[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":1158},["ShallowReactive",2],{"category-events-geopolitics":3,"category-content-geopolitics":82},[4,27,44,59,75,86,99,111,122,139,150,161,173,187,198,215,229,241,252,263,276,290,302,313,325,336,347,361,373,384,398,410,423,434,447,458,469,480,496,509,521,533,546,558,570,582,594,604,615,627,639,655,666,677,689,702,712,723,734,747,760,770,781,792,806,819,830,841,852,867,877,889,901,911,922,935,947,957,967,979,989,1000,1011,1021,1031,1043,1053,1063,1075,1087,1098,1108,1118,1128,1138,1148],{"id":5,"title":6,"slug":7,"category":8,"subcategory":9,"tags":10,"probability":19,"createdAt":20,"updatedAt":21,"resolutionDate":22,"description":23,"summary":24,"volume1wk":25,"featured":26},"267102","Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?","kharg-island-no-longer-under-iranian-control-by-march-31","GEOPOLITICS","Khamenei",[9,11,12,13,14,15,16,17,18],"Iran Regime","Kharg Island","Iran","Mojtaba Khamenei","Geopolitics","Strait of Hormuz","U.S. x Iran","Iran Ceasefire",0,"2026-05-30T10:42:44.876Z","2026-06-16T10:07:39.566Z","2026-03-31T23:55:00.000Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Kharg Island is no longer under Iranian control by March 31, 2026 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\n“No longer under the control of Iran” means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Kharg Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.\n\nTemporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.\n\nAn announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.\n\nIf control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.\n\nIf control over Kharg Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.","Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...? is a geopolitics prediction market asking whether Iran will lose primary governmental or military control of Kharg Island by March 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. The event resolves to Yes only if another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has actually established control over the island by the deadline; disputed, temporary, or partial disruptions do not count. That makes the forecast highly specific and dependent on confirmed changes in control, not just military activity, announcements, or threats.\n\nThe market matters because Kharg Island is closely tied to Iran’s strategic position in the Gulf and the broader Strait of Hormuz region. Traders are watching official government and military statements, along with credible reporting, to assess the expected outcome. At the current stage, market probability is listed at 0%, indicating no priced expectation that Iran will lose control before the resolution date. As a prediction market, it reflects event prediction and shifting market sentiment around a major geopolitical scenario involving Iran, Khamenei, and the Kharg Island area.",3743036.214033015,true,{"id":28,"title":29,"slug":30,"category":8,"subcategory":13,"tags":31,"probability":19,"createdAt":38,"updatedAt":39,"resolutionDate":40,"description":41,"summary":42,"volume1wk":43,"featured":26},"357807","US x Iran permanent peace deal by...?","us-x-iran-permanent-peace-deal-by",[13,32,33,18,34,35,17,15,36,37],"Trump","ceasefire","Agreement","10-point","Politics","Peace Deal","2026-05-30T10:42:43.363Z","2026-06-16T10:07:37.026Z","2026-12-31T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran and the United states agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. \n\nA permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between the US and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the two-week ceasefire agreement announced on April 7, 2026), will not qualify.\n\nA qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:\n\n- The United States and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.\n\n- Both the governments of the United States and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.","US x Iran permanent peace deal by...? is a geopolitics prediction market asking whether the United States and Iran will reach a permanent peace deal by the specified deadline of 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026. The forecasted outcome is narrowly defined: the market resolves “Yes” only if both sides sign or publicly confirm a qualifying agreement that clearly ends military hostilities on a lasting basis. Temporary ceasefires, extensions, or statements of progress do not count.\n\nThis event matters because U.S.-Iran relations remain a major driver of geopolitical risk, regional stability, and broader market sentiment. Traders are watching for official statements, treaty language, or other credible confirmation from both governments that a durable agreement has been established. The resolution source prioritizes official information, with credible reporting used as a secondary reference.\n\nCurrent market probability is 0%, indicating traders do not expect a permanent peace deal before the deadline at this time. As a geopolitical forecast, the market reflects ongoing uncertainty around U.S. x Iran diplomacy, ceasefire dynamics, and the likelihood of a definitive agreement rather than a temporary pause in hostilities.",80346197.77405979,{"id":45,"title":46,"slug":47,"category":8,"subcategory":16,"tags":48,"probability":52,"createdAt":53,"updatedAt":54,"resolutionDate":55,"description":56,"summary":57,"volume1wk":58,"featured":26},"509893","What Iranian demands will Trump agree to by June 30?","what-iranian-demands-will-trump-agree-to-by-june-30",[16,49,15,13,36,18,50,32,17,51],"Oil","Uranium","Negotiation Topics",35.5,"2026-05-30T10:42:53.453Z","2026-06-16T10:07:35.294Z","2026-06-30T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the United States agrees to the continued enrichment of uranium by Iran by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nContinued enrichment of uranium by Iran refers to US acceptance of the enrichment of, or the right to enrich, any quantity of uranium by Iran for any future amount of time. Agreements that include limitations, restrictions, or specified terms (e.g., caps on enrichment level, monitoring requirements) will qualify, provided the United States accepts continued enrichment.\n\nThe United States will be considered to have agreed to the continued enrichment of uranium by Iran if:\n\n- Donald Trump or another authorized representative of the Government of the United States publicly announces that they have definitively agreed to accept the continued enrichment of uranium by Iran.\n- Continued enrichment of uranium by Iran is included as part of a treaty or deal that is formally established between the United States and Iran, either through signing or other formal means.\n\nAgreement refers to an explicit acceptance, authorization or consent to the specified action. Only announcements of definitive agreement will qualify. Suggestions, negotiations, expressions of openness, or other non-definitive statements will not qualify.\n\nAny definitive agreement or commitment made before the resolution date will be considered, regardless of when or whether the specified action is begun.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Donald Trump and the US government and their official representatives; however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used to verify the details of an announcement or formal agreement.","What Iranian demands will Trump agree to by June 30? is a geopolitics prediction market centered on whether the United States, under Donald Trump or another authorized representative, will definitively agree to Iran’s continued enrichment of uranium by the June 30, 2026 deadline. The market resolves to Yes only if there is an explicit public announcement or a formally established US-Iran deal that accepts continued uranium enrichment, even if the agreement includes limits, monitoring, or other conditions. Mere negotiations or expressions of openness do not count. This makes the forecast a focused test of diplomatic progress between the US and Iran, with implications for the Strait of Hormuz, oil markets, and broader regional security. Traders are currently assigning about a 33.5% probability to the expected outcome, indicating market sentiment leans against a definitive agreement but leaves meaningful room for an event prediction to resolve Yes before the end date. Because resolution depends on official statements or credible reporting of a formal deal, the market will likely move on any substantive US-Iran announcement before June 30.",2347781.3282119986,{"id":60,"title":61,"slug":62,"category":8,"subcategory":63,"tags":64,"probability":69,"createdAt":70,"updatedAt":71,"resolutionDate":55,"description":72,"summary":73,"volume1wk":74,"featured":26},"375597","Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?","strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-end-of-june","Macro Geopolitics",[63,65,49,66,16,67,68,13,15],"Hormuz","ships","Economy","transit",17.5,"2026-05-30T10:42:44.781Z","2026-06-16T10:07:25.061Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and June 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nDaily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on\u002Froll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.\n\nThis market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.\n\nRevisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for June 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.\n\nIn case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https:\u002F\u002Fportwatch.imf.org\u002Fpages\u002Fcb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.","Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? is a geopolitics prediction market focused on whether shipping activity through one of the world’s most strategically important chokepoints will recover to a 7-day moving average of at least 60 transit calls. The forecast is based on IMF Portwatch data for “Arrivals of Ships” in the Strait of Hormuz, covering container, dry bulk, roll-on\u002Froll-off, general cargo, and tanker vessels. The market will resolve Yes if that threshold is published on any date between market creation and June 30, 2026; otherwise it will resolve No. Because the strait is central to global oil flows and broader U.S.-Iran tensions, traders are watching it as a macro geopolitics event prediction with potential implications for energy markets and regional risk sentiment. Current market probability is about 33.5%, suggesting traders see a return to normal traffic as possible but not the base case. The event starts on April 13, 2026 and runs through the end of June, with resolution tied directly to IMF Portwatch publications and their revision rules.",8515903.754582984,{"id":76,"title":77,"slug":78,"category":8,"subcategory":36,"tags":79,"probability":19,"createdAt":80,"updatedAt":81,"resolutionDate":82,"description":83,"summary":84,"volume1wk":85,"featured":26},"517606","US announces new Iran agreement\u002Fceasefire extension by...?","us-announces-new-iran-agreementceasefire-extension-by",[36,15,18,13,17,37],"2026-05-30T10:42:44.017Z","2026-06-16T10:06:05.405Z",null,"This market will resolve to “Yes” if the U.S. officially announces an extension of the ceasefire agreement between the U.S. and Iran, defined as a publicly announced commitment to the continued halt of direct military engagement with Iran or announces a new peace agreement, ceasefire framework, or diplomatic agreement under which the ceasefire will continue by the specified date 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf a qualifying announcement is officially made before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire extension ultimately takes effect.\n\nA qualifying announcement requires clear public confirmation from the U.S. government that the U.S. has either:\n \n1. Extended its commitment to the ceasefire, either as a dated\u002Ftime-based extension (e.g. a 60 day extension) or through an explicit statement that the ceasefire has been extended.\n\n2. Renewed the existing ceasefire as part of a broader peace agreement, ceasefire framework, or diplomatic agreement under which the ceasefire will continue.\n\nStatements which merely acknowledge, reaffirm, or describe the current ceasefire as remaining in effect, or which outline further negotiations or de-escalation measures, without announcing a new extension period, or successor agreement under which the ceasefire will continue, will not qualify.\n\nThe following would qualify:\n- President Trump announcing that “the ceasefire has been extended for another 60 days.”\n- An official U.S. statement announcing that “the United States and Iran have agreed to extend the ceasefire framework while negotiations continue.”\n- President Trump’s April 21, 2026 announcement extending the ceasefire “until the Iranian negotiators could reach a unified proposal.”\n- An announcement that the US and Iran have agreed to a new temporary framework under which the ceasefire would continue as Iran gradually reopens the Strait of Hormuz and the United States begins to unfreeze Iranian assets would qualify.\n\nThe following would not qualify:\n- Statements that the ceasefire merely “remains in effect” or “continues to hold,” without announcing a new extension, renewal, or successor agreement.\n- Statements that “the ceasefire will remain in effect while negotiations continue,” without announcing that the ceasefire itself has been extended, or a new framework or deal has been reached\n- Statements that negotiations are progressing, that talks are ongoing, or that the parties are “getting closer” to a deal, without announcing that the ceasefire itself has been extended, renewed, or continued under a new agreement.\n\n\nAn overwhelming consensus of credible reporting that a qualifying extension or successor agreement has been definitively established will also suffice for a “Yes” resolution.\n\nThis market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the U.S. government and will not require confirmation from Iran. ","US announces new Iran agreement\u002Fceasefire extension by...? is a geopolitics prediction market focused on whether the U.S. government will officially announce a continuation of the ceasefire with Iran, or a new peace agreement, ceasefire framework, or diplomatic deal that keeps the truce in place. The market resolves to Yes only if there is a qualifying public U.S. announcement by the specified deadline; statements that simply say the ceasefire is holding or that talks are ongoing do not count. In other words, traders are forecasting whether Washington will formally extend or renew the current U.S.-Iran ceasefire arrangement rather than merely discuss de-escalation. This event matters because any official extension or successor agreement would be a notable signal in U.S.-Iran relations, with implications for military risk, regional stability, and diplomacy in the Middle East. The market opened on May 23, 2026, and resolution is tied to the announced cutoff at 11:59 PM ET on the target date. Current market probability is 0%, indicating no priced expectation of a qualifying announcement at this time, though prediction market sentiment can change quickly as official statements or credible reporting emerge.",16205133.21684103,{"id":87,"title":88,"slug":89,"category":8,"subcategory":13,"tags":90,"probability":92,"createdAt":93,"updatedAt":94,"resolutionDate":95,"description":96,"summary":97,"volume1wk":98,"featured":26},"574642","Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by...?","trump-announces-us-x-iran-ceasefire-over-byptptpt-20260607232555290",[13,15,91,32,18],"Middle East",5.15,"2026-06-16T10:07:52.961Z","2026-06-16T10:05:55.975Z","2026-06-30T19:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if President Trump, the US government, or the US military publicly and officially announces that no ceasefire between the United States and Iran is in effect between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nQualifying statements must clearly indicate that there is no longer any US-Iran ceasefire commitment to refrain from military hostilities in effect, including statements that the US is no longer committed to such an agreement. The expiration of a prior agreed ceasefire period without  extension will not alone qualify. \n\nAnnouncements of a new agreement (e.g, a broader peace framework or ceasefire extension) that supersedes the initial ceasefire agreement while maintaining a mutual commitment to a halt in direct military engagement between the United States and Iran will not qualify. \n\nStatements that merely reference violations, breaches, or non-compliance with the ceasefire will not alone qualify.\n\nInformal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks do not qualify.\n\nWritten public statements from Donald Trump (e.g., posts from his personal Truth Social account) will qualify. Videos posted on his social media accounts will also qualify for a \"Yes\" resolution.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Donald Trump, the US government and the US military; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.\n\nNote: this market will resolve solely based on whether a qualifying announcement is made within the specified timeframe. Whether the ceasefire actually ends in practice or whether hostilities resume will not be considered.","\"Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by...?\" is a geopolitics prediction market asking whether President Trump, the US government, or the US military will publicly and officially state that no ceasefire between the United States and Iran is in effect by the market deadline of 11:59 PM ET on June 30, 2026. The forecast is narrowly focused on a qualifying announcement, not on whether hostilities actually resume or whether a prior ceasefire simply expires. Traders are watching for an official statement from Donald Trump, a public US government or military declaration, or other credible reporting that clearly says the ceasefire commitment has ended. References to violations, breaches, leaks, or unnamed sources do not count. Current market probability is about 5.15%, suggesting sentiment leans strongly toward a No resolution. As a prediction market event in the Iran and Middle East category, it reflects broader uncertainty around US-Iran relations, ceasefire language, and the durability of any diplomatic or military restraint during the forecast window, which runs from June 9, 2026 through the June 30 deadline.",2056823.9396519987,{"id":100,"title":101,"slug":102,"category":8,"subcategory":15,"tags":103,"probability":104,"createdAt":105,"updatedAt":106,"resolutionDate":107,"description":108,"summary":109,"volume1wk":110,"featured":26},"599086","US-Iran deal text released by...?","us-iran-deal-text-released-byptptpt-20260615224044572",[15,37,17,13,36],90.5,"2026-06-16T10:08:14.774Z","2026-06-16T10:05:13.139Z","2026-07-01T03:59:00.000Z","On June 14, 2026, the US and Iran announced a written diplomatic agreement between the two countries, with an announced signing ceremony on June 19.\n\nThis market will resolve to “Yes” if any portion of the text of the agreement announced by the United States and Iran on June 14, 2026 is made widely available to the public by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe “agreement announced by the United States and Iran on June 14, 2026” includes any later-modified version that is publicly identified by credible reporting as a successor version of the same agreement.\n\nThe “text of the agreement” refers to the actual textual wording of the written agreement, whether released through images of the physical or electronic agreement text, or through alternative verbatim disclosures of the text (e.g., publication of the text of the agreement in a news article). Public disclosures of the deal’s contents, without the public disclosure of the actual text of the agreement, will not qualify. Public disclosures of text from draft proposals prior to the version of the agreement announced on June 14, 2026, will not qualify. \n\nA qualifying portion of the text of this agreement may be made widely available to the public by any means, regardless of whether it is released officially, leaked, or otherwise disclosed. However, such released text must be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to be genuine text of the agreement.\n\nA joint statement or similar document will qualify only if it contains verbatim text of the written agreement itself or is itself the operative written agreement between the United States and Iran. A statement that merely announces or characterizes the agreement will not qualify.\n\nThe resolution sources will be official information from the United States and Iran and a consensus of credible reporting.\n","US-Iran deal text released by...? is a geopolitics prediction market focused on whether the actual text of the written agreement announced by the United States and Iran on June 14, 2026 will be made widely available to the public by 11:59 PM ET on the resolution date. The market does not ask whether the deal exists or whether its contents are discussed; it specifically forecasts the release of qualifying verbatim text, whether through an official publication, leaked images, a news report reproducing the wording, or another credible disclosure. A joint statement only counts if it contains the agreement’s actual text or serves as the operative written agreement itself. The event matters because public release of diplomatic text can clarify the scope of the US-Iran agreement and shape market sentiment around the durability and substance of the peace deal. The current market probability is about 90.5%, indicating traders expect the text to be disclosed before the deadline. The forecast runs from June 15, 2026 through July 1, 2026, with resolution based on official information and a consensus of credible reporting.",33166.259299,{"id":112,"title":113,"slug":114,"category":8,"subcategory":18,"tags":115,"probability":116,"createdAt":117,"updatedAt":118,"resolutionDate":55,"description":119,"summary":120,"volume1wk":121,"featured":26},"530966","Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?","iran-agrees-to-unrestricted-shipping-through-hormuz-by-june-30",[18,13,15,16,17,36,51],30.5,"2026-05-30T10:43:24.337Z","2026-06-16T10:04:22.931Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Iran publicly agrees to allow unrestricted commercial navigation of the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nIran allowing unrestricted commercial navigation of the Strait of Hormuz refers to a public agreement by Iran that commercial vessels may transit the Strait of Hormuz without Iranian authorization\u002Fpermission, payment of fees to Iran, or other Iran-imposed restrictions. A public agreement that all restrictions imposed on commercial vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz by Iran as part of the US-Iran conflict which began on February 28, 2026, will be definitively lifted, without replacement by new restrictions, will qualify.\n\nA qualifying agreement must clearly indicate that Iran will not impose restrictions on commercial transit through the Strait of Hormuz. General statements about the strait being “open”, de-escalation, security, increased transit in the Strait, or stability in the region, which do not clearly indicate that Iran will allow unrestricted commercial transit through the Strait of Hormuz, will not qualify.\n\nAn official pledge by Iran to allow unrestricted commercial navigation of the Strait of Hormuz will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.\n\nAny agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if\u002Fwhen the agreement goes into effect.\n\nAn agreement by Iran to allow unrestricted commercial navigation of the Strait of Hormuz as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.\n\nThe primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the government of Iran and a consensus of credible reporting.","Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? is a geopolitics prediction market focused on whether Iran will publicly agree to allow unrestricted commercial navigation through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The event resolves to Yes only if Iran clearly states that commercial vessels may transit without Iranian authorization, fees, or other restrictions, or if existing Iran-imposed limits tied to the US-Iran conflict are definitively lifted without replacement. Broad statements about the strait being open, stable, or secure do not qualify.\n\nThis forecast matters because the Strait of Hormuz is a critical global shipping route, and any change in Iranian policy could affect regional tensions, U.S. x Iran relations, and broader Middle East market sentiment. Traders in this prediction market are effectively pricing the chance of a public Iranian pledge or agreement before the deadline. As of now, the market implies about a 31% probability of a Yes outcome, suggesting modest but not dominant expectations for unrestricted passage to be formally recognized before the end date. The event is active from May 27, 2026 through June 30, 2026, and resolution will depend on official Iranian statements and credible reporting.",358190.942098,{"id":123,"title":124,"slug":125,"category":8,"subcategory":126,"tags":127,"probability":133,"createdAt":134,"updatedAt":135,"resolutionDate":40,"description":136,"summary":137,"volume1wk":138,"featured":26},"259355","Cuban regime falls in 2026?","cuban-regime-falls-in-2026","Cuba",[126,32,128,129,130,15,131,132],"PCC","Overthrow","Castro","Communist Party of Cuba","Miguel Diaz-Canel",24.5,"2026-05-30T10:42:59.418Z","2026-06-16T10:02:41.612Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Communist Party of Cuba (PCC) ceases to exercise de facto governing control over Cuba by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nA “Yes” resolution requires a clear and widely reported break from the PCC’s historical control over the government of Cuba. This may include events such as the overthrow or dissolution of the PCC and its replacement by a new government or transitional authority, the constitutional removal of the PCC’s status as the sole ruling party followed by a transfer of governing power to a different political entity, or the holding of multi-party national elections that result in a government not controlled by the PCC. A “Yes” resolution does not require the formal dissolution of the PCC, provided the PCC no longer exercises de facto governing control over Cuba.\n\nLeadership changes within the PCC, including replacement of the First Secretary, or governmental reforms that preserve the PCC’s de facto governing control over Cuba, will not suffice. Partial loss of territory, civil unrest, or challenges by rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the PCC no longer administers the majority of the Cuban population within Cuba.\n\nThe primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.\n","“Cuban regime falls in 2026?” is a geopolitics prediction market on whether the Communist Party of Cuba (PCC) will cease to exercise de facto governing control over Cuba by December 31, 2026. The event does not hinge on a simple leadership change; it requires a clear break from PCC control, such as the overthrow or dissolution of the party’s governing role, a transfer of power to a different political authority, or multi-party national elections that produce a government no longer controlled by the PCC. The forecast matters because it speaks to the stability of Cuba’s political system and the durability of Communist Party rule under Miguel Díaz-Canel and the broader Castro-era political legacy. The market is active from March 11, 2026 through the end-of-year resolution date, with traders currently pricing the probability at about 26.5%. That suggests the market sentiment leans toward continued PCC control, though the odds still leave room for a meaningful event prediction. Credible reporting will determine resolution, and partial unrest or reforms that preserve PCC dominance will not count as a “Yes” outcome.",34340.67227999999,{"id":140,"title":141,"slug":142,"category":8,"subcategory":15,"tags":143,"probability":19,"createdAt":145,"updatedAt":146,"resolutionDate":40,"description":147,"summary":148,"volume1wk":149,"featured":26},"310530","Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?","iran-agrees-to-surrender-enriched-uranium-stockpile-by",[15,32,91,18,36,17,13,144,51],"Nuclear","2026-05-30T10:42:44.555Z","2026-06-16T10:02:41.231Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Iran publicly agrees to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn official pledge by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.\n\nAn agreement by Iran to surrender any amount of its enriched uranium stockpile will count.\n\nTo qualify, Iran must publicly agree that its enriched uranium stockpile, or any portion thereof, will be transferred, shipped, or placed under the custody or control of any entity outside of Iran and its influence, excluding non-state armed groups or Iranian-aligned organizations (such as Hezbollah, the Houthis, or similar actors).\n\nAny agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if\u002Fwhen the agreement goes into effect.\n\nAn agreement by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.\n\nAgreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.","Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...? is a geopolitics prediction market focused on whether Iran will publicly agree to transfer custody of any portion of its enriched uranium stockpile outside Iran by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The event matters because any such pledge would signal a major shift in U.S. x Iran nuclear diplomacy and broader Middle East security negotiations. \n\nFor this market to resolve to Yes, Iran must make a public agreement or pledge before the deadline, whether unilaterally or as part of a deal with the U.S. or Israel. The forecast does not require a finalized peace agreement, but it does require more than a promise to merely limit enrichment levels. Traders are specifically watching for confirmation that the stockpile, or any qualifying portion of it, will be transferred, shipped, or placed under the control of an entity outside Iran and its influence. \n\nCurrent market probability is 0%, indicating extremely low expected odds at this stage, though prediction market sentiment can shift quickly on credible reporting or diplomatic developments. The primary resolution source is consensus credible reporting.",1350422.5297449993,{"id":151,"title":152,"slug":153,"category":8,"subcategory":16,"tags":154,"probability":155,"createdAt":156,"updatedAt":157,"resolutionDate":55,"description":158,"summary":159,"volume1wk":160,"featured":26},"372242","Trump announces US blockade of Hormuz lifted by...?","trump-announces-us-blockade-of-hormuz-lifted-by",[16,15,32,18,36,13,17,91,65],15.5,"2026-05-30T10:42:44.199Z","2026-05-30T10:40:08.245Z","On April 12, 2026, President Donald Trump announced that the United States will blockade the Strait of Hormuz. You can read more about that here: https:\u002F\u002Fwww.nbcnews.com\u002Fworld\u002Firan\u002Flive-blog\u002Flive-updates-us-iran-fail-reach-deal-peace-talks-day-negotiations-rcna315918.\n\nThis market will resolve to \"Yes\" if President Trump, the US government, or the US military publicly and officially announces the end of the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nQualifying statements must clearly and explicitly indicate that the United States has lifted, ended, or will lift or end its blockade of the Strait of Hormuz on a specified date or use equivalently definitive language unambiguously signaling that such blockade has ceased or is set to cease on a specified date (e.g., statements unambiguously indicating that US naval activity in the relevant area has ceased will qualify). \n\nStatements that merely describe actions inconsistent with the blockade (e.g., \"Iran resumed shipping through the Strait of Hormuz\") without explicitly indicating the blockade as lifted will not alone suffice.\n\nInformal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks do not qualify.\n\nWritten public statements from Donald Trump (e.g., posts from his personal Truth Social account) will qualify. Videos posted on his social media accounts will also qualify for a \"Yes\" resolution.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the US government and\u002For its official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.\n\nNote: this market will resolve solely based on whether a qualifying announcement is made within the specified timeframe. Whether the blockade is effectively enforced or whether maritime traffic resumes absent a qualifying announcement will not be considered.","Trump announces US blockade of Hormuz lifted by...? is a geopolitics prediction market focused on whether President Donald Trump, the US government, or the US military will publicly and officially announce that the United States has ended its blockade of the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The event centers on the Strait of Hormuz, a critical shipping route in the Middle East, and the market resolves only if there is clear, definitive language that the blockade has been lifted or will be lifted by the deadline. Informal comments, leaks, or reports that merely imply normal shipping will not qualify.\n\nThe forecast matters because any change in US policy toward the Strait of Hormuz could affect regional tensions between the US and Iran, as well as broader market expectations around Middle East geopolitics. Current market probability sits at about 15.5%, suggesting traders assign a relatively low chance of a qualifying announcement before the deadline. As with most prediction market event prediction contracts, odds reflect evolving market sentiment rather than certainty, and traders are watching for any official statement from Trump or US authorities that meets the market’s resolution rules.",6602933.03823101,{"id":162,"title":163,"slug":164,"category":8,"subcategory":91,"tags":165,"probability":166,"createdAt":167,"updatedAt":168,"resolutionDate":169,"description":170,"summary":171,"volume1wk":172,"featured":26},"429456","Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?","iran-agrees-to-end-enrichment-of-uranium-by-may-31-945",[91,18,17,15,13],3.1,"2026-05-30T10:42:47.765Z","2026-05-30T10:37:12.706Z","2026-05-31T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.\n\nAny agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if\u002Fwhen the agreement goes into effect.\n\nAn agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.\n\nAn agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. \n\nAgreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. ","Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31? is a geopolitics prediction market in the Middle East focused on whether Iran will publicly commit to ending all uranium enrichment by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The forecast resolves to Yes if Iran makes a qualifying public pledge by the deadline, either unilaterally or as part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel; a temporary commitment or a pledge tied to a broader peace process also counts. By contrast, mere limits on enrichment levels do not qualify, which makes the wording of any announcement critical to the event prediction.\n\nThis market matters because uranium enrichment is central to U.S.-Iran tensions, regional security, and wider nonproliferation efforts. As a prediction market, it reflects trader sentiment on the odds of a diplomatic breakthrough before the end date. The current market probability is about 3.1%, suggesting traders see a Yes outcome as unlikely, though not impossible. The market’s resolution will depend on credible reporting and any official Iranian statement made before the deadline.",773488.0177810004,{"id":174,"title":175,"slug":176,"category":8,"subcategory":13,"tags":177,"probability":181,"createdAt":182,"updatedAt":183,"resolutionDate":169,"description":184,"summary":185,"volume1wk":186,"featured":26},"429426","What Iranian demands will Trump agree to by May 31?","what-iranian-demands-will-trump-agree-to-by-may-31",[13,178,179,18,32,16,180,15,36,17,50],"Sanctions","toll","Enrich",11.5,"2026-05-30T10:42:44.605Z","2026-05-30T10:37:10.758Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the United States agrees to the continued enrichment of uranium by Iran by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nContinued enrichment of uranium by Iran refers to US acceptance of the enrichment of, or the right to enrich, any quantity of uranium by Iran for any future amount of time. Agreements that include limitations, restrictions, or specified terms (e.g., caps on enrichment level, monitoring requirements) will qualify, provided the United States accepts continued enrichment.\n\nThe United States will be considered to have agreed to the continued enrichment of uranium by Iran if:\n\n- Donald Trump or another authorized representative of the Government of the United States publicly announces that they have definitively agreed to accept the continued enrichment of uranium by Iran.\n- Continued enrichment of uranium by Iran is included as part of a treaty or deal that is formally established between the United States and Iran, either through signing or other formal means.\n\nAgreement refers to an explicit acceptance, authorization or consent to the specified action. Only announcements of definitive agreement will qualify. Suggestions, negotiations, expressions of openness, or other non-definitive statements will not qualify.\n\nAny definitive agreement or commitment made before the resolution date will be considered, regardless of when or whether the specified action is begun.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Donald Trump and the US government and their official representatives; however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used to verify the details of an announcement or formal agreement.","\"What Iranian demands will Trump agree to by May 31?\" is a geopolitics prediction market asking whether the United States, under Donald Trump or another authorized representative, will definitively agree to Iran’s continued enrichment of uranium by the May 31, 2026 deadline. The event resolves \"Yes\" only if the U.S. publicly announces explicit acceptance of Iran’s right to continue enriching uranium, or if that position is formally included in a treaty or deal with Iran. General negotiations, openness, or non-definitive statements do not count. This matters because uranium enrichment remains a central issue in U.S.-Iran relations, sanctions policy, and any broader ceasefire or diplomatic agreement involving the two countries. Traders are currently assigning about an 11.5% probability to a Yes outcome, suggesting the market expects a low chance of formal U.S. agreement before the end date. As a prediction market, the listing reflects current market sentiment, odds, and event prediction around a high-stakes foreign policy decision.",3880525.7414259994,{"id":188,"title":189,"slug":190,"category":8,"subcategory":13,"tags":191,"probability":192,"createdAt":193,"updatedAt":194,"resolutionDate":82,"description":195,"summary":196,"volume1wk":197,"featured":26},"504099","Iran ceasefire continues through...?","iran-ceasefire-continues-through",[13,36,18,15],100,"2026-05-30T10:42:43.405Z","2026-05-30T10:36:50.144Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the US-Iranian ceasefire remains in effect through the listed date (ET).  Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. \n\nThe US-Iranian ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect if the US government officially publicly confirms or if an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirms that the U.S. conducted a kinetic military action on Iranian soil before the resolution date. \n\nConfirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action must occur within one calendar day following the underlying action (i.e., by 11:59 PM ET on the following calendar day) in order to qualify. Accordingly, this market will remain open for one calendar day following the listed end date to allow for confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action occurring near the deadline.\n\nA qualifying \"kinetic military action\" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory. \n\nKinetic action against Iranian forces which do not occur within Iranian terrestrial territory will not qualify. \n\nActions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.\n\nThe resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.","Iran ceasefire continues through...? is a geopolitics prediction market asking whether the US-Iranian ceasefire will remain in effect through the listed deadline. The market resolves to Yes if no qualifying US kinetic military action on Iranian soil is officially confirmed by the US government or established by overwhelming credible reporting before the resolution date. A qualifying action is narrowly defined as aerial bombs, drones, or missiles launched by US military forces that impact Iranian territory; other forms of conflict, including artillery, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks, do not count under the rules. The event matters because it tracks the durability of a fragile ceasefire in a high-stakes geopolitical conflict and helps summarize market sentiment around escalation risk. Traders in this prediction market are effectively forecasting the expected outcome based on developments in US-Iran relations and conflict reporting. The market opened on May 20, 2026, and remains open for one additional day after the listed end date to allow time for confirmation. Current market probability is 100%, indicating the market is overwhelmingly pricing in that the ceasefire will continue through the resolution window, though odds can still change if new reporting emerges.",25312735.30568604,{"id":199,"title":200,"slug":201,"category":8,"subcategory":202,"tags":203,"probability":208,"createdAt":209,"updatedAt":210,"resolutionDate":40,"description":211,"summary":212,"volume1wk":213,"featured":214},"486199","Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by...?","russia-x-ukraine-ceasefire-by","putin",[202,204,205,32,15,206,207],"Ukraine","zelensky","Ukraine Peace Deal","zelenskyy",3.85,"2026-05-30T10:43:01.225Z","2026-06-16T10:07:30.570Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine goes into effect by 11:59 PM Eastern European Time (EET) on the specified date and remains continuously in effect for at least 10 calendar days. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA ceasefire refers to any mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries, and which constitutes a general suspension of direct kinetic military engagement across the primary theater of the overall conflict. A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause (including holiday ceasefires) will count provided they otherwise qualify under this market’s rules. \n\nAny form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.\n\nAny calendar day (EET) during which the ceasefire is in effect (including the first day of the ceasefire) will count towards the 10-day total. The required 10 day period will end at 11:59 PM EET on the 10th day (inclusive). If a qualifying ceasefire goes into effect prior to this market’s end date, this market will remain open until the ceasefire is no longer in effect, or until the 10 calendar days have been reached. \n\nA ceasefire is considered no longer in effect when a consensus of credible reporting indicates the general suspension of hostilities has substantively ended across the primary theater. Temporary or technical lapses or expiration of a formal ceasefire term, isolated incidents, localized violations, or accusations alone will not invalidate the ceasefire provided the general suspension of hostilities across the primary theater continues. Where official government statements conflict with a consensus of credible field reporting, the reporting will take precedence over the government statements. \n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.\n\nExamples of qualifying Ceasefires:\n\nApril 8, 2026 US–Iran ceasefire: The United States and Iran publicly announced and implemented a mutually agreed ceasefire framework intended to broadly halt direct military hostilities between the two countries. Despite subsequent maritime confrontations, alleged violations, isolated retaliatory strikes, and disputes regarding compliance, the broader ceasefire framework continued to function and widescale fighting across the primary theater did not resume.\n\nNovember 27, 2024 Israel–Hezbollah ceasefire: Israel and Hezbollah implemented a broadly operative ceasefire framework brokered through international mediators that substantially reduced hostilities across southern Lebanon and northern Israel, including the effective halt of Israel’s major ground offensive into Lebanon and a significant reduction in Hezbollah rocket fire. Although the ceasefire was not formally announced through a single joint declaration by both parties and public statements differed in framing and characterization, a consensus of credible reporting confirmed the arrangement had been mutually agreed and implemented in practice. Despite continued isolated strikes, alleged violations, and disputes regarding compliance, credible reporting broadly treated the ceasefire as remaining operational and widescale fighting across the primary theater of the conflict did not resume.\n\nExamples of non qualifying Ceasefires:\n\nNovember 24, 2023 Israel–Hamas humanitarian pause: Although it was a mutually agreed and publicly announced broad suspension of hostilities across Gaza, the ceasefire framework remained in effect for only approximately 7 days before wide-scale fighting resumed, failing the required 10-calendar-day duration requirement. Ceasefire violations prior to November 30, would not have invalidated the ceasefire. \n\nJuly 22, 2022 Black Sea Grain Initiative: Although Russia and Ukraine entered into internationally brokered agreements governing grain exports and reducing risks to commercial shipping in the Black Sea, the arrangement did not constitute a general suspension of direct military engagement across the primary theater of the war. Hostilities continued across Ukraine throughout the duration of the agreement and the arrangement applied only to specific categories of activity and geographic areas.\n\nMay 2023 Sudan ceasefires (SAF–RSF): Although the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and Rapid Support Forces (RSF) publicly agreed to multiple internationally brokered ceasefires, a consensus of credible reporting indicated that the general suspension of hostilities across the primary theater never substantively took effect and large-scale fighting broadly continued throughout the ceasefire periods. While some temporary reductions in violence and localized humanitarian access reportedly occurred in certain areas, artillery fire, airstrikes, urban combat, troop movements, and offensive operations continued across major parts of Sudan almost immediately after implementation. Credible reporting broadly treated the ceasefires as having failed or collapsed in practice despite technically remaining in force on paper.","Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by...? is a geopolitics prediction market asking whether Russia and Ukraine will enter a qualifying ceasefire by the specified deadline and keep it in effect for at least 10 consecutive calendar days. The event focuses on a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement across the main theater of the war, confirmed by official announcement or credible reporting, rather than a limited pause, humanitarian lull, or partial restriction. The market resolves based on a consensus of credible sources, with the result depending on whether a broader truce, peace deal, or ceasefire framework meets the event rules before 11:59 PM EET on the end date, currently set for December 31, 2026. As a geopolitical forecast tied to the Russia-Ukraine war, the market draws attention to developments involving Vladimir Putin, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Ukraine, and, indirectly, Donald Trump-related diplomacy or policy expectations. Current market probability is about 4.5%, suggesting traders see a ceasefire as possible but not the expected outcome. That pricing reflects cautious market sentiment around negotiations, battlefield conditions, and the difficulty of sustaining any agreement long enough to satisfy the 10-day threshold.",80567.72755299995,false,{"id":216,"title":217,"slug":218,"category":8,"subcategory":219,"tags":220,"probability":223,"createdAt":224,"updatedAt":225,"resolutionDate":40,"description":226,"summary":227,"volume1wk":228,"featured":214},"72347","Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?","will-the-iranian-regime-fall-by-the-end-of-2026","Israel",[219,13,32,221,9,15,91,36,222,11],"World","Reza Pahlavi",9.5,"2026-05-30T10:42:48.165Z","2026-06-16T10:07:30.319Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThis requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.\n\nRoutine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.\n\nPartial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran. \n\nThe resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. ","Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? is a geopolitics prediction market focused on whether the Islamic Republic of Iran will stop governing before December 31, 2026. The forecasted outcome is not a routine political change: it requires a clear break in continuity, such as overthrow, collapse, revolution, civil war, military coup, or another transition that replaces the current system and ends the regime’s de facto authority over most of Iran’s population. Elections, reforms, succession, or internal power shifts that preserve core institutions like the Supreme Leader, Guardian Council, or IRGC under clerical authority do not qualify.\n\nThis event matters because it tracks market sentiment on a major Middle East and Israel-Iran geopolitical risk, with implications for regional security and global politics. Traders are currently assigning about a 14.5% probability to the regime falling by the deadline, suggesting a low but non-zero expected outcome. The market opened on November 3, 2025 and resolves at the end of 2026, with credible reporting used to determine whether the Islamic Republic has ceased to exercise sovereign power. Tags and search interest around Iran, Khamenei, Reza Pahlavi, Trump, and the broader Iran regime debate reflect the event’s political significance.",760380.653698,{"id":230,"title":231,"slug":232,"category":8,"subcategory":204,"tags":233,"probability":235,"createdAt":236,"updatedAt":237,"resolutionDate":55,"description":238,"summary":239,"volume1wk":240,"featured":214},"120108","Which cities will Russia enter by June 30?","which-cities-will-russia-enter-by-june-30",[204,15,234],"Ukraine Map",2.2,"2026-05-30T10:43:06.040Z","2026-06-16T10:07:30.288Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures any territory of [the specified city or settlement] () by June 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET.\n\nTerritory will be considered captured if any part of the city or settlement is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https:\u002F\u002Fstorymaps.arcgis.com\u002Fstories\u002F36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.\n\nFor any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either \"Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine\", “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. \n\nOnce a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.\n\nIf Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https:\u002F\u002Fdeepstatemap.live\u002F) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.\n\nNote: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.","\"Which cities will Russia enter by June 30?\" is a geopolitics prediction market focused on whether Russia will capture any territory of the specified city or settlement in Ukraine by June 30, 2026, based primarily on the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) map. The market resolves to Yes if the relevant area is shown as captured, advanced into, or otherwise under qualifying Russian control on the ISW Ukraine map and the shading persists through the next full update cycle; if ISW is unavailable, DeepStateMap or credible reporting may be used. The forecast matters because it tracks battlefield movement and changing control lines in the Ukraine war, making it a closely watched event prediction for traders following military developments and territorial shifts. As of the latest data, market probability is about 4.1%, suggesting traders see a relatively low chance of a qualifying Russian entry before the deadline. The event starts on December 26, 2025 and closes on June 30, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET, giving the market a clear resolution window for assessing the expected outcome.",42795.0208,{"id":242,"title":243,"slug":244,"category":8,"subcategory":15,"tags":245,"probability":246,"createdAt":247,"updatedAt":248,"resolutionDate":55,"description":249,"summary":250,"volume1wk":251,"featured":214},"528017","Who will Trump meet with in June?","who-will-trump-meet-with-in-june",[15,32,36],0.65,"2026-06-16T10:08:08.125Z","2026-06-16T10:07:25.257Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the listed individual meets with Donald Trump between June 1 and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA meeting is defined as any encounter where both the listed individual and Trump are present and interact with each other in person.\n\nThe resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.","Who will Trump meet with in June? is a geopolitics prediction market focused on whether Donald Trump will have an in-person meeting with a listed individual between June 1 and June 30, 2026, by 11:59 PM ET. The market resolves to Yes only if both Trump and the named person are present and interact face-to-face, with the outcome determined by a consensus of credible reporting. This makes the event a straightforward forecast of diplomatic, political, or other high-profile contact involving Trump during the June 2026 timeframe.\n\nIn prediction market terms, traders are watching market sentiment around which figures are most likely to appear with Trump before the deadline. The current market probability is about 65%, suggesting the market expects at least one qualifying meeting, though the outcome is far from certain. Because the event is tied to real-world reporting and a fixed end date, it is closely watched by participants tracking geopolitical developments, political travel, and public engagements that could affect the odds. As an event prediction in the Geopolitics category, it is useful for monitoring short-term Trump-related headlines and possible meeting confirmations.",57701.360945999986,{"id":253,"title":254,"slug":255,"category":8,"subcategory":15,"tags":256,"probability":257,"createdAt":258,"updatedAt":259,"resolutionDate":40,"description":260,"summary":261,"volume1wk":262,"featured":214},"96069","Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by...?","pedro-snchez-out-as-pm-of-spain-by",[15,36],3.8,"2026-05-30T10:43:04.313Z","2026-06-16T10:07:24.859Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Spain's Prime Minister, Pedro Sánchez, is removed from power for any length of time between December 2, 2025 and the listed date, ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nPrime Minister Pedro Sánchez will be considered removed from power if he announces his resignation, is dismissed, detained, disqualified, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from fulfilling his duties as Prime Minister of Spain within this market's timeframe.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.","Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by...? is a geopolitics prediction market that asks whether Spain’s Prime Minister, Pedro Sánchez, will be removed from power within the market’s timeframe. The event resolves to Yes if Sánchez resigns, is dismissed, detained, disqualified, or otherwise loses the ability to serve as prime minister for any period between December 2, 2025 and the listed end date; otherwise it resolves to No. The market is based on a consensus of credible reporting, making the outcome dependent on verifiable political developments rather than commentary or speculation. As of the latest data, traders assign the event a probability of 8.75%, indicating relatively low market expectations for Sánchez leaving office during the period. For prediction market participants, the listing reflects broader market sentiment around Spanish politics, leadership stability, and the likelihood of a sudden change in government. Because the forecast spans an extended timeline through the end of 2026, odds may shift as new political, legal, or parliamentary developments emerge.",40788.373397,{"id":264,"title":265,"slug":266,"category":8,"subcategory":221,"tags":267,"probability":269,"createdAt":270,"updatedAt":271,"resolutionDate":272,"description":273,"summary":274,"volume1wk":275,"featured":214},"281143","Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?","will-china-invade-taiwan-by-september-30-2026",[221,36,268,15],"China",2.9,"2026-05-30T10:42:57.194Z","2026-06-16T10:07:09.015Z","2026-09-30T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nTerritory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify. \n\nThe resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.","Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? is a geopolitics prediction market asking whether China will commence a military offensive intended to establish control over any part of Taiwan by the September 30, 2026 deadline, with the market resolving at 11:59 PM ET. The event is framed around official confirmation from China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or a permanent UN Security Council member, though credible reporting may also be used to determine the outcome. As a World politics forecast, it focuses on a major Taiwan Strait escalation and the broader strategic risks that such an invasion would pose for regional and global security. Current market probability is about 2.8%, indicating that traders assign a low but non-zero chance to the expected outcome. The prediction market remains active through the end date, and market sentiment will likely continue to reflect developments in China-Taiwan relations, military activity, and international diplomatic signals. This event prediction is closely watched because it sits at the intersection of geopolitics, security analysis, and crisis forecasting.",25908.603848999996,{"id":277,"title":278,"slug":279,"category":8,"subcategory":36,"tags":280,"probability":284,"createdAt":285,"updatedAt":286,"resolutionDate":40,"description":287,"summary":288,"volume1wk":289,"featured":214},"73196","Will US withdraw from NATO by...?","will-us-withdraw-from-nato-before-2027",[36,221,32,281,204,15,282,283],"Foreign Policy","Greenland","NATO",5.25,"2026-05-30T10:43:03.910Z","2026-06-16T10:07:06.386Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the United States formally initiates a withdrawal from NATO or provides an official notice of denunciation to NATO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal as per Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty.\n\nAny action meeting these criteria will qualify for a “Yes” resolution regardless of if its implementation is immediately halted or delayed by judicial or other actions.\n\nThe U.S.'s exit from NATO’s integrated military command structure will not be sufficient to resolve this market to \"Yes\". \n\nThe resolution source will be official information from the US government and NATO, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.","Will US withdraw from NATO by...? is a geopolitics prediction market asking whether the United States will formally begin withdrawing from NATO or submit an official notice of denunciation under Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty by December 31, 2026. The market resolves to “Yes” only if the U.S. government takes one of those official steps; simply leaving NATO’s integrated military command would not be enough. Because the resolution depends on formal government and NATO sources, the event focuses on clear, verifiable policy action rather than broader speculation about foreign policy rhetoric. Traders are using this geopolitical forecast to assess the odds of a major shift in U.S. alliance strategy, with implications for NATO, Europe, Ukraine, Greenland-related tensions, and the wider world order. Current market probability is about 8.3%, indicating market sentiment leans strongly toward “No” at present, though prediction market odds can change quickly as political developments unfold. The event began on November 5, 2025 and remains active through the end-of-year 2026 deadline, making it a closely watched event prediction in the politics category.",43404.392769,{"id":291,"title":292,"slug":293,"category":8,"subcategory":91,"tags":294,"probability":296,"createdAt":297,"updatedAt":298,"resolutionDate":40,"description":299,"summary":300,"volume1wk":301,"featured":214},"237598","Iran leader end of 2026?","iran-leader-end-of-2026",[91,13,221,15,36,11,295],"Rewards 50, 4.5, 100 Deprec",2.35,"2026-05-30T10:42:45.750Z","2026-06-16T10:07:06.068Z","This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.\n\nFormal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.\n\nIf more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.\n\nIndicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.\n\nSymbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.\n\nIf no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.\n\nThe primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.","Iran leader end of 2026? is a geopolitics prediction market that asks who will de facto hold and exercise the powers of head of state in the Islamic Republic of Iran at 12:00 PM ET on December 31, 2026. The event focuses on actual governing control rather than formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition, making it a forecast about who effectively runs the Iranian state at the deadline. That includes control over the armed forces, security services, national institutions, executive decision-making, and core state infrastructure. If no individual exercises effective authority at the specified time, the market resolves to “No Head of State.”\n\nThe issue matters because leadership continuity, regime structure, and internal power dynamics in Iran can shift quickly, especially in a volatile Middle East political environment. Traders are watching for credible reporting on who holds real authority as the resolution date approaches. Current market probability is about 3.25%, suggesting low expected odds for a particular outcome, though prediction market sentiment can change as events unfold. With start date in March 2026 and resolution at the end of 2026, this event remains a key geopolitical forecast for Iran regime watchers and broader Middle East observers.",1419392.740783,{"id":303,"title":304,"slug":305,"category":8,"subcategory":32,"tags":306,"probability":307,"createdAt":308,"updatedAt":309,"resolutionDate":40,"description":310,"summary":311,"volume1wk":312,"featured":214},"326475"," Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?","iran-agrees-to-end-enrichment-of-uranium-by-december-31",[32,144,91,17,18,36,15,13,51],53.5,"2026-05-30T10:42:54.877Z","2026-06-16T10:07:02.604Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.\n\nAny agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if\u002Fwhen the agreement goes into effect.\n\nAn agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.\n\nAn agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. \n\nAgreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. ","Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? is a geopolitics prediction market asking whether Iran will publicly agree to end all uranium enrichment by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The forecast centers on a clear policy shift: a qualifying agreement or pledge must commit Iran to stop all enrichment, whether announced unilaterally or as part of a broader arrangement with the U.S. or Israel. Partial limits, caps, or lower enrichment levels do not count. The market’s primary resolution source is a consensus of credible reporting.\n\nThis event matters because Iran’s nuclear program remains a central issue in Middle East security, U.S.-Iran relations, and wider diplomatic efforts involving Trump-era geopolitics. The prediction market began on March 31, 2026 and runs through the year-end deadline, giving traders a defined timeframe to assess diplomatic developments, official statements, and negotiations. Current market probability is 56.5%, suggesting a modestly favored Yes outcome, though market sentiment can change as new information emerges. As an event prediction, it tracks whether a formal Iranian commitment to end uranium enrichment appears before the deadline.",85459.25639199998,{"id":314,"title":315,"slug":316,"category":8,"subcategory":283,"tags":317,"probability":318,"createdAt":319,"updatedAt":320,"resolutionDate":321,"description":322,"summary":323,"volume1wk":324,"featured":214},"354937","Who will attend the NATO Summit?","will-trump-attend-nato-summit-279",[283,32,13,36,15],83.3,"2026-06-16T10:08:31.139Z","2026-06-16T10:07:01.138Z","2026-07-08T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Donald Trump attends the NATO Summit event scheduled for July 7, 2026 – July 8, 2026\n in Ankara, Türkiye. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf the event is canceled or postponed beyond August 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nAttending the NATO Summit is defined as being in physical attendance in the event at any point between the start and end of the Summit.\n\nThe resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.","Who will attend the NATO Summit? is a geopolitics prediction market focused on whether Donald Trump will physically attend the NATO Summit scheduled for July 7–8, 2026, in Ankara, Türkiye. The market resolves to Yes if Trump is in attendance at any point during the summit, and No if he does not attend. If the summit is canceled or postponed beyond August 30, 2026, the event prediction also resolves to No. The resolution source is a consensus of credible reporting.\n\nThis forecast matters because NATO summits are closely watched for signals about transatlantic policy, alliance coordination, and U.S. political involvement in international security meetings. Traders are effectively pricing the expected outcome of Trump’s participation, making this a useful indicator of market sentiment around the event.\n\nAs of the latest update, the market implies about an 83.3% probability that Trump will attend. The prediction market remains active through the summit date, with odds likely to shift as reporting develops and the July deadline approaches.",11739.815552,{"id":326,"title":327,"slug":328,"category":8,"subcategory":268,"tags":329,"probability":155,"createdAt":330,"updatedAt":331,"resolutionDate":332,"description":333,"summary":334,"volume1wk":335,"featured":214},"281145","Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?","will-china-invade-taiwan-by-december-31-2027",[268,36,221,15],"2026-05-30T10:43:12.634Z","2026-06-16T10:06:59.520Z","2027-12-31T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nTerritory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify. \n\nThe resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.","Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? is a geopolitics prediction market asking whether China will begin a military offensive intended to establish control over any part of Taiwan before the deadline. The market resolves to Yes only if there is official confirmation from China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or a permanent UN Security Council member, or if credible reporting reaches consensus. In practical terms, traders are forecasting the risk of a cross-strait conflict involving the Republic of China (Taiwan), including inhabited islands under its administration. This event matters because any military escalation in the Taiwan Strait would have major implications for regional security, global trade, and international relations. The market is active from March 17, 2026 through December 31, 2027, with current market probability at 15.5%, suggesting traders assign a relatively low but meaningful chance of an invasion within the forecast window. As a geopolitical forecast, it draws attention from participants tracking China, Taiwan, world politics, and broader market sentiment around security risks in East Asia.",215833.591563,{"id":337,"title":338,"slug":339,"category":8,"subcategory":32,"tags":340,"probability":341,"createdAt":342,"updatedAt":343,"resolutionDate":55,"description":344,"summary":345,"volume1wk":346,"featured":214},"527992","Who will Trump speak to in June?","who-will-trump-speak-to-in-june",[32,15,36],0.75,"2026-05-30T10:43:25.773Z","2026-06-16T10:06:53.345Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the listed individual speaks with Donald Trump between June 1 and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to \"No\".\n\nSpeaking is defined as any verbal interaction between the listed individual and Donald Trump, occurring either in person or through verbal communication by phone or video call.\n\nThe resolution source will be credible media reporting. However, in the absence of definitive or in the case of contradictory media reporting, statements by either of the specified individuals or their official representatives will also be considered.\n\nStatements by the specified individuals or their official representatives will only be considered conclusive if the claims explicitly, or in context unambiguously, indicate that a qualifying talk occurred within the specified timeframe and took place via verbal communication, and provided that such claims are not contradicted by the other specified individual, their representatives, or credible media reporting by the end of the third calendar date (ET) following the statement in question.\n\nIf the date\u002Ftime of a qualifying talk cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day following this market's above-specified timeframe, it will resolve to \"No\" regardless of whether it was later confirmed to have taken place.","Who will Trump speak to in June? is a geopolitics prediction market asking which listed individual, if any, will have a verified verbal interaction with Donald Trump between June 1 and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The forecast covers direct speaking in person, by phone, or via video call, with resolution based primarily on credible media reporting and, where needed, statements from the individuals or their official representatives. Because the market requires confirmation within a specific post-period window, the expected outcome depends on timely reporting as well as the substance of any public claims.\n\nThis event matters because it tracks Trump-related political contact during a defined month and gives traders a way to price market sentiment around possible meetings, calls, or media-reported conversations. As of the latest data, the market probability is about 2.9%, suggesting traders see a low chance that the listed person will speak with Trump during the June timeframe. The event is active through June 30, 2026, and remains a clear example of a geopolitical forecast centered on event prediction and information flow.",315355.700886,{"id":348,"title":349,"slug":350,"category":8,"subcategory":49,"tags":351,"probability":354,"createdAt":355,"updatedAt":356,"resolutionDate":357,"description":358,"summary":359,"volume1wk":360,"featured":214},"562974","How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of June 8?","how-many-ships-transit-the-strait-of-hormuz-week-of-june-8",[49,13,352,15,65,353,16],"tanker","Rewards 50, 4.5, 20",2.05,"2026-06-16T10:08:09.686Z","2026-06-16T10:06:51.689Z","2026-06-14T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve according to the finalized total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from June 8, 2026, through June 14, 2026, inclusive.\n\nTransit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on\u002Froll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.\n\nData for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized). \n\nThis market will resolve as soon as data has been finalized for the final date in the specified period. If the data for the final date of the specified period has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if not all relevant data has been released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.\n\nIn case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.\n\nOnly revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https:\u002F\u002Fportwatch.imf.org\u002Fpages\u002Fcb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.","How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of June 8? is a geopolitics prediction market focused on weekly shipping traffic through one of the world’s most strategic oil chokepoints. The forecast resolves using IMF Portwatch’s finalized transit calls for the Strait of Hormuz from June 8, 2026, through June 14, 2026, covering container, dry bulk, roll-on\u002Froll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Because the strait is central to global energy flows, traders often watch this kind of event prediction for signals about regional risk, maritime disruption, and market sentiment around Iran, Hormuz, and oil logistics. The current market probability is about 2.05%, suggesting traders assign a very low chance to the expected outcome being relatively high compared with the market’s threshold or target range. The market opens on June 5, 2026 and is scheduled to end on June 14, 2026, with resolution based on the published IMF Portwatch data once the final date in the period is finalized. For search engines and prediction market users, this event tracks real-world shipping activity rather than headlines, making the underlying data source essential to the forecast.",50816.630097000016,{"id":362,"title":363,"slug":364,"category":8,"subcategory":221,"tags":365,"probability":367,"createdAt":368,"updatedAt":369,"resolutionDate":40,"description":370,"summary":371,"volume1wk":372,"featured":214},"34051","Netanyahu out by...?","netanyahu-out-before-2027",[221,15,91,219,36,366],"Earn 4%",64.5,"2026-05-30T10:42:49.232Z","2026-06-16T10:06:16.880Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Benjamin Netanyahu announces that he will resign as Prime Minister of Israel, or otherwise steps down from\u002Fis removed from this position by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nNote that an announcement of Benjamin Netanyahu's resignation or removal before the resolution date will suffice to resolve this market to \"Yes\" regardless of if\u002Fwhen he actually steps down.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the State of Israel, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.","\"Netanyahu out by...?\" is a geopolitics prediction market on whether Benjamin Netanyahu will announce his resignation as Prime Minister of Israel, or otherwise step down from or be removed from the role, by December 31, 2026. The market resolves to Yes if an official resignation or removal announcement occurs before the deadline, even if the actual transition happens later. If no such announcement or change in office is confirmed by the end date, the outcome resolves to No.\n\nThis event matters because it tracks political stability in Israel and broader Middle East developments, making it relevant to traders following World politics, Israeli government leadership, and event prediction markets. The primary resolution source is official information from the government of the State of Israel, with credible reporting also considered.\n\nAs of the latest update, market probability is around 53.5%, suggesting traders see the outcome as slightly more likely than not, though not certain. The forecast remains active through the end-of-2026 deadline, so sentiment and odds may shift as political conditions change.",563059.4055219998,{"id":374,"title":375,"slug":376,"category":8,"subcategory":13,"tags":377,"probability":19,"createdAt":379,"updatedAt":380,"resolutionDate":82,"description":381,"summary":382,"volume1wk":383,"featured":214},"577376","Iran closes its airspace by...?","iran-closes-its-airspace-byptptpt-20260609184135829",[13,378,91],"Airspace","2026-06-16T10:07:53.091Z","2026-06-16T10:06:04.000Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran initiates a major closure of its airspace, that is not solely due to weather conditions, between June 9, 2026, 3:00 PM ET and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nA “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or suspension of commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from Iranian airspace or a major Iranian Airspace region. A qualifying closure must apply generally to flights across Iran or a major Iranian airspace region. Limited cancellations, delays, or other partial closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain flights pre-approved by the Iranian Civil Aviation Authority may be permitted). \n\nAny non-weather complete suspension of commercial arrivals and departures affecting at least two of the following airports will qualify: Imam Khomeini International Airport (IKA), Mehrabad Airport (THR), Mashhad International Airport (MHD), Shiraz International Airport (SYZ), or Isfahan International Airport (IFN).\n\nQualifying previous examples include the January 2026 total closure of Iranian airspace except to international flights with express governmental permission (https:\u002F\u002Fwww.reuters.com\u002Fworld\u002Fmiddle-east\u002Firan-shuts-airspace-most-flights-flightradar24-says-2026-01-14\u002F) and the April 2024 closure of Iran’s western airspace (https:\u002F\u002Fwww.reuters.com\u002Fworld\u002Fmiddle-east\u002Firanian-airports-cancel-flights-until-monday-morning-2024-04-14\u002F). Non-qualifying examples include the January 27, 2026 partial closure of Iranian airspace around the Strait of Hormuz (https:\u002F\u002Fwww.aa.com.tr\u002Fen\u002Fmiddle-east\u002Firan-issues-airspace-notice-for-military-drills-near-strait-of-hormuz\u002F3812508) and the January 25 - April 25, 2026 VFR (Visual Flight Rules) flights suspension which did not broadly close commercial aviation in a qualifying region (https:\u002F\u002Fwww.intellinews.com\u002Firan-suspends-general-aviation-and-vfr-flights-in-new-airspace-directive-421997\u002F).\n\nWarnings, No-Fly-Zones, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Iran will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.\n\nAirspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from Iranian aviation authorities and a consensus of credible reporting.","“Iran closes its airspace by...?” is a geopolitics prediction market asking whether Iran will initiate a major closure of its airspace between June 9, 2026, 3:00 PM ET and the listed deadline. The forecast resolves to Yes only if Iranian aviation authorities impose a broad suspension, cancellation, or closure affecting commercial flights transiting, arriving in, or departing from Iran, and not solely because of weather. A qualifying closure can include a major regional airspace shutdown or a non-weather suspension affecting at least two of the following airports: Imam Khomeini International Airport (IKA), Mehrabad (THR), Mashhad (MHD), Shiraz (SYZ), or Isfahan (IFN).\n\nThis event matters because airspace restrictions can signal elevated regional tensions, aviation disruption, or government security actions in the Middle East. Traders in this prediction market are watching official Iranian aviation notices and credible reporting for evidence of a qualifying closure. Market sentiment currently implies a 0% probability, though that reflects the platform’s reported pricing rather than a guarantee of the expected outcome. As with any event prediction, only a broad Iranian closure counts; airline restrictions, foreign no-fly zones, or weather-related disruptions do not.",1839041.238883999,{"id":385,"title":386,"slug":387,"category":8,"subcategory":221,"tags":388,"probability":19,"createdAt":392,"updatedAt":393,"resolutionDate":394,"description":395,"summary":396,"volume1wk":397,"featured":214},"17858","Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by...?","ukraine-recognizes-russian-sovereignty-over-ukrainian-territory-in-2025",[221,389,202,32,36,15,281,204,205,390,391],"Trump Presidency","Trump-Putin","Trump-Zelenskyy","2026-05-30T10:43:12.592Z","2026-06-16T10:06:03.756Z","2026-12-31T12:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if a deal in which Ukraine agrees to formally recognize Russian sovereignty over any UN-recognized Ukrainian territory is reached between the Russian Federation and Ukraine by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe deal must be a publicly announced mutual agreement. \n\nIf such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to \"Yes\", regardless of if\u002Fwhen the agreement goes into effect.\n\nAn agreement by Ukraine formally recognizing Russian sovereignty over any UN-recognized Ukrainian territory for any amount of time will count.\n\nAn agreement by Ukraine formally recognizing Russian sovereignty over any UN-recognized Ukrainian territory as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995, “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia, which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement, is an example of a qualifying agreement.\n\nAn official unilateral pledge by Ukraine formally recognizing Russian sovereignty over any UN-recognized Ukrainian territory will qualify for a “Yes” resolution even if not part of an agreement with Russia.\n\nThe April 19, 2013, Brussels Agreement between Serbia and Kosovo, in which Serbia recognized Kosovo’s de facto administration but did not formally grant de jure recognition, would not be considered a qualifying agreement under this market, as this market requires formal recognition of sovereignty rather than acknowledgment of administrative control.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by Ukraine and\u002For the Russian Federation, however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.\n","Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by...? is a geopolitics prediction market focused on whether Ukraine will formally recognize Russian sovereignty over any UN-recognized Ukrainian territory by December 31, 2025. The market resolves “Yes” if Ukraine and Russia publicly announce a mutual agreement, or if Ukraine makes an official unilateral pledge that meets the market’s criteria. A deal reached as part of a broader peace process would also count, as long as it includes formal recognition of sovereignty rather than merely acknowledging administrative control. \n\nThis event matters because it would mark a major shift in the Russia-Ukraine war and in the broader foreign policy debate involving Ukraine, Vladimir Putin, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, and the Trump presidency. As a prediction market, it reflects trader expectations about diplomatic negotiations, ceasefire talks, and the odds of a formal territorial settlement. Current market probability is not shown here, but the event has active liquidity and open interest, indicating ongoing market sentiment around the forecast. The relevant timeframe for resolution runs through the end of 2025, with official announcements or strong credible reporting serving as the primary resolution sources.",25215.724430999995,{"id":399,"title":400,"slug":401,"category":8,"subcategory":16,"tags":402,"probability":404,"createdAt":405,"updatedAt":406,"resolutionDate":55,"description":407,"summary":408,"volume1wk":409,"featured":214},"514425","Which countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?","which-countries-will-send-warships-through-the-strait-of-hormuz-by-june-30",[16,13,403,49,15],"Naval",17.05,"2026-05-30T10:43:20.541Z","2026-06-16T10:06:02.013Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if a national government, its military, or a broad consensus of credible reporting confirms that the listed country's warships transited through the Strait of Hormuz between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nA \"warship transit\" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.\n\nOfficial confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.\n\nQualifying confirmations include statements such as official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.\n\nConfirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.","Which countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30? is a geopolitics prediction market tracking whether any national government or military confirms a warship transit through the Strait of Hormuz before the deadline on June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The market resolves \"Yes\" only if a listed country’s naval vessels are officially confirmed to have passed through the narrowest section of the waterway between Iran and Oman, or if credible reporting reaches an overwhelming consensus that the transit occurred. Operations elsewhere in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea do not count.\n\nThis forecast matters because the Strait of Hormuz is one of the world’s most strategically important maritime chokepoints, especially for oil shipping and regional security involving Iran, the U.S., and other naval powers. Traders are watching for any escalation, escort missions, or naval deployments that specifically include passage through the strait. Current market probability is about 17%, suggesting relatively low but non-trivial odds that at least one qualifying warship transit will be confirmed before the end date. The event is useful for gauging market sentiment on Middle East maritime risk and geopolitical escalation.",841755.0502090022,{"id":411,"title":412,"slug":413,"category":8,"subcategory":15,"tags":414,"probability":19,"createdAt":418,"updatedAt":419,"resolutionDate":169,"description":420,"summary":421,"volume1wk":422,"featured":214},"386759","Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by...?","israel-x-hezbollah-permanent-peace-deal-by",[15,13,219,415,18,416,417,37],"Israel x Iran","Lebanon","Hezbollah","2026-05-30T10:42:46.269Z","2026-06-16T10:05:46.556Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Hezbollah agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nA permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the 10-day ceasefire agreement announced on April 16, 2026), will not qualify.\n\nA qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:\n\n- Israel and Hezbollah each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.\n\n- Both Israel and Hezbollah provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.\n\nThe inclusion of Israel and Hezbollah in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel and Hezbollah; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.","Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by...? is a geopolitics prediction market asking whether Israel and Hezbollah will reach a permanent peace agreement by the deadline of 11:59 PM ET on May 31, 2026. The forecast focuses on a lasting end to military hostilities, not a temporary ceasefire extension or other short-term arrangement. To resolve “Yes,” the market requires either a written agreement formally adopted by both sides or clear public confirmation that a qualifying permanent deal has been definitively reached. In a broader regional context, the event also reflects ongoing risk around Lebanon, Israel, and Iran-linked tensions. Market sentiment is currently extremely bearish on a lasting agreement, with the listed probability at 0%, suggesting traders see no expected outcome of a permanent peace deal before expiry. As a prediction market, the event tracks odds and trader expectations around whether diplomacy can produce an explicit, durable settlement rather than another temporary pause in hostilities.",2433095.8521550014,{"id":424,"title":425,"slug":426,"category":8,"subcategory":219,"tags":427,"probability":428,"createdAt":429,"updatedAt":430,"resolutionDate":55,"description":431,"summary":432,"volume1wk":433,"featured":214},"431776","U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by June 30?","us-evacuates-beirut-embassy-by-june-30",[219,15,91,417,416],2.1,"2026-05-30T10:43:03.027Z","2026-06-16T10:05:39.859Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the U.S. government announces a full evacuation of the U.S. Embassy in Beirut, Lebanon, or a full evacuation of the embassy is otherwise confirmed between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA full evacuation announced within this market's timeframe will qualify for a \"Yes\" resolution regardless of whether an actual evacuation subsequently takes place within the timeframe.\n\nAnnouncements of a partial evacuation, where some staff are intended to remain, will not count.\n\nThe resolution source will be official statements from the U.S. government or a consensus of credible reporting confirming the evacuation of the embassy.  ","U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by June 30? is a geopolitics prediction market tied to whether the U.S. government announces a full evacuation of the U.S. Embassy in Beirut, Lebanon, before June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The market resolves to Yes only if a full evacuation is officially announced or otherwise confirmed within the timeframe; a partial evacuation, where some staff remain, does not qualify. Credible reporting or official U.S. government statements will be used as the resolution source.\n\nThis event matters because embassy evacuations are a significant signal of deteriorating security conditions in the Middle East, particularly in the context of Lebanon, Hezbollah, and broader Israel-related regional risk. Traders in this prediction market are effectively forecasting whether conditions around the U.S. diplomatic presence in Beirut become severe enough to require a complete withdrawal.\n\nCurrent market probability is about 7%, suggesting low but non-zero odds of the expected outcome. The event opened on May 26, 2026 and runs until the June 30 deadline, making market sentiment sensitive to official announcements, credible news reports, and any escalation affecting U.S. diplomatic operations in Lebanon.",24488.549754,{"id":435,"title":436,"slug":437,"category":8,"subcategory":15,"tags":438,"probability":441,"createdAt":442,"updatedAt":443,"resolutionDate":55,"description":444,"summary":445,"volume1wk":446,"featured":214},"46844","Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30?","will-china-blockade-taiwan-by-june-30",[15,221,268,439,440],"Taiwan","HFC",0.55,"2026-05-30T10:42:59.971Z","2026-06-16T10:05:28.646Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if China (People's Republic of China) announces it has established or otherwise de facto establishes an arial or naval blockade for the territory of Taiwan (Republic of China) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA qualifying blockade is:\n- Prevents the normal ingress or egress of foreign commercial traffic to or from Taiwan Island’s main ports or airports by threat or use of force for ≥ 24 hours.\n- Covers part or whole of the main island of Taiwan (Formosa).\n- Is declared and enforced, de facto (e.g., it is established that China is blocking a significant portion of foreign commercial traffic, as described above, by a wide consensus of credible reporting regardless of whether China has issued a statement or not), or China-issued navigation\u002Fairspace prohibitions covering Taiwan's main island's approach lanes that are actively enforced so that most foreign commercial access is denied.\n\nA qualifying blockade is not:\n- Military or naval exercises or drills (established with warning areas or NOTAMs that do not actively stop third-country ships\u002Faircraft and do not materially deny access).\n- Purely economic or coercive measures (e.g., sanctions, customs delays, fishing bans, cyber\u002FGPS jamming) without physical interdiction or enforced closure).\n- Weather\u002Faccident-related closures or voluntary rerouting by operators absent PRC enforcement.\n- Islet-only incidents that do not involve the main island of Taiwan.\n- Seizure or inspection of a single vessel\u002Faircraft by itself, unless part of an enforced pattern that denies access as defined above.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.","Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? is a geopolitics prediction market asking whether the People’s Republic of China will announce or de facto establish an air or naval blockade of Taiwan by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The forecast focuses on a clearly defined outcome: a blockade must materially prevent normal foreign commercial traffic to or from Taiwan’s main ports or airports for at least 24 hours, under threat or use of force, or through enforced PRC restrictions that broadly deny access. Routine military drills, sanctions, or temporary disruptions without physical interdiction do not qualify. This event matters because a Taiwan blockade would represent a major escalation in cross-strait tensions and a significant geopolitical shock with implications for regional security, global trade, and market sentiment. Traders are currently assigning a very low probability of about 1.2%, suggesting the market expects the outcome to remain unlikely before the end-date. Resolution will depend on a broad consensus of credible reporting, making this a high-scrutiny event prediction for geopolitics and China-Taiwan risk.",92695.288067,{"id":448,"title":449,"slug":450,"category":8,"subcategory":32,"tags":451,"probability":452,"createdAt":453,"updatedAt":454,"resolutionDate":55,"description":455,"summary":456,"volume1wk":457,"featured":214},"206793"," Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?","iran-agrees-to-end-enrichment-of-uranium-by-june-30",[32,15,36,144,91,221,13,18,51],37.5,"2026-05-30T10:42:51.905Z","2026-06-16T10:05:15.023Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.\n\nAny agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if\u002Fwhen the agreement goes into effect.\n\nAn agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.\n\nAn agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. \n\nAgreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. ","Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? is a geopolitics prediction market focused on whether Iran will publicly agree to stop all uranium enrichment before the June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET deadline. The market resolves to Yes only if Iran makes a qualifying public pledge, either on its own or as part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel. A temporary commitment, an agreement tied to a broader peace process, or a pledge made before the deadline would count, but a mere cap or reduction in enrichment levels would not.\n\nThis event matters because uranium enrichment is central to nuclear nonproliferation, Middle East security, and U.S.-Iran negotiations, making it a closely watched geopolitical forecast. Market sentiment currently places the probability at 26.5%, suggesting traders see the outcome as possible but not the base case. As a prediction market with active trading, it reflects evolving odds around diplomacy, regional conflict, and nuclear policy. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.",1537655.2906220006,{"id":459,"title":460,"slug":461,"category":8,"subcategory":221,"tags":462,"probability":463,"createdAt":464,"updatedAt":465,"resolutionDate":55,"description":466,"summary":467,"volume1wk":468,"featured":214},"107726","Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?","will-china-invade-taiwan-by-june-30-2026",[221,268,15,36],0.35,"2026-05-30T10:42:49.544Z","2026-06-16T10:05:12.488Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nTerritory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify. \n\nThe resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.","Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? is a geopolitics prediction market focused on whether China will begin a military offensive intended to establish control over any part of the Republic of China (Taiwan) before the deadline of June 30, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. The forecast resolves to Yes if such an offensive begins, including actions affecting inhabited islands under Taiwan’s administration, and No if it does not occur by the cutoff. Because this is a world politics event with major implications for regional security, trade, and U.S.-China tensions, it draws attention from traders tracking geopolitical risk and event prediction signals.\n\nMarket sentiment currently implies a 0.95 probability of a Yes outcome, suggesting very strong expectations in the prediction market, though that probability is not a guarantee. Resolution may rely on official confirmation from China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or a permanent member of the UN Security Council, with credible reporting also considered. As the end date approaches, odds and trading volume may continue to reflect changing geopolitical developments.",680097.4484820002,{"id":470,"title":471,"slug":472,"category":8,"subcategory":281,"tags":473,"probability":474,"createdAt":475,"updatedAt":476,"resolutionDate":40,"description":477,"summary":478,"volume1wk":479,"featured":214},"34044","Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?","will-china-invade-taiwan-before-2027",[281,268,36,221,15,366],6.15,"2026-05-30T10:42:48.937Z","2026-06-16T10:05:05.712Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nTerritory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify. \n\nThe resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.","Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? is a geopolitics prediction market asking whether China will begin a military offensive intended to establish control over any part of Taiwan, including inhabited islands, before the December 31, 2026 deadline at 11:59 PM ET. The event sits in the Foreign Policy category and focuses on a major risk in China-Taiwan relations, an issue with broad implications for regional security, global trade, and international diplomacy. In this forecast, traders are pricing the odds of a “Yes” outcome at about 6.55%, suggesting market sentiment currently favors no invasion before the cutoff. Resolution depends on official confirmation from China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or a permanent member of the UN Security Council, with credible reporting also able to settle the event. For prediction market participants, this is a high-profile geopolitical forecast tied to event-driven risk, policy signaling, and shifting expectations over time.",825682.3242800002,{"id":481,"title":482,"slug":483,"category":8,"subcategory":484,"tags":485,"probability":490,"createdAt":491,"updatedAt":492,"resolutionDate":55,"description":493,"summary":494,"volume1wk":495,"featured":214},"528455","Who will meet with Iran by June 30?","who-will-meet-with-iran-by-june-30","Witkoff",[484,486,17,487,32,18,36,488,13,15,489],"Vance","Kushner","Diplomatic meeting","rubio",13.05,"2026-06-16T10:08:13.337Z","2026-06-16T10:04:51.113Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if there is a diplomatic meeting between the listed individual, acting as a representative of the United States, and representatives of Iran by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nTo qualify, the listed individual must be physically present at the meeting and actively participate as a negotiator representing the United States.\n\nA diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.\n\nBrief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.\n\nThe meeting must be in-person and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.","\"Who will meet with Iran by June 30?\" is a geopolitics prediction market focused on whether a listed U.S. representative will hold an in-person diplomatic meeting with representatives of Iran before June 30, 2026. The event is designed to resolve to Yes only if the individual is physically present, actively negotiates on behalf of the United States, and the meeting is publicly acknowledged by either government or supported by consensus credible reporting. Remote calls, casual encounters, and unofficial talks do not qualify. The market centers on U.S.-Iran relations and the broader possibility of diplomatic engagement, making it relevant to traders tracking geopolitical forecast activity, negotiation signals, and market sentiment around Iran ceasefire and diplomacy-related developments. Tags such as Witkoff, Vance, Kushner, Trump, Rubio, and U.S. x Iran reflect the range of figures and policy dynamics that could shape the expected outcome. The prediction market opened on May 26, 2026 and runs through June 30, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Current market probability is about 13.05%, indicating traders see a meeting as possible but not yet the base-case forecast.",37256.007701,{"id":497,"title":498,"slug":499,"category":8,"subcategory":13,"tags":500,"probability":341,"createdAt":504,"updatedAt":505,"resolutionDate":55,"description":506,"summary":507,"volume1wk":508,"featured":214},"211827","Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?","will-france-uk-or-germany-strike-iran-by-june-30-259",[13,91,501,502,15,503],"United Kingdom","Europe","Military Strikes","2026-05-30T10:42:48.853Z","2026-06-16T10:04:42.953Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if France, the United Kingdom, or Germany initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purposes of this market, a qualifying \"strike\" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by French, United Kingdom, or German military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a French, United Kingdom, or German missile, this market will resolve to \"Yes\").\n\nMissiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a \"Yes\" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.\n\nActions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by French, United Kingdom, or German ground operatives will not qualify.\n\nThe resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.","Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? is a geopolitics prediction market asking whether any of those three European powers will launch a qualifying drone, missile, or air strike against Iranian territory or an official Iranian embassy or consulate by June 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. The event is focused on a narrow military outcome: a strike must be carried out by French, United Kingdom, or German military forces and must land on Iranian soil or diplomatic property to resolve “Yes.” Intercepted missiles, surface-to-air fire, artillery, cyberattacks, and ground operations do not count under the market rules. As a geopolitical forecast, it draws attention to tensions involving Iran, the Middle East, Europe, and military strikes, with traders watching for any escalation that could alter market sentiment. Current market probability is about 3.15%, indicating that the expected outcome is a low chance of direct strike action. The resolution will rely on a consensus of credible reporting, making this an event prediction tied closely to verified public disclosures before the June 30 deadline.",405202.83449399995,{"id":510,"title":511,"slug":512,"category":8,"subcategory":15,"tags":513,"probability":19,"createdAt":516,"updatedAt":517,"resolutionDate":40,"description":518,"summary":519,"volume1wk":520,"featured":214},"435099","Crude Oil all time high by...?","crude-oil-all-time-high-by",[15,514,49,515,13],"Commodities","Finance","2026-05-30T10:42:52.729Z","2026-06-16T10:04:41.468Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if, on any trading day after market creation, the official daily high price published by the CME Group for the Active Month (front month) of CME Crude Oil (CL) futures is greater than $147.27 by the final trading day on or before the specified date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example, if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.\n\nThis market will resolve as soon as a high price greater than the listed value is published, or once finalized data for the final trading day of the specified time period is published and a high price greater than $147.27 has not been achieved.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the CME Group website (https:\u002F\u002Fwww.cmegroup.com\u002Fmarkets\u002Fenergy\u002Fcrude-oil\u002Flight-sweet-crude.quotes.html) — specifically, the daily \"High\" prices for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.","Crude Oil all time high by...? is a geopolitics prediction market asking whether CME front-month crude oil futures will trade above $147.27 before the market’s deadline on December 31, 2026. The contract resolves “Yes” if the CME Group’s official daily high for the active month of CME Crude Oil (CL) futures exceeds that level on any trading day after market creation; otherwise it resolves “No.” Because the market uses the active month front contract, it tracks the nearest listed CL futures month and can settle as soon as qualifying CME data is published. This event matters because crude oil prices are closely watched across geopolitics, commodities, finance, and energy markets, with traders often using prediction markets to gauge market sentiment around supply shocks, inflation, and Iran-related risk. Current market probability stands at about 30%, suggesting traders see the odds of a new all-time high as possible but far from assured. The forecast is therefore centered on whether crude oil can break its prior peak before the end-of-year cutoff, making this a closely watched event prediction for energy and geopolitics watchers.",157604.058384,{"id":522,"title":523,"slug":524,"category":8,"subcategory":206,"tags":525,"probability":527,"createdAt":528,"updatedAt":529,"resolutionDate":40,"description":530,"summary":531,"volume1wk":532,"featured":214},"478472","Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?","russia-x-ukraine-ceasefire-agreement-by",[206,36,204,526,202,15,205,32,207],"Russia",47.5,"2026-05-30T10:42:47.359Z","2026-06-16T10:04:23.797Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nA ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.\n\nA broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.\n\nAny form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.\n\nOnly agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.\n\nIf a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.\n\nThe primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.","Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...? is a geopolitics prediction market asking whether Russia and Ukraine will reach a mutually agreed ceasefire by the specified deadline, 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026. The forecast resolves to Yes only if there is a qualifying ceasefire agreement officially announced by both sides or confirmed by consensus credible reporting. Broader peace deals, truces, or humanitarian pauses count only if they include a dated suspension of direct military engagement; informal understandings, partial pauses, or future negotiation frameworks do not. \n\nThis event matters because it tracks the prospects for a meaningful reduction in fighting in the Russia-Ukraine war, a central issue in Ukraine peace deal and geopolitical forecasting markets. Traders are watching official statements from the governments of Russia and Ukraine, along with reliable news coverage, for signs of an agreement before the market’s end date. Current market probability is about 43.5%, suggesting mixed market sentiment on whether a ceasefire will be reached in time.",360411.89611999993,{"id":534,"title":535,"slug":536,"category":8,"subcategory":537,"tags":538,"probability":19,"createdAt":541,"updatedAt":542,"resolutionDate":55,"description":543,"summary":544,"volume1wk":545,"featured":214},"130985","Thailand strikes Cambodia by...?","thailand-strikes-cambodia-by-966","Thailand-Cambodia",[537,15,539,540,221,36],"Asia","Military Actions","2026-05-30T10:43:15.904Z","2026-06-16T10:04:17.311Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Thailand initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Cambodian soil or any Cambodian embassy or consulate by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purposes of this market, a qualifying \"strike\" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Thai military forces that impact Cambodian ground territory or any official Cambodian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Cambodian soil is hit by an Thailand missile, this market will resolve to \"Yes\") that is officially acknowledged by the Thailand government or a consensus of credible reporting.\n\nMissiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a \"Yes\" resolution regardless of whether they land on Cambodian territory or cause damage.\n\nActions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Thai ground operatives will not qualify.\n\nThe resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.\n\nIf there is ambiguity as to whether a qualifying strike occurred, this market may remain open after resolution time for confirming evidence.","Thailand strikes Cambodia by...? is a geopolitics prediction market asking whether Thailand will initiate a qualifying drone, missile, or air strike on Cambodian soil, or against a Cambodian embassy or consulate, by the listed deadline. The market resolves to Yes only if Thai military forces launch aerial bombs, drones, or missiles that impact Cambodian territory or official Cambodian diplomatic property, based on credible reporting or an official acknowledgment from the Thailand government. It excludes artillery fire, ground incursions, cyberattacks, naval shelling, and intercepted missiles or drones that do not meet the stated criteria. This event matters because any escalation between Thailand and Cambodia would signal a serious deterioration in regional security and could affect broader market sentiment on Southeast Asia military risk. The forecast is currently priced at 0%, indicating traders see no immediate expectation of a qualifying strike at this time, though prediction market odds can change quickly as new reports emerge. The market is active through the specified resolution window ending June 30, 2026, with final resolution potentially delayed if evidence remains ambiguous.",45258.860215,{"id":547,"title":548,"slug":549,"category":8,"subcategory":526,"tags":550,"probability":551,"createdAt":552,"updatedAt":553,"resolutionDate":554,"description":555,"summary":556,"volume1wk":557,"featured":214},"574643","Russia x Ukraine any diplomatic meeting by...?","russia-x-ukraine-any-diplomatic-meeting-byptptpt-20260609011544748",[526,15,36,207,205,204,202],74,"2026-06-16T10:08:29.659Z","2026-06-16T10:04:16.112Z","2026-12-30T20:59:00.000Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of Russia and Ukraine by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nA diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding Russia-Ukraine relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. \n\nBrief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.\n\nThe meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.\n\nThe resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine, and a consensus of credible reporting.","Russia x Ukraine any diplomatic meeting by...? is a geopolitics prediction market asking whether representatives of Russia and Ukraine will hold an in-person diplomatic meeting by the listed deadline. The market resolves to Yes only if there is a deliberate meeting between officials authorized to negotiate or conduct diplomacy on behalf of their governments, including indirect in-person meetings through approved mediators or interlocutors. Casual encounters, brief greetings, phone calls, and remote discussions do not count. The outcome must be publicly acknowledged by either government or supported by a consensus of credible media. This event matters because any direct diplomatic contact between Moscow and Kyiv can signal shifts in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, negotiations, or broader market sentiment around de-escalation. The forecast runs from the market’s start date in June 2026 through the end date of December 30, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Current market probability is about 74%, suggesting traders see a relatively high chance of a qualifying diplomatic meeting before the deadline, though the event prediction remains uncertain and dependent on official developments.",12885.361033,{"id":559,"title":560,"slug":561,"category":8,"subcategory":562,"tags":563,"probability":19,"createdAt":564,"updatedAt":565,"resolutionDate":566,"description":567,"summary":568,"volume1wk":569,"featured":214},"17526","China x India military clash by...?","china-x-india-military-clash-by-december-31","India",[562,36,268,15,221],"2026-05-30T10:43:11.049Z","2026-06-16T10:04:05.175Z","2025-12-31T12:00:00.000Z","This is a market on the likelihood of a military clash between China and India occurring by December 31.","China x India military clash by...? is a geopolitics prediction market asking whether a military clash between China and India will occur by December 31, 2025. The forecast focuses on a real-world security outcome involving two major powers with long-running border tensions, making it a closely watched event in India and broader global politics. Traders in this market are effectively pricing the odds that some form of military confrontation, rather than diplomatic calm, will happen before the deadline. As of the latest market data, the implied probability is 0%, though prediction market sentiment can change if new developments affect the outlook. The event runs from January 30, 2025, through December 31, 2025, giving participants a clear window for event prediction and reassessment as geopolitical conditions evolve. This market sits within the India subcategory and is relevant to geopolitics, world affairs, and political risk analysis.",15124.057554,{"id":571,"title":572,"slug":573,"category":8,"subcategory":13,"tags":574,"probability":575,"createdAt":576,"updatedAt":577,"resolutionDate":578,"description":579,"summary":580,"volume1wk":581,"featured":214},"524105"," Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?","iran-agrees-to-end-enrichment-of-uranium-by-july-31",[13,91,32,15,17,18,36,144,51],40.5,"2026-06-16T10:08:05.743Z","2026-06-16T10:03:57.345Z","2026-07-31T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.\n\nAny agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if\u002Fwhen the agreement goes into effect.\n\nAn agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.\n\nAn agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. \n\nAgreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. ","Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? is a geopolitics prediction market focused on whether Iran will publicly commit to ending all uranium enrichment by July 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. The forecast matters because a formal pledge would signal a major shift in U.S.-Iran and broader Middle East nuclear tensions, with implications for diplomacy involving Iran, the U.S., Israel, and related negotiation topics. For this event prediction to resolve to Yes, Iran must make a public agreement or pledge to end enrichment entirely before the deadline; partial limits, caps, or reductions below weapons-grade levels do not qualify. The market can resolve from a unilateral announcement or as part of a broader deal or peace process, even if the agreement is not fully finalized. Current market sentiment prices the probability at about 40.5%, suggesting traders see the expected outcome as possible but far from certain. As a prediction market, this listing reflects evolving odds based on credible reporting and trader assessment through the July 31 resolution date.",79897.13291599999,{"id":583,"title":584,"slug":585,"category":8,"subcategory":91,"tags":586,"probability":587,"createdAt":588,"updatedAt":589,"resolutionDate":590,"description":591,"summary":592,"volume1wk":593,"featured":214},"514376","Iran x Oman Strait of Hormuz agreement by June 15?","iran-x-oman-strait-of-hormuz-agreement-by-june-15",[91,16,36,13,15],19.55,"2026-06-16T10:08:32.609Z","2026-06-16T10:03:45.228Z","2026-06-15T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if an official agreement relating to vessel traffic, transit management, tolling, or fee collection in the Strait of Hormuz, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between Iran and Oman between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nIf such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to \"Yes\", regardless of if\u002Fwhen the agreement goes into effect.\n\nStatements describing talks, proposals, negotiations, or non-finalized frameworks that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not qualify.\n\nAn agreement will qualify as a mutual agreement if it is confirmed as a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if the agreement isn’t formally announced by both governments.\n\nAgreements that include Iran and Oman as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Iran and Oman; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.","Iran x Oman Strait of Hormuz agreement by June 15? is a geopolitics prediction market focused on whether Iran and Oman will reach a publicly announced mutual agreement on vessel traffic, transit management, tolling, or fee collection in the Strait of Hormuz before June 15 at 11:59 PM ET. The event resolves to Yes only if an official agreement is confirmed by the governments involved or by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting; talks, proposals, and non-finalized frameworks do not count. This matters because the Strait of Hormuz is a strategic chokepoint for global shipping and any formal Iran-Oman arrangement could affect regional maritime policy and broader Middle East market sentiment. The forecast is currently pricing in a 19.55% probability, suggesting traders see an agreement as possible but not the base expected outcome. With the market running from May 22 to the June 15 deadline, the event prediction centers on whether diplomacy will produce a finalized deal within the resolution window.",10502.249112,{"id":595,"title":596,"slug":597,"category":8,"subcategory":15,"tags":598,"probability":463,"createdAt":599,"updatedAt":600,"resolutionDate":55,"description":601,"summary":602,"volume1wk":603,"featured":214},"107711","Xi Jinping out by June 30?","xi-jinping-out-by",[15,221],"2026-05-30T10:42:59.201Z","2026-06-16T10:03:31.335Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if China's General Secretary of the Communist Party, Xi Jinping, is removed from power for any length of time between this market's creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nCCP General Secretary Xi Jinping will be considered removed from power if he announces his resignation from his role as General Secretary, or is otherwise dismissed, detained, disqualified, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from fulfilling his duties as General Secretary within this market's timeframe.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.","\"Xi Jinping out by June 30?\" is a geopolitics prediction market focused on whether China’s General Secretary, Xi Jinping, will be removed from power at any point between the market’s creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The forecast resolves to Yes if Xi resigns, is dismissed, detained, disqualified, or otherwise loses his position or is unable to carry out his duties as General Secretary within that timeframe. The market relies on a consensus of credible reporting to determine the outcome.\n\nThis event matters because it tracks potential leadership stability at the top of the Chinese Communist Party, a subject with broad implications for global geopolitics, markets, and international policy analysis. As of the latest market data, traders assign roughly an 85% probability to the Yes outcome, indicating strong market sentiment that Xi will be out before the deadline. For prediction market participants, the key event prediction is whether any qualifying removal occurs before the June 30 cutoff.",134251.45040799998,{"id":605,"title":606,"slug":607,"category":8,"subcategory":32,"tags":608,"probability":609,"createdAt":610,"updatedAt":611,"resolutionDate":40,"description":612,"summary":613,"volume1wk":614,"featured":214},"230885","US x Cuba military clash in 2026?","us-x-cuba-military-clash-in-2026",[32,15,126],47,"2026-05-30T10:43:24.421Z","2026-06-16T10:03:23.405Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of the United States and Cuba between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA \"military encounter\" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between US and Cuban military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a \"Yes\" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a \"Yes\" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.\n\nNote: the United States Coast Guard is considered part of the United States military, and the Cuban Border Guard is considered part of the Cuban military.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.","US x Cuba military clash in 2026? is a geopolitics prediction market asking whether the United States and Cuba will have a direct military encounter before December 31, 2026. The market resolves to Yes only if there is an exchange of force between US and Cuban military forces, such as gunfire, missile strikes, artillery fire, or another form of direct military engagement; non-violent incidents do not qualify. The US Coast Guard counts as part of the US military, and the Cuban Border Guard counts as part of the Cuban military, which helps define the scope of the forecast.\n\nThis event matters because it tracks geopolitical risk in the Caribbean and broader US-Cuba relations, with traders pricing in the odds of an actual clash rather than routine tension. As of the latest data, the market-implied probability is about 50.5%, suggesting a roughly even split in market sentiment. The prediction market opened on February 26, 2026 and runs through the end of the year, with resolution based on a consensus of credible reporting. For event prediction and geopolitical forecast watchers, this listing reflects uncertainty around a high-impact but narrowly defined military outcome.",18789.77888799999,{"id":616,"title":617,"slug":618,"category":8,"subcategory":221,"tags":619,"probability":19,"createdAt":622,"updatedAt":623,"resolutionDate":55,"description":624,"summary":625,"volume1wk":626,"featured":214},"72352","Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by...?","will-russia-capture-all-of-kupiansk-by",[221,620,15,36,202,540,621,234,204,526],"Kupyansk","Russia Capture","2026-05-30T10:42:53.083Z","2026-06-16T10:03:16.608Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the entirety of Kupiansk by November 30, 2025, at 11:59 PM ET.\n\nKupiansk will be considered captured if the entirety of the municipality is shaded red on the ISW map (https:\u002F\u002Fstorymaps.arcgis.com\u002Fstories\u002F36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by November 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe territory of the municipality is shaded in light grey and is distinguished from bordering municipalities such as \"Moskovka\" with a darker grey line. If all area within the municipality is shaded in red, but the shading does not precisely match up with the border, such that there is a tiny amount of grey along the border of the city, this will still qualify for a \"Yes\" resolution.\n\nFor the purpose of this market, areas separated from the main municipality through a darker grey line, such as in the southeast of Kupiansk (https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com\u002Fh-b99a52275d.png), will not count towards the municipality.\n\nOnce Russia captures Kupiansk, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.\n\nKupiansk Location: https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com\u002FKupiansk+location.jpeg\nLocation on Google maps: https:\u002F\u002Fmaps.app.goo.gl\u002FngCjTi39GSjbzaC46 \n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https:\u002F\u002Fdeepstatemap.live\u002F) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.\n\nNote: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.\n\nIf Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.","Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by...? is a geopolitics prediction market focused on whether Russian forces will control the entire municipality of Kupiansk in Ukraine by November 30, 2025, at 11:59 PM ET. The market resolves using the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) map, with DeepStateMap or credible reporting used only if needed. In plain terms, traders are forecasting whether the full municipality will be shaded red on the reference map, indicating Russian capture, or remain outside Russian control by the deadline. Because the outcome depends on territorial control rather than an announcement alone, the event is closely tied to battlefield conditions, map updates, and reporting on the Russia-Ukraine war. It also allows for a Yes resolution if Russia gains control through a negotiated settlement. Current market probability is not available in the data, but the prediction market reflects ongoing market sentiment around military actions in Kupiansk, Russia, Ukraine, and the broader geopolitical forecast for the region. The event remains active through the resolution window, making it relevant for event prediction tracking and geopolitical odds analysis.",844316.1563289999,{"id":628,"title":629,"slug":630,"category":8,"subcategory":221,"tags":631,"probability":19,"createdAt":634,"updatedAt":635,"resolutionDate":55,"description":636,"summary":637,"volume1wk":638,"featured":214},"67201","Will Jia Yueting enter mainland China by...?","will-jia-yueting-enter-mainland-china-by",[221,36,632,633,268],"Business","Culture","2026-06-16T10:08:32.780Z","2026-06-16T10:03:07.210Z","If Jia Yueting enters mainland China by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Yes\". Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purpose of this market, \"entering mainland China\" is defined as Jia Yueting physically setting foot within the territory of the People’s Republic of China, excluding Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan.\n\nTravel through airspace or territorial waters during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.","\"Will Jia Yueting enter mainland China by...?\" is a geopolitics prediction market asking whether Jia Yueting will physically enter mainland China by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. For this event, \"entering mainland China\" means setting foot within the territory of the People’s Republic of China, excluding Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan. Airspace or passage through territorial waters does not count toward a yes resolution. The market’s outcome is therefore a simple forecast: Yes if credible reporting confirms Jia Yueting entered mainland China before the deadline, and No otherwise. As a World and Politics event with business and China-related tags, it sits at the intersection of public figure movement, geopolitics, and broader market sentiment. The current listed probability is 0, which suggests no price-based expectation for a positive outcome at the moment, though that can change as traders update odds and event prediction sentiment. The market remains active and is scheduled through June 30, 2026, with resolution based on a consensus of credible reporting.",10397.941800999999,{"id":640,"title":641,"slug":642,"category":8,"subcategory":15,"tags":643,"probability":649,"createdAt":650,"updatedAt":651,"resolutionDate":40,"description":652,"summary":653,"volume1wk":654,"featured":214},"435121","KRG declares independence from Iraq by December 31?","who-will-trump-talk-to",[15,644,645,646,647,36,648,13],"Kurds","Regional Spillover","Kurdistan","iraq","Kurdistan Regional Government",6,"2026-06-16T10:08:12.112Z","2026-06-16T10:03:05.121Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), or a ruling party, coalition, or executive official of the KRG, formally declares the creation of a new independent state separate from Iraq and asserts governing authority over a specified territory within Iraq by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA qualifying public announcement alone is sufficient for a \"Yes\" resolution, regardless of whether governing authority is actually established, maintained, or recognized.\n\nA declaration must include a clear public statement by the organization or its leadership announcing the establishment of an independent political entity separate from Iraq and claiming governmental authority over an identified geographic area previously under Iraqi governance.\n\nThe claimed territory does not need to be precisely defined but must be at least partially specified. A majority of the claimed territory must lie within the internationally recognized borders of Iraq as they existed at the time of this market’s creation.\n\nThe resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.","KRG declares independence from Iraq by December 31? is a geopolitics prediction market focused on whether the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), or one of its ruling parties, coalition partners, or executive officials, will formally announce the creation of a new independent state separate from Iraq by December 31, 2026. To resolve \"Yes,\" the market requires a clear public declaration that claims governing authority over a specified territory within Iraq; a credible announcement alone is enough, even if independence is not later recognized or enforced. The forecast centers on the political status of Kurdistan, Iraqi sovereignty, and potential regional spillover involving Kurds, Iraq, and Iran. The current market probability is about 6%, suggesting traders see a low chance of this event prediction occurring before the deadline. As a prediction market, it reflects current market sentiment and odds based on news flow, geopolitical developments, and the likelihood of a formal KRG statement before year-end.",41344.306587,{"id":656,"title":657,"slug":658,"category":8,"subcategory":15,"tags":659,"probability":19,"createdAt":661,"updatedAt":662,"resolutionDate":40,"description":663,"summary":664,"volume1wk":665,"featured":214},"143669","US military action against Cuba by...?","us-strike-on-cuba-by",[15,660,126],"Venezuela","2026-05-30T10:42:48.004Z","2026-06-16T10:02:58.653Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Cuba is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purposes of this market, a qualifying \"strike\" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.\n\nA strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.\n\nMissiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a \"Yes\" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage.\n\nActions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.\n\nAny strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.\n\nThis market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date\u002Ftime of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to \"No\" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.","US military action against Cuba by...? is a geopolitics prediction market asking whether a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on Cuban territory will be announced or credibly reported by the listed deadline. The forecast resolves to Yes only if a qualifying strike physically impacts the terrestrial territory of Cuba, including rivers, lakes, or ports, and excludes intercepted weapons, naval shelling, artillery, ground incursions, and cyberattacks. The market runs from January 4, 2026 through December 31, 2026 ET, with credible reporting as the primary resolution source. This event matters because it sits at the intersection of US-Cuba tensions, regional security, and broader Caribbean geopolitics, with possible relevance to Venezuela-related developments given the market tags. Current market probability is 0%, indicating traders assign no meaningful chance of a qualifying strike at present, though prediction market odds can change quickly as market sentiment shifts. As a geopolitical forecast, the listing captures whether any US military or intelligence operatives are reported to have conducted a strike on Cuban soil before the deadline.",347716.408973,{"id":667,"title":668,"slug":669,"category":8,"subcategory":15,"tags":670,"probability":671,"createdAt":672,"updatedAt":673,"resolutionDate":40,"description":674,"summary":675,"volume1wk":676,"featured":214},"474389","Which cities will Russia enter by December 31?","which-cities-will-russia-enter-by-december-31",[15,234,204],20.5,"2026-05-30T10:43:12.088Z","2026-06-16T10:02:54.522Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures any territory of [the specified city or settlement] () by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET.\n\nTerritory will be considered captured if any part of the city or settlement is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https:\u002F\u002Fstorymaps.arcgis.com\u002Fstories\u002F36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.\n\nFor any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either \"Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine\", “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. \n\nOnce a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.\n\nIf Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https:\u002F\u002Fdeepstatemap.live\u002F) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.\n\nNote: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.","\"Which cities will Russia enter by December 31?\" is a geopolitics prediction market that asks whether Russia will capture any territory of the specified city or settlement by December 31, 2026, based on the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) map. The event will resolve to Yes if the relevant area is shown as under Russian control, Russian advance, infiltration, or recent gains on the ISW Ukraine map and that shading persists through the next full daily update cycle. If Russia gains actual control through a negotiated settlement, that also qualifies, but a mere announcement of de jure control does not. The market uses ISW as the primary source, with DeepStateMap or credible reporting as backups if needed. This prediction market focuses on the expected outcome of Russia’s military movement and territorial control in Ukraine, making it relevant to traders tracking market sentiment on the war. As of the latest data, the market implies about a 25% probability of a Yes resolution. The forecast runs from its May 11, 2026 start date through the December 31, 2026 deadline.",10332.233387,{"id":678,"title":679,"slug":680,"category":8,"subcategory":13,"tags":681,"probability":682,"createdAt":683,"updatedAt":684,"resolutionDate":685,"description":686,"summary":687,"volume1wk":688,"featured":214},"571186","Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by...?","israel-x-lebanon-diplomatic-meeting-byptptpt-20260607225939974",[13,353,416,15,219,36,415],71,"2026-06-16T10:08:09.943Z","2026-06-16T10:02:46.863Z","2026-06-30T17:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of Israel and Lebanon by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nA diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding Israel-Lebanon relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. \n\nBrief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.\n\nThe meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.\n\nThe resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the Israel and Lebanon, and a consensus of credible reporting.","\"Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by...?\" is a geopolitics prediction market asking whether officials from Israel and Lebanon will hold a qualifying diplomatic meeting by the listed deadline, which is June 30, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. The market resolves to Yes only if representatives of both countries meet in person, directly or through authorized intermediaries, and the engagement is publicly acknowledged by either government or credibly reported. Casual encounters, phone calls, and other non-diplomatic contact do not count.\n\nThis event matters because even limited official contact between Israel and Lebanon can signal movement in regional diplomacy and broader Middle East tensions. Traders are currently assigning about a 71% probability to a Yes outcome, suggesting market sentiment leans toward a meeting occurring before the end date. As with any prediction market, that probability reflects the crowd forecast rather than a certainty.\n\nThe resolution will depend on official government statements and consensus media reporting, making this a closely watched event prediction for geopolitics traders tracking Israel, Lebanon, and Iran-related regional dynamics.",49431.92627500003,{"id":690,"title":691,"slug":692,"category":8,"subcategory":221,"tags":693,"probability":696,"createdAt":697,"updatedAt":698,"resolutionDate":55,"description":699,"summary":700,"volume1wk":701,"featured":214},"73212","Will North and South Korea engage in direct talks by June 30?","will-north-and-south-korea-engage-in-direct-talks-by-2027",[221,15,694,281,695,36],"North Korea","South Korea",4.4,"2026-06-16T10:08:13.596Z","2026-06-16T10:02:46.815Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if, North and South Korea engage in direct talks, defined as an official meeting or communication between government representatives of both sides, conducted without a third-party relaying messages, by June 30, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe talks may be in-person, by phone, or virtual, and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by credible media. \n\nRoutine military deconfliction, backchannel exchanges, or talks conducted entirely through another country or organization will not count. \n\nThe resolutions source will be a consensus of credible reporting.","\"Will North and South Korea engage in direct talks by June 30?\" is a geopolitics prediction market on whether the two governments will hold official direct contact before June 30, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. The event covers any in-person, phone, or virtual meeting or communication between North Korean and South Korean government representatives, as long as it is not routed through a third party. Routine military deconfliction, backchannel exchanges, or discussions conducted entirely via another country or organization do not qualify. Resolution will depend on credible reporting or public acknowledgment by either government. \n\nThis market matters because direct talks between North Korea and South Korea can signal shifts in regional diplomacy, foreign policy, and security conditions on the Korean Peninsula. Traders are currently assigning a low probability of about 4.4%, suggesting market sentiment expects no direct talks before the deadline. As a prediction market event, it reflects the forecast and odds around a specific diplomatic outcome rather than a statement of certainty.",36523.40091499999,{"id":703,"title":704,"slug":705,"category":8,"subcategory":204,"tags":706,"probability":19,"createdAt":707,"updatedAt":708,"resolutionDate":566,"description":709,"summary":710,"volume1wk":711,"featured":214},"25036","Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by...?","will-russia-capture-kostyantynivka-by",[204,36,221,15,621,234],"2026-05-30T10:42:50.012Z","2026-06-16T10:02:41.947Z","This is a market on the likelihood of Russia capturing Kostyantynivka by a specific date.","Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by...? is a geopolitics prediction market focused on whether Russian forces will take control of Kostyantynivka in Ukraine by the listed deadline. The event sits in the Ukraine subcategory and is relevant to broader market sentiment on the war, territorial changes, and the evolving frontline map. Traders in this forecast are effectively pricing the expected outcome of Russian advances against the possibility that the city remains under Ukrainian control through the end date. The market is active from May 22, 2025, and runs until December 31, 2025 at 12:00 UTC, giving participants a fixed timeframe for assessing developments. Current market probability is shown at 0%, though that figure should be read as the live market estimate rather than a certainty. As with other prediction market listings, the odds reflect how traders interpret military and geopolitical conditions, not a guarantee of what will happen. This event is useful for tracking geopolitical probability, event prediction trends, and real-time expectations around Ukraine and Russia.",496351.26546699996,{"id":713,"title":714,"slug":715,"category":8,"subcategory":13,"tags":716,"probability":717,"createdAt":718,"updatedAt":719,"resolutionDate":55,"description":720,"summary":721,"volume1wk":722,"featured":214},"147609","Iran coup attempt by June 30?","iran-coup-attempt-by-june-30",[13,219,221,32,91,15,11,222],1.55,"2026-05-30T10:42:56.419Z","2026-06-16T10:02:38.065Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nA coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.\n\nClaims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a \"Yes\" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.\n\nThe resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.","Iran coup attempt by June 30? is a geopolitics prediction market asking whether there will be a widely reported coup attempt in Iran before the June 30, 2026 deadline. The forecast resolves to Yes only if credible independent sources broadly report a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. General unrest, protests, or unverified claims of a foiled plot do not qualify unless the event is explicitly characterized as a coup attempt in consensus reporting. This makes the market a focused test of geopolitical risk around Iran, the Iranian regime, and broader Middle East stability, with possible implications for Israel, U.S. policy, and regional power dynamics. Traders are currently assigning about a 6.5% probability to the Yes outcome, indicating low but nonzero market expectations. As a prediction market event, it reflects sentiment on whether such a major political rupture will emerge during the active period running from January 6 to June 30, 2026.",206341.7682300001,{"id":724,"title":725,"slug":726,"category":8,"subcategory":417,"tags":727,"probability":19,"createdAt":728,"updatedAt":729,"resolutionDate":730,"description":731,"summary":732,"volume1wk":733,"featured":214},"531495","Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by...?","israeli-forces-enter-nabatieh-by",[417,416,91,15,219],"2026-06-16T10:08:24.380Z","2026-06-16T10:02:34.326Z","2026-06-07T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Israeli military personnel physically enter the municipality of Nabatieh in Lebanon for military purposes by the listed day 11:59 PM Israel Daylight Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purposes of this market, aerial and maritime operations will not be considered. Only operations involving troops on the ground within the municipality of Nabatieh will count.\n\nUndercover Israeli operatives and assets will not count.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be photo and video evidence; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.\n\nIf the date\u002Ftime of a qualifying entry cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting within 48 hours of this market's end date, it will resolve to \"No\" regardless of whether it was later confirmed to have taken place.","\"Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by...?\" is a geopolitics prediction market focused on whether Israeli military personnel physically enter the municipality of Nabatieh in Lebanon for military purposes by 11:59 PM Israel Daylight Time on June 7, 2026. The market resolves to Yes only if troops on the ground enter Nabatieh; aerial strikes, maritime activity, and undercover operatives do not count under the event rules. Resolution depends primarily on photo and video evidence, with consensus credible reporting also allowed within the market’s deadline window. This makes the event a narrow event prediction tied to a specific location in southern Lebanon and the broader Israel-Hezbollah conflict. Market sentiment currently implies a 0% probability, suggesting traders see the expected outcome as No, though prediction market odds can shift if new reporting emerges before the end date. Because the listing sits within the Hezbollah, Lebanon, Middle East, Israel, and geopolitics categories, it is relevant to users tracking regional military escalation, ground incursions, and short-term geopolitical forecasts.",17893.955747999997,{"id":735,"title":736,"slug":737,"category":8,"subcategory":738,"tags":739,"probability":741,"createdAt":742,"updatedAt":743,"resolutionDate":55,"description":744,"summary":745,"volume1wk":746,"featured":214},"573658","Will Netanyahu publicly insult Trump by June 30?","will-netanyahu-publicly-insult-trump-by-june-30","benjamin netanyahu",[738,740,15,13,32,219,36],"Bibi",4.6,"2026-06-16T10:08:25.067Z","2026-06-16T10:02:33.919Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Benjamin Netanyahu makes any public statement in which he insults, mocks, or attacks Donald Trump personally or professionally in a clearly negative manner between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\". \n\nThis includes calling the individual weak, stupid, disloyal, a failure, using an insulting nickname, using other derogatory language, or using the negative form of a positive trait in a derogatory personal way (e.g., “He\u002FShe isn’t smart”). Negative forms used in reference to the individual's professional actions, policies, or decisions (e.g., “He\u002FShe isn’t being smart about this policy”) will not count. Policy disagreements stated without disparaging language will not count.\n\nA direct reference will qualify even if the individual is not named, so long as it is reasonably clear from context that they are the subject.\n\nAny written, verbal, or recorded public statement by Benjamin Netanyahu qualifies.\n\nThe resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.","Will Netanyahu publicly insult Trump by June 30? is a geopolitics prediction market that asks whether Benjamin Netanyahu will make any public statement clearly insulting, mocking, or attacking Donald Trump before the June 30 deadline. The resolution depends on a written, verbal, or recorded public statement by Netanyahu that credibly fits the market’s definition of a personal or professional insult, rather than a routine policy disagreement or criticism of Trump’s actions. That distinction matters because the event prediction is narrowly drawn and will be judged against consensus credible reporting. For traders following this geopolitical forecast, the market is tracking the odds of a public rupture, however brief or symbolic, between the Israeli leader and the former U.S. president. As of the latest data, the market implies a probability of about 4.6%, suggesting sentiment leans strongly toward a No outcome. The event opened on June 8, 2026 and resolves at 12:00 a.m. ET on June 30, 2026, making the timing straightforward for anyone monitoring political developments, Israel-U.S. relations, and Donald Trump–Benjamin Netanyahu rhetoric in the final weeks of June.",16955.010275999997,{"id":748,"title":749,"slug":750,"category":8,"subcategory":49,"tags":751,"probability":753,"createdAt":754,"updatedAt":755,"resolutionDate":756,"description":757,"summary":758,"volume1wk":759,"featured":214},"542904","Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of June?","avg-of-ships-transiting-strait-of-hormuz-end-of-june",[49,13,65,15,16,752],"Rewards 20, 4.5, 50",39,"2026-06-16T10:08:13.512Z","2026-06-16T10:02:30.577Z","2026-06-30T16:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve according to the finalized 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for June 30, 2026.\n\nIf the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nTransit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on\u002Froll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.\n\nData for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).\n\nThis market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the specified date has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if the relevant data is not released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.\n\nIn case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.\n\nOnly revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https:\u002F\u002Fportwatch.imf.org\u002Fpages\u002Fcb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.","Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of June? is a geopolitics prediction market that asks traders to forecast the finalized 7-day moving average of ship transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz on June 30, 2026, using IMF Portwatch data. The event focuses on the average number of Arrivals of Ships reported for the strait, covering container, dry bulk, roll-on\u002Froll-off, general cargo, and tanker vessels. Because the Strait of Hormuz is a critical oil shipping route, the outcome is closely watched for signals about regional shipping conditions, Iran-related tensions, and broader energy-market risk. The market will resolve once the relevant IMF Portwatch figure is finalized, with special rules if data is delayed or revised. If the reported value falls between two brackets, resolution goes to the higher range. Current market probability is about 39%, indicating traders see a moderate chance of the expected outcome. The active forecast period runs through the end of June, making this an event prediction tied to maritime traffic, oil geopolitics, and market sentiment around one of the world’s most important chokepoints.",36700.57865,{"id":761,"title":762,"slug":763,"category":8,"subcategory":204,"tags":764,"probability":19,"createdAt":765,"updatedAt":766,"resolutionDate":55,"description":767,"summary":768,"volume1wk":769,"featured":214},"452146","Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by...?","will-russia-capture-all-of-rodynske-again-by",[204,234,15],"2026-06-16T10:08:30.563Z","2026-06-16T10:02:30.437Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the entirety of Rodynske, Donetsk Oblast, (48.351463° N, 37.207979° E) between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.\n\nRodynske will be considered captured if the entirety of the municipality is shaded red on the ISW map (https:\u002F\u002Fstorymaps.arcgis.com\u002Fstories\u002F36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”.\n\nFor any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.\n\nThe territory of the municipality is shaded in light grey and is distinguished from bordering municipalities with a darker grey line. If all area within the municipality is shaded in red, however, the shading does not precisely match up with the border such that there is a tiny amount of grey along the border of the city, this will still qualify for a \"Yes\" resolution.\n\nOnce Russia captures the entirety of Rodynske, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.\n\nLocation on Google maps: https:\u002F\u002Fmaps.app.goo.gl\u002FinyaBPNNyVocH72e8\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https:\u002F\u002Fdeepstatemap.live\u002F) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.\n\nNote: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.\n\nIf Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.","Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by...? is a geopolitics prediction market focused on whether Russian forces will regain full control of Rodynske in Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The event resolves “Yes” only if the entire municipality is shown as Russian-controlled on the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) map, with qualifying shading that persists through the next full daily update cycle. If ISW data is unavailable, DeepStateMap or credible reporting may be used. Rodynske is being tracked as part of the broader Russia-Ukraine war, making this a closely watched event prediction for traders following developments on the Ukraine map. The market is asking not whether the town changes hands temporarily, but whether Russia establishes confirmed control by the deadline. Current market probability is 0%, which suggests traders see the expected outcome as unresolved or not yet priced in rather than assured. Because the market remains active through the end-of-June cutoff, sentiment may change as battlefield reporting and map updates evolve.",12132.228296000005,{"id":771,"title":772,"slug":773,"category":8,"subcategory":752,"tags":774,"probability":775,"createdAt":776,"updatedAt":777,"resolutionDate":40,"description":778,"summary":779,"volume1wk":780,"featured":214},"528389","Where will Trump and Putin meet next in 2026?","where-will-trump-and-putin-meet-next-678",[752,15,36,221,389,202,32,526,204],1.1,"2026-05-30T10:43:21.409Z","2026-06-16T10:02:30.339Z","This market will resolve according to the location of the next meeting between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.\n\nThis market will resolve to \"No meeting by December 31\" if no qualifying meeting occurs during this market's timeframe.\n\nA meeting is defined as any encounter where Putin and Trump are all present and interact with each other in person.\n\nAn exchange of words, handshake, direct conversation, or other clear personal interaction between the named individuals will qualify as a meeting. Merely standing in proximity, making eye contact, or being present in the same room or event without direct interaction will not qualify.\n\nFor this market, Gulf states are defined as the six members of the Gulf Cooperation Council (Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates).\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.","Where will Trump and Putin meet next in 2026? is a geopolitics prediction market asking traders to forecast the location of the next in-person meeting between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin before December 31, 2026. The market resolves based on credible reporting and counts only direct personal interaction, such as a handshake, conversation, or other clear encounter; simply appearing in the same venue does not qualify. If no qualifying meeting occurs by the deadline, the outcome is \"No meeting by December 31.\" The forecast matters because any Trump-Putin meeting would carry major implications for U.S.-Russia relations, the war in Ukraine, and broader global diplomacy. The market also distinguishes possible locations, including Gulf states as defined by the six Gulf Cooperation Council members: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates. Current market probability is about 75%, suggesting traders see a meaningful chance of a qualifying meeting within the timeframe. As an event prediction in the geopolitics and politics category, it reflects market sentiment on whether and where the two leaders will next meet in person.",21197.076761,{"id":782,"title":783,"slug":784,"category":8,"subcategory":91,"tags":785,"probability":19,"createdAt":786,"updatedAt":787,"resolutionDate":788,"description":789,"summary":790,"volume1wk":791,"featured":214},"257462","Mojtaba Khamenei public appearance by...?","mojtaba-khamenei-public-appearance-by",[91,219,13,15],"2026-05-30T10:42:57.625Z","2026-06-16T10:02:30.084Z","2026-04-30T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, is photographed or videotaped between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor this market to resolve to \"Yes,\" the images or video must be taken and released within this market's timeframe. The images or video must be authentic. Archival material, previously recorded footage, reused images, digitally altered content, AI-generated media, staged reproductions, or any posthumous releases will not qualify.\n\nDigital appearances, including live broadcasts, will count for this market.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the image\u002Fvideo of Mojtaba Khamenei, and a consensus of credible reporting as to whether it is real.","Mojtaba Khamenei public appearance by...? is a geopolitics prediction market focused on whether Iran’s Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, will be publicly photographed or videotaped within the market’s timeframe. The forecast is straightforward: traders are betting on whether authentic image or video evidence of a real public appearance will emerge between market creation and the listed end date of April 30, 2026 ET. The market specifically counts newly captured and released photos or footage, including live broadcasts, while excluding archival material, reused images, digitally altered content, AI-generated media, staged reproductions, or posthumous releases.\n\nAs a Middle East event prediction, it sits at the intersection of Iran politics, regional geopolitics, and media verification. Market sentiment is measured through prediction market pricing, and the current probability stands at 0%, indicating that traders currently see a public appearance as unlikely, though that view can change as new reporting emerges. Resolution will depend on credible reporting and the authenticity of any visual evidence, making source verification central to the expected outcome.",118278.90729999998,{"id":793,"title":794,"slug":795,"category":8,"subcategory":796,"tags":797,"probability":800,"createdAt":801,"updatedAt":802,"resolutionDate":55,"description":803,"summary":804,"volume1wk":805,"featured":214},"528306","Will USD hit ___ Iranian rials by June 30?","will-usd-hit-iranian-rials-by-june-30","USD",[796,13,91,67,798,799],"bank","Exchange Rate",8,"2026-06-16T10:08:04.883Z","2026-06-16T10:02:28.052Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if the finalized USD exchange rate on Bonbast is equal to or beyond (above for ↑ High Prices, below for ↓ Low Prices) the specified price for any day between market creation and June 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the daily finalized free-market USD exchange rate as displayed on Bonbast (https:\u002F\u002Fwww.bonbast.com\u002Fgraph\u002Fusd), which publishes prices in Iranian toman, where 1 Iranian toman equals 10 Iranian rials (IRR).\n\nA daily figure will be considered finalized once the following day’s figure is released.\n\nRevisions or corrections to daily figures indicating a qualifying exchange rate will be considered only if they occur before all relevant figures for this market have been finalized.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be Bonbast (https:\u002F\u002Fwww.bonbast.com\u002Fgraph\u002Fusd). Resolution will occur once the final exchange rate data point of the specified timeframe is finalized. If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.","Will USD hit ___ Iranian rials by June 30? is a geopolitical prediction market centered on the daily free-market USD exchange rate in Iran, as published on Bonbast. Traders are forecasting whether the rate will reach or move beyond the specified rial threshold at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, with the market resolving based on the finalized Bonbast figure for each day. Because the source publishes prices in Iranian toman, the event uses the equivalent rial value for resolution, and a daily figure only counts once the following day’s data is released.\n\nThis event matters because the USD\u002FIRR exchange rate is a closely watched signal for Iran’s economy, currency stability, and broader Middle East market sentiment. It also serves as a real-time forecast of foreign exchange pressure under changing geopolitical and economic conditions. As of the latest update, the market implies about an 8% probability of the threshold being reached, suggesting traders currently see the outcome as unlikely rather than expected.",88087.30872300001,{"id":807,"title":808,"slug":809,"category":8,"subcategory":36,"tags":810,"probability":19,"createdAt":813,"updatedAt":814,"resolutionDate":815,"description":816,"summary":817,"volume1wk":818,"featured":214},"57088","Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by...?","israel-x-hamas-ceasefire-phase-ii-by-october-31",[36,811,15,219,91,221,32,389,812],"Gaza","Trump-Netanyahu","2026-05-30T10:42:49.105Z","2026-06-16T10:02:27.344Z","2025-12-31T00:00:00.000Z","On October 8, an agreement on an initial ceasefire (Phase 1) was announced, constituting a halt in fighting, a partial Israeli pullback to a “yellow line,” prisoner swaps, expanded aid, and the release of hostages. A second phase of the deal, yet to be negotiated, is expected to address further Israeli withdrawal, Hamas’s disarmament, and the establishment of new security and governance arrangements in Gaza.\n\nThis market will resolve to \"Yes\" if an official agreement for the second phase of the Israel–Hamas ceasefire, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between Israel and Hamas by October 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nIf the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to \"Yes,\" regardless of if\u002Fwhen the agreement goes into effect.\n\nFor purposes of this market, a “second phase” ceasefire agreement refers to a deal publicly acknowledged by both Israel and Hamas (directly or via recognized mediators such as the U.S., Egypt, or Qatar) that goes beyond the Phase 1 initial truce and includes commitments towards a comprehensive or “full” ceasefire.  Any agreement that is publicly described by the parties, or by mediators on their behalf, as the completion of “Phase 2” of the ceasefire will qualify, regardless of whether it includes further Israeli withdrawals beyond the “yellow line,” or agreements by Hamas to disarm.\n\nAn extension or continuation of the Phase 1 arrangement alone will not qualify.\n\nThis market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Israel and Hamas, however a wide consensus of credible media reporting will also qualify.","Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by...? is a geopolitics prediction market asking whether Israel and Hamas will reach an official agreement on the second phase of their ceasefire by October 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. The forecast focuses on whether the initial Phase 1 truce announced on October 8 will be followed by a publicly acknowledged Phase 2 deal, not merely an extension of the existing arrangement. According to the market rules, a qualifying outcome would need to be announced by both sides, either directly or through recognized mediators such as the U.S., Egypt, or Qatar.\n\nThe expected outcome matters because Phase 2 would address unresolved issues including further Israeli withdrawal, Hamas’s disarmament, and broader security and governance arrangements in Gaza. That makes this market relevant to traders tracking Israel, Gaza, the Middle East, Trump, and Trump-Netanyahu diplomacy. As a prediction market event, it reflects current market sentiment on the likelihood of a negotiated follow-on agreement rather than a renewed or prolonged pause in fighting. No probability is available here, so the odds are not quantified in the listing.",485017.42469100014,{"id":820,"title":821,"slug":822,"category":8,"subcategory":32,"tags":823,"probability":824,"createdAt":825,"updatedAt":826,"resolutionDate":40,"description":827,"summary":828,"volume1wk":829,"featured":214},"106938","Trump, Putin, and Zelensky seen together before 2027?","trump-putin-and-zelensky-seen-together-before-2027",[32,390,221,204,526,36,15],8.5,"2026-06-16T10:08:12.562Z","2026-06-16T10:02:26.822Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Donald Trump, Vladimir Putin, and Volodymyr Zelensky are photographed or videotaped together, in the same frame, between this market's creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor this market to resolve to \"Yes,\" the images or video must be taken and released within this market's timeframe. The images or video must be authentic, not the result of artificial intelligence or video editing.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the images or video of Donald Trump, Vladimir Putin, and Volodymyr Zelensky together.","Trump, Putin, and Zelensky seen together before 2027? is a geopolitics prediction market asking whether Donald Trump, Vladimir Putin, and Volodymyr Zelensky will be photographed or videotaped together in the same frame before December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. The event resolves to Yes only if authentic images or video showing all three leaders together are released within the market’s timeframe; AI-generated or edited media does not count. As a geopolitical forecast, the market reflects trader sentiment around the possibility of a high-profile meeting or shared appearance involving the leaders of the United States, Russia, and Ukraine. Current market probability is about 8.5%, suggesting traders see the expected outcome as unlikely but not impossible. The prediction market will remain open through the end of 2026, making timing and any future diplomatic developments central to event prediction and odds. Because the outcome depends on verifiable public evidence, this is a binary resolution event tied directly to real-world media coverage and international politics.",40058.37715000001,{"id":831,"title":832,"slug":833,"category":8,"subcategory":15,"tags":834,"probability":19,"createdAt":835,"updatedAt":836,"resolutionDate":837,"description":838,"summary":839,"volume1wk":840,"featured":214},"89461","Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by...?","naim-qassem-out-as-hezbollahs-secretary-general-by-december-31",[15,219,36,91,416,221],"2026-05-30T10:43:05.025Z","2026-06-16T10:02:26.522Z","2026-03-31T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Naim Qassem ceases to be Hezbollah’s secretary-general for any length of time by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nNaim Qassem will be considered to be removed from power if he resigns, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from fulfilling his duties as Hezbollah’s secretary-general within this market's timeframe.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Hezbollah; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.","Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by...? is a geopolitics prediction market that asks whether Naim Qassem will cease to be Hezbollah’s secretary-general by the specified deadline, 11:59 PM ET. The forecast is straightforward: traders are pricing the probability that Qassem resigns, is detained, is removed, or otherwise loses the ability to serve in that role within the market’s timeframe. The event sits at the intersection of Middle East politics, Lebanon, and Israel-related regional developments, making it a closely watched geopolitical forecast. Official Hezbollah statements are the primary resolution source, with credible reporting also used to determine the outcome. As of the latest data, the market probability is 0%, suggesting no yes-side expectation at present, though prediction market odds can change as news develops. The market opens on 2025-11-24 and runs through 2026-03-31, giving participants a defined window to assess shifting market sentiment around Hezbollah leadership and regional stability.",33863.30103700001,{"id":842,"title":843,"slug":844,"category":8,"subcategory":389,"tags":845,"probability":19,"createdAt":847,"updatedAt":848,"resolutionDate":394,"description":849,"summary":850,"volume1wk":851,"featured":214},"25410","US x Russia military clash by...?","us-x-russia-military-clash-by",[389,32,15,221,540,846],"US-Iran","2026-05-30T10:43:03.998Z","2026-06-16T10:02:25.921Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of the United States and Russia between May 28 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA \"military encounter\" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between U.S. and Russian military forces. Non-violent actions, such as airspace violations, firing of warning shots (such as the June, 2021 Black Sea Confrontations between Russian forces and HMS Defender), or cyberattacks will not qualify. \n\nIntentional physical collisions, including aerial interceptions and naval ramming without the direct use of weaponry, such as the 2023 Black Sea incident—where a Russian Su-27 damaged a U.S. MQ-9 Reaper drone's propeller, leading to its crash— will not qualify regardless of damage. \n\nMilitary contractors will qualify only if confirmed to be operating under the direct command or coordination of the respective state’s armed forces (e.g. the Battle of Khasham would not qualify).\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.\n","US x Russia military clash by...? is a geopolitics prediction market asking whether there will be a direct military encounter between U.S. and Russian forces before the market deadline. The event covers the period from May 28, 2025, through December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, and resolves to Yes only if credible reporting confirms an incident involving force, such as missile strikes, artillery fire, or direct exchange of gunfire. Non-violent confrontations, warning shots, airspace violations, cyberattacks, and intentional collisions without weapon use do not qualify. Military contractors count only if acting under direct command or coordination of state armed forces. Current market probability is 0%, suggesting traders see a clash as unlikely at this stage, though prediction market odds can shift as geopolitical conditions change. As an event prediction tied to Trump Presidency-era geopolitics and broader military actions, it reflects market sentiment on one of the most consequential U.S.-Russia escalation risks.",890256.1996669997,{"id":853,"title":854,"slug":855,"category":8,"subcategory":67,"tags":856,"probability":860,"createdAt":861,"updatedAt":862,"resolutionDate":863,"description":864,"summary":865,"volume1wk":866,"featured":214},"287380","Bank of Russia decision in June?","bank-of-russia-decision-in-june",[67,857,858,859,221,526],"Global Rates","BOR","Economic Policy",94,"2026-06-16T10:08:19.915Z","2026-06-16T10:02:24.994Z","2026-06-19T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve according to the change in the key rate resulting from the Bank of Russia’s June meeting, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Russia after its June 19, 2026 meeting as listed on the official Bank of Russia calendar: https:\u002F\u002Fwww.cbr.ru\u002Feng\u002Fdkp\u002Fcal_mp\u002F#t13\n\nThis market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Russia’s press release for their June 19, 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the key rate is issued by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the \"No change\" bracket.","Bank of Russia decision in June? is a geopolitics and economy prediction market focused on the Bank of Russia’s key rate decision after its June 19, 2026 meeting. Traders are forecasting the expected outcome of the central bank’s June policy announcement, with the market resolving based on whether the key rate changes from its level before the meeting. If no decision is issued by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, the market is set to resolve to the “No change” bracket. \n\nThe event matters because the Bank of Russia’s monetary policy affects inflation expectations, borrowing costs, and broader economic policy in Russia. As of the latest market data, probability is concentrated heavily around an outcome consistent with no immediate move, with the market showing about 94% for the current leading resolution path. That figure reflects current market sentiment rather than a certainty. \n\nThis prediction market is timed around the official Bank of Russia calendar and may resolve as soon as the June 19 press release is published.",23077.830289999994,{"id":868,"title":869,"slug":870,"category":8,"subcategory":36,"tags":871,"probability":19,"createdAt":872,"updatedAt":873,"resolutionDate":578,"description":874,"summary":875,"volume1wk":876,"featured":214},"87089","Will Russia enter Orikhiv by...?","will-russia-enter-orikhiv-by-december-31",[36,204,234,15],"2026-05-30T10:43:11.180Z","2026-06-16T10:02:24.698Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures any territory of Orikhiv by December 31, 2025, at 11:59 PM ET.\n\nTerritory will be considered captured if any part of Orikhiv is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https:\u002F\u002Fstorymaps.arcgis.com\u002Fstories\u002F36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.\n\nFor any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either \"Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine\", “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. \n\nOnce a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.\n\nIf Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https:\u002F\u002Fdeepstatemap.live\u002F) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.\n\nNote: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.","Will Russia enter Orikhiv by...? is a geopolitics prediction market focused on whether Russian forces will capture any territory of Orikhiv by December 31, 2025, based primarily on the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) Ukraine map. The market resolves to Yes if any part of Orikhiv is shaded as Russian-controlled, Russian-advanced, or under related qualifying ISW categories by the deadline, with the relevant control persisting through the next full update cycle. If a negotiated settlement results in Russia actually taking control of the territory, that also counts for a Yes outcome. Otherwise, the market resolves No.\n\nThis event matters because Orikhiv is part of the broader Ukraine war map and remains relevant to assessments of Russian military advances, territorial control, and shifting front lines. Prediction market traders are effectively forecasting the expected outcome of Russian territorial gains in this area before year-end. Current market probability is 0%, indicating no active priced-in chance at the moment, though market sentiment can change as battlefield conditions evolve. The event is active and remains open until resolution, making it a useful reference point for geopolitical forecasts, Ukraine map tracking, and event prediction analysis.",19656.126489000002,{"id":878,"title":879,"slug":880,"category":8,"subcategory":219,"tags":881,"probability":463,"createdAt":884,"updatedAt":885,"resolutionDate":55,"description":886,"summary":887,"volume1wk":888,"featured":214},"86318","Which countries will recognize Israel by June 30?","which-countries-will-recognize-israel-by-june-30",[219,15,91,882,883,36],"Syria","Yemen","2026-05-30T10:43:10.494Z","2026-06-16T10:02:22.720Z","This market will resolve based on the countries that officially recognize Israel as a state between November 20, 2025 and June 30, 2026, 11:59pm ET.\n\nAn announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to \"Yes.\" Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Israel will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.\n","\"Which countries will recognize Israel by June 30?\" is a geopolitics prediction market asking traders to forecast which governments will formally recognize Israel as a state between November 20, 2025 and June 30, 2026, 11:59pm ET. The outcome is based only on official government recognition; an announcement of intent will not count. If government sources are unclear, the market may also use a consensus of credible reporting. This makes the event a focused test of diplomatic developments involving Israel, the Middle East, and countries such as Syria and Yemen that are relevant to the broader regional context. The market is designed to capture event prediction and market sentiment around formal recognition, rather than broader political statements. Current market probability is shown at about 1.05%, suggesting traders see recognition by additional countries as a low-probability outcome, though odds can change as new diplomatic signals emerge. The forecast will resolve at the end of the listed window, making timing central to the event’s resolution and to how prediction market participants assess the expected outcome.",16911.609325,{"id":890,"title":891,"slug":892,"category":8,"subcategory":204,"tags":893,"probability":19,"createdAt":895,"updatedAt":896,"resolutionDate":897,"description":898,"summary":899,"volume1wk":900,"featured":214},"33647","Will Russia capture Lyman by...?","will-russia-capture-lyman-in-2025",[204,15,894,36,221,621,234],"world affairs","2026-05-30T10:42:57.317Z","2026-06-16T10:02:21.849Z","2026-12-31T23:55:00.000Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the Lyman railroad station located on Vulytsya Pryvokzalʹna by December 31, 2025, at 11:59 PM ET.\n\nThe railroad station will be considered captured if any part of the train station icon is shaded red on the ISW map (https:\u002F\u002Fstorymaps.arcgis.com\u002Fstories\u002F36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”.\n\nIf Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.\n\nOnce Russia captures the railroad station, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.\n\nTrain Station Location: https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com\u002Flyman+train+station+zoom.png\n\nTrain Station Location in Lyman: https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com\u002Flyman+train+station.jpeg\n\nLyman Location: https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com\u002Flyman.jpeg\n\nLocation on Google maps: https:\u002F\u002Fmaps.app.goo.gl\u002FzeVSXaeDH93mF2WPA\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https:\u002F\u002Fdeepstatemap.live\u002F) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.\n\nNote: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.","Will Russia capture Lyman by...? is a geopolitics prediction market focused on whether Russian forces will take control of the Lyman railroad station in Ukraine by the resolution deadline. The market resolves to “Yes” if, according to the ISW Ukraine map, any part of the train station icon on Vulytsya Pryvokzalʹna is shaded red by December 31, 2025, at 11:59 PM ET, or if Russia gains actual control through a negotiated settlement. The forecast is based on the ISW map, with DeepStateMap or credible reporting used only if needed. As a Ukraine and world affairs event prediction, it tracks an ongoing battlefield question with direct implications for the Lyman area in Donetsk region. Market sentiment currently implies a 0% probability, though traders can still reassess as conditions change before the deadline. For prediction market participants, this event centers on a specific territorial control outcome rather than broader political signals, making the expected outcome dependent on verifiable on-the-ground control and map-based confirmation.",121251.17018399999,{"id":902,"title":903,"slug":904,"category":8,"subcategory":204,"tags":905,"probability":441,"createdAt":906,"updatedAt":907,"resolutionDate":40,"description":908,"summary":909,"volume1wk":910,"featured":214},"48978","Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by...?","will-ukraine-recapture-crimean-territory-by-june-30-2026",[204,526,15,36,221,234],"2026-06-16T10:07:58.306Z","2026-06-16T10:02:14.415Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Ukraine captures any territory in Crimea by June 30, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET.\n\nTerritory will will be considered captured if any part of Crimea shaded blue on the ISW map (https:\u002F\u002Fstorymaps.arcgis.com\u002Fstories\u002F36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe border around Crimea shaded in black on the ISW map will not qualify. \n\nOnce Ukraine captures territory in Crimea, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.\n\nIf Ukraine comes into control of territory in Crimea as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded blue in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https:\u002F\u002Fdeepstatemap.live\u002F) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.\n\nNote: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.\n","Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by...? is a geopolitics prediction market that asks whether Ukraine will capture any territory in Crimea by June 30, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. The event resolves to Yes if the ISW Ukraine map shows any part of Crimea shaded blue by the deadline, or if Ukraine gains actual control of Crimean territory through a negotiated settlement. A black border on the map does not count, and temporary mapping glitches are excluded from resolution.\n\nThis forecast matters because Crimea remains a central issue in the Russia-Ukraine war and a major test of battlefield control, diplomacy, and territorial change. Traders are pricing the market at about 55% probability, suggesting a slightly favorable but still uncertain expected outcome for a Ukrainian recapture before the cutoff. Market sentiment reflects ongoing uncertainty around military developments, territorial control, and any potential settlement terms.\n\nThe prediction market uses the ISW map as the primary resolution source, with DeepStateMap or credible reporting as backups if needed. As of the current timeframe, the June 30, 2026 deadline is the key date to watch for event prediction and resolution.",289861.946301,{"id":912,"title":913,"slug":914,"category":8,"subcategory":219,"tags":915,"probability":916,"createdAt":917,"updatedAt":918,"resolutionDate":55,"description":919,"summary":920,"volume1wk":921,"featured":214},"330209","Will any country join the Board of Peace by June 30?","will-any-country-join-the-board-of-peace-by-june-30-128",[219,32,15,91,811,36],5.9,"2026-06-16T10:08:13.295Z","2026-06-16T10:02:13.777Z","Donald Trump and the United States sent invitations to countries around the world, inviting them to join the US-led Board of Peace which will oversee conflict resolution in Gaza and elsewhere (see: https:\u002F\u002Fwww.reuters.com\u002Fworld\u002Fmiddle-east\u002Fus-names-rubio-blair-kushner-gaza-board-under-trumps-plan-2026-01-17\u002F).\n\nThis market will resolve to “Yes” if any new country joins the Board of Peace between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nA country will be considered to have joined the Board of Peace if either of the following conditions are met:\n\n- That country's government publicly and definitively announces that the country will join the Board of Peace as a founding member, permanent member, or as any other type of member state.\n\n- Official information from the country’s government or a consensus of credible reporting demonstrates that the listed country has formally joined the Board of Peace (e.g. an authorized representative has signed the charter of the Board of Peace).\n\nOnly statements or announcements which are definitive in their expression of intent to join the Board of Peace will qualify (e.g. “we agree to join the board of peace,” “we accepted an invitation to the board of peace,” etc.). Statements which are not definitive in their expression of intent to join (e.g. “we agree in principle”, “we will join pending further details”, “we are ready to do our part in working for the reconstruction of Gaza” etc.) will not count. \n\nQualifying announcements within this market’s timeframe will count regardless of when the relevant country intends to join the board of peace, or whether or not they ultimately join.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the listed country; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.","Will any country join the Board of Peace by June 30? is a geopolitics prediction market centered on whether the US-led Board of Peace will gain at least one additional country member before the deadline. The board, associated with Donald Trump and the United States, is intended to oversee conflict resolution in Gaza and potentially other disputes in the Middle East. Traders are forecasting the likelihood that a foreign government will make a definitive public announcement or provide official confirmation that it has formally joined the board, such as signing its charter or declaring membership in clear terms. The market does not count vague expressions of support or conditional intent, only unequivocal commitments within the June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET cutoff. Current market probability is around 5.9%, suggesting traders see the expected outcome as unlikely at present. As a prediction market tied to Israel, Gaza, Trump, and broader Middle East politics, the event reflects market sentiment on diplomatic alignment, US-led peace efforts, and the prospects for international participation in the board before the resolution deadline.",37308.470594,{"id":923,"title":924,"slug":925,"category":8,"subcategory":91,"tags":926,"probability":929,"createdAt":930,"updatedAt":931,"resolutionDate":55,"description":932,"summary":933,"volume1wk":934,"featured":214},"146944","Israel military action against Yemen by...?","israel-strike-on-yemen-by-593",[91,221,883,219,15,503,645,927,928],"strike","Houthis",9,"2026-05-30T10:43:12.934Z","2026-06-16T10:02:13.511Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Yemeni soil or any official Yemen embassy or consulate by the listed date, 11:59 PM Israeli local time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purposes of this market, a qualifying \"strike\" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Yemen ground territory or any official Yemen embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Yemen soil is hit by an Israeli missile, this market will resolve to \"Yes\").\n\nMissiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a \"Yes\" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Yemen territory or cause damage.\n\nActions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.\n\nThe resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.","Israel military action against Yemen by...? is a geopolitics prediction market asking whether Israel will initiate a qualifying drone, missile, or air strike on Yemeni soil, or on any official Yemen embassy or consulate, by the listed deadline of 11:59 PM Israeli local time on June 30, 2026. The event focuses on whether an Israeli military strike occurs under the market’s strict definition, which requires a successful aerial attack launched by Israeli forces and excludes intercepted missiles or drones, artillery, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, and other non-qualifying operations. Because the resolution will depend on credible reporting, traders are watching for confirmed evidence of escalation involving Israel, Yemen, and the Houthis, as well as broader regional spillover in the Middle East. Current market probability is about 11.5%, suggesting traders see the expected outcome as relatively unlikely, though not impossible. For prediction market participants, this event is a clear geopolitical forecast tied to conflict risk, military strikes, and Middle East security developments.",190250.99222700007,{"id":936,"title":937,"slug":938,"category":8,"subcategory":221,"tags":939,"probability":941,"createdAt":942,"updatedAt":943,"resolutionDate":40,"description":944,"summary":945,"volume1wk":946,"featured":214},"129474","EU\u002FNATO country announces peacekeeping force in Ukraine by...?","eunato-country-announces-peacekeeping-force-in-ukraine-before-2027",[221,32,36,207,940,204,202,283,15,206],"eu",16,"2026-06-16T10:08:32.518Z","2026-06-16T10:02:13.304Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if any NATO or EU member country officially announces that they will be sending troops to Ukraine as part of a peacekeeping force by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nA qualifying announcement must be part of a formal agreement between a NATO or EU member country and another country or international organization or otherwise indicative of a formalized policy.\n\nAnnouncements which are statements of intent, contingent, or otherwise are not indicative of a formalized policy will not count\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from NATO, the EU, or member states of either entity, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.","EU\u002FNATO country announces peacekeeping force in Ukraine by...? is a geopolitics prediction market focused on whether any NATO or EU member state will officially announce that it is sending troops to Ukraine as part of a peacekeeping force by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The event resolves to Yes only if the announcement is part of a formal agreement or clear formalized policy, not a tentative statement of intent. Credible reporting may be used, but the primary resolution source is official information from NATO, the EU, or member governments. This forecast matters because it sits at the intersection of Ukraine, the broader Russia-Ukraine war, and European security policy, with potential implications for diplomacy, military planning, and any emerging Ukraine peace deal. Current market probability is about 16%, suggesting traders currently see the expected outcome as relatively unlikely, though not impossible. As a prediction market, it reflects market sentiment around whether EU or NATO governments will move from discussion to an official peacekeeping commitment before the deadline.",10641.412351,{"id":948,"title":949,"slug":950,"category":8,"subcategory":204,"tags":951,"probability":19,"createdAt":952,"updatedAt":953,"resolutionDate":169,"description":954,"summary":955,"volume1wk":956,"featured":214},"73058","Will Russia capture all of Vovchansk by...?","will-russia-capture-all-of-vovchansk-by",[204,15,234,36,202,526,540,621],"2026-05-30T10:42:54.917Z","2026-06-16T10:02:12.919Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the entirety of Vovchansk by November 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.\n\nVovchansk will be considered captured if the entirety of the municipality is shaded red on the ISW map (https:\u002F\u002Fstorymaps.arcgis.com\u002Fstories\u002F36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by November 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”.\n\nIf the territory of municipality is shaded light grey, and is distinguished from bordering municipalities such as \"Vovchanski Khutory\" with a darker grey line. If all area within the municipality is shaded in red, however, the shading does not precisely match up with the border such that there is a tiny amount of grey along the border of the city, this will still qualify for a \"Yes\" resolution.\n\nOnce Russia captures Vovchansk, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.\n\nVovchansk Location: https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com\u002FVovchansk.png \nLocation on Google Maps: https:\u002F\u002Fmaps.app.goo.gl\u002FpEumzu6kdCPQ2sYt7\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https:\u002F\u002Fdeepstatemap.live\u002F) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap is rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.\n\nNote: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.\n\nIf Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.\n","Will Russia capture all of Vovchansk by...? is a geopolitics prediction market focused on whether Russian forces will gain control of the entire municipality of Vovchansk in Ukraine by the resolution deadline. The market resolves “Yes” if the ISW Ukraine map shows the full municipality shaded red by November 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, with DeepStateMap or credible reporting used only if the primary source is unavailable. It also allows a “Yes” if Russia secures actual control through a negotiated settlement, provided control is established rather than merely announced. Vovchansk is located in Ukraine’s Kharkiv region, making it a closely watched site in the broader Russia-Ukraine war and military actions category. For traders following geopolitical forecast markets, the event centers on territorial control, map-based verification, and the likelihood that Russia can capture and hold the area before the deadline. Current market probability is 0, suggesting no active pricing signal is available at the moment. As with other event prediction contracts, odds and market sentiment may change as battlefield conditions, reporting, and map updates evolve.",127929.20207599997,{"id":958,"title":959,"slug":960,"category":8,"subcategory":390,"tags":961,"probability":19,"createdAt":962,"updatedAt":963,"resolutionDate":55,"description":964,"summary":965,"volume1wk":966,"featured":214},"37568","U.S. x Russia Nuclear deal by...?","us-x-russia-nuclear-deal-by-december-31",[390,281,204,389,36,32],"2026-05-30T10:43:00.255Z","2026-06-16T10:02:10.605Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if an official agreement on nuclear arms control or strategic nuclear weapons limitation is reached between the United States and the Russian Federation between August 14, 2025 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nOnly agreements that are publicly announced and acknowledged by both the U.S. and Russia will qualify. The agreement must pertain to nuclear arms control or limitation—such as a treaty, framework, or memorandum—addressing matters including (but not limited to) nuclear warheads, delivery systems, verification mechanisms, or strategic stability.\n\nAn extension, amendment, or replacement of the New START treaty will qualify, provided it is publicly announced as a concluded agreement by both parties within the time frame. Exploratory discussions or stated intent to extend without a finalized agreement will not qualify.\n\nAgreements that include both the United States and Russia as named parties—whether bilateral or as part of a broader multilateral framework—will qualify, provided the agreement directly addresses nuclear arms control.\n\nThe agreement does not need to be ratified or implemented for this market to resolve \"Yes\"; a formal announcement of a concluded agreement is sufficient.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the U.S. government (e.g., the White House, State Department) and\u002For the Russian Federation (e.g., the Kremlin, Ministry of Foreign Affairs). However, a clear and overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such an agreement has been reached will also qualify.","U.S. x Russia Nuclear deal by...? is a geopolitics prediction market focused on whether the United States and the Russian Federation will reach an official agreement on nuclear arms control or strategic nuclear weapons limitation between August 14, 2025 and December 31, 2025. The forecast covers a publicly announced deal that both sides acknowledge, such as a treaty, framework, memorandum, or an extension, amendment, or replacement of New START. Exploratory talks or statements of intent without a finalized agreement do not qualify.\n\nThis event matters because any new U.S.-Russia nuclear accord would have implications for strategic stability, verification mechanisms, warhead and delivery-system limits, and broader foreign policy relations, including the Trump-Putin and Ukraine context reflected in the market’s tags. Traders in this prediction market are weighing the odds of a concrete diplomatic breakthrough rather than loose negotiations.\n\nCurrent market probability is 0%, suggesting no confirmed agreement is priced in at the moment. The market remains active through the end-of-year resolution window, with official U.S. or Russian announcements, or overwhelming credible reporting, serving as the likely source for event prediction and final resolution.",60482.923157000005,{"id":968,"title":969,"slug":970,"category":8,"subcategory":15,"tags":971,"probability":973,"createdAt":974,"updatedAt":975,"resolutionDate":40,"description":976,"summary":977,"volume1wk":978,"featured":214},"145925","Will the U.S. invade Mexico in 2026?","will-the-us-invade-mexico-in-2026",[15,660,36,32,972],"Mexico Cartel War",4.55,"2026-06-16T10:08:18.924Z","2026-06-16T10:02:06.169Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Mexican land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Mexico or the United States, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.","Will the U.S. invade Mexico in 2026? is a geopolitics prediction market tracking whether the United States will begin a military offensive aimed at establishing control over any part of Mexican land territory by December 31, 2026. The market resolves to Yes only if credible reporting shows that such an operation starts before the deadline; otherwise it resolves to No. This makes the event a focused forecast on a major cross-border military action, with attention on U.S.-Mexico relations, politics, and broader regional security concerns. As of the latest update, traders are pricing the probability at about 4.55%, indicating that the expected outcome is still overwhelmingly No, though the market sentiment can shift with new geopolitical developments. The contract is active from January 5, 2026 through the end of the year, giving participants a full-year prediction horizon. Because resolution depends on a consensus of credible reporting, the market is tied to real-world military and diplomatic signals rather than speculation alone. For prediction market watchers, this event combines geopolitical risk, event prediction, and probability-based pricing in a highly sensitive international context.",24839.395718,{"id":980,"title":981,"slug":982,"category":8,"subcategory":91,"tags":983,"probability":19,"createdAt":984,"updatedAt":985,"resolutionDate":40,"description":986,"summary":987,"volume1wk":988,"featured":214},"81428","U.S. Embassy in Damascus reopened by...?","us-embassy-in-damaskus-reopend-by",[91,882,36,15],"2026-05-30T10:43:17.223Z","2026-06-16T10:02:05.796Z","The United States has suspended operations of the Embassy in Damascus since February 6, 2012. As of market creation, the Government of the Czech Republic serves as the protecting power for U.S. interests in Syria and provides limited consular services to U.S. citizens.\n\nThis market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the U.S. government announces the reopening of its embassy in Damascus or if such a reopening is otherwise confirmed by 11:59 PM ET on the specified date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nAn official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a \"Yes\" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.\n\nAny opening of a U.S. embassy in Damascus will qualify regardless of its exact location.\n\nAnnouncements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial\u002Fconditional steps, will not count.\n\nThe resolution source will be official statements from the Governments of the U.S. and Syria; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.","U.S. Embassy in Damascus reopened by...? is a geopolitics prediction market focused on whether the United States will announce the reopening of its embassy in Damascus, Syria, or otherwise confirm that the mission has been reopened by the specified deadline. The market resolves to Yes if an official U.S. government announcement is made within the timeframe, even if the physical reopening occurs later, and it also counts a reopening at any location in Damascus. General diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial steps do not qualify. This makes the event a straightforward forecast of a concrete policy move in U.S.-Syria relations, with official statements from the U.S. and Syrian governments, plus credible reporting, used as resolution sources. The market is active from November 14, 2025 through December 31, 2026. Current market probability is 0%, indicating traders see no immediate expectation of reopening. As a Middle East event prediction, it reflects market sentiment around diplomatic normalization, consular access, and the broader geopolitical outlook for Syria.",15956.536746,{"id":990,"title":991,"slug":992,"category":8,"subcategory":993,"tags":994,"probability":19,"createdAt":995,"updatedAt":996,"resolutionDate":566,"description":997,"summary":998,"volume1wk":999,"featured":214},"25413","Will Russia invade a NATO country by...?","will-russia-invade-a-nato-country-in-2025","Poland",[993,221,36,204,15,283],"2026-05-30T10:42:58.680Z","2026-06-16T10:02:05.609Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any NATO country between May 28 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by NATO member states or Russia as of May 28, 2025, will be considered the sovereign territory of those countries.\n\nHybrid or “grey zone” operations conducted by unmarked personnel will qualify if they are confirmed to be Russian operatives and are intended to establish de facto control over territory, as occurred in Crimea (2014) or Donbas (2014–2022).\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.","Will Russia invade a NATO country by...? is a geopolitics prediction market asking whether Russia will begin a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of a NATO member state between May 28 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. The market resolves to Yes only if credible sources confirm an incursion or a grey-zone operation by Russian operatives that is meant to create de facto control, similar to the Crimea or Donbas precedents described in the rules. If no such action occurs by the deadline, the outcome is No.\n\nThis event matters because it sits at the center of NATO security, Russia-Ukraine spillover risk, and broader European geopolitical stability. Tags and category signals point especially to Poland, NATO, Ukraine, World politics, and geopolitics, making it relevant to traders following regional escalation risk.\n\nCurrent market probability is 0%, indicating traders currently assign no likelihood to the Yes outcome. As a prediction market forecast, that pricing reflects current market sentiment rather than a guarantee, and it can change quickly if conditions shift.",48542.767321000014,{"id":1001,"title":1002,"slug":1003,"category":8,"subcategory":526,"tags":1004,"probability":1005,"createdAt":1006,"updatedAt":1007,"resolutionDate":55,"description":1008,"summary":1009,"volume1wk":1010,"featured":214},"107996","Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? ","ukraine-agrees-not-to-join-nato-by-june-30",[526,36,204,221,15,206,283],1.9,"2026-05-30T10:42:48.370Z","2026-06-16T10:02:05.162Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Ukraine publicly agrees not to join NATO by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.\n\nAny agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if\u002Fwhen the agreement goes into effect.\n\nAn agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).\n\nAn agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement. \n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.","Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? is a geopolitics prediction market focused on whether Ukraine will publicly agree not to join NATO by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The market resolves to Yes if Ukraine makes an official pledge on its own or as part of an agreement with Russia, and any qualifying commitment made before the deadline counts even if it is not immediately implemented. This includes a pledge for any time period, such as a temporary or multi-year commitment, and even a precondition tied to a broader peace process. The primary resolution source is an official Ukrainian announcement, though strong, credible reporting could also determine the outcome. As of the latest data, traders assign about a 3.25% probability to a Yes resolution, indicating market sentiment still expects this outcome to remain unlikely. The event sits in the Russia and Ukraine Peace Deal context and is closely watched because any movement on NATO membership could affect wider negotiations in the war between Russia and Ukraine.",116061.96882400007,{"id":1012,"title":1013,"slug":1014,"category":8,"subcategory":234,"tags":1015,"probability":19,"createdAt":1016,"updatedAt":1017,"resolutionDate":169,"description":1018,"summary":1019,"volume1wk":1020,"featured":214},"194051","Will Russia capture all of Ternuvate by...?","will-russia-capture-all-of-ternuvate-by-february-28",[234,36,15,204],"2026-05-30T10:43:20.809Z","2026-06-16T10:02:03.162Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the entirety of Ternuvate, Zaporizhzhya Oblast, (47.8301° N, 36.1268° E) by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.\n\nTernuvate will be considered captured if the entirety of the municipality is shaded red on the ISW map (https:\u002F\u002Fstorymaps.arcgis.com\u002Fstories\u002F36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”.\n\nFor any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.\n\nThe territory of the municipality is shaded in light grey and is distinguished from bordering municipalities with a darker grey line. If all area within the municipality is shaded in red, however, the shading does not precisely match up with the border such that there is a tiny amount of grey along the border of the city, this will still qualify for a \"Yes\" resolution.\n\nOnce Russia captures the entirety of Ternuvate, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.\n\nLocation on Google maps: https:\u002F\u002Fmaps.app.goo.gl\u002FdSsbhxhymtVQgM7RA \n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https:\u002F\u002Fdeepstatemap.live\u002F) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.\n\nNote: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.\n\nIf Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.","Will Russia capture all of Ternuvate by...? is a geopolitics prediction market on whether Russian forces will take full control of Ternuvate, Zaporizhzhya Oblast, by the market’s resolution deadline. The event focuses on the territory being marked as entirely under Russian control on the ISW Ukraine map, with DeepStateMap or credible reporting used only if the primary source is unavailable. In plain terms, traders are forecasting whether the municipality of Ternuvate will be fully captured rather than partially contested, with temporary map glitches excluded from resolution. The market also allows for a Yes outcome if Russia gains actual control through a negotiated settlement. The forecast is time-bound, with the referenced deadline set for February 28, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. As of the latest available data, market probability is 0%, suggesting no priced-in expectation of a successful capture. This event sits in the Ukraine Map subcategory and reflects broader market sentiment on the pace and extent of territorial change in the Russia-Ukraine war.",11905.154989,{"id":1022,"title":1023,"slug":1024,"category":8,"subcategory":219,"tags":1025,"probability":19,"createdAt":1026,"updatedAt":1027,"resolutionDate":55,"description":1028,"summary":1029,"volume1wk":1030,"featured":214},"57057","Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by...?","israel-x-hamas-ceasefire-cancelled-by-october-31",[219,15,221,91,811],"2026-05-30T10:42:46.009Z","2026-06-16T10:02:03.037Z","On October 9, Israel and Hamas signed a deal implementing a ceasefire: https:\u002F\u002Fwww.reuters.com\u002Fworld\u002Fmiddle-east\u002Fisrael-hamas-agree-gaza-ceasefire-return-hostages-2025-10-09\u002F\n\nThis market will resolve to \"Yes\" if a either Israel or Hamas announce the cancellation of the ongoing ceasefire, or if a consensus of credible reporting confirms that the ceasefire is no longer in effect, by October 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nAnnouncements that one side or another violated the ongoing ceasefire will not be enough to resolve this market to \"Yes\"; only a definitive announcement by Israel or Hamas, or otherwise a wide consensus of credible reporting that that the ceasefire has been ended, will qualify to resolve this market to \"Yes\".\n\nThe primary solution resolution source will be official information from Hamas or the government of Israel, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.","Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by...? is a geopolitics prediction market asking whether the ceasefire agreement signed on October 9 will be formally cancelled by Israel or Hamas, or otherwise determined to be no longer in effect by October 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. The market resolves \"Yes\" only if one side announces cancellation or if credible reporting reaches a consensus that the ceasefire has ended; allegations of violations alone are not enough. This makes the forecast highly specific and tied to official statements from the government of Israel or Hamas, with Reuters-style reporting and other credible news sources relevant to resolution. The event matters because any change in the ceasefire’s status would affect the Gaza conflict, regional diplomacy, and broader Middle East market sentiment. As a prediction market, it reflects traders’ expectations about whether the ceasefire can hold through the deadline. Current market probability is 0%, indicating no priced expectation of cancellation at present, though odds can shift quickly as new developments emerge. The event remains active and is closely watched in Israel, Gaza, and the wider world geopolitical category.",1563959.2021769986,{"id":1032,"title":1033,"slug":1034,"category":8,"subcategory":219,"tags":1035,"probability":1037,"createdAt":1038,"updatedAt":1039,"resolutionDate":40,"description":1040,"summary":1041,"volume1wk":1042,"featured":214},"79192","Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by...?","israel-and-indonesia-normalize-relations-by",[219,221,15,1036,91,36],"Indonesia",12,"2026-05-30T10:42:48.452Z","2026-06-16T10:02:03.018Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if both Israel and Indonesia officially announce the establishment of diplomatic relations by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israel and Indonesia, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.","Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by...? is a geopolitics prediction market focused on whether the two countries will officially announce diplomatic relations by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The market resolves to Yes only if both Israel and Indonesia make an official announcement establishing relations before the deadline; otherwise it resolves to No. As a geopolitical forecast, it tracks a potentially significant shift in Middle East and Asia-Pacific diplomacy, with implications for regional alignment, foreign policy, and broader international recognition trends. The primary resolution source is official information from the governments of Israel and Indonesia, though credible reporting may also be used if needed. The market opened on November 11, 2025, and remains active through the end-of-2026 cutoff. Current market probability is about 8.5%, suggesting traders see normalization as possible but unlikely at present. This event prediction is relevant to users following Israel, Indonesia, Middle East politics, and world affairs, and it serves as a concise indicator of market sentiment around a low-probability diplomatic development.",143944.57961500002,{"id":1044,"title":1045,"slug":1046,"category":8,"subcategory":204,"tags":1047,"probability":19,"createdAt":1048,"updatedAt":1049,"resolutionDate":169,"description":1050,"summary":1051,"volume1wk":1052,"featured":214},"201492","Will Russia enter Pokrovskoe by...?","will-russia-enter-pokrovskoe-by",[204,15,234,36],"2026-05-30T10:43:19.377Z","2026-06-16T10:02:01.328Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures any territory of Pokrovskoe, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, (47.984559° N, 36.228316° E) between market creation and the specified date (ET).\n\nTerritory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https:\u002F\u002Fstorymaps.arcgis.com\u002Fstories\u002F36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.\n\nFor any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either \"Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine\", “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. \n\nOnce a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.\n\nIf Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https:\u002F\u002Fdeepstatemap.live\u002F) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.\n\nNote: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.","Will Russia enter Pokrovskoe by...? is a geopolitics prediction market focused on whether Russian forces capture any territory in Pokrovskoe, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, by the resolution date. The market resolves to Yes if the ISW Ukraine map shows qualifying Russian control, advance, or infiltration shading over any part of the specified area and that control persists through the next full ISW update cycle. If there is no qualifying capture by the deadline, the outcome resolves to No. The event is part of the Ukraine category and reflects ongoing market sentiment around the war in eastern and central Ukraine, where map-based territorial changes are closely watched by traders and analysts. The forecast timeframe begins with market creation on February 7, 2026 and runs through May 31, 2026. Current market probability is 0%, indicating no priced expectation of a successful Russian entry at the moment, though that can change as new battlefield reporting and map updates emerge. Because resolution depends on actual territorial control rather than announcements, this event prediction is driven by concrete developments on the ground and the official ISW map methodology.",12840.094601,{"id":1054,"title":1055,"slug":1056,"category":8,"subcategory":204,"tags":1057,"probability":354,"createdAt":1058,"updatedAt":1059,"resolutionDate":40,"description":1060,"summary":1061,"volume1wk":1062,"featured":214},"216716","Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by...?","will-russia-capture-all-of-kostyantynivka-by",[204,36,234,15],"2026-05-30T10:43:24.872Z","2026-06-16T10:02:01.263Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the entirety of Kostyantynivka, Donetsk Oblast, (48.528896° N, 37.702514° E) by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.\n\nKostyantynivka will be considered captured if the entirety of the municipality is shaded red on the ISW map (https:\u002F\u002Fstorymaps.arcgis.com\u002Fstories\u002F36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the resolution date, the market will resolve to “No”.\n\nFor any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.\n\nThe territory of the municipality is shaded in light grey and is distinguished from bordering municipalities with a darker grey line. If all area within the municipality is shaded in red, however, the shading does not precisely match up with the border such that there is a tiny amount of grey along the border of the city, this will still qualify for a \"Yes\" resolution.\n\nOnce Russia captures the entirety of the specified area, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.\n\nLocation on Google maps: https:\u002F\u002Fmaps.app.goo.gl\u002Fp9N3w6yRVfjx6cuZ8\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https:\u002F\u002Fdeepstatemap.live\u002F) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.\n\nNote: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.\n\nIf Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.","Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by...? is a geopolitics prediction market focused on whether Russian forces will take full control of Kostyantynivka in Donetsk Oblast, Ukraine, by the specified resolution date. The event is tied to the ISW Ukraine map, with a fallback to DeepStateMap or credible reporting if needed, and it resolves “Yes” only if the entire municipality is shown as captured or Russia otherwise establishes actual control by the deadline. This makes it a closely watched Ukraine forecast for traders following battlefield developments, map changes, and the broader outlook for the Donetsk front. The market is active from February 19, 2026 through December 31, 2026, giving participants a long window to assess event prediction signals and shifting market sentiment. Current market probability is about 3.15%, suggesting traders see a relatively low chance of full capture by the cutoff, though the odds can change as conditions evolve. Because the resolution depends on sustained control reflected in official map updates, this prediction market is especially sensitive to verified territorial gains rather than temporary claims or reporting.",33042.19662999999,{"id":1064,"title":1065,"slug":1066,"category":8,"subcategory":91,"tags":1067,"probability":1069,"createdAt":1070,"updatedAt":1071,"resolutionDate":82,"description":1072,"summary":1073,"volume1wk":1074,"featured":214},"571194","Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by…?","israeli-forces-withdraw-from-beyond-the-litani-river-by-20260607234645733",[91,1068,36,353,219,416,415,15],"Litani",0.05,"2026-06-16T10:08:25.438Z","2026-06-16T10:02:00.810Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanese territory beyond the Litani River by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor this market to resolve to \"Yes\" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory beyond the Litani River, regardless of if some specified territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.","Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by…? is a geopolitics prediction market focused on whether Israel will announce that all of its ground forces have withdrawn from Lebanese territory north of, or beyond, the Litani River by 11:59 PM ET on the specified date. The event resolves to Yes only if there is a clear Israeli government announcement confirming the withdrawal; a statement about a future or planned withdrawal is not enough. Credible reporting may also be used if it overwhelmingly confirms the expected outcome. This Middle East forecast matters because the Litani River is a key geographic reference point in Israel-Lebanon tensions and broader regional security developments. Traders are pricing in a low probability of success, with current market odds around 5%, suggesting sentiment leans toward a No resolution. As a prediction market, it reflects expectations about geopolitical actions, official statements, and the timing of military disengagement rather than a policy judgment. The market remains active and is being watched for any government announcement or corroborating reporting before the deadline.",16763.643405,{"id":1076,"title":1077,"slug":1078,"category":8,"subcategory":221,"tags":1079,"probability":1081,"createdAt":1082,"updatedAt":1083,"resolutionDate":40,"description":1084,"summary":1085,"volume1wk":1086,"featured":214},"73129","U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea before 2027? ","us-recognizes-russian-sovereignty-over-crimea-before-2027",[221,32,15,1080,526],"crimea",14.5,"2026-06-16T10:08:20.606Z","2026-06-16T10:02:00.447Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the U.S. government formally recognizes Russian sovereignty over the majority of the Crimean peninsula by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nDonald Trump's March 25, 2019, recognition of Israel's sovereignty over the Golan Heights is an example of a qualifying action. \n\nStatement of intents, or announcements of planned recognition will not qualify. \n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. \n","U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea before 2027? is a geopolitics prediction market asking whether the U.S. government will formally recognize Russian sovereignty over the majority of the Crimean peninsula by December 31, 2026. The event is relevant because any such recognition would represent a major shift in U.S. foreign policy and could affect broader market sentiment around the Russia-Ukraine conflict and international territorial disputes. The market resolves to “Yes” only if the U.S. government makes a qualifying formal recognition; statements of intent or planned recognition do not count. Traders are currently assigning the event a probability of about 14.5%, suggesting the expected outcome remains a “No” unless policy changes materially before the deadline. The resolution source is the U.S. Government, though credible reporting may be used if needed. As a geopolitical forecast, this event centers on official action rather than speculation, making the timing through the end of 2026 the key deadline for the prediction market.",22188.573438,{"id":1088,"title":1089,"slug":1090,"category":8,"subcategory":219,"tags":1091,"probability":19,"createdAt":1093,"updatedAt":1094,"resolutionDate":40,"description":1095,"summary":1096,"volume1wk":1097,"featured":214},"25815","Israel and Syria normalize relations by...?","israel-and-syria-normalize-relations-in-2025",[219,91,15,221,882,1092],"Trump x al-Sharaa","2026-05-30T10:43:12.471Z","2026-06-16T10:02:00.254Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if both Israel and Syria officially announce the establishment of diplomatic relations by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israel and the Syria, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.","Israel and Syria normalize relations by...? is a geopolitics prediction market asking whether both countries will officially announce diplomatic relations by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. The event focuses on a formal normalization step between Israel and Syria, with resolution based primarily on official statements from the two governments, though credible reporting may also be considered. As a geopolitical forecast, the market reflects trader expectations about whether a long-running regional divide can narrow through formal diplomatic recognition. The current market probability is 0%, indicating that traders assign little immediate expectation to a Yes outcome at this time. The event sits in the Israel subcategory and is relevant to broader Middle East and world politics, including the surrounding context captured in tags such as Israel, Syria, Geopolitics, and Trump x al-Sharaa. For prediction market participants, this is an event prediction centered on official diplomacy rather than informal contacts, making the wording of any announcement and the timing before the deadline decisive for resolution.",24609.013644000002,{"id":1099,"title":1100,"slug":1101,"category":8,"subcategory":219,"tags":1102,"probability":19,"createdAt":1103,"updatedAt":1104,"resolutionDate":40,"description":1105,"summary":1106,"volume1wk":1107,"featured":214},"79926","How many different countries will Israel strike in 2026?","how-many-different-countries-will-israel-strike-in-2026",[219,13,91,36,15,221],"2026-05-30T10:42:58.118Z","2026-06-16T10:02:00.226Z","This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.\n\nStrikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.\n\nStrikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, a qualifying \"strike\" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.\n\nMissiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.\n\nActions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.\n\nThe resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.","How many different countries will Israel strike in 2026? is a geopolitics prediction market asking traders to forecast the number of distinct countries whose territory Israel will hit with a qualifying drone, missile, or air strike between January 1, 2026 and December 31, 2026. The market resolves based on credible reporting and counts strikes on sovereign soil, while excluding the West Bank, Gaza Strip, Israeli-controlled territory as of the end of 2025, intercepted missiles or drones, and non-qualifying actions such as artillery, ground incursions, cyberattacks, or naval shelling. Embassies and consulates are counted by the country where they are located, not the country they represent.\n\nThis event matters because it sits at the intersection of Israel, Iran, the Middle East, and wider global politics, where each new cross-border escalation can shift market sentiment quickly. As a prediction market, it reflects the odds that traders assign to different levels of regional military activity over the year. The current market probability is not provided, but activity and open interest suggest sustained attention to the geopolitical forecast through the end of 2026.",115163.27806600001,{"id":1109,"title":1110,"slug":1111,"category":8,"subcategory":204,"tags":1112,"probability":19,"createdAt":1113,"updatedAt":1114,"resolutionDate":169,"description":1115,"summary":1116,"volume1wk":1117,"featured":214},"197897","Will Russia capture Sofiivka by...?","will-russia-capture-sofiivka-by-february-28",[204,36,234,15],"2026-06-16T10:08:27.097Z","2026-06-16T10:02:00.187Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 48.494433° N, 37.377320° E in Sofiivka, Donetsk Oblast, by February 28, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET.\n\nThe intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https:\u002F\u002Fstorymaps.arcgis.com\u002Fstories\u002F36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.\n\nFor any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.\n\nIf Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.\n\nOnce Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.\n\nIntersection Location: https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com\u002FSo1.png\n\nIntersection Location in Sofiivka: https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com\u002FSo2.png\n\nSofiivka Location: https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com\u002FTo3.png\n\nLocation on Google Maps: https:\u002F\u002Fmaps.app.goo.gl\u002FiwjvuyoJAH6WCdaQ7\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https:\u002F\u002Fdeepstatemap.live\u002F) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.\n\nNote: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.","Will Russia capture Sofiivka by...? is a geopolitics prediction market focused on whether Russian forces will capture the specified intersection in Sofiivka, Donetsk Oblast, by February 28, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. The forecast is based primarily on the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) Ukraine map, with DeepStateMap or credible reporting used only if the primary sources become unavailable. For a “Yes” resolution, the intersection must be shown as under Russian control on the relevant map, or Russia must gain actual control through a negotiated settlement; temporary map glitches do not count. The market matters because it tracks battlefield control in eastern Ukraine and reflects trader sentiment on the likelihood of territorial advances before the deadline. Current market probability is not provided here, so the event should be read as an open-ended forecast rather than a settled outcome. The listing sits within the Ukraine and geopolitical forecast categories, making it relevant for users following Russia-Ukraine war developments, map-based resolution rules, and prediction market odds on territorial changes in Donetsk Oblast.",15470.048592,{"id":1119,"title":1120,"slug":1121,"category":8,"subcategory":204,"tags":1122,"probability":19,"createdAt":1123,"updatedAt":1124,"resolutionDate":837,"description":1125,"summary":1126,"volume1wk":1127,"featured":214},"73921","U.S. nuclear test by...?","us-nuclear-test-by",[204,15,36,32,202,526],"2026-05-30T10:43:16.350Z","2026-06-16T10:01:58.387Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.\n\nAccidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as \"dirty bombs\"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.\n\nTests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 \"Vela Incident\" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US. \n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.","U.S. nuclear test by...? is a geopolitics prediction market asking whether the United States will conduct a nuclear test by the listed deadline on March 31, 2026 (ET). The forecasted outcome resolves to Yes only if the US carries out an intentional non-combat detonation that produces a nuclear chain reaction, including a fission or fusion test. Accidents, dirty bombs, and actions by third parties do not count, and the market can also resolve based on a broad consensus of credible reporting if a test is not officially claimed. This event matters because any US nuclear test would have major implications for geopolitics, arms control, Russia-US tensions, and wider market sentiment around Ukraine and global security. As a prediction market, it reflects traders’ expectations about the odds of a test occurring before the deadline. The current market probability is 0%, indicating no active pricing for a US nuclear test at this time, though that can change as new information or headlines emerge.",19363.046541999996,{"id":1129,"title":1130,"slug":1131,"category":8,"subcategory":207,"tags":1132,"probability":155,"createdAt":1133,"updatedAt":1134,"resolutionDate":40,"description":1135,"summary":1136,"volume1wk":1137,"featured":214},"80824","Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?","will-ukraine-agree-to-cede-territory-to-russia-before-2027",[207,526,32,15,36,204,221,206],"2026-06-16T10:08:27.223Z","2026-06-16T10:01:58.067Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if a deal in which Ukraine agrees to cede any territory under its control at the time of the agreement is reached between the Russian Federation and Ukraine by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe deal must be a publicly announced mutual agreement or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting.  \n\nIf such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to \"Yes\", regardless of if\u002Fwhen the agreement goes into effect.\n\nOnly territory ceded as part of a diplomatic process or agreement will qualify. \n\nIf a territorial adjustment is made as part of a mutual border demarcation process or technical boundary agreement that does not materially alter de facto control or reflect a broader territorial concession, it will not qualify for a 'Yes' resolution unless it is reported as a territorial concession by a consensus of credible reporting.\n\nAny agreement which cedes de facto military control of territory held by Ukraine will qualify regardless of whether Ukraine formally maintains its claim to sovereignty. For example, the 1999 Kumanovo Military Technical Agreement, in which Yugoslavia agreed to pull military forces out of Kosovo but did not recognize Kosovo’s autonomy or independence would qualify for a 'Yes' resolution.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by Ukraine and\u002For the Russian Federation, however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.","Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027? is a geopolitics prediction market about whether Kyiv will reach a publicly announced or credibly reported agreement to transfer any territory it controls to the Russian Federation by December 31, 2026. The forecast focuses on a diplomatic settlement, not a battlefield change: the market resolves \"Yes\" only if Ukraine agrees to territorial concessions under the terms described in the event rules. It also covers arrangements that hand over de facto military control, even if sovereignty claims remain disputed. This makes the event relevant to ongoing discussions around the Ukraine peace deal, Zelenskyy’s role, and any broader Russia-Ukraine negotiation process. As of the latest market data, traders assign about a 15.5% probability to a Yes outcome, suggesting the expected outcome remains a No unless diplomatic conditions change materially. The market opened on November 13, 2025 and runs through the end-of-year resolution deadline on December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. For prediction market participants, the listing reflects current market sentiment on the odds of territorial concession in a future Ukraine-Russia agreement.",15431.719718999999,{"id":1139,"title":1140,"slug":1141,"category":8,"subcategory":15,"tags":1142,"probability":19,"createdAt":1143,"updatedAt":1144,"resolutionDate":169,"description":1145,"summary":1146,"volume1wk":1147,"featured":214},"279977","Israel ground operation in Iran confirmed by...?","israel-ground-operation-in-iran-confirmed-by",[15,219,13,91,415],"2026-05-30T10:43:08.214Z","2026-06-16T10:01:57.012Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if participation by Israeli military personnel in a ground operation in Iran on or after February 28, 2026, is confirmed by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nA \"ground operation\" is defined as a military operation that involves Israeli military ground forces conducting operations within Iranian territory.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, aerial and maritime operations will not be considered. Only operations involving Israeli troops on the ground within the terrestrial territory of Iran will qualify.\n\nOfficial confirmation by the Israeli military of personnel operating on the ground within Iranian territory during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that the Israeli military personnel operated on the ground within Iranian territory durring the specified timeframe will also suffice.\n\nQualifying confirmations include statements such as the June 25, 2025, statement by IDF Chief of Staff Lt.-Gen. Eyal Zamir confirmed that Israeli commando forces operated covertly on the ground inside Iran during the 12-day war.\n\nConfirmations referring only to non-military Israeli intelligence activity, including operations by the Mossad or Shin Bet, as well as airstrikes, cyberattacks, standoff weapons, remote sabotage, or actions by proxies or third parties without Israeli military presence, will not alone qualify.\n\nIncidents that would not alone suffice include the November 2025 Mossad statement indicating its agents were present during protests in Iran, or the July 31, 2024, assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, widely attributed to Mossad agents.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the Israeli military; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice. ","Israel ground operation in Iran confirmed by...? is a geopolitics prediction market asking whether official or widely corroborated confirmation will emerge that Israeli military personnel carried out a ground operation inside Iranian territory during the defined window. The market resolves to Yes only if there is confirmation of Israeli troops conducting operations on the ground in Iran on or after February 28, 2026, and by 11:59 PM ET on the end date. Airstrikes, maritime actions, cyberattacks, proxy activity, or intelligence operations by Mossad or Shin Bet do not qualify unless they involve Israeli military ground forces in Iran.\n\nThis event matters because it tests the possibility of a direct Israeli-Iranian ground incursion, a significant escalation in the Middle East and a closely watched development in geopolitics. Traders in this prediction market are forecasting an outcome based on official Israeli military statements or an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting.\n\nThe market is currently pricing this event at 0% probability, indicating that sentiment expects no qualifying confirmation before the deadline. The forecast window runs from March 17, 2026, through May 31, 2026, making this a time-bound event prediction focused on a highly specific military threshold.",78961.32155899999,{"id":1149,"title":1150,"slug":1151,"category":8,"subcategory":391,"tags":1152,"probability":19,"createdAt":1153,"updatedAt":1154,"resolutionDate":55,"description":1155,"summary":1156,"volume1wk":1157,"featured":214},"91444","Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by...?","ukraine-officially-agrees-to-a-us-backed-ceasefire-framework-in-2025",[391,204,32,205,221,36,15,202,206],"2026-05-30T10:42:49.326Z","2026-06-16T10:01:56.954Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if Ukraine officially agrees to a peace framework to end the Russo–Ukrainian war that the United States has formally endorsed by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nA qualifying peace framework is any publicly announced plan, roadmap, or framework intended as the basis for ending the war, provided that the United States formally endorses it and Ukraine officially agrees to it through one of the following:\n\n1. A written or signed framework-related instrument issued or signed by Ukraine that affirms agreement with the U.S.-endorsed framework.\n\n2. An official U.S.–Ukraine announcement — defined as an official government-issued declaration, such as a joint statement, communiqué, or coordinated official releases, explicitly stating that Ukraine has agreed to a U.S.-endorsed peace framework. The announcement must be issued through authorized government channels, including official written releases or formally published transcripts by the White House, State Department, Office of the President of Ukraine, Cabinet of Ministers, or Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Verbal (including interviews or remarks during bilateral meetings) and social-media claims by either leader will not qualify unless later issued in an official written or published form by the respective government. The U.S. President or any US government official publicly stating that “an agreement has been reached,” without a corresponding formal release or communiqué, will not qualify; the same applies to statements by the Ukrainian President or Ukrainian officials.\n\n3. A formally issued Ukrainian governmental action — including a presidential decree, Cabinet resolution, or National Security and Defense Council decision — explicitly stating that Ukraine agrees to the U.S.-endorsed framework. \n\nThe primary resolution source will be official government documents, statements, decrees, and credible reporting confirming that Ukraine officially agreed to a U.S.-endorsed peace framework under the standards above.\n","Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by...? is a geopolitical prediction market focused on whether Ukraine will formally accept a peace framework endorsed by the United States before December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. The event centers on the Russo–Ukrainian war and asks traders to forecast if there will be an official, qualifying agreement from Ukraine through a written instrument, joint U.S.–Ukraine announcement, or formal Ukrainian government action such as a decree or cabinet resolution.\n\nThis market matters because it tracks a possible turning point in diplomacy between Ukraine, the United States, and broader conflict parties including the Trump-Zelenskyy axis referenced in the market category and tags. Resolution depends on official government documents or credible reporting that meets the market’s specific standards; informal remarks, interviews, or social-media claims do not count.\n\nAs of the latest market data, the current probability is 0%, suggesting traders assign no chance yet to a confirmed agreement under the event’s rules. The listing remains active through the end of June 2026, but the forecast is tied to the 2025 deadline. For prediction market watchers, it is a clear event prediction on peace talks, market sentiment, and the odds of a formal Ukraine peace deal.",486214.7633679999,1781606276228]