[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":2525},["ShallowReactive",2],{"category-events-politics":3,"category-content-politics":1193},[4,26,39,57,76,90,105,118,133,144,158,170,182,196,208,222,235,250,263,276,289,301,320,337,349,362,374,388,400,412,423,434,444,456,467,479,492,504,515,526,541,552,562,573,584,594,606,617,630,641,652,665,675,685,698,708,720,733,743,753,767,779,790,800,811,822,836,847,858,869,882,892,906,917,928,940,953,965,976,990,1001,1014,1027,1038,1051,1066,1076,1088,1104,1116,1127,1138,1148,1160,1171,1182],{"id":5,"title":6,"slug":7,"category":8,"subcategory":9,"tags":10,"probability":18,"createdAt":19,"updatedAt":20,"resolutionDate":21,"description":22,"summary":23,"volume1wk":24,"featured":25},"371649","US x Iran diplomatic meeting by...?","us-x-iran-diplomatic-meeting-by-329","POLITICS","Politics",[9,11,12,13,14,15,16,17],"Iran Ceasefire","Iran","Vance","Trump","U.S. x Iran","Geopolitics","Peace Deal",0,"2026-05-30T10:42:45.013Z","2026-06-16T10:07:26.988Z","2026-04-30T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nA diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. \n\nBrief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.  \n\nThe meeting must be in-person and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.\n\nThe resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.","US x Iran diplomatic meeting by...? is a political prediction market asking whether there will be an in-person diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran by the listed deadline, 11:59 PM ET on April 30, 2026. The forecast resolves to Yes only if the meeting is deliberate, authorized, and publicly acknowledged by either government or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting; remote calls, informal contact, and chance encounters do not count. This makes the event a focused test of US-Iran diplomatic engagement rather than broader geopolitical signaling. Market sentiment in this prediction market has been heavily one-sided, with the current probability at 0%, suggesting traders see little expectation of a qualifying meeting before the end date. Because the contract includes indirect meetings through approved mediators as valid, the event prediction also reflects how negotiations may unfold beyond direct face-to-face talks. As a politics and geopolitics market, it is closely watched for signals about Iran ceasefire dynamics, U.S. foreign policy, and broader regional diplomacy.",4565895.467737994,true,{"id":27,"title":28,"slug":29,"category":8,"subcategory":14,"tags":30,"probability":32,"createdAt":33,"updatedAt":34,"resolutionDate":35,"description":36,"summary":37,"volume1wk":38,"featured":25},"585449","Who will sign U.S. x Iran deal?","who-will-sign-uptspt-x-iran-deal-20260612002238373",[14,17,31,12,15,9],"geopolitcs",10.5,"2026-06-16T10:07:56.091Z","2026-06-16T10:06:50.966Z","2026-08-01T03:59:00.000Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual signs a written agreement to which both the United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran are parties by July 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nA qualifying agreement must be signed by the listed individual acting in an official capacity.\n\nThe United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran must both be parties to the agreement; however, it is not required that representatives of either or both countries sign the agreement in order for it to qualify.\n\nThe listed individual may sign on behalf of either party, a third-party state, an international organization, or any other party to the agreement.\n\nBoth physical signatures and officially issued electronic signatures will qualify as signing.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant governments and parties to the agreement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.","Who will sign U.S. x Iran deal? is a political prediction market focused on whether a named individual will sign a written agreement involving both the United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran by July 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. The market resolves Yes only if the listed person signs the deal in an official capacity, whether by physical or officially issued electronic signature, and the agreement includes both countries as parties. The outcome does not require representatives of the U.S. or Iran to be the signatories, as long as the agreement qualifies under the rules. This event sits within the Politics category and Trump subcategory, reflecting broader market attention on U.S.-Iran diplomacy, peace deal prospects, and geopolitical negotiations. Current market probability is about 10.5%, indicating traders assign a relatively low but non-zero chance of a qualifying signature before the deadline. As an event prediction, it will likely draw market sentiment from official government statements and credible reporting on diplomatic progress, making it relevant for forecast tracking and political odds analysis.",532792.541632,{"id":40,"title":41,"slug":42,"category":8,"subcategory":9,"tags":43,"probability":50,"createdAt":51,"updatedAt":52,"resolutionDate":53,"description":54,"summary":55,"volume1wk":56,"featured":25},"372273","Where will the next US-Iran diplomatic meeting happen?","where-will-the-next-us-iran-diplomatic-meeting-happen-455",[9,44,15,45,16,12,46,11,14,47,48,13,49,17],"Foreign Policy","Nuclear","Khamenei","nuclear deal","Israel x Iran","Rewards 50, 4.5, 100 Deprec",3.55,"2026-05-30T10:42:48.812Z","2026-06-16T10:06:48.218Z","2026-06-30T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve according to the country in which the next diplomatic meeting between government representatives of the United States and Iran takes place by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.\n\nA diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. \n\nBrief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.\n\nThe meeting must be in-person (including indirect meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.\n\nIf the next diplomatic meeting between government representatives of the United States and Iran takes place in any country in the Middle East or North Africa other than the listed options, this market will resolve to “Other - Middle East\u002FNorth Africa”. \n\nIf the next diplomatic meeting between government representatives of the United States and Iran takes place in any country in Europe other than the listed options, this market will resolve to “Other - Europe”.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, additional countries’ regions will be determined based on the US State Department’s regional classifications in the “Countries and Areas List” (https:\u002F\u002Fwww.state.gov\u002Fcountries-and-areas-list). Any country classified as part of “Europe and Eurasia” will be considered to be in Europe. Any country classified as part of “Near East (Middle East and North Africa)” will be considered to be in the Middle East.\n\nIf the next diplomatic meeting between government representatives of the United States and Iran takes place in any unlisted country which is not classified in either of the specified regions, this market will resolve to “Other”.\n\nIf no qualifying meeting takes place by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Meeting by June 30”.\n\nIf a qualifying meeting occurs in more than one country, resolution will be based on where the first qualifying diplomatic session takes place.\n\nThe resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.","“Where will the next US-Iran diplomatic meeting happen?” is a Politics prediction market that asks traders to forecast the country hosting the next in-person diplomatic meeting between government representatives of the United States and Iran. The market resolves based on the first qualifying session held by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, with official government acknowledgments or credible media reporting used for resolution.\n\nThe event matters because any US-Iran meeting can signal movement on foreign policy, nuclear negotiations, regional security, or broader geopolitical tensions involving Iran, Israel, and Middle East diplomacy. The rules also allow indirect meetings through authorized mediators, while remote calls, casual encounters, or unofficial talks do not count. If no qualifying meeting occurs by the deadline, the outcome resolves to “No Meeting by June 30.”\n\nCurrent market probability is about 35.75%, suggesting traders see a meeting in one of the listed locations as possible but far from certain. The prediction market’s odds and sentiment may continue to shift as diplomatic developments emerge over the event window, which runs from April 12, 2026 through June 30, 2026.",3221779.0257319957,{"id":58,"title":59,"slug":60,"category":8,"subcategory":9,"tags":61,"probability":69,"createdAt":70,"updatedAt":71,"resolutionDate":72,"description":73,"summary":74,"volume1wk":75,"featured":25},"31875","Republican Presidential Nominee 2028","republican-presidential-nominee-2028",[9,62,63,64,65,66,67,68],"US Election","Elections","World Elections","Global Elections","Earn 4%","Primaries","United States",2.65,"2026-05-30T10:42:43.975Z","2026-06-16T10:03:36.054Z","2028-11-07T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources.\n\nAny replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.","Republican Presidential Nominee 2028 is a political prediction market tracking who will win and accept the Republican Party’s nomination for U.S. president in 2028. The market resolves to Yes if the named individual becomes the official Republican nominee, based on a consensus of official Republican Party sources; if not, it resolves to No. If the party replaces its nominee before Election Day, that change does not alter the market’s resolution, which makes the event prediction especially focused on the formal nomination outcome rather than later campaign adjustments. This forecast matters because the Republican nominee will shape the early direction of the 2028 U.S. election cycle, including party positioning, primary dynamics, and broader market sentiment around the race. The prediction market is active from July 11, 2025 through November 7, 2028, giving traders a long window to assess odds as the nomination process develops. Current market probability stands at 2.75%, suggesting the market expects this outcome to remain relatively unlikely at present, though probabilities can shift with new political developments, endorsements, debates, and primary results.",4777429.576322999,{"id":77,"title":78,"slug":79,"category":8,"subcategory":80,"tags":81,"probability":83,"createdAt":84,"updatedAt":85,"resolutionDate":86,"description":87,"summary":88,"volume1wk":89,"featured":25},"219798","Romanian PM Bolojan out by...?","romanian-pm-bolojan-out-by","Romania",[80,82,9],"World",96.45,"2026-05-30T10:43:08.527Z","2026-06-16T10:02:41.796Z","2026-12-31T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if Ilie Bolojan ceases to be Prime Minister of Romania for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn announcement of Ilie Bolojan's resignation\u002Fremoval before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to \"Yes\", regardless of when the announced resignation\u002Fremoval goes into effect.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be official information from Ilie Bolojan and the government of Romania; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.","Romanian PM Bolojan out by...? is a political prediction market on whether Ilie Bolojan will cease to be Prime Minister of Romania at any point before the market’s end date of December 31, 2026. The forecast resolves to “Yes” if Bolojan resigns or is removed from office, even if the change takes effect after an announcement is made before the deadline. If he remains in office throughout the full period, the market resolves to “No.”\n\nThis event matters because it tracks stability in Romania’s government and the potential for leadership change in a key EU and NATO member state. The resolution will rely primarily on official information from Ilie Bolojan and the Romanian government, with credible reporting also considered if needed. Current market probability is 98.25%, indicating traders overwhelmingly expect the outcome to be “Yes.”\n\nAs a political forecast, this event reflects strong market sentiment around a possible resignation or dismissal before year-end, and it is closely followed by traders watching Romania’s domestic politics and leadership risk.",48705.575570999994,{"id":91,"title":92,"slug":93,"category":8,"subcategory":94,"tags":95,"probability":18,"createdAt":99,"updatedAt":100,"resolutionDate":101,"description":102,"summary":103,"volume1wk":104,"featured":25},"17725","Starmer out by...?","starmer-out-in-2025","Starmer",[94,96,97,98,9,82],"UK","keir","Grooming Gangs","2026-05-30T10:42:45.616Z","2026-06-16T10:02:41.673Z","2025-12-31T12:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if Keir Starmer ceases to be the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom for any period of time between February 2 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn announcement of Keir Starmer's resignation\u002Fremoval before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to \"Yes\", regardless of when the announced resignation\u002Fremoval goes into effect.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the government of the UK, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.","Starmer out by...? is a political prediction market on whether Keir Starmer will cease to be Prime Minister of the United Kingdom at any point between February 2 and December 31, 2025. The forecast resolves to “Yes” if Starmer leaves office for any period during that window, and it can also resolve early if there is an official resignation or removal announcement before the end date. Resolution will rely on the UK government, with credible reporting also accepted. As a UK politics event, this market draws attention to leadership stability, cabinet confidence, and the potential for a change in government during a major electoral cycle. The current market probability is 0%, which suggests traders are assigning very low odds to a departure in the resolution period, though prediction market sentiment can change quickly as political conditions evolve. The event starts on February 3, 2025 and runs through December 31, 2025, making it a year-long political forecast for traders following Starmer, UK politics, and event prediction markets.",1650200.979711,{"id":106,"title":107,"slug":108,"category":8,"subcategory":9,"tags":109,"probability":112,"createdAt":113,"updatedAt":114,"resolutionDate":53,"description":115,"summary":116,"volume1wk":117,"featured":25},"143567","Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by...?","miguel-daz-canel-out-as-leader-of-cuba-by-june-30",[9,16,110,14,111],"Venezuela","Cuba",58,"2026-05-30T10:43:02.131Z","2026-06-16T10:02:41.579Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Cuba’s current leader, Miguel Díaz-Canel, is removed from power for any length of time by the listed date, ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\". \n\nFor the purposes of this market, Díaz-Canel will be considered to be removed from power if he resigns, is detained, or otherwise ceases to hold (or is publicly reported to be unable to perform the duties of) the office of First Secretary of the Communist Party of Cuba, which is widely regarded as Cuba’s top political post, within this market’s timeframe. \n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.","Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by...? is a political prediction market asking whether Cuba’s current leader will be removed from power for any length of time by June 30, 2026 ET. The market resolves to Yes if Díaz-Canel resigns, is detained, or otherwise ceases to hold — or is publicly reported unable to perform the duties of — the office of First Secretary of the Communist Party of Cuba, widely viewed as Cuba’s top political post. Otherwise, it resolves to No. This makes the event relevant to geopolitics and broader Cuba politics, as any change in leadership would be a significant development for the island’s domestic order and foreign relations.\n\nCurrent market probability is about 64%, suggesting traders see a moderate chance of this outcome within the forecast window. That level of odds reflects market sentiment rather than certainty, and the final resolution will depend on credible reporting before the end date. As a political forecast, this event prediction is closely watched by participants tracking Cuba, regional politics, and leadership stability.",56467.562695000015,{"id":119,"title":120,"slug":121,"category":8,"subcategory":63,"tags":122,"probability":126,"createdAt":127,"updatedAt":128,"resolutionDate":129,"description":130,"summary":131,"volume1wk":132,"featured":25},"57096","California Governor Election Winner","california-governor-election-2026",[63,62,9,123,124,125],"Governor midterms","California Midterm","California Governor",0.15,"2026-05-30T10:42:44.509Z","2026-06-16T10:02:41.330Z","2026-11-03T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to according to the candidate who wins the 2026 California gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026.\n\nIf the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.","California Governor Election Winner is a political prediction market forecasting who will win the 2026 California gubernatorial election, currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Traders in this election market are weighing the expected outcome of the governor race in one of the country’s most important states, with implications for California politics and broader U.S. election sentiment. The market will resolve to the candidate who wins the election, using Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC race calls, or official certification if those outlets do not all call the race for the same candidate. If the result is still unconfirmed by July 31, 2027, it will resolve to “Other.” Current market probability is about 25%, indicating that traders are assigning a modest chance to the leading outcome reflected in the market at this time. The market opened on October 9, 2025 and remains active through the election date, making it a closely watched event prediction for California Governor, Elections, and U.S. political forecast tracking.",2565135.4651909997,{"id":134,"title":135,"slug":136,"category":8,"subcategory":9,"tags":137,"probability":18,"createdAt":138,"updatedAt":139,"resolutionDate":140,"description":141,"summary":142,"volume1wk":143,"featured":25},"438327","Iran closes its airspace by...?","iran-closes-its-airspace-by",[9,16,15,12],"2026-05-30T10:42:44.156Z","2026-05-30T10:38:40.231Z","2026-05-31T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran initiates a major closure of its airspace, that is not solely due to weather conditions, by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nA “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or suspension of commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from Iranian airspace or a major Iranian Airspace region. A qualifying closure must apply generally to flights across Iran or a major Iranian airspace region. Limited cancellations, delays, or other partial closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain flights pre-approved by the Iranian Civil Aviation Authority may be permitted). \n\nAny non-weather complete suspension of commercial arrivals and departures affecting at least two of the following airports will qualify: Imam Khomeini International Airport (IKA), Mehrabad Airport (THR), Mashhad International Airport (MHD), Shiraz International Airport (SYZ), or Isfahan International Airport (IFN).\n\nQualifying previous examples include the January 2026 total closure of Iranian airspace except to international flights with express governmental permission (https:\u002F\u002Fwww.reuters.com\u002Fworld\u002Fmiddle-east\u002Firan-shuts-airspace-most-flights-flightradar24-says-2026-01-14\u002F) and the April 2024 closure of Iran’s western airspace (https:\u002F\u002Fwww.reuters.com\u002Fworld\u002Fmiddle-east\u002Firanian-airports-cancel-flights-until-monday-morning-2024-04-14\u002F). Non-qualifying examples include the January 27, 2026 partial closure of Iranian airspace around the Strait of Hormuz (https:\u002F\u002Fwww.aa.com.tr\u002Fen\u002Fmiddle-east\u002Firan-issues-airspace-notice-for-military-drills-near-strait-of-hormuz\u002F3812508) and the January 25 - April 25, 2026 VFR (Visual Flight Rules) flights suspension which did not broadly close commercial aviation in a qualifying region (https:\u002F\u002Fwww.intellinews.com\u002Firan-suspends-general-aviation-and-vfr-flights-in-new-airspace-directive-421997\u002F).\n\nWarnings, No-Fly-Zones, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Iran will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.\n\nAirspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from Iranian aviation authorities and a consensus of credible reporting.","Iran closes its airspace by...? is a political prediction market asking whether Iran will initiate a major closure of its airspace by the listed deadline of May 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. The forecast is focused on a broad suspension or cancellation of commercial flights transiting, arriving in, or departing from Iranian airspace, or a major Iranian airspace region, and excludes disruptions caused solely by weather. To qualify, the event must involve a general closure affecting commercial aviation, with examples including major restrictions at airports such as Imam Khomeini International Airport, Mehrabad, Mashhad, Shiraz, or Isfahan. This event matters because Iranian airspace decisions can affect regional aviation, U.S. x Iran geopolitics, and broader Middle East market sentiment. Traders in the prediction market are weighing the odds based on official aviation notices and credible reporting, with current market probability near 0%, indicating a low expected outcome at present. The market’s resolution will depend on whether Iran’s aviation authorities or reliable news sources confirm a qualifying closure before the deadline.",6620506.11378,{"id":145,"title":146,"slug":147,"category":8,"subcategory":9,"tags":148,"probability":152,"createdAt":153,"updatedAt":154,"resolutionDate":140,"description":155,"summary":156,"volume1wk":157,"featured":25},"424807","Jimmy Kimmel fired\u002Fresigns by May 31?","jimmy-kimmel-firedresigns-by-may-31",[9,14,149,150,151],"Celebrities","Culture","TV",0.25,"2026-05-30T10:43:07.723Z","2026-05-30T10:34:00.481Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Jimmy Kimmel ceases to be the host of Jimmy Kimmel Live! for any length of time between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nAn announcement of Kimmel's resignation\u002Ffiring before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to \"Yes\", regardless of when the announced resignation\u002Ffiring goes into effect.\n\nSuspensions, administrative leave, or other temporary measures will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from ABC or Disney, however a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.","Jimmy Kimmel fired\u002Fresigns by May 31? is a political prediction market asking whether Jimmy Kimmel will cease hosting Jimmy Kimmel Live! for any length of time between market creation and May 31, 2026. The event focuses on a clear forecasted outcome: a “Yes” resolution if ABC’s Jimmy Kimmel Live! host resigns, is fired, or otherwise stops hosting before the deadline; temporary suspensions or administrative leave do not count. If an official resignation or firing is announced before the end date, the market resolves to Yes immediately, even if the change takes effect later.\n\nThe market is relevant to politics, culture, celebrities, and TV because it tracks both entertainment news and potential media fallout involving ABC and Disney. As of the latest pricing, traders assign about a 25% probability to a Yes outcome, indicating the current market sentiment leans toward Kimmel remaining in place through the deadline, though the odds can move with new reporting. This event prediction is time-sensitive, with the forecast window ending at 11:59 PM ET on May 31, 2026.",33375.912205,{"id":159,"title":160,"slug":161,"category":8,"subcategory":9,"tags":162,"probability":163,"createdAt":164,"updatedAt":165,"resolutionDate":53,"description":166,"summary":167,"volume1wk":168,"featured":169},"528020","Who will Trump publicly insult by June 30?","who-will-trump-publicly-insult-by-june-30",[9,150,14],3.9,"2026-06-16T10:08:01.771Z","2026-06-16T10:07:31.889Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Donald Trump makes any public statement in which he insults, mocks, or attacks the listed individual personally or professionally in a clearly negative manner between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\". \n\nThis includes calling the individual weak, stupid, disloyal, a failure, using an insulting nickname, using other derogatory language, or using the negative form of a positive trait in a derogatory personal way (e.g., “He\u002FShe isn’t smart”). Negative forms used in reference to the individual's professional actions, policies, or decisions (e.g., “He\u002FShe isn’t being smart about this policy”) will not count. Policy disagreements stated without disparaging language will not count.\n\nA direct reference will qualify even if the individual is not named, so long as it is reasonably clear from context that they are the subject.\n\nAny written, verbal, or recorded public statement by Trump qualifies.\n\nThe resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.","Who will Trump publicly insult by June 30? is a political prediction market asking which person, if any, Donald Trump will publicly mock, attack, or insult before the deadline. The market resolves to Yes only if Trump makes a public written, spoken, or recorded statement that clearly targets a listed individual in a personally negative way, such as using derogatory language, an insulting nickname, or direct character attacks. General policy criticism or disagreements without disparaging language do not count, making the resolution rules especially important for traders following the forecast.\n\nThis event matters because Trump’s public remarks are often closely watched for signals about campaign strategy, messaging style, and intra-party tensions. Market sentiment currently implies a low expected outcome, with probability around 3.9%, though prediction market odds can shift quickly as new comments or reporting emerge. The market opened on May 26, 2026 and runs until June 30, 2026 at 00:00 UTC, with the final resolution based on a consensus of credible reporting. As a political forecast, it sits at the intersection of Trump, politics, and culture, and attracts traders tracking event prediction dynamics around high-profile public statements.",150802.03541100002,false,{"id":171,"title":172,"slug":173,"category":8,"subcategory":82,"tags":174,"probability":176,"createdAt":177,"updatedAt":178,"resolutionDate":86,"description":179,"summary":180,"volume1wk":181,"featured":169},"74056","Where will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next before 2027?","where-will-zelenskyy-and-putin-meet-next",[82,9,175,14,16],"Ukraine",1.45,"2026-05-30T10:43:22.898Z","2026-06-16T10:07:26.437Z","This market will resolve according to the location of the next meeting between Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Vladimir Putin by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. If no meeting takes place by December 31 ET, this market will resolve to \"No meeting before 2027\".\n\nA meeting is defined as any encounter where Zelenskyy and Putin are both present and interact with each other in person.\n\nFor the purpose of this market, a meeting held on Ukrainian territory under the de facto control of Russia (e.g., Crimea) will be considered part of Russia.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.\n","Where will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next before 2027? is a political prediction market asking traders to forecast the location of the next in-person meeting between Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Vladimir Putin. The market resolves based on credible reporting about the first meeting where both leaders are present and interact, with a deadline of December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. If no meeting occurs by then, the outcome is \"No meeting before 2027.\" The event sits at the intersection of world politics, Ukraine, and geopolitics, and it reflects market sentiment about whether direct talks between the Ukrainian and Russian presidents will happen again within the stated timeframe. Current market probability is about 2.6%, suggesting traders see a low chance of a meeting before the resolution date. Because the resolution source relies on consensus media coverage, the forecast is focused on documented diplomatic developments rather than speculation. This prediction market is relevant for anyone tracking the Russia-Ukraine conflict, peace negotiations, and the broader odds of high-level engagement between the two leaders.",26846.211618,{"id":183,"title":184,"slug":185,"category":8,"subcategory":9,"tags":186,"probability":190,"createdAt":191,"updatedAt":192,"resolutionDate":129,"description":193,"summary":194,"volume1wk":195,"featured":169},"32228","Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms","balance-of-power-2026-midterms",[9,62,63,65,187,66,188,68,189],"Midterms","Rewards 20, 4.5, 50","Main Election",42.5,"2026-05-30T10:42:51.171Z","2026-06-16T10:07:26.112Z","This market will resolve according to the result of the 2026 United States midterm elections.\n\nA party will be considered to have 'control' of the House of Representatives, if they win a majority of voting seats.\n\nA party will be considered to have 'control' of the Senate if they have more than half of the voting Senate members, or half of the voting Senate members and the Vice President.\n\nA candidate's party is determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time the 2026 United States midterm elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican Parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party that they most recently expressed their intent to caucus with at the time the 2026 United States midterm elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.\n\nIf control of the House is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will resolve according to the party affiliation of the first Speaker of the US House who is selected following the 2026 United States midterm elections. \n\nIf control of the Senate is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will resolve according to the party affiliation of the first Majority Leader of the US Senate who is selected following the 2026 United States midterm elections.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called winners of the House and Senate in the 2026 United States midterm elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.\n","Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms is a political prediction market tracking which party will control the U.S. House of Representatives and the Senate after the 2026 United States midterm elections. The outcome matters because congressional control determines the balance of power in Washington and shapes the legislative agenda heading into the second half of the presidential term. In this event prediction, the market resolves based on whether Democrats or Republicans win a majority in the House and whether either party secures control of the Senate, using the resolution rules tied to AP, Fox News, NBC, and, if needed, official certification. The forecast runs through the 2026 midterm election cycle, with the market currently set to resolve after results are finalized by the end date of November 3, 2026. Current market probability stands at 45.5%, giving traders a real-time read on market sentiment and the expected outcome. For search engines, this event is closely tied to U.S. elections, midterms, congressional control, political odds, and election forecasting.",225048.426108,{"id":197,"title":198,"slug":199,"category":8,"subcategory":9,"tags":200,"probability":18,"createdAt":202,"updatedAt":203,"resolutionDate":204,"description":205,"summary":206,"volume1wk":207,"featured":169},"574934","Elon Musk # tweets June 12 - June 19, 2026?","elon-musk-of-tweets-june-12-june-19",[9,201,150],"Tweet Markets","2026-06-16T10:07:52.570Z","2026-06-16T10:07:09.861Z","2026-06-19T16:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from June 12 12:00 PM ET to June 19, 2026 12:00 PM ET.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.\n\nReplies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https:\u002F\u002Fx.com\u002Felonmusk\u002Fstatus\u002F1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.\n\nDeleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).\n\nCommunity reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https:\u002F\u002Fxtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking \"Export Data\". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.","Elon Musk # tweets June 12 - June 19, 2026? is a prediction market focused on how many times Elon Musk (@elonmusk) will post on X during the resolution window from June 12, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET through June 19, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. The forecast counts main feed posts, quote posts, and reposts, while replies are excluded unless they appear as counted main-feed activity on the tracker. Deleted posts can still count if captured by the resolution source, and the market ultimately relies on the Post Counter figure at xtracker.polymarket.com, with X used as a secondary source if needed. As a politics-category event with strong ties to tweet markets and culture, this listing reflects ongoing market sentiment around Elon Musk’s posting frequency and public activity. Traders are effectively pricing the expected outcome for the number of tweets in the specified period, making it a time-bound event prediction with clear rules and a defined deadline. At the time of the latest update, the market is active, with notable volume and liquidity, though no probability figure is provided in the data.",2607165.0266160006,{"id":209,"title":210,"slug":211,"category":8,"subcategory":14,"tags":212,"probability":216,"createdAt":217,"updatedAt":218,"resolutionDate":53,"description":219,"summary":220,"volume1wk":221,"featured":169},"206825","Who visited Epstein's Island?","who-visited-epsteins-island",[14,9,213,214,215],"clinton","Epstein","Elon Musk",0.35,"2026-06-16T10:08:28.910Z","2026-06-16T10:07:09.265Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if evidence is made public confirming that the listed individual previously visited Little St. James by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThis includes but is not limited to flight logs, photographs, videos, court records, or sworn testimony that clearly place the listed individual on the island. Public confirmation from the listed individual that they visited Little St. James will also qualify for a “Yes” resolution.\n\nIf any release of Epstein-related files is carried out by the United States federal government within 48 hours of this market's resolution time, this market will remain open for 48 hours after the resolution time to allow for evidence of visits to Little St. James to be investigated.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.\n","Who visited Epstein's Island? is a political prediction market asking whether evidence will become public confirming that the listed individual previously visited Little St. James by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The market resolves to Yes only if credible reporting, public documents, photos, videos, flight logs, court records, sworn testimony, or a direct public admission clearly place the person on the island. If no qualifying evidence is released by the deadline, the expected outcome is No. There is also a special extension rule: if the U.S. federal government releases Epstein-related files within 48 hours of the resolution time, the market stays open for an additional 48 hours to allow new evidence to emerge. The event sits in the POLITICS category with a Trump subcategory, and the tags reference Trump, Clinton, Epstein, and Elon Musk, reflecting the broader public interest in potential associations. Current market probability is about 35%, suggesting traders see a meaningful but not dominant chance of a Yes resolution. As a prediction market, it reflects shifting market sentiment around future disclosures, evidence, and event prediction tied to the Epstein file release timeline.",13531.427694,{"id":223,"title":224,"slug":225,"category":8,"subcategory":14,"tags":226,"probability":228,"createdAt":229,"updatedAt":230,"resolutionDate":231,"description":232,"summary":233,"volume1wk":234,"featured":169},"563448","What will Trump say this week? (June 8)","what-will-trump-say-this-week-june-8-20260605142452241",[14,227,9],"Mentions",100,"2026-06-16T10:08:15.545Z","2026-06-16T10:07:08.669Z","2026-06-15T03:59:00.000Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump mentions the listed term between June 8, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and June 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nPlural and possessive forms of the listed term will count toward the resolution of this market regardless of context; however, other forms will NOT count.\n\nInstances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for \"joy,\" however \"killjoy\" is a compounding of the words \"kill\" and \"joy\").\n\nIf this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe \u002F Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).\n\nA ‘mention’ will include any verbal mention which is recorded (audio or video) and publicly accessible.\n\nWritten usages of terms (e.g. Truth Social posts, written statements, etc.) will not count toward this market's resolution.\n\nAI-generated audio or video will not count toward this market's resolution.\n\nVideos posted on his social media which were filmed outside this market's time frame will not qualify for a \"Yes\" resolution.","“What will Trump say this week? (June 8)” is a political prediction market centered on whether Donald Trump will verbally mention one of the listed terms during the market window from June 8, 2026, 12:00 AM ET through June 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The event resolves to Yes only if the term is spoken in publicly accessible audio or video; written posts, statements, and AI-generated media do not count, and exact wording rules apply for plurals, possessives, and certain compound forms. As a Trump-focused politics market, it tracks how traders are pricing the likelihood of a specific mention rather than a broader policy outcome or election result. The current market probability is 100%, indicating the market is fully priced toward the expected outcome at the time of the latest update, though prediction market odds can shift if new recordings or relevant appearances emerge before resolution. This type of event prediction is useful for monitoring market sentiment around Trump’s public communications, especially across speeches, interviews, and other recorded appearances during the weekly time frame.",31057.565574,{"id":236,"title":237,"slug":238,"category":8,"subcategory":239,"tags":240,"probability":244,"createdAt":245,"updatedAt":246,"resolutionDate":86,"description":247,"summary":248,"volume1wk":249,"featured":169},"118172","Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?","will-trump-acquire-greenland-before-2027","Denmark",[239,44,241,9,14,242,243],"Greenland","Davos","Parent For Derivative",5.95,"2026-05-30T10:42:53.247Z","2026-06-16T10:07:07.141Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the United States officially announces that Greenland will come under US sovereignty by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nSovereignty is defined as the transfer of the majority of the territory of Greenland from its current status as an autonomous territory within the Kingdom of Denmark to being under the formal governance or jurisdiction of the United States, either as a state, territory, or other classification within the US system.\n\nAn official announcement made by the United States and Denmark that Greenland will come under US sovereignty will qualify, even if the actual transfer of sovereignty is yet to occur. Only announcements of official agreements or actions (e.g. executive order, signed legislation, etc.) will count - mere posts on Social Media will not.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the US, Greenland, and Denmark, however a consensus of credible reporting confirming that Greenland has come under U.S. sovereignty will also qualify.","Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? is a political prediction market focused on whether the United States will officially announce, by December 31, 2026, that Greenland will come under U.S. sovereignty. The market resolves to Yes only if there is an official announcement or action from the United States and Denmark showing Greenland will be transferred from its current status as an autonomous territory within the Kingdom of Denmark to U.S. governance or jurisdiction. Social media posts alone do not count; the resolution must be based on official government information or credible reporting confirming sovereignty change. This event matters because it sits at the intersection of U.S. foreign policy, Denmark, Greenland, and Trump-related geopolitical expectations. Traders are forecasting a low-probability outcome: current market probability is about 6.85%, suggesting the market sentiment leans strongly toward No. As a prediction market event, it reflects odds on a highly unusual diplomatic scenario rather than a conventional policy vote, with the start date in late December 2025 and the deadline at the end of 2026.",211409.96774700412,{"id":251,"title":252,"slug":253,"category":8,"subcategory":254,"tags":255,"probability":257,"createdAt":258,"updatedAt":259,"resolutionDate":86,"description":260,"summary":261,"volume1wk":262,"featured":169},"143443","Venezuela leader end of 2026?","venezuela-leader-end-of-2026","Trump-Machado",[254,110,14,9,16,256,188],"maduro",3.45,"2026-05-30T10:42:48.124Z","2026-06-16T10:06:47.934Z","This market will resolve to the individual who officially holds the position of the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026 at 12 PM ET.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, \"officially holds\" refers to the individual that was formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as the head of state of Venezuela or otherwise confirmed by official government information as being the head of state of Venezuela. \n\nIf the Venezuelan government does not clearly state who is the head of state, the market will resolve to the individual who is listed as the Head of State by the UN (see: https:\u002F\u002Fwww.un.org\u002Fdgacm\u002Fen\u002Fcontent\u002Fprotocol\u002Fhshgnfa).  \n\nIn the event that more than one official head of state is listed by the Venezuelan  government, this market will resolve to the individual who is listed as having primary status. If no distinction is made, the market will resolve to the individual who first assumed the position. \n\nIf no individual holds the position this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. \n\nThe following do NOT constitute \"officially holding\" the role: nominated, announced, or designated as the head of state of Venezuela but appointment not yet effective; appointed with an effective date after Dec 31, 2026; previously served as the head of state of Venezuela but term has expired, resigned, or been terminated before Dec 31, 2026; serving as the head of state of Venezuela in a consultant, contractor, or unofficial capacity; named as successor or heir apparent to the head of state of Venezuela but not yet appointed; or holding a different role with oversight of the head of state of Venezuela but not the specified position itself.\n\nThe primary resolution source will be official information from the UN recognized government of Venezuela. If the Government of Venezuela does not clearly state who is the head of state, information from the UN and a consensus of credible reporting may be used. \n\nNote: this market is mutually exclusive. \n","Venezuela leader end of 2026? is a political prediction market asking who will officially hold the position of head of state of Venezuela on Dec. 31, 2026 at 12 PM ET. The market will resolve based on the individual formally appointed, confirmed if needed, and sworn in, or otherwise recognized by official government information. If Venezuela does not clearly identify a head of state, the UN-listed head of state will be used instead. If no individual holds the office, the outcome resolves to “No Head of State.”\n\nThis event matters because Venezuela’s leadership has major implications for domestic politics, regional geopolitics, and U.S.-Venezuela relations, especially given the Trump-Machado and Maduro references in the market tags. Traders are effectively forecasting the expected outcome for Venezuela’s top office over the course of 2026, with the event starting on Jan. 4, 2026 and ending at year-end.\n\nCurrent market probability is about 5.45%, suggesting traders view this outcome as a low-probability forecast at present. As with other political prediction markets, odds can shift materially as official announcements, recognition disputes, and broader market sentiment change over time.",607240.1755880001,{"id":264,"title":265,"slug":266,"category":8,"subcategory":267,"tags":268,"probability":269,"createdAt":270,"updatedAt":271,"resolutionDate":272,"description":273,"summary":274,"volume1wk":275,"featured":169},"60182","Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026","nobel-peace-prize-winner-2026-139","Awards",[267,9,16,82],7.5,"2026-05-30T10:42:47.726Z","2026-06-16T10:06:18.841Z","2026-10-10T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee.\n\nIf multiple listed individuals or entities jointly receive the prize, the market will resolve to a single winner. If Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy,  Benjamin Netanyahu, Vladimir Putin, or Elon Musk are among the recipients, the market will resolve to the highest-ranked among them in that exact order of precedence. If none of those five are among the winners and the prize is awarded jointly to at least one listed individual and at least one listed organization, the market will resolve in favor of the individual. If no prioritized individuals are among the winners and all listed recipients are of the same type (all individuals or all organizations), the market will resolve to the person whose last name, or the entity’s name, comes first in alphabetical order as listed in this market.\n\nIf no official announcement regarding the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize has been made by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Other.\"\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.","Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026 is a politics prediction market forecasting who will receive the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee. The market resolves to the official winner, with special rules for joint recipients and several prioritized individuals, including Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Benjamin Netanyahu, Vladimir Putin, and Elon Musk. If no official announcement has been made by March 31, 2027 at 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to Other. This event matters because the Nobel Peace Prize is one of the most closely watched global awards, often reflecting market sentiment around diplomacy, conflict resolution, and international influence. Traders are pricing in a relatively low expected outcome for any single candidate, with current market probability at 8.5%. As a prediction market, it captures shifting odds and event prediction interest across politics, awards, geopolitics, and world affairs. The market opens on October 16, 2025 and is scheduled to end on October 10, 2026, ahead of the official Nobel announcement cycle.",541564.9712489999,{"id":277,"title":278,"slug":279,"category":8,"subcategory":280,"tags":281,"probability":282,"createdAt":283,"updatedAt":284,"resolutionDate":285,"description":286,"summary":287,"volume1wk":288,"featured":169},"411239","Next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?","next-prime-minister-of-ethiopia","Ethiopia",[280,63,189,65,9],0.65,"2026-06-16T10:07:51.236Z","2026-06-16T10:06:02.820Z","2026-06-01T00:00:00.000Z","General elections are scheduled to be held in Ethiopia on June 1, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Ethiopia following the 2026 General elections.\n\nTo count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Ethiopia. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market.\n\nIf no such Prime Minister takes office by December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Ethiopia; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.\n","Next Prime Minister of Ethiopia? is a political prediction market centered on who will officially assume the office of Prime Minister of Ethiopia after the country’s June 1, 2026 general elections. The forecast is not about an interim or caretaker leader; it resolves only when an individual is formally appointed and sworn in as prime minister. If no qualifying prime minister takes office by December 31, 2028 at 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “Other.”\n\nThis event matters because Ethiopia’s election outcome and subsequent leadership transition are closely watched across domestic politics and global elections markets. Traders are using this prediction market to gauge the expected outcome of the post-election succession, with market sentiment currently implying a 65% probability for the leading outcome. The official resolution source is the Government of Ethiopia, though credible reporting may also be used if needed.\n\nWith the market active from April 27, 2026 through the June 1 election date, this is a straightforward event prediction focused on who ultimately takes executive office in Ethiopia.",16394723.007227,{"id":290,"title":291,"slug":292,"category":8,"subcategory":9,"tags":293,"probability":126,"createdAt":296,"updatedAt":297,"resolutionDate":86,"description":298,"summary":299,"volume1wk":300,"featured":169},"199763","Next UK Prime Minister in 2026?","next-uk-prime-minister-in-2026-122",[9,294,96,82,295,94],"England","PM","2026-05-30T10:42:47.805Z","2026-06-16T10:05:29.170Z","This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.\n\nTo count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed by the United Kingdom Monarch. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market.\n\nIf no such Prime Minister is appointed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Next PM in 2026”.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the United Kingdom; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.\n","Next UK Prime Minister in 2026? is a political prediction market asking which individual will be officially appointed Prime Minister of the United Kingdom by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The event focuses on the formal appointment by the UK Monarch, so interim or caretaker prime ministers do not count toward resolution. If no new prime minister is appointed before the deadline, the market resolves to “No Next PM in 2026.”\n\nThis forecast matters because it reflects expectations around UK leadership, government stability, and the broader political outlook in England and the United Kingdom. Traders are effectively pricing the odds of a leadership change within the 2026 timeframe, with market sentiment currently implying a 15% probability of a new prime minister being named before year-end. The market opened on February 5, 2026 and runs through the end of 2026, making it a long-dated event prediction tied to official government announcements or credible consensus reporting. As a political forecast, it is closely watched for signals about Prime Minister Keir Starmer and any potential succession scenario.",441345.868171,{"id":302,"title":303,"slug":304,"category":8,"subcategory":9,"tags":305,"probability":313,"createdAt":314,"updatedAt":315,"resolutionDate":316,"description":317,"summary":318,"volume1wk":319,"featured":169},"573539","What will Kevin Warsh say during June Press Conference?","what-will-kevin-warsh-say-during-june-press-conference-20260608181155516",[9,306,307,308,309,310,311,227,312,14],"Fed","Jerome","Jerome Powell","Fed Chair","Warsh","powell","fomc",94.5,"2026-06-16T10:08:13.638Z","2026-06-16T10:04:27.870Z","2026-06-18T03:59:00.000Z","Kevin Warsh is currently scheduled to give an FOMC Introductory Statement and press conference on June 17, 2026, at 2:30 PM ET. This market pertains to his Introductory Statement as well as the following Q&A session.\n\nThis market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Warsh says the listed term during the FOMC Press Conference. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nAny usage of the word regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.\n\nIf clips of old interviews or prerecorded videos are aired where Warsh is speaking, those clips will count toward this market's resolution.\n\nPluralization\u002Fpossessive of the word will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.\n\nInstances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for \"joy,\" however \"killjoy\" is a compounding of the words \"kill\" and \"joy\").\n\nIf this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe \u002F Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).\n\nIf no such statement by Warsh happens by June 17, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe resolution source will be video and transcripts of the FOMC Press conference.","What will Kevin Warsh say during June Press Conference? is a political prediction market tied to Warsh’s scheduled FOMC introductory statement and press conference on June 17, 2026 at 2:30 PM ET. The market asks whether Warsh will say a specific listed term during the statement or the follow-up Q&A, with resolution based on the official video and transcripts. Any spoken use of the word counts, including plural or possessive forms and eligible compound-word uses, and even prerecorded clips or old interview footage if aired during the event.\n\nThis event matters because Federal Reserve communications can move market sentiment around monetary policy, and traders often use prediction markets to forecast wording, emphasis, and signal changes from Fed officials. The current market probability is 94.5%, indicating strong expectations that the term will be mentioned before the June 17, 2026 deadline. As a political forecast in the Fed category, the event focuses less on policy outcomes and more on exact language during a high-profile press conference.",36461.251995,{"id":321,"title":322,"slug":323,"category":8,"subcategory":9,"tags":324,"probability":330,"createdAt":331,"updatedAt":332,"resolutionDate":333,"description":334,"summary":335,"volume1wk":336,"featured":169},"80052","Georgia Republican Senate Primary Winner","georgia-republican-senate-primary-winner",[9,63,67,325,326,327,328,329],"primary elections","Senate Primary","Republican Primary","Georgia Primary","May 19 Primaries",0.05,"2026-06-16T10:08:13.471Z","2026-06-16T10:04:21.500Z","2026-05-19T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Georgia.\n\nIf no 2026 Georgia Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Georgia Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.","Georgia Republican Senate Primary Winner is a political prediction market forecasting who will win the Republican primary for United States Senator from Georgia. The market resolves based on the Georgia Republican Party’s first official announcement of the results, or on overwhelming credible reporting if that is the clearest available outcome. If no 2026 Georgia Republican Senate Primary takes place, the market resolves to \"Other.\" This event matters because Senate primaries can shape party nominations, campaign momentum, and the broader political landscape ahead of the general election.\n\nThe forecast runs through the expected primary deadline of May 19, 2026, giving traders a way to price in candidate strength, turnout, and shifting market sentiment over time. Current market probability for the leading outcome is about 5%, suggesting traders see that result as relatively unlikely at this stage. As with most election-related event prediction markets, odds may move quickly as new polling, endorsements, and reporting emerge.",37091.07321100001,{"id":338,"title":339,"slug":340,"category":8,"subcategory":9,"tags":341,"probability":343,"createdAt":344,"updatedAt":345,"resolutionDate":86,"description":346,"summary":347,"volume1wk":348,"featured":169},"79222","Iran Nuke before 2027?","iran-nuke-before-2027",[9,82,16,12,342,45],"Middle East",6.85,"2026-06-16T10:08:02.156Z","2026-06-16T10:04:19.400Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, Iran's government itself, or credible global news sources officially confirm that Iran possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.\n\nOtherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".","Iran Nuke before 2027? is a political prediction market tracking whether Iran will be officially confirmed to possess a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. The market resolves to Yes only if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, Iran’s government, or major global news sources verify that outcome; otherwise it resolves to No. As a geopolitically sensitive event in the Politics category, the forecast reflects broader market sentiment around Iran, the Middle East, and nuclear risk. Traders are currently assigning a probability of about 6.85%, suggesting the expected outcome is still No, though the odds can change as new information emerges. The event begins on November 13, 2025 and runs through the end of 2026, giving the market a long horizon for developments in nuclear inspections, diplomacy, and regional security. This prediction market is closely watched because any credible confirmation of a nuclear weapon would have major implications for international relations, sanctions policy, and Middle East stability.",136891.299891,{"id":350,"title":351,"slug":352,"category":8,"subcategory":9,"tags":353,"probability":18,"createdAt":356,"updatedAt":357,"resolutionDate":358,"description":359,"summary":360,"volume1wk":361,"featured":169},"73339","Foreign intervention in Gaza by..?","foreign-intervention-in-gaza-by",[9,16,354,355,342,82],"Gaza","Israel","2026-06-16T10:08:31.096Z","2026-06-16T10:04:04.230Z","2026-03-31T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if police officers, security forces, or military personnel belonging to neither Israel nor a Palestinian entity begin an officially acknowledged police, military, peacekeeping, and\u002For security operation on the ground within Gaza by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe foreign personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of the Gaza Strip to qualify. Entering the maritime territory, as occurred during the US’s attempt to construct a floating pier in 2024, or entering the airspace will not qualify. \n\nEntering Israeli controlled buffer zones will not qualify.  \n\nEgyptian or other forces operating solely along the Egyptian\u002FGaza border will not qualify regardless of if they cross the border. \n\nForeign personnel carrying out individual special operations, diplomatic missions, or solely humanitarian operations will not qualify.\n\nQualifying deployments must involve active-duty personnel of at least one foreign state or international institution (e.g., the UN or multinational missions) who are officially sent to Gaza for an operational role (e.g., peacekeeping, convoy escort, detention, logistical support). To qualify, the deployment must occur within the specified timeframe; mere announcements will not suffice.\n\nThe resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.","Foreign intervention in Gaza by..? is a political prediction market asking whether any police, security, military, peacekeeping, or other officially acknowledged foreign operation will begin on the ground in Gaza by March 31, 2026. The market resolves “Yes” only if active-duty personnel from a state other than Israel or a Palestinian entity, or from an international institution such as the UN, physically enter the Gaza Strip for an operational role. Mere announcements, airspace activity, maritime activity, border activity along the Egyptian frontier, or limited special operations and humanitarian missions do not qualify.\n\nThe forecast matters because it tracks how the Gaza conflict may draw in outside actors through peacekeeping, convoy escort, detention support, or other security-related deployment. In geopolitics and Middle East markets, this kind of event prediction reflects broader market sentiment about regional escalation, ceasefire enforcement, and international involvement.\n\nAs of now, the market probability is 0%, indicating traders are assigning no current chance to a qualifying foreign deployment before the deadline. The event remains open, with the outcome determined by a consensus of credible reporting.",11796.895308,{"id":363,"title":364,"slug":365,"category":8,"subcategory":14,"tags":366,"probability":269,"createdAt":369,"updatedAt":370,"resolutionDate":86,"description":371,"summary":372,"volume1wk":373,"featured":169},"83804","Who will Trump pardon before 2027?","who-will-trump-pardon-before-2027",[14,9,367,368],"SBF","Sam bankman freid","2026-06-16T10:08:22.145Z","2026-06-16T10:04:02.391Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between November 17, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.","Who will Trump pardon before 2027? is a political prediction market tracking whether Donald Trump will grant a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve to any listed individual between November 17, 2025 and December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. The market resolves “Yes” only if the named person receives official clemency from Trump during that window; otherwise it resolves “No,” with government records as the primary source and credible reporting used as a secondary check. This event matters because Trump-era pardon decisions can signal legal, political, and strategic priorities, making it a closely watched forecast in U.S. politics. Tags and search interest around Trump, politics, and Sam Bankman-Fried suggest attention to high-profile potential clemency targets. As of the latest data, the market probability is about 7.5%, indicating traders currently assign a relatively low but non-zero chance of a pardon before the deadline. The event’s odds and market sentiment may shift as new reporting, legal developments, or public statements emerge over the forecast period.",20342.999653,{"id":375,"title":376,"slug":377,"category":8,"subcategory":9,"tags":378,"probability":381,"createdAt":382,"updatedAt":383,"resolutionDate":384,"description":385,"summary":386,"volume1wk":387,"featured":169},"91333","Virginia Republican Senate Primary Winner","virginia-republican-senate-primary-winner",[9,63,67,325,326,327,379,380],"Virginia Primary","August 4 Primaries",0.1,"2026-06-16T10:08:28.191Z","2026-06-16T10:03:56.973Z","2026-06-16T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Virginia.\n\nIf no 2026 Virginia Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Virginia Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.","Virginia Republican Senate Primary Winner is a political prediction market focused on who will win the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Virginia. Traders are forecasting the expected outcome of the primary election, with the market resolving to the named winner once the Virginia Republican Party first announces the result, or to “Other” if no 2026 Virginia Republican Senate Primary takes place. As a political forecast, the market is a useful gauge of election sentiment and candidate strength ahead of the Senate race. The current market probability is about 10%, indicating that traders assign a relatively low chance to the leading outcome at this time, though odds can change as campaign developments and reporting emerge. The event is active and scheduled through June 16, 2026, making it relevant for anyone tracking Virginia primary elections, Senate primary dynamics, and broader 2026 election coverage. Searchers looking for Virginia Republican Senate Primary Winner prediction, odds, or probability will find this event centered on the Republican nomination contest in Virginia.",14314.681447,{"id":389,"title":390,"slug":391,"category":8,"subcategory":9,"tags":392,"probability":330,"createdAt":394,"updatedAt":395,"resolutionDate":396,"description":397,"summary":398,"volume1wk":399,"featured":169},"518913","Elon Musk # tweets in July 2026?","elon-musk-of-tweets-july-2026",[9,201,393,150],"Rewards Automation 50 4.5 50 Deprec","2026-05-30T10:43:06.944Z","2026-06-16T10:03:56.801Z","2026-08-01T04:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X during the month of July 2026.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.\n\nReplies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https:\u002F\u002Fx.com\u002Felonmusk\u002Fstatus\u002F1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.\n\nDeleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).\n\nCommunity reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https:\u002F\u002Fxtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking \"Export Data\". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.","Elon Musk musk # tweets in July 2026? is a prediction market on how many times Elon Musk (@elonmusk) will post on X during July 2026. The event asks traders to forecast the total count of qualifying posts, limited to main feed posts, quote posts, and reposts; replies do not count, except for replies that appear on the main feed and are captured by the tracker. Deleted posts can still count if they remain available long enough to be recorded, and community reposts are excluded. The market resolves using the Post Counter at xtracker.polymarket.com, with X used as a secondary source if tracker data fails. This political and culture-linked tweet market matters because Musk’s posting volume is often followed as a signal of his online activity and influence across politics, technology, and social media. The market is active from late May 2026 through the July 2026 resolution window, ending on August 1, 2026. Current market probability is about 5%, indicating low odds for the listed outcome relative to alternative forecasts.",32714.516674,{"id":401,"title":402,"slug":403,"category":8,"subcategory":9,"tags":404,"probability":406,"createdAt":407,"updatedAt":408,"resolutionDate":333,"description":409,"summary":410,"volume1wk":411,"featured":169},"98211","Georgia Governor Republican Primary Winner","georgia-governor-republican-primary-winner",[9,63,67,325,327,405,328,329],"Governor Primary",null,"2026-05-30T10:43:18.733Z","2026-06-16T10:03:50.292Z","This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Georgia, scheduled to take place on May 19, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off.\n\nIf no 2026 Georgia Gubernatorial Republican Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.”\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Georgia Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.","Georgia Governor Republican Primary Winner is a political prediction market focused on the outcome of the Republican Primary for Governor of Georgia. The market forecasts which candidate will win the 2026 Georgia gubernatorial Republican primary, including any second round or run-off, and it will resolve to “Other” if no primary takes place. The official resolution source is the Georgia Republican Party’s first announcement of results, though a strong consensus from credible reporting may also be used.\n\nThis event matters because it tracks early market sentiment on the Georgia governor race and offers a forward-looking view of the Republican field ahead of the general election cycle. Traders are pricing the expected outcome based on campaign developments, polling, and primary dynamics, making it a useful event prediction for political observers following elections, primaries, and Georgia politics. The market is scheduled around the May 19, 2026 primary date, with the event currently active and open for forecasting. No live probability is provided in the listing, but the prediction market includes meaningful trading activity and liquidity, which can help shape odds and reveal how traders assess the race.",29196.464752000004,{"id":413,"title":414,"slug":415,"category":8,"subcategory":14,"tags":416,"probability":417,"createdAt":418,"updatedAt":419,"resolutionDate":86,"description":420,"summary":421,"volume1wk":422,"featured":169},"73897","Who will leave Trump Administration before 2027?","who-will-leave-trump-administration-before-2027",[14,9],31,"2026-05-30T10:43:11.532Z","2026-06-16T10:03:47.641Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is announced that that the listed individual will leave the Trump Administration, or otherwise ceases to be a member of administration by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn announcement of the listed individual's resignation\u002Fremoval before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to \"Yes\", regardless of when the announced resignation\u002Fremoval goes into effect.\n\nThe Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels.\n\nThe primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.","Who will leave Trump Administration before 2027? is a political prediction market focused on whether a named official in Donald Trump’s administration will depart the administration before December 31, 2026. The market resolves to “Yes” if the individual is announced as resigning, removed, or otherwise ceases to be part of the Trump Administration by the deadline, even if the departure takes effect later. It covers formally appointed federal roles, including Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, and White House staff announced through official channels. This event matters because personnel turnover in the Trump administration can signal internal shifts in policy, influence, and governance priorities. As of the latest data, traders assign the market about a 24.5% probability to a departure before 2027, reflecting current market sentiment on the expected outcome. The prediction market remains active through the end of 2026, giving traders time to update odds as official announcements and credible reporting emerge. For watchers of political forecast markets, this is a straightforward event prediction tied to administration stability and personnel changes.",14199.347066000004,{"id":424,"title":425,"slug":426,"category":8,"subcategory":12,"tags":427,"probability":18,"createdAt":429,"updatedAt":430,"resolutionDate":140,"description":431,"summary":432,"volume1wk":433,"featured":169},"449163","Israel closes its airspace by...?","israel-closes-its-airspace-by",[12,355,9,16,48,428],"Rewards 50, 4.5, 20","2026-05-30T10:42:46.145Z","2026-06-16T10:03:45.239Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. \n\nA “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).\n\nWarnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.\n\nAirspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.","Israel closes its airspace by...? is a political prediction market focused on whether Israel will initiate a major closure of its civilian airspace by 11:59 PM ET on the specified deadline. The forecast asks traders to assess the likelihood of a broad suspension, cancellation, or shutdown of commercial aviation affecting all of Israeli airspace or a majority portion of it. According to the market rules, limited delays, isolated regional restrictions, airline-ordered suspensions, or weather-related disruptions do not count. The event matters because an airspace closure would be a significant geopolitical and aviation development, especially given the Israel x Iran context reflected in the market tags and category. Market sentiment can shift quickly based on official aviation authority notices, credible reporting, or changes in regional security conditions. As of the latest data, the market probability is 0%, indicating the current expected outcome is that no qualifying closure will occur before the end date. The market runs from May 4, 2026 through May 31, 2026, making the timing central to any event prediction.",2854468.0396250016,{"id":435,"title":436,"slug":437,"category":8,"subcategory":9,"tags":438,"probability":126,"createdAt":439,"updatedAt":440,"resolutionDate":86,"description":441,"summary":442,"volume1wk":443,"featured":169},"424982","Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)","next-leader-out-of-power-before-2027-no-orban",[9,16,94,188],"2026-05-30T10:42:58.505Z","2026-06-16T10:03:33.404Z","This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office.\n\nAn announcement of a resignation\u002Fremoval, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify.\n\nOnly permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count.\n\nAdditionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market.\n\nIf this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.","Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban) is a political prediction market tracking which listed leader, if any, will permanently leave office before the end of 2026. The market is resolved by the first individual who ceases to occupy their official post on a permanent basis; resignations, announced departures, election defeats, temporary suspensions, caretaker arrangements, and other provisional transfers of power do not count. If none of the listed leaders is permanently removed by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET, the event will resolve to “None before 2027.”\n\nThis forecast matters because it reflects broader market sentiment on political stability and leadership continuity across geopolitics. Traders are effectively pricing the odds that an incumbent will be out of power before 2027, with the current market probability around 55%. The event begins on April 27, 2026 and runs through the year-end deadline, making timing central to the expected outcome. Resolution will rely on a consensus of credible reporting, and no additional individuals will be added after creation. The market includes political signals relevant to leaders such as Starmer and other officeholders tracked under the politics category.",81898.11996299998,{"id":445,"title":446,"slug":447,"category":8,"subcategory":9,"tags":448,"probability":417,"createdAt":451,"updatedAt":452,"resolutionDate":86,"description":453,"summary":454,"volume1wk":455,"featured":169},"81557","Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?","who-will-be-the-next-prime-minister-of-israel-after-the-next-election",[9,342,355,16,63,65,82,449,189,450],"Trump-Netanyahu","rewards 100, 4.5, 100 Deprec","2026-05-30T10:42:45.925Z","2026-06-16T10:03:19.479Z","Legislative elections are schedule to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. \n\nThis market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Israel following the 2026 parliamentary election. If an election is called early, this market will immediately resolve to the individual who is officially appointed and sworn in after that election.\n\nTo count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market.\n\nIf no such Prime Minister is sworn in by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.","Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election? is a political prediction market tracking the outcome of Israel’s next parliamentary contest and the official leadership that follows. The market is focused on who will be formally appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Israel after the legislative elections scheduled for October 27, 2026, or after any earlier election if one is called. Interim or caretaker prime ministers do not count for resolution, and the event will settle to “Other” if no qualifying appointment is made by December 31, 2027.\n\nThis forecast matters because Israel’s leadership outcome has major implications for domestic politics, coalition building, and broader Middle East geopolitics. Traders are effectively pricing the expected outcome of the election process, using official government sources and credible reporting to assess the odds. The current market probability for the next Prime Minister is 33.5%, reflecting ongoing market sentiment rather than a certain result. As a result, this event combines election forecasting, political probability, and succession analysis in a single prediction market tied to one of the most closely watched political developments in Israel.",2476763.5792989996,{"id":457,"title":458,"slug":459,"category":8,"subcategory":9,"tags":460,"probability":461,"createdAt":462,"updatedAt":463,"resolutionDate":86,"description":464,"summary":465,"volume1wk":466,"featured":169},"149904","Will a country leave BRICS in 2026?","will-a-country-leave-brics-in-2026",[9,16,82],15.5,"2026-06-16T10:08:27.404Z","2026-06-16T10:03:12.371Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if any member state formally withdraws from BRICS or provides an official notice of denunciation to BRICS between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal.\n\nThe resolution source will be official information from the relevant government and BRICS; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.","Will a country leave BRICS in 2026? is a political prediction market asking whether any BRICS member state will formally withdraw, or submit an official notice of denunciation, before December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. The event is resolved using official government statements and BRICS announcements, though credible reporting may also be considered if needed. In plain terms, traders are forecasting whether the bloc will lose a member during the market window. This matters because BRICS is a major geopolitical forum, and a withdrawal would signal meaningful strain within the group and could affect broader geopolitics and world affairs. As of the latest market data, the implied probability is about 15.5%, suggesting market sentiment leans toward no country exiting in 2026, but with a meaningful minority view that an exit remains possible. The forecast runs from the market’s creation through the end-of-year deadline, making official notices or public diplomatic moves especially important for event prediction and resolution.",15143.753633,{"id":468,"title":469,"slug":470,"category":8,"subcategory":14,"tags":471,"probability":228,"createdAt":473,"updatedAt":474,"resolutionDate":475,"description":476,"summary":477,"volume1wk":478,"featured":169},"574410","Who will attend the G7 Summit?","who-will-attend-the-g7-summit",[14,9,472,12,16],"G7","2026-06-16T10:08:20.075Z","2026-06-16T10:03:01.224Z","2026-06-17T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the specified person attends the G7 Summit event scheduled for June 15, 2026 – June 17, 2026 in Évian-les-Bains, France. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf the event is canceled or postponed beyond June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nAttending the G7 Summit is defined as being in physical attendance at the event at any point between the start and end of the Summit.\n\nThe resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.","Who will attend the G7 Summit? is a political prediction market focused on whether the specified person will be physically present at the G7 Summit in Évian-les-Bains, France, scheduled for June 15–17, 2026. The market resolves to Yes if that person attends at any point during the summit and No if they do not appear, or if the event is canceled or postponed beyond June 30, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. As a politics market in the Trump subcategory, it reflects trader expectations around high-level diplomacy, geopolitics, and possible U.S. involvement at the G7. The forecast is straightforward: participants are pricing the odds that the named individual will attend in person, with resolution based on a consensus of credible reporting. Current market probability is 100%, indicating a fully priced-in expected outcome at this time, though prediction market sentiment can shift if attendance plans change before the summit. This event is useful for tracking political forecasting, summit diplomacy, and short-term odds around a major international meeting.",22894.352392999997,{"id":480,"title":481,"slug":482,"category":8,"subcategory":483,"tags":484,"probability":485,"createdAt":486,"updatedAt":487,"resolutionDate":488,"description":489,"summary":490,"volume1wk":491,"featured":169},"421102","São Paulo Governor Election Winner","so-paulo-governor-election-winner","Brazil",[483,189,9,65,63],87,"2026-06-16T10:08:30.745Z","2026-06-16T10:03:00.912Z","2026-10-04T00:00:00.000Z","The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.\n\nTemporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.\n\nIf the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThis market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br\u002Feleicoes\u002Fresultados-eleicoes).","São Paulo Governor Election Winner is a political prediction market tracking who will win the São Paulo gubernatorial election in Brazil. The vote is scheduled for October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026 if no candidate secures a majority in the first round. The market will resolve to the candidate confirmed as the election winner, based on credible reporting or, if needed, the official results from Brazil’s Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE). Temporary or interim governors appointed before the election do not count for resolution purposes. \n\nThis event matters because São Paulo is Brazil’s largest and most influential state, making the governor race a closely watched test of political strength ahead of the 2026 election cycle. As a forecast, the market reflects trader expectations about the expected outcome rather than a fixed result. Current market probability places the leading outcome at about 87%, indicating strong but not certain market sentiment behind one candidate or result. The prediction market remains active through the election date, with a fallback deadline of June 30, 2027 if the winner is not known sooner.",12037.808688000001,{"id":493,"title":494,"slug":495,"category":8,"subcategory":12,"tags":496,"probability":228,"createdAt":498,"updatedAt":499,"resolutionDate":500,"description":501,"summary":502,"volume1wk":503,"featured":169},"585172","US and Iran sign an agreement by...?","us-and-iran-sign-an-agreement-byptptpt-20260611221049850",[12,497,15,14,9,16,17],"Treaty","2026-06-16T10:07:51.502Z","2026-06-16T10:02:55.796Z","2026-07-31T23:59:00.000Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States signs any written agreement with the Islamic Republic of Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nA qualifying agreement must be signed by both an authorized representative of the United States and an authorized representative of the Islamic Republic of Iran.\n\nBoth parties must either sign the same document, or sign individual documents which substantively and directly indicate acceptance of the same underlying agreement, regardless of minor or translated differences between the signed versions.\n\nBoth physical signatures and officially issued electronic signatures will qualify as signing.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.","“US and Iran sign an agreement by...?” is a political prediction market focused on whether the United States will sign any written agreement with the Islamic Republic of Iran by the listed deadline of 11:59 PM ET on July 31, 2026. The market resolves “Yes” only if an authorized representative of the U.S. and an authorized representative of Iran sign the same agreement, or sign separate documents that clearly accept the same underlying deal. Both physical and officially issued electronic signatures qualify. This event matters because any formal U.S.-Iran agreement would be a significant development in geopolitics, diplomacy, and broader Iran policy, with potential implications for regional stability and peace deal expectations. Current market probability is 100%, indicating traders are pricing in an extremely strong expectation that the forecasted outcome will occur, though prediction market odds can change as new information emerges. Resolution will rely primarily on official government information, with credible reporting as a secondary source if needed. As a political forecast, the market reflects active trader sentiment around treaty prospects, U.S. x Iran relations, and the likelihood of an official agreement before the end date.",6455040.2205400085,{"id":505,"title":506,"slug":507,"category":8,"subcategory":80,"tags":508,"probability":509,"createdAt":510,"updatedAt":511,"resolutionDate":53,"description":512,"summary":513,"volume1wk":514,"featured":169},"452587","Party of Next Prime Minister of Romania?","party-of-next-prime-minister-of-romania-788",[80,9,65,63,188],27,"2026-06-16T10:08:21.978Z","2026-06-16T10:02:45.466Z","This market will resolve to the political party of the next officially appointed and confirmed Prime Minister of Romania by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.\n\nTo count for resolution, the Prime Minister must be both formally appointed by the President of Romania and receive a vote of confidence from Parliament, resulting in the official formation of a new government. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister who does not receive a parliamentary vote of confidence will not count toward the resolution of this market.\n\nIf the prime minister comes from inside parliament, the party of the Prime Minister will be determined based on their formal party affiliation at the time they become Prime Minister. If the Prime Minister comes from outside parliament, their party will be determined by a consensus of credible reporting on which party they represent, hold membership in, or are formally affiliated with. If no clear affiliation exists, this market will resolve to “Independent\u002FTechnocrat”.\n\nIf no such Prime Minister is confirmed by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.”\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Romania; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.","Party of Next Prime Minister of Romania? is a political prediction market asking which party will hold the office of Romania’s next officially appointed and confirmed prime minister. The forecast resolves only when a new prime minister is formally appointed by the President of Romania and then receives a vote of confidence from Parliament, creating a new government. Interim or caretaker leaders do not count unless they secure that parliamentary approval. If the officeholder is an independent or a technocrat with no clear party affiliation, the market can resolve to Independent\u002FTechnocrat, and if no confirmed prime minister is in place by December 31, 2027, the outcome is Other.\n\nThis event matters because it reflects market sentiment on Romania’s political alignment, coalition dynamics, and the likelihood of a stable governing party emerging before the deadline. Traders are currently assigning about 27% probability to the listed outcome, making it a closely watched political forecast rather than a settled expectation. The market’s end date is June 30, 2026, while the resolution deadline extends to the end of 2027, giving participants time to price in future government formation and changes in party power.",20567.127177999995,{"id":516,"title":517,"slug":518,"category":8,"subcategory":9,"tags":519,"probability":18,"createdAt":520,"updatedAt":521,"resolutionDate":522,"description":523,"summary":524,"volume1wk":525,"featured":169},"564320","Donald Trump # Truth Social posts June 9 - June 16, 2026?","donald-trump-of-truth-social-posts-june-9-june-16",[9,14,201],"2026-06-16T10:08:13.680Z","2026-06-16T10:02:38.197Z","2026-06-16T16:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve according to the number of times Donald Trump (@realDonaldTrump), posts on Truth Social between June 9, 12:00 PM ET and June 16, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.\n\nReplies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.\n\nDeleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the \"Post Counter\" figure for posts found at https:\u002F\u002Fxtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking \"Export Data\". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, Truth Social itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.","Donald Trump # Truth Social posts June 9 - June 16, 2026? is a political prediction market tracking how many times Donald Trump (@realDonaldTrump) posts on Truth Social during the specified window. The forecast resolves using the platform’s Post Counter from xtracker.polymarket.com, with only main feed posts, quote posts, and reposts counting; replies do not count unless they appear on the main feed tracker. Deleted posts can still count if the tracker captures them in time. This event matters because it gives traders a real-time view of Trump’s posting frequency and broader market sentiment around his activity on the social platform. The expected outcome is not a yes-or-no result, but a count-based resolution tied to Trump’s posting behavior between June 9, 12:00 PM ET and June 16, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. The market is active through the end date of June 16, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET, and the current market probability is not specified in the available data. As a Trump and Politics market, it sits within a broader class of event prediction and political probability forecasts watched closely by prediction market traders.",36365.269451,{"id":527,"title":528,"slug":529,"category":8,"subcategory":530,"tags":531,"probability":535,"createdAt":536,"updatedAt":537,"resolutionDate":86,"description":538,"summary":539,"volume1wk":540,"featured":169},"226552","SBF released from custody in 2026?","sbf-released-from-custody-in-2026","Sam Bankman-Fried",[530,14,9,532,150,533,534],"Crypto","ftx","Crypto Legal",5.15,"2026-06-16T10:08:30.133Z","2026-06-16T10:02:35.568Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Sam Bankman-Fried is released from custody by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf Sam Bankman-Fried is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to \"Yes\".\n\nIf Sam Bankman-Fried is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to \"Yes\".\n\nTransporting Sam Bankman-Fried to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to \"Yes\".\n\nTemporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.","SBF released from custody in 2026? is a prediction market in the Politics category tracking whether Sam Bankman-Fried will be released from custody by December 31, 2026. The market resolves to “Yes” if he leaves state custody for any reason, including release under house arrest, parole, bond, or another condition that allows him out of correctional custody. Temporary outings for court appearances or testimony do not count unless custody ends. The forecast matters because it sits at the intersection of crypto legal risk, politics, and the ongoing public interest around the FTX founder’s case. As of the latest market data, traders are assigning a low probability of about 5.15% to the expected outcome of release by the deadline. That makes the current market sentiment lean strongly toward “No,” though prediction market odds can change as new legal or government updates emerge. The event is active now and remains open through the end-of-2026 resolution date, with official corrections information or credible reporting expected to determine the final result.",12323.224238,{"id":542,"title":543,"slug":544,"category":8,"subcategory":16,"tags":545,"probability":18,"createdAt":547,"updatedAt":548,"resolutionDate":53,"description":549,"summary":550,"volume1wk":551,"featured":169},"308216","Abbas Araghchi out as Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iran by...?","abbas-araghchi-out-as-minister-of-foreign-affairs-of-iran-by",[16,546,15,12],"Araghchi","2026-06-16T10:08:29.121Z","2026-06-16T10:02:33.437Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if Abbas Araghchi ceases to be Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iran for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn announcement of Abbas Araghchi's resignation\u002Fremoval before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to \"Yes\", regardless of when the announced resignation\u002Fremoval goes into effect.\n\nIf the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be official information from Abbas Araghchi and the government of Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.","Abbas Araghchi out as Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iran by...? is a political prediction market focused on whether Abbas Araghchi will cease serving as Iran’s foreign minister before the market closes on June 30, 2026 ET. The contract resolves to “Yes” if he resigns, is removed, detained, or otherwise stopped from performing the duties of the office for any period within the specified timeframe. It can also resolve early if an official resignation or removal is announced before the end date, even if the change takes effect later. As a geopolitics event tied to Iran and U.S. x Iran dynamics, the market is tracking questions about government stability, leadership continuity, and possible diplomatic shifts. Current market probability is shown at 0%, indicating traders currently assign no measured chance to a near-term exit, though prediction market sentiment can change quickly with official statements or credible reporting. Resolution will rely on official information from Abbas Araghchi and the government of Iran, with consensus media coverage also considered when necessary. This event prediction is relevant for anyone following Iranian politics, cabinet turnover, and geopolitical risk.",13347.613235,{"id":553,"title":554,"slug":555,"category":8,"subcategory":9,"tags":556,"probability":18,"createdAt":557,"updatedAt":558,"resolutionDate":204,"description":559,"summary":560,"volume1wk":561,"featured":169},"574928","White House # posts June 12 - June 19, 2026?","white-house-of-tweets-june-12-june-19-2026",[9,201,393],"2026-06-16T10:08:12.811Z","2026-06-16T10:02:32.483Z","This market will resolve according to the number of times White House (@WhiteHouse), posts on X between June 12, 12:00 PM ET and June 19, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.\n\nReplies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.\n\nDeleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the \"Post Counter\" figure for posts found at https:\u002F\u002Fxtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking \"Export Data\". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.","White House # posts June 12 - June 19, 2026? is a political prediction market that asks how many times the White House (@WhiteHouse) will post on X during the measured period from June 12, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET through June 19, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. The event focuses on the account’s main feed activity, including posts, quote posts, and reposts, while replies are excluded unless they appear on the main feed and are captured by the tracker. Deleted posts can still count if they are recorded long enough for the resolution source to register them.\n\nThe market matters because it offers a real-time forecast of White House communications volume, which can reflect the administration’s messaging cadence, news flow, and political priorities. Traders are effectively pricing the expected outcome based on the official post counter at xtracker.polymarket.com, with X used as a secondary source if needed. Current market probability is shown as 0, so the event’s odds should be interpreted from live market sentiment rather than a fixed expectation. The market ends on June 19, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET, when the final post count will determine resolution.",38665.227535,{"id":563,"title":564,"slug":565,"category":8,"subcategory":9,"tags":566,"probability":461,"createdAt":568,"updatedAt":569,"resolutionDate":86,"description":570,"summary":571,"volume1wk":572,"featured":169},"85704","Who will announce Presidential run before 2027?","who-will-announce-presidential-run-before-2027",[9,149,567,63],"President","2026-05-30T10:43:26.866Z","2026-06-16T10:02:31.811Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual officially announces that they are running for U.S. President in the 2028 United States presidential election by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn announcement by the listed individual  will be sufficient to trigger a \"Yes\" resolution, regardless of whether they actually filed a nomination to run, or whether they actually file a nomination to run in the future.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by the listed individual (ex: via speech, social media, etc.), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.","Who will announce Presidential run before 2027? is a political prediction market focused on whether a listed individual will formally announce a campaign for U.S. President in the 2028 United States presidential election by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The market resolves to Yes if the person makes an official announcement through a statement, speech, social media post, or other credible source, even if no formal nomination filing follows. It resolves to No if no qualifying announcement occurs before the deadline.\n\nThis event matters because presidential run announcements can reshape the early field, influence election narratives, and shift market sentiment around the 2028 race. Traders are forecasting which public figures may enter the contest before the cutoff date, making the event a useful signal for political odds and event prediction. The current market probability is about 11.5%, suggesting traders see the expected outcome as relatively unlikely, though not impossible.\n\nWith a start date of November 20, 2025 and an end date of December 31, 2026, the market provides a long window for new political developments, official statements, and credible reporting to affect the forecast.",9687.152428,{"id":574,"title":575,"slug":576,"category":8,"subcategory":9,"tags":577,"probability":18,"createdAt":579,"updatedAt":580,"resolutionDate":86,"description":581,"summary":582,"volume1wk":583,"featured":169},"57727","Lecornu out as French PM by...?","lecornu-out-as-french-pm-by-381",[9,82,578],"France","2026-05-30T10:43:03.722Z","2026-06-16T10:02:28.609Z","On September 9, French President Emmanuel Macron named Sébastien Lecornu as the new French Prime Minister. He resigned on October 6 after his cabinet faced severe opposition. On October 10, President Emmanuel Macron reappointed him as Prime Minister, tasking him with forming a new government.\n\nThis market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Sébastien Lecornu is no longer serving as Prime Minister of France for any length of time between October 10 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nAn announcement of Sébastien Lecornu's resignation\u002Fremoval before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to \"Yes\", regardless of when the announced resignation\u002Fremoval goes into effect.\n\nThis market's resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.","Lecornu out as French PM by...? is a political prediction market asking whether Sébastien Lecornu will stop serving as Prime Minister of France for any period between October 10 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. The event focuses on the stability of Emmanuel Macron’s government after Lecornu was first named prime minister on September 9, resigned on October 6 following intense opposition to his cabinet, and was then reappointed on October 10 to form a new government. In plain terms, traders are forecasting whether Lecornu will again leave office before the market deadline, based on credible reporting and any resignation or removal announcement made before expiration. As a France-focused politics event, it reflects broader market sentiment around Macron’s ability to maintain a functioning cabinet amid parliamentary and public pressure. The current market probability is not provided in the data, but the active forecast remains relevant for traders following French political developments, event prediction, and government stability in the World\u002FPolitics category.",47502.915319,{"id":585,"title":586,"slug":587,"category":8,"subcategory":14,"tags":588,"probability":228,"createdAt":589,"updatedAt":590,"resolutionDate":86,"description":591,"summary":592,"volume1wk":593,"featured":169},"73079","Which countries will Donald Trump visit in 2026?","which-countries-will-donald-trump-visit-in-2026",[14,9,44,82,16],"2026-05-30T10:43:01.809Z","2026-06-16T10:02:28.040Z","If U.S. President Donald Trump visits a listed country between January 1 and December 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET, the relevant market will resolve to \"Yes\". Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purpose of this market, a \"visit\" is defined as Trump physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of the listed country. Whether or not Trump enters the country's airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this information will be official information from government of the United States of America, official information from Trump or released by his verified social media accounts (e.g. https:\u002F\u002Ftwitter.com\u002FPOTUS), however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.\n","\"Which countries will Donald Trump visit in 2026?\" is a political prediction market focused on Trump’s foreign travel during 2026. Traders are forecasting whether the U.S. President will physically enter the territory of any listed country between January 1 and December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Under the market rules, a visit requires Trump to enter a country’s terrestrial or maritime territory; airspace alone does not count. The outcome will be resolved using official U.S. government information, statements from Trump or his verified social media accounts, and credible reporting if needed.\n\nAs a Trump and geopolitics market, this event reflects broader market sentiment around foreign policy, diplomacy, and presidential travel. The current market probability is 100%, indicating traders are pricing in a complete expectation that at least one qualifying visit will occur, though prediction market odds can change over time. The market opens on November 5, 2025 and runs through December 31, 2026, making it a long-dated event prediction for political and global affairs watchers.",80566.423931,{"id":595,"title":596,"slug":597,"category":8,"subcategory":14,"tags":598,"probability":600,"createdAt":601,"updatedAt":602,"resolutionDate":86,"description":603,"summary":604,"volume1wk":605,"featured":169},"34349","Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026?","will-trump-resign-by-december-31-2026",[14,599,9],"Trump Presidency",6.5,"2026-06-16T10:08:33.055Z","2026-06-16T10:02:27.110Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if President of the United States Donald Trump announces he has resigned or will resign the presidency by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nIf it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to \"No.\"\n\nFor this market to resolve to \"Yes,\" it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.","Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026? is a political prediction market asking whether President Donald Trump will announce that he has resigned, or will resign, the presidency by 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026. The market resolves to Yes only if Trump makes that announcement by the deadline; if he does not, or if resignation becomes impossible for resolution purposes, the outcome is No. Because the question hinges on a public announcement rather than the actual act of leaving office, the forecast focuses on official statements and credible reporting. The event is part of the Politics category, under Trump, and is being tracked as a political forecast with event prediction implications for traders following Trump presidency odds. As of the latest market data, the probability of a Yes outcome is about 6.5%, suggesting market sentiment leans strongly toward No while still assigning some chance to an unexpected resignation announcement before the end-of-2026 deadline.",10284.193562,{"id":607,"title":608,"slug":609,"category":8,"subcategory":9,"tags":610,"probability":611,"createdAt":612,"updatedAt":613,"resolutionDate":86,"description":614,"summary":615,"volume1wk":616,"featured":169},"80885","US takes Panama Canal before 2027?","us-takes-panama-canal-before-2027",[9,14,82,16,44],12.5,"2026-06-16T10:08:32.563Z","2026-06-16T10:02:23.797Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Panama Canal comes under US control by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purposes of this market, US control means the United States assumes primary operational authority over the canal, either via diplomatic agreement, military action, or any other means.\n\nAn official announcement made by the United States and Panama that the Panama Canal will come under US control will qualify, even if the actual transfer of control is yet to occur. Only announcements of official agreements or actions (e.g. executive order, signed legislation, etc.) will count - mere posts on Social Media will not.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be official information from the US Government and the Government of Panama, however a consensus of credible reporting confirming that the Panama Canal has come under US sovereignty will also qualify.","US takes Panama Canal before 2027? is a political prediction market asking whether the Panama Canal will come under U.S. control by December 31, 2026. The market resolves to “Yes” if the United States assumes primary operational authority over the canal through a diplomatic agreement, military action, executive order, signed legislation, or other official action recognized by the governments of the United States and Panama. An official announcement that the canal will come under U.S. control also qualifies, even if the transfer has not yet been completed. \n\nThis event matters because the Panama Canal is a strategically important global shipping route, so any change in control would carry major geopolitical and foreign policy implications. Traders are effectively forecasting the expected outcome of U.S.-Panama relations and the likelihood of an official transfer or sovereignty change before the deadline. As of the latest update, the market probability is about 12.5%, indicating relatively low but nonzero odds. The market’s resolution will depend on official government information or credible reporting confirming U.S. control.",10619.291187,{"id":618,"title":619,"slug":620,"category":8,"subcategory":63,"tags":621,"probability":330,"createdAt":625,"updatedAt":626,"resolutionDate":384,"description":627,"summary":628,"volume1wk":629,"featured":169},"403295","OK-01 Republican Primary Winner","ok-01-republican-primary-winner",[63,327,325,622,67,9,623,624],"House Primary","Oklahoma Primary","June 16 Primaries","2026-06-16T10:08:08.651Z","2026-06-16T10:02:18.527Z","This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the OK-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on June 16, 2026.\n\nIf no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https:\u002F\u002Fwww.rnc.org\u002F.\n\nAny replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.","OK-01 Republican Primary Winner is a political prediction market on which candidate will win the Republican nomination for Oklahoma’s 1st Congressional District in the 2026 midterm elections. The forecast focuses on the Republican primary, scheduled for June 16, 2026, and resolves to the candidate officially recognized by Republican sources such as the RNC. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to \"Other.\" This event matters because the winner of the GOP primary will be positioned to contest the OK-01 U.S. House seat, making it a key indicator of the district’s general-election landscape. Current market probability is about 5%, suggesting traders see this outcome as unlikely at the moment, though prediction market odds can shift quickly as information changes. For users following political forecast activity, this event offers a straightforward read on market sentiment around the Republican primary, expected outcome, and election timing.",55408.31295900002,{"id":631,"title":632,"slug":633,"category":8,"subcategory":9,"tags":634,"probability":330,"createdAt":635,"updatedAt":636,"resolutionDate":637,"description":638,"summary":639,"volume1wk":640,"featured":169},"591093","Elon Musk # tweets June 15 - June 17, 2026?","elon-musk-of-tweets-june-15-june-17",[9,201,150],"2026-06-16T10:07:58.680Z","2026-06-16T10:02:14.614Z","2026-06-17T16:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from June 15 12:00 PM ET to June 17, 2026 12:00 PM ET.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.\n\nReplies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https:\u002F\u002Fx.com\u002Felonmusk\u002Fstatus\u002F1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.\n\nDeleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).\n\nCommunity reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https:\u002F\u002Fxtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking \"Export Data\". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.","Elon Musk # tweets June 15 - June 17, 2026? is a prediction market on how many times Elon Musk (@elonmusk) will post on X during the specified window, from June 15, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET to June 17, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. The event resolves using the tracker’s “Post Counter” at xtracker.polymarket.com, with only main feed posts, quote posts, and reposts counting toward the total. Replies are excluded, except where a reply appears on the main feed and is captured by the tracker. Deleted posts can count if they are recorded before removal.\n\nThis political tweet market matters because Musk’s posting activity often draws broad attention across politics, technology, and culture, making it a closely watched event prediction for traders tracking market sentiment around his X usage. The current market probability is about 5%, suggesting traders see a low chance that the target outcome will occur under the market’s resolution rules. As the end date approaches, odds may shift based on observed posting frequency and overall forecast momentum.",273205.9174210001,{"id":642,"title":643,"slug":644,"category":8,"subcategory":213,"tags":645,"probability":228,"createdAt":647,"updatedAt":648,"resolutionDate":53,"description":649,"summary":650,"volume1wk":651,"featured":169},"196767","Who will testify to congress about Epstein?","who-will-testify-to-congress-about-epstein",[213,9,214,646],"Jeffrey Epstein","2026-05-30T10:43:09.785Z","2026-06-16T10:02:13.741Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the listed individual provides testimony about Jeffrey Epstein before either chamber of the United States Congress (House of Representatives or Senate), or any of their official committees or subcommittees, by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nQualifying testimony may be either live or recorded, in-person or remote, and closed or open to the public.\n\nA primary focus of the testimony must be information related to Jeffrey Epstein, including but not limited to the listed individuals’ relationship with Epstein, their appearance in Epstein-related files released by the federal government, their involvement in previous Epstein investigations or criminal proceedings, or their general knowledge of Epstein and his life. Limited references to Epstein in an otherwise unrelated congressional testimony will not qualify.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.","Who will testify to congress about Epstein? is a political prediction market tracking whether any listed individual will provide testimony about Jeffrey Epstein before the U.S. Congress, including the House or Senate and their committees or subcommittees, by June 30, 2026. The market resolves to Yes only if the testimony is directly focused on Epstein-related matters, such as the person’s relationship with Epstein, appearances in federal Epstein files, prior investigations or criminal proceedings, or broader knowledge of Epstein and his life. Limited mentions in unrelated congressional testimony do not qualify. As an event prediction in the Politics category, the market reflects trader expectations around whether credible congressional testimony will emerge within the deadline. Current market probability is shown at 100%, indicating very strong market sentiment, though the outcome is not guaranteed. Because resolution is based on a consensus of credible reporting, the forecast depends on public testimony that clearly meets the market’s criteria before the June 30, 2026 cutoff.",26830.162820999998,{"id":653,"title":654,"slug":655,"category":8,"subcategory":82,"tags":656,"probability":126,"createdAt":659,"updatedAt":660,"resolutionDate":661,"description":662,"summary":663,"volume1wk":664,"featured":169},"166435","Next Prime Minister of Sweden","next-prime-minister-of-sweden",[82,65,657,63,64,658,188,9,189],"Swedish","Sweden","2026-05-30T10:43:02.086Z","2026-06-16T10:02:12.928Z","2026-09-13T00:00:00.000Z","Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026. \n\nThis market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed and assumes office as Prime Minister of Sweden following the next parliamentary election.\n\nTo count for resolution, the individual must officially assume office. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market.\n\nIf no such Prime Minister assumes office by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Sweden; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.","Next Prime Minister of Sweden is a political prediction market tracking who will officially assume office as Sweden’s next prime minister after the parliamentary elections scheduled for September 13, 2026. The market does not resolve to an interim or caretaker leader; it will only settle on the next individual who is formally appointed and takes office. If no new prime minister assumes office by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to “Other.”\n\nThis event matters because Sweden’s election outcome will shape the country’s next government and leadership transition, making it a closely watched world elections forecast. Traders are effectively pricing the expected outcome based on election signals, coalition dynamics, and market sentiment around potential successors. As of the latest data, the market probability is 15%, indicating that current odds are relatively low for the leading implied outcome, though prediction market probabilities can change quickly as new information emerges.\n\nWith active trading, notable liquidity, and strong open interest, this is a significant political forecast for anyone following Swedish elections, global politics, and event prediction markets.",51996.814716,{"id":666,"title":667,"slug":668,"category":8,"subcategory":9,"tags":669,"probability":18,"createdAt":670,"updatedAt":671,"resolutionDate":53,"description":672,"summary":673,"volume1wk":674,"featured":169},"84575","Epstein client list released by...?","epstein-client-list-released-in-2025-372",[9,214,14],"2026-05-30T10:42:46.539Z","2026-06-16T10:02:12.865Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if files which were not previously public and which pertain to the illegal activities of Jeffrey Epstein are made public by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, and those files contain a list of individuals associated with Epstein in connection with his illegal activities, including but not limited to sex trafficking or related crimes. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”\n\nTo qualify, the files must contain names in a context equivalent to what is commonly referred to as Epstein’s “client list”—that is, a document that explicitly identifies a list or set of individuals as being directly connected to, participating in, facilitating, funding, soliciting, or otherwise being implicated in Jeffrey Epstein’s illegal activities.\n\nA document may qualify even if it does not contain explicit incriminating language on its face, so long as credible reporting or accompanying official context confirms that the released document is an incriminating client list or functionally equivalent roster of individuals tied to Epstein’s illegal activity.\n\nThe following will not qualify:\n\n- Flight logs, passenger manifests, visitor logs, or transportation records which merely show individuals traveling with, meeting with, or visiting Epstein without any explicit or contextual tie to criminal activity.\n\n- Contact books, address lists, social calendars, guest lists, schedules, correspondence logs, or similar documents that include names solely due to social contact, proximity, acquaintance, or logistical interaction with Epstein.\n\n- Any document listing individuals without accompanying language, context, or credible reporting that connects those individuals to Epstein’s illegal activity.\n\nThe primary resolution sources for this market will be the released files themselves and a consensus of credible reporting.","“Epstein client list released by...?” is a political prediction market asking whether previously non-public files related to Jeffrey Epstein’s illegal activities will be made public by December 31, 2025, and whether those files contain a meaningful list of individuals tied to that activity. The event is not about ordinary travel records, social contact lists, or guest logs; it requires a document or official context that credibly identifies people as connected to, facilitating, funding, or otherwise implicated in Epstein’s crimes. That distinction is central to how the market resolves. The forecast matters because any release could shape public understanding of Epstein’s network and drive major media and political attention. As of the latest market data, traders assign essentially 0% probability to a qualifying release, suggesting strong market sentiment that the expected outcome is “No.” The prediction market remains active through the end-of-2025 deadline, with resolution based on the files themselves and credible reporting about their contents.",1231387.1330399986,{"id":676,"title":677,"slug":678,"category":8,"subcategory":9,"tags":679,"probability":257,"createdAt":680,"updatedAt":681,"resolutionDate":86,"description":682,"summary":683,"volume1wk":684,"featured":169},"131586","Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027?","is-jeffrey-epstein-alive-498",[9,214,14],"2026-05-30T10:43:10.095Z","2026-06-16T10:02:12.778Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if incontrovertible proof is publicly revealed that Jeff Epstein, the New York financier, is still alive between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.\n","Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027? is a political prediction market asking whether publicly available, incontrovertible proof will emerge showing that New York financier Jeffrey Epstein is still alive before December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The event resolves to “Yes” only if credible sources collectively confirm that outcome; otherwise it resolves to “No.” This makes the forecast straightforward: traders are pricing the odds that new evidence will surface within the market’s active window, which begins on December 29, 2025 and runs through the end of 2026. Market sentiment currently implies a low probability, with the event trading around 4.95%, though prediction market probabilities can shift as information changes. Because the resolution depends on a consensus of credible sources, the market is closely tied to public reporting, verification, and the appearance of authoritative evidence rather than rumor or speculation. As a politics-category event with Epstein and Trump tags, it sits at the intersection of political forecast activity and high-attention media narratives.",17825.254326000006,{"id":686,"title":687,"slug":688,"category":8,"subcategory":187,"tags":689,"probability":692,"createdAt":693,"updatedAt":694,"resolutionDate":129,"description":695,"summary":696,"volume1wk":697,"featured":169},"101106","Another US government shutdown & House Winner 2026?","another-us-government-shutdown-house-winner-2026",[187,65,62,690,691,9,63,68],"Gov Shutdown","Congress",81.35,"2026-05-30T10:42:53.673Z","2026-06-16T10:02:11.028Z","This market will resolve according to the combined outcome of whether there will be another US government shutdown by January 31 (https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket.com\u002Fevent\u002Fwill-there-be-another-us-government-shutdown-by-january-31?) and according to which party will win the House in 2026 (https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket.com\u002Fevent\u002Fwhich-party-will-win-the-house-in-2026?).\n\nThe rules and resolution criteria are as follows:\n\n1. Will there be another US government shutdown by January 31?\nThis market will resolve according to whether the U.S. Office of Personnel Management (OPM) announces another federal government shutdown due to a lapse in appropriations by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.\n\nPartial shutdowns count as shutdowns; announcements of office closures due to holidays or inclement weather do not qualify as a shutdown.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be OPM’s Operating Status page (https:\u002F\u002Fwww.opm.gov\u002Fpolicy-data-oversight\u002Fsnow-dismissal-procedures\u002Fcurrent-status\u002F).\n\n2. Which party will win the House in 2026?\nThis market will resolve according to the party that controls the House of Representatives following the 2026 U.S. House elections scheduled for November 3, 2026.\n\nHouse control is defined as having more than half of the voting members of the U.S. House of Representatives.\n\nIf the outcome of this election is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will remain open until the Speaker of the House is selected following the 2026 U.S. general election, at which point it will resolve to the party the Speaker is affiliated with at the time of their election to that position. If the elected Speaker does not caucus with any listed party this market will resolve “Other”.\n\nDetermination of which party controls the House after the 2026 U.S. House elections will be based on a consensus of credible reporting, or if there is ambiguity, final federal and\u002For state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2026 election results.","Another US government shutdown & House Winner 2026? is a political prediction market that combines two separate forecasts about U.S. governance and elections. Traders are evaluating whether the U.S. Office of Personnel Management will announce another federal government shutdown by January 31, 2026, and which party will control the House of Representatives after the November 3, 2026 midterm elections. The shutdown leg resolves using OPM’s Operating Status page, while the House control outcome depends on official election results and, if needed, the party affiliation of the elected Speaker. This event matters because it links short-term federal budget risk with the broader balance of power in Congress. Market sentiment currently implies an 81% probability for the combined event outcome, though that is not a guarantee. The forecast remains active through the 2026 House election timeline, with the shutdown deadline arriving first and the House control question extending to Election Day and any required post-election certification. For prediction market participants, it is a clear event prediction tied to U.S. politics, Congress, government shutdown risk, and midterm election odds.",156505.683316,{"id":699,"title":700,"slug":701,"category":8,"subcategory":82,"tags":702,"probability":18,"createdAt":703,"updatedAt":704,"resolutionDate":53,"description":705,"summary":706,"volume1wk":707,"featured":169},"41359","Israeli parliament dissolved by...?","israeli-parliament-dissolved-by-october-31",[82,355,9,342],"2026-05-30T10:42:58.768Z","2026-06-16T10:02:10.509Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the sitting Israeli Knesset (Israel's parliament), as of this market's inception, is dissolved between September 3 and October 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market is official information from the government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.","Israeli parliament dissolved by...? is a political prediction market centered on whether Israel’s sitting Knesset will be dissolved between September 3 and October 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. The forecast asks traders to judge the expected outcome of a specific constitutional and legislative event in Israeli politics, with the market resolving to Yes only if the parliament is formally dissolved within that window. Because dissolution can affect government stability, elections, coalition negotiations, and policy timing, the event carries significance for both domestic politics and wider Middle East watchers. The primary resolution source is official information from the government of Israel, with credible reporting used as a backup. As of the latest market data, the probability is 0%, suggesting market sentiment strongly favors the Knesset remaining intact through the deadline. The event is categorized under Politics, World, and Middle East, making it relevant for users tracking political forecast odds and event prediction trends in Israel.",72739.73654000001,{"id":709,"title":710,"slug":711,"category":8,"subcategory":110,"tags":712,"probability":713,"createdAt":714,"updatedAt":715,"resolutionDate":716,"description":717,"summary":718,"volume1wk":719,"featured":169},"143633","US strike on Colombia by...?","us-strike-on-colombia-by-january-31",[110,14,9,16],27.5,"2026-05-30T10:43:03.073Z","2026-06-16T10:02:04.513Z","2026-01-31T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Colombia is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purposes of this market, a qualifying \"strike\" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.\n\nA strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.\n\nMissiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a \"Yes\" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage.\n\nActions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.\n\nAny strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.\n\nThis market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date\u002Ftime of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to \"No\" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.","US strike on Colombia by...? is a political prediction market asking whether a United States-initiated drone, missile, or air strike will be announced or credibly reported on Colombian soil by January 31. The forecast covers a narrow definition of qualifying action: the strike must physically impact land territory in Colombia, including rivers, lakes, or ports, and must be carried out by U.S. military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives. Intercepted missiles or drones, as well as artillery, ground incursions, naval shelling, and cyberattacks, do not count toward a Yes resolution.\n\nThis event matters because it tests market sentiment around U.S.-Colombia tensions, broader geopolitics, and the likelihood of direct U.S. military action in the region. The prediction market currently implies about an 18.5% probability of a qualifying strike, suggesting traders see the outcome as possible but not the base case. Resolution depends on a consensus of credible reporting, and the market will remain open until two days after the resolution time unless the date can no longer be confirmed.",52064.24978899999,{"id":721,"title":722,"slug":723,"category":8,"subcategory":9,"tags":724,"probability":727,"createdAt":728,"updatedAt":729,"resolutionDate":86,"description":730,"summary":731,"volume1wk":732,"featured":169},"143642","US strike on Mexico by...?","us-strike-on-mexico-by",[9,14,110,16,44,725,726],"Mexico Cartel War","mencho",13.5,"2026-05-30T10:42:52.999Z","2026-06-16T10:02:04.216Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Mexico is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purposes of this market, a qualifying \"strike\" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.\n\nA strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.\n\nMissiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a \"Yes\" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage.\n\nActions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.\n\nAny strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.\n\nThis market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date\u002Ftime of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to \"No\" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.","US strike on Mexico by...? is a political prediction market asking whether a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on Mexican territory will be announced or credibly reported by the market’s deadline. The forecast is narrowly defined: a qualifying strike must physically impact land territory within Mexico, including rivers, lakes, or ports, while intercepted missiles, surface-to-air exchanges, artillery fire, naval shelling, ground incursions, and cyberattacks do not count. The event draws on geopolitics, foreign policy, and the broader Mexico cartel war context, with references in the market tags to Trump, Venezuela, and Mencho reflecting the uncertainty around regional escalation. The market opened on 2026-01-04 and runs through 2026-12-31 ET, with a two-day post-deadline window for credible reporting before resolution. Current market probability is about 19.5%, suggesting traders see the odds of a confirmed US strike on Mexico as relatively low, though not negligible. As with any prediction market, sentiment can shift quickly if official statements or credible media reports emerge, and the final outcome will depend on whether the event meets the market’s strict resolution criteria.",179210.21347599995,{"id":734,"title":735,"slug":736,"category":8,"subcategory":82,"tags":737,"probability":228,"createdAt":738,"updatedAt":739,"resolutionDate":86,"description":740,"summary":741,"volume1wk":742,"featured":169},"73871","Who will Trump meet with in 2026?","who-will-trump-meet-with-in-2026",[82,14,9,16],"2026-05-30T10:42:57.714Z","2026-06-16T10:02:03.397Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the listed individual meets with Donald Trump between January 1, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA meeting is defined as any encounter where both listed individual and Trump are present and interact with each other in person.\n\nThe resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.","“Who will Trump meet with in 2026?” is a political prediction market focused on whether a listed individual will meet with Donald Trump at any point between January 1 and December 31, 2026, by 11:59 PM ET. The market resolves to Yes only if both Trump and the named person are present and interact in person, with the outcome determined by a consensus of credible reporting. As a World and Politics event, it sits at the intersection of geopolitics, diplomacy, and domestic political forecasting, making it relevant to traders tracking high-profile U.S. political contacts.\n\nThe forecast asks a simple question in plain language: will Trump hold an in-person meeting with each candidate on the list during the resolution period? Market sentiment can shift as reporting, public appearances, or travel schedules change, and the prediction market is designed to price those odds over time. Current market probability stands at 100%, though that should be read as the present market expectation rather than a guarantee of the final result. The event is active through the end of 2026, giving traders a long window for event prediction and updated probability discovery.",88681.24067300001,{"id":744,"title":745,"slug":746,"category":8,"subcategory":12,"tags":747,"probability":18,"createdAt":748,"updatedAt":749,"resolutionDate":53,"description":750,"summary":751,"volume1wk":752,"featured":169},"435151","JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by...?","jd-vance-diplomatic-meeting-with-iran-by-876",[12,13,14,15,9,16,11],"2026-05-30T10:43:07.582Z","2026-06-16T10:02:01.182Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if there is a diplomatic meeting between JD Vance as representative of the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nTo qualify, JD Vance must be physically present at the meeting and actively participate as a negotiator representing the United States.\n\nA diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. \n\nBrief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.\n\nThe meeting must be in-person and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.\n\nThe resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.","JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by...? is a political prediction market asking whether JD Vance will take part in an in-person diplomatic meeting with Iran as a representative of the United States by the market’s deadline. The contract resolves to Yes only if Vance is physically present, actively negotiates on behalf of the U.S., and the meeting is publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Indirect diplomacy through authorized mediators can count, but brief encounters, remote calls, or informal talks do not. This event matters because any verified U.S.-Iran diplomatic contact involving a senior American official would be a meaningful signal in geopolitics and Iran policy, with implications for broader market sentiment around U.S.-Iran relations and potential ceasefire or negotiation scenarios. The forecast window runs from the market’s start on May 1, 2026 through the June 30, 2026 deadline at 11:59 PM ET. Current market probability is 0%, indicating traders see the expected outcome as unlikely at present, though that can change as new diplomatic reporting emerges.",55512.79554100001,{"id":754,"title":755,"slug":756,"category":8,"subcategory":9,"tags":757,"probability":761,"createdAt":762,"updatedAt":763,"resolutionDate":53,"description":764,"summary":765,"volume1wk":766,"featured":169},"379876","Who will attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?","who-will-attend-the-next-us-x-iran-diplomatic-meeting",[9,13,12,15,16,14,758,11,759,760,17],"Kushner","rubio","Witkoff",5.35,"2026-05-30T10:43:01.991Z","2026-06-16T10:02:00.500Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the listed individual attends the next diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nA diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.\n\nBrief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not qualify as diplomatic meetings.\n\nThe meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.\n\nAttendance refers to the listed individual being physically present and actively participating in negotiations at the meeting.\n\nIf the next diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran takes place over multiple days, attendance at any part of the meeting will qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.","\"Who will attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?\" is a Politics prediction market tracking which named individual will physically attend the next in-person diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran. The market resolves \"Yes\" only if the listed person is present and actively participating in negotiations at that meeting, with attendance eligible even if the talks extend across multiple days. Remote calls, brief encounters, and unofficial interactions do not count under the event rules. The forecast matters because any confirmed US-Iran diplomatic contact can signal shifts in geopolitics, ceasefire discussions, or broader negotiations involving figures such as Vance, Rubio, Witkoff, Kushner, or Trump-linked diplomatic channels, depending on which person is listed in the market. The prediction window runs through June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, so traders will be watching official statements and credible media reports for confirmation. Current market probability is about 6.55%, suggesting low odds that the specified individual will attend, according to prevailing market sentiment in this prediction market.",184072.4821600002,{"id":768,"title":769,"slug":770,"category":8,"subcategory":65,"tags":771,"probability":772,"createdAt":773,"updatedAt":774,"resolutionDate":775,"description":776,"summary":777,"volume1wk":778,"featured":169},"421398","Ceará Governor Election Winner","cear-governor-election-winner",[65,483,189,9,63],21.5,"2026-06-16T10:08:26.710Z","2026-06-16T10:02:00.438Z","2026-10-04T06:00:00.000Z","The Ceará gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.\n\nTemporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.\n\nIf the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThis market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br\u002Feleicoes\u002Fresultados-eleicoes).","Ceará Governor Election Winner is a political prediction market on who will win the governor’s race in Brazil’s Ceará state. The election is scheduled for October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026 if no candidate wins a majority in the first round. The market will resolve to the candidate confirmed as the winner, based on credible reporting and, if needed, official results from Brazil’s Superior Electoral Court (TSE). Temporary or interim governors appointed before the election do not count toward the outcome.\n\nThis event matters because it tracks market sentiment around one of Brazil’s major global elections and gives traders a forecast of the expected outcome well ahead of election day. As of the latest update, the market-implied probability for the leading outcome is 21.5%, suggesting uncertainty remains and no candidate is close to being a clear favorite. The event is active now and runs through the election date, making it a relevant forecast for political analysts, election watchers, and prediction market participants following Brazil politics and global elections.",15724.987955,{"id":780,"title":781,"slug":782,"category":8,"subcategory":9,"tags":783,"probability":784,"createdAt":785,"updatedAt":786,"resolutionDate":86,"description":787,"summary":788,"volume1wk":789,"featured":169},"148292","Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?","will-the-us-acquire-any-part-of-greenland-in-2026",[9,241,14,16,242],11.5,"2026-05-30T10:42:59.631Z","2026-06-16T10:02:00.206Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States acquires control of any land territory that is part of Greenland by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nOnly the transfer of sovereignty, or the acquisition of primary or exclusive jurisdiction or control qualifies.\n\n1. Transfer of Sovereignty: This will qualify if a binding agreement or legal instrument results in a defined area of Greenland coming under the formal sovereignty of the U.S. (e.g., incorporated as a U.S. state, territory, possession, or other U.S. political classification), even if the effective date occurs after the market deadline.\n\n2. Acquisition of Primary or Exclusive Jurisdiction or Control: This will qualify if a binding agreement or legal instrument establishes a defined area in Greenland in which the U.S. has primary or exclusive jurisdiction or control over the territory, such that the ordinary legal authority of Denmark and Greenland do not apply,except by U.S. permission. Such agreements or instruments will qualify even if the effective date occurs after the market deadline. \n\n3. Use of Force: If the U.S. acquires primary or exclusive jurisdiction or control over a defined area of Greenland through force, this will also qualify. \n\nAn announcement will qualify only if it is accompanied by or consists of a binding agreement or legal instrument  (e.g., enacted legislation, a signed treaty, the signed text of an agreement, or an executive action implementing such an agreement) that unambiguously creates a transfer of sovereignty, or primary or exclusive jurisdiction or control,  even if this transfer or acquisition takes effect after the market deadline. \n\nNon-binding statements, negotiations, proposals, frameworks, or MOUs will not alone qualify. Basing rights, access agreements, SOFA-type arrangements, COFA-type arrangements, commercial concessions, or other permissions to use land (including leases) will not alone qualify. Any qualifying U.S. jurisdiction or control  in Greenland that existed at market creation will not count as new qualifying control.\n\nExamples of qualifying events include but are not limited to treaty or piece of legislation that makes any portion of Greenland a U.S. territory or possession, even if the handover date for such territory or possession is later); or, a Guantánamo-style arrangement establishing a defined zone in Greenland under exclusive or primary U.S. jurisdiction and control, where Denmark and Greenland’s ordinary legal authority does not apply except by U.S. permission.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States, Denmark, and Greenland; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.\n","Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? is a political prediction market focused on whether the United States will obtain control of any land territory in Greenland before December 31, 2026. The market resolves “Yes” only if there is a binding transfer of sovereignty or a formal legal instrument granting the U.S. primary or exclusive jurisdiction or control over a defined area; non-binding talks, proposals, leases, or access agreements do not qualify. This makes the event a clear forecast about geopolitics, Greenland, Denmark, and U.S. territorial policy rather than a broad headline about diplomacy.\n\nThe outcome matters because any qualifying change would require official action from the U.S., Denmark, or Greenland, or credible reporting confirming such an arrangement. Market sentiment currently assigns about a 15.5% probability to a “Yes” outcome, suggesting traders see the event as possible but still unlikely. With the market active from January 2026 through year-end 2026, the prediction is closely tied to any treaty, legislation, or executive action that could alter sovereignty or jurisdiction in Greenland.",42994.27957100001,{"id":791,"title":792,"slug":793,"category":8,"subcategory":254,"tags":794,"probability":18,"createdAt":795,"updatedAt":796,"resolutionDate":716,"description":797,"summary":798,"volume1wk":799,"featured":169},"140376","María Corina Machado enters Venezuela by...?","will-mara-corina-machado-enter-venezuela-by-january-31",[254,9,14,110],"2026-05-30T10:42:48.978Z","2026-06-16T10:01:58.237Z","If María Corina Machado visits Venezuela between market creation and Janaury 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Yes\". Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purpose of this market, a \"visit\" is defined as María Corina Machado physically entering the terrestrial territory of Venezuela. Whether or not María Corina Machado enters Venezuelan airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.","María Corina Machado enters Venezuela by...? is a political prediction market asking whether the Venezuelan opposition leader will physically enter the terrestrial territory of Venezuela during the defined window, from market creation through January 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. A visit only counts if Machado enters Venezuelan land territory; flying over Venezuelan airspace or traveling through maritime territory does not satisfy the resolution criteria. The market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting, making news coverage the key source for traders tracking the outcome. This event matters because Machado is a prominent figure in Venezuelan politics, and any confirmed return to the country could carry significant political and symbolic implications. As of the latest market data, the probability is 0%, reflecting current market sentiment and the odds implied by active traders, though that forecast can change if conditions or reporting shift. The market sits in the Politics category under the Trump-Machado subcategory and is searchable under terms such as political forecast, political probability, and event prediction.",461199.24858000013,{"id":801,"title":802,"slug":803,"category":8,"subcategory":14,"tags":804,"probability":18,"createdAt":806,"updatedAt":807,"resolutionDate":406,"description":808,"summary":809,"volume1wk":810,"featured":169},"226019","Kash Patel out by...?","kash-patel-out-by",[14,9,805],"Trump Cabinet","2026-05-30T10:43:00.968Z","2026-06-16T10:01:57.090Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if Kash Patel ceases to be the Director of the Federal Bureau of Investigation for any period of by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn announcement of Patel's resignation\u002Fremoval before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to \"Yes\", regardless of when the announced resignation\u002Fremoval goes into effect.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.","Kash Patel out by...? is a political prediction market asking whether Kash Patel will cease to be Director of the Federal Bureau of Investigation for any period by the market’s specified deadline. The event resolves to “Yes” if Patel resigns or is removed before the end date, and it can also resolve immediately on an official announcement from the Trump administration, even if the change takes effect later. If neither occurs, the market resolves to “No.”\n\nThis forecast matters because it tracks the stability of a high-profile Trump administration appointment and reflects market sentiment around personnel changes in the FBI and broader Trump Cabinet politics. Traders are watching official statements and credible reporting for signals that could shift the expected outcome. As of the latest data, the market probability is 0%, indicating no current priced expectation of Patel leaving by the listed timing, though prediction market odds can change quickly as new information emerges.\n\nThe event began on February 23, 2026 and remains active, making it a live political forecast for anyone following Trump-era governance and appointment risk.",30683.828392999996,{"id":812,"title":813,"slug":814,"category":8,"subcategory":805,"tags":815,"probability":816,"createdAt":817,"updatedAt":818,"resolutionDate":86,"description":819,"summary":820,"volume1wk":821,"featured":169},"531004","JD Vance out as VP by...?","jd-vance-out-as-vp-by",[805,9,14],0.4,"2026-05-30T10:42:58.378Z","2026-06-16T10:01:55.603Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if JD Vance ceases to be Vice-President of the United States for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn announcement of Vance's resignation\u002Fremoval before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to \"Yes\", regardless of when the announced resignation\u002Fremoval goes into effect.\n\nIf the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be official information from JD Vance and the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.","JD Vance out as VP by...? is a political prediction market asking whether JD Vance will cease to serve as Vice-President of the United States at any point before the market’s end date. The event is framed around official action, resignation, removal, detention, or any other circumstance that permanently or temporarily prevents him from fulfilling the vice-presidential role. If an announcement of resignation or removal is made before the deadline, the market can resolve to “Yes” even if the change takes effect later. The forecast runs from its start date on May 27, 2026, through December 31, 2026, ET, making the timing of any political developments especially important. This market sits within the Politics category and the Trump Cabinet subcategory, with traders watching for shifts in market sentiment tied to the Trump administration and vice-presidential succession risk. Current market probability is about 1.25%, suggesting the expected outcome is strongly leaning toward “No,” though prediction market odds can change quickly as new information emerges. The resolution source is official U.S. government information and JD Vance statements, with credible reporting also allowed if needed.",12149.613737,{"id":823,"title":824,"slug":825,"category":8,"subcategory":578,"tags":826,"probability":18,"createdAt":830,"updatedAt":831,"resolutionDate":832,"description":833,"summary":834,"volume1wk":835,"featured":169},"16263","Macron out by...?","macron-out-in-2025",[578,9,827,82,828,829],"Macron","2025 Predictions","resign","2026-05-30T10:43:03.249Z","2026-06-16T10:01:54.977Z","2026-06-30T12:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Emmanuel Macron ceases to be President of France for any length of time between January 2 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET (inclusive). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf Macron departs from office before the expiry date, the market should resolve immediately.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from the government of France, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.","\"Macron out by...?\" is a political prediction market on whether Emmanuel Macron will cease to be President of France for any length of time during 2025. The event resolves to Yes if Macron leaves office between January 2 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, and No if he remains president through that deadline. If he departs before the end date, the market resolves immediately. The primary resolution source is official information from the French government, supplemented by credible reporting when needed. This event matters because it tracks leadership continuity in France, one of Europe’s most important political systems, and it has attracted attention from traders watching French politics, resignation risk, and broader world events. The current market probability is 0%, indicating that traders assign no active odds to a near-term exit at the time of the latest data. As a forecast, the market reflects sentiment around Macron’s tenure rather than a guarantee of outcome, making it a useful signal for political event prediction and France-specific search queries.",56336.42900999999,{"id":837,"title":838,"slug":839,"category":8,"subcategory":256,"tags":840,"probability":841,"createdAt":842,"updatedAt":843,"resolutionDate":716,"description":844,"summary":845,"volume1wk":846,"featured":169},"140724","Nicolás Maduro released from custody by...?","nicols-maduro-released-from-custody-by",[256,9,110,16,14],9.5,"2026-05-30T10:42:46.095Z","2026-06-16T10:01:54.867Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Nicolás Maduro is released from custody by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf Nicolás Maduro is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to \"Yes\".\n\nIf Nicolás Maduro is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to \"Yes\".\n\nTransporting Nicolás Maduro to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to \"Yes\". \n\nTemporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.","Nicolás Maduro released from custody by...? is a political prediction market tracking whether Nicolás Maduro will be released from custody by the listed deadline of 11:59 PM ET on January 31, 2026. The event asks traders to forecast a specific legal and geopolitical outcome: whether Maduro leaves state custody, including release on house arrest, parole, bond, or another condition that no longer keeps him in correctional custody. A transfer to another prison, court, or hospital within the custody system does not count as a release, and temporary outings for testimony also would not qualify. This makes the market dependent on official government or corrections sources, though credible reporting may also be used in resolution. Current market probability is about 12.5%, indicating low but non-zero expectations that the outcome will occur. The market sits at the intersection of politics, Venezuela, geopolitics, and broader event prediction activity, with odds shaped by evolving market sentiment and any new developments involving Maduro’s detention status.",1506434.8549220022,{"id":848,"title":849,"slug":850,"category":8,"subcategory":14,"tags":851,"probability":228,"createdAt":852,"updatedAt":853,"resolutionDate":854,"description":855,"summary":856,"volume1wk":857,"featured":169},"43352","Who will Trump endorse?","who-will-trump-endorse",[14,599,9],"2026-05-30T10:43:17.046Z","2026-06-16T10:01:54.794Z","2026-11-04T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve according to the candidate Donald Trump announces that he will vote for or endorses for the listed election.\n\nIf Donald Trump does not announce an endorsement by the day before the scheduled election at 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be official information from Donald Trump or one of his representatives, or a consensus of credible reporting of Donald Trump's endorsement.","Who will Trump endorse? is a political prediction market centered on whether Donald Trump will publicly announce an endorsement for the listed election and, if so, which candidate he will support. The market resolves based on official information from Trump or his representatives, or on a consensus of credible reporting of his endorsement. If no endorsement is announced by the day before the scheduled election at 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to \"No.\" \n\nThis event matters because a Trump endorsement can shape campaign narratives, media coverage, and voter expectations in a closely watched election cycle. Traders are forecasting the expected outcome by weighing Trump’s statements, campaign signals, and broader market sentiment around the race. The current market probability is 100%, indicating the market is fully priced toward an endorsement outcome being recognized by the contract rules, though that does not guarantee any specific candidate will be named. \n\nThe prediction market is active from September 12, 2025 through November 4, 2026, giving participants a long runway to assess political developments, endorsement timing, and election-day deadlines.",10243.581407,{"id":859,"title":860,"slug":861,"category":8,"subcategory":9,"tags":862,"probability":18,"createdAt":864,"updatedAt":865,"resolutionDate":53,"description":866,"summary":867,"volume1wk":868,"featured":169},"128933","Will Tim Walz resign by...?","will-tim-walz-resign-by",[9,14,863],"Minnesota Unrest","2026-05-30T10:42:49.722Z","2026-06-16T10:01:54.510Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Tim Walz announces he has resigned or will resign as Governor of Minnesota by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nIf it becomes impossible for Tim Walz to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to \"No.\"\n\nFor this market to resolve to \"Yes,\" it is only necessary that Tim Walz announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government or the government of Minnesota; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.","\"Will Tim Walz resign by...?\" is a political prediction market asking whether Tim Walz will announce that he has resigned, or will resign, as Governor of Minnesota by the listed deadline. The market resolves to Yes only if he makes a resignation announcement by the cutoff; if no such announcement occurs, it resolves to No. The rules also state that if resignation becomes impossible for reasons such as removal from office by other means, the market will resolve to No. For resolution, the primary sources are official information from the U.S. federal government or the government of Minnesota, with credible reporting used as backup.\n\nThis event matters because it tracks political stability and leadership continuity in Minnesota, with traders pricing the expected outcome based on public statements, official developments, and broader market sentiment. As a political forecast, it sits within the Politics category and has attracted measurable attention, reflected in recent volume and open interest. The current market probability is 0%, indicating no active expectation of a resignation announcement at this time. The event runs through June 30, 2026 ET, giving traders a defined window for event prediction and odds to adjust as news develops.",373954.4286179999,{"id":870,"title":871,"slug":872,"category":8,"subcategory":9,"tags":873,"probability":875,"createdAt":876,"updatedAt":877,"resolutionDate":878,"description":879,"summary":880,"volume1wk":881,"featured":169},"591973","Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?","strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-july-15",[9,874,11,15,16,12],"Strait of Hormuz",38.5,"2026-06-16T10:07:55.917Z","2026-06-16T10:01:54.263Z","2026-07-15T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and July 15, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nDaily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on\u002Froll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.\n\nThis market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.\n\nRevisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for July 15, 2026, however, will not be considered.\n\nIn case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https:\u002F\u002Fportwatch.imf.org\u002Fpages\u002Fcb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.","Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? is a political prediction market focused on whether shipping activity through the key Gulf chokepoint rebounds to a 7-day moving average of at least 60 transit calls before the July 15, 2026 deadline. The forecast relies on IMF Portwatch’s “Arrivals of Ships” data for the Strait of Hormuz, which counts container, dry bulk, roll-on\u002Froll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. For this market to resolve Yes, IMF Portwatch must publish a qualifying moving average at or above the threshold within the specified period; otherwise it resolves No. The market matters because the Strait of Hormuz is a critical route for global energy and trade flows, so changes in traffic can reflect geopolitical risk, especially around Iran, U.S.-Iran tensions, and ceasefire-related developments. As of the latest update, traders assign roughly 38.5% probability to a Yes outcome, suggesting market sentiment currently leans toward traffic not fully normalizing by the deadline. The event is active from June 13, 2026 through July 15, 2026, and resolution is based strictly on IMF Portwatch data.",537678.1516649999,{"id":883,"title":884,"slug":885,"category":8,"subcategory":9,"tags":886,"probability":713,"createdAt":887,"updatedAt":888,"resolutionDate":384,"description":889,"summary":890,"volume1wk":891,"featured":169},"97497","Oklahoma Governor Republican Primary Winner","oklahoma-governor-republican-primary-winner",[9,63,67,325,623,327,405,624],"2026-05-30T10:43:05.293Z","2026-06-16T10:01:52.609Z","This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Oklahoma, scheduled to take place on June 16, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off.\n\nIf no 2026 Oklahoma Gubernatorial Republican Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.”\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Oklahoma Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.","Oklahoma Governor Republican Primary Winner is a political prediction market tracking who will win the Republican Primary for Governor of Oklahoma. The market is forecasting the overall winner of the primary scheduled for June 16, 2026, including any second round or runoff if one is required. If no 2026 Oklahoma Gubernatorial Republican Primary takes place, the market resolves to “Other.” The official resolution source is the first announcement of results from the Oklahoma Republican Party, although overwhelming credible reporting may also be used. \n\nAs of the latest market data, traders are assigning a 11% probability to the event outcome currently priced in the market, offering a snapshot of market sentiment rather than a guarantee. Interest in the event reflects broader political forecasting around Oklahoma elections, Republican primary dynamics, and gubernatorial contest positioning. For users following election prediction markets, this listing provides a focused event prediction tied to the state’s primary calendar and the expected outcome for Republican voters in the 2026 governor race.",15650.892685,{"id":893,"title":894,"slug":895,"category":8,"subcategory":63,"tags":896,"probability":899,"createdAt":900,"updatedAt":901,"resolutionDate":902,"description":903,"summary":904,"volume1wk":905,"featured":169},"97465","New York Governor Republican Primary Winner","new-york-governor-republican-primary-winner",[63,9,67,325,897,405,327,898],"New York Primary","June 23 Primaries",1,"2026-06-16T10:08:29.408Z","2026-06-16T10:01:52.035Z","2026-06-23T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of New York, scheduled to take place on June 23, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off.\n\nIf no 2026 New York Gubernatorial Republican Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.”\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the New York Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.","New York Governor Republican Primary Winner is a political prediction market tracking who will win the 2026 Republican primary for Governor of New York, scheduled for June 23, 2026. The market resolves to the overall primary winner, including any possible second round or run-off, and would settle to “Other” if no contest is held. Resolution is based first on the New York Republican Party’s official results, though strong consensus reporting may also be used.\n\nFor traders following elections and primaries, this event measures the expected outcome of a key statewide race in New York politics. It matters because the Republican nominee can shape the broader gubernatorial contest and offers a signal of party strength heading into the general election. As of the latest update, the market probability is 1, indicating very strong market sentiment around the current expected outcome, though prediction market odds can change as the primary approaches and new information emerges.\n\nThis listing is relevant for political forecast tracking, election analysis, and June 23 primaries coverage.",12960.679890000009,{"id":907,"title":908,"slug":909,"category":8,"subcategory":9,"tags":910,"probability":911,"createdAt":912,"updatedAt":913,"resolutionDate":86,"description":914,"summary":915,"volume1wk":916,"featured":169},"143691","Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?","will-the-us-invade-cuba-in-2026",[9,110,16,111],24.5,"2026-05-30T10:42:55.304Z","2026-06-16T10:01:51.886Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Cuban land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Cuba or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.","Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? is a political prediction market focused on whether the United States will begin a military offensive intended to establish control over any part of Cuban land territory by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. The market resolves to “Yes” only if credible sources show such an invasion or offensive; otherwise it resolves to “No.” In this context, the definition of sovereign territory also accounts for land de facto controlled by either Cuba or the United States at market creation.\n\nThis event matters because it sits at the intersection of U.S. foreign policy, geopolitics, and Caribbean security. Traders are effectively forecasting the expected outcome of a major escalation between the U.S. and Cuba, with market sentiment reflecting how likely such a confrontation appears over the 2026 timeframe. As of the latest data, the market probability is about 22.5%, suggesting the event is viewed as possible but far from the base case.\n\nThe prediction window opened on January 4, 2026 and runs through year-end, making this a live event prediction with updates likely to track diplomatic and military developments.",137325.40111699997,{"id":918,"title":919,"slug":920,"category":8,"subcategory":863,"tags":921,"probability":922,"createdAt":923,"updatedAt":924,"resolutionDate":86,"description":925,"summary":926,"volume1wk":927,"featured":169},"145985","Insurrection Act invoked by...?","insurrection-act-invoked-by",[863,14,9],1.85,"2026-05-30T10:42:57.580Z","2026-06-16T10:01:51.804Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Donald Trump officially invokes the Insurrection Act of 1807 by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purposes of this market, \"invoke\" means that the President formally announces the use of the Insurrection Act as legal authority for deploying active-duty U.S. military forces or federalizing the National Guard in response to civil disorder, insurrection, or rebellion.\n\nThe resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.\n","\"Insurrection Act invoked by...?\" is a political prediction market asking whether Donald Trump will officially invoke the Insurrection Act of 1807 by the listed deadline of 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026. The market resolves to Yes only if Trump formally announces the act as legal authority for deploying active-duty U.S. military forces or federalizing the National Guard in response to civil disorder, insurrection, or rebellion; otherwise it resolves to No. This event sits in the Politics category under the Minnesota Unrest subcategory, reflecting the broader debate over federal response options and unrest-related authority. As a prediction market, it is tracking trader sentiment on a specific constitutional and political outcome, with current implied probability near 1.85%, suggesting the expected outcome is still overwhelmingly No. Market participants are effectively pricing the odds that an official invocation will occur before the end-date deadline. The resolution will rely on a consensus of credible reporting, making accurate public announcements and official statements the key signals for this event prediction.",86645.87423299995,{"id":929,"title":930,"slug":931,"category":8,"subcategory":932,"tags":933,"probability":934,"createdAt":935,"updatedAt":936,"resolutionDate":86,"description":937,"summary":938,"volume1wk":939,"featured":169},"73123","Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027?","lee-jae-myung-arrested-before-2027","South Korea",[932,82,9],10.75,"2026-06-16T10:08:12.626Z","2026-06-16T10:01:48.554Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Leader of the Democratic Party of Korea Lee Jae-myung is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA qualifying arrest\u002Fdetention includes:\n* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)\n* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant\n* Being formally booked or processed following detention\n* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station\n* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney\n* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring\n\nThe following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest\u002Fdetention\n* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed\n* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest\n* Being named in an indictment without arrest\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.","Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027? is a political prediction market focused on whether the leader of the Democratic Party of Korea will be arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The event covers a range of qualifying outcomes, including physical custody, formal booking, voluntary surrender on an arrest warrant, house arrest, or electronic monitoring. It does not resolve to Yes if an arrest warrant is merely issued or if he is only questioned, interviewed, or indicted without detention. This forecast matters because Lee Jae-myung is a major figure in South Korea politics, and any arrest or detention could have significant implications for the country’s political landscape and party leadership. As of the latest market data, traders are pricing the probability of a Yes outcome at about 10.75%, suggesting market sentiment leans toward No while still assigning some chance of an arrest before the deadline. The primary resolution source will be official law enforcement information, with credible reporting potentially used if needed.",39914.741561999974,{"id":941,"title":942,"slug":943,"category":8,"subcategory":9,"tags":944,"probability":947,"createdAt":948,"updatedAt":949,"resolutionDate":86,"description":950,"summary":951,"volume1wk":952,"featured":169},"246821","Edi Rama out as Albania PM in 2026?","edi-rama-out-as-albania-pm-in-2026",[9,945,946,16],"Albania","prime minister",19.5,"2026-06-16T10:08:11.490Z","2026-06-16T10:01:48.228Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if Edi Rama ceases to be the Prime Minister of Albania for any period of time between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn announcement of Rama's resignation\u002Fremoval before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to \"Yes\", regardless of when the announced resignation\u002Fremoval goes into effect.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be official information from Edi Rama and the Albanian government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.","Edi Rama out as Albania PM in 2026? is a political prediction market asking whether Edi Rama will cease to serve as Prime Minister of Albania at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026. The forecast resolves to Yes if Rama resigns, is removed, or otherwise stops holding the office for any period during the market window; an official announcement of resignation or removal would also settle the event as Yes, even if the change takes effect later. If none of those outcomes occurs by the deadline, the market resolves to No. The resolution source is official information from Edi Rama and the Albanian government, with credible reporting also allowed if needed. As of the latest update, the market probability is about 19.5%, suggesting traders currently see a relatively low chance of a change in Albania’s leadership before year-end. This makes the event relevant for watchers of Albanian politics, geopolitics, and broader political forecast markets, where shifting market sentiment can reflect expectations about government stability and succession risk.",43841.455503,{"id":954,"title":955,"slug":956,"category":8,"subcategory":9,"tags":957,"probability":959,"createdAt":960,"updatedAt":961,"resolutionDate":53,"description":962,"summary":963,"volume1wk":964,"featured":169},"496260","Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by...?","ex-cuba-leader-raul-castro-in-us-custody-by",[9,111,14,16,958],"Diaz-Canel",3,"2026-05-30T10:42:50.273Z","2026-06-16T10:01:46.900Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if Raul Castro is taken into U.S. government custody at any point by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nRaul Castro will be considered taken into U.S. government custody if U.S. government personnel (including military, CIA, personnel of another agency, or contractors acting under direct U.S. government authority) physically detain, arrest, capture, or otherwise assume physical custodial control of Raul Castro, regardless of location or duration.\n\nVisits, interactions with U.S. government personnel, or Raul Castro’s presence in U.S. spaces (including vessels, bases, facilities, or meetings) in a voluntary, non-detained capacity will not qualify. A voluntary surrender to U.S. personnel in which Raul Castro submits to U.S. custody, however, will qualify.\n\nCustody that is carried out by non-U.S. entities (including allied or partner forces) will not qualify unless U.S. personnel are physically present and themselves assume custodial control of Raul Castro, or unless a subsequent transfer into U.S. custody occurs.\n\nThe resolution sources for this market will be official information from the U.S. government and a consensus of credible reporting.","“Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by...?” is a political prediction market asking whether Raul Castro will be taken into U.S. government custody by June 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. The forecast is straightforward: traders are pricing the chance that U.S. personnel, including military, intelligence, or other authorized agents acting under direct U.S. authority, physically detain, arrest, capture, or otherwise assume custody of Castro. A voluntary surrender to U.S. custody would also count, while brief contact, travel, or presence in U.S. facilities without detention would not. This event sits at the intersection of Cuba, U.S. politics, and geopolitics, with tags referencing Trump and Diaz-Canel, which helps explain the market’s broader diplomatic and security context. As of the latest market data, the implied probability is about 13.2%, suggesting traders view the expected outcome as unlikely but not impossible. Resolution will rely on official U.S. government information and credible reporting, making this a clear event prediction for anyone tracking political forecast markets and custody-related odds.",23872.204420999995,{"id":966,"title":967,"slug":968,"category":8,"subcategory":355,"tags":969,"probability":509,"createdAt":971,"updatedAt":972,"resolutionDate":86,"description":973,"summary":974,"volume1wk":975,"featured":169},"73147","Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027?","israel-and-lebanon-normalize-relations-before-2027",[355,82,970,9,16,342,48],"Lebanon","2026-06-16T10:08:30.394Z","2026-06-16T10:01:40.483Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if both Israel and Lebanon officially announce the establishment of diplomatic relations by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israel and the Lebanon, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.","Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027? is a political prediction market focused on whether the two countries will officially announce diplomatic relations by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The event asks traders to forecast a specific geopolitical outcome in the Middle East: a formal normalization of ties between Israel and Lebanon, not just informal contact or media speculation. Resolution depends primarily on official statements from Israel and Lebanon, though credible reporting may also be considered if needed.\n\nThis market matters because normalization between Israel and Lebanon would mark a significant shift in regional diplomacy and could affect broader Israel, Lebanon, and Middle East geopolitical expectations. As of the latest market data, the probability is 27%, suggesting traders see a relatively low but meaningful chance of the expected outcome. The market opened on November 5, 2025, and runs through the end of 2026, giving participants a long horizon to assess event prediction developments, official announcements, and changing market sentiment. For search engines, this event sits at the intersection of politics, Israel, Lebanon, and geopolitics, making it relevant to users tracking political forecast odds and diplomatic risk.",12154.544774,{"id":977,"title":978,"slug":979,"category":8,"subcategory":9,"tags":980,"probability":126,"createdAt":984,"updatedAt":985,"resolutionDate":986,"description":987,"summary":988,"volume1wk":989,"featured":169},"100229","Who will close Warner Bros. acquisition?","who-will-close-warner-bros-acquisition",[9,981,982,983],"Tech","Big Tech","Warner Bros","2026-05-30T10:43:17.993Z","2026-06-16T10:01:38.421Z","2027-06-30T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve according to the first entity that acquires control of Warner Bros. Discovery's studios and streaming businesses by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. \n\nTransactions that involve only Warner Bros. Discovery's linear television networks, news channels, or other non-studio, non-streaming assets, without also transferring control of its studios and streaming businesses, will not qualify.\n\nAnnouncements of non-finalized arrangements — including, the currently announced Netflix agreement to acquire Warner Bros. Discovery’s studios and streaming businesses — will not qualify.\n\nIf no entity acquires control of Warner Bros. Discovery's studios and streaming businesses by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"None by June 30 2027\". \n\nResolution will be based on by a consensus of reporting.","Who will close Warner Bros. acquisition? is a prediction market focused on which entity, if any, will first acquire control of Warner Bros. Discovery’s studios and streaming businesses. The forecast matters because the market is specifically tied to a completed transfer of those core assets, not to partial deals involving linear television networks, news channels, or other non-studio holdings. Under the rules, only a finalized acquisition that changes control of the studios and streaming businesses will qualify; if no qualifying deal closes by June 30, 2027 at 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to “None by June 30 2027.”\n\nCurrent market sentiment puts the probability at about 15%, suggesting traders see a qualifying close as possible but not yet likely. The event is especially relevant to observers following Warner Bros., Warner Bros. Discovery, and the broader media and tech landscape, including the currently announced but non-finalized Netflix agreement mentioned in the market description. As a prediction market, this event reflects evolving odds and event prediction around a major corporate transaction deadline rather than a confirmed outcome.",26468.464381000005,{"id":991,"title":992,"slug":993,"category":8,"subcategory":9,"tags":994,"probability":126,"createdAt":996,"updatedAt":997,"resolutionDate":140,"description":998,"summary":999,"volume1wk":1000,"featured":169},"452161","Next Prime Minister of Romania?","next-prime-minister-of-romania-732",[9,80,995,189,65,63,49],"Bolojat","2026-05-30T10:42:49.190Z","2026-06-16T10:01:38.354Z","This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Romania by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.\n\nTo count for resolution, the individual must be formally appointed by the President of Romania and receive a vote of confidence from Parliament, resulting in the official formation of a new government. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister who does not receive a parliamentary vote of confidence will not count toward the resolution of this market.\n\nIf no such Prime Minister takes office by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Romania; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.","Next Prime Minister of Romania? is a political prediction market forecasting who will next officially assume the office of Prime Minister of Romania by December 31, 2027. The event resolves only when an individual is formally appointed by the President of Romania, wins a vote of confidence in Parliament, and the new government is officially formed; interim or caretaker prime ministers do not count. If no qualifying prime minister takes office by the deadline, the market resolves to “Other.”\n\nThis event matters because Romania’s premiership can shift quickly in response to coalition politics, parliamentary support, and government stability. Traders in this prediction market are effectively pricing the expected outcome of Romania’s next government formation, with market sentiment reflecting which figures are most likely to secure both presidential appointment and parliamentary backing. Current market probability places the outcome at about 15%, indicating the market is assigning relatively low odds to the leading consensus outcome at this time.\n\nThe market opened on May 5, 2026 and remains active through the forecast period, with official Government of Romania information serving as the primary resolution source, supplemented by credible reporting when needed.",295339.691383,{"id":1002,"title":1003,"slug":1004,"category":8,"subcategory":9,"tags":1005,"probability":330,"createdAt":1008,"updatedAt":1009,"resolutionDate":1010,"description":1011,"summary":1012,"volume1wk":1013,"featured":169},"101766","South Carolina Governor Republican Primary Winner","south-carolina-governor-republican-primary-winner-784",[9,63,67,325,405,327,1006,1007],"South Carolina Primary","June 9 Primaries","2026-05-30T10:42:57.101Z","2026-06-16T10:01:38.299Z","2026-06-09T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of South Carolina, scheduled to take place on June 9, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off.\n\nIf no 2026 South Carolina Gubernatorial Republican Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.”\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the South Carolina Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.","South Carolina Governor Republican Primary Winner is a political prediction market tracking who will win the Republican Primary for Governor of South Carolina. The forecast resolves to the overall primary winner, including any potential second round or run-off, with the market scheduled around the June 9, 2026 primary date. If no 2026 South Carolina gubernatorial Republican primary takes place, the market resolves to “Other.” Resolution will rely first on the official results announced by the South Carolina Republican Party, though broad credible consensus may also be considered.\n\nAs a prediction market, it reflects trader expectations about the expected outcome rather than a guaranteed result. Current market probability sits near 5%, indicating a relatively low chance assigned to the referenced outcome at this stage. The event is relevant for election watchers, primary elections coverage, and political forecast analysis, especially for those following South Carolina politics and the Republican Primary. Market sentiment can shift as the election approaches, with odds updating based on campaign developments, polling, and reporting.",203445.094147,{"id":1015,"title":1016,"slug":1017,"category":8,"subcategory":9,"tags":1018,"probability":535,"createdAt":1022,"updatedAt":1023,"resolutionDate":53,"description":1024,"summary":1025,"volume1wk":1026,"featured":169},"257445","Will Netanyahu be pardoned by June 30?","will-netanyahu-be-pardoned-by-june-30",[9,1019,355,1020,16,14,1021],"Bibi","benjamin netanyahu","Herzog","2026-06-16T10:08:31.350Z","2026-06-16T10:01:36.366Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or other formal grant of clemency from Israeli President Isaac Herzog for any charges by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the Israeli government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.","Will Netanyahu be pardoned by June 30? is a political prediction market asking whether Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will receive a presidential pardon, commutation, or other formal grant of clemency from Israeli President Isaac Herzog by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The market resolves to “Yes” only if official Israeli government information, or a broad consensus of credible reporting, confirms that Netanyahu is pardoned for any charges before the deadline; otherwise it resolves to “No.”\n\nThis event matters because it sits at the intersection of Israeli politics, geopolitics, and legal accountability, with potential implications for Netanyahu’s political future and for broader market sentiment around Israeli leadership. As a political prediction market, it reflects traders’ event prediction on the expected outcome rather than any certainty. The current market probability is about 5.15%, suggesting the odds of a pardon by the deadline remain low. The market opened on March 9, 2026 and remains active through the June 30 end date, making it a closely watched political forecast for observers following Benjamin Netanyahu, Isaac Herzog, and Israeli pardon proceedings.",11624.491129000004,{"id":1028,"title":1029,"slug":1030,"category":8,"subcategory":9,"tags":1031,"probability":330,"createdAt":1033,"updatedAt":1034,"resolutionDate":333,"description":1035,"summary":1036,"volume1wk":1037,"featured":169},"80071","Alabama Republican Senate Primary Winner","alabama-republican-senate-primary-winner",[9,63,67,325,326,1032,327,329],"Alabama Primary","2026-05-30T10:43:18.994Z","2026-06-16T10:01:34.953Z","This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Alabama.\n\nIf no 2026 Alabama Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Alabama Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.","Alabama Republican Senate Primary Winner is a political prediction market focused on who will win the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Alabama. The event asks traders to forecast the outcome of the 2026 Alabama Republican Senate primary, with resolution tied to the first official results announced by the Alabama Republican Party or, if needed, credible consensus reporting. If no 2026 primary takes place, the market resolves to \"Other.\" The market opens on November 13, 2025 and is scheduled around the May 19, 2026 primary deadline. As a political forecast, this event reflects market sentiment on the likely nominee and the expected outcome in one of Alabama’s key election contests. Current market probability is around 5%, suggesting the leading outcome is still viewed as relatively uncertain and subject to change as the race develops. This listing is relevant for election watchers, primary elections coverage, and analysts tracking Senate Primary odds, Alabama Primary dynamics, and broader political prediction market activity.",11163.726513999996,{"id":1039,"title":1040,"slug":1041,"category":8,"subcategory":9,"tags":1042,"probability":1044,"createdAt":1045,"updatedAt":1046,"resolutionDate":1047,"description":1048,"summary":1049,"volume1wk":1050,"featured":169},"382767","California Governor Primary Election: First Place","california-governor-primary-election-first-place",[9,67,63,125,1043],"June 2 Primaries",98.8,"2026-05-30T10:42:59.158Z","2026-06-16T10:01:30.463Z","2026-06-02T00:00:00.000Z","The non-partisan primary election for Governor of California is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. The top two candidates in this election by number of votes won will advance to the general election for Governor of California.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the most valid votes in this primary election.\n\nThe named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.\n\nIf the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to “Other.”\n\nThis market will resolve based on the results of the primary election for Governor of California as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of California, specifically the Office of the Secretary of State.","California Governor Primary Election: First Place is a political prediction market focused on who will receive the most valid votes in California’s non-partisan gubernatorial primary on June 2, 2026. The market tracks the expected outcome for the first-place finisher, which is important because the top two candidates advance to the general election for Governor of California. If two candidates are tied on valid votes, the market resolves by alphabetical order of the candidates’ last names, and if the result is still unclear, it would default to Other after December 31, 2026. Current market probability stands at 64.5%, indicating traders see a moderately strong chance for the leading candidate to finish first, though the forecast remains subject to election results. Resolution will rely on credible reporting and, if needed, the official results from the California Secretary of State. This event sits at the intersection of politics, primaries, and elections, making it relevant for election watchers following California governor odds, political forecast signals, and prediction market sentiment ahead of the primary.",32119.522875,{"id":1052,"title":1053,"slug":1054,"category":8,"subcategory":14,"tags":1055,"probability":1059,"createdAt":1060,"updatedAt":1061,"resolutionDate":1062,"description":1063,"summary":1064,"volume1wk":1065,"featured":169},"592360","US government rescinds Claude Fable 5 foreigner ban by…?","us-government-rescinds-claude-fable-5-foreigner-ban-by-20260613202427937",[14,1056,1057,982,981,1058],"Claude","AI","anthropic",48,"2026-06-16T10:08:19.671Z","2026-06-16T10:01:28.068Z","2026-07-01T03:59:00.000Z","On June 12, 2026, the US government directed Anthropic to suspend access to Fable 5 for foreign nationals, whether inside or outside the United States (see: https:\u002F\u002Fwww.anthropic.com\u002Fnews\u002Ffable-mythos-access).\n\nThis market will resolve to \"Yes\" if President Trump, the US government, or Anthropic publicly and officially announce that this directive has been rescinded, waived, modified, or otherwise lifted such that blocking public access to Claude Fable 5 for all non-US nationals is no longer directed by the US federal government by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nA qualifying announcement must clearly indicate that guidance from the United States federal government no longer directs Anthropic to block public access to Claude Fable 5 for all foreign nationals. A partial lifting of the restriction will qualify, provided it allows renewed public access for at least some non-US nationals. Anthropic announcements that Fable 5 will be released for public access, without announcing qualifying US government guidance, will not count.\n\nAnnouncements must specifically relate to the model Fable 5. Qualifying announcements may include that revised US government guidance allows public access to Fable 5 for non-US nationals with additional model safety restrictions; however, if such restrictions cause Anthropic to release the model under a different name, this will not qualify.\n\nThe relevant access must be public; adjusted guidance from the United States government that access to Fable 5 may be restored for select companies will not qualify.\n\nWritten public statements from Donald Trump, including posts from his personal Truth Social account, will count. Videos posted on his social media accounts will also qualify.\n\nInformal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source will be official statements from President Trump, the US government, and Anthropic; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.","US government rescinds Claude Fable 5 foreigner ban by…? asks whether the Trump administration, the US government, or Anthropic will officially lift the directive that forced Anthropic to suspend public access to Fable 5 for non-US nationals. This political prediction market centers on a technology and AI policy dispute with direct implications for Big Tech access rules, model deployment, and government oversight of advanced artificial intelligence. The market resolves “Yes” only if a public, qualifying announcement confirms that the federal guidance has been rescinded, waived, modified, or otherwise lifted so that public access to Claude Fable 5 is no longer blocked for all foreign nationals. Partial relief can qualify if it restores access for at least some non-US users, but unofficial reports or releases under a different model name do not count. Traders currently assign the event about a 48% probability, suggesting a closely contested forecast. The market is active through July 1, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET, and sentiment will likely shift with any official Trump statement, US government update, or Anthropic announcement.",23759.886177999993,{"id":1067,"title":1068,"slug":1069,"category":8,"subcategory":9,"tags":1070,"probability":18,"createdAt":1071,"updatedAt":1072,"resolutionDate":86,"description":1073,"summary":1074,"volume1wk":1075,"featured":169},"145253","Delcy Rodríguez out as leader of Venezuela by...?","delcy-rodrguez-out-as-leader-of-venezuela-by",[9,82,16,256,110],"2026-05-30T10:43:00.609Z","2026-06-16T10:01:18.844Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if Delcy Rodríguez ceases to be Acting President\u002Fleader of Venezuela for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn announcement of Delcy Rodríguez's resignation\u002Fremoval before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to \"Yes\", regardless of when the announced resignation\u002Fremoval goes into effect.\n\nIf the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be official information from Delcy Rodríguez and the government of Venezuela; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.","Delcy Rodríguez out as leader of Venezuela by...? is a political prediction market asking whether Delcy Rodríguez will cease to serve as Acting President or leader of Venezuela at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026. The forecast resolves to Yes if she resigns, is removed, detained, or otherwise permanently prevented from carrying out the duties of the role during the market window. It also resolves to Yes if an official resignation or removal is announced before the deadline, even if the change takes effect later. The market draws on official information from Delcy Rodríguez and the government of Venezuela, with credible reporting also considered for resolution. This event matters because leadership changes in Venezuela can signal shifts in domestic power, succession dynamics, and broader geopolitical stability. As a political forecast, it is being watched by traders for changes in market sentiment around Venezuela and the Maduro-aligned leadership structure. At the time of the latest update, the market probability is 0%, indicating no current expectation of a leadership exit, though odds can change quickly as new developments emerge.",58908.10357100002,{"id":1077,"title":1078,"slug":1079,"category":8,"subcategory":9,"tags":1080,"probability":330,"createdAt":1083,"updatedAt":1084,"resolutionDate":53,"description":1085,"summary":1086,"volume1wk":1087,"featured":169},"52166","Where will Trump and Putin meet next?","where-will-trump-and-putin-meet-next-584",[9,14,16,1081,175,82,1082,599],"Russia","putin","2026-05-30T10:42:56.070Z","2026-06-16T10:01:15.032Z","This market will resolve according to the location of the next meeting between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin between September 30 and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.\n\nThis market will resolve to \"No meeting by June 30\" if no qualifying meeting occurs during this market's timeframe.\n\nA meeting is defined as any encounter where Putin and Trump are all present and interact with each other in person.\n\nAn exchange of words, handshake, direct conversation, or other clear personal interaction between the named individuals will qualify as a meeting. Merely standing in proximity, making eye contact, or being present in the same room or event without direct interaction will not qualify.\n\nFor this market, Gulf states are defined as the six members of the Gulf Cooperation Council (Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates).\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.","Where will Trump and Putin meet next? is a political prediction market asking traders to forecast the location of the next in-person meeting between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin. The market resolves based on credible reporting and will close out with \"No meeting by June 30\" if no qualifying encounter happens between September 30, 2025 and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. A meeting requires direct personal interaction, such as a handshake, conversation, or other clear exchange, not just being in the same place. If a meeting does occur, the location will determine the outcome, including possibilities tied to Gulf states as defined by the six GCC members. This event matters because any Trump-Putin meeting could signal changes in Russia, Ukraine, and broader geopolitics, making it a closely watched event prediction for political analysts and market participants. Current market probability stands at about 35%, indicating traders see a meaningful chance of a qualifying meeting before the deadline, but far from certainty. The forecast reflects live market sentiment, odds, and the expected outcome as the resolution window approaches.",165390.76748299995,{"id":1089,"title":1090,"slug":1091,"category":8,"subcategory":1092,"tags":1093,"probability":18,"createdAt":1099,"updatedAt":1100,"resolutionDate":86,"description":1101,"summary":1102,"volume1wk":1103,"featured":169},"255195","Iran leadership change by...?","iran-leadership-change-by","Mojtaba",[1092,1094,9,1095,16,12,46,1096,1097,1098],"ayatollah","Iran Regime","Mojtaba Khamenei","Khamenei out","Mojtaba out","2026-05-30T10:42:46.955Z","2026-06-16T10:01:14.512Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nMojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.\n\nAn official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a \"Yes\" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. ","Iran leadership change by...? is a political prediction market asking whether Mojtaba Khamenei will cease to be the de facto leader of Iran before the listed deadline. The event focuses on a potential leadership change within Iran’s ruling structure and resolves to “Yes” if Mojtaba Khamenei is removed from power, detained, or otherwise prevented from acting as de facto leader during the market’s timeframe. An official announcement of resignation or removal also counts, even if the departure takes effect later. The market runs from March 9, 2026 through December 31, 2026 (ET), giving traders a long window to assess geopolitical developments, regime stability, and credible reporting on Iran’s leadership dynamics. As a political forecast, it sits within the broader category of Iran regime and geopolitics events, where market sentiment can shift quickly on news about the Khamenei family, succession, or internal power changes. Current market probability is 0%, indicating no priced expectation of a leadership change at the moment, though odds can move as new information emerges.",419365.38465900003,{"id":1105,"title":1106,"slug":1107,"category":8,"subcategory":9,"tags":1108,"probability":1110,"createdAt":1111,"updatedAt":1112,"resolutionDate":53,"description":1113,"summary":1114,"volume1wk":1115,"featured":169},"448836","Romanian parliament dissolved by July 31?","romanian-parliament-dissolved-by-july-31",[9,1109,80],"Bolojan",5.55,"2026-06-16T10:08:28.641Z","2026-06-16T10:01:09.852Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the sitting Romanian Chamber of Deputies and Senate are dissolved by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market is official information from the government of Romania, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.\n","Romanian parliament dissolved by July 31? is a political prediction market focused on whether Romania’s sitting Chamber of Deputies and Senate will be dissolved before the deadline of 11:59 PM ET on July 31. The event asks traders to forecast a specific constitutional and parliamentary outcome, with resolution based primarily on official information from the government of Romania and, if needed, a consensus of credible reporting. This makes the market a timely indicator of political uncertainty around Romanian governance and the direction of any parliamentary reset. As of the latest update, market probability is about 5.55%, suggesting traders currently see dissolution by the deadline as an unlikely expected outcome. The market opened on May 4, 2026 and remains active through the end date of June 30, 2026, giving participants a limited window to adjust positions as news develops. Tags such as Politics, Romania, and Bolojan reflect the key entities and context shaping market sentiment. For readers following event prediction, the listing captures how odds, probability, and trader expectations evolve around a narrowly defined political deadline.",13752.842795999999,{"id":1117,"title":1118,"slug":1119,"category":8,"subcategory":187,"tags":1120,"probability":1121,"createdAt":1122,"updatedAt":1123,"resolutionDate":129,"description":1124,"summary":1125,"volume1wk":1126,"featured":169},"101101","ACA credits extended & House Winner 2026?","aca-credits-extended-house-winner-2026",[187,691,62,63,65,9,14,68],81.5,"2026-05-30T10:43:02.897Z","2026-06-16T10:01:07.737Z","This market will resolve according to the combined outcome of whether enhanced ACA premium tax credits will be extended in 2025 (https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket.com\u002Fevent\u002Fenhanced-aca-premium-tax-credits-extended-in-2025?) and according to which party will win the House in 2026 (https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket.com\u002Fevent\u002Fwhich-party-will-win-the-house-in-2026?).\n\nThe rules and resolution criteria are as follows: \n\n1. Enhanced ACA premium tax credits extended in 2025?\nAffordable Care Act (ACA) enhanced premium tax credits are set to expire at the end of 2025 if not extended by the federal government.\n\nThis market will resolve according to whether a bill extending the enhanced ACA premium tax credits beyond 2025 is signed into federal law by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. \n\nA qualifying bill may extend the enhanced ACA premium tax credits in any form, including shorter extensions, phased-down benefits, or narrowed eligibility, as long as the bill clearly continues enhanced premium tax credits that have wider eligibility and\u002For lower required income contributions relative to baseline ACA premium tax credits that would otherwise apply after 2025.\n\nA bill replacing the ACA enhanced premium tax credits with an alternative form of healthcare subsidy, such as direct cash payments to a health savings account, will not qualify.\n\nIf the bill is signed into law before 2026, it will qualify to resolve this market, regardless of when it takes effect.\n\nThe primary source of resolution will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.\n\n2. Which party will win the House in 2026?\nThis market will resolve according to the party that controls the House of Representatives following the 2026 U.S. House elections scheduled for November 3, 2026.\n\nHouse control is defined as having more than half of the voting members of the U.S. House of Representatives.\n\nIf the outcome of this election is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will remain open until the Speaker of the House is selected following the 2026 U.S. general election, at which point it will resolve to the party the Speaker is affiliated with at the time of their election to that position. If the elected Speaker does not caucus with any listed party this market will resolve “Other”.\n\nDetermination of which party controls the House after the 2026 U.S. House elections will be based on a consensus of credible reporting, or if there is ambiguity, final federal and\u002For state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2026 election results.\n\n","ACA credits extended & House Winner 2026? is a political prediction market that combines two related forecasts: whether enhanced Affordable Care Act (ACA) premium tax credits will be extended in 2025, and which party will control the U.S. House of Representatives after the 2026 midterms. The first part resolves if a qualifying federal bill extending the enhanced ACA subsidies is signed into law by December 31, 2025, while the second part resolves based on the outcome of the November 3, 2026 House election and, if needed, the eventual Speaker selection. Together, the event links healthcare policy and congressional control, making it relevant to traders tracking U.S. elections, Congress, and midterm market sentiment. Current market probability is about 82%, suggesting traders see the combined outcome as relatively likely, though not certain. The forecast reflects both legislative action in 2025 and the expected outcome of the 2026 House race, with resolution relying on official U.S. government sources and credible reporting where needed.",50753.140772,{"id":1128,"title":1129,"slug":1130,"category":8,"subcategory":9,"tags":1131,"probability":461,"createdAt":1133,"updatedAt":1134,"resolutionDate":86,"description":1135,"summary":1136,"volume1wk":1137,"featured":169},"578061","Pedro Castillo pardoned in 2026?","pedro-castillo-pardoned-in-2026",[9,63,1132],"Peru Election","2026-06-16T10:08:28.780Z","2026-06-16T10:01:06.984Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Pedro Castillo receives a presidential pardon, commutation, right of grace, humanitarian pardon, or other formal grant of clemency from the President of Peru by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM PET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA qualifying grant of clemency must be officially issued by the President of Peru and must relieve Castillo, in whole or in part, from criminal liability, criminal proceedings, conviction, sentence, or criminal penalties in connection with any criminal case.\n\nA qualifying grant of clemency will resolve this market to \"Yes\" regardless of whether it is later challenged, revoked, annulled, or declared invalid.\n\nCourt rulings, acquittals, dismissals, legislative amnesties, prosecutorial decisions, prison transfers, releases from custody, or other actions that do not involve a formal presidential grant of clemency will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source will be official information from the Government of Peru. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. ","Pedro Castillo pardoned in 2026? is a political prediction market tracking whether Peru’s President will issue a formal pardon, commutation, right of grace, humanitarian pardon, or another qualifying act of clemency for former president Pedro Castillo by December 31, 2026. The market resolves to Yes only if an official presidential grant of clemency is issued by the Government of Peru and it relieves Castillo from criminal liability, proceedings, conviction, sentence, or penalties tied to a criminal case. Court rulings, acquittals, dismissals, legislative amnesties, and other non-presidential actions do not count. As of the latest update, traders are pricing the event at about 15.5% probability, suggesting a relatively low but still active chance of pardon before the deadline. Market sentiment may shift with developments in Peru’s politics, judicial process, or presidential statements, making this a closely watched political forecast for observers following Peru election-related outcomes and broader questions of executive clemency.",13614.493685000003,{"id":1139,"title":1140,"slug":1141,"category":8,"subcategory":9,"tags":1142,"probability":330,"createdAt":1143,"updatedAt":1144,"resolutionDate":1062,"description":1145,"summary":1146,"volume1wk":1147,"featured":169},"577696","Elon Musk # tweets in June 2026?","elon-musk-tweets-in-june-2026-20260608234701516",[9,393,150,201],"2026-06-16T10:08:14.181Z","2026-06-16T10:01:06.399Z","This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X during the month of June 2026.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.\n\nReplies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https:\u002F\u002Fx.com\u002Felonmusk\u002Fstatus\u002F1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.\n\nDeleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).\n\nCommunity reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https:\u002F\u002Fxtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking \"Export Data\". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.","Elon Musk # tweets in June 2026? is a prediction market about how many times Elon Musk (@elonmusk) will post on X during June 2026. The forecast resolves using the tracker’s “Post Counter” on xtracker.polymarket.com, and only main feed posts, quote posts, and reposts count; replies do not count toward the total. Deleted posts can still count if they are captured by the tracker, while community reposts are excluded unless the tracker counts them. The market opens on June 9, 2026 and runs through the end of the month, with resolution expected after June 30, 2026 based on the final tracked post total. Traders are using this event prediction to gauge the expected outcome for Musk’s posting activity, making it a closely watched social-media and politics-related forecast. Current market probability stands at about 5%, suggesting the market sentiment currently favors a low-count outcome, though that can change as posting activity increases or new information emerges.",34457.588796000004,{"id":1149,"title":1150,"slug":1151,"category":8,"subcategory":9,"tags":1152,"probability":1154,"createdAt":1155,"updatedAt":1156,"resolutionDate":86,"description":1157,"summary":1158,"volume1wk":1159,"featured":169},"143723","Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026?","will-the-us-invade-a-latin-american-country-in-2026",[9,14,110,16,1153],"Macro Geopolitics",26,"2026-06-16T10:08:28.686Z","2026-06-16T10:01:05.604Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the land territory of Latin American country by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by the relevant country or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.\n\nQualifying Latin America countries: Belize, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Guyana, Paraguay, Peru, Suriname, Uruguay, Venezuela,, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Haiti\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.","Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026? is a political prediction market tracking the risk of a U.S. military offensive against any qualifying Latin American state before December 31, 2026. The market resolves to Yes if the United States begins an operation intended to establish control over part of another country’s land territory by the end of the year, with resolution based on a consensus of credible sources. Countries covered include Mexico, Venezuela, Colombia, Cuba, Haiti, and other Latin American nations listed in the market rules. This event matters because it sits at the intersection of geopolitics, U.S. foreign policy, and regional security in Latin America. As of the latest market data, traders assign a 26% probability to the expected outcome, suggesting the market sentiment leans toward No but leaves meaningful odds of escalation. The market opens on January 4, 2026 and runs through the end of 2026, making it a year-long geopolitical forecast watched closely by political observers and prediction market participants.",13677.562730999998,{"id":1161,"title":1162,"slug":1163,"category":8,"subcategory":9,"tags":1164,"probability":69,"createdAt":1165,"updatedAt":1166,"resolutionDate":1167,"description":1168,"summary":1169,"volume1wk":1170,"featured":169},"574486","Will Trump pardon SBF by July 31?","will-trump-pardon-sbf-by-july-31-20260608235339562",[9,14,532,534],"2026-06-16T10:08:14.581Z","2026-06-16T10:01:01.676Z","2026-07-31T19:59:00.000Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Sam Bankman-Fried receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf it becomes impossible for Trump to issue a federal pardon, commutation, or reprieve within this market's timeframe, it may immediately resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe primary resolution source for whether a person is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.","Will Trump pardon SBF by July 31? is a political prediction market asking whether Donald Trump will grant Sam Bankman-Fried a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The market resolves to \"Yes\" only if an official federal act of clemency occurs within that deadline; otherwise it settles to \"No.\" If it becomes impossible for Trump to issue relief in time, the market may resolve early to \"No.\"\n\nThis event matters because it sits at the intersection of politics, crypto, and crypto legal risk, with traders watching both the legal status of Sam Bankman-Fried and any credible reporting or official US government information that could affect the outcome. As a prediction market, it reflects market sentiment around a rare and highly specific presidential action rather than a policy decision.\n\nCurrent market probability is about 2.65%, suggesting low odds that traders expect a pardon or similar reprieve before the July 31 deadline. The forecast is narrow and time-sensitive, making the event a useful signal for event prediction watchers following Trump, SBF, and broader political probability markets.",33543.575287999985,{"id":1172,"title":1173,"slug":1174,"category":8,"subcategory":1175,"tags":1176,"probability":911,"createdAt":1177,"updatedAt":1178,"resolutionDate":1062,"description":1179,"summary":1180,"volume1wk":1181,"featured":169},"580461","Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30?","will-trump-praise-allah-again-by-june-30-20260610152457610","Islam",[1175,9,14,12],"2026-06-16T10:08:10.172Z","2026-06-16T10:01:01.143Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Donald Trump publicly praises Allah between the time of its creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA qualifying statement includes any remark by Donald Trump that expresses approval, admiration, respect, or reverence for the Islamic deity referred to as Allah. This can include direct praise (e.g., “Praise be to Allah”) or equivalent positive descriptions (“Allah is great”).\n\nGeneral neutrality or polite diplomatic language (e.g., “Yes, I posted about Allah”) will not qualify unless it contains a clear element of positive evaluation.\n\nAny written, verbal, or recorded usage will qualify.\n\nText or speech contained in images, memes, or videos posted by Trump on his official social media accounts will qualify if it clearly expresses approval, admiration, respect, or reverence toward Allah, provided that any additional posted commentary from Trump does not explicitly contradict that sentiment. Media contained only within reposts or posts quoted by Trump will not qualify.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be public statements from Donald Trump.","Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? is a political prediction market tracking whether Donald Trump will publicly make a qualifying statement praising Allah before June 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. The market resolves to Yes only if Trump himself uses written, spoken, or recorded language that clearly expresses approval, admiration, respect, or reverence toward Allah; neutral references or polite mentions do not count. Public statements from Trump’s official social media accounts may also qualify if the sentiment is explicit.\n\nThis event matters because it sits at the intersection of politics, Islam, and U.S. public discourse, where wording and context are central to resolution. Traders in the prediction market are effectively forecasting the expected outcome based on Trump’s public messaging and any relevant remarks made during the active window, which runs from June 10, 2026 to July 1, 2026, 3:59 AM UTC.\n\nCurrent market probability is about 24.5%, indicating traders see a Yes outcome as possible but not the base case. As with any event prediction, sentiment can shift quickly if Trump comments publicly before the deadline.",48528.50208299981,{"id":1183,"title":1184,"slug":1185,"category":8,"subcategory":9,"tags":1186,"probability":1187,"createdAt":1188,"updatedAt":1189,"resolutionDate":522,"description":1190,"summary":1191,"volume1wk":1192,"featured":169},"564318","Khamenei # posts June 9 - June 16, 2026?","khamenei-of-tweets-june-9-june-16-2026",[9,201],98.7,"2026-06-16T10:08:25.110Z","2026-06-16T10:00:57.925Z","This market will resolve according to the number of times Khamenei (@khamenei_ir), posts on X between June 9, 12:00 PM ET and June 16, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.\n\nReplies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.\n\nDeleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the \"Post Counter\" figure for posts found at https:\u002F\u002Fxtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking \"Export Data\". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.","Khamenei # posts June 9 - June 16, 2026? is a political prediction market asking how many times Khamenei (@khamenei_ir) will post on X during the June 9, 12:00 PM ET to June 16, 2026, 12:00 PM ET window. The forecast is based on the tracker’s \"Post Counter\" figure at xtracker.polymarket.com, with only main feed posts, quote posts, and reposts counting; replies do not count unless they appear on the main feed. Deleted posts still count if captured by the tracker. This event matters because it measures official social-media activity from a major political figure, which traders use to gauge communication patterns, public messaging, and market sentiment around the account’s posting frequency. The current market probability is 98.7%, suggesting traders see a very high likelihood of the expected outcome, though it is not guaranteed. As a tweet market in the Politics category, the event prediction is tied to a clearly defined deadline and resolution source, making it straightforward for prediction market participants to follow the odds and assess the final post count.",16925.379055,{"id":1194,"title":1195,"body":1196,"description":2518,"extension":2519,"meta":2520,"navigation":25,"path":2521,"seo":2522,"stem":2523,"__hash__":2524},"content\u002F_includes\u002Fcategory_politics.md","Political Prediction Markets",{"type":1197,"value":1198,"toc":2494},"minimark",[1199,1204,1212,1234,1244,1255,1258,1277,1283,1286,1290,1297,1304,1321,1327,1332,1388,1394,1397,1424,1426,1430,1436,1439,1493,1513,1515,1519,1525,1528,1544,1548,1594,1597,1614,1616,1620,1631,1634,1637,1662,1668,1670,1674,1680,1683,1703,1707,1752,1758,1760,1764,1770,1773,1800,1803,1847,1850,1864,1866,1870,1876,1879,1890,1894,1935,1938,1952,1954,1958,1961,1965,1968,1979,1982,1990,1992,1996,1999,2010,2012,2020,2022,2026,2029,2040,2042,2050,2052,2056,2059,2070,2072,2080,2082,2086,2089,2100,2102,2110,2112,2116,2119,2190,2200,2202,2206,2209,2212,2229,2232,2266,2272,2274,2278,2281,2284,2289,2299,2303,2312,2318,2320,2324,2327,2331,2334,2338,2341,2345,2348,2352,2355,2357,2361,2364,2367,2384,2390,2392,2396,2400,2403,2405,2409,2412,2414,2418,2421,2437,2439,2443,2449,2452,2455,2457,2461,2467,2474,2488],[1200,1201,1203],"h1",{"id":1202},"political-prediction-markets-global-political-forecasts","Political Prediction Markets & Global Political Forecasts",[1205,1206,1207],"p",{},[1208,1209],"img",{"alt":1210,"src":1211},"Political prediction markets forecasting illustration","\u002Fimages\u002Fpolitics.png",[1205,1213,1214,1215,1219,1220,1233],{},"Political events shape the global economy, financial markets, international relations, and public policy. Understanding ",[1216,1217,1218],"strong",{},"political probabilities","—such as ",[1216,1221,1222,1227,1228,1232],{},[1223,1224,1226],"a",{"href":1225},"\u002F","election outcomes",", ",[1223,1229,1231],{"href":1230},"\u002Fpolitics","geopolitical conflicts",", and leadership changes","—has become essential for analysts, investors, journalists, and researchers.",[1205,1235,1236,1239,1240,1243],{},[1216,1237,1238],{},"Political prediction markets"," transform collective intelligence into measurable probabilities for future political\nevents. By aggregating information from thousands of participants, these markets produce ",[1216,1241,1242],{},"real-time forecasts for\nelections, geopolitical crises, economic policy decisions, and leadership transitions",".",[1205,1245,1246,1247,1250,1251,1254],{},"Unlike traditional polling or expert commentary, ",[1223,1248,1249],{"href":1225},"prediction markets"," use ",[1216,1252,1253],{},"market incentives and probability pricing"," to estimate the likelihood of real-world outcomes.",[1205,1256,1257],{},"These systems now forecast events including:",[1259,1260,1261,1265,1268,1271,1274],"ul",{},[1262,1263,1264],"li",{},"Election winners",[1262,1266,1267],{},"Government leadership changes",[1262,1269,1270],{},"Geopolitical conflicts",[1262,1272,1273],{},"Global economic crises",[1262,1275,1276],{},"International policy decisions",[1205,1278,1279,1280,1243],{},"Prediction markets therefore represent one of the most powerful tools available for ",[1216,1281,1282],{},"global political forecasting and\nprobability analysis",[1284,1285],"hr",{},[1200,1287,1289],{"id":1288},"what-are-political-prediction-markets","What Are Political Prediction Markets?",[1205,1291,1292,1293,1296],{},"A ",[1216,1294,1295],{},"political prediction market"," is a marketplace where participants trade contracts representing the probability that\na political event will occur.",[1205,1298,1299,1300,1303],{},"Each contract represents a ",[1216,1301,1302],{},"future political outcome",", such as:",[1259,1305,1306,1309,1312,1315,1318],{},[1262,1307,1308],{},"Who will win the next election",[1262,1310,1311],{},"Whether a geopolitical conflict will occur",[1262,1313,1314],{},"Which political leader will take office",[1262,1316,1317],{},"Whether a government will collapse",[1262,1319,1320],{},"Whether a global economic crisis will happen",[1205,1322,1323,1324,1243],{},"The market price of each contract reflects the ",[1216,1325,1326],{},"collective estimate of probability",[1328,1329,1331],"h2",{"id":1330},"example-election-market","Example: Election Market",[1333,1334,1335,1351],"table",{},[1336,1337,1338],"thead",{},[1339,1340,1341,1345,1348],"tr",{},[1342,1343,1344],"th",{},"Event",[1342,1346,1347],{},"Market Price",[1342,1349,1350],{},"Implied Probability",[1352,1353,1354,1366,1377],"tbody",{},[1339,1355,1356,1360,1363],{},[1357,1358,1359],"td",{},"Candidate A wins election",[1357,1361,1362],{},"$0.62",[1357,1364,1365],{},"62%",[1339,1367,1368,1371,1374],{},[1357,1369,1370],{},"Candidate B wins election",[1357,1372,1373],{},"$0.34",[1357,1375,1376],{},"34%",[1339,1378,1379,1382,1385],{},[1357,1380,1381],{},"Other candidates",[1357,1383,1384],{},"$0.04",[1357,1386,1387],{},"4%",[1205,1389,1390,1391,1243],{},"This price discovery mechanism converts ",[1216,1392,1393],{},"crowd knowledge into political probability forecasts",[1205,1395,1396],{},"Prediction markets are widely used to estimate:",[1259,1398,1399,1404,1409,1414,1419],{},[1262,1400,1401],{},[1216,1402,1403],{},"Election odds",[1262,1405,1406],{},[1216,1407,1408],{},"Election outcome probabilities",[1262,1410,1411],{},[1216,1412,1413],{},"Next prime minister predictions",[1262,1415,1416],{},[1216,1417,1418],{},"Political crisis probabilities",[1262,1420,1421],{},[1216,1422,1423],{},"War risk forecasts",[1284,1425],{},[1200,1427,1429],{"id":1428},"why-prediction-markets-are-effective-for-political-forecasting","Why Prediction Markets Are Effective for Political Forecasting",[1205,1431,1432,1433,1243],{},"Traditional political forecasting relies on polls, expert panels, or statistical models. Prediction markets enhance\nthese methods by incorporating ",[1216,1434,1435],{},"real financial incentives and distributed information networks",[1205,1437,1438],{},"Key advantages include:",[1333,1440,1441,1451],{},[1336,1442,1443],{},[1339,1444,1445,1448],{},[1342,1446,1447],{},"Feature",[1342,1449,1450],{},"Benefit",[1352,1452,1453,1461,1469,1477,1485],{},[1339,1454,1455,1458],{},[1357,1456,1457],{},"Collective intelligence",[1357,1459,1460],{},"Aggregates information from thousands of participants",[1339,1462,1463,1466],{},[1357,1464,1465],{},"Real-time probability updates",[1357,1467,1468],{},"Markets react instantly to breaking news",[1339,1470,1471,1474],{},[1357,1472,1473],{},"Incentive alignment",[1357,1475,1476],{},"Traders profit from accurate predictions",[1339,1478,1479,1482],{},[1357,1480,1481],{},"Transparency",[1357,1483,1484],{},"Market prices clearly represent probabilities",[1339,1486,1487,1490],{},[1357,1488,1489],{},"Continuous forecasting",[1357,1491,1492],{},"Predictions update dynamically",[1205,1494,1495,1496,1499,1500,1506,1507,1243],{},"Because of these properties, prediction markets often produce ",[1216,1497,1498],{},"more accurate forecasts than traditional polling alone",". You can also see how these techniques are applied in ",[1216,1501,1502],{},[1223,1503,1505],{"href":1504},"\u002Fsports","sports prediction markets"," or ",[1216,1508,1509],{},[1223,1510,1512],{"href":1511},"\u002Fcrypto","cryptocurrency price forecasting",[1284,1514],{},[1200,1516,1518],{"id":1517},"election-prediction-markets","Election Prediction Markets",[1205,1520,1521,1522,1243],{},"One of the most widely used applications of prediction markets is ",[1216,1523,1524],{},"election forecasting",[1205,1526,1527],{},"Markets exist for elections around the world, allowing analysts to estimate:",[1259,1529,1530,1532,1535,1538,1541],{},[1262,1531,1308],{},[1262,1533,1534],{},"Political party victory probabilities",[1262,1536,1537],{},"Vote share forecasts",[1262,1539,1540],{},"Coalition formation probabilities",[1262,1542,1543],{},"Leadership succession odds",[1328,1545,1547],{"id":1546},"election-forecast-example","Election Forecast Example",[1333,1549,1550,1560],{},[1336,1551,1552],{},[1339,1553,1554,1557],{},[1342,1555,1556],{},"Candidate",[1342,1558,1559],{},"Market Probability",[1352,1561,1562,1570,1578,1586],{},[1339,1563,1564,1567],{},[1357,1565,1566],{},"Candidate A",[1357,1568,1569],{},"48%",[1339,1571,1572,1575],{},[1357,1573,1574],{},"Candidate B",[1357,1576,1577],{},"41%",[1339,1579,1580,1583],{},[1357,1581,1582],{},"Candidate C",[1357,1584,1585],{},"8%",[1339,1587,1588,1591],{},[1357,1589,1590],{},"Other",[1357,1592,1593],{},"3%",[1205,1595,1596],{},"These probabilities continuously update as new information becomes available, including:",[1259,1598,1599,1602,1605,1608,1611],{},[1262,1600,1601],{},"polling data",[1262,1603,1604],{},"campaign developments",[1262,1606,1607],{},"debates",[1262,1609,1610],{},"economic indicators",[1262,1612,1613],{},"geopolitical events",[1284,1615],{},[1200,1617,1619],{"id":1618},"who-will-win-the-next-election","Who Will Win the Next Election?",[1205,1621,1622,1623,1626,1627,1630],{},"Search interest for ",[1216,1624,1625],{},"\"who will win the next election\""," and ",[1216,1628,1629],{},"\"election probability forecast\""," has grown dramatically\nin recent years.",[1205,1632,1633],{},"Prediction markets provide a data-driven way to analyze these questions.",[1205,1635,1636],{},"Typical election prediction metrics include:",[1259,1638,1639,1643,1648,1653,1657],{},[1262,1640,1641],{},[1216,1642,1403],{},[1262,1644,1645],{},[1216,1646,1647],{},"Election probability models",[1262,1649,1650],{},[1216,1651,1652],{},"Political betting odds",[1262,1654,1655],{},[1216,1656,1408],{},[1262,1658,1659],{},[1216,1660,1661],{},"Leadership change odds",[1205,1663,1664,1665,1243],{},"These indicators allow analysts to estimate ",[1216,1666,1667],{},"the probability of election victory long before voting occurs",[1284,1669],{},[1200,1671,1673],{"id":1672},"global-political-event-forecasting","Global Political Event Forecasting",[1205,1675,1676,1677,1243],{},"Political prediction markets extend beyond elections to forecast ",[1216,1678,1679],{},"major geopolitical events",[1205,1681,1682],{},"Common market topics include:",[1259,1684,1685,1688,1691,1694,1697,1700],{},[1262,1686,1687],{},"geopolitical crises",[1262,1689,1690],{},"military conflicts",[1262,1692,1693],{},"international treaties",[1262,1695,1696],{},"government collapses",[1262,1698,1699],{},"sanctions and trade wars",[1262,1701,1702],{},"global economic disruptions",[1328,1704,1706],{"id":1705},"geopolitical-event-forecast-example","Geopolitical Event Forecast Example",[1333,1708,1709,1718],{},[1336,1710,1711],{},[1339,1712,1713,1715],{},[1342,1714,1344],{},[1342,1716,1717],{},"Estimated Probability",[1352,1719,1720,1728,1736,1744],{},[1339,1721,1722,1725],{},[1357,1723,1724],{},"Major geopolitical crisis",[1357,1726,1727],{},"28%",[1339,1729,1730,1733],{},[1357,1731,1732],{},"Global recession",[1357,1734,1735],{},"35%",[1339,1737,1738,1741],{},[1357,1739,1740],{},"Government collapse in major economy",[1357,1742,1743],{},"11%",[1339,1745,1746,1749],{},[1357,1747,1748],{},"Military conflict escalation",[1357,1750,1751],{},"19%",[1205,1753,1754,1755,1243],{},"These markets allow analysts to evaluate ",[1216,1756,1757],{},"global political risk probabilities",[1284,1759],{},[1200,1761,1763],{"id":1762},"war-probability-geopolitical-risk-forecasts","War Probability & Geopolitical Risk Forecasts",[1205,1765,1766,1767,1243],{},"Another rapidly growing category in political prediction markets involves ",[1216,1768,1769],{},"conflict probability forecasting",[1205,1771,1772],{},"Markets frequently analyze:",[1259,1774,1775,1780,1785,1790,1795],{},[1262,1776,1777],{},[1216,1778,1779],{},"China–Taiwan conflict probability",[1262,1781,1782],{},[1216,1783,1784],{},"North Korea war risk",[1262,1786,1787],{},[1216,1788,1789],{},"global conflict probability",[1262,1791,1792],{},[1216,1793,1794],{},"probability of world war",[1262,1796,1797],{},[1216,1798,1799],{},"military escalation risk",[1205,1801,1802],{},"Example forecast table:",[1333,1804,1805,1814],{},[1336,1806,1807],{},[1339,1808,1809,1812],{},[1342,1810,1811],{},"Scenario",[1342,1813,1717],{},[1352,1815,1816,1824,1832,1840],{},[1339,1817,1818,1821],{},[1357,1819,1820],{},"Regional conflict escalation",[1357,1822,1823],{},"23%",[1339,1825,1826,1829],{},[1357,1827,1828],{},"Major international military conflict",[1357,1830,1831],{},"14%",[1339,1833,1834,1837],{},[1357,1835,1836],{},"Nuclear conflict scenario",[1357,1838,1839],{},"\u003C2%",[1339,1841,1842,1845],{},[1357,1843,1844],{},"Large-scale geopolitical crisis",[1357,1846,1751],{},[1205,1848,1849],{},"These probability estimates are often monitored by:",[1259,1851,1852,1855,1858,1861],{},[1262,1853,1854],{},"geopolitical analysts",[1262,1856,1857],{},"hedge funds",[1262,1859,1860],{},"government researchers",[1262,1862,1863],{},"global risk consultancies",[1284,1865],{},[1200,1867,1869],{"id":1868},"political-leadership-prediction","Political Leadership Prediction",[1205,1871,1872,1873,1243],{},"Prediction markets also forecast ",[1216,1874,1875],{},"future political leaders",[1205,1877,1878],{},"These markets answer questions such as:",[1259,1880,1881,1884,1887],{},[1262,1882,1883],{},"Who will be the next prime minister?",[1262,1885,1886],{},"Who will become the next president?",[1262,1888,1889],{},"Which party will control government?",[1328,1891,1893],{"id":1892},"leadership-prediction-example","Leadership Prediction Example",[1333,1895,1896,1905],{},[1336,1897,1898],{},[1339,1899,1900,1902],{},[1342,1901,1556],{},[1342,1903,1904],{},"Probability",[1352,1906,1907,1914,1921,1928],{},[1339,1908,1909,1911],{},[1357,1910,1566],{},[1357,1912,1913],{},"52%",[1339,1915,1916,1918],{},[1357,1917,1574],{},[1357,1919,1920],{},"37%",[1339,1922,1923,1925],{},[1357,1924,1582],{},[1357,1926,1927],{},"9%",[1339,1929,1930,1932],{},[1357,1931,1590],{},[1357,1933,1934],{},"2%",[1205,1936,1937],{},"Leadership prediction markets are especially active during:",[1259,1939,1940,1943,1946,1949],{},[1262,1941,1942],{},"election cycles",[1262,1944,1945],{},"leadership contests",[1262,1947,1948],{},"coalition negotiations",[1262,1950,1951],{},"political crises",[1284,1953],{},[1200,1955,1957],{"id":1956},"political-prediction-markets-by-country","Political Prediction Markets by Country",[1205,1959,1960],{},"Political forecasting markets exist for many national elections and leadership transitions.",[1328,1962,1964],{"id":1963},"australia-political-prediction-markets","Australia Political Prediction Markets",[1205,1966,1967],{},"Forecasting topics include:",[1259,1969,1970,1973,1976],{},[1262,1971,1972],{},"Australia election odds",[1262,1974,1975],{},"next Australia election forecast",[1262,1977,1978],{},"Australian prime minister prediction",[1205,1980,1981],{},"More analysis:",[1259,1983,1984],{},[1262,1985,1986],{},[1223,1987,1989],{"href":1988},"\u002Fprediction-markets-australia","Prediction Markets in Australia",[1284,1991],{},[1328,1993,1995],{"id":1994},"japan-political-forecasts","Japan Political Forecasts",[1205,1997,1998],{},"Japan markets are frequently analyzed:",[1259,2000,2001,2004,2007],{},[1262,2002,2003],{},"Japan election probability",[1262,2005,2006],{},"next Japan prime minister odds",[1262,2008,2009],{},"Japan government leadership prediction",[1205,2011,1981],{},[1259,2013,2014],{},[1262,2015,2016],{},[1223,2017,2019],{"href":2018},"\u002Fprediction-markets-japan","Prediction Markets in Japan",[1284,2021],{},[1328,2023,2025],{"id":2024},"south-korea-political-predictions","South Korea Political Predictions",[1205,2027,2028],{},"South Korea prediction markets often track:",[1259,2030,2031,2034,2037],{},[1262,2032,2033],{},"South Korea election odds",[1262,2035,2036],{},"Korean presidential election predictions",[1262,2038,2039],{},"leadership change forecasts",[1205,2041,1981],{},[1259,2043,2044],{},[1262,2045,2046],{},[1223,2047,2049],{"href":2048},"\u002Fprediction-markets-korea","Prediction Markets in Korea",[1284,2051],{},[1328,2053,2055],{"id":2054},"indonesia-election-forecasts","Indonesia Election Forecasts",[1205,2057,2058],{},"Indonesia's rapidly growing forecasting community analyzes:",[1259,2060,2061,2064,2067],{},[1262,2062,2063],{},"Indonesia president election odds",[1262,2065,2066],{},"Indonesia election probability",[1262,2068,2069],{},"political forecast Indonesia",[1205,2071,1981],{},[1259,2073,2074],{},[1262,2075,2076],{},[1223,2077,2079],{"href":2078},"\u002Fprediction-markets-indonesia","Prediction Markets in Indonesia",[1284,2081],{},[1328,2083,2085],{"id":2084},"new-zealand-election-predictions","New Zealand Election Predictions",[1205,2087,2088],{},"New Zealand prediction markets track:",[1259,2090,2091,2094,2097],{},[1262,2092,2093],{},"NZ election odds",[1262,2095,2096],{},"New Zealand prime minister prediction",[1262,2098,2099],{},"election probability forecasts",[1205,2101,1981],{},[1259,2103,2104],{},[1262,2105,2106],{},[1223,2107,2109],{"href":2108},"\u002Fprediction-markets-new-zealand","Prediction Markets in New Zealand",[1284,2111],{},[1200,2113,2115],{"id":2114},"political-prediction-markets-vs-polling","Political Prediction Markets vs Polling",[1205,2117,2118],{},"Prediction markets and polling both estimate political outcomes, but they function differently.",[1333,2120,2121,2133],{},[1336,2122,2123],{},[1339,2124,2125,2127,2130],{},[1342,2126,1447],{},[1342,2128,2129],{},"Prediction Markets",[1342,2131,2132],{},"Opinion Polls",[1352,2134,2135,2146,2157,2168,2179],{},[1339,2136,2137,2140,2143],{},[1357,2138,2139],{},"Forecast method",[1357,2141,2142],{},"Market pricing",[1357,2144,2145],{},"Survey responses",[1339,2147,2148,2151,2154],{},[1357,2149,2150],{},"Updates",[1357,2152,2153],{},"Continuous",[1357,2155,2156],{},"Periodic",[1339,2158,2159,2162,2165],{},[1357,2160,2161],{},"Incentives",[1357,2163,2164],{},"Financial",[1357,2166,2167],{},"None",[1339,2169,2170,2173,2176],{},[1357,2171,2172],{},"Bias correction",[1357,2174,2175],{},"Market trading",[1357,2177,2178],{},"Sampling methods",[1339,2180,2181,2184,2187],{},[1357,2182,2183],{},"Real-time information",[1357,2185,2186],{},"High",[1357,2188,2189],{},"Limited",[1205,2191,2192,2193,2196,2197,1243],{},"Because traders incorporate ",[1216,2194,2195],{},"new information instantly",", prediction markets often adjust ",[1216,2198,2199],{},"faster than polls",[1284,2201],{},[1200,2203,2205],{"id":2204},"relationship-between-politics-economics-and-global-markets","Relationship Between Politics, Economics, and Global Markets",[1205,2207,2208],{},"Political events strongly influence financial and economic outcomes.",[1205,2210,2211],{},"Prediction markets therefore analyze interactions between:",[1259,2213,2214,2217,2220,2223,2226],{},[1262,2215,2216],{},"political elections",[1262,2218,2219],{},"central bank decisions",[1262,2221,2222],{},"interest rate changes",[1262,2224,2225],{},"inflation forecasts",[1262,2227,2228],{},"global recession probabilities",[1205,2230,2231],{},"Example economic forecast:",[1333,2233,2234,2242],{},[1336,2235,2236],{},[1339,2237,2238,2240],{},[1342,2239,1344],{},[1342,2241,1717],{},[1352,2243,2244,2250,2258],{},[1339,2245,2246,2248],{},[1357,2247,1732],{},[1357,2249,1376],{},[1339,2251,2252,2255],{},[1357,2253,2254],{},"Interest rate cuts",[1357,2256,2257],{},"57%",[1339,2259,2260,2263],{},[1357,2261,2262],{},"Economic crisis",[1357,2264,2265],{},"18%",[1205,2267,2268,2269,1243],{},"Political forecasting therefore intersects with ",[1216,2270,2271],{},"financial forecasting and macroeconomic analysis",[1284,2273],{},[1200,2275,2277],{"id":2276},"political-forecasting-and-other-prediction-market-categories","Political Forecasting and Other Prediction Market Categories",[1205,2279,2280],{},"Political prediction markets are part of a broader ecosystem of event forecasting platforms.",[1205,2282,2283],{},"Related categories include:",[2285,2286,2288],"h3",{"id":2287},"sports-prediction-markets","Sports Prediction Markets",[1205,2290,2291,2292,2295,2296],{},"Forecast outcomes such as ",[1216,2293,2294],{},"World Cup winners and tournament probabilities",".\nSee: ",[1223,2297,2298],{"href":1504},"Sports",[2285,2300,2302],{"id":2301},"cryptocurrency-prediction-markets","Cryptocurrency Prediction Markets",[1205,2304,2305,2306,2295,2309],{},"Estimate ",[1216,2307,2308],{},"Bitcoin price probabilities, crypto bull runs, and market cycles",[1223,2310,2311],{"href":1511},"Crypto Prediction Markets",[1205,2313,2314,2315,1243],{},"Together these forecasting categories create a ",[1216,2316,2317],{},"global prediction ecosystem covering politics, economics, sports, and\ntechnology events",[1284,2319],{},[1200,2321,2323],{"id":2322},"strategies-for-analyzing-political-prediction-markets","Strategies for Analyzing Political Prediction Markets",[1205,2325,2326],{},"Professional forecasters often combine several analytical approaches:",[2285,2328,2330],{"id":2329},"data-analysis","Data Analysis",[1205,2332,2333],{},"Using polling data, economic indicators, and historical election results.",[2285,2335,2337],{"id":2336},"market-sentiment","Market Sentiment",[1205,2339,2340],{},"Analyzing how probability prices change after major political news.",[2285,2342,2344],{"id":2343},"scenario-modeling","Scenario Modeling",[1205,2346,2347],{},"Estimating probabilities for multiple geopolitical outcomes.",[2285,2349,2351],{"id":2350},"information-advantage","Information Advantage",[1205,2353,2354],{},"Identifying events before markets adjust.",[1284,2356],{},[1200,2358,2360],{"id":2359},"the-future-of-political-prediction-markets","The Future of Political Prediction Markets",[1205,2362,2363],{},"Political forecasting platforms are evolving rapidly as new technologies emerge.",[1205,2365,2366],{},"Future developments may include:",[1259,2368,2369,2372,2375,2378,2381],{},[1262,2370,2371],{},"AI-driven geopolitical prediction models",[1262,2373,2374],{},"blockchain-based prediction markets",[1262,2376,2377],{},"real-time political risk analytics",[1262,2379,2380],{},"global forecasting networks",[1262,2382,2383],{},"decentralized political forecasting platforms",[1205,2385,2386,2387,1243],{},"As data availability increases, prediction markets are expected to become ",[1216,2388,2389],{},"a central tool for analyzing political and\ngeopolitical risk worldwide",[1284,2391],{},[1200,2393,2395],{"id":2394},"frequently-asked-questions","Frequently Asked Questions",[1328,2397,2399],{"id":2398},"what-is-a-political-prediction-market","What is a political prediction market?",[1205,2401,2402],{},"A political prediction market is a platform where users trade contracts representing the probability of political events\nsuch as elections, leadership changes, or geopolitical conflicts.",[1284,2404],{},[1328,2406,2408],{"id":2407},"are-prediction-markets-accurate-for-elections","Are prediction markets accurate for elections?",[1205,2410,2411],{},"Many studies suggest prediction markets can outperform polls because they aggregate information from many participants\nand update probabilities continuously.",[1284,2413],{},[1328,2415,2417],{"id":2416},"what-types-of-political-events-can-be-predicted","What types of political events can be predicted?",[1205,2419,2420],{},"Prediction markets analyze many types of events, including:",[1259,2422,2423,2426,2428,2431,2434],{},[1262,2424,2425],{},"elections",[1262,2427,1231],{},[1262,2429,2430],{},"leadership changes",[1262,2432,2433],{},"economic policy decisions",[1262,2435,2436],{},"government stability",[1284,2438],{},[1328,2440,2442],{"id":2441},"how-are-election-probabilities-calculated","How are election probabilities calculated?",[1205,2444,2445,2446,1243],{},"Election probabilities are derived from the ",[1216,2447,2448],{},"market price of contracts representing each possible outcome",[1205,2450,2451],{},"Example:",[1205,2453,2454],{},"Market price: $0.65\nImplied probability: 65%",[1284,2456],{},[1200,2458,2460],{"id":2459},"conclusion","Conclusion",[1205,2462,2463,2464,1243],{},"Political prediction markets represent one of the most powerful tools for forecasting ",[1216,2465,2466],{},"global political events,\nelections, and geopolitical risks",[1205,2468,2469,2470,2473],{},"By combining ",[1216,2471,2472],{},"collective intelligence, probability modeling, and market incentives",", these platforms provide dynamic\nestimates for:",[1259,2475,2476,2478,2480,2482,2485],{},[1262,2477,1226],{},[1262,2479,2430],{},[1262,2481,1231],{},[1262,2483,2484],{},"economic crises",[1262,2486,2487],{},"global political developments",[1205,2489,2490,2491,1243],{},"As forecasting technology continues to evolve, prediction markets will become an increasingly important framework for\nunderstanding the ",[1216,2492,2493],{},"future of world politics",{"title":2495,"searchDepth":2496,"depth":2496,"links":2497},"",2,[2498,2499,2500,2501,2502,2503,2504,2505,2506,2514,2515,2516,2517],{"id":1330,"depth":2496,"text":1331},{"id":1546,"depth":2496,"text":1547},{"id":1705,"depth":2496,"text":1706},{"id":1892,"depth":2496,"text":1893},{"id":1963,"depth":2496,"text":1964},{"id":1994,"depth":2496,"text":1995},{"id":2024,"depth":2496,"text":2025},{"id":2054,"depth":2496,"text":2055},{"id":2084,"depth":2496,"text":2085,"children":2507},[2508,2509,2510,2511,2512,2513],{"id":2287,"depth":959,"text":2288},{"id":2301,"depth":959,"text":2302},{"id":2329,"depth":959,"text":2330},{"id":2336,"depth":959,"text":2337},{"id":2343,"depth":959,"text":2344},{"id":2350,"depth":959,"text":2351},{"id":2398,"depth":2496,"text":2399},{"id":2407,"depth":2496,"text":2408},{"id":2416,"depth":2496,"text":2417},{"id":2441,"depth":2496,"text":2442},"Analyze political prediction markets, election probabilities, geopolitical forecasts, war risk predictions, and global political event odds using data-driven forecasting models.","md",{},"\u002F_includes\u002Fcategory_politics",{"title":1195,"description":2518},"_includes\u002Fcategory_politics","b9ESxigg6qdybed6IGP1LOcXJmgudgLma6YfRTSRHcg",1781606263736]