nThe rules and resolution criteria are as follows:\n\n1. Will there be another US government shutdown by January 31?\nThis market will resolve according to whether the U.S. Office of Personnel Management (OPM) announces another federal government shutdown due to a lapse in appropriations by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.\n\nPartial shutdowns count as shutdowns; announcements of office closures due to holidays or inclement weather do not qualify as a shutdown.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be OPM’s Operating Status page (https:\u002F\u002Fwww.opm.gov\u002Fpolicy-data-oversight\u002Fsnow-dismissal-procedures\u002Fcurrent-status\u002F).\n\n2. Which party will win the House in 2026?\nThis market will resolve according to the party that controls the House of Representatives following the 2026 U.S. House elections scheduled for November 3, 2026.\n\nHouse control is defined as having more than half of the voting members of the U.S. House of Representatives.\n\nIf the outcome of this election is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will remain open until the Speaker of the House is selected following the 2026 U.S. general election, at which point it will resolve to the party the Speaker is affiliated with at the time of their election to that position. If the elected Speaker does not caucus with any listed party this market will resolve “Other”.\n\nDetermination of which party controls the House after the 2026 U.S. House elections will be based on a consensus of credible reporting, or if there is ambiguity, final federal and\u002For state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2026 election results.","Another US government shutdown & House Winner 2026? is a political prediction market that combines two separate forecasts about U.S. governance and elections. Traders are evaluating whether the U.S. Office of Personnel Management will announce another federal government shutdown by January 31, 2026, and which party will control the House of Representatives after the November 3, 2026 midterm elections. The shutdown leg resolves using OPM’s Operating Status page, while the House control outcome depends on official election results and, if needed, the party affiliation of the elected Speaker. This event matters because it links short-term federal budget risk with the broader balance of power in Congress. Market sentiment currently implies an 81% probability for the combined event outcome, though that is not a guarantee. The forecast remains active through the 2026 House election timeline, with the shutdown deadline arriving first and the House control question extending to Election Day and any required post-election certification. For prediction market participants, it is a clear event prediction tied to U.S. politics, Congress, government shutdown risk, and midterm election odds.",156134.572114,{"id":944,"title":945,"slug":946,"category":8,"subcategory":9,"tags":947,"probability":696,"createdAt":949,"updatedAt":950,"resolutionDate":951,"description":952,"summary":953,"volume1wk":954,"featured":144},"100229","Who will close Warner Bros. acquisition?","who-will-close-warner-bros-acquisition",[9,616,617,948],"Warner Bros","2026-05-30T10:43:17.993Z","2026-05-30T10:31:52.068Z","2027-06-30T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve according to the first entity that acquires control of Warner Bros. Discovery's studios and streaming businesses by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. \n\nTransactions that involve only Warner Bros. Discovery's linear television networks, news channels, or other non-studio, non-streaming assets, without also transferring control of its studios and streaming businesses, will not qualify.\n\nAnnouncements of non-finalized arrangements — including, the currently announced Netflix agreement to acquire Warner Bros. Discovery’s studios and streaming businesses — will not qualify.\n\nIf no entity acquires control of Warner Bros. Discovery's studios and streaming businesses by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"None by June 30 2027\". \n\nResolution will be based on by a consensus of reporting.","Who will close Warner Bros. acquisition? is a prediction market focused on which entity, if any, will first acquire control of Warner Bros. Discovery’s studios and streaming businesses. The forecast matters because the market is specifically tied to a completed transfer of those core assets, not to partial deals involving linear television networks, news channels, or other non-studio holdings. Under the rules, only a finalized acquisition that changes control of the studios and streaming businesses will qualify; if no qualifying deal closes by June 30, 2027 at 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to “None by June 30 2027.”\n\nCurrent market sentiment puts the probability at about 15%, suggesting traders see a qualifying close as possible but not yet likely. The event is especially relevant to observers following Warner Bros., Warner Bros. Discovery, and the broader media and tech landscape, including the currently announced but non-finalized Netflix agreement mentioned in the market description. As a prediction market, this event reflects evolving odds and event prediction around a major corporate transaction deadline rather than a confirmed outcome.",17022.474913000005,{"id":956,"title":957,"slug":958,"category":8,"subcategory":9,"tags":959,"probability":202,"createdAt":961,"updatedAt":962,"resolutionDate":140,"description":963,"summary":964,"volume1wk":965,"featured":144},"98211","Georgia Governor Republican Primary Winner","georgia-governor-republican-primary-winner",[9,12,16,132,135,598,960,136],"Georgia Primary","2026-05-30T10:43:18.733Z","2026-05-30T10:31:51.853Z","This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Georgia, scheduled to take place on May 19, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off.\n\nIf no 2026 Georgia Gubernatorial Republican Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.”\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Georgia Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.","Georgia Governor Republican Primary Winner is a political prediction market focused on the outcome of the Republican Primary for Governor of Georgia. The market forecasts which candidate will win the 2026 Georgia gubernatorial Republican primary, including any second round or run-off, and it will resolve to “Other” if no primary takes place. The official resolution source is the Georgia Republican Party’s first announcement of results, though a strong consensus from credible reporting may also be used.\n\nThis event matters because it tracks early market sentiment on the Georgia governor race and offers a forward-looking view of the Republican field ahead of the general election cycle. Traders are pricing the expected outcome based on campaign developments, polling, and primary dynamics, making it a useful event prediction for political observers following elections, primaries, and Georgia politics. The market is scheduled around the May 19, 2026 primary date, with the event currently active and open for forecasting. No live probability is provided in the listing, but the prediction market includes meaningful trading activity and liquidity, which can help shape odds and reveal how traders assess the race.",16275.41406,{"id":967,"title":968,"slug":969,"category":8,"subcategory":9,"tags":970,"probability":696,"createdAt":972,"updatedAt":973,"resolutionDate":51,"description":974,"summary":975,"volume1wk":976,"featured":144},"452161","Next Prime Minister of Romania?","next-prime-minister-of-romania-732",[9,59,971,228,14,12,370],"Bolojat","2026-05-30T10:42:49.190Z","2026-05-30T10:31:51.468Z","This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Romania by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.\n\nTo count for resolution, the individual must be formally appointed by the President of Romania and receive a vote of confidence from Parliament, resulting in the official formation of a new government. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister who does not receive a parliamentary vote of confidence will not count toward the resolution of this market.\n\nIf no such Prime Minister takes office by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Romania; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.","Next Prime Minister of Romania? is a political prediction market forecasting who will next officially assume the office of Prime Minister of Romania by December 31, 2027. The event resolves only when an individual is formally appointed by the President of Romania, wins a vote of confidence in Parliament, and the new government is officially formed; interim or caretaker prime ministers do not count. If no qualifying prime minister takes office by the deadline, the market resolves to “Other.”\n\nThis event matters because Romania’s premiership can shift quickly in response to coalition politics, parliamentary support, and government stability. Traders in this prediction market are effectively pricing the expected outcome of Romania’s next government formation, with market sentiment reflecting which figures are most likely to secure both presidential appointment and parliamentary backing. Current market probability places the outcome at about 15%, indicating the market is assigning relatively low odds to the leading consensus outcome at this time.\n\nThe market opened on May 5, 2026 and remains active through the forecast period, with official Government of Romania information serving as the primary resolution source, supplemented by credible reporting when needed.",474219.69380199997,{"id":978,"title":979,"slug":980,"category":8,"subcategory":103,"tags":981,"probability":982,"createdAt":983,"updatedAt":984,"resolutionDate":108,"description":985,"summary":986,"volume1wk":987,"featured":144},"140846","US forces enter Venezuela again by...?","us-forces-in-venezuela-again-by",[103,34,9,322,36,61],19.4,"2026-05-30T10:42:49.766Z","2026-05-30T10:31:50.847Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Venezuela at any point between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.\n\nMilitary special operation forces will qualify; however, intelligence operatives will not count. \n\nUS military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Venezuela to qualify. Entering Venezuela's maritime or aerial territory will not count.\n\nMilitary contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Venezuela for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.\n\nThe resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.","US forces enter Venezuela again by...? is a political prediction market on whether active U.S. military personnel will physically enter Venezuelan territory before the market’s deadline of 11:59 PM ET on June 30, 2026. The event is narrowly defined: only U.S. military personnel entering Venezuela’s land territory count, while entry by air or sea does not. Intelligence operatives are excluded, and military contractors, advisors, or officials traveling for diplomatic reasons do not qualify. Resolution will be based on a consensus of credible reporting.\n\nThis forecast matters because any verified U.S. military presence in Venezuela would be a significant geopolitical development with potential implications for U.S.-Venezuela relations, regional security, and broader political sentiment. As of the latest market data, traders assign about a 19.4% probability to a “Yes” outcome, suggesting the expected outcome remains a “No” unless new reporting changes market sentiment. The event sits in the Politics category, with strong relevance to Venezuela, Trump, geopolitics, and the Trump presidency, making it a closely watched event prediction for traders tracking foreign policy risk.",371353.836364,{"id":989,"title":990,"slug":991,"category":8,"subcategory":391,"tags":992,"probability":137,"createdAt":993,"updatedAt":994,"resolutionDate":398,"description":995,"summary":996,"volume1wk":997,"featured":144},"246152","Turnout in Texas Senate Republican Primary Runoff","turnout-in-texas-senate-republican-primary-runoff",[391,9,394,12,393,16,11,90],"2026-05-30T10:43:21.810Z","2026-05-30T10:31:50.826Z","The Texas Senate Republican primary runoff election is scheduled for May 26, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the total vote count in the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff election (the race’s total canvass votes).\n\nIf the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nIf the results of the election aren’t known by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.  \n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Texas, such as official statewide results published by the Texas Secretary of State (https:\u002F\u002Fwww.sos.state.tx.us\u002Findex.shtml); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.","Turnout in Texas Senate Republican Primary Runoff is a political prediction market focused on the total vote count in the Texas Republican Senate primary runoff election. The market asks traders to forecast how many canvass votes are reported in the runoff, rather than who wins the race. It is tied to the Texas Senate contest and references key Republican figures and primary dynamics in Texas, including Paxton and Cornyn, making it relevant to broader election and turnout analysis.\n\nThe runoff was scheduled for May 26, 2026, and the market is set to resolve using official statewide results from the State of Texas, such as data published by the Texas Secretary of State. If the final vote total lands exactly between two brackets, the higher range bracket will be used. If results are still unavailable by November 30, 2026, the market resolves to the lowest range bracket.\n\nCurrent market probability is about 5%, indicating low expected odds for the lower-probability outcome being priced. As an event prediction, this listing reflects market sentiment around turnout levels in a Texas Senate Republican primary runoff and how participation may shape the final canvass count.",13080.791656999998,{"id":999,"title":1000,"slug":1001,"category":8,"subcategory":9,"tags":1002,"probability":37,"createdAt":1004,"updatedAt":1005,"resolutionDate":108,"description":1006,"summary":1007,"volume1wk":1008,"featured":144},"128933","Will Tim Walz resign by...?","will-tim-walz-resign-by",[9,34,1003],"Minnesota Unrest","2026-05-30T10:42:49.722Z","2026-05-30T10:31:49.748Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Tim Walz announces he has resigned or will resign as Governor of Minnesota by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nIf it becomes impossible for Tim Walz to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to \"No.\"\n\nFor this market to resolve to \"Yes,\" it is only necessary that Tim Walz announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government or the government of Minnesota; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.","\"Will Tim Walz resign by...?\" is a political prediction market asking whether Tim Walz will announce that he has resigned, or will resign, as Governor of Minnesota by the listed deadline. The market resolves to Yes only if he makes a resignation announcement by the cutoff; if no such announcement occurs, it resolves to No. The rules also state that if resignation becomes impossible for reasons such as removal from office by other means, the market will resolve to No. For resolution, the primary sources are official information from the U.S. federal government or the government of Minnesota, with credible reporting used as backup.\n\nThis event matters because it tracks political stability and leadership continuity in Minnesota, with traders pricing the expected outcome based on public statements, official developments, and broader market sentiment. As a political forecast, it sits within the Politics category and has attracted measurable attention, reflected in recent volume and open interest. The current market probability is 0%, indicating no active expectation of a resignation announcement at this time. The event runs through June 30, 2026 ET, giving traders a defined window for event prediction and odds to adjust as news develops.",373149.4092409999,{"id":1010,"title":1011,"slug":1012,"category":8,"subcategory":226,"tags":1013,"probability":1015,"createdAt":1016,"updatedAt":1017,"resolutionDate":713,"description":1018,"summary":1019,"volume1wk":1020,"featured":144},"330194","Will a new country join the Abraham Accords by June 30?","will-a-new-country-join-the-abraham-accords-by-june-30",[226,9,1014,225],"Gaza",16.5,"2026-05-30T10:43:23.248Z","2026-05-30T10:31:47.264Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if any country not already a part of the Abraham Accords formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. Such a signing will qualify regardless of whether a country had an established diplomatic relationship with Israel predating this event; their becoming a signatory of the Abraham Accords qualifies as normalizing relations under the framework of that agreement.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, Somaliland will count as a country.\n\nCountries already part of the Abraham Accords as of June 26, 2025—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.\n\nThe resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.","Will a new country join the Abraham Accords by June 30? is a political prediction market focused on whether any country not already in the Abraham Accords formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the accords by the June 30, 2026 deadline. The market resolves to Yes only if there is an official, publicly acknowledged signing by both governments that is clearly tied to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. Countries already in the agreement as of June 26, 2025, including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan, do not count. Somaliland is explicitly treated as a country for resolution purposes. In the Israel and Middle East category, the event reflects broader diplomatic developments tied to Gaza, regional security, and normalization efforts. Current market probability is about 16.5%, suggesting traders see a relatively low but plausible chance of a new signatory before the end date. Resolution will rely primarily on official government statements, though credible reporting may be used if needed. This event prediction captures market sentiment around Middle East diplomacy and the expected outcome of ongoing normalization talks.",11972.422768999997,{"id":1022,"title":1023,"slug":1024,"category":8,"subcategory":12,"tags":1025,"probability":1027,"createdAt":1028,"updatedAt":1029,"resolutionDate":604,"description":1030,"summary":1031,"volume1wk":1032,"featured":144},"531425","California Governor Primary Election: Los Angeles County Winner","california-governor-primary-election-los-angeles-county-winner",[12,9,16,1026,11,91,600],"California Primary",85.5,"2026-05-30T10:43:19.504Z","2026-05-30T10:31:43.899Z","The non-partisan primary election for Governor of California is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. The top two candidates in this election by number of votes won will advance to the general election for Governor of California.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the most valid votes from Los Angeles County in this primary election.\n\nThe named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.\n\nIf the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to “Other.”\n\nThis market will resolve based on the results of the primary election for Governor of California as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of California, specifically the Office of the Secretary of State.","California Governor Primary Election: Los Angeles County Winner is a political prediction market focused on which candidate will receive the most valid votes in Los Angeles County in California’s non-partisan gubernatorial primary. The election is scheduled for June 2, 2026, with market resolution tied to the candidate who finishes first in the county vote count for this primary election. The top two statewide candidates will advance to the general election, making county-level performance a useful indicator of broader campaign strength and voter turnout. Traders are forecasting the expected outcome based on official results from the California Secretary of State if there is any ambiguity. Current market sentiment gives the leading candidate about an 85.5% probability, suggesting the market expects a clear winner, though the prediction remains uncertain until the vote is finalized. If the results are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, the market will resolve to Other. This event sits in the Elections and California Primary categories and is relevant for tracking California Governor odds, primary election forecasts, and political probability trends.",15207.419028,{"id":1034,"title":1035,"slug":1036,"category":8,"subcategory":34,"tags":1037,"probability":37,"createdAt":1038,"updatedAt":1039,"resolutionDate":1040,"description":1041,"summary":1042,"volume1wk":1043,"featured":144},"146072","Will Trump meet with Delcy Rodríguez by...?","will-trump-meet-with-delcy-rodrguez-by-march-31",[34,9,103,36],"2026-05-30T10:43:19.901Z","2026-05-30T10:31:43.165Z","2026-03-31T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Donald Trump meets with Delcy Rodríguez by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nAn exchange of words, handshake, direct conversation, or other clear personal interaction between the named individuals will qualify as a meeting. Merely standing in proximity, making eye contact, or being present in the same room or event without direct interaction will not qualify.\n\nA meeting is defined as any encounter where both listed individual and Trump are present and interact with each other in person.\n\nThe resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.\n","Will Trump meet with Delcy Rodríguez by...? is a political prediction market tracking whether Donald Trump will have a direct in-person meeting with Venezuelan politician Delcy Rodríguez before the deadline of March 31, 11:59 PM ET. The event resolves to Yes only if credible reporting confirms a clear personal interaction between the two, such as a handshake, conversation, or other direct meeting; simply being in the same room is not enough. This makes the market a focused forecast on U.S.-Venezuela political contacts and broader geopolitical signaling. As of the latest market data, the probability is 0%, indicating that traders currently see no expected outcome for a meeting before the cutoff, though prediction market odds can change quickly if new news emerges. The event began on January 6 and remains active through the end date, giving market participants a defined timeframe for updating sentiment based on developments in politics, Trump-related coverage, and Venezuela diplomacy.",14998.029141,{"id":1045,"title":1046,"slug":1047,"category":8,"subcategory":90,"tags":1048,"probability":1015,"createdAt":1052,"updatedAt":1053,"resolutionDate":65,"description":1054,"summary":1055,"volume1wk":1056,"featured":144},"514175","Who will Trump announce as next Director of National Intelligence?","who-will-trump-announce-as-next-director-of-national-intelligence",[90,9,34,1049,1050,538,1051],"Tulsi Gabbard","DNI","nominate","2026-05-30T10:43:15.637Z","2026-05-30T10:31:42.451Z","This market will resolve according to the first individual Donald Trump announces as his pick to be the next Director of National Intelligence.\n\nAn announcement from Donald Trump or the Trump administration stating their intent to nominate a specific individual for Director of National Intelligence will suffice to resolve this market, regardless of whether a formal nomination actually occurs.\n\nQualifying announcements must explicitly present the relevant individual as the nominee or future nominee for Director of National Intelligence. Announcements of acting or interim appointments, or announcements which merely reveal potential candidates, will not qualify. \nMedia reports, speculation, or other unofficial information will not qualify.\n\nA formal presidential nomination of an individual to be Director of National Intelligence will also suffice to resolve this market. Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.\n\nIf Donald Trump does not announce his pick for the next Director of National Intelligence by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No announcement by December 31”.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be official information from Donald Trump and the Trump administration; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.","\"Who will Trump announce as next Director of National Intelligence?\" is a political prediction market asking which individual Donald Trump will first publicly name as his pick for Director of National Intelligence. The event focuses on the first official announcement from Trump or the Trump administration that explicitly presents someone as the nominee or future nominee for DNI; a formal presidential nomination to the U.S. Senate also qualifies. Media speculation, interim appointments, or general discussion of possible candidates will not resolve the market. This forecast matters because the Director of National Intelligence is a key role in overseeing the U.S. intelligence community and shaping national security policy. The market is currently pricing the expected outcome at about 16.5% probability for the listed option, reflecting trader sentiment rather than a certainty. The prediction window runs through December 31, 2026, and if no qualifying announcement is made by then, the market resolves to \"No announcement by December 31.\"",18852.766127,{"id":1058,"title":1059,"slug":1060,"category":8,"subcategory":1003,"tags":1061,"probability":395,"createdAt":1062,"updatedAt":1063,"resolutionDate":65,"description":1064,"summary":1065,"volume1wk":1066,"featured":144},"145985","Insurrection Act invoked by...?","insurrection-act-invoked-by",[1003,34,9],"2026-05-30T10:42:57.580Z","2026-05-30T10:31:41.158Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Donald Trump officially invokes the Insurrection Act of 1807 by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purposes of this market, \"invoke\" means that the President formally announces the use of the Insurrection Act as legal authority for deploying active-duty U.S. military forces or federalizing the National Guard in response to civil disorder, insurrection, or rebellion.\n\nThe resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.\n","\"Insurrection Act invoked by...?\" is a political prediction market asking whether Donald Trump will officially invoke the Insurrection Act of 1807 by the listed deadline of 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026. The market resolves to Yes only if Trump formally announces the act as legal authority for deploying active-duty U.S. military forces or federalizing the National Guard in response to civil disorder, insurrection, or rebellion; otherwise it resolves to No. This event sits in the Politics category under the Minnesota Unrest subcategory, reflecting the broader debate over federal response options and unrest-related authority. As a prediction market, it is tracking trader sentiment on a specific constitutional and political outcome, with current implied probability near 1.85%, suggesting the expected outcome is still overwhelmingly No. Market participants are effectively pricing the odds that an official invocation will occur before the end-date deadline. The resolution will rely on a consensus of credible reporting, making accurate public announcements and official statements the key signals for this event prediction.",88893.51216399996,{"id":1068,"title":1069,"slug":1070,"category":8,"subcategory":9,"tags":1071,"probability":37,"createdAt":1072,"updatedAt":1073,"resolutionDate":65,"description":1074,"summary":1075,"volume1wk":1076,"featured":144},"57727","Lecornu out as French PM by...?","lecornu-out-as-french-pm-by-381",[9,61,706],"2026-05-30T10:43:03.722Z","2026-05-30T10:31:40.072Z","On September 9, French President Emmanuel Macron named Sébastien Lecornu as the new French Prime Minister. He resigned on October 6 after his cabinet faced severe opposition. On October 10, President Emmanuel Macron reappointed him as Prime Minister, tasking him with forming a new government.\n\nThis market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Sébastien Lecornu is no longer serving as Prime Minister of France for any length of time between October 10 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nAn announcement of Sébastien Lecornu's resignation\u002Fremoval before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to \"Yes\", regardless of when the announced resignation\u002Fremoval goes into effect.\n\nThis market's resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.","Lecornu out as French PM by...? is a political prediction market asking whether Sébastien Lecornu will stop serving as Prime Minister of France for any period between October 10 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. The event focuses on the stability of Emmanuel Macron’s government after Lecornu was first named prime minister on September 9, resigned on October 6 following intense opposition to his cabinet, and was then reappointed on October 10 to form a new government. In plain terms, traders are forecasting whether Lecornu will again leave office before the market deadline, based on credible reporting and any resignation or removal announcement made before expiration. As a France-focused politics event, it reflects broader market sentiment around Macron’s ability to maintain a functioning cabinet amid parliamentary and public pressure. The current market probability is not provided in the data, but the active forecast remains relevant for traders following French political developments, event prediction, and government stability in the World\u002FPolitics category.",47502.915319,{"id":1078,"title":1079,"slug":1080,"category":8,"subcategory":9,"tags":1081,"probability":1083,"createdAt":1084,"updatedAt":1085,"resolutionDate":65,"description":1086,"summary":1087,"volume1wk":1088,"featured":144},"85704","Who will announce Presidential run before 2027?","who-will-announce-presidential-run-before-2027",[9,74,1082,12],"President",11.5,"2026-05-30T10:43:26.866Z","2026-05-30T10:31:39.655Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual officially announces that they are running for U.S. President in the 2028 United States presidential election by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn announcement by the listed individual  will be sufficient to trigger a \"Yes\" resolution, regardless of whether they actually filed a nomination to run, or whether they actually file a nomination to run in the future.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by the listed individual (ex: via speech, social media, etc.), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.","Who will announce Presidential run before 2027? is a political prediction market focused on whether a listed individual will formally announce a campaign for U.S. President in the 2028 United States presidential election by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The market resolves to Yes if the person makes an official announcement through a statement, speech, social media post, or other credible source, even if no formal nomination filing follows. It resolves to No if no qualifying announcement occurs before the deadline.\n\nThis event matters because presidential run announcements can reshape the early field, influence election narratives, and shift market sentiment around the 2028 race. Traders are forecasting which public figures may enter the contest before the cutoff date, making the event a useful signal for political odds and event prediction. The current market probability is about 11.5%, suggesting traders see the expected outcome as relatively unlikely, though not impossible.\n\nWith a start date of November 20, 2025 and an end date of December 31, 2026, the market provides a long window for new political developments, official statements, and credible reporting to affect the forecast.",9834.004505,{"id":1090,"title":1091,"slug":1092,"category":8,"subcategory":367,"tags":1093,"probability":37,"createdAt":1095,"updatedAt":1096,"resolutionDate":40,"description":1097,"summary":1098,"volume1wk":1099,"featured":144},"259052","Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by...?","mojtaba-khamenei-leaves-iran-by",[367,9,32,36,464,1094,465],"supreme leader","2026-05-30T10:42:50.583Z","2026-05-30T10:31:39.341Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if it is confirmed that Mojtaba Khamenei has left Iran for any length of time by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nIn cases where Mojtaba Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to \"Yes\". If Mojtaba Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to \"Yes\".\n\nIf it is not confirmed by the resolution date that Mojtaba Khamenei left Iran, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.","\"Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by...?\" is a political prediction market asking whether Mojtaba Khamenei, a prominent figure in Iran’s ruling establishment, will be confirmed to have left Iran for any length of time by the resolution deadline. The event focuses on a simple binary forecast: traders are pricing the odds of a \"Yes\" outcome if credible reporting confirms he exited Iranian territory or airspace in a way that meets the market rules, and \"No\" if no such confirmation appears by 11:59 PM ET on April 30, 2026. This market sits in the Politics category under Khamenei and is closely tied to broader questions about Iran, the supreme leader’s circle, and regime stability. Because resolution depends on a consensus of credible reporting, market sentiment will likely track news coverage, official statements, and geopolitical developments rather than speculation alone. The current market probability is 0%, indicating no active consensus on a confirmed departure at this time.",291497.35707200004,{"id":1101,"title":1102,"slug":1103,"category":8,"subcategory":1104,"tags":1105,"probability":37,"createdAt":1106,"updatedAt":1107,"resolutionDate":902,"description":1108,"summary":1109,"volume1wk":1110,"featured":144},"140376","María Corina Machado enters Venezuela by...?","will-mara-corina-machado-enter-venezuela-by-january-31","Trump-Machado",[1104,9,34,103],"2026-05-30T10:42:48.978Z","2026-05-30T10:31:38.038Z","If María Corina Machado visits Venezuela between market creation and Janaury 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Yes\". Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purpose of this market, a \"visit\" is defined as María Corina Machado physically entering the terrestrial territory of Venezuela. Whether or not María Corina Machado enters Venezuelan airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.","María Corina Machado enters Venezuela by...? is a political prediction market asking whether the Venezuelan opposition leader will physically enter the terrestrial territory of Venezuela during the defined window, from market creation through January 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. A visit only counts if Machado enters Venezuelan land territory; flying over Venezuelan airspace or traveling through maritime territory does not satisfy the resolution criteria. The market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting, making news coverage the key source for traders tracking the outcome. This event matters because Machado is a prominent figure in Venezuelan politics, and any confirmed return to the country could carry significant political and symbolic implications. As of the latest market data, the probability is 0%, reflecting current market sentiment and the odds implied by active traders, though that forecast can change if conditions or reporting shift. The market sits in the Politics category under the Trump-Machado subcategory and is searchable under terms such as political forecast, political probability, and event prediction.",491321.45731600013,{"id":1112,"title":1113,"slug":1114,"category":8,"subcategory":1104,"tags":1115,"probability":1117,"createdAt":1118,"updatedAt":1119,"resolutionDate":65,"description":1120,"summary":1121,"volume1wk":1122,"featured":144},"143443","Venezuela leader end of 2026?","venezuela-leader-end-of-2026",[1104,103,34,9,36,1116,407],"maduro",5.45,"2026-05-30T10:42:48.124Z","2026-05-30T10:31:37.168Z","This market will resolve to the individual who officially holds the position of the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026 at 12 PM ET.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, \"officially holds\" refers to the individual that was formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as the head of state of Venezuela or otherwise confirmed by official government information as being the head of state of Venezuela. \n\nIf the Venezuelan government does not clearly state who is the head of state, the market will resolve to the individual who is listed as the Head of State by the UN (see: https:\u002F\u002Fwww.un.org\u002Fdgacm\u002Fen\u002Fcontent\u002Fprotocol\u002Fhshgnfa).  \n\nIn the event that more than one official head of state is listed by the Venezuelan  government, this market will resolve to the individual who is listed as having primary status. If no distinction is made, the market will resolve to the individual who first assumed the position. \n\nIf no individual holds the position this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. \n\nThe following do NOT constitute \"officially holding\" the role: nominated, announced, or designated as the head of state of Venezuela but appointment not yet effective; appointed with an effective date after Dec 31, 2026; previously served as the head of state of Venezuela but term has expired, resigned, or been terminated before Dec 31, 2026; serving as the head of state of Venezuela in a consultant, contractor, or unofficial capacity; named as successor or heir apparent to the head of state of Venezuela but not yet appointed; or holding a different role with oversight of the head of state of Venezuela but not the specified position itself.\n\nThe primary resolution source will be official information from the UN recognized government of Venezuela. If the Government of Venezuela does not clearly state who is the head of state, information from the UN and a consensus of credible reporting may be used. \n\nNote: this market is mutually exclusive. \n","Venezuela leader end of 2026? is a political prediction market asking who will officially hold the position of head of state of Venezuela on Dec. 31, 2026 at 12 PM ET. The market will resolve based on the individual formally appointed, confirmed if needed, and sworn in, or otherwise recognized by official government information. If Venezuela does not clearly identify a head of state, the UN-listed head of state will be used instead. If no individual holds the office, the outcome resolves to “No Head of State.”\n\nThis event matters because Venezuela’s leadership has major implications for domestic politics, regional geopolitics, and U.S.-Venezuela relations, especially given the Trump-Machado and Maduro references in the market tags. Traders are effectively forecasting the expected outcome for Venezuela’s top office over the course of 2026, with the event starting on Jan. 4, 2026 and ending at year-end.\n\nCurrent market probability is about 5.45%, suggesting traders view this outcome as a low-probability forecast at present. As with other political prediction markets, odds can shift materially as official announcements, recognition disputes, and broader market sentiment change over time.",641635.4726760001,{"id":1124,"title":1125,"slug":1126,"category":8,"subcategory":9,"tags":1127,"probability":1128,"createdAt":1129,"updatedAt":1130,"resolutionDate":65,"description":1131,"summary":1132,"volume1wk":1133,"featured":144},"148292","Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?","will-the-us-acquire-any-part-of-greenland-in-2026",[9,242,34,36,243],15.5,"2026-05-30T10:42:59.631Z","2026-05-30T10:31:24.276Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States acquires control of any land territory that is part of Greenland by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nOnly the transfer of sovereignty, or the acquisition of primary or exclusive jurisdiction or control qualifies.\n\n1. Transfer of Sovereignty: This will qualify if a binding agreement or legal instrument results in a defined area of Greenland coming under the formal sovereignty of the U.S. (e.g., incorporated as a U.S. state, territory, possession, or other U.S. political classification), even if the effective date occurs after the market deadline.\n\n2. Acquisition of Primary or Exclusive Jurisdiction or Control: This will qualify if a binding agreement or legal instrument establishes a defined area in Greenland in which the U.S. has primary or exclusive jurisdiction or control over the territory, such that the ordinary legal authority of Denmark and Greenland do not apply,except by U.S. permission. Such agreements or instruments will qualify even if the effective date occurs after the market deadline. \n\n3. Use of Force: If the U.S. acquires primary or exclusive jurisdiction or control over a defined area of Greenland through force, this will also qualify. \n\nAn announcement will qualify only if it is accompanied by or consists of a binding agreement or legal instrument  (e.g., enacted legislation, a signed treaty, the signed text of an agreement, or an executive action implementing such an agreement) that unambiguously creates a transfer of sovereignty, or primary or exclusive jurisdiction or control,  even if this transfer or acquisition takes effect after the market deadline. \n\nNon-binding statements, negotiations, proposals, frameworks, or MOUs will not alone qualify. Basing rights, access agreements, SOFA-type arrangements, COFA-type arrangements, commercial concessions, or other permissions to use land (including leases) will not alone qualify. Any qualifying U.S. jurisdiction or control  in Greenland that existed at market creation will not count as new qualifying control.\n\nExamples of qualifying events include but are not limited to treaty or piece of legislation that makes any portion of Greenland a U.S. territory or possession, even if the handover date for such territory or possession is later); or, a Guantánamo-style arrangement establishing a defined zone in Greenland under exclusive or primary U.S. jurisdiction and control, where Denmark and Greenland’s ordinary legal authority does not apply except by U.S. permission.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States, Denmark, and Greenland; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.\n","Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? is a political prediction market focused on whether the United States will obtain control of any land territory in Greenland before December 31, 2026. The market resolves “Yes” only if there is a binding transfer of sovereignty or a formal legal instrument granting the U.S. primary or exclusive jurisdiction or control over a defined area; non-binding talks, proposals, leases, or access agreements do not qualify. This makes the event a clear forecast about geopolitics, Greenland, Denmark, and U.S. territorial policy rather than a broad headline about diplomacy.\n\nThe outcome matters because any qualifying change would require official action from the U.S., Denmark, or Greenland, or credible reporting confirming such an arrangement. Market sentiment currently assigns about a 15.5% probability to a “Yes” outcome, suggesting traders see the event as possible but still unlikely. With the market active from January 2026 through year-end 2026, the prediction is closely tied to any treaty, legislation, or executive action that could alter sovereignty or jurisdiction in Greenland.",68945.72577199999,{"id":1135,"title":1136,"slug":1137,"category":8,"subcategory":9,"tags":1138,"probability":37,"createdAt":1139,"updatedAt":1140,"resolutionDate":65,"description":1141,"summary":1142,"volume1wk":1143,"featured":144},"145253","Delcy Rodríguez out as leader of Venezuela by...?","delcy-rodrguez-out-as-leader-of-venezuela-by",[9,61,36,1116,103],"2026-05-30T10:43:00.609Z","2026-05-30T10:31:19.074Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if Delcy Rodríguez ceases to be Acting President\u002Fleader of Venezuela for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn announcement of Delcy Rodríguez's resignation\u002Fremoval before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to \"Yes\", regardless of when the announced resignation\u002Fremoval goes into effect.\n\nIf the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be official information from Delcy Rodríguez and the government of Venezuela; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.","Delcy Rodríguez out as leader of Venezuela by...? is a political prediction market asking whether Delcy Rodríguez will cease to serve as Acting President or leader of Venezuela at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026. The forecast resolves to Yes if she resigns, is removed, detained, or otherwise permanently prevented from carrying out the duties of the role during the market window. It also resolves to Yes if an official resignation or removal is announced before the deadline, even if the change takes effect later. The market draws on official information from Delcy Rodríguez and the government of Venezuela, with credible reporting also considered for resolution. This event matters because leadership changes in Venezuela can signal shifts in domestic power, succession dynamics, and broader geopolitical stability. As a political forecast, it is being watched by traders for changes in market sentiment around Venezuela and the Maduro-aligned leadership structure. At the time of the latest update, the market probability is 0%, indicating no current expectation of a leadership exit, though odds can change quickly as new developments emerge.",60381.46331700002,{"id":1145,"title":1146,"slug":1147,"category":8,"subcategory":1116,"tags":1148,"probability":1149,"createdAt":1150,"updatedAt":1151,"resolutionDate":902,"description":1152,"summary":1153,"volume1wk":1154,"featured":144},"140724","Nicolás Maduro released from custody by...?","nicols-maduro-released-from-custody-by",[1116,9,103,36,34],12.5,"2026-05-30T10:42:46.095Z","2026-05-30T10:31:14.458Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Nicolás Maduro is released from custody by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf Nicolás Maduro is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to \"Yes\".\n\nIf Nicolás Maduro is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to \"Yes\".\n\nTransporting Nicolás Maduro to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to \"Yes\". \n\nTemporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.","Nicolás Maduro released from custody by...? is a political prediction market tracking whether Nicolás Maduro will be released from custody by the listed deadline of 11:59 PM ET on January 31, 2026. The event asks traders to forecast a specific legal and geopolitical outcome: whether Maduro leaves state custody, including release on house arrest, parole, bond, or another condition that no longer keeps him in correctional custody. A transfer to another prison, court, or hospital within the custody system does not count as a release, and temporary outings for testimony also would not qualify. This makes the market dependent on official government or corrections sources, though credible reporting may also be used in resolution. Current market probability is about 12.5%, indicating low but non-zero expectations that the outcome will occur. The market sits at the intersection of politics, Venezuela, geopolitics, and broader event prediction activity, with odds shaped by evolving market sentiment and any new developments involving Maduro’s detention status.",1505952.477360002,{"id":1156,"title":1157,"slug":1158,"category":8,"subcategory":9,"tags":1159,"probability":1160,"createdAt":1161,"updatedAt":1162,"resolutionDate":108,"description":1163,"summary":1164,"volume1wk":1165,"featured":144},"496260","Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by...?","ex-cuba-leader-raul-castro-in-us-custody-by",[9,104,34,36,298],13.2,"2026-05-30T10:42:50.273Z","2026-05-30T10:31:07.561Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if Raul Castro is taken into U.S. government custody at any point by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nRaul Castro will be considered taken into U.S. government custody if U.S. government personnel (including military, CIA, personnel of another agency, or contractors acting under direct U.S. government authority) physically detain, arrest, capture, or otherwise assume physical custodial control of Raul Castro, regardless of location or duration.\n\nVisits, interactions with U.S. government personnel, or Raul Castro’s presence in U.S. spaces (including vessels, bases, facilities, or meetings) in a voluntary, non-detained capacity will not qualify. A voluntary surrender to U.S. personnel in which Raul Castro submits to U.S. custody, however, will qualify.\n\nCustody that is carried out by non-U.S. entities (including allied or partner forces) will not qualify unless U.S. personnel are physically present and themselves assume custodial control of Raul Castro, or unless a subsequent transfer into U.S. custody occurs.\n\nThe resolution sources for this market will be official information from the U.S. government and a consensus of credible reporting.","“Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by...?” is a political prediction market asking whether Raul Castro will be taken into U.S. government custody by June 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. The forecast is straightforward: traders are pricing the chance that U.S. personnel, including military, intelligence, or other authorized agents acting under direct U.S. authority, physically detain, arrest, capture, or otherwise assume custody of Castro. A voluntary surrender to U.S. custody would also count, while brief contact, travel, or presence in U.S. facilities without detention would not. This event sits at the intersection of Cuba, U.S. politics, and geopolitics, with tags referencing Trump and Diaz-Canel, which helps explain the market’s broader diplomatic and security context. As of the latest market data, the implied probability is about 13.2%, suggesting traders view the expected outcome as unlikely but not impossible. Resolution will rely on official U.S. government information and credible reporting, making this a clear event prediction for anyone tracking political forecast markets and custody-related odds.",316271.5227699999,{"id":1167,"title":1168,"slug":1169,"category":8,"subcategory":1170,"tags":1171,"probability":150,"createdAt":1173,"updatedAt":1174,"resolutionDate":108,"description":1175,"summary":1176,"volume1wk":1177,"featured":144},"196767","Who will testify to congress about Epstein?","who-will-testify-to-congress-about-epstein","clinton",[1170,9,186,1172],"Jeffrey Epstein","2026-05-30T10:43:09.785Z","2026-05-30T10:31:05.086Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the listed individual provides testimony about Jeffrey Epstein before either chamber of the United States Congress (House of Representatives or Senate), or any of their official committees or subcommittees, by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nQualifying testimony may be either live or recorded, in-person or remote, and closed or open to the public.\n\nA primary focus of the testimony must be information related to Jeffrey Epstein, including but not limited to the listed individuals’ relationship with Epstein, their appearance in Epstein-related files released by the federal government, their involvement in previous Epstein investigations or criminal proceedings, or their general knowledge of Epstein and his life. Limited references to Epstein in an otherwise unrelated congressional testimony will not qualify.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.","Who will testify to congress about Epstein? is a political prediction market tracking whether any listed individual will provide testimony about Jeffrey Epstein before the U.S. Congress, including the House or Senate and their committees or subcommittees, by June 30, 2026. The market resolves to Yes only if the testimony is directly focused on Epstein-related matters, such as the person’s relationship with Epstein, appearances in federal Epstein files, prior investigations or criminal proceedings, or broader knowledge of Epstein and his life. Limited mentions in unrelated congressional testimony do not qualify. As an event prediction in the Politics category, the market reflects trader expectations around whether credible congressional testimony will emerge within the deadline. Current market probability is shown at 100%, indicating very strong market sentiment, though the outcome is not guaranteed. Because resolution is based on a consensus of credible reporting, the forecast depends on public testimony that clearly meets the market’s criteria before the June 30, 2026 cutoff.",26875.162820999998,{"id":1179,"title":1180,"slug":1181,"category":8,"subcategory":1182,"tags":1183,"probability":1186,"createdAt":1187,"updatedAt":1188,"resolutionDate":108,"description":1189,"summary":1190,"volume1wk":1191,"featured":144},"435295","Ruben Rocha out as Governor of Sinaloa by...?","ruben-rocha-out-as-governor-of-sinaloa-by-may-31","Extradite",[1182,9,1184,1185],"cartel","Mexico",3.45,"2026-05-30T10:43:08.390Z","2026-05-30T10:31:04.844Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if Ruben Rocha Moya ceases to be the Governor of Sinaloa for any period of time between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn announcement of Rocha Moya’s resignation\u002Fremoval before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to \"Yes\", regardless of when the announced resignation\u002Fremoval goes into effect.\n\nIf the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be official information from Ruben Rocha Moya and the governments of Mexico and Sinaloa; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.\n","Ruben Rocha out as Governor of Sinaloa by...? is a political prediction market asking whether Ruben Rocha Moya will cease to serve as governor of Sinaloa at any point between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The forecast resolves to Yes if Rocha Moya resigns, is removed, detained, or otherwise permanently prevented from carrying out the duties of governor within that timeframe; it also resolves to Yes if an official resignation or removal is announced before the deadline, even if it takes effect later. Otherwise, the expected outcome is No. As a politics and extradite-related market focused on Mexico and Sinaloa, it reflects trader attention on regional political stability, legal risk, and potential official action involving a sitting state governor. Current market probability is about 3.45%, indicating a low but nonzero expectation of removal by the deadline. For prediction market participants, the key variables are official statements from Ruben Rocha Moya, the governments of Mexico and Sinaloa, and credible reporting through the end date. The event serves as a live political forecast rather than a certainty, with odds shaped by evolving market sentiment and new developments.",30871.703405000007,{"id":1193,"title":1194,"body":1195,"description":2518,"extension":2519,"meta":2520,"navigation":25,"path":2521,"seo":2522,"stem":2523,"__hash__":2524},"content\u002F_includes\u002Fcategory_politics.md","Political Prediction Markets",{"type":1196,"value":1197,"toc":2493},"minimark",[1198,1203,1211,1233,1243,1254,1257,1276,1282,1285,1289,1296,1303,1320,1326,1331,1387,1393,1396,1423,1425,1429,1435,1438,1492,1512,1514,1518,1524,1527,1543,1547,1593,1596,1613,1615,1619,1630,1633,1636,1661,1667,1669,1673,1679,1682,1702,1706,1751,1757,1759,1763,1769,1772,1799,1802,1846,1849,1863,1865,1869,1875,1878,1889,1893,1934,1937,1951,1953,1957,1960,1964,1967,1978,1981,1989,1991,1995,1998,2009,2011,2019,2021,2025,2028,2039,2041,2049,2051,2055,2058,2069,2071,2079,2081,2085,2088,2099,2101,2109,2111,2115,2118,2189,2199,2201,2205,2208,2211,2228,2231,2265,2271,2273,2277,2280,2283,2288,2298,2302,2311,2317,2319,2323,2326,2330,2333,2337,2340,2344,2347,2351,2354,2356,2360,2363,2366,2383,2389,2391,2395,2399,2402,2404,2408,2411,2413,2417,2420,2436,2438,2442,2448,2451,2454,2456,2460,2466,2473,2487],[1199,1200,1202],"h1",{"id":1201},"political-prediction-markets-global-political-forecasts","Political Prediction Markets & Global Political Forecasts",[1204,1205,1206],"p",{},[1207,1208],"img",{"alt":1209,"src":1210},"Political prediction markets forecasting illustration","\u002Fimages\u002Fpolitics.png",[1204,1212,1213,1214,1218,1219,1232],{},"Political events shape the global economy, financial markets, international relations, and public policy. Understanding ",[1215,1216,1217],"strong",{},"political probabilities","—such as ",[1215,1220,1221,1226,1227,1231],{},[1222,1223,1225],"a",{"href":1224},"\u002F","election outcomes",", ",[1222,1228,1230],{"href":1229},"\u002Fpolitics","geopolitical conflicts",", and leadership changes","—has become essential for analysts, investors, journalists, and researchers.",[1204,1234,1235,1238,1239,1242],{},[1215,1236,1237],{},"Political prediction markets"," transform collective intelligence into measurable probabilities for future political\nevents. By aggregating information from thousands of participants, these markets produce ",[1215,1240,1241],{},"real-time forecasts for\nelections, geopolitical crises, economic policy decisions, and leadership transitions",".",[1204,1244,1245,1246,1249,1250,1253],{},"Unlike traditional polling or expert commentary, ",[1222,1247,1248],{"href":1224},"prediction markets"," use ",[1215,1251,1252],{},"market incentives and probability pricing"," to estimate the likelihood of real-world outcomes.",[1204,1255,1256],{},"These systems now forecast events including:",[1258,1259,1260,1264,1267,1270,1273],"ul",{},[1261,1262,1263],"li",{},"Election winners",[1261,1265,1266],{},"Government leadership changes",[1261,1268,1269],{},"Geopolitical conflicts",[1261,1271,1272],{},"Global economic crises",[1261,1274,1275],{},"International policy decisions",[1204,1277,1278,1279,1242],{},"Prediction markets therefore represent one of the most powerful tools available for ",[1215,1280,1281],{},"global political forecasting and\nprobability analysis",[1283,1284],"hr",{},[1199,1286,1288],{"id":1287},"what-are-political-prediction-markets","What Are Political Prediction Markets?",[1204,1290,1291,1292,1295],{},"A ",[1215,1293,1294],{},"political prediction market"," is a marketplace where participants trade contracts representing the probability that\na political event will occur.",[1204,1297,1298,1299,1302],{},"Each contract represents a ",[1215,1300,1301],{},"future political outcome",", such as:",[1258,1304,1305,1308,1311,1314,1317],{},[1261,1306,1307],{},"Who will win the next election",[1261,1309,1310],{},"Whether a geopolitical conflict will occur",[1261,1312,1313],{},"Which political leader will take office",[1261,1315,1316],{},"Whether a government will collapse",[1261,1318,1319],{},"Whether a global economic crisis will happen",[1204,1321,1322,1323,1242],{},"The market price of each contract reflects the ",[1215,1324,1325],{},"collective estimate of probability",[1327,1328,1330],"h2",{"id":1329},"example-election-market","Example: Election Market",[1332,1333,1334,1350],"table",{},[1335,1336,1337],"thead",{},[1338,1339,1340,1344,1347],"tr",{},[1341,1342,1343],"th",{},"Event",[1341,1345,1346],{},"Market Price",[1341,1348,1349],{},"Implied Probability",[1351,1352,1353,1365,1376],"tbody",{},[1338,1354,1355,1359,1362],{},[1356,1357,1358],"td",{},"Candidate A wins election",[1356,1360,1361],{},"$0.62",[1356,1363,1364],{},"62%",[1338,1366,1367,1370,1373],{},[1356,1368,1369],{},"Candidate B wins election",[1356,1371,1372],{},"$0.34",[1356,1374,1375],{},"34%",[1338,1377,1378,1381,1384],{},[1356,1379,1380],{},"Other candidates",[1356,1382,1383],{},"$0.04",[1356,1385,1386],{},"4%",[1204,1388,1389,1390,1242],{},"This price discovery mechanism converts ",[1215,1391,1392],{},"crowd knowledge into political probability forecasts",[1204,1394,1395],{},"Prediction markets are widely used to estimate:",[1258,1397,1398,1403,1408,1413,1418],{},[1261,1399,1400],{},[1215,1401,1402],{},"Election odds",[1261,1404,1405],{},[1215,1406,1407],{},"Election outcome probabilities",[1261,1409,1410],{},[1215,1411,1412],{},"Next prime minister predictions",[1261,1414,1415],{},[1215,1416,1417],{},"Political crisis probabilities",[1261,1419,1420],{},[1215,1421,1422],{},"War risk forecasts",[1283,1424],{},[1199,1426,1428],{"id":1427},"why-prediction-markets-are-effective-for-political-forecasting","Why Prediction Markets Are Effective for Political Forecasting",[1204,1430,1431,1432,1242],{},"Traditional political forecasting relies on polls, expert panels, or statistical models. Prediction markets enhance\nthese methods by incorporating ",[1215,1433,1434],{},"real financial incentives and distributed information networks",[1204,1436,1437],{},"Key advantages include:",[1332,1439,1440,1450],{},[1335,1441,1442],{},[1338,1443,1444,1447],{},[1341,1445,1446],{},"Feature",[1341,1448,1449],{},"Benefit",[1351,1451,1452,1460,1468,1476,1484],{},[1338,1453,1454,1457],{},[1356,1455,1456],{},"Collective intelligence",[1356,1458,1459],{},"Aggregates information from thousands of participants",[1338,1461,1462,1465],{},[1356,1463,1464],{},"Real-time probability updates",[1356,1466,1467],{},"Markets react instantly to breaking news",[1338,1469,1470,1473],{},[1356,1471,1472],{},"Incentive alignment",[1356,1474,1475],{},"Traders profit from accurate predictions",[1338,1477,1478,1481],{},[1356,1479,1480],{},"Transparency",[1356,1482,1483],{},"Market prices clearly represent probabilities",[1338,1485,1486,1489],{},[1356,1487,1488],{},"Continuous forecasting",[1356,1490,1491],{},"Predictions update dynamically",[1204,1493,1494,1495,1498,1499,1505,1506,1242],{},"Because of these properties, prediction markets often produce ",[1215,1496,1497],{},"more accurate forecasts than traditional polling alone",". You can also see how these techniques are applied in ",[1215,1500,1501],{},[1222,1502,1504],{"href":1503},"\u002Fsports","sports prediction markets"," or ",[1215,1507,1508],{},[1222,1509,1511],{"href":1510},"\u002Fcrypto","cryptocurrency price forecasting",[1283,1513],{},[1199,1515,1517],{"id":1516},"election-prediction-markets","Election Prediction Markets",[1204,1519,1520,1521,1242],{},"One of the most widely used applications of prediction markets is ",[1215,1522,1523],{},"election forecasting",[1204,1525,1526],{},"Markets exist for elections around the world, allowing analysts to estimate:",[1258,1528,1529,1531,1534,1537,1540],{},[1261,1530,1307],{},[1261,1532,1533],{},"Political party victory probabilities",[1261,1535,1536],{},"Vote share forecasts",[1261,1538,1539],{},"Coalition formation probabilities",[1261,1541,1542],{},"Leadership succession odds",[1327,1544,1546],{"id":1545},"election-forecast-example","Election Forecast Example",[1332,1548,1549,1559],{},[1335,1550,1551],{},[1338,1552,1553,1556],{},[1341,1554,1555],{},"Candidate",[1341,1557,1558],{},"Market Probability",[1351,1560,1561,1569,1577,1585],{},[1338,1562,1563,1566],{},[1356,1564,1565],{},"Candidate A",[1356,1567,1568],{},"48%",[1338,1570,1571,1574],{},[1356,1572,1573],{},"Candidate B",[1356,1575,1576],{},"41%",[1338,1578,1579,1582],{},[1356,1580,1581],{},"Candidate C",[1356,1583,1584],{},"8%",[1338,1586,1587,1590],{},[1356,1588,1589],{},"Other",[1356,1591,1592],{},"3%",[1204,1594,1595],{},"These probabilities continuously update as new information becomes available, including:",[1258,1597,1598,1601,1604,1607,1610],{},[1261,1599,1600],{},"polling data",[1261,1602,1603],{},"campaign developments",[1261,1605,1606],{},"debates",[1261,1608,1609],{},"economic indicators",[1261,1611,1612],{},"geopolitical events",[1283,1614],{},[1199,1616,1618],{"id":1617},"who-will-win-the-next-election","Who Will Win the Next Election?",[1204,1620,1621,1622,1625,1626,1629],{},"Search interest for ",[1215,1623,1624],{},"\"who will win the next election\""," and ",[1215,1627,1628],{},"\"election probability forecast\""," has grown dramatically\nin recent years.",[1204,1631,1632],{},"Prediction markets provide a data-driven way to analyze these questions.",[1204,1634,1635],{},"Typical election prediction metrics include:",[1258,1637,1638,1642,1647,1652,1656],{},[1261,1639,1640],{},[1215,1641,1402],{},[1261,1643,1644],{},[1215,1645,1646],{},"Election probability models",[1261,1648,1649],{},[1215,1650,1651],{},"Political betting odds",[1261,1653,1654],{},[1215,1655,1407],{},[1261,1657,1658],{},[1215,1659,1660],{},"Leadership change odds",[1204,1662,1663,1664,1242],{},"These indicators allow analysts to estimate ",[1215,1665,1666],{},"the probability of election victory long before voting occurs",[1283,1668],{},[1199,1670,1672],{"id":1671},"global-political-event-forecasting","Global Political Event Forecasting",[1204,1674,1675,1676,1242],{},"Political prediction markets extend beyond elections to forecast ",[1215,1677,1678],{},"major geopolitical events",[1204,1680,1681],{},"Common market topics include:",[1258,1683,1684,1687,1690,1693,1696,1699],{},[1261,1685,1686],{},"geopolitical crises",[1261,1688,1689],{},"military conflicts",[1261,1691,1692],{},"international treaties",[1261,1694,1695],{},"government collapses",[1261,1697,1698],{},"sanctions and trade wars",[1261,1700,1701],{},"global economic disruptions",[1327,1703,1705],{"id":1704},"geopolitical-event-forecast-example","Geopolitical Event Forecast Example",[1332,1707,1708,1717],{},[1335,1709,1710],{},[1338,1711,1712,1714],{},[1341,1713,1343],{},[1341,1715,1716],{},"Estimated Probability",[1351,1718,1719,1727,1735,1743],{},[1338,1720,1721,1724],{},[1356,1722,1723],{},"Major geopolitical crisis",[1356,1725,1726],{},"28%",[1338,1728,1729,1732],{},[1356,1730,1731],{},"Global recession",[1356,1733,1734],{},"35%",[1338,1736,1737,1740],{},[1356,1738,1739],{},"Government collapse in major economy",[1356,1741,1742],{},"11%",[1338,1744,1745,1748],{},[1356,1746,1747],{},"Military conflict escalation",[1356,1749,1750],{},"19%",[1204,1752,1753,1754,1242],{},"These markets allow analysts to evaluate ",[1215,1755,1756],{},"global political risk probabilities",[1283,1758],{},[1199,1760,1762],{"id":1761},"war-probability-geopolitical-risk-forecasts","War Probability & Geopolitical Risk Forecasts",[1204,1764,1765,1766,1242],{},"Another rapidly growing category in political prediction markets involves ",[1215,1767,1768],{},"conflict probability forecasting",[1204,1770,1771],{},"Markets frequently analyze:",[1258,1773,1774,1779,1784,1789,1794],{},[1261,1775,1776],{},[1215,1777,1778],{},"China–Taiwan conflict probability",[1261,1780,1781],{},[1215,1782,1783],{},"North Korea war risk",[1261,1785,1786],{},[1215,1787,1788],{},"global conflict probability",[1261,1790,1791],{},[1215,1792,1793],{},"probability of world war",[1261,1795,1796],{},[1215,1797,1798],{},"military escalation risk",[1204,1800,1801],{},"Example forecast table:",[1332,1803,1804,1813],{},[1335,1805,1806],{},[1338,1807,1808,1811],{},[1341,1809,1810],{},"Scenario",[1341,1812,1716],{},[1351,1814,1815,1823,1831,1839],{},[1338,1816,1817,1820],{},[1356,1818,1819],{},"Regional conflict escalation",[1356,1821,1822],{},"23%",[1338,1824,1825,1828],{},[1356,1826,1827],{},"Major international military conflict",[1356,1829,1830],{},"14%",[1338,1832,1833,1836],{},[1356,1834,1835],{},"Nuclear conflict scenario",[1356,1837,1838],{},"\u003C2%",[1338,1840,1841,1844],{},[1356,1842,1843],{},"Large-scale geopolitical crisis",[1356,1845,1750],{},[1204,1847,1848],{},"These probability estimates are often monitored by:",[1258,1850,1851,1854,1857,1860],{},[1261,1852,1853],{},"geopolitical analysts",[1261,1855,1856],{},"hedge funds",[1261,1858,1859],{},"government researchers",[1261,1861,1862],{},"global risk consultancies",[1283,1864],{},[1199,1866,1868],{"id":1867},"political-leadership-prediction","Political Leadership Prediction",[1204,1870,1871,1872,1242],{},"Prediction markets also forecast ",[1215,1873,1874],{},"future political leaders",[1204,1876,1877],{},"These markets answer questions such as:",[1258,1879,1880,1883,1886],{},[1261,1881,1882],{},"Who will be the next prime minister?",[1261,1884,1885],{},"Who will become the next president?",[1261,1887,1888],{},"Which party will control government?",[1327,1890,1892],{"id":1891},"leadership-prediction-example","Leadership Prediction Example",[1332,1894,1895,1904],{},[1335,1896,1897],{},[1338,1898,1899,1901],{},[1341,1900,1555],{},[1341,1902,1903],{},"Probability",[1351,1905,1906,1913,1920,1927],{},[1338,1907,1908,1910],{},[1356,1909,1565],{},[1356,1911,1912],{},"52%",[1338,1914,1915,1917],{},[1356,1916,1573],{},[1356,1918,1919],{},"37%",[1338,1921,1922,1924],{},[1356,1923,1581],{},[1356,1925,1926],{},"9%",[1338,1928,1929,1931],{},[1356,1930,1589],{},[1356,1932,1933],{},"2%",[1204,1935,1936],{},"Leadership prediction markets are especially active during:",[1258,1938,1939,1942,1945,1948],{},[1261,1940,1941],{},"election cycles",[1261,1943,1944],{},"leadership contests",[1261,1946,1947],{},"coalition negotiations",[1261,1949,1950],{},"political crises",[1283,1952],{},[1199,1954,1956],{"id":1955},"political-prediction-markets-by-country","Political Prediction Markets by Country",[1204,1958,1959],{},"Political forecasting markets exist for many national elections and leadership transitions.",[1327,1961,1963],{"id":1962},"australia-political-prediction-markets","Australia Political Prediction Markets",[1204,1965,1966],{},"Forecasting topics include:",[1258,1968,1969,1972,1975],{},[1261,1970,1971],{},"Australia election odds",[1261,1973,1974],{},"next Australia election forecast",[1261,1976,1977],{},"Australian prime minister prediction",[1204,1979,1980],{},"More analysis:",[1258,1982,1983],{},[1261,1984,1985],{},[1222,1986,1988],{"href":1987},"\u002Fprediction-markets-australia","Prediction Markets in Australia",[1283,1990],{},[1327,1992,1994],{"id":1993},"japan-political-forecasts","Japan Political Forecasts",[1204,1996,1997],{},"Japan markets are frequently analyzed:",[1258,1999,2000,2003,2006],{},[1261,2001,2002],{},"Japan election probability",[1261,2004,2005],{},"next Japan prime minister odds",[1261,2007,2008],{},"Japan government leadership prediction",[1204,2010,1980],{},[1258,2012,2013],{},[1261,2014,2015],{},[1222,2016,2018],{"href":2017},"\u002Fprediction-markets-japan","Prediction Markets in Japan",[1283,2020],{},[1327,2022,2024],{"id":2023},"south-korea-political-predictions","South Korea Political Predictions",[1204,2026,2027],{},"South Korea prediction markets often track:",[1258,2029,2030,2033,2036],{},[1261,2031,2032],{},"South Korea election odds",[1261,2034,2035],{},"Korean presidential election predictions",[1261,2037,2038],{},"leadership change forecasts",[1204,2040,1980],{},[1258,2042,2043],{},[1261,2044,2045],{},[1222,2046,2048],{"href":2047},"\u002Fprediction-markets-korea","Prediction Markets in Korea",[1283,2050],{},[1327,2052,2054],{"id":2053},"indonesia-election-forecasts","Indonesia Election Forecasts",[1204,2056,2057],{},"Indonesia's rapidly growing forecasting community analyzes:",[1258,2059,2060,2063,2066],{},[1261,2061,2062],{},"Indonesia president election odds",[1261,2064,2065],{},"Indonesia election probability",[1261,2067,2068],{},"political forecast Indonesia",[1204,2070,1980],{},[1258,2072,2073],{},[1261,2074,2075],{},[1222,2076,2078],{"href":2077},"\u002Fprediction-markets-indonesia","Prediction Markets in Indonesia",[1283,2080],{},[1327,2082,2084],{"id":2083},"new-zealand-election-predictions","New Zealand Election Predictions",[1204,2086,2087],{},"New Zealand prediction markets track:",[1258,2089,2090,2093,2096],{},[1261,2091,2092],{},"NZ election odds",[1261,2094,2095],{},"New Zealand prime minister prediction",[1261,2097,2098],{},"election probability forecasts",[1204,2100,1980],{},[1258,2102,2103],{},[1261,2104,2105],{},[1222,2106,2108],{"href":2107},"\u002Fprediction-markets-new-zealand","Prediction Markets in New Zealand",[1283,2110],{},[1199,2112,2114],{"id":2113},"political-prediction-markets-vs-polling","Political Prediction Markets vs Polling",[1204,2116,2117],{},"Prediction markets and polling both estimate political outcomes, but they function differently.",[1332,2119,2120,2132],{},[1335,2121,2122],{},[1338,2123,2124,2126,2129],{},[1341,2125,1446],{},[1341,2127,2128],{},"Prediction Markets",[1341,2130,2131],{},"Opinion Polls",[1351,2133,2134,2145,2156,2167,2178],{},[1338,2135,2136,2139,2142],{},[1356,2137,2138],{},"Forecast method",[1356,2140,2141],{},"Market pricing",[1356,2143,2144],{},"Survey responses",[1338,2146,2147,2150,2153],{},[1356,2148,2149],{},"Updates",[1356,2151,2152],{},"Continuous",[1356,2154,2155],{},"Periodic",[1338,2157,2158,2161,2164],{},[1356,2159,2160],{},"Incentives",[1356,2162,2163],{},"Financial",[1356,2165,2166],{},"None",[1338,2168,2169,2172,2175],{},[1356,2170,2171],{},"Bias correction",[1356,2173,2174],{},"Market trading",[1356,2176,2177],{},"Sampling methods",[1338,2179,2180,2183,2186],{},[1356,2181,2182],{},"Real-time information",[1356,2184,2185],{},"High",[1356,2187,2188],{},"Limited",[1204,2190,2191,2192,2195,2196,1242],{},"Because traders incorporate ",[1215,2193,2194],{},"new information instantly",", prediction markets often adjust ",[1215,2197,2198],{},"faster than polls",[1283,2200],{},[1199,2202,2204],{"id":2203},"relationship-between-politics-economics-and-global-markets","Relationship Between Politics, Economics, and Global Markets",[1204,2206,2207],{},"Political events strongly influence financial and economic outcomes.",[1204,2209,2210],{},"Prediction markets therefore analyze interactions between:",[1258,2212,2213,2216,2219,2222,2225],{},[1261,2214,2215],{},"political elections",[1261,2217,2218],{},"central bank decisions",[1261,2220,2221],{},"interest rate changes",[1261,2223,2224],{},"inflation forecasts",[1261,2226,2227],{},"global recession probabilities",[1204,2229,2230],{},"Example economic forecast:",[1332,2232,2233,2241],{},[1335,2234,2235],{},[1338,2236,2237,2239],{},[1341,2238,1343],{},[1341,2240,1716],{},[1351,2242,2243,2249,2257],{},[1338,2244,2245,2247],{},[1356,2246,1731],{},[1356,2248,1375],{},[1338,2250,2251,2254],{},[1356,2252,2253],{},"Interest rate cuts",[1356,2255,2256],{},"57%",[1338,2258,2259,2262],{},[1356,2260,2261],{},"Economic crisis",[1356,2263,2264],{},"18%",[1204,2266,2267,2268,1242],{},"Political forecasting therefore intersects with ",[1215,2269,2270],{},"financial forecasting and macroeconomic analysis",[1283,2272],{},[1199,2274,2276],{"id":2275},"political-forecasting-and-other-prediction-market-categories","Political Forecasting and Other Prediction Market Categories",[1204,2278,2279],{},"Political prediction markets are part of a broader ecosystem of event forecasting platforms.",[1204,2281,2282],{},"Related categories include:",[2284,2285,2287],"h3",{"id":2286},"sports-prediction-markets","Sports Prediction Markets",[1204,2289,2290,2291,2294,2295],{},"Forecast outcomes such as ",[1215,2292,2293],{},"World Cup winners and tournament probabilities",".\nSee: ",[1222,2296,2297],{"href":1503},"Sports",[2284,2299,2301],{"id":2300},"cryptocurrency-prediction-markets","Cryptocurrency Prediction Markets",[1204,2303,2304,2305,2294,2308],{},"Estimate ",[1215,2306,2307],{},"Bitcoin price probabilities, crypto bull runs, and market cycles",[1222,2309,2310],{"href":1510},"Crypto Prediction Markets",[1204,2312,2313,2314,1242],{},"Together these forecasting categories create a ",[1215,2315,2316],{},"global prediction ecosystem covering politics, economics, sports, and\ntechnology events",[1283,2318],{},[1199,2320,2322],{"id":2321},"strategies-for-analyzing-political-prediction-markets","Strategies for Analyzing Political Prediction Markets",[1204,2324,2325],{},"Professional forecasters often combine several analytical approaches:",[2284,2327,2329],{"id":2328},"data-analysis","Data Analysis",[1204,2331,2332],{},"Using polling data, economic indicators, and historical election results.",[2284,2334,2336],{"id":2335},"market-sentiment","Market Sentiment",[1204,2338,2339],{},"Analyzing how probability prices change after major political news.",[2284,2341,2343],{"id":2342},"scenario-modeling","Scenario Modeling",[1204,2345,2346],{},"Estimating probabilities for multiple geopolitical outcomes.",[2284,2348,2350],{"id":2349},"information-advantage","Information Advantage",[1204,2352,2353],{},"Identifying events before markets adjust.",[1283,2355],{},[1199,2357,2359],{"id":2358},"the-future-of-political-prediction-markets","The Future of Political Prediction Markets",[1204,2361,2362],{},"Political forecasting platforms are evolving rapidly as new technologies emerge.",[1204,2364,2365],{},"Future developments may include:",[1258,2367,2368,2371,2374,2377,2380],{},[1261,2369,2370],{},"AI-driven geopolitical prediction models",[1261,2372,2373],{},"blockchain-based prediction markets",[1261,2375,2376],{},"real-time political risk analytics",[1261,2378,2379],{},"global forecasting networks",[1261,2381,2382],{},"decentralized political forecasting platforms",[1204,2384,2385,2386,1242],{},"As data availability increases, prediction markets are expected to become ",[1215,2387,2388],{},"a central tool for analyzing political and\ngeopolitical risk worldwide",[1283,2390],{},[1199,2392,2394],{"id":2393},"frequently-asked-questions","Frequently Asked Questions",[1327,2396,2398],{"id":2397},"what-is-a-political-prediction-market","What is a political prediction market?",[1204,2400,2401],{},"A political prediction market is a platform where users trade contracts representing the probability of political events\nsuch as elections, leadership changes, or geopolitical conflicts.",[1283,2403],{},[1327,2405,2407],{"id":2406},"are-prediction-markets-accurate-for-elections","Are prediction markets accurate for elections?",[1204,2409,2410],{},"Many studies suggest prediction markets can outperform polls because they aggregate information from many participants\nand update probabilities continuously.",[1283,2412],{},[1327,2414,2416],{"id":2415},"what-types-of-political-events-can-be-predicted","What types of political events can be predicted?",[1204,2418,2419],{},"Prediction markets analyze many types of events, including:",[1258,2421,2422,2425,2427,2430,2433],{},[1261,2423,2424],{},"elections",[1261,2426,1230],{},[1261,2428,2429],{},"leadership changes",[1261,2431,2432],{},"economic policy decisions",[1261,2434,2435],{},"government stability",[1283,2437],{},[1327,2439,2441],{"id":2440},"how-are-election-probabilities-calculated","How are election probabilities calculated?",[1204,2443,2444,2445,1242],{},"Election probabilities are derived from the ",[1215,2446,2447],{},"market price of contracts representing each possible outcome",[1204,2449,2450],{},"Example:",[1204,2452,2453],{},"Market price: $0.65\nImplied probability: 65%",[1283,2455],{},[1199,2457,2459],{"id":2458},"conclusion","Conclusion",[1204,2461,2462,2463,1242],{},"Political prediction markets represent one of the most powerful tools for forecasting ",[1215,2464,2465],{},"global political events,\nelections, and geopolitical risks",[1204,2467,2468,2469,2472],{},"By combining ",[1215,2470,2471],{},"collective intelligence, probability modeling, and market incentives",", these platforms provide dynamic\nestimates for:",[1258,2474,2475,2477,2479,2481,2484],{},[1261,2476,1225],{},[1261,2478,2429],{},[1261,2480,1230],{},[1261,2482,2483],{},"economic crises",[1261,2485,2486],{},"global political developments",[1204,2488,2489,2490,1242],{},"As forecasting technology continues to evolve, prediction markets will become an increasingly important framework for\nunderstanding the ",[1215,2491,2492],{},"future of world politics",{"title":2494,"searchDepth":2495,"depth":2495,"links":2496},"",2,[2497,2498,2499,2500,2501,2502,2503,2504,2505,2514,2515,2516,2517],{"id":1329,"depth":2495,"text":1330},{"id":1545,"depth":2495,"text":1546},{"id":1704,"depth":2495,"text":1705},{"id":1891,"depth":2495,"text":1892},{"id":1962,"depth":2495,"text":1963},{"id":1993,"depth":2495,"text":1994},{"id":2023,"depth":2495,"text":2024},{"id":2053,"depth":2495,"text":2054},{"id":2083,"depth":2495,"text":2084,"children":2506},[2507,2509,2510,2511,2512,2513],{"id":2286,"depth":2508,"text":2287},3,{"id":2300,"depth":2508,"text":2301},{"id":2328,"depth":2508,"text":2329},{"id":2335,"depth":2508,"text":2336},{"id":2342,"depth":2508,"text":2343},{"id":2349,"depth":2508,"text":2350},{"id":2397,"depth":2495,"text":2398},{"id":2406,"depth":2495,"text":2407},{"id":2415,"depth":2495,"text":2416},{"id":2440,"depth":2495,"text":2441},"Analyze political prediction markets, election probabilities, geopolitical forecasts, war risk predictions, and global political event odds using data-driven forecasting models.","md",{},"\u002F_includes\u002Fcategory_politics",{"title":1194,"description":2518},"_includes\u002Fcategory_politics","b9ESxigg6qdybed6IGP1LOcXJmgudgLma6YfRTSRHcg",1780676640933]