[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":1137},["ShallowReactive",2],{"category-events-geopolitics":3,"category-content-geopolitics":49},[4,27,42,53,65,80,91,107,118,135,150,164,176,189,200,211,223,236,249,259,271,286,298,311,322,332,345,356,366,379,389,401,412,423,433,444,456,468,479,489,500,512,524,536,548,562,575,586,604,615,625,636,646,658,670,680,693,704,716,728,741,753,764,775,786,799,810,821,834,845,855,866,876,889,903,913,926,936,946,956,966,976,986,997,1007,1017,1029,1041,1052,1063,1074,1084,1094,1105,1116,1126],{"id":5,"title":6,"slug":7,"category":8,"subcategory":9,"tags":10,"probability":19,"createdAt":20,"updatedAt":21,"resolutionDate":22,"description":23,"summary":24,"volume1wk":25,"featured":26},"357807","US x Iran permanent peace deal by...?","us-x-iran-permanent-peace-deal-by","GEOPOLITICS","Iran",[9,11,12,13,14,15,16,17,18],"Trump","ceasefire","Iran Ceasefire","Agreement","10-point","U.S. x Iran","Geopolitics","Politics",0,"2026-05-30T10:42:43.363Z","2026-05-30T10:40:08.539Z","2026-12-31T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran and the United states agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. \n\nA permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between the US and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the two-week ceasefire agreement announced on April 7, 2026), will not qualify.\n\nA qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:\n\n- The United States and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.\n\n- Both the governments of the United States and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.","US x Iran permanent peace deal by...? is a geopolitics prediction market asking whether the United States and Iran will reach a permanent peace deal by the specified deadline of 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026. The forecasted outcome is narrowly defined: the market resolves “Yes” only if both sides sign or publicly confirm a qualifying agreement that clearly ends military hostilities on a lasting basis. Temporary ceasefires, extensions, or statements of progress do not count.\n\nThis event matters because U.S.-Iran relations remain a major driver of geopolitical risk, regional stability, and broader market sentiment. Traders are watching for official statements, treaty language, or other credible confirmation from both governments that a durable agreement has been established. The resolution source prioritizes official information, with credible reporting used as a secondary reference.\n\nCurrent market probability is 0%, indicating traders do not expect a permanent peace deal before the deadline at this time. As a geopolitical forecast, the market reflects ongoing uncertainty around U.S. x Iran diplomacy, ceasefire dynamics, and the likelihood of a definitive agreement rather than a temporary pause in hostilities.",55575856.145219125,true,{"id":28,"title":29,"slug":30,"category":8,"subcategory":31,"tags":32,"probability":35,"createdAt":36,"updatedAt":37,"resolutionDate":38,"description":39,"summary":40,"volume1wk":41,"featured":26},"372242","Trump announces US blockade of Hormuz lifted by...?","trump-announces-us-blockade-of-hormuz-lifted-by","Strait of Hormuz",[31,17,11,13,18,9,16,33,34],"Middle East","Hormuz",15.5,"2026-05-30T10:42:44.199Z","2026-05-30T10:40:08.245Z","2026-06-30T00:00:00.000Z","On April 12, 2026, President Donald Trump announced that the United States will blockade the Strait of Hormuz. You can read more about that here: https:\u002F\u002Fwww.nbcnews.com\u002Fworld\u002Firan\u002Flive-blog\u002Flive-updates-us-iran-fail-reach-deal-peace-talks-day-negotiations-rcna315918.\n\nThis market will resolve to \"Yes\" if President Trump, the US government, or the US military publicly and officially announces the end of the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nQualifying statements must clearly and explicitly indicate that the United States has lifted, ended, or will lift or end its blockade of the Strait of Hormuz on a specified date or use equivalently definitive language unambiguously signaling that such blockade has ceased or is set to cease on a specified date (e.g., statements unambiguously indicating that US naval activity in the relevant area has ceased will qualify). \n\nStatements that merely describe actions inconsistent with the blockade (e.g., \"Iran resumed shipping through the Strait of Hormuz\") without explicitly indicating the blockade as lifted will not alone suffice.\n\nInformal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks do not qualify.\n\nWritten public statements from Donald Trump (e.g., posts from his personal Truth Social account) will qualify. Videos posted on his social media accounts will also qualify for a \"Yes\" resolution.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the US government and\u002For its official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.\n\nNote: this market will resolve solely based on whether a qualifying announcement is made within the specified timeframe. Whether the blockade is effectively enforced or whether maritime traffic resumes absent a qualifying announcement will not be considered.","Trump announces US blockade of Hormuz lifted by...? is a geopolitics prediction market focused on whether President Donald Trump, the US government, or the US military will publicly and officially announce that the United States has ended its blockade of the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The event centers on the Strait of Hormuz, a critical shipping route in the Middle East, and the market resolves only if there is clear, definitive language that the blockade has been lifted or will be lifted by the deadline. Informal comments, leaks, or reports that merely imply normal shipping will not qualify.\n\nThe forecast matters because any change in US policy toward the Strait of Hormuz could affect regional tensions between the US and Iran, as well as broader market expectations around Middle East geopolitics. Current market probability sits at about 15.5%, suggesting traders assign a relatively low chance of a qualifying announcement before the deadline. As with most prediction market event prediction contracts, odds reflect evolving market sentiment rather than certainty, and traders are watching for any official statement from Trump or US authorities that meets the market’s resolution rules.",6602933.03823101,{"id":43,"title":44,"slug":45,"category":8,"subcategory":18,"tags":46,"probability":19,"createdAt":47,"updatedAt":48,"resolutionDate":49,"description":50,"summary":51,"volume1wk":52,"featured":26},"517606","US announces new Iran agreement\u002Fceasefire extension by...?","us-announces-new-iran-agreementceasefire-extension-by",[18,17,13,9,16],"2026-05-30T10:42:44.017Z","2026-05-30T10:38:09.490Z",null,"This market will resolve to “Yes” if the U.S. officially announces an extension of the ceasefire agreement between the U.S. and Iran, defined as a publicly announced commitment to the continued halt of direct military engagement with Iran or announces a new peace agreement, ceasefire framework, or diplomatic agreement under which the ceasefire will continue by the specified date 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf a qualifying announcement is officially made before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire extension ultimately takes effect.\n\nA qualifying announcement requires clear public confirmation from the U.S. government that the U.S. has either:\n\n1. Extended its commitment to the ceasefire, either as a dated\u002Ftime-based extension (e.g. a 60 day extension) or through an explicit statement that the ceasefire has been extended.\n\n2. Renewed the existing ceasefire as part of a broader peace agreement, ceasefire framework, or diplomatic agreement under which the ceasefire will continue.\n\nStatements which merely acknowledge, reaffirm, or describe the current ceasefire as remaining in effect, or which outline further negotiations or de-escalation measures, without announcing a new extension period, or successor agreement under which the ceasefire will continue, will not qualify.\n\nThe following would qualify:\n- President Trump announcing that “the ceasefire has been extended for another 60 days.”\n- An official U.S. statement announcing that “the United States and Iran have agreed to extend the ceasefire framework while negotiations continue.”\n- President Trump’s April 21, 2026 announcement extending the ceasefire “until the Iranian negotiators could reach a unified proposal.”\n- An announcement that the US and Iran have agreed to a new temporary framework under which the ceasefire would continue as Iran gradually reopens the Strait of Hormuz and the United States begins to unfreeze Iranian assets would qualify.\n\nThe following would not qualify:\n- Statements that the ceasefire merely “remains in effect” or “continues to hold,” without announcing a new extension, renewal, or successor agreement.\n- Statements that “the ceasefire will remain in effect while negotiations continue,” without announcing that the ceasefire itself has been extended, or a new framework or deal has been reached\n- Statements that negotiations are progressing, that talks are ongoing, or that the parties are “getting closer” to a deal, without announcing that the ceasefire itself has been extended, renewed, or continued under a new agreement.\n\n\nAn overwhelming consensus of credible reporting that a qualifying extension or successor agreement has been definitively established will also suffice for a “Yes” resolution.\n\nThis market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the U.S. government and will not require confirmation from Iran. ","US announces new Iran agreement\u002Fceasefire extension by...? is a geopolitics prediction market focused on whether the U.S. government will officially announce a continuation of the ceasefire with Iran, or a new peace agreement, ceasefire framework, or diplomatic deal that keeps the truce in place. The market resolves to Yes only if there is a qualifying public U.S. announcement by the specified deadline; statements that simply say the ceasefire is holding or that talks are ongoing do not count. In other words, traders are forecasting whether Washington will formally extend or renew the current U.S.-Iran ceasefire arrangement rather than merely discuss de-escalation. This event matters because any official extension or successor agreement would be a notable signal in U.S.-Iran relations, with implications for military risk, regional stability, and diplomacy in the Middle East. The market opened on May 23, 2026, and resolution is tied to the announced cutoff at 11:59 PM ET on the target date. Current market probability is 0%, indicating no priced expectation of a qualifying announcement at this time, though prediction market sentiment can change quickly as official statements or credible reporting emerge.",8902186.761979992,{"id":54,"title":55,"slug":56,"category":8,"subcategory":33,"tags":57,"probability":58,"createdAt":59,"updatedAt":60,"resolutionDate":61,"description":62,"summary":63,"volume1wk":64,"featured":26},"429456","Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?","iran-agrees-to-end-enrichment-of-uranium-by-may-31-945",[33,13,16,17,9],3.1,"2026-05-30T10:42:47.765Z","2026-05-30T10:37:12.706Z","2026-05-31T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.\n\nAny agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if\u002Fwhen the agreement goes into effect.\n\nAn agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.\n\nAn agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. \n\nAgreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. ","Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31? is a geopolitics prediction market in the Middle East focused on whether Iran will publicly commit to ending all uranium enrichment by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The forecast resolves to Yes if Iran makes a qualifying public pledge by the deadline, either unilaterally or as part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel; a temporary commitment or a pledge tied to a broader peace process also counts. By contrast, mere limits on enrichment levels do not qualify, which makes the wording of any announcement critical to the event prediction.\n\nThis market matters because uranium enrichment is central to U.S.-Iran tensions, regional security, and wider nonproliferation efforts. As a prediction market, it reflects trader sentiment on the odds of a diplomatic breakthrough before the end date. The current market probability is about 3.1%, suggesting traders see a Yes outcome as unlikely, though not impossible. The market’s resolution will depend on credible reporting and any official Iranian statement made before the deadline.",773488.0177810004,{"id":66,"title":67,"slug":68,"category":8,"subcategory":9,"tags":69,"probability":74,"createdAt":75,"updatedAt":76,"resolutionDate":61,"description":77,"summary":78,"volume1wk":79,"featured":26},"429426","What Iranian demands will Trump agree to by May 31?","what-iranian-demands-will-trump-agree-to-by-may-31",[9,70,71,13,11,31,72,17,18,16,73],"Sanctions","toll","Enrich","Uranium",11.5,"2026-05-30T10:42:44.605Z","2026-05-30T10:37:10.758Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the United States agrees to the continued enrichment of uranium by Iran by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nContinued enrichment of uranium by Iran refers to US acceptance of the enrichment of, or the right to enrich, any quantity of uranium by Iran for any future amount of time. Agreements that include limitations, restrictions, or specified terms (e.g., caps on enrichment level, monitoring requirements) will qualify, provided the United States accepts continued enrichment.\n\nThe United States will be considered to have agreed to the continued enrichment of uranium by Iran if:\n\n- Donald Trump or another authorized representative of the Government of the United States publicly announces that they have definitively agreed to accept the continued enrichment of uranium by Iran.\n- Continued enrichment of uranium by Iran is included as part of a treaty or deal that is formally established between the United States and Iran, either through signing or other formal means.\n\nAgreement refers to an explicit acceptance, authorization or consent to the specified action. Only announcements of definitive agreement will qualify. Suggestions, negotiations, expressions of openness, or other non-definitive statements will not qualify.\n\nAny definitive agreement or commitment made before the resolution date will be considered, regardless of when or whether the specified action is begun.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Donald Trump and the US government and their official representatives; however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used to verify the details of an announcement or formal agreement.","\"What Iranian demands will Trump agree to by May 31?\" is a geopolitics prediction market asking whether the United States, under Donald Trump or another authorized representative, will definitively agree to Iran’s continued enrichment of uranium by the May 31, 2026 deadline. The event resolves \"Yes\" only if the U.S. publicly announces explicit acceptance of Iran’s right to continue enriching uranium, or if that position is formally included in a treaty or deal with Iran. General negotiations, openness, or non-definitive statements do not count. This matters because uranium enrichment remains a central issue in U.S.-Iran relations, sanctions policy, and any broader ceasefire or diplomatic agreement involving the two countries. Traders are currently assigning about an 11.5% probability to a Yes outcome, suggesting the market expects a low chance of formal U.S. agreement before the end date. As a prediction market, the listing reflects current market sentiment, odds, and event prediction around a high-stakes foreign policy decision.",3880525.7414259994,{"id":81,"title":82,"slug":83,"category":8,"subcategory":9,"tags":84,"probability":85,"createdAt":86,"updatedAt":87,"resolutionDate":49,"description":88,"summary":89,"volume1wk":90,"featured":26},"504099","Iran ceasefire continues through...?","iran-ceasefire-continues-through",[9,18,13,17],100,"2026-05-30T10:42:43.405Z","2026-05-30T10:36:50.144Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the US-Iranian ceasefire remains in effect through the listed date (ET).  Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. \n\nThe US-Iranian ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect if the US government officially publicly confirms or if an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirms that the U.S. conducted a kinetic military action on Iranian soil before the resolution date. \n\nConfirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action must occur within one calendar day following the underlying action (i.e., by 11:59 PM ET on the following calendar day) in order to qualify. Accordingly, this market will remain open for one calendar day following the listed end date to allow for confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action occurring near the deadline.\n\nA qualifying \"kinetic military action\" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory. \n\nKinetic action against Iranian forces which do not occur within Iranian terrestrial territory will not qualify. \n\nActions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.\n\nThe resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.","Iran ceasefire continues through...? is a geopolitics prediction market asking whether the US-Iranian ceasefire will remain in effect through the listed deadline. The market resolves to Yes if no qualifying US kinetic military action on Iranian soil is officially confirmed by the US government or established by overwhelming credible reporting before the resolution date. A qualifying action is narrowly defined as aerial bombs, drones, or missiles launched by US military forces that impact Iranian territory; other forms of conflict, including artillery, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks, do not count under the rules. The event matters because it tracks the durability of a fragile ceasefire in a high-stakes geopolitical conflict and helps summarize market sentiment around escalation risk. Traders in this prediction market are effectively forecasting the expected outcome based on developments in US-Iran relations and conflict reporting. The market opened on May 20, 2026, and remains open for one additional day after the listed end date to allow time for confirmation. Current market probability is 100%, indicating the market is overwhelmingly pricing in that the ceasefire will continue through the resolution window, though odds can still change if new reporting emerges.",25312735.30568604,{"id":92,"title":93,"slug":94,"category":8,"subcategory":95,"tags":96,"probability":101,"createdAt":102,"updatedAt":103,"resolutionDate":38,"description":104,"summary":105,"volume1wk":106,"featured":26},"375597","Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?","strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-end-of-june","Macro Geopolitics",[95,34,97,16,98,31,99,100,9,17],"Oil","ships","Economy","transit",33.5,"2026-05-30T10:42:44.781Z","2026-05-30T10:36:44.374Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and June 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nDaily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on\u002Froll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.\n\nThis market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.\n\nRevisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for June 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https:\u002F\u002Fportwatch.imf.org\u002Fpages\u002Fcb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.","Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? is a geopolitics prediction market focused on whether shipping activity through one of the world’s most strategically important chokepoints will recover to a 7-day moving average of at least 60 transit calls. The forecast is based on IMF Portwatch data for “Arrivals of Ships” in the Strait of Hormuz, covering container, dry bulk, roll-on\u002Froll-off, general cargo, and tanker vessels. The market will resolve Yes if that threshold is published on any date between market creation and June 30, 2026; otherwise it will resolve No. Because the strait is central to global oil flows and broader U.S.-Iran tensions, traders are watching it as a macro geopolitics event prediction with potential implications for energy markets and regional risk sentiment. Current market probability is about 33.5%, suggesting traders see a return to normal traffic as possible but not the base case. The event starts on April 13, 2026 and runs through the end of June, with resolution tied directly to IMF Portwatch publications and their revision rules.",3407371.884199001,{"id":108,"title":109,"slug":110,"category":8,"subcategory":17,"tags":111,"probability":19,"createdAt":113,"updatedAt":114,"resolutionDate":22,"description":115,"summary":116,"volume1wk":117,"featured":26},"310530","Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?","iran-agrees-to-surrender-enriched-uranium-stockpile-by",[17,11,33,13,18,16,9,112],"Nuclear","2026-05-30T10:42:44.555Z","2026-05-30T10:32:05.315Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Iran publicly agrees to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn official pledge by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.\n\nAn agreement by Iran to surrender any amount of its enriched uranium stockpile will count.\n\nTo qualify, Iran must publicly agree that its enriched uranium stockpile, or any portion thereof, will be transferred, shipped, or placed under the custody or control of any entity outside of Iran and its influence, excluding non-state armed groups or Iranian-aligned organizations (such as Hezbollah, the Houthis, or similar actors).\n\nAny agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if\u002Fwhen the agreement goes into effect.\n\nAn agreement by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.\n\nAgreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.","Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...? is a geopolitics prediction market focused on whether Iran will publicly agree to transfer custody of any portion of its enriched uranium stockpile outside Iran by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The event matters because any such pledge would signal a major shift in U.S. x Iran nuclear diplomacy and broader Middle East security negotiations. \n\nFor this market to resolve to Yes, Iran must make a public agreement or pledge before the deadline, whether unilaterally or as part of a deal with the U.S. or Israel. The forecast does not require a finalized peace agreement, but it does require more than a promise to merely limit enrichment levels. Traders are specifically watching for confirmation that the stockpile, or any qualifying portion of it, will be transferred, shipped, or placed under the control of an entity outside Iran and its influence. \n\nCurrent market probability is 0%, indicating extremely low expected odds at this stage, though prediction market sentiment can shift quickly on credible reporting or diplomatic developments. The primary resolution source is consensus credible reporting.",4017181.6218990027,{"id":119,"title":120,"slug":121,"category":8,"subcategory":122,"tags":123,"probability":129,"createdAt":130,"updatedAt":131,"resolutionDate":22,"description":132,"summary":133,"volume1wk":134,"featured":26},"259355","Cuban regime falls in 2026?","cuban-regime-falls-in-2026","Cuba",[122,11,124,125,126,17,127,128],"PCC","Overthrow","Castro","Communist Party of Cuba","Miguel Diaz-Canel",26.5,"2026-05-30T10:42:59.418Z","2026-05-30T10:32:02.401Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Communist Party of Cuba (PCC) ceases to exercise de facto governing control over Cuba by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nA “Yes” resolution requires a clear and widely reported break from the PCC’s historical control over the government of Cuba. This may include events such as the overthrow or dissolution of the PCC and its replacement by a new government or transitional authority, the constitutional removal of the PCC’s status as the sole ruling party followed by a transfer of governing power to a different political entity, or the holding of multi-party national elections that result in a government not controlled by the PCC. A “Yes” resolution does not require the formal dissolution of the PCC, provided the PCC no longer exercises de facto governing control over Cuba.\n\nLeadership changes within the PCC, including replacement of the First Secretary, or governmental reforms that preserve the PCC’s de facto governing control over Cuba, will not suffice. Partial loss of territory, civil unrest, or challenges by rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the PCC no longer administers the majority of the Cuban population within Cuba.\n\nThe primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.\n","“Cuban regime falls in 2026?” is a geopolitics prediction market on whether the Communist Party of Cuba (PCC) will cease to exercise de facto governing control over Cuba by December 31, 2026. The event does not hinge on a simple leadership change; it requires a clear break from PCC control, such as the overthrow or dissolution of the party’s governing role, a transfer of power to a different political authority, or multi-party national elections that produce a government no longer controlled by the PCC. The forecast matters because it speaks to the stability of Cuba’s political system and the durability of Communist Party rule under Miguel Díaz-Canel and the broader Castro-era political legacy. The market is active from March 11, 2026 through the end-of-year resolution date, with traders currently pricing the probability at about 26.5%. That suggests the market sentiment leans toward continued PCC control, though the odds still leave room for a meaningful event prediction. Credible reporting will determine resolution, and partial unrest or reforms that preserve PCC dominance will not count as a “Yes” outcome.",70826.50745299997,{"id":136,"title":137,"slug":138,"category":8,"subcategory":139,"tags":140,"probability":143,"createdAt":144,"updatedAt":145,"resolutionDate":38,"description":146,"summary":147,"volume1wk":148,"featured":149},"73182","Will Russia capture Sloviansk by June 30?","will-russia-capture-slovainsk-by-2027","World",[139,141,142,18,17],"Russia","Ukraine",2.6,"2026-05-30T10:43:23.287Z","2026-05-30T10:40:23.032Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the Sloviansk Slov'yans'k-Vitka train station located on Tsentralna Vulytsia by June 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET.\n\nThe railroad station will be considered captured if any part of the train station icon is shaded red on the ISW map (https:\u002F\u002Fstorymaps.arcgis.com\u002Fstories\u002F36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”.\n\nIf Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.\n\nOnce Russia captures the railroad station, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.\n\nTrain station location: https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com\u002Fslovyansk+train+station+zoom.png\n\nTrain station Location in Sloviansk: https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com\u002Fslovyansk+train+station.jpeg\n\nSloviansk Location: https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com\u002Fslovyansk.jpeg\n\nLocation on Google maps: https:\u002F\u002Fmaps.app.goo.gl\u002FFnDJ8Xur2CzKvGC76?g_st=isi\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https:\u002F\u002Fdeepstatemap.live\u002F) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.\n\nNote: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.","Will Russia capture Sloviansk by June 30? is a geopolitics prediction market focused on whether Russian forces will take control of the Sloviansk Slov'yans'k-Vitka train station in eastern Ukraine by the resolution deadline of June 30, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. The market resolves to Yes if the ISW Ukraine map shows any part of the train station icon shaded red by that date, or if Russia gains actual control through a negotiated settlement that establishes control over the territory. If the station is not under Russian control by the deadline, the outcome is No. This event matters because Sloviansk is a strategically watched location in the Russia-Ukraine war, and traders use the prediction market to track battlefield developments, market sentiment, and the expected outcome of the conflict. Current market probability is about 2.6%, indicating that traders currently assign low odds to Russia capturing the station before the cutoff. The primary resolution source is the ISW map, with DeepStateMap or credible reporting used only if needed.",11955.776439,false,{"id":151,"title":152,"slug":153,"category":8,"subcategory":154,"tags":155,"probability":158,"createdAt":159,"updatedAt":160,"resolutionDate":38,"description":161,"summary":162,"volume1wk":163,"featured":149},"86318","Which countries will recognize Israel by June 30?","which-countries-will-recognize-israel-by-june-30","Israel",[154,17,33,156,157,18],"Syria","Yemen",1.05,"2026-05-30T10:43:10.494Z","2026-05-30T10:40:22.880Z","This market will resolve based on the countries that officially recognize Israel as a state between November 20, 2025 and June 30, 2026, 11:59pm ET.\n\nAn announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to \"Yes.\" Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Israel will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.\n","\"Which countries will recognize Israel by June 30?\" is a geopolitics prediction market asking traders to forecast which governments will formally recognize Israel as a state between November 20, 2025 and June 30, 2026, 11:59pm ET. The outcome is based only on official government recognition; an announcement of intent will not count. If government sources are unclear, the market may also use a consensus of credible reporting. This makes the event a focused test of diplomatic developments involving Israel, the Middle East, and countries such as Syria and Yemen that are relevant to the broader regional context. The market is designed to capture event prediction and market sentiment around formal recognition, rather than broader political statements. Current market probability is shown at about 1.05%, suggesting traders see recognition by additional countries as a low-probability outcome, though odds can change as new diplomatic signals emerge. The forecast will resolve at the end of the listed window, making timing central to the event’s resolution and to how prediction market participants assess the expected outcome.",25636.637882,{"id":165,"title":166,"slug":167,"category":8,"subcategory":17,"tags":168,"probability":170,"createdAt":171,"updatedAt":172,"resolutionDate":22,"description":173,"summary":174,"volume1wk":175,"featured":149},"131764","Nothing Ever Happens: 2026","nothing-ever-happens-2026",[17,169,18,139],"Parlays",69.5,"2026-05-30T10:43:16.303Z","2026-05-30T10:40:22.390Z","This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:\n\n- Trump out as President\n- China invades Taiwan\n- Xi Jinping out\n- U.S. invades Iran\n- Iranian regime falls\n- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’\n- Jeffrey Epstein alive\n- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate\n- Russia invades a NATO country\n- Trump acquires Greenland\n- 9.0 or above earthquake\n- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)\n- Major meteor strike (250kt+)\n\nOtherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.\n\nThe full rules for this market can be found here: \nhttps:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com\u002FNEH+2026.pdf","Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 is a geopolitics prediction market asking whether a major global disruption will occur before December 31, 2026. The event resolves to “No” if any listed trigger happens between market creation and the deadline, including Trump leaving office, China invading Taiwan, Xi Jinping being out, a U.S. invasion of Iran, regime collapse in Iran, Russia invading a NATO country, Trump acquiring Greenland, or extreme events such as a 9.0+ earthquake, a VEI 6 or larger volcanic eruption, or a major meteor strike. It also includes several other specific tail-risk outcomes, such as Bitcoin reaching 1 million or falling to 10,000, Jeffrey Epstein being alive, or a Republican trifecta with a Senate supermajority. Otherwise, the market resolves to “Yes.” As of the latest data, traders assign about a 69.5% probability to the “Yes” outcome, suggesting market sentiment leans toward no qualifying event occurring by year-end. This makes it a broad event prediction on geopolitical stability, tail risks, and high-impact world events.",18321.310698000005,{"id":177,"title":178,"slug":179,"category":8,"subcategory":17,"tags":180,"probability":19,"createdAt":183,"updatedAt":184,"resolutionDate":185,"description":186,"summary":187,"volume1wk":188,"featured":149},"42365","Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by...?","will-the-us-invade-venezuela-in-2025",[17,181,139,18,182],"Trump Presidency","Venezuela","2026-05-30T10:42:47.925Z","2026-05-30T10:40:16.784Z","2026-03-31T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Venezuela between September 6 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Venezuela or the United States as of September 6, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.","Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by...? is a geopolitics prediction market asking whether the United States will commence a military offensive intended to establish control over any part of Venezuela between September 6 and December 31, 2025. The event focuses on a clear forecasted outcome: traders are evaluating the odds that the U.S. will take direct military action rather than simply apply diplomatic or economic pressure. As defined by the market, the result will resolve to Yes only if credible sources indicate an offensive aimed at controlling Venezuelan territory; otherwise it will resolve to No. The market also specifies that territory de facto controlled by either country as of September 6, 2025, is treated as sovereign territory for resolution purposes. Current market probability is 0%, indicating that market sentiment does not expect an invasion at this time, though prediction market odds can change quickly as geopolitical conditions evolve. This event sits at the intersection of world politics, the Trump Presidency tag, and Venezuela-related geopolitical risk, making it relevant to event prediction watchers tracking U.S.-Venezuela tensions.",704599.7896569998,{"id":190,"title":191,"slug":192,"category":8,"subcategory":141,"tags":193,"probability":194,"createdAt":195,"updatedAt":196,"resolutionDate":22,"description":197,"summary":198,"volume1wk":199,"featured":149},"79215","Will Russia rejoin the G7 before 2027?","will-russia-rejoin-the-g7-before-2027",[141,139,18,142,17],4.65,"2026-05-30T10:43:09.217Z","2026-05-30T10:40:13.403Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Russia officially rejoins the Group of Seven (G7) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf the title of the group changes (e.g., to \"G8\"), this market will still resolve to \"Yes\" so long as that group remains functionally similar to the G7.\n\nA formal rejoining must be acknowledged by a consensus of G7 member states to qualify for a \"Yes\" resolution.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from G7 member states, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.","Will Russia rejoin the G7 before 2027? is a geopolitics prediction market asking whether Russia will officially return to the Group of Seven by December 31, 2026. The forecast resolves to Yes only if a formal rejoining is acknowledged by consensus of G7 member states, based primarily on official statements and, if needed, a consensus of credible reporting. If the group’s name changes, such as to G8, the market still counts a Yes as long as the forum remains functionally similar to the G7.\n\nThis event matters because Russia’s status in the G7 is tied to broader Russia, Ukraine, and world politics, as well as the future of high-level diplomatic engagement among major economies. Traders in this prediction market are effectively pricing the expected outcome of any reconciliation or formal readmission before the deadline. Current market probability is about 4.65%, suggesting low odds that Russia rejoins within the stated timeframe. The market opened on 2025-11-13 and runs through the end of 2026, giving participants a long horizon to track market sentiment, diplomatic developments, and official G7 positions.",29415.497418,{"id":201,"title":202,"slug":203,"category":8,"subcategory":17,"tags":204,"probability":19,"createdAt":206,"updatedAt":207,"resolutionDate":61,"description":208,"summary":209,"volume1wk":210,"featured":149},"216826","Will Russia capture Kindrativka by...?","will-russia-capture-kindrativka-by-march-31",[17,18,142,205],"Ukraine Map","2026-05-30T10:43:22.367Z","2026-05-30T10:40:13.312Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 51.141847° N, 34.771637° E in Kindrativka, Sumy Oblast, by the specified date 11:59 PM ET.\n\nThe intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https:\u002F\u002Fstorymaps.arcgis.com\u002Fstories\u002F36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.\n\nFor any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.\n\nIf Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.\n\nOnce Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.\n\nIntersection Location: https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com\u002FKS.png\n\nIntersection Location in Kindrativka: https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com\u002FKS2.png\n\nKindrativka Location: https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com\u002FKS3.png\n\nLocation on Google Maps: https:\u002F\u002Fmaps.app.goo.gl\u002FBTC6vHHmyYcJ1WETA\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https:\u002F\u002Fdeepstatemap.live\u002F) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.\n\nNote: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.","Will Russia capture Kindrativka by...? is a geopolitics prediction market focused on whether Russian forces will capture a specific intersection in Kindrativka, Sumy Oblast, by the resolution deadline. The market resolves to Yes if the intersection at 51.141847° N, 34.771637° E is shown as Russian-controlled on the ISW Ukraine map, with qualifying red shading that persists through the next full daily update cycle. If Russia gains actual control through a negotiated settlement, that also counts for a Yes outcome.\n\nThis event matters because it tracks battlefield movement in northeastern Ukraine and gives traders a real-time forecast of market sentiment around territorial control. The current market probability is 0%, though that figure reflects trading activity and expected outcome rather than a guarantee. The market remains active through May 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET, with the forecast ultimately determined by ISW, and DeepStateMap or credible reporting used only if primary sources are unavailable.\n\nFor prediction market participants, this is a focused event prediction tied to Ukraine map developments, Russian control, and short-term geopolitical odds.",12531.543152999997,{"id":212,"title":213,"slug":214,"category":8,"subcategory":139,"tags":215,"probability":19,"createdAt":217,"updatedAt":218,"resolutionDate":219,"description":220,"summary":221,"volume1wk":222,"featured":149},"18571","Will any country leave NATO by...?","will-any-country-leave-nato-in-2025",[139,216,17,18],"NATO","2026-05-30T10:43:05.947Z","2026-05-30T10:40:12.662Z","2026-12-31T12:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if any member state formally withdraws from NATO or provides an official notice of denunciation to NATO by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal as per Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty.\n\nA country's exit from NATO’s integrated military command structure will not be sufficient to resolve this market to \"Yes\". That country must either withdraw or submit a notice of denunciation to trigger a \"Yes\" resolution.\n\nThe resolution source will be official information from the relevant government and NATO, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.","Will any country leave NATO by...? is a geopolitics prediction market asking whether any NATO member state will formally withdraw from the alliance or submit an official notice of denunciation by the market’s deadline. The event resolves to “Yes” only if a member country takes one of those formal steps under Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty; a mere exit from NATO’s integrated military command structure is not enough. This makes the forecast a focused test of alliance stability, international security, and current market sentiment around NATO and world politics. The market is active from February 13, 2025 through the resolution deadline on December 31, 2025 at 11:59 PM ET. As of the latest data, the implied probability is 0%, suggesting traders currently see no meaningful expectation of a withdrawal, though prediction market odds can change quickly with new geopolitical developments or official government statements. Resolution will rely primarily on official information from NATO and the relevant government, with credible reporting also considered if needed.",38234.900908,{"id":224,"title":225,"slug":226,"category":8,"subcategory":154,"tags":227,"probability":230,"createdAt":231,"updatedAt":232,"resolutionDate":38,"description":233,"summary":234,"volume1wk":235,"featured":149},"431776","U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by June 30?","us-evacuates-beirut-embassy-by-june-30",[154,17,33,228,229],"Hezbollah","Lebanon",7,"2026-05-30T10:43:03.027Z","2026-05-30T10:40:11.728Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the U.S. government announces a full evacuation of the U.S. Embassy in Beirut, Lebanon, or a full evacuation of the embassy is otherwise confirmed between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA full evacuation announced within this market's timeframe will qualify for a \"Yes\" resolution regardless of whether an actual evacuation subsequently takes place within the timeframe.\n\nAnnouncements of a partial evacuation, where some staff are intended to remain, will not count.\n\nThe resolution source will be official statements from the U.S. government or a consensus of credible reporting confirming the evacuation of the embassy.  ","U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by June 30? is a geopolitics prediction market tied to whether the U.S. government announces a full evacuation of the U.S. Embassy in Beirut, Lebanon, before June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The market resolves to Yes only if a full evacuation is officially announced or otherwise confirmed within the timeframe; a partial evacuation, where some staff remain, does not qualify. Credible reporting or official U.S. government statements will be used as the resolution source.\n\nThis event matters because embassy evacuations are a significant signal of deteriorating security conditions in the Middle East, particularly in the context of Lebanon, Hezbollah, and broader Israel-related regional risk. Traders in this prediction market are effectively forecasting whether conditions around the U.S. diplomatic presence in Beirut become severe enough to require a complete withdrawal.\n\nCurrent market probability is about 7%, suggesting low but non-zero odds of the expected outcome. The event opened on May 26, 2026 and runs until the June 30 deadline, making market sentiment sensitive to official announcements, credible news reports, and any escalation affecting U.S. diplomatic operations in Lebanon.",50284.26673,{"id":237,"title":238,"slug":239,"category":8,"subcategory":142,"tags":240,"probability":243,"createdAt":244,"updatedAt":245,"resolutionDate":22,"description":246,"summary":247,"volume1wk":248,"featured":149},"73211","Ukraine joins NATO before 2027?","ukraine-joins-nato-before-2027",[142,139,18,241,17,242,216],"Foreign Policy","putin",5.45,"2026-05-30T10:43:20.222Z","2026-05-30T10:40:11.545Z","If Ukraine has officially joined NATO as a full member state at any point by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nThe primary settlement source for this market will be the official NATO website (https:\u002F\u002Fwww.nato.int\u002Fcps\u002Fen\u002Fnatohq\u002Fnato_countries.htm), however other credible sources may be used.","Ukraine joins NATO before 2027? is a geopolitics prediction market asking whether Ukraine will become a full NATO member by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The event centers on a clear settlement rule: if Ukraine has officially joined NATO by the deadline, the market resolves to “Yes”; otherwise it resolves to “No.” The primary source for verification is the official NATO website, with other credible sources allowed if needed. This forecast matters because NATO membership would be a major development in European security, Ukraine’s foreign policy trajectory, and the broader Russia-Ukraine conflict. It also draws attention from traders tracking market sentiment around geopolitical risk, diplomacy, and alliance expansion. As of the latest update, the market assigns roughly a 5.45% probability to a Yes outcome, suggesting traders currently see accession before the end of 2026 as unlikely, though not impossible. The market is active through the end of 2026 and is closely tied to ongoing geopolitical negotiations and alliance politics.",14824.767202000005,{"id":250,"title":251,"slug":252,"category":8,"subcategory":13,"tags":253,"probability":194,"createdAt":254,"updatedAt":255,"resolutionDate":61,"description":256,"summary":257,"volume1wk":258,"featured":149},"429471","US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?","us-iran-nuclear-deal-by-may-31-974",[13,33,16,9,17],"2026-05-30T10:42:44.462Z","2026-05-30T10:40:10.204Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and\u002For nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nIf such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to \"Yes\", regardless of if\u002Fwhen the agreement goes into effect.\n\nAgreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and\u002For the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.","US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? is a geopolitics prediction market focused on whether the United States and Iran will reach a publicly announced mutual agreement on Iranian nuclear research and\u002For nuclear weapon development by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The market resolves to Yes if an official deal is announced before the deadline, including a bilateral agreement or a broader multilateral arrangement that includes both countries, and it can also settle on credible reporting if there is overwhelming confirmation. This event matters because any US-Iran nuclear agreement could affect Middle East diplomacy, regional security, and the broader trajectory of Iran-related negotiations. Traders are currently assigning a low probability of about 4.65%, suggesting the market’s expected outcome is that no deal will be announced by the resolution date. As a prediction market, it reflects market sentiment, odds, and event prediction around a high-stakes geopolitical forecast rather than a certainty.",4599922.648822007,{"id":260,"title":261,"slug":262,"category":8,"subcategory":142,"tags":263,"probability":19,"createdAt":266,"updatedAt":267,"resolutionDate":61,"description":268,"summary":269,"volume1wk":270,"featured":149},"131611","Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by...?","will-russia-capture-all-of-stepnohirsk-by",[142,205,141,242,18,264,265,17],"Military Actions","Russia Capture","2026-05-30T10:42:52.686Z","2026-05-30T10:40:09.859Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the entirety of Stepnohirsk, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, by January 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.\n\nStepnohirsk will be considered captured if the entirety of the municipality is shaded red on the ISW map (https:\u002F\u002Fstorymaps.arcgis.com\u002Fstories\u002F36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by January 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”.\n\nFor any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.\n\nThe territory of the municipality is shaded in light grey and is distinguished from bordering municipalities such as \"Prymorske\" with a darker grey line. If all area within the municipality is shaded in red, however, the shading does not precisely match up with the border such that there is a tiny amount of grey along the border of the city, this will still qualify for a \"Yes\" resolution.\n\nOnce Russia captures the entirety of Stepnohirsk, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.\n\nLocation on Google maps: https:\u002F\u002Fmaps.app.goo.gl\u002FCwF1b64Qo49PvUZw5\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https:\u002F\u002Fdeepstatemap.live\u002F) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.\n\nNote: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.\n\nIf Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.","Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by...? is a geopolitics prediction market focused on whether Russian forces will gain control of the entire municipality of Stepnohirsk in Zaporizhzhia Oblast by the resolution deadline. The market resolves to Yes if the ISW Ukraine map shows the full area shaded red, indicating Russian control, and that status persists through the next full ISW daily update cycle; if not, it resolves to No. The forecast matters because Stepnohirsk sits within the wider Ukraine war map and is one of several local territorial control questions traders use to gauge military momentum and market sentiment. The event runs through May 31, 2026, with a specific resolution cutoff tied to the market rules and ISW reporting standards. Current market probability is 0%, though that reflects live prediction market pricing rather than a guarantee of the final outcome. If the ISW map is unavailable, DeepStateMap or credible reporting may be used. This event prediction is relevant to users tracking Russia, Ukraine, Putin, military actions, and Russia capture outcomes.",177734.237888,{"id":272,"title":273,"slug":274,"category":8,"subcategory":275,"tags":276,"probability":19,"createdAt":280,"updatedAt":281,"resolutionDate":282,"description":283,"summary":284,"volume1wk":285,"featured":149},"267102","Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?","kharg-island-no-longer-under-iranian-control-by-march-31","Khamenei",[275,277,278,9,279,17,31],"Iran Regime","Kharg Island","Mojtaba Khamenei","2026-05-30T10:42:44.876Z","2026-05-30T10:40:05.953Z","2026-03-31T23:55:00.000Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Kharg Island is no longer under Iranian control by March 31, 2026 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\n“No longer under the control of Iran” means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Kharg Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.\n\nTemporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.\n\nAn announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.\n\nIf control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.\n\nIf control over Kharg Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.","Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...? is a geopolitics prediction market asking whether Iran will lose primary governmental or military control of Kharg Island by March 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. The event resolves to Yes only if another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has actually established control over the island by the deadline; disputed, temporary, or partial disruptions do not count. That makes the forecast highly specific and dependent on confirmed changes in control, not just military activity, announcements, or threats.\n\nThe market matters because Kharg Island is closely tied to Iran’s strategic position in the Gulf and the broader Strait of Hormuz region. Traders are watching official government and military statements, along with credible reporting, to assess the expected outcome. At the current stage, market probability is listed at 0%, indicating no priced expectation that Iran will lose control before the resolution date. As a prediction market, it reflects event prediction and shifting market sentiment around a major geopolitical scenario involving Iran, Khamenei, and the Kharg Island area.",3013439.5421230323,{"id":287,"title":288,"slug":289,"category":8,"subcategory":154,"tags":290,"probability":19,"createdAt":292,"updatedAt":293,"resolutionDate":294,"description":295,"summary":296,"volume1wk":297,"featured":149},"61890","Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by...?","will-israel-launch-a-major-ground-offensive-in-gaza-by-october-31",[154,139,33,18,17,291],"Gaza","2026-05-30T10:42:57.006Z","2026-05-30T10:39:52.448Z","2025-12-31T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Israel initiates a major ground offensive in Gaza between May 5, 9:00 PM ET, and May 13, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA \"major ground offensive\" is defined as a large-scale military operation that involves more than 1,000 Israeli ground forces entering Gazan territory that was not under Israeli control at the start of the offensive. This excludes smaller raids, special operations, or limited incursions directly bordering buffer zones already under Israeli control.\n\nThe resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.","Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by...? is a geopolitics prediction market focused on whether Israel will begin a large-scale ground operation in Gaza within the specified window. The market resolves to Yes only if Israel initiates an offensive involving more than 1,000 Israeli ground forces entering Gazan territory that was not under Israeli control at the start of the operation; smaller raids, special operations, and limited border incursions do not count. The resolution source is a consensus of credible reporting.\n\nThis event matters because it tracks a major escalation risk in the Israel-Gaza conflict and reflects trader expectations around military activity in the Middle East. The market opened on October 19, 2025 and is set to run through December 31, 2025, giving participants a defined timeframe to forecast the expected outcome. Current market probability is 0%, suggesting traders see no chance of a qualifying offensive at present, though prediction market odds can change quickly as new information emerges. As a geopolitical forecast, it is closely watched by users following Israel, Gaza, World, and Middle East developments.",96094.48253300002,{"id":299,"title":300,"slug":301,"category":8,"subcategory":241,"tags":302,"probability":305,"createdAt":306,"updatedAt":307,"resolutionDate":22,"description":308,"summary":309,"volume1wk":310,"featured":149},"34044","Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?","will-china-invade-taiwan-before-2027",[241,303,18,139,17,304],"China","Earn 4%",6.55,"2026-05-30T10:42:48.937Z","2026-05-30T10:39:51.674Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nTerritory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify. \n\nThe resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.","Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? is a geopolitics prediction market asking whether China will begin a military offensive intended to establish control over any part of Taiwan, including inhabited islands, before the December 31, 2026 deadline at 11:59 PM ET. The event sits in the Foreign Policy category and focuses on a major risk in China-Taiwan relations, an issue with broad implications for regional security, global trade, and international diplomacy. In this forecast, traders are pricing the odds of a “Yes” outcome at about 6.55%, suggesting market sentiment currently favors no invasion before the cutoff. Resolution depends on official confirmation from China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or a permanent member of the UN Security Council, with credible reporting also able to settle the event. For prediction market participants, this is a high-profile geopolitical forecast tied to event-driven risk, policy signaling, and shifting expectations over time.",503213.3193790067,{"id":312,"title":313,"slug":314,"category":8,"subcategory":142,"tags":315,"probability":19,"createdAt":316,"updatedAt":317,"resolutionDate":318,"description":319,"summary":320,"volume1wk":321,"featured":149},"25036","Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by...?","will-russia-capture-kostyantynivka-by",[142,18,139,17,265,205],"2026-05-30T10:42:50.012Z","2026-05-30T10:39:19.297Z","2025-12-31T12:00:00.000Z","This is a market on the likelihood of Russia capturing Kostyantynivka by a specific date.","Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by...? is a geopolitics prediction market focused on whether Russian forces will take control of Kostyantynivka in Ukraine by the listed deadline. The event sits in the Ukraine subcategory and is relevant to broader market sentiment on the war, territorial changes, and the evolving frontline map. Traders in this forecast are effectively pricing the expected outcome of Russian advances against the possibility that the city remains under Ukrainian control through the end date. The market is active from May 22, 2025, and runs until December 31, 2025 at 12:00 UTC, giving participants a fixed timeframe for assessing developments. Current market probability is shown at 0%, though that figure should be read as the live market estimate rather than a certainty. As with other prediction market listings, the odds reflect how traders interpret military and geopolitical conditions, not a guarantee of what will happen. This event is useful for tracking geopolitical probability, event prediction trends, and real-time expectations around Ukraine and Russia.",351746.365096,{"id":323,"title":324,"slug":325,"category":8,"subcategory":142,"tags":326,"probability":19,"createdAt":327,"updatedAt":328,"resolutionDate":185,"description":329,"summary":330,"volume1wk":331,"featured":149},"73921","U.S. nuclear test by...?","us-nuclear-test-by",[142,17,18,11,242,141],"2026-05-30T10:43:16.350Z","2026-05-30T10:39:17.367Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.\n\nAccidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as \"dirty bombs\"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.\n\nTests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 \"Vela Incident\" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US. \n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.","U.S. nuclear test by...? is a geopolitics prediction market asking whether the United States will conduct a nuclear test by the listed deadline on March 31, 2026 (ET). The forecasted outcome resolves to Yes only if the US carries out an intentional non-combat detonation that produces a nuclear chain reaction, including a fission or fusion test. Accidents, dirty bombs, and actions by third parties do not count, and the market can also resolve based on a broad consensus of credible reporting if a test is not officially claimed. This event matters because any US nuclear test would have major implications for geopolitics, arms control, Russia-US tensions, and wider market sentiment around Ukraine and global security. As a prediction market, it reflects traders’ expectations about the odds of a test occurring before the deadline. The current market probability is 0%, indicating no active pricing for a US nuclear test at this time, though that can change as new information or headlines emerge.",18320.707742999995,{"id":333,"title":334,"slug":335,"category":8,"subcategory":336,"tags":337,"probability":339,"createdAt":340,"updatedAt":341,"resolutionDate":38,"description":342,"summary":343,"volume1wk":344,"featured":149},"486295","Saudi Arabia bans US military aircraft by...?","saudi-arabia-bans-us-military-aircraft-by","Project Freedom",[336,18,11,9,33,17,338],"saudi arabia",0.35,"2026-05-30T10:43:27.207Z","2026-05-30T10:39:16.996Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if Saudi Arabia officially announces that U.S. military aircraft are not permitted to use its airspace or land in its territory, or announces that U.S. military aircraft are not allowed to use certain military bases within Saudi Arabia, by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nA restriction applying only to a subset of U.S. military aircraft, such as only aircraft involved in a specified U.S. military operation, will qualify.\n\nA qualifying restriction must be a standing policy; isolated instances of access denial will not count.\n\nA consensus of credible reporting that Saudi Arabia has implemented a qualifying restriction on U.S. military aircraft will also suffice for a “Yes” resolution.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Saudi Arabia; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.","\"Saudi Arabia bans US military aircraft by...?\" is a geopolitics prediction market asking whether Saudi Arabia will officially restrict U.S. military aircraft from using its airspace, landing in its territory, or accessing certain military bases by the deadline of 11:59 PM ET on June 30, 2026. The market resolves to Yes only if the Saudi government announces a qualifying standing policy, or if there is consensus credible reporting confirming such a restriction. Isolated denials of access do not count, and the rule can apply even if the restriction covers only a subset of U.S. military aircraft, such as those tied to a specific operation.\n\nThis event matters because it sits at the intersection of U.S.-Saudi relations, Middle East security, and broader regional tensions involving politics, Iran, and Trump-era foreign policy dynamics reflected in the tags. As a prediction market event, it provides a real-time forecast of market sentiment on the likelihood of a formal Saudi restriction. Current market probability is around 35%, suggesting traders see the outcome as possible but not the base case. The event’s resolution will depend primarily on official Saudi statements, with credible reporting as a secondary source for the final outcome.",9721.015461000006,{"id":346,"title":347,"slug":348,"category":8,"subcategory":112,"tags":349,"probability":350,"createdAt":351,"updatedAt":352,"resolutionDate":22,"description":353,"summary":354,"volume1wk":355,"featured":149},"73330","Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?","will-iran-withdraw-from-the-npt-before-2027",[112,9,33,17,18],7.05,"2026-05-30T10:43:00.437Z","2026-05-30T10:39:16.198Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nTo qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.\n\nThe resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.\n","Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027? is a geopolitics prediction market focused on whether the Islamic Republic of Iran will formally notify the United Nations that it is leaving the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty under Article X before the market resolves at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026. The event hinges on an official written notice from the Iranian government that clearly states its intention to withdraw, with resolution determined by a consensus of credible reporting. As a nuclear and Middle East issue, the market matters because an NPT withdrawal would be a major signal in global nonproliferation policy and broader Iran-related diplomacy. Current market probability is about 7.05%, suggesting traders assign a low but non-zero chance to the expected outcome. The forecast captures market sentiment around geopolitical risk, nuclear escalation, and the likelihood of a formal treaty exit rather than informal rhetoric or threats.",61398.97428700002,{"id":357,"title":358,"slug":359,"category":8,"subcategory":31,"tags":360,"probability":101,"createdAt":361,"updatedAt":362,"resolutionDate":38,"description":363,"summary":364,"volume1wk":365,"featured":149},"509893","What Iranian demands will Trump agree to by June 30?","what-iranian-demands-will-trump-agree-to-by-june-30",[31,97,17,9,18,13,73,11,16],"2026-05-30T10:42:53.453Z","2026-05-30T10:39:14.020Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the United States agrees to the continued enrichment of uranium by Iran by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nContinued enrichment of uranium by Iran refers to US acceptance of the enrichment of, or the right to enrich, any quantity of uranium by Iran for any future amount of time. Agreements that include limitations, restrictions, or specified terms (e.g., caps on enrichment level, monitoring requirements) will qualify, provided the United States accepts continued enrichment.\n\nThe United States will be considered to have agreed to the continued enrichment of uranium by Iran if:\n\n- Donald Trump or another authorized representative of the Government of the United States publicly announces that they have definitively agreed to accept the continued enrichment of uranium by Iran.\n- Continued enrichment of uranium by Iran is included as part of a treaty or deal that is formally established between the United States and Iran, either through signing or other formal means.\n\nAgreement refers to an explicit acceptance, authorization or consent to the specified action. Only announcements of definitive agreement will qualify. Suggestions, negotiations, expressions of openness, or other non-definitive statements will not qualify.\n\nAny definitive agreement or commitment made before the resolution date will be considered, regardless of when or whether the specified action is begun.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Donald Trump and the US government and their official representatives; however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used to verify the details of an announcement or formal agreement.","What Iranian demands will Trump agree to by June 30? is a geopolitics prediction market centered on whether the United States, under Donald Trump or another authorized representative, will definitively agree to Iran’s continued enrichment of uranium by the June 30, 2026 deadline. The market resolves to Yes only if there is an explicit public announcement or a formally established US-Iran deal that accepts continued uranium enrichment, even if the agreement includes limits, monitoring, or other conditions. Mere negotiations or expressions of openness do not count. This makes the forecast a focused test of diplomatic progress between the US and Iran, with implications for the Strait of Hormuz, oil markets, and broader regional security. Traders are currently assigning about a 33.5% probability to the expected outcome, indicating market sentiment leans against a definitive agreement but leaves meaningful room for an event prediction to resolve Yes before the end date. Because resolution depends on official statements or credible reporting of a formal deal, the market will likely move on any substantive US-Iran announcement before June 30.",158047.53685199984,{"id":367,"title":368,"slug":369,"category":8,"subcategory":370,"tags":371,"probability":373,"createdAt":374,"updatedAt":375,"resolutionDate":22,"description":376,"summary":377,"volume1wk":378,"featured":149},"427746","Will UAE leave the Gulf Cooperation Council  in 2026?","will-uae-leave-the-gulf-cooperation-council-in-2026","UAE",[370,33,372,17,97],"GCC",11,"2026-05-30T10:43:02.586Z","2026-05-30T10:39:10.214Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the UAE officially announces or formally communicates its decision to withdraw from the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nAn official announcement or formal communication refers to a statement by the United Arab Emirates government or an entity officially authorized to make such a decision that clearly indicates its decision to withdraw from the Gulf Cooperation Council, including but not limited to a notice of denunciation or equivalent official statement, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect.\n\nInformal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source will be official information from the UAE government and the GCC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.","Will UAE leave the Gulf Cooperation Council in 2026? is a geopolitics prediction market on whether the United Arab Emirates will officially announce or formally communicate a decision to withdraw from the GCC before the market’s deadline of 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time on December 31, 2026. The event focuses on a clear government action or equivalent authorized statement from the UAE, not rumors, unnamed-source reports, or informal comments. That distinction matters because the outcome depends on verified official communication, with credible reporting used only as a secondary resolution source if needed. In prediction market terms, traders are forecasting the expected outcome of UAE-GCC relations over the year, using current market sentiment to price the odds of a withdrawal. The market currently assigns about an 11% probability to a Yes resolution, suggesting most participants expect the UAE to remain in the Gulf Cooperation Council through 2026. As a Middle East and oil-related geopolitical forecast, the event may draw attention from analysts tracking regional diplomacy, bloc cohesion, and broader Gulf political developments.",52303.895216,{"id":380,"title":381,"slug":382,"category":8,"subcategory":11,"tags":383,"probability":19,"createdAt":384,"updatedAt":385,"resolutionDate":185,"description":386,"summary":387,"volume1wk":388,"featured":149},"73923","Russia nuclear test by...?","russia-nuclear-test-by",[11,242,18,17,142],"2026-05-30T10:43:11.664Z","2026-05-30T10:39:08.880Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Russia conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Russia that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.\n\nAccidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as \"dirty bombs\"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.\n\nTests not explicitly claimed by Russia may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Russia. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 \"Vela Incident\" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Russia.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.","“Russia nuclear test by...?” is a geopolitics prediction market asking whether Russia will conduct a nuclear test by the listed deadline. The event resolves to Yes if Russia carries out an intentional non-combat detonation that produces a nuclear chain reaction, including fission or fusion, and to No otherwise. Accidents, dirty bombs, or actions by third parties do not count, and the resolution will rely on a broad consensus of credible reporting. This makes the market a focused forecast on nuclear escalation risk, Russia’s military signaling, and the wider geopolitical outlook involving Putin, Trump-era political context, and the war in Ukraine. The market is active with an end date of March 31, 2026, giving traders a defined timeframe for event prediction and odds discovery. Current market probability is 0%, indicating that traders do not currently price in a nuclear test, though sentiment can change quickly if credible reports emerge. As a prediction market, it reflects how participants assess the expected outcome rather than a certainty.",23836.191886999997,{"id":390,"title":391,"slug":392,"category":8,"subcategory":393,"tags":394,"probability":395,"createdAt":396,"updatedAt":397,"resolutionDate":22,"description":398,"summary":399,"volume1wk":400,"featured":149},"528389","Where will Trump and Putin meet next in 2026?","where-will-trump-and-putin-meet-next-678","Rewards 20, 4.5, 50",[393,17,18,139,181,242,11,141,142],0.75,"2026-05-30T10:43:21.409Z","2026-05-30T10:39:03.913Z","This market will resolve according to the location of the next meeting between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.\n\nThis market will resolve to \"No meeting by December 31\" if no qualifying meeting occurs during this market's timeframe.\n\nA meeting is defined as any encounter where Putin and Trump are all present and interact with each other in person.\n\nAn exchange of words, handshake, direct conversation, or other clear personal interaction between the named individuals will qualify as a meeting. Merely standing in proximity, making eye contact, or being present in the same room or event without direct interaction will not qualify.\n\nFor this market, Gulf states are defined as the six members of the Gulf Cooperation Council (Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates).\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.","Where will Trump and Putin meet next in 2026? is a geopolitics prediction market asking traders to forecast the location of the next in-person meeting between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin before December 31, 2026. The market resolves based on credible reporting and counts only direct personal interaction, such as a handshake, conversation, or other clear encounter; simply appearing in the same venue does not qualify. If no qualifying meeting occurs by the deadline, the outcome is \"No meeting by December 31.\" The forecast matters because any Trump-Putin meeting would carry major implications for U.S.-Russia relations, the war in Ukraine, and broader global diplomacy. The market also distinguishes possible locations, including Gulf states as defined by the six Gulf Cooperation Council members: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates. Current market probability is about 75%, suggesting traders see a meaningful chance of a qualifying meeting within the timeframe. As an event prediction in the geopolitics and politics category, it reflects market sentiment on whether and where the two leaders will next meet in person.",13506.259781,{"id":402,"title":403,"slug":404,"category":8,"subcategory":154,"tags":405,"probability":406,"createdAt":407,"updatedAt":408,"resolutionDate":38,"description":409,"summary":410,"volume1wk":411,"featured":149},"527930","Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by...?","israel-announces-lebanon-ceasefire-extension-by",[154,228,17,33,229],23,"2026-05-30T10:43:09.963Z","2026-05-30T10:38:50.078Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel officially announces another extension of the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hezbollah announced on April 16, 2026, defined as a publicly announced commitment to halt direct military engagement with Hezbollah, by the specified date, 11:59 PM Israel Daylight Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nBoth announcements of extensions of the April 16 ceasefire, as extended on April 23 and May 15, 2026, and of new agreements will qualify.\n\nIf a qualifying announcement is officially made before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire extension ultimately takes effect.\n\nA qualifying announcement requires clear public confirmation from the Israeli government that Israel has extended its commitment to the ceasefire beyond its current scheduled end.\n\nAny form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation, or unilateral pause in hostilities without a confirmed Israeli announcement of a qualifying extension will not qualify. Similarly, newly agreed-upon humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not qualify.\n\nA newly agreed-upon broader peace deal will qualify if it includes Israel's agreement to a ceasefire extension. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures, but do not explicitly extend the ceasefire, will not qualify.\n\nThis market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the Israeli government and will not require confirmation from Hezbollah. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting that a ceasefire extension agreement has been reached will suffice.","Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by...? is a geopolitics prediction market focused on whether Israel will formally announce another extension of its ceasefire agreement with Hezbollah. The market resolves to Yes only if the Israeli government publicly confirms a qualifying extension, or a broader peace deal that explicitly includes extending the ceasefire, by 11:59 PM Israel Daylight Time on June 30, 2026. Informal understandings, de-escalation measures, or temporary pauses do not count.\n\nThe forecast matters because it tracks the durability of the Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire first announced on April 16, 2026, and later extended on April 23 and May 15. For traders, the event prediction hinges on official Israeli statements and credible reporting, rather than Hezbollah confirmation. As of the latest data, the market is pricing the probability of a new extension at about 23%, suggesting traders see it as possible but not the base-case expected outcome. This makes the listing a useful indicator of market sentiment on Middle East tensions, ceasefire stability, and broader Lebanon-Israel geopolitical risk.",26751.137576000045,{"id":413,"title":414,"slug":415,"category":8,"subcategory":33,"tags":416,"probability":417,"createdAt":418,"updatedAt":419,"resolutionDate":38,"description":420,"summary":421,"volume1wk":422,"featured":149},"108031","US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?","us-iran-nuclear-deal-by-june-30",[33,139,9,154,18,17,13,112],39.5,"2026-05-30T10:42:45.883Z","2026-05-30T10:38:49.653Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and\u002For nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nIf such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to \"Yes\", regardless of if\u002Fwhen the agreement goes into effect.\n\nAgreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and\u002For the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.","US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? is a geopolitics prediction market on whether the United States and Iran will reach a publicly announced agreement on Iranian nuclear research and\u002For nuclear weapon development by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The event matters because any official deal, including a multilateral arrangement that names both the U.S. and Iran as parties, could affect Middle East security, diplomacy, and broader international relations. The market resolves to Yes if an agreement is officially announced before the deadline, even if implementation comes later. If no qualifying agreement is reached by the cutoff, it resolves to No. Current market probability is around 39.5%, suggesting traders see a meaningful but not dominant chance of a deal before the deadline. As with most event prediction markets, sentiment can shift quickly as negotiations, official statements, and credible reporting change the odds. This listing is closely watched by traders tracking geopolitical forecasts, Iran-related developments, and Middle East nuclear diplomacy.",1609108.003832003,{"id":424,"title":425,"slug":426,"category":8,"subcategory":17,"tags":427,"probability":19,"createdAt":428,"updatedAt":429,"resolutionDate":61,"description":430,"summary":431,"volume1wk":432,"featured":149},"198776","Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by...?","will-russia-capture-all-of-huliaipole-by-february-28",[17,205,18,142],"2026-05-30T10:42:56.112Z","2026-05-30T10:38:29.012Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the entirety of Huliaipole, Zaporizhzhya Oblast, (47°39'45.5\"N 36°15'13.1\"E) by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.\n\nHuliaipole will be considered captured if the entirety of the municipality is shaded red on the ISW map (https:\u002F\u002Fstorymaps.arcgis.com\u002Fstories\u002F36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”.\n\nFor any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.\n\nThe territory of the municipality is shaded in light grey and is distinguished from bordering municipalities with a darker grey line. If all area within the municipality is shaded in red, however, the shading does not precisely match up with the border such that there is a tiny amount of grey along the border of the city, this will still qualify for a \"Yes\" resolution.\n\nOnce Russia captures the entirety of Huliaipole, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.\n\nLocation on Google maps: https:\u002F\u002Fmaps.app.goo.gl\u002FvXBbP9idYDbbC21RA\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https:\u002F\u002Fdeepstatemap.live\u002F) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.\n\nNote: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.\n\nIf Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.","Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by...? is a geopolitics prediction market focused on whether Russian forces will take full control of Huliaipole in Zaporizhzhya Oblast, Ukraine by the resolution date. The market resolves to Yes only if the entire municipality is shown as Russian-controlled on the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) map, or if equivalent credible reporting confirms control under the market rules. It will also count if Russia gains control through a negotiated settlement, provided actual control is established. The forecast matters because Huliaipole sits within the broader Russia-Ukraine war and is tracked by traders watching frontline shifts, territorial advances, and changing market sentiment. The current market probability is 0%, indicating traders assign no measurable odds to a Yes outcome at present. The event opens on February 6, 2026 and is tied to a February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET deadline for the territory to be captured. As a prediction market event, it reflects event prediction and geopolitical forecast activity rather than a policy or financial recommendation.",110820.47783799998,{"id":434,"title":435,"slug":436,"category":8,"subcategory":181,"tags":437,"probability":19,"createdAt":439,"updatedAt":440,"resolutionDate":219,"description":441,"summary":442,"volume1wk":443,"featured":149},"25410","US x Russia military clash by...?","us-x-russia-military-clash-by",[181,11,17,139,264,438],"US-Iran","2026-05-30T10:43:03.998Z","2026-05-30T10:38:24.700Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of the United States and Russia between May 28 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA \"military encounter\" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between U.S. and Russian military forces. Non-violent actions, such as airspace violations, firing of warning shots (such as the June, 2021 Black Sea Confrontations between Russian forces and HMS Defender), or cyberattacks will not qualify. \n\nIntentional physical collisions, including aerial interceptions and naval ramming without the direct use of weaponry, such as the 2023 Black Sea incident—where a Russian Su-27 damaged a U.S. MQ-9 Reaper drone's propeller, leading to its crash— will not qualify regardless of damage. \n\nMilitary contractors will qualify only if confirmed to be operating under the direct command or coordination of the respective state’s armed forces (e.g. the Battle of Khasham would not qualify).\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.\n","US x Russia military clash by...? is a geopolitics prediction market asking whether there will be a direct military encounter between U.S. and Russian forces before the market deadline. The event covers the period from May 28, 2025, through December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, and resolves to Yes only if credible reporting confirms an incident involving force, such as missile strikes, artillery fire, or direct exchange of gunfire. Non-violent confrontations, warning shots, airspace violations, cyberattacks, and intentional collisions without weapon use do not qualify. Military contractors count only if acting under direct command or coordination of state armed forces. Current market probability is 0%, suggesting traders see a clash as unlikely at this stage, though prediction market odds can shift as geopolitical conditions change. As an event prediction tied to Trump Presidency-era geopolitics and broader military actions, it reflects market sentiment on one of the most consequential U.S.-Russia escalation risks.",46242.812409000006,{"id":445,"title":446,"slug":447,"category":8,"subcategory":139,"tags":448,"probability":449,"createdAt":450,"updatedAt":451,"resolutionDate":452,"description":453,"summary":454,"volume1wk":455,"featured":149},"281143","Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?","will-china-invade-taiwan-by-september-30-2026",[139,18,303,17],2.8,"2026-05-30T10:42:57.194Z","2026-05-30T10:38:22.054Z","2026-09-30T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nTerritory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify. \n\nThe resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.","Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? is a geopolitics prediction market asking whether China will commence a military offensive intended to establish control over any part of Taiwan by the September 30, 2026 deadline, with the market resolving at 11:59 PM ET. The event is framed around official confirmation from China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or a permanent UN Security Council member, though credible reporting may also be used to determine the outcome. As a World politics forecast, it focuses on a major Taiwan Strait escalation and the broader strategic risks that such an invasion would pose for regional and global security. Current market probability is about 2.8%, indicating that traders assign a low but non-zero chance to the expected outcome. The prediction market remains active through the end date, and market sentiment will likely continue to reflect developments in China-Taiwan relations, military activity, and international diplomatic signals. This event prediction is closely watched because it sits at the intersection of geopolitics, security analysis, and crisis forecasting.",93684.47096800001,{"id":457,"title":458,"slug":459,"category":8,"subcategory":18,"tags":460,"probability":462,"createdAt":463,"updatedAt":464,"resolutionDate":22,"description":465,"summary":466,"volume1wk":467,"featured":149},"73196","Will US withdraw from NATO by...?","will-us-withdraw-from-nato-before-2027",[18,139,11,241,142,17,461,216],"Greenland",8.3,"2026-05-30T10:43:03.910Z","2026-05-30T10:38:00.518Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the United States formally initiates a withdrawal from NATO or provides an official notice of denunciation to NATO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal as per Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty.\n\nAny action meeting these criteria will qualify for a “Yes” resolution regardless of if its implementation is immediately halted or delayed by judicial or other actions.\n\nThe U.S.'s exit from NATO’s integrated military command structure will not be sufficient to resolve this market to \"Yes\". \n\nThe resolution source will be official information from the US government and NATO, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.","Will US withdraw from NATO by...? is a geopolitics prediction market asking whether the United States will formally begin withdrawing from NATO or submit an official notice of denunciation under Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty by December 31, 2026. The market resolves to “Yes” only if the U.S. government takes one of those official steps; simply leaving NATO’s integrated military command would not be enough. Because the resolution depends on formal government and NATO sources, the event focuses on clear, verifiable policy action rather than broader speculation about foreign policy rhetoric. Traders are using this geopolitical forecast to assess the odds of a major shift in U.S. alliance strategy, with implications for NATO, Europe, Ukraine, Greenland-related tensions, and the wider world order. Current market probability is about 8.3%, indicating market sentiment leans strongly toward “No” at present, though prediction market odds can change quickly as political developments unfold. The event began on November 5, 2025 and remains active through the end-of-year 2026 deadline, making it a closely watched event prediction in the politics category.",47234.77586799998,{"id":469,"title":470,"slug":471,"category":8,"subcategory":139,"tags":472,"probability":473,"createdAt":474,"updatedAt":475,"resolutionDate":38,"description":476,"summary":477,"volume1wk":478,"featured":149},"107726","Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?","will-china-invade-taiwan-by-june-30-2026",[139,303,17,18],0.95,"2026-05-30T10:42:49.544Z","2026-05-30T10:37:57.200Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nTerritory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify. \n\nThe resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.","Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? is a geopolitics prediction market focused on whether China will begin a military offensive intended to establish control over any part of the Republic of China (Taiwan) before the deadline of June 30, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. The forecast resolves to Yes if such an offensive begins, including actions affecting inhabited islands under Taiwan’s administration, and No if it does not occur by the cutoff. Because this is a world politics event with major implications for regional security, trade, and U.S.-China tensions, it draws attention from traders tracking geopolitical risk and event prediction signals.\n\nMarket sentiment currently implies a 0.95 probability of a Yes outcome, suggesting very strong expectations in the prediction market, though that probability is not a guarantee. Resolution may rely on official confirmation from China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or a permanent member of the UN Security Council, with credible reporting also considered. As the end date approaches, odds and trading volume may continue to reflect changing geopolitical developments.",407490.007161001,{"id":480,"title":481,"slug":482,"category":8,"subcategory":18,"tags":483,"probability":19,"createdAt":484,"updatedAt":485,"resolutionDate":61,"description":486,"summary":487,"volume1wk":488,"featured":149},"216809","Will Russia enter Mykhailivka by...?","will-russia-enter-mykhailivka-by-april-30",[18,142,205,17],"2026-05-30T10:42:59.376Z","2026-05-30T10:37:54.052Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures any territory of Mykhailivka, Sumy Oblast, (50.797758° N, 35.315210° E) between market creation and the specified date (ET).\n\nTerritory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https:\u002F\u002Fstorymaps.arcgis.com\u002Fstories\u002F36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.\n\nFor any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either \"Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine\", “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. \n\nOnce a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.\n\nIf Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https:\u002F\u002Fdeepstatemap.live\u002F) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.\n\nNote: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.","\"Will Russia enter Mykhailivka by...?\" is a geopolitics prediction market focused on whether Russian forces will capture any part of Mykhailivka in Sumy Oblast before the market’s resolution date. The event asks traders to forecast a specific battlefield outcome using the ISW Ukraine map as the primary source, with DeepStateMap or credible reporting used only if needed. In practical terms, the market resolves to Yes if any qualifying Russian control, advance, or infiltration shading appears on the map and persists through the required update cycle; otherwise it resolves to No. The forecast matters because it tracks territorial changes in the Russia-Ukraine war and helps summarize market sentiment on a narrow, verifiable front-line development. The market opened on February 19, 2026 and is scheduled to end on May 31, 2026. Current market probability is 0%, suggesting traders see no expected outcome for a Russian entry into Mykhailivka at this time, though prediction market odds can change quickly as new reporting or map updates emerge. Tags include Politics, Ukraine, Ukraine Map, and Geopolitics.",70876.031996,{"id":490,"title":491,"slug":492,"category":8,"subcategory":303,"tags":493,"probability":494,"createdAt":495,"updatedAt":496,"resolutionDate":22,"description":497,"summary":498,"volume1wk":499,"featured":149},"79231","China x Philippines military clash before 2027?","china-x-philippines-military-clash-before-2027",[303,139,17],24.5,"2026-05-30T10:42:58.244Z","2026-05-30T10:37:40.652Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Philippines between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA \"military encounter\" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a \"Yes\" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a \"Yes\" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.\n\nNote: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.","China x Philippines military clash before 2027? is a geopolitics prediction market asking whether a direct military encounter will occur between the armed forces of China and the Philippines during the market window from November 11, 2025, through December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The forecast is narrowly defined: a “Yes” requires credible reporting of forceful military engagement such as missile strikes, artillery fire, gunfire, or other direct clashes. The market also counts serious ship-ramming incidents involving military vessels, while non-violent actions and minor damage do not qualify. In this event prediction, the China Coast Guard is treated as part of the military, but the Philippine Coast Guard is not. As a prediction market tied to China and broader World geopolitics, it reflects trader expectations on tensions in the South China Sea and the risk of escalation between Beijing and Manila. Current market probability is about 24.5%, indicating traders assign a minority chance to a clash before the deadline. Resolution will depend on a consensus of credible reporting, making this a closely watched geopolitical forecast through the end of 2026.",82017.76154799998,{"id":501,"title":502,"slug":503,"category":8,"subcategory":97,"tags":504,"probability":506,"createdAt":507,"updatedAt":508,"resolutionDate":61,"description":509,"summary":510,"volume1wk":511,"featured":149},"452977","Which countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31?","which-countries-will-send-warships-through-the-strait-of-hormuz-by-may-31",[97,31,9,17,505,16],"Naval",1,"2026-05-30T10:42:51.304Z","2026-05-30T10:37:34.769Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if a national government, its military, or a broad consensus of credible reporting confirms that the listed country's warships transited through the Strait of Hormuz between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nA \"warship transit\" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.\n\nOfficial confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.\n\nQualifying confirmations include statements such as official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.\n\nConfirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.","Which countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31? is a geopolitics prediction market focused on whether any national government, military, or credible reporting confirms a listed country’s warships transited the Strait of Hormuz before the market closes on May 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. The event matters because the Strait is a critical chokepoint for global oil shipping and a frequent flashpoint in U.S.-Iran and broader regional tensions. In this forecast, a qualifying transit means a military vessel passing through the narrowest part of the waterway between Iran and Oman; activity only in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea does not count. Commercial and civilian ships are excluded.\n\nTraders in this prediction market are effectively pricing the expected outcome of whether one or more countries will publicly send warships through the strait during the specified window. Current market probability is around 1%, suggesting very low odds of a confirmed transit event. The market’s resolution depends primarily on official government or military confirmation, with broad consensus from credible reporting also accepted.",244008.35100300002,{"id":513,"title":514,"slug":515,"category":8,"subcategory":154,"tags":516,"probability":518,"createdAt":519,"updatedAt":520,"resolutionDate":22,"description":521,"summary":522,"volume1wk":523,"featured":149},"79192","Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by...?","israel-and-indonesia-normalize-relations-by",[154,139,17,517,33,18],"Indonesia",8.5,"2026-05-30T10:42:48.452Z","2026-05-30T10:37:33.279Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if both Israel and Indonesia officially announce the establishment of diplomatic relations by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israel and Indonesia, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.","Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by...? is a geopolitics prediction market focused on whether the two countries will officially announce diplomatic relations by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The market resolves to Yes only if both Israel and Indonesia make an official announcement establishing relations before the deadline; otherwise it resolves to No. As a geopolitical forecast, it tracks a potentially significant shift in Middle East and Asia-Pacific diplomacy, with implications for regional alignment, foreign policy, and broader international recognition trends. The primary resolution source is official information from the governments of Israel and Indonesia, though credible reporting may also be used if needed. The market opened on November 11, 2025, and remains active through the end-of-2026 cutoff. Current market probability is about 8.5%, suggesting traders see normalization as possible but unlikely at present. This event prediction is relevant to users following Israel, Indonesia, Middle East politics, and world affairs, and it serves as a concise indicator of market sentiment around a low-probability diplomatic development.",588546.4263069995,{"id":525,"title":526,"slug":527,"category":8,"subcategory":242,"tags":528,"probability":530,"createdAt":531,"updatedAt":532,"resolutionDate":22,"description":533,"summary":534,"volume1wk":535,"featured":149},"166793","Will Russia invade another country in 2026?","will-russia-invade-another-country-in-2026",[242,141,17,18,264,529],"Armenia",12.5,"2026-05-30T10:43:04.132Z","2026-05-30T10:37:27.961Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any UN member state's territory, other than Ukraine's, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by any UN member state, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.","Will Russia invade another country in 2026? is a geopolitics prediction market that asks whether Russia will begin a military offensive aimed at taking control of any part of another UN member state’s territory, excluding Ukraine, before December 31, 2026. The market resolves to Yes only if credible reporting shows Russia has commenced such an action by the deadline; otherwise it resolves to No. Because the definition includes de facto controlled land as sovereign territory, the event focuses on a concrete territorial incursion rather than broader rhetoric or military activity. As of the latest market data, traders assign a probability of about 12.5% to a Yes outcome, suggesting the expected outcome is currently No. The market opened in January 2026 and will remain active through year-end, giving participants time to reassess market sentiment as geopolitical conditions evolve. Relevant entities and themes include Russia, Putin, Armenia, military actions, and broader geopolitical risk, making this a closely watched event prediction for users tracking Russia-related odds and geopolitics forecast markets.",45256.642485000004,{"id":537,"title":538,"slug":539,"category":8,"subcategory":33,"tags":540,"probability":542,"createdAt":543,"updatedAt":544,"resolutionDate":22,"description":545,"summary":546,"volume1wk":547,"featured":149},"237598","Iran leader end of 2026?","iran-leader-end-of-2026",[33,9,139,17,18,277,541],"Rewards 50, 4.5, 100",3.25,"2026-05-30T10:42:45.750Z","2026-05-30T10:37:17.975Z","This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.\n\nFormal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.\n\nIf more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.\n\nIndicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.\n\nSymbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.\n\nIf no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.\n\nThe primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.","Iran leader end of 2026? is a geopolitics prediction market that asks who will de facto hold and exercise the powers of head of state in the Islamic Republic of Iran at 12:00 PM ET on December 31, 2026. The event focuses on actual governing control rather than formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition, making it a forecast about who effectively runs the Iranian state at the deadline. That includes control over the armed forces, security services, national institutions, executive decision-making, and core state infrastructure. If no individual exercises effective authority at the specified time, the market resolves to “No Head of State.”\n\nThe issue matters because leadership continuity, regime structure, and internal power dynamics in Iran can shift quickly, especially in a volatile Middle East political environment. Traders are watching for credible reporting on who holds real authority as the resolution date approaches. Current market probability is about 3.25%, suggesting low expected odds for a particular outcome, though prediction market sentiment can change as events unfold. With start date in March 2026 and resolution at the end of 2026, this event remains a key geopolitical forecast for Iran regime watchers and broader Middle East observers.",1680926.657231,{"id":549,"title":550,"slug":551,"category":8,"subcategory":242,"tags":552,"probability":556,"createdAt":557,"updatedAt":558,"resolutionDate":22,"description":559,"summary":560,"volume1wk":561,"featured":149},"486199","Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by...?","russia-x-ukraine-ceasefire-by",[242,142,553,11,17,554,555],"zelensky","Ukraine Peace Deal","zelenskyy",4.5,"2026-05-30T10:43:01.225Z","2026-05-30T10:37:03.105Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine goes into effect by 11:59 PM Eastern European Time (EET) on the specified date and remains continuously in effect for at least 10 calendar days. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA ceasefire refers to any mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries, and which constitutes a general suspension of direct kinetic military engagement across the primary theater of the overall conflict. A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause (including holiday ceasefires) will count provided they otherwise qualify under this market’s rules. \n\nAny form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.\n\nAny calendar day (EET) during which the ceasefire is in effect (including the first day of the ceasefire) will count towards the 10-day total. The required 10 day period will end at 11:59 PM EET on the 10th day (inclusive). If a qualifying ceasefire goes into effect prior to this market’s end date, this market will remain open until the ceasefire is no longer in effect, or until the 10 calendar days have been reached. \n\nA ceasefire is considered no longer in effect when a consensus of credible reporting indicates the general suspension of hostilities has substantively ended across the primary theater. Temporary or technical lapses or expiration of a formal ceasefire term, isolated incidents, localized violations, or accusations alone will not invalidate the ceasefire provided the general suspension of hostilities across the primary theater continues. Where official government statements conflict with a consensus of credible field reporting, the reporting will take precedence over the government statements. \n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.\n\nExamples of qualifying Ceasefires:\n\nApril 8, 2026 US–Iran ceasefire: The United States and Iran publicly announced and implemented a mutually agreed ceasefire framework intended to broadly halt direct military hostilities between the two countries. Despite subsequent maritime confrontations, alleged violations, isolated retaliatory strikes, and disputes regarding compliance, the broader ceasefire framework continued to function and widescale fighting across the primary theater did not resume.\n\nNovember 27, 2024 Israel–Hezbollah ceasefire: Israel and Hezbollah implemented a broadly operative ceasefire framework brokered through international mediators that substantially reduced hostilities across southern Lebanon and northern Israel, including the effective halt of Israel’s major ground offensive into Lebanon and a significant reduction in Hezbollah rocket fire. Although the ceasefire was not formally announced through a single joint declaration by both parties and public statements differed in framing and characterization, a consensus of credible reporting confirmed the arrangement had been mutually agreed and implemented in practice. Despite continued isolated strikes, alleged violations, and disputes regarding compliance, credible reporting broadly treated the ceasefire as remaining operational and widescale fighting across the primary theater of the conflict did not resume.\n\nExamples of non qualifying Ceasefires:\n\nNovember 24, 2023 Israel–Hamas humanitarian pause: Although it was a mutually agreed and publicly announced broad suspension of hostilities across Gaza, the ceasefire framework remained in effect for only approximately 7 days before wide-scale fighting resumed, failing the required 10-calendar-day duration requirement. Ceasefire violations prior to November 30, would not have invalidated the ceasefire. \n\nJuly 22, 2022 Black Sea Grain Initiative: Although Russia and Ukraine entered into internationally brokered agreements governing grain exports and reducing risks to commercial shipping in the Black Sea, the arrangement did not constitute a general suspension of direct military engagement across the primary theater of the war. Hostilities continued across Ukraine throughout the duration of the agreement and the arrangement applied only to specific categories of activity and geographic areas.\n\nMay 2023 Sudan ceasefires (SAF–RSF): Although the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and Rapid Support Forces (RSF) publicly agreed to multiple internationally brokered ceasefires, a consensus of credible reporting indicated that the general suspension of hostilities across the primary theater never substantively took effect and large-scale fighting broadly continued throughout the ceasefire periods. While some temporary reductions in violence and localized humanitarian access reportedly occurred in certain areas, artillery fire, airstrikes, urban combat, troop movements, and offensive operations continued across major parts of Sudan almost immediately after implementation. Credible reporting broadly treated the ceasefires as having failed or collapsed in practice despite technically remaining in force on paper.","Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by...? is a geopolitics prediction market asking whether Russia and Ukraine will enter a qualifying ceasefire by the specified deadline and keep it in effect for at least 10 consecutive calendar days. The event focuses on a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement across the main theater of the war, confirmed by official announcement or credible reporting, rather than a limited pause, humanitarian lull, or partial restriction. The market resolves based on a consensus of credible sources, with the result depending on whether a broader truce, peace deal, or ceasefire framework meets the event rules before 11:59 PM EET on the end date, currently set for December 31, 2026. As a geopolitical forecast tied to the Russia-Ukraine war, the market draws attention to developments involving Vladimir Putin, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Ukraine, and, indirectly, Donald Trump-related diplomacy or policy expectations. Current market probability is about 4.5%, suggesting traders see a ceasefire as possible but not the expected outcome. That pricing reflects cautious market sentiment around negotiations, battlefield conditions, and the difficulty of sustaining any agreement long enough to satisfy the 10-day threshold.",58695.68976,{"id":563,"title":564,"slug":565,"category":8,"subcategory":139,"tags":566,"probability":569,"createdAt":570,"updatedAt":571,"resolutionDate":22,"description":572,"summary":573,"volume1wk":574,"featured":149},"79230","China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?","china-x-taiwan-military-clash-before-2027",[139,567,241,303,17,568],"Taiwan","HFC",7.5,"2026-05-30T10:43:19.592Z","2026-05-30T10:37:01.550Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Taiwan (Republic of China) between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA \"military encounter\" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a \"Yes\" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a \"Yes\" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.\n\nNote: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.","China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? is a geopolitics prediction market focused on whether China and Taiwan will enter a direct military encounter between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026. The market resolves to Yes only if there is use of force between the military forces of the People’s Republic of China and the Republic of China, such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other direct military engagement. It excludes non-violent actions and warning shots, and it treats the China Coast Guard as part of the military while excluding Taiwan’s Coast Guard Administration. This forecast matters because any escalation across the Taiwan Strait would have major implications for foreign policy, regional security, and global markets. Current market probability is about 7.5%, suggesting traders see a clash as possible but still unlikely. As a prediction market, it reflects evolving market sentiment and the odds of a defined event rather than a certainty. Resolution will be based on a consensus of credible reporting.",15149.147412999999,{"id":576,"title":577,"slug":578,"category":8,"subcategory":11,"tags":579,"probability":580,"createdAt":581,"updatedAt":582,"resolutionDate":22,"description":583,"summary":584,"volume1wk":585,"featured":149},"230885","US x Cuba military clash in 2026?","us-x-cuba-military-clash-in-2026",[11,17,122],50.5,"2026-05-30T10:43:24.421Z","2026-05-30T10:37:00.999Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of the United States and Cuba between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA \"military encounter\" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between US and Cuban military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a \"Yes\" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a \"Yes\" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.\n\nNote: the United States Coast Guard is considered part of the United States military, and the Cuban Border Guard is considered part of the Cuban military.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.","US x Cuba military clash in 2026? is a geopolitics prediction market asking whether the United States and Cuba will have a direct military encounter before December 31, 2026. The market resolves to Yes only if there is an exchange of force between US and Cuban military forces, such as gunfire, missile strikes, artillery fire, or another form of direct military engagement; non-violent incidents do not qualify. The US Coast Guard counts as part of the US military, and the Cuban Border Guard counts as part of the Cuban military, which helps define the scope of the forecast.\n\nThis event matters because it tracks geopolitical risk in the Caribbean and broader US-Cuba relations, with traders pricing in the odds of an actual clash rather than routine tension. As of the latest data, the market-implied probability is about 50.5%, suggesting a roughly even split in market sentiment. The prediction market opened on February 26, 2026 and runs through the end of the year, with resolution based on a consensus of credible reporting. For event prediction and geopolitical forecast watchers, this listing reflects uncertainty around a high-impact but narrowly defined military outcome.",11252.113144,{"id":587,"title":588,"slug":589,"category":8,"subcategory":590,"tags":591,"probability":19,"createdAt":598,"updatedAt":599,"resolutionDate":600,"description":601,"summary":602,"volume1wk":603,"featured":149},"276527","Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?","bab-el-mandeb-strait-effectively-closed-by","houthi",[590,592,97,17,9,31,593,18,594,595,596,597],"traffic","shipping","cape of good hope","Regional Spillover","red sea","Houthis","2026-05-30T10:42:51.676Z","2026-05-30T10:37:00.490Z","2026-04-30T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThis market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published.\n\nIf no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point. \n\nRevisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https:\u002F\u002Fportwatch.imf.org\u002Fpages\u002Fcb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730\n, including both the chart and downloadable files.","Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...? is a geopolitics prediction market asking whether traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait will fall to levels consistent with an effective closure. The market resolves “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of ship arrivals for the strait at 10 or fewer on any date from market creation through the listed deadline, using the IMF PortWatch “Arrivals of Ships” data as the resolution source. The forecast focuses on a key maritime chokepoint linking the Red Sea and the wider shipping routes affected by Houthi activity, regional spillover, and broader Middle East risk, including implications for oil transport and vessels rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope. This makes the event important for traders watching geopolitics, shipping disruption, and Red Sea traffic conditions. The market runs through April 30, 2026, with resolution possible earlier if the qualifying data appears before then. Current market probability is not provided, so market sentiment and odds must be inferred from trading activity rather than an explicit forecast. As a prediction market, it reflects expectations about whether shipping flows through this strategic strait will deteriorate enough to meet the closure threshold.",233585.198869,{"id":605,"title":606,"slug":607,"category":8,"subcategory":608,"tags":609,"probability":19,"createdAt":610,"updatedAt":611,"resolutionDate":318,"description":612,"summary":613,"volume1wk":614,"featured":149},"17526","China x India military clash by...?","china-x-india-military-clash-by-december-31","India",[608,18,303,17,139],"2026-05-30T10:43:11.049Z","2026-05-30T10:36:49.340Z","This is a market on the likelihood of a military clash between China and India occurring by December 31.","China x India military clash by...? is a geopolitics prediction market asking whether a military clash between China and India will occur by December 31, 2025. The forecast focuses on a real-world security outcome involving two major powers with long-running border tensions, making it a closely watched event in India and broader global politics. Traders in this market are effectively pricing the odds that some form of military confrontation, rather than diplomatic calm, will happen before the deadline. As of the latest market data, the implied probability is 0%, though prediction market sentiment can change if new developments affect the outlook. The event runs from January 30, 2025, through December 31, 2025, giving participants a clear window for event prediction and reassessment as geopolitical conditions evolve. This market sits within the India subcategory and is relevant to geopolitics, world affairs, and political risk analysis.",24870.432548,{"id":616,"title":617,"slug":618,"category":8,"subcategory":141,"tags":619,"probability":518,"createdAt":620,"updatedAt":621,"resolutionDate":22,"description":622,"summary":623,"volume1wk":624,"featured":149},"485543","Russia coup attempt in 2026?","russia-coup-attempt-in-2026",[141,18,242,142,17],"2026-05-30T10:43:25.278Z","2026-05-30T10:36:16.612Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Russia at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nA coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.\n\nClaims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a \"Yes\" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.\n\nThe resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.","Russia coup attempt in 2026? is a geopolitics prediction market asking whether there will be a widely reported coup attempt in Russia before December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The forecast focuses on a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. General unrest, protests, or non-state revolutionary activity do not qualify under the market rules. The resolution will depend on a consensus of credible independent reporting, not just government claims about a foiled plot. \n\nThis event matters because a coup attempt would signal major instability in Russia and could affect domestic politics, regional security, and the wider geopolitical outlook, including the war in Ukraine. Current market probability is around 8.5%, suggesting traders see the expected outcome as unlikely but still possible. As a prediction market, the odds reflect evolving market sentiment rather than a certainty, and they may change as new reporting emerges between the May 15, 2026 start date and the end-of-year resolution deadline.",10837.853115999998,{"id":626,"title":627,"slug":628,"category":8,"subcategory":17,"tags":629,"probability":19,"createdAt":631,"updatedAt":632,"resolutionDate":61,"description":633,"summary":634,"volume1wk":635,"featured":149},"386788","Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by...?","israel-x-iran-permanent-peace-deal-by",[17,229,13,154,9,630,228],"Israel x Iran","2026-05-30T10:42:45.304Z","2026-05-30T10:36:14.427Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Iran agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nA permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify.\n\nA qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:\n\n- Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.\n\n- Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.\n\nThe inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.\n","Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by...? is a geopolitics prediction market asking whether Israel and Iran will agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified deadline at 11:59 PM ET on May 31, 2026. Traders are forecasting a binary outcome: “Yes” if both governments formally adopt or publicly confirm a qualifying agreement that clearly ends military hostilities on a lasting basis, and “No” otherwise. Temporary ceasefires, short extensions, or statements of negotiation progress do not meet the market’s resolution standard.\n\nThis event matters because any durable diplomatic breakthrough between Israel and Iran would have significant implications for regional security, including related tensions involving Lebanon, Hezbollah, and broader Iran ceasefire dynamics. The prediction market is focused on official government statements from Israel and Iran, though credible reporting may also inform resolution. Current market probability is listed at 0%, indicating no priced expectation is available in the data rather than a guaranteed outcome. For users tracking geopolitical forecast and event prediction signals, this market reflects sentiment around whether a permanent peace settlement is realistically achievable before the deadline.",2228964.1721680006,{"id":637,"title":638,"slug":639,"category":8,"subcategory":17,"tags":640,"probability":19,"createdAt":641,"updatedAt":642,"resolutionDate":22,"description":643,"summary":644,"volume1wk":645,"featured":149},"143669","US military action against Cuba by...?","us-strike-on-cuba-by",[17,182,122],"2026-05-30T10:42:48.004Z","2026-05-30T10:36:12.019Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Cuba is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purposes of this market, a qualifying \"strike\" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.\n\nA strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.\n\nMissiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a \"Yes\" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage.\n\nActions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.\n\nAny strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.\n\nThis market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date\u002Ftime of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to \"No\" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.","US military action against Cuba by...? is a geopolitics prediction market asking whether a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on Cuban territory will be announced or credibly reported by the listed deadline. The forecast resolves to Yes only if a qualifying strike physically impacts the terrestrial territory of Cuba, including rivers, lakes, or ports, and excludes intercepted weapons, naval shelling, artillery, ground incursions, and cyberattacks. The market runs from January 4, 2026 through December 31, 2026 ET, with credible reporting as the primary resolution source. This event matters because it sits at the intersection of US-Cuba tensions, regional security, and broader Caribbean geopolitics, with possible relevance to Venezuela-related developments given the market tags. Current market probability is 0%, indicating traders assign no meaningful chance of a qualifying strike at present, though prediction market odds can change quickly as market sentiment shifts. As a geopolitical forecast, the listing captures whether any US military or intelligence operatives are reported to have conducted a strike on Cuban soil before the deadline.",671521.4616340002,{"id":647,"title":648,"slug":649,"category":8,"subcategory":154,"tags":650,"probability":652,"createdAt":653,"updatedAt":654,"resolutionDate":22,"description":655,"summary":656,"volume1wk":657,"featured":149},"72347","Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?","will-the-iranian-regime-fall-by-the-end-of-2026",[154,9,11,139,275,17,33,18,651,277],"Reza Pahlavi",14.5,"2026-05-30T10:42:48.165Z","2026-05-30T10:36:11.217Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThis requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.\n\nRoutine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.\n\nPartial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran. \n\nThe resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. ","Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? is a geopolitics prediction market focused on whether the Islamic Republic of Iran will stop governing before December 31, 2026. The forecasted outcome is not a routine political change: it requires a clear break in continuity, such as overthrow, collapse, revolution, civil war, military coup, or another transition that replaces the current system and ends the regime’s de facto authority over most of Iran’s population. Elections, reforms, succession, or internal power shifts that preserve core institutions like the Supreme Leader, Guardian Council, or IRGC under clerical authority do not qualify.\n\nThis event matters because it tracks market sentiment on a major Middle East and Israel-Iran geopolitical risk, with implications for regional security and global politics. Traders are currently assigning about a 14.5% probability to the regime falling by the deadline, suggesting a low but non-zero expected outcome. The market opened on November 3, 2025 and resolves at the end of 2026, with credible reporting used to determine whether the Islamic Republic has ceased to exercise sovereign power. Tags and search interest around Iran, Khamenei, Reza Pahlavi, Trump, and the broader Iran regime debate reflect the event’s political significance.",640837.0614000001,{"id":659,"title":660,"slug":661,"category":8,"subcategory":662,"tags":663,"probability":19,"createdAt":665,"updatedAt":666,"resolutionDate":38,"description":667,"summary":668,"volume1wk":669,"featured":149},"130985","Thailand strikes Cambodia by...?","thailand-strikes-cambodia-by-966","Thailand-Cambodia",[662,17,664,264,139,18],"Asia","2026-05-30T10:43:15.904Z","2026-05-30T10:36:06.265Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Thailand initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Cambodian soil or any Cambodian embassy or consulate by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purposes of this market, a qualifying \"strike\" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Thai military forces that impact Cambodian ground territory or any official Cambodian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Cambodian soil is hit by an Thailand missile, this market will resolve to \"Yes\") that is officially acknowledged by the Thailand government or a consensus of credible reporting.\n\nMissiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a \"Yes\" resolution regardless of whether they land on Cambodian territory or cause damage.\n\nActions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Thai ground operatives will not qualify.\n\nThe resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.\n\nIf there is ambiguity as to whether a qualifying strike occurred, this market may remain open after resolution time for confirming evidence.","Thailand strikes Cambodia by...? is a geopolitics prediction market asking whether Thailand will initiate a qualifying drone, missile, or air strike on Cambodian soil, or against a Cambodian embassy or consulate, by the listed deadline. The market resolves to Yes only if Thai military forces launch aerial bombs, drones, or missiles that impact Cambodian territory or official Cambodian diplomatic property, based on credible reporting or an official acknowledgment from the Thailand government. It excludes artillery fire, ground incursions, cyberattacks, naval shelling, and intercepted missiles or drones that do not meet the stated criteria. This event matters because any escalation between Thailand and Cambodia would signal a serious deterioration in regional security and could affect broader market sentiment on Southeast Asia military risk. The forecast is currently priced at 0%, indicating traders see no immediate expectation of a qualifying strike at this time, though prediction market odds can change quickly as new reports emerge. The market is active through the specified resolution window ending June 30, 2026, with final resolution potentially delayed if evidence remains ambiguous.",18687.647511,{"id":671,"title":672,"slug":673,"category":8,"subcategory":142,"tags":674,"probability":19,"createdAt":675,"updatedAt":676,"resolutionDate":61,"description":677,"summary":678,"volume1wk":679,"featured":149},"197909","Will Russia enter Kindrashivka by...?","will-russia-enter-kindrashivka-by-february-28",[142,205,17,18],"2026-05-30T10:43:14.129Z","2026-05-30T10:35:55.333Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures any territory of Kindrashivka, Kharkiv Oblast, (49.767840° N, 37.579877° E) between market creation and February 28, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET.\n\nTerritory will be considered captured if any part of Kindrashivka is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https:\u002F\u002Fstorymaps.arcgis.com\u002Fstories\u002F36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.\n\nFor any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either \"Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine\", “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. \n\nOnce a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.\n\nIf Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https:\u002F\u002Fdeepstatemap.live\u002F) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.\n\nNote: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.","Will Russia enter Kindrashivka by...? is a geopolitics prediction market on whether Russian forces will capture any part of Kindrashivka in Kharkiv Oblast before the February 28, 2026 deadline. The event is tied to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) map, which serves as the primary resolution source, with DeepStateMap or credible reporting used only if needed. In plain terms, traders are forecasting whether the village will show confirmed Russian control, infiltration, or gains on the map for a sustained update cycle before the cutoff. The market also allows a Yes resolution if Russia gains actual control through a negotiated settlement, but a de jure agreement alone is not enough. As a Ukraine-focused event in the broader geopolitics and politics categories, it reflects market sentiment around the pace of the war in northern Kharkiv Oblast and the likelihood of territorial change near the front line. Current market probability is not available in the supplied data, but the prediction market remains centered on the expected outcome of territorial capture by the specified deadline.",20544.413095000004,{"id":681,"title":682,"slug":683,"category":8,"subcategory":17,"tags":684,"probability":687,"createdAt":688,"updatedAt":689,"resolutionDate":22,"description":690,"summary":691,"volume1wk":692,"featured":149},"73951","Which countries will Trump make new trade deals with before 2027?","which-countries-will-trump-make-new-trade-deals-with-before-2027-921",[17,18,11,139,685,686],"Trade War","Tariffs",9,"2026-05-30T10:43:06.680Z","2026-05-30T10:35:41.269Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if a free trade agreement with the specified country or entity becomes law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThis includes both agreements that become law through Senate ratification and Presidential approval, or through the enactment of a Congressional-Executive Agreement signed into law by the President.\n\nThe resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.","Which countries will Trump make new trade deals with before 2027? is a geopolitics prediction market tracking whether new free trade agreements involving the United States are enacted into law by December 31, 2026. The forecast covers agreements approved through Senate ratification and presidential approval, or through a Congressional-Executive Agreement signed by the President, with resolution based on credible reporting. In plain terms, traders are pricing the odds that Trump will secure and finalize new trade deals with specified countries or entities before the deadline. This matters because trade negotiations can affect tariffs, market access, and the broader direction of U.S. trade policy amid ongoing trade war and geopolitics concerns. Current market probability is about 9%, suggesting sentiment is skeptical that a qualifying deal will be completed in time. The market opened on November 5, 2025 and runs through the end of 2026, making it a long-dated event prediction with attention on diplomatic progress, legislative approval, and any announced trade breakthroughs.",35267.667785000005,{"id":694,"title":695,"slug":696,"category":8,"subcategory":31,"tags":697,"probability":698,"createdAt":699,"updatedAt":700,"resolutionDate":38,"description":701,"summary":702,"volume1wk":703,"featured":149},"514425","Which countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?","which-countries-will-send-warships-through-the-strait-of-hormuz-by-june-30",[31,9,505,97,17,16],17,"2026-05-30T10:43:20.541Z","2026-05-30T10:35:25.506Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if a national government, its military, or a broad consensus of credible reporting confirms that the listed country's warships transited through the Strait of Hormuz between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nA \"warship transit\" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.\n\nOfficial confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.\n\nQualifying confirmations include statements such as official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.\n\nConfirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.","Which countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30? is a geopolitics prediction market tracking whether any national government or military confirms a warship transit through the Strait of Hormuz before the deadline on June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The market resolves \"Yes\" only if a listed country’s naval vessels are officially confirmed to have passed through the narrowest section of the waterway between Iran and Oman, or if credible reporting reaches an overwhelming consensus that the transit occurred. Operations elsewhere in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea do not count.\n\nThis forecast matters because the Strait of Hormuz is one of the world’s most strategically important maritime chokepoints, especially for oil shipping and regional security involving Iran, the U.S., and other naval powers. Traders are watching for any escalation, escort missions, or naval deployments that specifically include passage through the strait. Current market probability is about 17%, suggesting relatively low but non-trivial odds that at least one qualifying warship transit will be confirmed before the end date. The event is useful for gauging market sentiment on Middle East maritime risk and geopolitical escalation.",14548.879939,{"id":705,"title":706,"slug":707,"category":8,"subcategory":17,"tags":708,"probability":710,"createdAt":711,"updatedAt":712,"resolutionDate":22,"description":713,"summary":714,"volume1wk":715,"featured":149},"30828","Xi Jinping out before 2027?","xi-jinping-out-before-2027",[17,139,709,304,95,568],"world affairs",7.35,"2026-05-30T10:42:51.445Z","2026-05-30T10:35:09.094Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if China's General Secretary of the Communist Party, Xi Jinping, is removed from power for any length of time between July 3, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nCCP General Secretary Xi Jinping will be considered removed from power if he announces his resignation from his role as General Secretary, or is otherwise dismissed, detained, disqualified, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from fulfilling his duties as General Secretary within this market's timeframe.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.","Xi Jinping out before 2027? is a geopolitics prediction market asking whether China’s General Secretary, Xi Jinping, will be removed from power at any point between July 3, 2025, and December 31, 2026. The forecast resolves to Yes if he resigns, is dismissed, detained, disqualified, or otherwise loses the ability to serve as General Secretary during that timeframe; otherwise it resolves to No. The outcome matters because Xi’s position is central to China’s domestic political direction, party leadership stability, and broader world affairs. Traders in this market are weighing political continuity against the possibility of an abrupt leadership change, using credible reporting as the primary resolution source. Current market probability sits at about 7.35%, indicating that the prevailing market sentiment expects Xi to remain in power through the end of 2026, though prediction market odds can shift quickly as new geopolitical developments emerge. This event prediction is closely watched by those tracking macro geopolitics, China policy, and global risk.",239344.9579289999,{"id":717,"title":718,"slug":719,"category":8,"subcategory":720,"tags":721,"probability":530,"createdAt":723,"updatedAt":724,"resolutionDate":38,"description":725,"summary":726,"volume1wk":727,"featured":149},"521931","Özgür Özel arrested by June 30?","zgr-zel-arrested-by-june-30","Turkey",[720,17,18,722],"erdogan","2026-05-30T10:43:15.509Z","2026-05-30T10:35:04.810Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the listed individual is arrested by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA qualifying arrest\u002Fdetention includes:\n* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)\n* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant\n* Being formally booked or processed following detention\n* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station\n* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney\n* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring\n\nThe following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest\u002Fdetention\n* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed\n* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)\n* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest\n* Being named in an indictment without arrest\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.","Özgür Özel arrested by June 30? is a geopolitics prediction market on whether the Turkish opposition politician will be arrested or otherwise qualify as detained by June 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. The market resolves to Yes only if there is a qualifying arrest, detention, or related custody event under the stated rules; an arrest warrant alone does not count. This event is relevant to Turkey’s political climate because Özel is a prominent figure in domestic opposition politics, and any legal action against him could affect market sentiment around Turkish governance and political risk.\n\nThe current market probability is about 12.5%, suggesting traders see a relatively low chance of the expected outcome happening before the deadline. As a prediction market, it reflects event prediction and trader odds rather than certainty. Resolution will rely primarily on official information from the arresting authorities, though credible reporting may also be used when needed. The forecast window runs from May 25, 2026, through June 30, 2026, making this a time-sensitive geopolitical forecast focused on arrest, detention, and law-enforcement action in Turkey.",18934.335101000004,{"id":729,"title":730,"slug":731,"category":8,"subcategory":9,"tags":732,"probability":735,"createdAt":736,"updatedAt":737,"resolutionDate":61,"description":738,"summary":739,"volume1wk":740,"featured":149},"424345","Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by May 31?","pete-hegseth-out-as-secretary-of-defense-by-may-31",[9,17,11,733,18,16,734],"Trump Cabinet","Hegseth",0.05,"2026-05-30T10:42:59.075Z","2026-05-30T10:35:04.791Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if Pete Hegseth ceases to be U.S. Secretary of Defense for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn announcement of Pete Hegseth's resignation\u002Fremoval before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to \"Yes\", regardless of when the announced resignation\u002Fremoval goes into effect.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be official information from Pete Hegseth and the U.S. government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.","Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by May 31? is a geopolitics prediction market asking whether Pete Hegseth will cease to serve as U.S. Secretary of Defense at any point between market creation and May 31, 2026. The market resolves to Yes if a resignation, removal, or official announcement of departure occurs before the end date, even if the exit takes effect later. That makes the event a direct forecast of cabinet stability inside the Trump administration, with implications for U.S. politics and the broader Iran-related geopolitical category. The resolution source is official information from Hegseth and the U.S. government, though credible reporting may also be considered. As of the latest update, the market-implied probability is about 5%, suggesting traders currently see the expected outcome as unlikely. This prediction market is therefore centered on odds, market sentiment, and whether any confirmed change in leadership at the Department of Defense happens before the May 31 deadline.",75635.39875600007,{"id":742,"title":743,"slug":744,"category":8,"subcategory":33,"tags":745,"probability":74,"createdAt":748,"updatedAt":749,"resolutionDate":38,"description":750,"summary":751,"volume1wk":752,"featured":149},"146944","Israel military action against Yemen by...?","israel-strike-on-yemen-by-593",[33,139,157,154,17,746,595,747,597],"Military Strikes","strike","2026-05-30T10:43:12.934Z","2026-05-30T10:34:59.842Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Yemeni soil or any official Yemen embassy or consulate by the listed date, 11:59 PM Israeli local time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purposes of this market, a qualifying \"strike\" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Yemen ground territory or any official Yemen embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Yemen soil is hit by an Israeli missile, this market will resolve to \"Yes\").\n\nMissiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a \"Yes\" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Yemen territory or cause damage.\n\nActions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.\n\nThe resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.","Israel military action against Yemen by...? is a geopolitics prediction market asking whether Israel will initiate a qualifying drone, missile, or air strike on Yemeni soil, or on any official Yemen embassy or consulate, by the listed deadline of 11:59 PM Israeli local time on June 30, 2026. The event focuses on whether an Israeli military strike occurs under the market’s strict definition, which requires a successful aerial attack launched by Israeli forces and excludes intercepted missiles or drones, artillery, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, and other non-qualifying operations. Because the resolution will depend on credible reporting, traders are watching for confirmed evidence of escalation involving Israel, Yemen, and the Houthis, as well as broader regional spillover in the Middle East. Current market probability is about 11.5%, suggesting traders see the expected outcome as relatively unlikely, though not impossible. For prediction market participants, this event is a clear geopolitical forecast tied to conflict risk, military strikes, and Middle East security developments.",22096.119142,{"id":754,"title":755,"slug":756,"category":8,"subcategory":216,"tags":757,"probability":652,"createdAt":759,"updatedAt":760,"resolutionDate":38,"description":761,"summary":762,"volume1wk":763,"featured":149},"330210","Trump-Denmark Greenland deal signed by June 30?","trump-denmark-greenland-deal-signed-by-june-30-588",[216,461,17,11,758,18],"Denmark","2026-05-30T10:43:26.611Z","2026-05-30T10:34:49.544Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if both Denmark and the United States sign a deal, treaty, or similar international agreement of any kind relating to Greenland by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAny U.S.–Danish agreement relating to Greenland will qualify, regardless of subject matter, including but not limited to sovereignty, governance, security arrangements, or access to natural resources.\n\nExamples of qualifying deals include but are not limited to a treaty that makes any portion of Greenland a U.S. territory or possession (even if the handover date for such territory or possession is later); or, a Guantánamo-style arrangement treaty establishing a defined zone in Greenland under exclusive or primary U.S. jurisdiction and control, where Denmark and Greenland’s ordinary legal authority does not apply except by U.S. permission; or agreements permitting additional U.S. troop stationing, basing access, or resource extraction rights in Greenland.\n\nThis market will resolve to “Yes” only if a qualifying agreement is formally signed by authorized representatives of both Denmark and the United States. Official announcements, statements of intent, or declarations that an agreement has been reached will not suffice unless accompanied by signatures from both sides. Whether or not a qualifying deal is later passed by the respective parliaments or enters into force will not affect this market’s resolution. Signaling from Greenland’s population will not be considered.\n\nAnnouncements, negotiations, proposals, frameworks, or understandings that are not formally signed by both parties will not qualify. Any qualifying U.S. jurisdiction, control, basing rights, or access arrangements in Greenland that existed at market creation will not count as new qualifying agreements.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Denmark; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.","Trump-Denmark Greenland deal signed by June 30? is a geopolitics prediction market asking whether Denmark and the United States will formally sign a qualifying agreement relating to Greenland by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The forecast is specific: a signed treaty or similar international deal must be executed by authorized representatives of both governments, while announcements, negotiations, or unsigned frameworks will not count. The agreement could cover sovereignty, governance, security arrangements, troop basing, access rights, or natural resources, so traders are watching for any official U.S.-Danish action that could alter Greenland’s strategic status. This event matters because Greenland sits at the center of broader NATO and Arctic geopolitics, with implications for defense posture and regional influence. Current market sentiment puts the probability at about 14.5%, suggesting traders see a signed deal as possible but not the expected outcome. The market opened on April 1, 2026 and resolves at the end of June, making the next weeks critical for event prediction and odds to shift as official statements, reporting, or diplomatic developments emerge.",9988.736106,{"id":765,"title":766,"slug":767,"category":8,"subcategory":9,"tags":768,"probability":769,"createdAt":770,"updatedAt":771,"resolutionDate":61,"description":772,"summary":773,"volume1wk":774,"featured":149},"429441","Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31?","iran-agrees-to-unrestricted-shipping-through-hormuz-by-may-31",[9,31,16,13,18,17],4,"2026-05-30T10:42:49.062Z","2026-05-30T10:34:41.387Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Iran publicly agrees to allow unrestricted commercial navigation of the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nIran allowing unrestricted commercial navigation of the Strait of Hormuz refers to a public agreement by Iran that commercial vessels may transit the Strait of Hormuz without Iranian authorization\u002Fpermission, payment of fees to Iran, or other Iran-imposed restrictions. A public agreement that all restrictions imposed on commercial vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz by Iran as part of the US-Iran conflict which began on February 28, 2026, will be definitively lifted, without replacement by new restrictions, will qualify.\n\nA qualifying agreement must clearly indicate that Iran will not impose restrictions on commercial transit through the Strait of Hormuz. General statements about the strait being “open”, de-escalation, security, increased transit in the Strait, or stability in the region, which do not clearly indicate that Iran will allow unrestricted commercial transit through the Strait of Hormuz, will not qualify.\n\nAn official pledge by Iran to allow unrestricted commercial navigation of the Strait of Hormuz will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.\n\nAny agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if\u002Fwhen the agreement goes into effect.\n\nAn agreement by Iran to allow unrestricted commercial navigation of the Strait of Hormuz as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.\n\nThe primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the government of Iran and a consensus of credible reporting.","Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31? is a geopolitics prediction market on whether Iran will publicly agree to allow unrestricted commercial navigation through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The forecast centers on a clear pledge that commercial vessels may transit the strait without Iranian authorization, fees, or other Iran-imposed restrictions. General claims that the strait is “open” or that tensions are easing do not qualify under the market rules.\n\nThis event matters because the Strait of Hormuz is one of the world’s most important shipping lanes, and any change in Iran’s policy could affect regional security, U.S.-Iran relations, and commercial trade flows. The market resolves to Yes if Iran makes a qualifying public agreement before the deadline, whether unilaterally or as part of a broader deal with the U.S. or Israel.\n\nCurrent market probability is about 4%, suggesting traders see a low expected outcome for a qualifying agreement before expiration. Resolution will rely on official Iranian statements and credible reporting.",485498.46900400025,{"id":776,"title":777,"slug":778,"category":8,"subcategory":17,"tags":779,"probability":19,"createdAt":781,"updatedAt":782,"resolutionDate":294,"description":783,"summary":784,"volume1wk":785,"featured":149},"42958","Russian strike on Poland by...?","russian-strike-on-poland-by-september-30",[17,141,139,780],"Poland","2026-05-30T10:42:47.844Z","2026-05-30T10:34:38.553Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Russia initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Polish soil or any official Polish embassy or consulate between September 9, 9 PM ET and September 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purposes of this market, a qualifying \"strike\" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Russian military forces that impact Polish ground territory or any official Polish embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Polish soil is hit by a Russian missile, this market will resolve to \"Yes\").\n\nMissiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a \"Yes\" resolution regardless of whether they land on Polish territory or cause damage.\n\nActions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Russian ground operatives will not qualify.\n\nThe resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.","\"Russian strike on Poland by...?\" is a geopolitics prediction market asking whether Russia will initiate a drone, missile, or air strike on Polish soil, or on any official Polish embassy or consulate, during the stated resolution window beginning September 9, 2025 at 9 PM ET and ending September 30, 2025 at 11:59 PM ET. The market resolves to Yes only if a qualifying Russian aerial strike lands on Polish territory or an official Polish diplomatic facility; intercepted missiles or drones do not count, and ground attacks, cyberattacks, artillery fire, or naval shelling are excluded under the rules. This event matters because it tracks escalation risk between Russia and Poland, both key entities in broader European security and the Russia-Ukraine conflict environment. As a prediction market, it reflects trader expectations and market sentiment on the odds of a direct Russian strike, with the current market probability shown at 0%, indicating traders currently see the outcome as very unlikely. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting, making accurate and timely news coverage central to the final event prediction.",757663.6387290002,{"id":787,"title":788,"slug":789,"category":8,"subcategory":17,"tags":790,"probability":793,"createdAt":794,"updatedAt":795,"resolutionDate":22,"description":796,"summary":797,"volume1wk":798,"featured":149},"435099","Crude Oil all time high by...?","crude-oil-all-time-high-by",[17,791,97,792,9],"Commodities","Finance",0.3,"2026-05-30T10:42:52.729Z","2026-05-30T10:34:27.339Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if, on any trading day after market creation, the official daily high price published by the CME Group for the Active Month (front month) of CME Crude Oil (CL) futures is greater than $147.27 by the final trading day on or before the specified date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example, if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.\n\nThis market will resolve as soon as a high price greater than the listed value is published, or once finalized data for the final trading day of the specified time period is published and a high price greater than $147.27 has not been achieved.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the CME Group website (https:\u002F\u002Fwww.cmegroup.com\u002Fmarkets\u002Fenergy\u002Fcrude-oil\u002Flight-sweet-crude.quotes.html) — specifically, the daily \"High\" prices for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.","Crude Oil all time high by...? is a geopolitics prediction market asking whether CME front-month crude oil futures will trade above $147.27 before the market’s deadline on December 31, 2026. The contract resolves “Yes” if the CME Group’s official daily high for the active month of CME Crude Oil (CL) futures exceeds that level on any trading day after market creation; otherwise it resolves “No.” Because the market uses the active month front contract, it tracks the nearest listed CL futures month and can settle as soon as qualifying CME data is published. This event matters because crude oil prices are closely watched across geopolitics, commodities, finance, and energy markets, with traders often using prediction markets to gauge market sentiment around supply shocks, inflation, and Iran-related risk. Current market probability stands at about 30%, suggesting traders see the odds of a new all-time high as possible but far from assured. The forecast is therefore centered on whether crude oil can break its prior peak before the end-of-year cutoff, making this a closely watched event prediction for energy and geopolitics watchers.",177506.47617,{"id":800,"title":801,"slug":802,"category":8,"subcategory":205,"tags":803,"probability":804,"createdAt":805,"updatedAt":806,"resolutionDate":452,"description":807,"summary":808,"volume1wk":809,"featured":149},"508270","Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by...?","will-russia-capture-mala-tokmachka-by",[205,142,17],6.5,"2026-05-30T10:42:59.542Z","2026-05-30T10:34:23.413Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 47.540813° N, 35.885706° E in Mala Tokmachka, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, by the specified date 11:59 PM ET.\n\nThe intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https:\u002F\u002Fstorymaps.arcgis.com\u002Fstories\u002F36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.\n\nFor any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.\n\nIf Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.\n\nOnce Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.\n\nIntersection Location: https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com\u002FMala+Tokmachka1.png\n\nIntersection Location in Mala Tokmachka: https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com\u002FMala+Tokmachka2.png\n\nMala Tokmachka Location: https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com\u002FMala+Tokmachka3.png\n\nLocation on Google Maps: https:\u002F\u002Fmaps.app.goo.gl\u002FqFjruKqP6iK2M6NM8\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https:\u002F\u002Fdeepstatemap.live\u002F) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.\n\nNote: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.","Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by...? is a geopolitics prediction market focused on whether Russian forces will take control of the specified intersection in Mala Tokmachka, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, by the resolution deadline of 11:59 PM ET on 2026-09-30. The market resolves “Yes” only if the location is shown as Russian-controlled on the ISW Ukraine map, or if control is otherwise established under the event rules. Traders are effectively forecasting an expected outcome based on battlefield developments in the Ukraine map category, with the result determined by persistent red shading on the ISW map or, if needed, fallback reporting sources.\n\nThis event matters because small territorial changes can signal broader shifts in the Zaporizhzhia front and shape market sentiment around the pace of the war. The current market probability is about 6.5%, indicating traders see a relatively low chance of capture before the deadline, though odds can change as new reporting and map updates emerge. As with other prediction market events, the forecast reflects collective beliefs about future control rather than a guarantee of what will happen.",70109.27300300001,{"id":811,"title":812,"slug":813,"category":8,"subcategory":18,"tags":814,"probability":815,"createdAt":816,"updatedAt":817,"resolutionDate":38,"description":818,"summary":819,"volume1wk":820,"featured":149},"107725","Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30?","ukraine-signs-peace-deal-with-russia-by-june-30",[18,17,142,139,554],4.35,"2026-05-30T10:43:06.596Z","2026-05-30T10:34:22.292Z","This market will resolve to “Yes”  if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire\u002Farmistice, framework\u002F“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities\u002Festablishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace\u002Fnormalization plus principles, steps, and\u002For a timetable) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. \n\nOnly Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.\n\nLocalized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade\u002Fexport arrangements, border\u002FDMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector\u002Ffront\u002Fmunicipality—will not qualify.\n\nThe document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted. \n\nThe primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. ","Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30? is a geopolitics prediction market asking whether Ukraine will sign a written peace-related agreement with the Russian Federation by June 30, 2026. The forecasted outcome is narrowly defined: the document must be signed by an authorized Ukrainian representative and must either establish a ceasefire or set out a formal process toward ending the war, including principles, steps, or a timetable for peace or normalization. Temporary arrangements such as localized truces, humanitarian pauses, prisoner exchanges, or sector-specific deconfliction deals do not qualify. The market runs through June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and resolution will rely on credible reporting. Current market probability is about 4.35%, suggesting traders see a peace deal as possible but unlikely before the deadline. As a prediction market event in politics and geopolitics, it reflects market sentiment around the expected outcome of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the odds that a formal agreement will be signed in time.",35614.654067999996,{"id":822,"title":823,"slug":824,"category":8,"subcategory":825,"tags":826,"probability":828,"createdAt":829,"updatedAt":830,"resolutionDate":61,"description":831,"summary":832,"volume1wk":833,"featured":149},"400310","Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31?","gaza-flotilla-enters-israeli-waters-by-31","Greta",[825,827,291,154,17],"Thunberg",0.5,"2026-05-30T10:43:23.614Z","2026-05-30T10:34:20.947Z","A flotilla organized by the Global Sumud Flotilla, among others, set sail from Spain on April 15, 2026 to deliver aid to Gaza (see: https:\u002F\u002Fapnews.com\u002Farticle\u002Fglobal-sumud-flotilla-gaza-aid-spain-israel-94b09412fdcb1a0fd6a6e0c981479539). \n\nThis market will resolve to “Yes” if any vessel which is part of this flotilla enters Israel’s territorial sea by May 31, 2026 (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, Israel’s territorial sea includes the territorial waters off the coast of Gaza that are controlled by Israel.\n\nThe primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.\n","Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31? is a geopolitics prediction market focused on whether any vessel in the Global Sumud Flotilla will enter Israel’s territorial sea by May 31, 2026 (ET). The flotilla, which departed Spain on April 15, 2026, was organized to deliver aid to Gaza, making the event relevant to ongoing tensions involving Gaza, Israel, and maritime access. For market resolution, Israel’s territorial sea includes the waters off Gaza that are controlled by Israel, and the outcome will be determined from credible reporting. The forecast asks a simple yes-or-no question: will a flotilla vessel cross into the defined Israeli waters before the deadline, or not? Traders are currently assigning roughly 50% probability, suggesting mixed market sentiment and an event prediction with substantial uncertainty. As the May 31 cutoff approaches, news developments, navigation decisions, and reporting on the flotilla’s route will likely shape the expected outcome and the odds implied by the prediction market.",11866.259014000003,{"id":835,"title":836,"slug":837,"category":8,"subcategory":17,"tags":838,"probability":839,"createdAt":840,"updatedAt":841,"resolutionDate":61,"description":842,"summary":843,"volume1wk":844,"featured":149},"390108","Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to \"Strait of Trump\" by May 31?","trump-renames-straight-of-hormuz-to-strait-of-trump-by-may-31",[17,11,9,18,13,31],0.25,"2026-05-30T10:42:54.387Z","2026-05-30T10:34:04.667Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Donald Trump publicly announces, that the United States will officially refer to the Strait of Hormuz as the \"Strait of Trump\" or \"Trump Strait\" or any equivalent name which includes \"Trump\" by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Donald Trump however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.","Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to \"Strait of Trump\" by May 31? is a geopolitics prediction market that asks whether Donald Trump will publicly announce that the United States should officially refer to the Strait of Hormuz by a new name including \"Trump\"—such as \"Strait of Trump\" or \"Trump Strait\"—by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The market resolves \"Yes\" only if that announcement is made, with the primary resolution source being Trump’s own public statements and, if needed, credible reporting. This event matters because the Strait of Hormuz is a strategically important shipping lane tied to Iran, regional security, and global energy flows, so any naming change would carry political and diplomatic significance. Current market probability is about 25%, suggesting traders see the event as possible but not the expected outcome. The forecast window runs from the market’s start on April 17, 2026 through the May 31 deadline, and market sentiment will likely reflect developments in Trump, Iran, and broader Middle East geopolitics.",140661.65835299998,{"id":846,"title":847,"slug":848,"category":8,"subcategory":100,"tags":849,"probability":339,"createdAt":850,"updatedAt":851,"resolutionDate":61,"description":852,"summary":853,"volume1wk":854,"featured":149},"329821","Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?","strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-end-of-may",[100,17,16,34,95,97,31,98,99,303,9],"2026-05-30T10:42:43.838Z","2026-05-30T10:34:04.004Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nDaily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on\u002Froll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.\n\nThis market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.\n\nRevisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for May 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https:\u002F\u002Fportwatch.imf.org\u002Fpages\u002Fcb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.","Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? is a geopolitics prediction market focused on whether ship transit through this key Middle East chokepoint will recover to a 7-day moving average of at least 60 “Arrivals of Ships” by May 31, 2026. The forecast is based on IMF Portwatch transit calls data for the Strait of Hormuz, including container, dry bulk, roll-on\u002Froll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. In practice, traders are watching whether the expected outcome for regional shipping activity and oil-related logistics improves before the end-of-month deadline.\n\nThe market matters because the Strait of Hormuz is one of the world’s most important maritime routes, with direct implications for energy markets, trade flows, and broader U.S. x Iran geopolitical risk. Current market probability is about 35%, suggesting traders see a limited but meaningful chance of a return to normal traffic levels before resolution. The event prediction will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes qualifying data, or at the close of the measurement window if no such reading appears.",10857439.590805996,{"id":856,"title":857,"slug":858,"category":8,"subcategory":139,"tags":859,"probability":860,"createdAt":861,"updatedAt":862,"resolutionDate":22,"description":863,"summary":864,"volume1wk":865,"featured":149},"34051","Netanyahu out by...?","netanyahu-out-before-2027",[139,17,33,154,18,304],53.5,"2026-05-30T10:42:49.232Z","2026-05-30T10:34:01.136Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Benjamin Netanyahu announces that he will resign as Prime Minister of Israel, or otherwise steps down from\u002Fis removed from this position by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nNote that an announcement of Benjamin Netanyahu's resignation or removal before the resolution date will suffice to resolve this market to \"Yes\" regardless of if\u002Fwhen he actually steps down.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the State of Israel, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.","\"Netanyahu out by...?\" is a geopolitics prediction market on whether Benjamin Netanyahu will announce his resignation as Prime Minister of Israel, or otherwise step down from or be removed from the role, by December 31, 2026. The market resolves to Yes if an official resignation or removal announcement occurs before the deadline, even if the actual transition happens later. If no such announcement or change in office is confirmed by the end date, the outcome resolves to No.\n\nThis event matters because it tracks political stability in Israel and broader Middle East developments, making it relevant to traders following World politics, Israeli government leadership, and event prediction markets. The primary resolution source is official information from the government of the State of Israel, with credible reporting also considered.\n\nAs of the latest update, market probability is around 53.5%, suggesting traders see the outcome as slightly more likely than not, though not certain. The forecast remains active through the end-of-2026 deadline, so sentiment and odds may shift as political conditions change.",470688.30231599987,{"id":867,"title":868,"slug":869,"category":8,"subcategory":205,"tags":870,"probability":19,"createdAt":871,"updatedAt":872,"resolutionDate":61,"description":873,"summary":874,"volume1wk":875,"featured":149},"164330","Will Russia capture Bilytske by...?","will-russia-capture-bilytske-by",[205,17,142,18],"2026-05-30T10:43:22.542Z","2026-05-30T10:33:54.956Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the building located at 48.40731° N, 37.17956° E in Bilytske, Donetsk Oblast, by the specified date ET.\n\nThe building will be considered captured if any part of the building is shaded red under a below-specified layer on the ISW map (https:\u002F\u002Fstorymaps.arcgis.com\u002Fstories\u002F36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date ET, the market will resolve to “No”.\n\nFor any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.\n\nIf Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.\n\nOnce Russia captures the building under the above-specified conditions, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.\n\nBuilding Location: https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com\u002FBP1.png\n\nBuilding Location in Bilytske: https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com\u002FBP2.png\n\nBilytske Location: https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com\u002FBP3.png\n\nLocation on Google Maps: https:\u002F\u002Fmaps.app.goo.gl\u002FJ8DsAv3gKWbD4DSD9\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https:\u002F\u002Fdeepstatemap.live\u002F) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap is rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.\n\nNote: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.","Will Russia capture Bilytske by...? is a geopolitics prediction market focused on whether Russian forces will take control of a specific building in Bilytske, Donetsk Oblast, by the market’s resolution date. The market resolves “Yes” if the building at 48.40731° N, 37.17956° E is shown as captured on the ISW Ukraine map, with qualifying control required to persist through the next full daily update cycle. If ISW is unavailable, DeepStateMap or credible reporting may be used. The forecasted outcome is straightforward: traders are pricing the probability that Russia will establish actual control over the location before the deadline. This event matters because it tracks battlefield movement in eastern Ukraine and reflects market sentiment on the pace of Russian advances. The market opened on 2026-01-14 and is set to resolve by 2026-05-31 ET. Current market probability is 0%, which suggests traders currently see no expected capture by the cutoff, though odds can change as conditions on the ground evolve. As a Ukraine Map event prediction, it is part of a broader set of geopolitical forecasts tied to territorial control, map-based verification, and real-time developments in the war.",12296.062712000003,{"id":877,"title":878,"slug":879,"category":8,"subcategory":9,"tags":880,"probability":230,"createdAt":884,"updatedAt":885,"resolutionDate":61,"description":886,"summary":887,"volume1wk":888,"featured":149},"432225","Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of May?","avg-of-ships-transiting-strait-of-hormuz-end-of-may",[9,592,97,34,881,17,882,16,31,883],"Hormoz","tanker","Rewards 300 4.5 50","2026-05-30T10:42:52.079Z","2026-05-30T10:33:53.295Z","This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for May 31, 2026.\n\nIf the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nTransit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on\u002Froll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.\n\nThis market will resolve as soon as data for the specified date has been published. If no data for the specified date has been published by June 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to May 31, 2026, for which data is available.\n\nThis market will resolve based on the first publication of data for May 31, 2026. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https:\u002F\u002Fportwatch.imf.org\u002Fpages\u002Fcb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.","Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of May? is a geopolitics prediction market focused on the 7-day moving average of vessel transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz for May 31, 2026, using IMF Portwatch data. The market forecast is not about a single ship crossing, but about the average level of traffic reported for container, dry bulk, roll-on\u002Froll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. That makes the event relevant to traders watching Iran, U.S.-Iran tensions, Hormuz shipping traffic, and broader oil-linked maritime risk. The market will resolve when IMF Portwatch publishes the first qualifying May 31 data, with a fallback to the most recent prior date if no data is available by June 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. If the reported figure falls exactly between two brackets, the higher range resolves the market. Current market probability is around 7%, indicating a low expected outcome and cautious market sentiment. As a prediction market, it reflects trader expectations about end-of-month shipping activity in one of the world’s most strategically important chokepoints.",219675.78330799998,{"id":890,"title":891,"slug":892,"category":8,"subcategory":893,"tags":894,"probability":735,"createdAt":898,"updatedAt":899,"resolutionDate":61,"description":900,"summary":901,"volume1wk":902,"featured":149},"427967","Precipitation in Hong Kong in May?","precipitation-in-hong-kong-in-may","Science",[893,303,895,896,897],"Hong Kong","Weather","Precipitation","2026-05-30T10:43:07.988Z","2026-05-30T10:33:35.755Z","This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm in Hong Kong between May 1 and May 31, 2026, according to the Hong Kong Observatory.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the \"Total Rainfall (mm)\" figure for all days in May 2026 under the \"Daily Extract\" at the https:\u002F\u002Fwww.weather.gov.hk\u002Fen\u002Fcis\u002Fclimat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.\n\nIf the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.\n\nIf the relevant data is not available by July 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.\n\nThe resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.","Precipitation in Hong Kong in May? is a prediction market forecasting the total rainfall in Hong Kong during May 1–31, 2026, using the Hong Kong Observatory’s final “Total Rainfall (mm)” figure. This event asks traders to estimate how much precipitation the city will record over the month, with resolution based on the Observatory’s Daily Extract once the figures are finalized. Because the market is tied to a specific scientific data source, it reflects a weather and science forecast rather than a political outcome, even though it is listed under the geopolitics category. The market will resolve according to the reported rainfall total to one decimal place, and if the result falls exactly between two brackets, it resolves to the higher bracket. If the data is still unavailable by July 7, 2026, another credible source may be used. Current market probability is around 5%, suggesting traders see this outcome as relatively unlikely, though not impossible. For those following prediction market odds and market sentiment, this is a straightforward event prediction centered on Hong Kong weather data.",32614.005597,{"id":904,"title":905,"slug":906,"category":8,"subcategory":18,"tags":907,"probability":74,"createdAt":908,"updatedAt":909,"resolutionDate":22,"description":910,"summary":911,"volume1wk":912,"featured":149},"73070","NATO article 5 before 2027?","nato-article-5-before-2027",[18,241,139,17,216],"2026-05-30T10:43:16.673Z","2026-05-30T10:33:31.851Z","If any NATO member country invokes Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty at any time between November 5, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Yes\". Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from NATO (nato.int), however a consensus of credible media will also suffice.","NATO article 5 before 2027? is a geopolitics prediction market asking whether any NATO member country will invoke Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty between November 5, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The forecast resolves to “Yes” if NATO officially confirms an Article 5 invocation, with credible media consensus also serving as a resolution source if needed. This makes the event a focused test of market sentiment around NATO, foreign policy, and broader world security risks.\n\nTraders are effectively pricing the expected outcome of whether a collective defense trigger is formally used within the stated timeframe. As of the latest data, the market implies a probability of 11.5%, suggesting that participants see the event as possible but not the base-case scenario. The listing is relevant for analysts following geopolitical probability, NATO-related event prediction, and how odds shift in response to international tensions, alliance behavior, and crisis escalation. With activity concentrated in politics and geopolitics, this prediction market provides a concise signal on how the crowd weighs the likelihood of a major NATO security response before 2027.",18082.297407,{"id":914,"title":915,"slug":916,"category":8,"subcategory":917,"tags":918,"probability":919,"createdAt":920,"updatedAt":921,"resolutionDate":922,"description":923,"summary":924,"volume1wk":925,"featured":149},"507741","How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of May 25?","how-many-ships-transit-the-strait-of-hormuz-week-of-may-25","Rewards 50, 4.5, 20",[917,17,882,31,34,97,9],30.5,"2026-05-30T10:42:58.335Z","2026-05-30T10:33:26.633Z","2026-06-01T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve according to the finalized total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from May 25, 2026, through June 1, 2026, inclusive.\n\nTransit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on\u002Froll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.\n\nData for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized). \n\nThis market will resolve as soon as data has been finalized for the final date in the specified period. If the data for the final date of the specified period has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which data is released for the final date in that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if data has not been released for any day in the specified period within 14 calendar days of the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.\n\nIn case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which data is released for the final date in the specified period to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.\n\nOnly revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https:\u002F\u002Fportwatch.imf.org\u002Fpages\u002Fcb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.","How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of May 25? is a geopolitics prediction market forecasting the total number of transit calls recorded by IMF Portwatch across the Strait of Hormuz from May 25, 2026, through June 1, 2026. The event focuses on reported ship traffic in one of the world’s most strategically important waterways, where tanker, container, dry bulk, roll-on\u002Froll-off, and general cargo movements can reflect broader market sentiment around regional stability, oil flows, and maritime risk. Only transit calls published by IMF Portwatch count toward resolution, and the market will settle once the final date in the period is finalized under the source’s reporting rules. The event starts on May 22, 2026 and ends on June 1, 2026. Traders currently assign it a 30.5% probability, indicating a measured forecast rather than a certain expected outcome. As a prediction market, it provides a real-time view of odds and event prediction around shipping activity in the Strait of Hormuz, a route closely watched for its geopolitical and energy-market implications.",80508.503907,{"id":927,"title":928,"slug":929,"category":8,"subcategory":11,"tags":930,"probability":129,"createdAt":931,"updatedAt":932,"resolutionDate":38,"description":933,"summary":934,"volume1wk":935,"featured":149},"206793"," Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?","iran-agrees-to-end-enrichment-of-uranium-by-june-30",[11,17,18,112,33,139,9,13],"2026-05-30T10:42:51.905Z","2026-05-30T10:33:25.593Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.\n\nAny agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if\u002Fwhen the agreement goes into effect.\n\nAn agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.\n\nAn agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. \n\nAgreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. ","Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? is a geopolitics prediction market focused on whether Iran will publicly agree to stop all uranium enrichment before the June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET deadline. The market resolves to Yes only if Iran makes a qualifying public pledge, either on its own or as part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel. A temporary commitment, an agreement tied to a broader peace process, or a pledge made before the deadline would count, but a mere cap or reduction in enrichment levels would not.\n\nThis event matters because uranium enrichment is central to nuclear nonproliferation, Middle East security, and U.S.-Iran negotiations, making it a closely watched geopolitical forecast. Market sentiment currently places the probability at 26.5%, suggesting traders see the outcome as possible but not the base case. As a prediction market with active trading, it reflects evolving odds around diplomacy, regional conflict, and nuclear policy. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.",222019.73939699994,{"id":937,"title":938,"slug":939,"category":8,"subcategory":205,"tags":940,"probability":19,"createdAt":941,"updatedAt":942,"resolutionDate":61,"description":943,"summary":944,"volume1wk":945,"featured":149},"194051","Will Russia capture all of Ternuvate by...?","will-russia-capture-all-of-ternuvate-by-february-28",[205,18,17,142],"2026-05-30T10:43:20.809Z","2026-05-30T10:33:18.099Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the entirety of Ternuvate, Zaporizhzhya Oblast, (47.8301° N, 36.1268° E) by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.\n\nTernuvate will be considered captured if the entirety of the municipality is shaded red on the ISW map (https:\u002F\u002Fstorymaps.arcgis.com\u002Fstories\u002F36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”.\n\nFor any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.\n\nThe territory of the municipality is shaded in light grey and is distinguished from bordering municipalities with a darker grey line. If all area within the municipality is shaded in red, however, the shading does not precisely match up with the border such that there is a tiny amount of grey along the border of the city, this will still qualify for a \"Yes\" resolution.\n\nOnce Russia captures the entirety of Ternuvate, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.\n\nLocation on Google maps: https:\u002F\u002Fmaps.app.goo.gl\u002FdSsbhxhymtVQgM7RA \n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https:\u002F\u002Fdeepstatemap.live\u002F) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.\n\nNote: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.\n\nIf Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.","Will Russia capture all of Ternuvate by...? is a geopolitics prediction market on whether Russian forces will take full control of Ternuvate, Zaporizhzhya Oblast, by the market’s resolution deadline. The event focuses on the territory being marked as entirely under Russian control on the ISW Ukraine map, with DeepStateMap or credible reporting used only if the primary source is unavailable. In plain terms, traders are forecasting whether the municipality of Ternuvate will be fully captured rather than partially contested, with temporary map glitches excluded from resolution. The market also allows for a Yes outcome if Russia gains actual control through a negotiated settlement. The forecast is time-bound, with the referenced deadline set for February 28, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. As of the latest available data, market probability is 0%, suggesting no priced-in expectation of a successful capture. This event sits in the Ukraine Map subcategory and reflects broader market sentiment on the pace and extent of territorial change in the Russia-Ukraine war.",14293.535252000001,{"id":947,"title":948,"slug":949,"category":8,"subcategory":205,"tags":950,"probability":19,"createdAt":951,"updatedAt":952,"resolutionDate":61,"description":953,"summary":954,"volume1wk":955,"featured":149},"100406","Will Russia enter Dobropillia by...?","will-russia-enter-dobropillia-by-january-31",[205,142,17],"2026-05-30T10:43:22.281Z","2026-05-30T10:33:07.889Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures any territory of Dobropillia by January 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET.\n\nTerritory will be considered captured if any part of Dobropillia is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https:\u002F\u002Fstorymaps.arcgis.com\u002Fstories\u002F36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.\n\nFor any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either \"Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine\", “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. \n\nOnce a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.\n\nIf Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https:\u002F\u002Fdeepstatemap.live\u002F) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.\n\nNote: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.","“Will Russia enter Dobropillia by...?” is a geopolitics prediction market focused on whether Russia will capture any territory in Dobropillia, Ukraine, by the market’s resolution deadline of January 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. The event is tied to the ISW Ukraine map, with DeepStateMap or credible reporting used only if the primary sources are unavailable. In plain terms, traders are forecasting whether any part of Dobropillia will be shown under Russian control, infiltration, advance, or gains on the relevant map updates, with the qualifying shading required to persist through the next full daily cycle.\n\nThis market matters because it tracks real-time battlefield developments in the Ukraine war and reflects market sentiment on Russia’s territorial progress. Negotiated control of the area would also qualify if actual control is established. As a prediction market, it provides a probability-based view of the expected outcome rather than a certainty. Current market probability is 0%, indicating very low odds at the time of the latest update. The event sits within the Ukraine Map subcategory and is tagged to Ukraine and Geopolitics.",12644.698967999999,{"id":957,"title":958,"slug":959,"category":8,"subcategory":18,"tags":960,"probability":19,"createdAt":961,"updatedAt":962,"resolutionDate":61,"description":963,"summary":964,"volume1wk":965,"featured":149},"191885","Will Russia capture Havrylivka by...?","will-russia-capture-havrylivka-by-february-28",[18,142,17,205],"2026-05-30T10:43:02.041Z","2026-05-30T10:33:02.868Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 48.0728° N, 36.5235° E in Havrylivka by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.\n\nThe intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https:\u002F\u002Fstorymaps.arcgis.com\u002Fstories\u002F36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.\n\nFor any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.\n\nIf Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.\n\nOnce Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.\n\nIntersection Location: https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com\u002FHavrylivka+1.png\n\nIntersection Location in Havrylivka: https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com\u002FHavrylivka+2.png\n\nHavrylivka Location: https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com\u002FHavrylivka+3.png\n\nLocation on Google Maps: https:\u002F\u002Fmaps.app.goo.gl\u002FbpdGhKirAxb1ZT3k9\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https:\u002F\u002Fdeepstatemap.live\u002F) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.\n\nNote: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.","Will Russia capture Havrylivka by...? is a geopolitics prediction market focused on whether Russian forces will capture the specified intersection in Havrylivka, Ukraine, by the resolution deadline at 11:59 PM ET on February 28. The market resolves using the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) map, with DeepStateMap or credible reporting used only if the primary sources are unavailable. To count as a “Yes,” the intersection must be shaded red on the ISW map in a way that indicates Russian control and persists through the next full update cycle; a negotiated settlement that establishes actual Russian control would also qualify. Temporary map glitches do not count, and the intersection location is defined precisely in the market rules.\n\nThis event matters because it tracks battlefield developments in the Ukraine war and the market sentiment around territorial control in a specific location. As a prediction market, it reflects traders’ event prediction and odds rather than a certainty. The current probability is 0%, suggesting the market is not pricing in a Russian capture before the deadline. Tags such as Ukraine, Geopolitics, Politics, and Ukraine Map reinforce the event’s focus on military and territorial forecasting.",54114.737307,{"id":967,"title":968,"slug":969,"category":8,"subcategory":142,"tags":970,"probability":19,"createdAt":971,"updatedAt":972,"resolutionDate":61,"description":973,"summary":974,"volume1wk":975,"featured":149},"73058","Will Russia capture all of Vovchansk by...?","will-russia-capture-all-of-vovchansk-by",[142,17,205,18,242,141,264,265],"2026-05-30T10:42:54.917Z","2026-05-30T10:33:01.091Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the entirety of Vovchansk by November 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.\n\nVovchansk will be considered captured if the entirety of the municipality is shaded red on the ISW map (https:\u002F\u002Fstorymaps.arcgis.com\u002Fstories\u002F36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by November 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”.\n\nIf the territory of municipality is shaded light grey, and is distinguished from bordering municipalities such as \"Vovchanski Khutory\" with a darker grey line. If all area within the municipality is shaded in red, however, the shading does not precisely match up with the border such that there is a tiny amount of grey along the border of the city, this will still qualify for a \"Yes\" resolution.\n\nOnce Russia captures Vovchansk, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.\n\nVovchansk Location: https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com\u002FVovchansk.png \nLocation on Google Maps: https:\u002F\u002Fmaps.app.goo.gl\u002FpEumzu6kdCPQ2sYt7\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https:\u002F\u002Fdeepstatemap.live\u002F) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap is rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.\n\nNote: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.\n\nIf Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.\n","Will Russia capture all of Vovchansk by...? is a geopolitics prediction market focused on whether Russian forces will gain control of the entire municipality of Vovchansk in Ukraine by the resolution deadline. The market resolves “Yes” if the ISW Ukraine map shows the full municipality shaded red by November 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, with DeepStateMap or credible reporting used only if the primary source is unavailable. It also allows a “Yes” if Russia secures actual control through a negotiated settlement, provided control is established rather than merely announced. Vovchansk is located in Ukraine’s Kharkiv region, making it a closely watched site in the broader Russia-Ukraine war and military actions category. For traders following geopolitical forecast markets, the event centers on territorial control, map-based verification, and the likelihood that Russia can capture and hold the area before the deadline. Current market probability is 0, suggesting no active pricing signal is available at the moment. As with other event prediction contracts, odds and market sentiment may change as battlefield conditions, reporting, and map updates evolve.",133988.66033999997,{"id":977,"title":978,"slug":979,"category":8,"subcategory":142,"tags":980,"probability":919,"createdAt":981,"updatedAt":982,"resolutionDate":22,"description":983,"summary":984,"volume1wk":985,"featured":149},"73056","Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?","ukraine-signs-peace-deal-with-russia-before-2027",[142,241,18,17,139,554],"2026-05-30T10:42:49.017Z","2026-05-30T10:32:52.939Z","This market will resolve to “Yes”  if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire\u002Farmistice, framework\u002F“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities\u002Festablishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace\u002Fnormalization plus principles, steps, and\u002For a timetable) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. \n\nOnly Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.\n\nLocalized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade\u002Fexport arrangements, border\u002FDMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector\u002Ffront\u002Fmunicipality—will not qualify.\n\nThe document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted. \n\nThe primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. \n","Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? is a geopolitics prediction market focused on whether Ukraine will sign a qualifying written peace agreement, ceasefire, or formal roadmap with the Russian Federation by December 31, 2026. The market definition is specific: the document must include both countries as parties and either end hostilities or commit both sides to a defined process toward ending the war. Temporary or limited arrangements, such as localized ceasefires, humanitarian pauses, or prisoner-exchange deals, do not count. Only Ukraine’s signature is required for resolution, and the primary source will be consensus credible reporting. With the market currently implying about a 30.5% probability, traders are pricing in a meaningful but still limited chance of an event prediction outcome that would mark a major shift in the Russia-Ukraine conflict. The start date is November 5, 2025, and the end date is December 31, 2026, making timing central to this forecast.",485869.726181,{"id":987,"title":988,"slug":989,"category":8,"subcategory":169,"tags":990,"probability":991,"createdAt":992,"updatedAt":993,"resolutionDate":61,"description":994,"summary":995,"volume1wk":996,"featured":149},"432169","Nothing Ever Happens: May","nothing-ever-happens-may-745",[169,17],95.3,"2026-05-30T10:42:58.289Z","2026-05-30T10:32:45.368Z","This market will resolve to “Something” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET:\n\n- US x Iran permanent peace deal\n- Iran leadership change\n- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hits ↑ $150\n- US military action against Cuba\n- US confirms that aliens exist \n- Russia invades a NATO country \n\n Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Nothing”.\n\nThe full rules for this market can be found here: \nhttps:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com\u002FNEH_MAY.pdf","Nothing Ever Happens: May is a geopolitics prediction market about whether any major global shock will occur before the market closes on May 31, 2026. The forecast resolves to “Something” if one of several high-impact events happens between market creation and the deadline, including a US-Iran permanent peace deal, an Iran leadership change, WTI crude oil reaching $150, US military action against Cuba, a US confirmation that aliens exist, or Russia invading a NATO country. If none of those conditions are met, it resolves to “Nothing.”\n\nThe event matters because it packages several low-probability, high-consequence geopolitical scenarios into a single event prediction, giving traders a simple way to express market sentiment on global instability. Current market probability is around 95.3% for “Nothing,” suggesting traders expect no qualifying event before the cutoff. As with any prediction market, that probability reflects current odds and can change as new developments emerge. The start date is April 30, 2026, and the market ends at 11:59 PM ET on May 31, 2026.",80961.113514,{"id":998,"title":999,"slug":1000,"category":8,"subcategory":18,"tags":1001,"probability":19,"createdAt":1002,"updatedAt":1003,"resolutionDate":61,"description":1004,"summary":1005,"volume1wk":1006,"featured":149},"91164","Will Russia enter Borova by...?","will-russia-enter-borova-by-december-31",[18,17,142,205],"2026-05-30T10:42:59.460Z","2026-05-30T10:32:43.682Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures any territory of Borova (49.37457173620971, 37.62233412539868) by December 31, 2025, at 11:59 PM ET.\n\nTerritory will be considered captured if any part of Borova is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https:\u002F\u002Fstorymaps.arcgis.com\u002Fstories\u002F36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.\n\nFor any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either \"Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine\", “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. \n\nOnce a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.\n\nIf Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https:\u002F\u002Fdeepstatemap.live\u002F) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.\n\nNote: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.","Will Russia enter Borova by...? is a geopolitics prediction market focused on whether Russian forces will capture any part of Borova, Ukraine, by the resolution date of December 31, 2025 at 11:59 PM ET. The market is tied to the ISW Ukraine map, with DeepStateMap or credible reporting used only if the primary source is unavailable. For a Yes resolution, the relevant area must show sustained Russian control or advance through the required update cycle, or Russia must gain actual control through a negotiated settlement.\n\nThis event matters because Borova sits within the broader conflict in Ukraine, making it a live test of battlefield momentum, territorial control, and market sentiment around the war. Traders in this prediction market are forecasting the expected outcome based on map changes, military developments, and reporting from the front. As of the latest data, the market probability is 0%, indicating that traders currently see a Russian entry into Borova by the deadline as unlikely, though not impossible.\n\nThe listing is active and remains relevant for users following geopolitical forecast markets, Ukraine map updates, and event prediction odds.",70708.82603200001,{"id":1008,"title":1009,"slug":1010,"category":8,"subcategory":18,"tags":1011,"probability":839,"createdAt":1012,"updatedAt":1013,"resolutionDate":22,"description":1014,"summary":1015,"volume1wk":1016,"featured":149},"448098","Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by...?","russia-x-ukraine-diplomatic-meeting-by",[18,242,553,17,141,142],"2026-05-30T10:43:06.553Z","2026-05-30T10:32:42.053Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of Russia and Ukraine by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nA diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding Russia-Ukraine relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. \n\nBrief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.\n\nThe meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.\n\nThe resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine, and a consensus of credible reporting.","Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by...? is a geopolitics prediction market forecasting whether representatives of Russia and Ukraine will hold a qualifying diplomatic meeting by the listed deadline, with resolution set for 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026. The event asks traders to assess the chance of an in-person meeting, including indirect in-person talks conducted through authorized mediators or facilitators, so long as the discussion is officially tied to diplomacy or negotiation on Russia-Ukraine relations. Casual encounters, remote calls, and purely informal contacts do not count. The market matters because any confirmed diplomatic engagement could signal a shift in Russia-Ukraine relations and broader market sentiment around the conflict. Current market probability is about 25%, suggesting traders see the expected outcome as possible but far from certain. Resolution will rely on official government information from Russia and Ukraine, along with a consensus of credible media reporting. As a prediction market event, this listing reflects the odds and forecast for a specific diplomatic outcome rather than a general policy view.",35637.088766,{"id":1018,"title":1019,"slug":1020,"category":8,"subcategory":17,"tags":1021,"probability":652,"createdAt":1024,"updatedAt":1025,"resolutionDate":22,"description":1026,"summary":1027,"volume1wk":1028,"featured":149},"73050","Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027?","israel-and-saudi-arabia-normalize-relations-before-2027",[17,241,33,139,154,1022,1023],"Trump x Saudi","Trump-Netanyahu","2026-05-30T10:43:08.302Z","2026-05-30T10:32:40.990Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if both Israel and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia officially announce the establishment of diplomatic relations by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israel and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.\n","Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027? is a geopolitics prediction market focused on whether the two countries will officially establish diplomatic relations by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The market resolves to Yes only if both Israel and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia make an official announcement confirming normalization before the deadline; otherwise it resolves to No. As a Middle East foreign policy event, it reflects broader questions about regional alignment, U.S.-backed diplomacy, and the future of Israel-Saudi relations. The market opened on November 5, 2025 and remains active through the end-of-2026 cutoff, giving traders time to reassess developments in official statements and credible reporting. Current market probability is 14.5%, suggesting traders assign relatively low odds to a formal agreement within the forecast window. Because the resolution depends on official government confirmation, market sentiment will likely move with diplomatic signals, media coverage, and any changes in Israel, Saudi Arabia, or related Trump-era geopolitical dynamics. This event prediction is relevant for users tracking geopolitical forecast markets, Middle East diplomacy, and foreign policy odds.",31459.840186,{"id":1030,"title":1031,"slug":1032,"category":8,"subcategory":1033,"tags":1034,"probability":19,"createdAt":1036,"updatedAt":1037,"resolutionDate":600,"description":1038,"summary":1039,"volume1wk":1040,"featured":149},"259462","Will Trump talk to Mojtaba Khamenei by...?","will-trump-talk-to-mojtaba-khamenei-by-march-31","supreme leader",[1033,16,9,11,1035,277,17],"speak","2026-05-30T10:43:26.913Z","2026-05-30T10:32:22.926Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Mojtaba Khamenei talks with Donald Trump by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA talk is defined as any interaction between Mojtaba Khamenei and Donald Trump, occurring either in person or through verbal communication by phone or video call.\n\nThe resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.","Will Trump talk to Mojtaba Khamenei by...? is a geopolitics prediction market asking whether Mojtaba Khamenei and Donald Trump will have any direct interaction by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The market resolves to Yes if they speak in person or by phone or video call, and to No if no such communication is reported by the deadline. Because the resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting, traders are watching for verified diplomatic or political contact rather than speculation. This event matters as a focused forecast on U.S.-Iran relations, especially given the significance of the Khamenei name in Iran’s regime and the broader implications of any Trump-linked conversation. The current market probability is shown at 0%, suggesting traders see the expected outcome as unlikely at the moment, though odds can change quickly as news develops. The market started on March 11, 2026 and remains active through the end date listed on the platform, making it a time-sensitive event prediction for those tracking geopolitical sentiment.",9801.150274,{"id":1042,"title":1043,"slug":1044,"category":8,"subcategory":11,"tags":1045,"probability":1046,"createdAt":1047,"updatedAt":1048,"resolutionDate":22,"description":1049,"summary":1050,"volume1wk":1051,"featured":149},"326475"," Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?","iran-agrees-to-end-enrichment-of-uranium-by-december-31",[11,112,33,16,13,18,17,9],56.5,"2026-05-30T10:42:54.877Z","2026-05-30T10:32:20.307Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.\n\nAny agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if\u002Fwhen the agreement goes into effect.\n\nAn agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.\n\nAn agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. \n\nAgreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. ","Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? is a geopolitics prediction market asking whether Iran will publicly agree to end all uranium enrichment by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The forecast centers on a clear policy shift: a qualifying agreement or pledge must commit Iran to stop all enrichment, whether announced unilaterally or as part of a broader arrangement with the U.S. or Israel. Partial limits, caps, or lower enrichment levels do not count. The market’s primary resolution source is a consensus of credible reporting.\n\nThis event matters because Iran’s nuclear program remains a central issue in Middle East security, U.S.-Iran relations, and wider diplomatic efforts involving Trump-era geopolitics. The prediction market began on March 31, 2026 and runs through the year-end deadline, giving traders a defined timeframe to assess diplomatic developments, official statements, and negotiations. Current market probability is 56.5%, suggesting a modestly favored Yes outcome, though market sentiment can change as new information emerges. As an event prediction, it tracks whether a formal Iranian commitment to end uranium enrichment appears before the deadline.",134028.05734000003,{"id":1053,"title":1054,"slug":1055,"category":8,"subcategory":17,"tags":1056,"probability":1057,"createdAt":1058,"updatedAt":1059,"resolutionDate":61,"description":1060,"summary":1061,"volume1wk":1062,"featured":149},"431743","Who will Trump meet with in May?","who-will-trump-meet-with-in-may",[17,18,11],0.1,"2026-05-30T10:43:08.438Z","2026-05-30T10:32:19.934Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the listed individual meets with Donald Trump between May 1, and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA meeting is defined as any encounter where both the listed individual and Trump are present and interact with each other in person.\n\nThe resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.","Who will Trump meet with in May? is a geopolitics prediction market tracking whether a listed individual will meet with Donald Trump between May 1 and May 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. The market resolves to Yes only if credible reporting confirms that Trump and the named person were both present and interacted in person during the forecast window. If no qualifying meeting occurs, the outcome is No. As a political event prediction, it sits at the intersection of geopolitics, Trump-related news, and market sentiment around high-profile contacts. Traders are currently assigning roughly a 10% probability to a meeting, suggesting the expected outcome is still considered unlikely rather than imminent. The market begins just before the May period and closes at the end of the month, with resolution based on a consensus of credible reporting. For users following prediction market odds, this event offers a focused test of whether a specific Trump meeting will occur within the defined timeframe.",30827.648753,{"id":1064,"title":1065,"slug":1066,"category":8,"subcategory":17,"tags":1067,"probability":1068,"createdAt":1069,"updatedAt":1070,"resolutionDate":22,"description":1071,"summary":1072,"volume1wk":1073,"featured":149},"73130","Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?","will-the-us-invade-iran-before-2027",[17,18,33,154,9,11,139,746],18.5,"2026-05-30T10:42:45.702Z","2026-05-30T10:32:16.867Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.","Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? is a geopolitics prediction market focused on whether the United States will begin a military offensive intended to establish control over any part of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The market resolves to Yes only if that threshold is met, with resolution based on a consensus of credible sources. It is part of the broader politics and Middle East category, and it draws on major geopolitical factors involving the U.S., Iran, Israel, and the Trump-era security context reflected in the event tags. The forecast matters because any direct U.S.-Iran military action would have significant implications for regional stability, energy markets, and global security. Traders are effectively pricing the expected outcome of a highly sensitive geopolitical scenario, with current market probability at 18.5%, suggesting a relatively low but non-trivial chance of escalation before the deadline. As a live event prediction, sentiment can shift quickly with developments in military strikes, diplomacy, or broader conflict dynamics across the Middle East.",1710369.6938979982,{"id":1075,"title":1076,"slug":1077,"category":8,"subcategory":17,"tags":1078,"probability":19,"createdAt":1079,"updatedAt":1080,"resolutionDate":38,"description":1081,"summary":1082,"volume1wk":1083,"featured":149},"386812","Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?","israel-withdraws-from-lebanon-by",[17,13,9,229,154,630],"2026-05-30T10:42:51.863Z","2026-05-30T10:32:05.460Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor this market to resolve to \"Yes\" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice.\n\nThe Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.","\"Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?\" is a geopolitics prediction market asking whether Israel will announce that all of its ground forces have withdrawn from Lebanese territory by the market deadline. The event resolves to Yes only if Israel makes that announcement by 11:59 PM ET on June 30, 2026; a promise of a future withdrawal is not enough. For resolution purposes, Shebaa Farms is treated as Israeli territory, and the primary source is the Israeli government, though overwhelming credible reporting could also determine the outcome. This geopolitical forecast sits at the intersection of Israel, Lebanon, Iran ceasefire dynamics, and broader Israel x Iran market sentiment. Traders are effectively pricing the odds of a completed withdrawal rather than a diplomatic statement or partial pullback. The current market probability is 0%, indicating no priced expectation of a Yes outcome at the time of the latest update, although prediction market sentiment can change quickly as news develops. For observers following geopolitical event prediction and regional security developments, this market reflects whether a concrete Israeli withdrawal announcement will occur before the deadline.",228955.71000300001,{"id":1085,"title":1086,"slug":1087,"category":8,"subcategory":18,"tags":1088,"probability":19,"createdAt":1089,"updatedAt":1090,"resolutionDate":600,"description":1091,"summary":1092,"volume1wk":1093,"featured":149},"131623","Will Russia capture all of Prymorske by...?","will-russia-capture-all-of-prymorske-by",[18,141,265,264,242,142,205,17],"2026-05-30T10:42:57.942Z","2026-05-30T10:32:00.096Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the entirety of Prymorske, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, by January 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.\n\nPrymorske will be considered captured if the entirety of the municipality is shaded red on the ISW map (https:\u002F\u002Fstorymaps.arcgis.com\u002Fstories\u002F36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by January 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”.\n\nFor any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.\n\nThe territory of the municipality is shaded in light grey and is distinguished from bordering municipalities such as \"Stepnohirsk\" with a darker grey line. If all area within the municipality is shaded in red, however, the shading does not precisely match up with the border such that there is a tiny amount of grey along the border of the city, this will still qualify for a \"Yes\" resolution.\n\nOnce Russia captures the entirety of Prymorske, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.\n\nLocation on Google maps: https:\u002F\u002Fmaps.app.goo.gl\u002FK7mS2YU7bZoVVHga9\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https:\u002F\u002Fdeepstatemap.live\u002F) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.\n\nNote: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.\n\nIf Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.","Will Russia capture all of Prymorske by...? is a geopolitics prediction market focused on whether Russia will take full control of Prymorske, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, by the market’s resolution deadline. The forecast resolves to Yes if the entire municipality is shown in red on the ISW Ukraine map, with qualifying control required to persist through the next full daily update cycle. If Russia gains control through a negotiated settlement that gives it actual control, that also counts for a Yes outcome. The market does not count temporary map glitches, and partial shading or infiltration areas alone are not enough.\n\nThis event matters because it tracks a specific battlefield control outcome in the Russia-Ukraine war, using the ISW map or, if needed, DeepStateMap and credible reporting as backup sources. The prediction market is active, and traders are currently assigning 0% probability to a Yes outcome, indicating very weak market sentiment for a near-term capture. The event runs from its December 2025 start date through the April 30, 2026 end date, with final resolution tied to the January 15, 2026 cutoff in the market rules.",86654.17068000005,{"id":1095,"title":1096,"slug":1097,"category":8,"subcategory":303,"tags":1098,"probability":35,"createdAt":1099,"updatedAt":1100,"resolutionDate":1101,"description":1102,"summary":1103,"volume1wk":1104,"featured":149},"281145","Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?","will-china-invade-taiwan-by-december-31-2027",[303,18,139,17],"2026-05-30T10:43:12.634Z","2026-05-30T10:31:59.384Z","2027-12-31T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nTerritory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify. \n\nThe resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.","Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? is a geopolitics prediction market asking whether China will begin a military offensive intended to establish control over any part of Taiwan before the deadline. The market resolves to Yes only if there is official confirmation from China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or a permanent UN Security Council member, or if credible reporting reaches consensus. In practical terms, traders are forecasting the risk of a cross-strait conflict involving the Republic of China (Taiwan), including inhabited islands under its administration. This event matters because any military escalation in the Taiwan Strait would have major implications for regional security, global trade, and international relations. The market is active from March 17, 2026 through December 31, 2027, with current market probability at 15.5%, suggesting traders assign a relatively low but meaningful chance of an invasion within the forecast window. As a geopolitical forecast, it draws attention from participants tracking China, Taiwan, world politics, and broader market sentiment around security risks in East Asia.",22309.890246,{"id":1106,"title":1107,"slug":1108,"category":8,"subcategory":33,"tags":1109,"probability":74,"createdAt":1111,"updatedAt":1112,"resolutionDate":22,"description":1113,"summary":1114,"volume1wk":1115,"featured":149},"73191","Which country will join Abraham Accords before 2027?","which-country-will-join-abraham-accords-before-2027",[33,18,291,17,1110,139,154],"Abraham Accords","2026-05-30T10:42:58.077Z","2026-05-30T10:31:57.327Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the listed country formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation.\n\nThe resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.","Which country will join Abraham Accords before 2027? is a geopolitics prediction market focused on whether another country will formally sign a normalization agreement with Israel under the Abraham Accords framework by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The event is centered on Middle East diplomacy, Israel’s regional relations, and the possibility of new official agreements being publicly acknowledged by both governments. The market resolves \"Yes\" only if a country signs such an agreement within the stated timeframe; otherwise it resolves \"No.\" In prediction market terms, traders are forecasting the expected outcome based on official statements and credible reporting, with the resolution source relying primarily on government announcements. Current market probability stands at 11.5%, suggesting relatively low odds that a new country will join the accords before the deadline. Relevant search terms include Abraham Accords, Israel, Gaza, Middle East, and geopolitical forecast, making this a useful event page for monitoring market sentiment around normalization efforts and broader regional politics.",84807.45014599999,{"id":1117,"title":1118,"slug":1119,"category":8,"subcategory":141,"tags":1120,"probability":542,"createdAt":1121,"updatedAt":1122,"resolutionDate":38,"description":1123,"summary":1124,"volume1wk":1125,"featured":149},"107996","Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? ","ukraine-agrees-not-to-join-nato-by-june-30",[141,18,142,139,17,554,216],"2026-05-30T10:42:48.370Z","2026-05-30T10:31:55.853Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Ukraine publicly agrees not to join NATO by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.\n\nAny agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if\u002Fwhen the agreement goes into effect.\n\nAn agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).\n\nAn agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement. \n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.","Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? is a geopolitics prediction market focused on whether Ukraine will publicly agree not to join NATO by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The market resolves to Yes if Ukraine makes an official pledge on its own or as part of an agreement with Russia, and any qualifying commitment made before the deadline counts even if it is not immediately implemented. This includes a pledge for any time period, such as a temporary or multi-year commitment, and even a precondition tied to a broader peace process. The primary resolution source is an official Ukrainian announcement, though strong, credible reporting could also determine the outcome. As of the latest data, traders assign about a 3.25% probability to a Yes resolution, indicating market sentiment still expects this outcome to remain unlikely. The event sits in the Russia and Ukraine Peace Deal context and is closely watched because any movement on NATO membership could affect wider negotiations in the war between Russia and Ukraine.",628198.77573,{"id":1127,"title":1128,"slug":1129,"category":8,"subcategory":11,"tags":1130,"probability":1131,"createdAt":1132,"updatedAt":1133,"resolutionDate":38,"description":1134,"summary":1135,"volume1wk":1136,"featured":149},"527992","Who will Trump speak to in June?","who-will-trump-speak-to-in-june",[11,17,18],2.9,"2026-05-30T10:43:25.773Z","2026-05-30T10:31:55.271Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the listed individual speaks with Donald Trump between June 1 and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to \"No\".\n\nSpeaking is defined as any verbal interaction between the listed individual and Donald Trump, occurring either in person or through verbal communication by phone or video call.\n\nThe resolution source will be credible media reporting. However, in the absence of definitive or in the case of contradictory media reporting, statements by either of the specified individuals or their official representatives will also be considered.\n\nStatements by the specified individuals or their official representatives will only be considered conclusive if the claims explicitly, or in context unambiguously, indicate that a qualifying talk occurred within the specified timeframe and took place via verbal communication, and provided that such claims are not contradicted by the other specified individual, their representatives, or credible media reporting by the end of the third calendar date (ET) following the statement in question.\n\nIf the date\u002Ftime of a qualifying talk cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day following this market's above-specified timeframe, it will resolve to \"No\" regardless of whether it was later confirmed to have taken place.","Who will Trump speak to in June? is a geopolitics prediction market asking which listed individual, if any, will have a verified verbal interaction with Donald Trump between June 1 and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The forecast covers direct speaking in person, by phone, or via video call, with resolution based primarily on credible media reporting and, where needed, statements from the individuals or their official representatives. Because the market requires confirmation within a specific post-period window, the expected outcome depends on timely reporting as well as the substance of any public claims.\n\nThis event matters because it tracks Trump-related political contact during a defined month and gives traders a way to price market sentiment around possible meetings, calls, or media-reported conversations. As of the latest data, the market probability is about 2.9%, suggesting traders see a low chance that the listed person will speak with Trump during the June timeframe. The event is active through June 30, 2026, and remains a clear example of a geopolitical forecast centered on event prediction and information flow.",10505.295814000001,1780676596798]