[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":1102},["ShallowReactive",2],{"category-events-finance":3,"category-content-finance":699},[4,26,45,57,75,92,107,125,141,152,162,176,188,202,214,226,239,250,262,274,294,308,319,329,339,349,361,374,384,396,409,421,432,444,453,464,477,493,503,513,524,537,549,560,571,582,592,602,613,626,636,646,658,670,680,691,703,714,726,737,748,759,768,778,787,804,816,831,843,854,865,876,888,899,913,926,936,946,957,970,981,991,1002,1013,1024,1035,1046,1056,1070,1080,1090],{"id":5,"title":6,"slug":7,"category":8,"subcategory":9,"tags":10,"probability":18,"createdAt":19,"updatedAt":20,"resolutionDate":21,"description":22,"summary":23,"volume1wk":24,"featured":25},"68543","OpenAI IPO by...?","openai-ipo-by","FINANCE","Tech",[9,11,12,13,14,15,16,17],"IPOs","Big Tech","AI","Finance","Business","IPO","OpenAI IPO",0,"2026-05-30T10:42:54.796Z","2026-06-16T10:07:36.555Z","2026-12-31T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by the listed date ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.\n\nIf OpenAI is acquired by another company that is already public, this market will immediately resolve to \"No.\"\n\nThe resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.","OpenAI IPO by...? is a finance prediction market tracking whether OpenAI will complete an initial public offering by the listed deadline. The market resolves to Yes only if official company announcements or credible news sources confirm that OpenAI has gone public on a recognized stock exchange; if OpenAI is acquired by another public company, it resolves to No. As a result, traders are forecasting not just an IPO, but the broader corporate path OpenAI may take as one of the most closely watched AI and Big Tech companies. The event runs through the listed end date of 2026-12-31 ET, making it a long-dated event prediction with implications for tech, IPO, and business market sentiment. Current market probability is 0%, indicating that traders are not assigning meaningful odds to an OpenAI IPO by the deadline at this time. For search and indexing, this OpenAI IPO market sits at the intersection of finance, AI, and tech IPO forecasting, and it reflects how prediction markets price expectations around major corporate milestones.",392886.4058449999,true,{"id":27,"title":28,"slug":29,"category":8,"subcategory":30,"tags":31,"probability":38,"createdAt":39,"updatedAt":40,"resolutionDate":41,"description":42,"summary":43,"volume1wk":44,"featured":25},"101772","Fed Decision in June?","fed-decision-in-june-825","Economic Policy",[30,32,33,34,35,36,37],"Jerome Powell","Fed Rates","Fed","Politics","Economy","fomc",0.45,"2026-05-30T10:42:43.783Z","2026-06-16T10:06:42.413Z","2026-06-17T00:00:00.000Z","The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.\n\nThis market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's June 2026 meeting.\n\nIf the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut\u002Fincrease of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for June 16-17, 2026 according to the official calendar: https:\u002F\u002Fwww.federalreserve.gov\u002Fmonetarypolicy\u002Ffomccalendars.htm.\n\nThe level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https:\u002F\u002Fwww.federalreserve.gov\u002Fmonetarypolicy\u002Fopenmarket.htm.\n\nThis market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the \"No change\" bracket.\n","Fed Decision in June? is a finance prediction market tracking whether the Federal Reserve will change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate after the FOMC meeting scheduled for June 16-17, 2026. The forecast is based on the size of the rate move versus the level in place before the June 2026 meeting, with changes rounded to the nearest 25 basis points if the Fed announces an amount not listed in the market. Resolution depends on the FOMC statement or official Federal Reserve rate publication, and the market may resolve as soon as the June meeting statement is released. If no statement is issued by the end date, the market resolves to “No change.”\n\nAs of the latest update, traders are assigning about a 75% probability to this event outcome, reflecting market sentiment around the Fed rates decision, Jerome Powell, and broader economic policy expectations. The event is relevant for anyone following monetary policy, inflation signals, and the direction of U.S. interest rates.",43753405.28664605,{"id":46,"title":47,"slug":48,"category":8,"subcategory":49,"tags":50,"probability":51,"createdAt":52,"updatedAt":53,"resolutionDate":21,"description":54,"summary":55,"volume1wk":56,"featured":25},"447964","Will GameStop acquire eBay?","will-gamestop-acquire-ebay","Acquisitions",[49,14],15.5,"2026-05-30T10:43:00.923Z","2026-06-16T10:02:41.693Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if it is officially announced that eBay will be, has been, or is being acquired by or merged with GameStop, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nMergers or acquisitions involving eBay or its parent company, eBay Inc., and GameStop or its parent company (if applicable), will qualify.\n\nAn announcement by eBay or GameStop within this market's timeframe will qualify for a \"Yes\" resolution, regardless of whether or when the announced acquisition\u002Fmerger actually occurs.\n\nAnnouncements of partial sales may count, as long as GameStop acquires a controlling interest in eBay. A “controlling interest” refers to a change in ownership sufficient to control the company’s strategic decisions (typically more than 50% of equity, or equivalent control via voting and governance rights). Transactions or investments that do not result in a transfer of controlling interest will not count.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from eBay and GameStop; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.","Will GameStop acquire eBay? is a finance prediction market in the Acquisitions category that asks whether GameStop will officially announce an acquisition of eBay, or a merger involving the two companies, by December 31, 2026. The market resolves to Yes if an official announcement confirms that eBay is being acquired by, or merged with, GameStop or a relevant parent company; it can also resolve Yes if GameStop gains a controlling interest through a partial sale or similar transaction. Deals that do not transfer control do not qualify.\n\nThis event matters because it tracks a potential large-cap technology and retail transaction involving GameStop and eBay Inc., two widely recognized public companies. For traders, the forecast centers on whether market sentiment supports a takeover announcement within the stated timeframe. As of the latest update, the market probability is 15.5%, indicating relatively low odds that the expected outcome will be a confirmed acquisition or merger before the deadline. The prediction market remains active through the end of 2026, with official company statements and credible reporting serving as the primary resolution sources.",98479.773593,{"id":58,"title":59,"slug":60,"category":8,"subcategory":14,"tags":61,"probability":68,"createdAt":69,"updatedAt":70,"resolutionDate":71,"description":72,"summary":73,"volume1wk":74,"featured":25},"500753","Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?","will-anthropics-valuation-hit-by-december-31",[14,62,63,64,65,9,66,12,13,67],"Privates","llm","anthropic","Dario Amodei","Claude","Anthropic IPO",9,"2026-05-30T10:42:48.493Z","2026-06-16T10:02:41.241Z","2027-01-01T12:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Anthropic's private market valuation, as measured by the NPM Price reported by Nasdaq Private Market, LLC (NPM) for any date between market creation and December 31, 2026, reaches or exceeds the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nNPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day.\n\nIf NPM has not published relevant data for all business dates in the specified period by 1:00 PM ET on January 1, 2027, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on January 4, 2027. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the data available.\n\nIf NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published for the period prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as any applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing.\n\nIf the company completes an IPO or direct listing before the end of the specified period, this market will consider, in addition to the relevant NPM valuations published between market creation and the IPO or direct listing date, the valuation implied by the official IPO or direct listing price, and the company's public market capitalization between the IPO or direct listing date and the end of the specified period.\n\nPublic market capitalization will be determined using the highest\u002Flowest official regular-hours trading price published for the company's primary listed common equity on its primary exchange for any trading day during the specified period, multiplied by the company's total outstanding common shares at the relevant time.\n\nIf the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.\n\nIf the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, only NPM valuations and applicable public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is NPM data published here: (https:\u002F\u002Ffe.secondmarket.com\u002Fcompanies\u002Fcompany-3e197763-4ff8-4d8c-bd1f-cc2792937757\u002Fdata?return_url=https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket.com\u002Ffinance\u002Fprivates). The resolution source for any period following an IPO, direct listing, or relevant corporate action, will be official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.\n\nRevisions to previously published NPM data made after their initial release will not be considered, unless made to correct clearly erroneous data.","Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31? is a finance prediction market tracking whether Anthropic’s private company valuation will reach or exceed the listed threshold by the end of 2026. The market resolves based on Nasdaq Private Market (NPM) Price data, with daily updates published for trading days only, and it can also account for an IPO, direct listing, or other public-market valuation signals if those occur before the deadline. In plain terms, traders are forecasting the expected outcome for Anthropic’s valuation using private-market and, if applicable, public-market data. The event matters because Anthropic is one of the most closely watched AI companies, alongside references in the market to Claude, Dario Amodei, and the broader private tech and Big Tech landscape. Current market probability is about 9.5%, suggesting sentiment leans toward the valuation not reaching the target, though prediction market odds can change as new data arrives. The market starts on May 19, 2026 and is scheduled to close on January 1, 2027, with the resolution window extending briefly if final NPM data is delayed.",192762.68417000005,{"id":76,"title":77,"slug":78,"category":8,"subcategory":14,"tags":79,"probability":18,"createdAt":87,"updatedAt":88,"resolutionDate":89,"description":77,"summary":90,"volume1wk":91,"featured":25},"415443","What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in May 2026?","what-price-will-wti-hit-in-may-2026",[14,80,81,82,83,84,85,86],"Monthly","Hit Price","Hide From New","Finance Updown","Pyth Finance","Commodities","Oil","2026-05-30T10:42:43.693Z","2026-05-30T10:38:59.671Z","2026-05-31T17:00:00.000Z","What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in May 2026? is a finance prediction market focused on the monthly price range of West Texas Intermediate crude oil. Traders are forecasting which price level WTI will reach during the May 2026 contract window, making this an event prediction tied to commodity markets and oil price volatility. The market opens on April 25, 2026 and resolves by May 31, 2026, so the outcome depends on where WTI trades before the end of the month. This type of forecast matters because crude oil prices influence energy markets, inflation expectations, transport costs, and broader financial sentiment. Market participants use the prediction market to express views on supply, demand, geopolitics, and macroeconomic conditions affecting oil. Current market data shows substantial activity, with strong volume and liquidity, indicating meaningful trader interest, but no probability figure is available here to quantify the odds. As a result, the listing reflects an active commodity forecast rather than a guaranteed price target.",12887084.736748997,{"id":93,"title":94,"slug":95,"category":8,"subcategory":9,"tags":96,"probability":100,"createdAt":101,"updatedAt":102,"resolutionDate":103,"description":104,"summary":105,"volume1wk":106,"featured":25},"102007","SpaceX IPO closing market cap above ___ ?","spacex-ipo-closing-market-cap-above",[9,12,97,16,98,11,99],"Elon Musk","SpaceX","Climate & Science",98.65,"2026-05-30T10:42:46.312Z","2026-05-30T10:34:08.685Z","2027-12-31T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if the official closing price for SpaceX’s market capitalization on its first trading day is above the value specified in the title. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.\n\nIf no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nMarket capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.\n\nResolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.\n\nIn the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on SpaceX’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading.","SpaceX IPO closing market cap above ___ ? is a finance prediction market asking whether SpaceX’s official market capitalization on its first trading day will finish above the threshold named in the title. The event is tied to a potential SpaceX IPO and will resolve “Yes” only if the company’s closing price on day one, multiplied by outstanding shares, produces a market cap above that level; otherwise it resolves “No.” If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, the market resolves to “No.”\n\nThis event matters because SpaceX is one of the most closely watched private technology companies, and any public listing would be a major benchmark for valuation in the tech and IPO markets. Current market sentiment is strongly tilted toward a “Yes” outcome, with traders pricing the forecast probability at 98.65%. That implies the market expects the first-day valuation to clear the stated threshold, though the outcome still depends on an actual IPO and the official closing price on the primary exchange’s listing page. The prediction market starts on December 11, 2025 and remains open through the 2027 deadline.",1314816.7019979998,{"id":108,"title":109,"slug":110,"category":8,"subcategory":111,"tags":112,"probability":117,"createdAt":118,"updatedAt":119,"resolutionDate":120,"description":121,"summary":122,"volume1wk":123,"featured":124},"148014","What will S&P 500 (SPX) hit by end of December?","spx-hit-dec-2026","SPX",[111,113,82,14,80,114,115,116],"Indicies","S&P 500","Monthly Hit","S&P",6.3,"2026-06-16T10:08:25.567Z","2026-06-16T10:07:38.211Z","2026-12-31T21:00:00.000Z","What will S&P 500 (SPX) hit by end of December 2026?","What will S&P 500 (SPX) hit by end of December? is a finance prediction market focused on the year-end level of the S&P 500 index. Traders are forecasting the expected outcome for SPX by the close of December 31, 2026, making this an event prediction tied to one of the most closely watched U.S. equity benchmarks. The market is designed to reflect where participants think the index will finish, not where it will trade at any single point during the year.\n\nThis forecast matters because the S&P 500 is a key barometer for broader market sentiment, economic expectations, and investor risk appetite. With the event active from January 7, 2026 through December 31, 2026, market odds may shift as new data, earnings, inflation readings, and policy developments affect trader expectations.\n\nCurrent market probability stands at 6.3%, suggesting a relatively low implied chance at the listed outcome at this stage. As with any prediction market, that figure reflects trader positioning and may change as liquidity, open interest, and new information evolve through the year.",16631.394644,false,{"id":126,"title":127,"slug":128,"category":8,"subcategory":14,"tags":129,"probability":135,"createdAt":136,"updatedAt":137,"resolutionDate":138,"description":127,"summary":139,"volume1wk":140,"featured":124},"588595","What will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit Week of June 15 2026?","will-googl-hit-week-of-june-15-2026",[14,130,81,82,83,84,131,132,133,134],"Weekly","Stocks","Equities","GOOGL","Rewards Automation 50 4.5 50 Deprec",6.5,"2026-06-16T10:08:22.272Z","2026-06-16T10:07:22.868Z","2026-06-19T20:00:00.000Z","What will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit Week of June 15 2026? is a finance prediction market focused on where Alphabet’s stock price will land during the June 15, 2026 weekly window. Traders are forecasting the expected outcome for GOOGL’s price action over this period, making it a straightforward event prediction tied to one of the most widely followed U.S. equities. The market opens on June 12, 2026 and runs through June 19, 2026, so the forecast is centered on the stock’s level by the end of that week. Current market probability is about 6.5%, which suggests sentiment is cautious and that traders see this price target as relatively unlikely, though still possible. As a weekly hit-price market, it reflects broader expectations around Alphabet’s short-term performance, volatility, and investor sentiment rather than a long-term valuation call. This event sits within the finance and stocks categories and is relevant for users tracking market odds, equity forecasts, and prediction market pricing around GOOGL.",20097.011782,{"id":142,"title":143,"slug":144,"category":8,"subcategory":14,"tags":145,"probability":68,"createdAt":146,"updatedAt":147,"resolutionDate":148,"description":149,"summary":150,"volume1wk":151,"featured":124},"500547","Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by June 30?","will-anthropics-valuation-hit-by-june-30",[14,62,63,65,66,13,12,9,64,67],"2026-05-30T10:42:54.188Z","2026-06-16T10:07:05.262Z","2026-07-01T12:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Anthropic's private market valuation, as measured by the NPM Price reported by Nasdaq Private Market, LLC (NPM) for any date between market creation and June 30, 2026, reaches or exceeds the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nNPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day.\n\nIf NPM has not published relevant data for all business dates in the specified period by 1:00 PM ET on July 1, 2026, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on July 4, 2026. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the data available.\n\nIf NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published for the period prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as any applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing.\n\nIf the company completes an IPO or direct listing before the end of the specified period, this market will consider, in addition to the relevant NPM valuations published between market creation and the IPO or direct listing date, the valuation implied by the official IPO or direct listing price, and the company’s public market capitalization between the IPO or direct listing date and the end of the specified period. \n\nPublic market capitalization will be determined using the highest\u002Flowest official regular-hours trading price published for the company’s primary listed common equity on its primary exchange for any trading day during the specified period, multiplied by the company’s total outstanding common shares at the relevant time.\n\nIf the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.\n\nIf the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, only NPM valuations and applicable public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is NPM data published here: (https:\u002F\u002Ffe.secondmarket.com\u002Fcompanies\u002Fcompany-3e197763-4ff8-4d8c-bd1f-cc2792937757\u002Fdata?return_url=https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket.com\u002Ffinance\u002Fprivates). The resolution source for any period following an IPO, direct listing, or relevant corporate action, will be official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.\n\nRevisions to previously published NPM data made after their initial release will not be considered, unless made to correct clearly erroneous data.","Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by June 30? is a finance prediction market tracking whether the AI company Anthropic’s private-market valuation will reach or exceed a specified level before the deadline. The event focuses on valuation data reported by Nasdaq Private Market (NPM) and, if applicable, any later public-market pricing from an IPO or direct listing. In plain terms, traders are forecasting the expected outcome of whether Anthropic’s implied value crosses the listed threshold at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026.\n\nThis matters because Anthropic is one of the most closely watched private AI firms, alongside competitors in the broader LLM and Big Tech ecosystem. The market reflects sentiment around Claude, Anthropic’s growth trajectory, and investor demand for private AI assets. As of the latest update, the prediction market implies about a 29.5% probability of a Yes resolution, suggesting traders see the valuation target as possible but not the base case.\n\nThe market remains active through early July if data coverage is incomplete, with resolution based on published NPM records and, if needed, official exchange data after a listing.",43309.470886,{"id":153,"title":154,"slug":155,"category":8,"subcategory":34,"tags":156,"probability":38,"createdAt":157,"updatedAt":158,"resolutionDate":41,"description":159,"summary":160,"volume1wk":161,"featured":124},"106884","Fed rate cut by...?","fed-rate-cut-by-629",[34,32,36,30,33,14],"2026-05-30T10:42:50.812Z","2026-06-16T10:06:46.791Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is decreased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting for January 2026, currently scheduled for January 27-28. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nIf no January meeting takes place by February 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to \"No\". \n\nEmergency rate cuts will qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https:\u002F\u002Fwww.federalreserve.gov\u002Fmonetarypolicy\u002Fopenmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.","Fed rate cut by...? is a prediction market on whether the Federal Reserve will lower the upper bound of the target federal funds rate before the January 2026 FOMC meeting concludes. The market resolves to “Yes” if the Fed announces a rate cut at any point between December 16, 2025 and the end of the January 27-28, 2026 meeting; if no qualifying cut occurs by the specified February 7, 2026 cutoff, it resolves to “No.” Emergency rate cuts also count. This event matters because Fed policy is a key driver of inflation expectations, borrowing costs, and broader financial conditions, making it closely watched by traders, economists, and market participants following Jerome Powell and the Federal Reserve. As of the latest data, the market probability is about 1.6%, suggesting traders currently assign a low chance of an imminent rate cut. That sentiment reflects the event prediction embedded in Fed rates, economic policy, and the wider finance category. Resolution will rely primarily on official Federal Reserve communications, with credible reporting used as backup when needed.",346970.83198499994,{"id":163,"title":164,"slug":165,"category":8,"subcategory":14,"tags":166,"probability":169,"createdAt":170,"updatedAt":171,"resolutionDate":172,"description":173,"summary":174,"volume1wk":175,"featured":124},"522302","What will Natural Gas (NG) hit in June 2026?","what-price-will-ng-hit-in-june-2026",[14,80,81,82,83,84,85,167,168],"natural gas","Rewards Automation 400, 4.5, 50 (1) Deprec",1.65,"2026-06-16T10:08:03.307Z","2026-06-16T10:05:53.032Z","2026-07-01T03:59:59.999Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if, at any point after market creation and during a trading session of June 2026, any 1-minute candle for the Active Month of Natural Gas futures has a final \"High\" or \"Low\" price equal to or beyond (above for ↑ High Prices, below for ↓ Low Prices) the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nPrices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding.\n\nIf the Active Month contract does not trade at all during the listed time frame, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nOnly prices achieved during an applicable trading session of the specified timeframe’s business days will be considered. The trading session for a given business day typically begins at 6:00 PM ET on the prior calendar date. Under the standard schedule, trading is open from 6:00:00 PM ET Sunday through 5:00:00 PM ET Friday, with a daily break from 5:00:00 PM ET to 6:00:00 PM ET, except where modified by holiday or special-session hours.\n\nThe active month changes at the start of the second trading session prior to that contract's last trading session, at which point the next listed contract becomes the active month (i.e., for the final three trading sessions of the nearest listed contract, the contract for the next month is the active month). \n\nPer CME contract specifications for Natural Gas (NG) futures, the last trading day is defined as the third last business day of the month preceding the contract's delivery month.\n\nFor example, if the last business day of the month preceding the contract's delivery month is a Thursday, the last trading session is the session for the prior Tuesday, and the next listed contract becomes the active month at the start of the trading session for the Friday of the previous week (6:00 PM ET on Thursday), assuming a standard trading calendar.\n\nIf the relevant Pyth data is unavailable due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption that prevents verification of the required 1-minute candle data, the official daily high\u002Flow price published for the Active Month Natural Gas (NG) futures contract by CME Group may be used to determine whether the listed price was reached during the applicable trading session.\n\nIn the event of a contract specification change, feed change, or similar structural modification affecting the underlying market during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is Pyth — specifically, the Active Month Natural Gas futures \"High\" and \"Low\" prices available at https:\u002F\u002Fpythdata.app\u002Fexplore?search=NGD, with the chart settings configured for 1-minute candles. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the \"t=\" parameter.","What will Natural Gas (NG) hit in June 2026? is a Finance prediction market tracking whether the active-month Natural Gas futures contract will touch specific price levels during a June 2026 trading session. The event resolves \"Yes\" if, at any point after market creation and during the month, any 1-minute candle for the Active Month NG contract records a final High or Low price at or beyond the listed threshold, using Pyth data exactly as published. If the contract does not trade during the period, the market resolves \"No.\"\n\nThis forecast matters because Natural Gas futures are a closely watched commodities market, and traders use these event predictions to gauge market sentiment around price volatility, seasonal demand, and contract movement. The active month rolls according to CME rules, so the relevant contract may change during June as expiration approaches. The market opens on May 25, 2026 and runs through June 2026, with resolution expected after the relevant trading window closes.\n\nCurrent market probability is about 1.65%, indicating traders currently assign a low chance of the listed price being hit, though odds can change quickly as conditions evolve.",115127.22922500002,{"id":177,"title":178,"slug":179,"category":8,"subcategory":114,"tags":180,"probability":181,"createdAt":182,"updatedAt":183,"resolutionDate":184,"description":185,"summary":186,"volume1wk":187,"featured":124},"148013","What will S&P 500 (SPX) hit by end of June?","spx-hit-jun-2026",[114,113,14,80,116,111],100,"2026-05-30T10:43:11.489Z","2026-06-16T10:04:58.334Z","2026-06-30T20:00:00.000Z","What will S&P 500 (SPX) hit by end of June 2026?","What will S&P 500 (SPX) hit by end of June? is a finance prediction market focused on where the U.S. stock index will finish by June 30, 2026. The event asks traders to forecast the expected outcome for the S&P 500 (SPX) over a monthly timeframe, making it a useful snapshot of market sentiment around equities, macroeconomic conditions, and broader risk appetite. The market is active from January 7, 2026 through the end-of-month deadline on June 30, 2026, when the result will be determined. As a prediction market, it reflects how participants are pricing the event rather than any guaranteed financial view. Current market probability is listed at 100%, which indicates the market is fully assigned to an outcome in the listing data, though traders should still rely on the official event rules for settlement details. With tags and keywords centered on S&P 500, SPX, indices, finance, and monthly forecast, this event is designed for users tracking market odds and event prediction around one of the most closely watched benchmark indexes.",76773.333035,{"id":189,"title":190,"slug":191,"category":8,"subcategory":192,"tags":193,"probability":196,"createdAt":197,"updatedAt":198,"resolutionDate":103,"description":199,"summary":200,"volume1wk":201,"featured":124},"193867","Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?","will-anthropic-or-openai-ipo-first","OpenAI",[192,194,195,13,11,16,15,14,17,67],"Claude 5","sam altman",63.5,"2026-06-16T10:08:14.131Z","2026-06-16T10:04:57.055Z","This market will resolve to \"Anthropic\" if Anthropic completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before OpenAI completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources. \n\nThis market will resolve to \"OpenAI\" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before Anthropic completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources. \n\nThis market will resolve 50-50 if:\n- Neither company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;\n- Both companies complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or\n- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.\n\nThe IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.","Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first? is a finance prediction market tracking which of the two leading AI companies will complete an initial public offering before the other. The event asks traders to forecast whether Anthropic or OpenAI will list first on a recognized stock exchange, with resolution based on official company announcements and credible news coverage. The market also defines a 50-50 outcome if neither company goes public by December 31, 2027, if both IPO on the same calendar date, or if both become unable to complete an IPO through acquisition, merger, or absorption by a public company. As of the latest data, market probability is around 63.5% for one side of the forecast, indicating sentiment is leaning toward a particular expected outcome, though the result remains uncertain. The prediction market is relevant to anyone following AI business strategy, OpenAI, Anthropic, Sam Altman, and the broader IPO landscape. With the deadline set for late 2027, this event prediction reflects how traders are pricing the timing and likelihood of two major AI firms entering public markets.",34577.313482,{"id":203,"title":204,"slug":205,"category":8,"subcategory":14,"tags":206,"probability":207,"createdAt":208,"updatedAt":209,"resolutionDate":210,"description":211,"summary":212,"volume1wk":213,"featured":124},"522294","What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in June 2026?","what-price-will-wti-hit-in-june-2026",[14,80,81,82,83,84,85,86],0.15,"2026-05-30T10:43:08.617Z","2026-06-16T10:04:48.430Z","2026-06-30T17:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if, at any point after market creation and during a trading session of June 2026, any 1-minute candle for the Active Month of WTI Crude Oil futures has a final \"High\" or \"Low\" price equal to or beyond (above for ↑ High Prices, below for ↓ Low Prices) the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nPrices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding.\n\nIf the Active Month contract does not trade at all during the listed time frame, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nOnly prices achieved during an applicable trading session of the specified timeframe’s business days will be considered. The trading session for a given business day typically begins at 6:00 PM ET on the prior calendar date. Under the standard schedule, trading is open from 6:00:00 PM ET Sunday through 5:00:00 PM ET Friday, with a daily break from 5:00:00 PM ET to 6:00:00 PM ET, except where modified by holiday or special-session hours.\n\nThe active month changes at the start of the second trading session prior to the nearest listed contract's last trading session. At that point, the next listed contract becomes the active month (i.e., for the final three trading sessions of the nearest listed contract, the contract for the next month is the active month). \n\nPer CME contract specifications for WTI Crude Oil (CL) futures, a contract's last trading day is three business days prior to the 25th calendar day of the month preceding the contract's delivery month (or four business days prior if the 25th calendar day is not a business day).\n\nFor example, if the 25th of the month is a Saturday, the last trading session for the nearest listed contract is the session for Tuesday the 21st, and the next listed contract becomes the active month at the start of the trading session for Friday the 17th (6:00 PM ET on Thursday), assuming a standard trading calendar.\n\nIf the relevant Pyth data is unavailable due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption that prevents verification of the required 1-minute candle data, the official daily high\u002Flow price published for the Active Month WTI Crude Oil (CL) futures contract by CME Group may be used to determine whether the listed price was reached during the applicable trading session.\n\nIn the event of a contract specification change, feed change, or similar structural modification affecting the underlying market during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is Pyth — specifically, the Active Month WTI Crude Oil futures \"High\" and \"Low\" prices available at https:\u002F\u002Fpythdata.app\u002Fexplore?search=WTI, with the chart settings configured for 1-minute candles. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the \"t=\" parameter.","What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in June 2026? is a finance prediction market focused on the monthly price range for West Texas Intermediate crude oil. Traders are forecasting which price level WTI will reach during the June 2026 contract window, making this an event prediction tied to commodity markets, oil prices, and broader energy market sentiment. The market opened on 2026-05-25 and runs through 2026-06-30 at 17:00 UTC, so the expected outcome will be determined by WTI’s performance over that period. Current market probability is about 45%, suggesting a fairly balanced outlook rather than a strong consensus. As with other hit-price markets, traders use the forecast to express expectations about supply, demand, geopolitical risk, and short-term volatility in crude oil. This event is relevant for participants following finance, commodities, and oil markets, especially those tracking how prediction market odds reflect changing sentiment around WTI Crude Oil in June 2026.",1981724.6436299998,{"id":215,"title":216,"slug":217,"category":8,"subcategory":16,"tags":218,"probability":219,"createdAt":220,"updatedAt":221,"resolutionDate":222,"description":223,"summary":224,"volume1wk":225,"featured":124},"48299","Discord IPO Closing Market Cap","discord-ipo-closing-market-cap",[16,9,11,14],0.35,"2026-06-16T10:08:21.543Z","2026-06-16T10:04:45.876Z","2026-06-30T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve based on Discord's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.\n\nIf no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"No IPO by June 30, 2026\".\n\nMarket capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.\n\nIf the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nResolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.\n\nIn the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Discord’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.","Discord IPO Closing Market Cap is a finance prediction market asking what Discord’s market capitalization will be at the closing price on its first day of trading. The forecast is based on the company’s official closing share price on the primary exchange, multiplied by shares outstanding, with the result resolved into the appropriate bracket. If Discord does not complete an IPO by June 30, 2026, the market resolves to \"No IPO by June 30, 2026.\" This event matters because Discord is a widely followed tech company, and its listing outcome will shape trader expectations around valuation, IPO demand, and broader market sentiment toward software and consumer internet offerings. As of the latest market data, traders are assigning about a 35% probability to the listed outcome, reflecting moderate confidence rather than certainty. The prediction market runs through the June 30, 2026 deadline, and resolution will depend on the official closing price from the first trading session, or the next available official close if trading is interrupted.",21066.553167000002,{"id":227,"title":228,"slug":229,"category":8,"subcategory":11,"tags":230,"probability":232,"createdAt":233,"updatedAt":234,"resolutionDate":235,"description":236,"summary":237,"volume1wk":238,"featured":124},"549019","Anthropic IPO by __?","anthropic-ipo-by",[11,231,14,16,67,64],"Dario",0.25,"2026-06-16T10:07:59.399Z","2026-06-16T10:04:29.763Z","2027-07-01T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Anthropic shares are listed on a public securities exchange and open for trading by 11:59 PM ET on the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nIf Anthropic is acquired by another company that is already public, this market will immediately resolve to \"No.\"\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market is official filings and announcements from Anthropic and the relevant securities exchange on which the shares are listed, including SEC filings (e.g., Form S-1, Form 8-A), exchange listing confirmations, and official press releases from Anthropic; however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. ","Anthropic IPO by __? is a finance prediction market asking whether Anthropic will have its shares listed on a public securities exchange and open for trading by the specified deadline. The market resolves to “Yes” only if the company completes an initial public offering and begins public trading by 11:59 PM ET on the listed date; if Anthropic is acquired by another public company before then, it resolves to “No.” The forecast is therefore focused on the timing and execution of a potential Anthropic IPO, not on company valuation or long-term performance. Market sentiment currently implies about a 25% probability of a successful listing by the deadline, so traders appear to expect the event to be possible but far from certain. The primary resolution sources are official Anthropic announcements, SEC filings such as a Form S-1 or Form 8-A, and exchange listing confirmations, with credible reporting also relevant. As an event prediction in the IPOs category, it is closely watched by traders tracking AI-sector listings, securities-market timing, and broader capital-markets conditions.",217403.622253,{"id":240,"title":241,"slug":242,"category":8,"subcategory":14,"tags":243,"probability":245,"createdAt":246,"updatedAt":247,"resolutionDate":172,"description":241,"summary":248,"volume1wk":249,"featured":124},"522290","What will S&P 500 (SPY) hit in June 2026?","what-price-will-spy-hit-in-june-2026",[14,80,81,82,83,84,131,132,244,168],"SPY",1.25,"2026-06-16T10:08:00.992Z","2026-06-16T10:04:07.851Z","What will S&P 500 (SPY) hit in June 2026? is a finance prediction market focused on the highest level the SPY ETF, which tracks the S&P 500, will reach during the June 2026 contract period. Traders are forecasting the market’s next major price milestone rather than a simple up-or-down move, making this an event prediction tied to equity index performance, volatility, and broader market sentiment. The market is active from May 25, 2026 through July 1, 2026, so the relevant outcome must be reached within that window. Current market probability is listed at 1.25%, suggesting traders see the target as possible but not the base-case outcome. Because SPY is one of the most widely watched U.S. stock market benchmarks, this forecast is often used as a real-time gauge of expectations for S&P 500 performance, risk appetite, and trader positioning across stocks and equities. As with all prediction markets, the price reflects collective odds and changing expectations rather than a certainty.",171362.37291099998,{"id":251,"title":252,"slug":253,"category":8,"subcategory":66,"tags":254,"probability":51,"createdAt":256,"updatedAt":257,"resolutionDate":258,"description":259,"summary":260,"volume1wk":261,"featured":124},"548858","Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap","anthropic-ipo-closing-market-cap-higher-strikes",[66,67,14,13,12,64,11,16,9,255],"Rewards 200, 4.5, 50 Deprec","2026-06-16T10:08:10.414Z","2026-06-16T10:04:03.029Z","2027-12-31T23:55:00.000Z","This market will resolve based on Anthropic's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.\n\nIf no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"No IPO by December 31, 2027\".\n\nMarket capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.\n\nIf the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nResolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.\n\nIn the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Anthropic’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.","Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap is a finance prediction market that forecasts Anthropic’s market capitalization at the official closing price on its first day of trading. Traders are effectively betting on which valuation bracket Anthropic will land in if and when the company goes public, with the event resolving to the bracket that matches the closing market cap. If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, the market resolves to “No IPO by December 31, 2027.” The forecast relies on the primary exchange’s official listing page, and if trading is interrupted, the official closing price of the abbreviated session or the next published closing price will be used. Market sentiment currently places the probability at 15.5%, suggesting traders see a relatively low but meaningful chance of Anthropic reaching the relevant valuation range by the deadline. As part of the broader AI, Claude, Big Tech, and IPO landscape, this event is closely watched by participants tracking Anthropic, AI sector valuations, and IPO market odds.",47631.678755,{"id":263,"title":264,"slug":265,"category":8,"subcategory":85,"tags":266,"probability":268,"createdAt":269,"updatedAt":270,"resolutionDate":271,"description":264,"summary":272,"volume1wk":273,"featured":124},"588634","What will Natural Gas (NG) hit Week of June 15 2026?","will-ng-hit-week-of-june-15-2026",[85,14,130,81,82,83,84,167,267],"Rewards Automation 100 4.5 50 (1) Deprec",1.95,"2026-06-16T10:08:30.092Z","2026-06-16T10:03:53.846Z","2026-06-19T21:00:00.000Z","What will Natural Gas (NG) hit Week of June 15 2026? is a Finance prediction market in the Commodities category that asks traders to forecast the price level natural gas will reach during the June 15, 2026 trading week. The event focuses on the expected outcome for NG rather than a simple up-or-down move, making it relevant to anyone tracking energy markets, commodity volatility, and short-term price discovery. The market opened on June 12, 2026 and is scheduled to resolve on June 19, 2026, giving participants a narrow weekly window to assess market sentiment and update odds as new information comes in. Current market probability is around 1.95%, suggesting traders see this specific price outcome as relatively unlikely at the moment, though prediction market conditions can change quickly. With active volume, liquidity, and open interest, the event reflects ongoing interest in natural gas pricing and the broader finance forecast around weekly commodity benchmarks.",12326.798950999999,{"id":275,"title":276,"slug":277,"category":8,"subcategory":278,"tags":279,"probability":288,"createdAt":289,"updatedAt":290,"resolutionDate":21,"description":291,"summary":292,"volume1wk":293,"featured":124},"199727","Will USD\u002FKRW hit __ in 2026?","will-usdkrw-hit-in-2026","Won",[278,280,281,282,283,284,14,285,286,287],"South Korea","dollar","USD\u002FKRW","F X","forex","Exchange Rate","Foreign Exchange","FX",3,"2026-05-30T10:43:01.314Z","2026-06-16T10:03:14.623Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Investing.com high price (“H”) for any USD\u002FKRW hourly candle for an hour on or before the listed end date (ET) is equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nData for a given candle will be considered finalized once the next candle appears on the specified graph. The last trading day of a given week will be considered finalized once the market closes on that day, typically at 5 PM ET on Friday.\n\nThis market will resolve as soon as any finalized USD\u002FKRW hourly candle high price is equal to or above the listed price, or once the final hourly candle in the specified period is finalized. A candle starting at 11:00 PM ET on a given date will be considered to be on that date.\n\nThis market’s resolution will be based solely on information from the “H” figure located at the top of the USD\u002FKRW Streaming Chart on Investing.com for the specified currency pair (https:\u002F\u002Fwww.investing.com\u002Fcurrencies\u002Fusd-krw-chart).","Will USD\u002FKRW hit __ in 2026? is a finance prediction market on the South Korean won exchange rate, asking whether the USD\u002FKRW pair will reach or exceed a specified price before the end date on 2026-12-31. The market resolves to “Yes” if the Investing.com high price (“H”) for any finalized USD\u002FKRW hourly candle is equal to or above the listed threshold; otherwise it resolves to “No.” In practical terms, traders are forecasting the odds that the U.S. dollar strengthens enough against the won to touch that level during the year. This event is relevant to forex and foreign exchange watchers because USD\u002FKRW reflects broader market sentiment around the dollar, South Korea’s currency, and macroeconomic conditions affecting exchange rates. The market opened on 2026-02-06, and resolution depends solely on the Investing.com USD\u002FKRW streaming chart data for the specified period. Current market probability is about 3.35%, suggesting traders assign a low expected outcome for a move to the target price within 2026.",58699.3534,{"id":295,"title":296,"slug":297,"category":8,"subcategory":15,"tags":298,"probability":301,"createdAt":302,"updatedAt":303,"resolutionDate":304,"description":305,"summary":306,"volume1wk":307,"featured":124},"532481","Safepoint IPO Closing Market Cap","safepoint-ipo-closing-market-cap",[15,14,11,16,299,300],"Insurance","Rewards 50, 4.5, 20",3.45,"2026-06-16T10:08:28.868Z","2026-06-16T10:03:02.643Z","2026-06-04T16:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve based on Safepoint's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.\n\nAs of market creation, the IPO is scheduled for June 4 (ET). If no such IPO occurs by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"No IPO before August 2026\".\n\nMarket capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company's outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency.\n\nIt is calculated as the total number of outstanding shares, multiplied by the official closing share price of the publicly traded class on the first trading day.\n\nIf necessary, to accurately capture the company's total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently.\n\nThe number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings). The closing share price on the first trading day will be determined from the primary exchange's official listing page.\n\nIf the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official company filings and the primary exchange's official listing page. The market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the total outstanding shares and the closing price from the first day of trading.\n\nIn the event of an interruption in the normal trading session on the specified company's first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that day as the first day of trading for the purposes of this market.","Safepoint IPO Closing Market Cap is a finance prediction market forecasting Safepoint’s market capitalization based on the company’s official closing share price on its first day of trading. The outcome will be determined using the total number of outstanding shares from official filings and the primary exchange’s published closing price, with any necessary conversion ratios applied to capture the company’s full market value. If the IPO does not occur by July 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to “No IPO before August 2026.”\n\nThis event matters because IPO pricing and first-day trading can quickly reset market expectations for a newly public company, especially in the insurance sector. Traders in the prediction market are effectively forecasting the company’s opening valuation range, not long-term performance. As of the latest market data, the implied probability is 3.45%, suggesting very low current market sentiment for the listed outcome. The market is scheduled around June 4 ET, making the first-day closing print the key deadline for resolution and event prediction.",13595.675476,{"id":309,"title":310,"slug":311,"category":8,"subcategory":14,"tags":312,"probability":314,"createdAt":315,"updatedAt":316,"resolutionDate":172,"description":310,"summary":317,"volume1wk":318,"featured":124},"522286","What will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit in June 2026?","what-price-will-rklb-hit-in-june-2026",[14,80,81,82,83,84,131,132,313],"RKLB",7.5,"2026-06-16T10:08:30.261Z","2026-06-16T10:03:00.872Z","What will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit in June 2026? is a finance prediction market focused on the stock’s price performance during the month of June 2026. Traders are forecasting the expected outcome for RKLB, using market odds to express where the equity may trade before the event window closes. The market opens on May 25, 2026 and runs through July 1, 2026, covering the June 2026 pricing period. With current market probability at 7.5%, sentiment suggests a relatively low chance of the specified price target being reached, though prediction market probabilities can shift as new information enters the market. This event sits in the Finance category and reflects broader interest in equities, monthly hit-price contracts, and event prediction tied to Rocket Lab’s share movement. For investors, analysts, and traders following RKLB, the listing provides a concise forecast mechanism for gauging market expectations around the stock’s June 2026 price level.",12183.062048,{"id":320,"title":321,"slug":322,"category":8,"subcategory":14,"tags":323,"probability":232,"createdAt":324,"updatedAt":325,"resolutionDate":148,"description":326,"summary":327,"volume1wk":328,"featured":124},"503159","3rd largest private company end of June?","3rd-largest-private-company-end-of-june",[14,62],"2026-06-16T10:08:17.240Z","2026-06-16T10:02:48.983Z","This market will resolve to the listed company with the third largest private market valuation on June 30, 2026.\n\nNPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day.\n\nIf NPM has not published relevant data for the specified date by 1:00 PM ET on July 1, 2026, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on July 4, 2026. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the data available.\n\nIf NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the specified date, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing.\n\nIf a company completes an IPO or direct listing before the specified date, this market will resolve based on its final NPM valuation published between market creation and the IPO or direct listing date, as this market is based on private market valuations only.\n\nIf a listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.\n\nIf a listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, only the NPM valuation achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.\n\nIf two or more companies are tied for the third highest valuation, the markets will resolve in favor of the company that achieved that valuation first. If the valuations were achieved on the same day, the market will resolve in favor of the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically.\n\nRevisions to previously published NPM data made after their initial release will not be considered, unless made to correct clearly erroneous data.\n\nThe resolution sources for this market are:\nhttps:\u002F\u002Ffe.secondmarket.com\u002Fcompanies\u002Fcompany-c62b8140-fdeb-428d-a9a6-d04eb3b24b49\u002Fdata?return_url=https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket.com\u002Ffinance\u002Fprivates\nhttps:\u002F\u002Ffe.secondmarket.com\u002Fcompanies\u002Fcompany-3e197763-4ff8-4d8c-bd1f-cc2792937757\u002Fdata?return_url=https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket.com\u002Ffinance\u002Fprivates\nhttps:\u002F\u002Ffe.secondmarket.com\u002Fcompanies\u002Fcompany-5e0e75a3-96d6-4893-8f23-9d9bac0ec1db\u002Fdata?return_url=https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket.com\u002Ffinance\u002Fprivates\nhttps:\u002F\u002Ffe.secondmarket.com\u002Fcompanies\u002Fcompany-53787f17-a704-47a9-895a-cb54833bdb1f\u002Fdata?return_url=https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket.com\u002Ffinance\u002Fprivates\nhttps:\u002F\u002Ffe.secondmarket.com\u002Fcompanies\u002Fcompany-625e5f47-7ff7-45c4-be95-0305665164bd\u002Fdata?return_url=https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket.com\u002Ffinance\u002Fprivates\nhttps:\u002F\u002Ffe.secondmarket.com\u002Fcompanies\u002Fcompany-ab5413cb-1c83-497e-b03e-2ed7ca70117d\u002Fdata?return_url=https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket.com\u002Ffinance\u002Fprivates\nhttps:\u002F\u002Ffe.secondmarket.com\u002Fcompanies\u002Fcompany-86eda4f2-01af-4275-9c70-0ff3c347c62b\u002Fdata?return_url=https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket.com\u002Ffinance\u002Fprivates\nhttps:\u002F\u002Ffe.secondmarket.com\u002Fcompanies\u002Fcompany-782c0a32-4727-4097-a40b-9a2602f243e7\u002Fdata?return_url=https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket.com\u002Ffinance\u002Fprivates\nhttps:\u002F\u002Ffe.secondmarket.com\u002Fcompanies\u002Fcompany-30839e0b-2730-4495-839f-1bf638fa9cca\u002Fdata?return_url=https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket.com\u002Ffinance\u002Fprivates\nhttps:\u002F\u002Ffe.secondmarket.com\u002Fcompanies\u002Fcompany-802a7f97-3625-4614-a13d-d999cf139330\u002Fdata?return_url=https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket.com\u002Ffinance\u002Fprivates\nhttps:\u002F\u002Ffe.secondmarket.com\u002Fcompanies\u002Fcompany-5bc8aa2b-22b5-48cc-b54a-1310145b0a86\u002Fdata?return_url=https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket.com\u002Ffinance\u002Fprivates\nhttps:\u002F\u002Ffe.secondmarket.com\u002Fcompanies\u002Fcompany-6edded11-6786-4392-9695-3cce6fda0de0\u002Fdata?return_url=https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket.com\u002Ffinance\u002Fprivates.","“3rd largest private company end of June?” is a Finance prediction market asking traders to forecast which listed company will have the third-largest private market valuation on June 30, 2026. The contract resolves using NPM Prices, which are published on trading days and updated daily, with a final resolution window extending into early July if the relevant data is delayed. This makes the event a straightforward event prediction based on private-company valuations rather than public share prices. Market sentiment currently implies about a 25% probability, suggesting traders see a meaningful but not dominant chance for one outcome over the alternatives. The forecast matters because private market rankings can shift as valuations change, companies go public, or coverage updates arrive from Second Market\u002FNPM sources. The resolution rules also account for IPOs, direct listings, mergers, acquisitions, and ties, which helps define the expected outcome clearly for prediction market participants. With the end date set for July 1, 2026, this market will remain focused on valuation data through late June and the final available NPM release.",27657.129317000003,{"id":330,"title":331,"slug":332,"category":8,"subcategory":14,"tags":333,"probability":334,"createdAt":335,"updatedAt":336,"resolutionDate":172,"description":331,"summary":337,"volume1wk":338,"featured":124},"522278","What will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit in June 2026?","what-price-will-googl-hit-in-june-2026",[14,80,81,82,83,84,131,132,133],1.55,"2026-06-16T10:08:20.239Z","2026-06-16T10:02:46.523Z","What will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit in June 2026? is a finance prediction market asking traders to forecast the price level Alphabet shares may reach during the June 2026 measurement window. As a monthly stock and equities event in the Finance category, it focuses on the expected outcome for GOOGL rather than a simple up-or-down move. The market opens on May 25, 2026 and runs through July 1, 2026, giving participants time to reassess market sentiment as new information emerges. With current market probability around 1.55%, traders appear to assign a relatively low chance to the listed outcome, though prediction market odds can change quickly as liquidity, volume, and broader equity conditions shift. This event is relevant to anyone tracking Alphabet, technology stocks, and event prediction markets, since it reflects how participants price in future stock performance over a defined monthly period.",22814.002414000002,{"id":340,"title":341,"slug":342,"category":8,"subcategory":14,"tags":343,"probability":181,"createdAt":345,"updatedAt":346,"resolutionDate":172,"description":341,"summary":347,"volume1wk":348,"featured":124},"522287","What will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit in June 2026?","what-price-will-abnb-hit-in-june-2026",[14,80,81,82,83,84,131,132,344],"ABNB","2026-06-16T10:08:21.591Z","2026-06-16T10:02:25.163Z","What will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit in June 2026? is a finance prediction market focused on the stock price level Airbnb reaches during the June 2026 contract period. Traders in this event are forecasting the expected outcome for ABNB shares, using market odds to express where the equity may trade before the market closes. The event runs from May 25, 2026, through July 1, 2026, making it a monthly hit-price forecast tied to a specific window rather than a single-day move. As a listed equities and stocks market, it reflects market sentiment around Airbnb’s near-term price action and how participants interpret broader conditions affecting the company. The current market probability is 100, indicating the market is fully assigned to the available outcome set at this time, though that should be read as a trading signal rather than a guarantee. This event is relevant for users tracking finance prediction market activity, financial forecast dynamics, and event prediction around ABNB.",20962.419251,{"id":350,"title":351,"slug":352,"category":8,"subcategory":12,"tags":353,"probability":355,"createdAt":356,"updatedAt":357,"resolutionDate":222,"description":358,"summary":359,"volume1wk":360,"featured":124},"48297","Databricks IPO Closing Market Cap","databricks-ipo-closing-market-cap",[12,9,16,354,11,14],"Databricks",0.05,"2026-06-16T10:08:17.159Z","2026-06-16T10:02:24.560Z","This market will resolve based on Databricks' market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.\n\nIf no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"No IPO by June 30, 2026\".\n\nMarket capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.\n\nIf the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nResolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.\n\nIn the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Databricks’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.","Databricks IPO Closing Market Cap is a finance prediction market focused on the company’s market capitalization at the closing price on Databricks’ first day of trading. Traders are forecasting which valuation bracket Databricks will land in once its IPO begins trading, with the event resolving to the company’s closing-day market cap based on official exchange data. If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, the market will resolve to “No IPO by June 30, 2026.”\n\nThis event matters because IPO pricing and first-day trading performance often shape market sentiment around high-growth Big Tech listings. The forecast is not about long-term fundamentals, but about the expected outcome at the close of the first trading session, including special rules for abbreviated sessions or delayed official closing prices. The current market probability is around 5%, suggesting traders assign a relatively low chance to the relevant outcome bracket at present. As a Big Tech IPO market, it reflects broader interest in Databricks, tech listing activity, and event prediction odds ahead of the June 30, 2026 deadline.",28092.522,{"id":362,"title":363,"slug":364,"category":8,"subcategory":365,"tags":366,"probability":207,"createdAt":368,"updatedAt":369,"resolutionDate":370,"description":371,"summary":372,"volume1wk":373,"featured":124},"125865","What will Gold (GC) hit__ by end of June?","gc-hit-jun-2026","COMEX Gold Futures",[365,85,82,14,367],"Gold","2026-05-30T10:42:50.671Z","2026-06-16T10:02:14.440Z","2026-06-30T17:30:00.000Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if, on any trading day, the official CME settlement price for the Active Month (front month) of Gold (GC) futures is equal to or above the listed price by the final trading day of June 2026. Otherwise, the market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor CME Gold (GC) futures contracts, the Active Month is the nearest of CME's designated delivery-cycle months (February, April, June, August, October, December) that is not the spot month. The Active Month changes automatically on the contract's First Position Date, at which point the next eligible contract month becomes the Active Month.\n\nOnly the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.\n\nNote that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.\n\nOnly days on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.\n\nThis market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for that trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily \"Settlement\" price for the Active Month of Gold (GC) futures.","What will Gold (GC) hit__ by end of June? is a finance prediction market on whether CME Gold futures will reach or exceed a listed price by the final trading day of June 2026. The event tracks the official CME settlement price for the Active Month (front month) Gold (GC) contract, and it resolves \"Yes\" if that settlement price is equal to or above the threshold on any trading day before the market closes at the end of June. If not, the outcome is \"No.\" \n\nThis forecast matters because it reflects trader expectations for COMEX gold futures and broader market sentiment around gold prices, with resolution based only on CME Group’s published daily settlement data. Intraday moves, last trades, and indicative prices do not count, which makes the event tightly linked to the exchange’s official methodology. \n\nThe market opened on December 26, 2025 and ends on June 30, 2026 at 17:30 UTC. Current market probability is about 55%, suggesting traders see a slightly better-than-even chance of the expected outcome. As a gold and commodities event prediction, it is closely watched by participants following commodity price levels and CME settlement behavior.",417176.1952010001,{"id":375,"title":376,"slug":377,"category":8,"subcategory":14,"tags":378,"probability":38,"createdAt":379,"updatedAt":380,"resolutionDate":222,"description":381,"summary":382,"volume1wk":383,"featured":124},"133436","Which banks will fail by June 30?","which-banks-will-fail-by-june-30",[14,36,15],"2026-06-16T10:08:29.325Z","2026-06-16T10:02:13.033Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed bank fails between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”\n\nFor the purposes of this market, the listed bank will be considered to have “failed” if any of the following occurs under the bank’s applicable legal or regulatory framework, within the listed date range:\n\n- The listed bank’s primary banking regulator formally declares the institution insolvent or non-viable, or withdraws or revokes the bank’s license or authorization, and such determination initiates or directly results in resolution, liquidation, wind-down, or transfer actions.\n- The listed bank enters a court-ordered liquidation, statutory resolution regime, or regulator-mandated wind-down, including the use of resolution tools such as bail-ins, forced asset transfers, or the establishment of a bridge bank.\n- A government or resolution authority intervenes in a manner that wipes out or subordinates existing equity of the listed bank and transfers effective control of the bank to the state or a designated resolution authority, with continued operations dependent on official intervention.\n- The listed bank publicly defaults on a payment obligation, including derivatives margin, repo, or physical commodity delivery, and such default is formally acknowledged by the bank’s primary regulator or resolution authority and directly results in the initiation of resolution, liquidation, license withdrawal, or regulator-mandated transfer of the bank.\n- The listed bank is subject to a compulsory merger, acquisition, or transfer of all or substantially all of its assets and liabilities ordered or directed by its primary banking regulator or resolution authority due to the bank’s financial condition or to prevent failure, regardless of whether a formal insolvency declaration or immediate equity wipeout is publicly announced at the time of transfer.\n\nIf there is a potential failure of the listed bank within this market’s date range and a qualifying regulatory or court action has occurred but has not yet been fully published by the relevant authority, this market may remain open until September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET to allow for confirmation. If no qualifying failure is confirmed by that date, this market will resolve to “No.”\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official statements, filings, or actions by the listed bank’s primary banking regulator or resolution authority; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.","“Which banks will fail by June 30?” is a finance prediction market asking traders to forecast whether any listed bank will be deemed to have failed before June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The market resolves to “Yes” if a qualifying regulatory, court-ordered, or government-led failure occurs, including insolvency declarations, license withdrawal, resolution, liquidation, forced asset transfers, or other actions that wipe out or subordinate equity and place the bank under official control. It can also resolve on certain formally acknowledged defaults that lead directly to resolution or transfer. The event matters because bank failure risk can affect broader sentiment in the economy and banking sector, especially when regulators or resolution authorities intervene. Current market probability is around 45%, suggesting traders see a meaningful but not dominant chance of a qualifying failure before the deadline. The market opened on December 31, 2025 and is scheduled to close on June 30, 2026, though it may remain open until September 30, 2026 if a potential failure needs confirmation from official sources or credible reporting. As a prediction market, it reflects live odds and evolving market sentiment rather than a guaranteed forecast.",13065.811925,{"id":385,"title":386,"slug":387,"category":8,"subcategory":9,"tags":388,"probability":181,"createdAt":391,"updatedAt":392,"resolutionDate":21,"description":393,"summary":394,"volume1wk":395,"featured":124},"86832","Which companies will be acquired before 2027?","which-companies-will-be-acquired-before-2027",[9,389,15,14,12,13,49,390],"Prediction Markets","buy","2026-05-30T10:43:11.706Z","2026-06-16T10:02:03.110Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if credible reporting confirms that any entity enters into an agreement to acquire the listed company by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nMergers where the listed company is subsumed by another entity will count toward a \"Yes\" resolution.\n\nAn announced agreement between the listed company and an acquiring entity will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the acquisition is ultimately completed.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market is official information from the listed company and\u002For its leadership; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.","Which companies will be acquired before 2027? is a finance prediction market focused on whether any listed company will enter into an acquisition agreement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The market resolves to “Yes” if credible reporting confirms that a company agrees to be acquired, including mergers where the target is subsumed by another entity, even if the deal is not ultimately completed. In practice, traders are forecasting expected outcomes across tech, big tech, AI, and broader business acquisition activity. The primary resolution source is official information from the listed company or its leadership, with credible reporting also accepted when it shows consensus. The market is active from November 24, 2025 through the end-date deadline in 2026, making the timing relevant for event prediction and market sentiment. Current market probability is 100%, indicating the market is fully pricing in a Yes resolution at the moment, though prediction market odds can change as new acquisition reports emerge.",41059.736128,{"id":397,"title":398,"slug":399,"category":8,"subcategory":11,"tags":400,"probability":402,"createdAt":403,"updatedAt":404,"resolutionDate":405,"description":406,"summary":407,"volume1wk":408,"featured":124},"577704","SpaceX Closing Market Cap End of IPO Month","spacex-closing-market-cap-end-of-ipo-month-20260606222757973",[11,9,98,15,97,14,16,12,401],"Space",3.15,"2026-06-16T10:07:58.072Z","2026-06-16T10:02:02.186Z","2026-07-01T03:59:00.000Z","This market will resolve based on SpaceX's market capitalization at the closing price on the last trading day of the calendar month in which SpaceX completes its Initial Public Offering (IPO).\n\nThe IPO refers to the first sale of stock by SpaceX to the public on any recognized stock exchange. If no SpaceX IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"No IPO before 2028\".\n\nMarket capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the last trading day of the calendar month in which SpaceX completes its IPO.\n\nIf the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nResolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.\n\nIn the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on SpaceX’s last trading day of the calendar month in which SpaceX completes its IPO (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the last trading day of the calendar month in which SpaceX completes its IPO.","SpaceX Closing Market Cap End of IPO Month is a finance prediction market asking traders to forecast SpaceX’s market capitalization at the close on the last trading day of the calendar month in which the company completes its IPO. The outcome is based on the company’s official market value, calculated from the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the relevant exchange. If SpaceX does not go public by December 31, 2027, the market resolves to “No IPO before 2028.”\n\nThis event matters because SpaceX is one of the most closely watched private companies in tech and space, with Elon Musk’s IPO plans drawing significant attention from investors and prediction market participants. Resolution will use the primary exchange’s official listing page or another reliable source if needed, and the rules also account for abbreviated trading sessions or delayed official closing prices.\n\nCurrent market probability is about 3.15%, suggesting traders assign a low chance to this outcome at present. The market runs from June 9, 2026 through July 1, 2026, reflecting the timing of a potential IPO month rather than the IPO itself.",307037.82888600003,{"id":410,"title":411,"slug":412,"category":8,"subcategory":37,"tags":413,"probability":414,"createdAt":415,"updatedAt":416,"resolutionDate":417,"description":418,"summary":419,"volume1wk":420,"featured":124},"481717","Fed Decision in September?","fed-decision-in-september-762",[37,30,32,33,35,34,36],2.55,"2026-05-30T10:43:09.482Z","2026-06-16T10:02:02.083Z","2026-09-16T00:00:00.000Z","The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.\n\nThis market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting.\n\nIf the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut\u002Fincrease of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https:\u002F\u002Fwww.federalreserve.gov\u002Fmonetarypolicy\u002Ffomccalendars.htm.\n\nThe level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https:\u002F\u002Fwww.federalreserve.gov\u002Fmonetarypolicy\u002Fopenmarket.htm.\n\nThis market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the \"No change\" bracket.","Fed Decision in September? is a Finance prediction market centered on the Federal Reserve’s September 2026 FOMC meeting and the expected change in the upper bound of the federal funds target range. Traders are forecasting whether the Fed will raise, cut, or leave rates unchanged, with the market resolving to the basis-point change versus the level in place before the September meeting. If the adjustment is not one of the listed options, it will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points. The resolution source is the FOMC statement scheduled for September 15-16, 2026, or the Federal Reserve’s official rate publication. As of the latest data, the market probability is about 1.6%, indicating very low odds for the tracked outcome. That makes this an event prediction closely watched by participants following Fed rates, Jerome Powell, economic policy, and broader market sentiment on monetary policy. The prediction market may resolve as soon as the September FOMC statement is released, and if no statement appears by the next scheduled meeting deadline, it will settle to “No change.”",138619.03081999999,{"id":422,"title":423,"slug":424,"category":8,"subcategory":401,"tags":425,"probability":314,"createdAt":426,"updatedAt":427,"resolutionDate":428,"description":429,"summary":430,"volume1wk":431,"featured":124},"575308","SpaceX IPO: Officially added to S&P 500 in 2026?","spacex-ipo-officially-added-to-sp-500-in-2026-20260608202834697",[401,14,11,16,116,9,114,98,12,97],"2026-06-16T10:08:32.391Z","2026-06-16T10:02:01.734Z","2027-01-01T04:59:00.000Z","The S&P 500 undergoes quarterly reconstitution on the third Friday of March, June, September, and December.\n\nThis market will resolve to \"Yes\" if S&P Global Inc. announces that SpaceX will be added to the S&P 500 index by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nAn announcement from S&P will qualify for a \"Yes\" resolution, regardless of whether the listed company has actually been added to the S&P 500 index by the resolution date.\n\nThe primary resolution source will be official announcements from S&P Global Inc. (https:\u002F\u002Fwww.spglobal.com\u002Fen\u002Fpress\u002Fpress-release).","SpaceX IPO: Officially added to S&P 500 in 2026? is a finance prediction market focused on whether S&P Global Inc. will announce that SpaceX is being added to the S&P 500 index by December 31, 2026. The market resolves to Yes if S&P makes an official announcement, even if the index change itself has not fully taken effect by the deadline. That makes the event a clear forecast on an expected outcome tied to S&P 500 quarterly reconstitution and SpaceX’s potential transition into a public-market benchmark.\n\nThe listing sits at the intersection of finance, IPOs, tech, and space, with Elon Musk’s SpaceX attracting close attention from traders watching market sentiment around a possible inclusion. Current market probability is about 7.5%, indicating low but nonzero odds that the announcement happens before year-end. The start date is June 9, 2026, and the market closes for resolution on January 1, 2027, based on the December 31, 2026 deadline. As a prediction market, it reflects event prediction and trader expectations rather than a certainty.",10715.30307,{"id":433,"title":434,"slug":435,"category":8,"subcategory":9,"tags":436,"probability":18,"createdAt":438,"updatedAt":439,"resolutionDate":440,"description":441,"summary":442,"volume1wk":443,"featured":124},"575319","SpaceX IPO: Who will be on-stage at the Bell Ceremony?","spacex-ipo-who-will-be-on-stage-at-the-bell-ceremony-20260609030156949",[9,97,16,11,401,14,437,98,12],"Culture","2026-06-16T10:08:08.327Z","2026-06-16T10:02:00.643Z","2026-06-13T03:59:00.000Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if listed individual is on-stage at a bell ceremony on SpaceX’s first day of trading. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf no SpaceX IPO or qualifying bell ceremony occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"No\". \n\nBell-ringing ceremonies which take place outside of SpaceX's first day of trading will not be considered. This market will resolve to \"No\" if SpaceX's IPO and first day of trading occur with no qualifying bell ceremony.\n\nA qualifying ceremony must be in-person at the venue of SpaceX's primary exchange. The purpose of the ceremony must be to commemorate the opening or closing of the regular trading session of SpaceX’s primary exchange on SpaceX's first day of trading.\n\nBeing “on-stage” is defined as being in physical attendance and on the primary stage of the venue during any part of the event. Any virtual or off-stage appearances (e.g., as a member of the audience) will not count.\n\nThe primary resolution source will be photo and video; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.","SpaceX IPO: Who will be on-stage at the Bell Ceremony? is a Finance prediction market asking which listed individual, if any, will appear on the primary stage during SpaceX’s bell ceremony on the company’s first day of trading. The forecast is narrowly defined: the person must be physically present on-stage at an in-person ceremony held at the venue of SpaceX’s primary exchange, and the event must commemorate the opening or closing of the regular trading session. Off-stage or virtual appearances do not count, and if SpaceX does not complete an IPO with a qualifying bell ceremony by December 31, 2027, the market resolves to No. This makes the event relevant to traders watching Elon Musk, SpaceX, IPO timing, and broader Big Tech sentiment. Current market probability is not provided in the data, but the prediction market structure reflects ongoing interest in the expected outcome and associated odds around a potential SpaceX public listing. The market runs from June 9, 2026 through June 13, 2026 on the listed trading window, with resolution based primarily on photo and video evidence, or credible reporting if needed.",56627.707757000004,{"id":445,"title":252,"slug":446,"category":8,"subcategory":13,"tags":447,"probability":355,"createdAt":448,"updatedAt":449,"resolutionDate":222,"description":450,"summary":451,"volume1wk":452,"featured":124},"48300","anthropic-ipo-closing-market-cap",[13,16,9,12,64,11,14,67],"2026-05-30T10:43:05.995Z","2026-06-16T10:01:59.632Z","This market will resolve based on Anthropic's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.\n\nIf no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"No IPO by June 30, 2026\".\n\nMarket capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.\n\nIf the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nResolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.\n\nIn the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Anthropic’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.","Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap is a finance prediction market that asks traders to forecast Anthropic’s market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading. The event centers on whether the AI company completes an initial public offering and, if so, what valuation bracket it lands in based on the official first-day closing price and shares outstanding. If Anthropic does not go public by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to “No IPO by June 30, 2026.”\n\nThis event matters because Anthropic is one of the most closely watched AI companies, and its IPO would be a key signal for broader tech and Big Tech market sentiment. Current market probability is about 15%, suggesting traders see a relatively low but still meaningful chance of an IPO-related resolution before the deadline. The forecast relies on official exchange data, with fallback sourcing if the primary listing page does not show the relevant figure. The market opened on September 23, 2025 and runs through June 30, 2026, making it a long-dated event prediction tied to AI, IPOs, and finance.",30413.322926000004,{"id":454,"title":455,"slug":456,"category":8,"subcategory":36,"tags":457,"probability":181,"createdAt":459,"updatedAt":460,"resolutionDate":21,"description":461,"summary":462,"volume1wk":463,"featured":124},"79123","How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?","how-low-will-10-year-treasury-yield-get-before-2027",[36,15,14,33,458,35],"Trump","2026-05-30T10:43:08.835Z","2026-06-16T10:01:59.577Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under \"Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates\" for the column \"10 Yr\" (see: https:\u002F\u002Fhome.treasury.gov\u002Fresource-center\u002Fdata-chart-center\u002Finterest-rates\u002FTextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).\n","How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027? is a finance prediction market tracking the lowest level reached by the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield before the end of 2026. The market resolves to Yes if the Treasury’s Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates show the 10 Yr yield below the specified threshold at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026; otherwise it resolves No. Because the 10-year yield is a key benchmark for borrowing costs, mortgage rates, inflation expectations, and broader fixed-income pricing, traders use this event to forecast rate direction and market sentiment around the U.S. economy and Federal Reserve policy. The resolution source is the U.S. Department of the Treasury, which makes the outcome measurable and tied to official data rather than opinion. As of the latest market data, the event shows a 100% probability, indicating the current odds are fully priced toward the listed outcome, though prediction market probabilities can change as conditions shift. Relevant tags include Economy, Business, Finance, Fed Rates, Trump, and Politics, reflecting the market’s focus on macroeconomic and policy-driven forces.",30148.82088,{"id":465,"title":466,"slug":467,"category":8,"subcategory":33,"tags":468,"probability":470,"createdAt":471,"updatedAt":472,"resolutionDate":473,"description":474,"summary":475,"volume1wk":476,"featured":124},"159954","What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?","what-will-the-fed-rate-be-at-the-end-of-2026",[33,30,34,35,458,32,469],"Fed Chair",11.3,"2026-06-16T10:08:22.020Z","2026-06-16T10:01:58.094Z","2026-12-09T00:00:00.000Z","The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.\n\nThis market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.\n\nThe upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https:\u002F\u002Fwww.federalreserve.gov\u002Fmonetarypolicy\u002Fopenmarket.htm).","What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026? is a finance prediction market asking traders to forecast the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 FOMC meeting. The market resolves using official Federal Reserve information, with the key decision expected from the Federal Open Market Committee’s December 8-9, 2026 meeting. If no December decision is released by December 31, 2026, the market will use the rate in effect at that time. Resolution rounds the upper bound to the nearest 25 basis points, following the market’s stated rules. \n\nThis event matters because the fed rate is a central indicator for U.S. monetary policy, inflation expectations, borrowing costs, and broader economic conditions. It also reflects market sentiment around the policy path set by Jerome Powell and the Fed, making it relevant to Fed Rates, Economic Policy, and political headlines involving the central bank. Current market probability is around 11.3%, indicating relatively low odds for the specific outcome currently favored by traders. As a long-dated forecast, the event captures changing event prediction odds as new economic data and FOMC signals emerge.",20406.236462,{"id":478,"title":479,"slug":480,"category":8,"subcategory":14,"tags":481,"probability":486,"createdAt":487,"updatedAt":488,"resolutionDate":489,"description":490,"summary":491,"volume1wk":492,"featured":124},"597442","SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 16?","spy-up-or-down-on-june-16-2026",[14,132,131,482,483,484,82,83,84,485,244,114],"Daily","Up or Down","Daily-Close","Equity Daily Pyth",51,"2026-06-16T10:08:16.576Z","2026-06-16T10:01:56.664Z","2026-06-16T20:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to \"Up\" if the Close price for S&P 500 (SPY) on June 16, 2026 is higher than the Close price for S&P 500 (SPY) on the most recent prior trading day.\n\nThis market will resolve to \"Down\" if the Close price for S&P 500 (SPY) on June 16, 2026 is lower than the Close price for S&P 500 (SPY) on the most recent prior trading day.\n\nE.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its most recent closing price, unless that Friday were a market holiday, in which case it would refer to Thursday, or the next most recent trading day.\n\nIf the two specified closing prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding.\n\nIf S&P 500 (SPY) does not trade at all during the regular session, the market will resolve 50-50.\n\nFor a standard full trading session, the closing price refers to the Pyth \"Close\" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange.\n\nIf either of the relevant days has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle corresponding to the end of regular trading hours on the primary exchange, the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange as the effective closing price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the official closing price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine the closing price for that day.\n\nOnly prices achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange on which the listed security trades (typically 9:30 AM – 4:00 PM ET) will be considered.\n\nIn the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed security during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the \"Close\" values for the relevant 1-minute candle available at https:\u002F\u002Fpythdata.app\u002Fexplore\u002FEquity.US.SPY%2FUSD. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the \"t=\" parameter. Any timestamp within the listed market time frame may be used to view the relevant candle data (e.g., https:\u002F\u002Fpythdata.app\u002Fexplore\u002FEquity.US.SPY%2FUSD?t=1773432000).","SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 16? is a finance prediction market asking whether the S&P 500 ETF will close higher or lower on June 16, 2026 than it did on the most recent prior trading day. Traders in this event are forecasting the direction of SPY based on the official Pyth close price, using regular-session data only. If the two closes are equal, the market resolves 50-50, and the same outcome applies if SPY does not trade during the session.\n\nThis event matters because SPY is a widely watched proxy for the broader U.S. equity market, so its daily move often reflects short-term market sentiment, macroeconomic expectations, and trader positioning. The forecast is currently close to balanced, with implied market probability at about 51% for one side of the trade, indicating only a slight edge in the current odds. The market opens on June 15, 2026 and is scheduled to end at 4:00 PM ET on June 16, 2026, when the relevant closing price will be determined.",29276.82087499999,{"id":494,"title":495,"slug":496,"category":8,"subcategory":483,"tags":497,"probability":486,"createdAt":498,"updatedAt":499,"resolutionDate":489,"description":500,"summary":501,"volume1wk":502,"featured":124},"597398","S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 16?","spx-up-or-down-on-june-16-2026",[483,113,111,482,14,82,484],"2026-06-16T10:08:13.914Z","2026-06-16T10:01:54.003Z","This market will resolve to \"Up\" if the official S&P 500 Index closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on Tuesday, June 16, 2026 is higher than the official S&P 500 Index closing price for SPX on the most recent prior trading day.\n\nThis market will resolve to \"Down\" if the official S&P 500 Index closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on Tuesday, June 16, 2026 is lower than the official S&P 500 Index closing price for SPX on the most recent prior trading day.\n\nE.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its most recent closing price, unless that Friday were a market holiday, in which case it would refer to Thursday, or the next most recent trading day.\n\nIf the two specified closing prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. Note that all figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding.\n\nIf SPX does not trade at all during the regular session, the market will resolve 50-50.\n\nIf either of the relevant days are shortened (for example, due to a market holiday schedule), the official closing price published by S&P 500 Index for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.\n\nIf either of the relevant days have no official closing price (for example, due to a trading halt into the market close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Wall Street Journal, specifically the Close values published by the WSJ under \"Historical Prices\".\n\nUS: https:\u002F\u002Fwww.wsj.com\u002Fmarket-data\u002Fstocks\nEMEA: https:\u002F\u002Fwww.wsj.com\u002Fmarket-data\u002Fstocks\u002Femea \nASIA: https:\u002F\u002Fwww.wsj.com\u002Fmarket-data\u002Fstocks\u002Fasia","S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 16? is a finance prediction market that asks whether the S&P 500 Index will close higher or lower on Tuesday, June 16, 2026, compared with the most recent prior trading day. The forecast is based on the official S&P 500 closing price published by the Wall Street Journal’s historical prices data, with special resolution rules for holidays, shortened sessions, or missing closes. If the index closes at exactly the same level, the market resolves 50-50. If SPX does not trade during the regular session, it also resolves 50-50. This event matters because it reflects short-term market sentiment on the direction of U.S. equities at the daily close. Traders use this kind of event prediction to express views on near-term index movement rather than longer-term fundamentals. As of the latest update, the market probability is 51% for an “Up” outcome, suggesting a slight edge in favor of a higher close, though the odds remain close to balanced. The market opens on June 15, 2026 and is scheduled to end on June 16, 2026 at 20:00 UTC.",35258.063725999986,{"id":504,"title":505,"slug":506,"category":8,"subcategory":14,"tags":507,"probability":181,"createdAt":509,"updatedAt":510,"resolutionDate":172,"description":505,"summary":511,"volume1wk":512,"featured":124},"522291","What will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit in June 2026?","what-price-will-ewy-hit-in-june-2026",[14,80,81,82,83,84,131,132,508],"EWY","2026-06-16T10:08:22.760Z","2026-06-16T10:01:53.861Z","What will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit in June 2026? is a finance prediction market focused on the monthly price range for the iShares MSCI South Korea ETF, a widely followed equity ETF tied to South Korean stocks. Traders in this event are forecasting the expected outcome for EWY during the June 2026 window, with the market tracking which price level the fund will reach before the event closes. The market opens on May 25, 2026 and runs through July 1, 2026, giving participants a defined period to assess market sentiment around South Korea equities, macroeconomic conditions, and ETF price action. As a hit-price event, the result depends on whether EWY reaches the specified level during the month rather than on a final closing value alone. Current market probability is shown at 100%, which reflects the active listing status on the prediction market, though actual odds may still change as traders update the forecast. This event is relevant for users following finance, stocks, equities, and ETF-based event prediction markets.",19628.278500999997,{"id":514,"title":515,"slug":516,"category":8,"subcategory":82,"tags":517,"probability":518,"createdAt":519,"updatedAt":520,"resolutionDate":370,"description":521,"summary":522,"volume1wk":523,"featured":124},"125860","What will Gold (GC) settle at in June?","gc-settle-jun-2026",[82,85,365,14,367],1.15,"2026-05-30T10:43:12.175Z","2026-06-16T10:01:51.824Z","This market will resolve according to the official CME settlement price for the Active Month of Gold futures on the final trading day of June 2026.\n\nIf the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nIf the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official settlement price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no settlement price is published for that session, the market will use the most recent published settlement for the Active Month during June.\n\nFor CME Gold (GC) futures contracts, the Active Month is the nearest of CME's designated delivery-cycle months (February, April, June, August, October, December) that is not the spot month. The Active Month changes automatically on the contract's First Position Date, at which point the next eligible contract month becomes the Active Month.\n\nOnly the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.\n\nNote that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.\n\nOnly days during June on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.\n\nThis market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for the relevant trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily \"Settlement\" price for the Active Month of Gold (GC) futures.","What will Gold (GC) settle at in June? is a finance prediction market tied to the official CME Group settlement price for the active month of COMEX Gold futures on the final trading day of June 2026. Traders are forecasting the CME-published daily settlement for Gold (GC), using only the active month’s official settlement price rather than intraday highs, lows, bids, offers, or last trade. That makes this an event prediction based on the exchange’s published methodology, not on spot gold quotes or estimates.\n\nThe market resolves from the CME settlement page, and if June 2026 ends on a shortened session, the official settlement for that session still counts. If no settlement is published that day, the most recent published June settlement is used. The contract’s active month can shift based on CME’s delivery cycle, which is relevant for how the forecast is interpreted.\n\nCurrent market probability is 2.1%, suggesting traders see this outcome as relatively unlikely at the time of the latest update. The event runs through June 30, 2026, when the final resolution price is expected to be known.",35017.911798,{"id":525,"title":526,"slug":527,"category":8,"subcategory":82,"tags":528,"probability":531,"createdAt":532,"updatedAt":533,"resolutionDate":370,"description":534,"summary":535,"volume1wk":536,"featured":124},"125870","What will Silver (SI) settle at in June?","si-settle-jun-2026",[82,85,529,530,14],"COMEX Silver Futures","Silver",1.4,"2026-05-30T10:43:16.538Z","2026-06-16T10:01:42.072Z","This market will resolve according to the official CME settlement price for the Active Month of Silver futures on the final trading day of June 2026.\n\nIf the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nIf the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official settlement price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no settlement price is published for that session, the market will use the most recent published settlement for the Active Month during June.\n\nFor CME Silver (SI) futures contracts, the Active Month is the nearest of CME's designated delivery-cycle months (March, May, July, September, December) that is not the spot month. The Active Month becomes a non-active month effective on its First Position Date, at which point the next eligible contract month becomes the Active Month.\n\nOnly the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.\n\nNote that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.\n\nOnly days during June on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.\n\nThis market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for the relevant trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily \"Settlement\" price for the Active Month of Silver (SI) futures.","What will Silver (SI) settle at in June? is a finance prediction market focused on the official CME settlement price for the active month of COMEX Silver futures on the final trading day of June 2026. Traders are forecasting which settlement range Silver will land in, using only the first-published CME Group settlement price for the relevant active month; intraday prices, bids, offers, and later corrections do not count. The market resolves from the CME settlement page, with shortened sessions and market holidays handled according to the rules in the listing.\n\nThis event matters because CME Silver settlement prices are a key reference point for commodities traders and market watchers following silver futures pricing. The current market probability is about 2.55%, indicating relatively low odds for the forecasted outcome at the time of this snapshot. The prediction market remains active through the June 2026 expiration window, with resolution tied to the official settlement published for the final eligible trading day in June. As a financial forecast, it reflects market sentiment around Silver (SI), COMEX Silver Futures, and the expected outcome for the month-end settlement.",41934.843515,{"id":538,"title":539,"slug":540,"category":8,"subcategory":14,"tags":541,"probability":181,"createdAt":544,"updatedAt":545,"resolutionDate":148,"description":546,"summary":547,"volume1wk":548,"featured":124},"500558","Will SpaceX's valuation hit __ by June 30?","will-spacexs-valuation-hit-by-june-30",[14,62,97,9,12,542,13,543,98],"aerospace","SpaxeX","2026-05-30T10:43:00.697Z","2026-06-16T10:01:41.925Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if SpaceX's private market valuation, as measured by the NPM Price reported by Nasdaq Private Market, LLC (NPM) for any date between market creation and June 30, 2026, reaches or exceeds the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nNPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day.\n\nIf NPM has not published relevant data for all business dates in the specified period by 1:00 PM ET on July 1, 2026, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on July 4, 2026. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the data available.\n\nIf NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published for the period prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as any applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing.\n\nIf the company completes an IPO or direct listing before the end of the specified period, this market will consider, in addition to the relevant NPM valuations published between market creation and the IPO or direct listing date, the valuation implied by the official IPO or direct listing price, and the company's public market capitalization between the IPO or direct listing date and the end of the specified period.\n\nPublic market capitalization will be determined using the highest\u002Flowest official regular-hours trading price published for the company's primary listed common equity on its primary exchange for any trading day during the specified period, multiplied by the company's total outstanding common shares at the relevant time.\n\nIf the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.\n\nIf the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, only NPM valuations and applicable public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is NPM data published here: (https:\u002F\u002Ffe.secondmarket.com\u002Fcompanies\u002Fcompany-5bc8aa2b-22b5-48cc-b54a-1310145b0a86\u002Fdata?return_url=https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket.com\u002Ffinance\u002Fprivates). The resolution source for any period following an IPO, direct listing, or relevant corporate action, will be official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.\n\nRevisions to previously published NPM data made after their initial release will not be considered, unless made to correct clearly erroneous data.","Will SpaceX's valuation hit __ by June 30? is a finance prediction market focused on whether SpaceX’s private-market valuation will reach or exceed a specified threshold before the end of the forecast window. The market resolves using Nasdaq Private Market (NPM) Price data, which is published on trading days and updated once daily, with the relevant period running from market creation through June 30, 2026. If SpaceX completes an IPO or direct listing during that period, the resolution can also incorporate the implied public valuation and subsequent market capitalization data.\n\nThis event matters because SpaceX is one of the most closely watched private technology and aerospace companies, and its valuation is often treated as a signal of broader market sentiment around Elon Musk-led ventures, privates, AI-adjacent tech, and aerospace innovation. Traders in this prediction market are forecasting the expected outcome based on private-market pricing, corporate events, and any transition to public trading.\n\nCurrent market probability is about 95%, indicating strong odds that the valuation will hit the listed level before the deadline, though the result still depends on the official reference data and final resolution rules.",766358.1211660001,{"id":550,"title":551,"slug":552,"category":8,"subcategory":15,"tags":553,"probability":554,"createdAt":555,"updatedAt":556,"resolutionDate":21,"description":557,"summary":558,"volume1wk":559,"featured":124},"51456","How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?","how-many-fed-rate-cuts-in-2026",[15,33,32,30,34,36,14,255],68.65,"2026-05-30T10:42:45.795Z","2026-06-16T10:01:40.617Z","This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).\n\nEmergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.\n\nFor example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).\n\nThis market will resolve early to \"No\" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.\n\nNote that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https:\u002F\u002Fwww.federalreserve.gov\u002Fmonetarypolicy\u002Ffomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https:\u002F\u002Fwww.federalreserve.gov\u002Fmonetarypolicy\u002Fopenmarket.htm.","How many Fed rate cuts in 2026? is a finance prediction market tracking the Federal Reserve’s policy path over the full 2026 calendar year. Traders are forecasting the total number of 25-basis-point rate cuts the Fed will make, including cuts announced at scheduled FOMC meetings and any emergency rate cuts outside the regular calendar. The market resolves based on official Federal Reserve and FOMC statements, with the final deadline set for December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET to capture any late-year action. In practical terms, a 50-basis-point cut would count as two cuts, while even a 1- to 24-basis-point reduction counts as one. This event matters because Fed rate cuts are a major signal for U.S. monetary policy, inflation expectations, and broader economic conditions, making it a closely watched economic policy forecast. Current market probability is 67.25%, suggesting traders currently expect a meaningful chance of the specified outcome, though the final odds can shift as the year progresses and new FOMC decisions are announced.",2139440.819947004,{"id":561,"title":562,"slug":563,"category":8,"subcategory":14,"tags":564,"probability":565,"createdAt":566,"updatedAt":567,"resolutionDate":222,"description":568,"summary":569,"volume1wk":570,"featured":124},"304031","Will Elon Musk buy OnlyFans?","will-elon-musk-buy-onlyfans",[14,97,437,49,9],0.55,"2026-05-30T10:43:17.903Z","2026-06-16T10:01:38.377Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if it is officially announced that Elon Musk, either personally or through an entity, will be, has been, or is entering into an agreement to acquire OnlyFans (or its parent company) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA qualifying acquisition or acquisition announcement must include the acquisition of a controlling interest in OnlyFans (or its parent company) by Elon Musk, either personally or through an entity. A \"controlling interest\" is defined as an ownership stake sufficient to control the company's strategic decisions, typically more than 50% of equity, or equivalent control via voting rights, governance rights, board control, or other mechanisms. Transactions or investments that do not result in a transfer of controlling interest, such as minority stake purchases, will not count.\n\nAn announcement of a qualifying acquisition by Elon Musk, OnlyFans, or their parent entities will qualify for a \"Yes\" resolution, regardless of whether the announced acquisition actually occurs.\n\nThe entity entering into the agreement does not need to be controlled by Elon Musk; his involvement as a partial owner, investor, or similar role will qualify only if the transaction results in a controlling interest as defined above.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Elon Musk and\u002For OnlyFans, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.","Will Elon Musk buy OnlyFans? is a finance prediction market asking whether Musk, personally or through an entity, will officially announce or enter into an agreement to acquire OnlyFans or its parent company by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The event focuses on a qualifying acquisition of a controlling interest, meaning a stake large enough to direct the company’s strategic decisions. Minority investments or non-controlling deals do not count under the market rules. This matters because any official acquisition announcement from Elon Musk, OnlyFans, or their parent entities would resolve the forecast to Yes even if the transaction is not ultimately completed. As a result, traders are watching market sentiment around acquisition odds, tech and culture news, and any credible reporting tied to Musk or OnlyFans. Current market probability is about 85%, suggesting participants currently see a high chance of a Yes outcome. The market remains active through the June 30, 2026 deadline, making timing and source verification central to event prediction and resolution.",702524.7250940002,{"id":572,"title":573,"slug":574,"category":8,"subcategory":14,"tags":575,"probability":576,"createdAt":577,"updatedAt":578,"resolutionDate":172,"description":579,"summary":580,"volume1wk":581,"featured":124},"522293","What will Silver (XAGUSD) hit in June 2026?","what-price-will-xagusd-hit-in-june-2026",[14,80,81,82,83,84,85,530],1.2,"2026-06-16T10:08:08.206Z","2026-06-16T10:01:37.419Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if, at any point after market creation and during a trading session of June 2026, any 1-minute candle for Silver (XAGUSD) has a final \"High\" or \"Low\" price equal to or beyond (above for ↑ High Prices, below for ↓ Low Prices) the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nOnly prices achieved during an applicable trading session of the specified timeframe’s business days will be considered. The trading session for a given business day typically begins at 6:00 PM ET on the prior calendar date. Under the standard schedule, trading is open from 6:00:00 PM ET Sunday through 5:00:00 PM ET Friday, with a daily break from 5:00:00 PM ET to 6:00:00 PM ET, except where modified by holiday or special-session hours.\n\nPrices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding.\n\nIf Silver (XAGUSD) does not trade at all during the listed time frame, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nIn the event of a contract specification change, feed change, or similar structural modification affecting the market during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is Pyth — specifically, the Silver (XAGUSD) \"High\" and \"Low\" prices available at https:\u002F\u002Fpythdata.app\u002Fexplore\u002FMetal.XAG%2FUSD, with the chart settings configured for 1-minute candles.\n\nHistorical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the \"t=\" parameter.\n\nIf the relevant Pyth data is unavailable due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption that prevents verification of the required 1-minute candle data, the official daily high\u002Flow price published for the relevant CME COMEX futures contract for the underlying metal—COMEX Silver Futures (SI)—may be used to determine whether the listed price was reached during the applicable trading session.","What will Silver (XAGUSD) hit in June 2026? is a finance prediction market focused on whether silver’s spot price will reach one of the listed levels at any point during the June 2026 trading window. The market resolves to Yes if a 1-minute candle for Silver (XAGUSD) records a final High or Low price at or beyond the target level during an applicable trading session; otherwise it resolves to No. Because the event tracks intramonth price action rather than a month-end close, traders are forecasting short-term commodity volatility as well as broader market sentiment around precious metals. The relevant timeframe runs from market creation through the end of June 2026, with standard trading sessions generally opening at 6:00 PM ET on Sunday and closing at 5:00 PM ET on Friday, excluding daily breaks and holiday adjustments. The resolution source is Pyth data for Silver (XAGUSD), with COMEX Silver Futures (SI) used if needed. Current market probability is about 1.2%, suggesting traders see a relatively low chance that silver will hit the specified price level during the period.",57345.22948600001,{"id":583,"title":584,"slug":585,"category":8,"subcategory":14,"tags":586,"probability":587,"createdAt":588,"updatedAt":589,"resolutionDate":138,"description":584,"summary":590,"volume1wk":591,"featured":124},"588629","What will S&P 500 (SPY) hit Week of June 15 2026?","will-spy-hit-week-of-june-15-2026",[14,130,81,82,83,84,131,132,244,168],6.8,"2026-06-16T10:08:22.845Z","2026-06-16T10:01:37.019Z","What will S&P 500 (SPY) hit Week of June 15 2026? is a finance prediction market focused on the weekly price range or “hit price” outcome for the SPY ETF, which tracks the S&P 500 index. Traders in this event are forecasting where SPY will trade during the June 15, 2026 week, making it a useful gauge of market sentiment around U.S. equities and broader stock market direction. The market opened on June 12, 2026 and is scheduled to run until June 19, 2026, giving participants a defined window to price in expected moves. Current market probability is 6.8%, suggesting the listed outcome is viewed as relatively unlikely but still actively tracked by traders. As a weekly finance forecast, the event reflects expectations for volatility, index performance, and near-term momentum in large-cap stocks. For prediction market participants, this is an event prediction centered on the expected outcome for SPY rather than a directional up-or-down call, which makes it relevant for users following stocks, equities, and market odds.",19555.412535,{"id":593,"title":594,"slug":595,"category":8,"subcategory":14,"tags":596,"probability":597,"createdAt":598,"updatedAt":599,"resolutionDate":271,"description":594,"summary":600,"volume1wk":601,"featured":124},"588633","What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit Week of June 15 2026?","will-wti-hit-week-of-june-15-2026",[14,130,81,82,83,84,85,86,168],2.6,"2026-06-16T10:08:28.056Z","2026-06-16T10:01:36.636Z","What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit Week of June 15 2026? is a finance prediction market focused on the weekly high price outcome for West Texas Intermediate crude oil during the June 15, 2026 trading week. Traders are forecasting whether WTI will reach a specific price level before the event closes on June 19, 2026, making it a short-horizon event prediction tied to commodity market movement. The market sits within the Finance category and reflects broader interest in oil, commodities, and weekly hit price contracts. As of the latest update, the market probability is about 2.6%, suggesting traders currently see this outcome as relatively unlikely, though not impossible. Market sentiment in this type of forecast can shift quickly with changes in crude supply, demand expectations, geopolitical developments, and price volatility. Because the event is time-bound and linked to live WTI pricing, it serves as a concise snapshot of current odds and market expectations for oil traders and prediction market participants.",14448.970517,{"id":603,"title":604,"slug":605,"category":8,"subcategory":529,"tags":606,"probability":607,"createdAt":608,"updatedAt":609,"resolutionDate":370,"description":610,"summary":611,"volume1wk":612,"featured":124},"125871","Will Silver (SI) hit__ by end of June?","si-hit-jun-2026",[529,85,82,530,14],0.4,"2026-05-30T10:42:49.929Z","2026-06-16T10:01:28.260Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if, on any trading day, the official CME settlement price for the Active Month (front month) of Silver (SI) futures is equal to or above the listed price by the final trading day of June 2026. Otherwise, the market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor CME Silver (SI) futures contracts, the Active Month is the nearest of CME's designated delivery-cycle months (March, May, July, September, December) that is not the spot month. The Active Month becomes a non-active month effective on its First Position Date, at which point the next eligible contract month becomes the Active Month.\n\nOnly the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.\n\nNote that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.\n\nOnly days on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.\n\nThis market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for that trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily \"Settlement\" price for the Active Month of Silver (SI) futures.","Will Silver (SI) hit__ by end of June? is a finance prediction market focused on whether the CME settlement price for the Active Month of Silver futures will reach or exceed a specified level on any trading day before the final trading day of June 2026. The market resolves based only on the official CME Group daily settlement price for the front-month SI contract, not intraday highs, lows, or last traded prices. That makes the event a precise forecast tied to COMEX Silver Futures pricing methodology rather than broader spot-silver moves. The start date is December 26, 2025, and the outcome deadline is June 30, 2026, when the market is expected to resolve according to the final published settlement data. Traders in this prediction market are effectively pricing the odds that silver can reach the target level during the June 2026 window. Current market probability is around 1.05%, suggesting very low market sentiment for a Yes outcome, though probabilities can change as commodity conditions shift. This event is relevant to participants following commodities, silver, and CME futures because the expected outcome depends on the official settlement process used for Silver (SI) contracts.",534646.464116,{"id":614,"title":615,"slug":616,"category":8,"subcategory":9,"tags":617,"probability":135,"createdAt":621,"updatedAt":622,"resolutionDate":21,"description":623,"summary":624,"volume1wk":625,"featured":124},"79067","Will MicroStrategy announce bankruptcy before 2027?","will-microstrategy-announce-bankruptcy-before-2027",[9,15,14,618,619,620],"Crypto","Bitcoin","Corporate Financials","2026-06-16T10:08:31.593Z","2026-06-16T10:01:27.727Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if MicroStrategy announces that it will file for bankruptcy or has filed for bankruptcy of any variety by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.\n\nAn announcement will suffice for a \"Yes\" resolution, regardless of if or when the actual filing occurs.\n\nThe announcement must be made through any of their official or verified channels, as a recorded or written statement by their CEO, legal representation, or other individual or team which officially represents MicroStrategy.\n\nA definitive consensus of credible reporting may also be used.","Will MicroStrategy announce bankruptcy before 2027? is a finance prediction market focused on whether MicroStrategy, the software and Bitcoin-linked corporate treasury company, will publicly announce that it will file for bankruptcy or has already filed by December 31, 2026. The forecast is based on an official announcement from the company, its CEO, legal representatives, or another verified channel, and could also resolve on the basis of definitive credible reporting. As a corporate financials event with strong ties to crypto and Bitcoin sentiment, it reflects how traders are pricing the company’s balance-sheet risk and broader market expectations around its business model. The market currently implies about a 6.5% probability of a bankruptcy announcement, suggesting low but nonzero odds in the prediction market. With the event open through the end of 2026, it will remain relevant to investors watching MicroStrategy’s finances, debt profile, and market sentiment over time.",11441.361553,{"id":627,"title":628,"slug":629,"category":8,"subcategory":14,"tags":630,"probability":607,"createdAt":631,"updatedAt":632,"resolutionDate":148,"description":633,"summary":634,"volume1wk":635,"featured":124},"503134","2nd largest private company end of June?","2nd-largest-private-company-end-of-june",[14,62,12,9,13],"2026-06-16T10:08:27.270Z","2026-06-16T10:01:23.612Z","This market will resolve to the listed company with the second largest private market valuation on June 30, 2026. \n\nNPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day.\n\nIf NPM has not published relevant data for the specified date by 1:00 PM ET on July 1, 2026, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on July 4, 2026. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the data available.\n\nIf NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the specified date, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing.\n\nIf a company completes an IPO or direct listing before the specified date, this market will resolve based on its final NPM valuation published between market creation and the IPO or direct listing date, as this market is based on private market valuations only.\n\nIf a listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.\n\nIf a listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, only the NPM valuation achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.\n\nIf two or more companies are tied for the second highest valuation, the markets will resolve in favor of the company that achieved that valuation first. If the valuations were achieved on the same day, the market will resolve in favor of the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically.\n\nRevisions to previously published NPM data made after their initial release will not be considered, unless made to correct clearly erroneous data.\n\nThe resolution sources for this market are:\nhttps:\u002F\u002Ffe.secondmarket.com\u002Fcompanies\u002Fcompany-c62b8140-fdeb-428d-a9a6-d04eb3b24b49\u002Fdata?return_url=https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket.com\u002Ffinance\u002Fprivates\nhttps:\u002F\u002Ffe.secondmarket.com\u002Fcompanies\u002Fcompany-3e197763-4ff8-4d8c-bd1f-cc2792937757\u002Fdata?return_url=https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket.com\u002Ffinance\u002Fprivates\nhttps:\u002F\u002Ffe.secondmarket.com\u002Fcompanies\u002Fcompany-5e0e75a3-96d6-4893-8f23-9d9bac0ec1db\u002Fdata?return_url=https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket.com\u002Ffinance\u002Fprivates\nhttps:\u002F\u002Ffe.secondmarket.com\u002Fcompanies\u002Fcompany-53787f17-a704-47a9-895a-cb54833bdb1f\u002Fdata?return_url=https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket.com\u002Ffinance\u002Fprivates\nhttps:\u002F\u002Ffe.secondmarket.com\u002Fcompanies\u002Fcompany-625e5f47-7ff7-45c4-be95-0305665164bd\u002Fdata?return_url=https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket.com\u002Ffinance\u002Fprivates\nhttps:\u002F\u002Ffe.secondmarket.com\u002Fcompanies\u002Fcompany-ab5413cb-1c83-497e-b03e-2ed7ca70117d\u002Fdata?return_url=https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket.com\u002Ffinance\u002Fprivates\nhttps:\u002F\u002Ffe.secondmarket.com\u002Fcompanies\u002Fcompany-86eda4f2-01af-4275-9c70-0ff3c347c62b\u002Fdata?return_url=https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket.com\u002Ffinance\u002Fprivates\nhttps:\u002F\u002Ffe.secondmarket.com\u002Fcompanies\u002Fcompany-782c0a32-4727-4097-a40b-9a2602f243e7\u002Fdata?return_url=https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket.com\u002Ffinance\u002Fprivates\nhttps:\u002F\u002Ffe.secondmarket.com\u002Fcompanies\u002Fcompany-30839e0b-2730-4495-839f-1bf638fa9cca\u002Fdata?return_url=https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket.com\u002Ffinance\u002Fprivates\nhttps:\u002F\u002Ffe.secondmarket.com\u002Fcompanies\u002Fcompany-802a7f97-3625-4614-a13d-d999cf139330\u002Fdata?return_url=https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket.com\u002Ffinance\u002Fprivates\nhttps:\u002F\u002Ffe.secondmarket.com\u002Fcompanies\u002Fcompany-5bc8aa2b-22b5-48cc-b54a-1310145b0a86\u002Fdata?return_url=https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket.com\u002Ffinance\u002Fprivates\nhttps:\u002F\u002Ffe.secondmarket.com\u002Fcompanies\u002Fcompany-6edded11-6786-4392-9695-3cce6fda0de0\u002Fdata?return_url=https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket.com\u002Ffinance\u002Fprivates.","“2nd largest private company end of June?” is a Polymarket finance prediction market forecasting which listed company will have the second-highest private market valuation on June 30, 2026. The event focuses on private-company valuations tracked through NPM\u002FSecond Market data, with resolution based on the published valuation records available by the market’s July 1, 2026 update window, and fallback rules if data publication changes or a company goes public before the cutoff. In practice, traders are assessing market sentiment around major private tech and AI names, including companies in the broader Big Tech and Finance categories, to determine the expected outcome. The current market probability is around 40%, suggesting the market does not view a single outcome as dominant and that odds remain relatively balanced. Because NPM prices are published for trading days only, timing matters: the market is designed to capture valuation shifts up to the end-of-June deadline, then resolve using the latest eligible data. This event prediction is useful for following private-market rankings, valuation trends, and how prediction market participants price the relative strength of leading private companies.",15304.60328,{"id":637,"title":638,"slug":639,"category":8,"subcategory":14,"tags":640,"probability":531,"createdAt":641,"updatedAt":642,"resolutionDate":643,"description":638,"summary":644,"volume1wk":645,"featured":124},"597413","WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above ___ on June 16?","wti-closes-above-on-june-16-2026",[14,482,86,84,85,483,484,82,83],"2026-06-16T10:08:31.882Z","2026-06-16T10:01:19.236Z","2026-06-16T21:00:00.000Z","WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above ___ on June 16? is a finance prediction market on whether West Texas Intermediate crude will finish the trading day above the stated price level. The event is part of the daily-close commodities category and is focused on the June 16, 2026 settlement, with the market scheduled to resolve by 21:00 UTC on that date. Traders in this event are forecasting the expected outcome for WTI at the close rather than intraday price moves, making the listing relevant to oil market sentiment and short-term commodity expectations. Current market probability is about 1.4%, indicating that traders currently see a close above the threshold as unlikely, though not impossible. As with other prediction market contracts, the odds can shift quickly as new information, price action, and broader energy market conditions change before expiration. This event is useful for tracking how the market is pricing near-term direction in crude oil and for comparing forecast changes as the deadline approaches.",11139.652821,{"id":647,"title":648,"slug":649,"category":8,"subcategory":34,"tags":650,"probability":652,"createdAt":653,"updatedAt":654,"resolutionDate":473,"description":655,"summary":656,"volume1wk":657,"featured":124},"101936","Fed rate hike in 2026?","fed-rate-hike-in-2026",[34,30,32,36,33,651],"Macro Single",35.5,"2026-05-30T10:42:57.847Z","2026-06-16T10:01:10.832Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThis market may not resolve to \"No\" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https:\u002F\u002Fwww.federalreserve.gov\u002Fmonetarypolicy\u002Fopenmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.","Fed rate hike in 2026? is a finance prediction market asking whether the Federal Reserve will increase the upper bound of the target federal funds rate at any point in 2026. The market is focused on Fed monetary policy and Jerome Powell’s central bank decisions, with resolution tied to official Federal Reserve announcements and, if needed, credible reporting. It will resolve “Yes” if the Fed raises rates between January 1, 2026 and the December 8-9, 2026 meeting; otherwise it resolves “No” after the post-meeting decision is released. As of the latest data, traders are pricing in a 31.5% probability of a rate hike, suggesting market sentiment leans toward no change but leaves meaningful odds for an increase. The event matters because Fed rate decisions influence inflation expectations, borrowing costs, and broader macro conditions. For prediction market participants, this is a straightforward event prediction on the direction of U.S. interest rates before year-end 2026.",460215.36647799984,{"id":659,"title":660,"slug":661,"category":8,"subcategory":662,"tags":663,"probability":664,"createdAt":665,"updatedAt":666,"resolutionDate":222,"description":667,"summary":668,"volume1wk":669,"featured":124},"35747","Next James Bond actor?","next-james-bond-actor-635","Movies",[662,437],1.05,"2026-05-30T10:43:01.494Z","2026-06-16T10:01:09.864Z","This is a market on who will be the next actor to play James Bond in the upcoming film series.","\"Next James Bond actor?\" is a prediction market asking which actor will be chosen to play James Bond in the upcoming film series. The event focuses on the casting outcome for the long-running spy franchise, making it relevant to movie and culture watchers as well as traders following entertainment forecasts. Market participants are effectively pricing the probability that a specific actor will become the next official Bond, rather than predicting the film’s box office or release schedule. As of the latest update, the market assigns a probability of 3.3% to the current leading outcome, though that figure can change as market sentiment shifts and new information enters the forecast. The market opened on 2025-08-04 and is set to run until 2026-06-30, giving traders a defined window to adjust odds based on casting rumors, studio announcements, and other developments. With solid liquidity and active trading volume, this event prediction has drawn sustained attention within the prediction market category despite the inherently uncertain nature of James Bond casting.",31776.719523,{"id":671,"title":672,"slug":673,"category":8,"subcategory":14,"tags":674,"probability":268,"createdAt":676,"updatedAt":677,"resolutionDate":172,"description":672,"summary":678,"volume1wk":679,"featured":124},"522284","What will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit in June 2026?","what-price-will-pltr-hit-in-june-2026",[14,80,81,82,83,84,131,132,675],"PLTR","2026-06-16T10:08:24.854Z","2026-06-16T10:01:08.767Z","What will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit in June 2026? is a finance prediction market asking traders to forecast the price level PLTR will reach during the month of June 2026. The event is focused on Palantir, the U.S. equities and stocks company listed under the PLTR ticker, and the outcome depends on where the share price trades within the market’s specified range before the event ends. With the prediction window running from May 25, 2026 through July 1, 2026, market participants are watching Palantir’s price action, broader sentiment around AI and software stocks, and any moves that could affect the expected outcome. The current market probability is about 1.95%, suggesting traders are assigning a relatively low odds estimate to this price target being reached. As a monthly hit price event, it fits the broader finance and up\u002Fdown prediction market category, where traders use market odds to express their forecast rather than a guaranteed result.",17155.012545999998,{"id":681,"title":682,"slug":683,"category":8,"subcategory":14,"tags":684,"probability":685,"createdAt":686,"updatedAt":687,"resolutionDate":148,"description":688,"summary":689,"volume1wk":690,"featured":124},"503149","Largest private company end of June?","largest-private-company-end-of-june",[14,62,9,13,12],0.2,"2026-06-16T10:08:33.437Z","2026-06-16T10:01:06.459Z","This market will resolve to the listed company with the largest private market valuation on June 30, 2026. \n\nNPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day.\n\nIf NPM has not published relevant data for the specified date by 1:00 PM ET on July 1, 2026, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on July 4, 2026. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the data available.\n\nIf NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the specified date, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing.\n\nIf a company completes an IPO or direct listing before the specified date, this market will resolve based on its final NPM valuation published between market creation and the IPO or direct listing date, as this market is based on private market valuations only.\n\nIf a listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.\n\nIf a listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, only the NPM valuation achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.\n\nIf two or more companies are tied for the highest valuation, the markets will resolve in favor of the company that achieved that valuation first. If the valuations were achieved on the same day, the market will resolve in favor of the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically.\n\nRevisions to previously published NPM data made after their initial release will not be considered, unless made to correct clearly erroneous data.\n\nThe resolution sources for this market are:\nhttps:\u002F\u002Ffe.secondmarket.com\u002Fcompanies\u002Fcompany-c62b8140-fdeb-428d-a9a6-d04eb3b24b49\u002Fdata?return_url=https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket.com\u002Ffinance\u002Fprivates\nhttps:\u002F\u002Ffe.secondmarket.com\u002Fcompanies\u002Fcompany-3e197763-4ff8-4d8c-bd1f-cc2792937757\u002Fdata?return_url=https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket.com\u002Ffinance\u002Fprivates\nhttps:\u002F\u002Ffe.secondmarket.com\u002Fcompanies\u002Fcompany-5e0e75a3-96d6-4893-8f23-9d9bac0ec1db\u002Fdata?return_url=https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket.com\u002Ffinance\u002Fprivates\nhttps:\u002F\u002Ffe.secondmarket.com\u002Fcompanies\u002Fcompany-53787f17-a704-47a9-895a-cb54833bdb1f\u002Fdata?return_url=https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket.com\u002Ffinance\u002Fprivates\nhttps:\u002F\u002Ffe.secondmarket.com\u002Fcompanies\u002Fcompany-625e5f47-7ff7-45c4-be95-0305665164bd\u002Fdata?return_url=https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket.com\u002Ffinance\u002Fprivates\nhttps:\u002F\u002Ffe.secondmarket.com\u002Fcompanies\u002Fcompany-ab5413cb-1c83-497e-b03e-2ed7ca70117d\u002Fdata?return_url=https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket.com\u002Ffinance\u002Fprivates\nhttps:\u002F\u002Ffe.secondmarket.com\u002Fcompanies\u002Fcompany-86eda4f2-01af-4275-9c70-0ff3c347c62b\u002Fdata?return_url=https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket.com\u002Ffinance\u002Fprivates\nhttps:\u002F\u002Ffe.secondmarket.com\u002Fcompanies\u002Fcompany-782c0a32-4727-4097-a40b-9a2602f243e7\u002Fdata?return_url=https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket.com\u002Ffinance\u002Fprivates\nhttps:\u002F\u002Ffe.secondmarket.com\u002Fcompanies\u002Fcompany-30839e0b-2730-4495-839f-1bf638fa9cca\u002Fdata?return_url=https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket.com\u002Ffinance\u002Fprivates\nhttps:\u002F\u002Ffe.secondmarket.com\u002Fcompanies\u002Fcompany-802a7f97-3625-4614-a13d-d999cf139330\u002Fdata?return_url=https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket.com\u002Ffinance\u002Fprivates\nhttps:\u002F\u002Ffe.secondmarket.com\u002Fcompanies\u002Fcompany-5bc8aa2b-22b5-48cc-b54a-1310145b0a86\u002Fdata?return_url=https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket.com\u002Ffinance\u002Fprivates\nhttps:\u002F\u002Ffe.secondmarket.com\u002Fcompanies\u002Fcompany-6edded11-6786-4392-9695-3cce6fda0de0\u002Fdata?return_url=https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket.com\u002Ffinance\u002Fprivates.","Largest private company end of June? is a finance prediction market about which listed company will have the highest private market valuation on June 30, 2026. Traders are forecasting the expected outcome using NPM pricing data, with resolution based on the company that tops the valuation rankings at the end of the period. If a company goes public or completes a direct listing before that date, the market uses its last published private valuation instead, keeping the forecast focused on private-company value rather than public-market moves.\n\nThe event opens on May 19, 2026 and is set to resolve by July 1, 2026, with a fallback window if NPM data is delayed. That timing matters because the market depends on daily published private valuations from Second Market\u002FNPM, and late June can bring shifts in market sentiment across tech, AI, and big tech names. Current market probability is around 20%, indicating traders see the outcome as possible but far from certain. As a prediction market in the Finance \u002F Privates category, it reflects broader odds and event prediction activity around the most valuable private company at month-end.",10116.527181,{"id":692,"title":693,"slug":694,"category":8,"subcategory":458,"tags":695,"probability":38,"createdAt":697,"updatedAt":698,"resolutionDate":699,"description":700,"summary":701,"volume1wk":702,"featured":124},"389834","Kevin Warsh cuts rates at first Fed meeting?","kevin-warsh-cuts-rates-at-first-fed-meeting",[458,696,469,35,34,33],"Warsh","2026-05-30T10:42:55.861Z","2026-06-16T10:01:05.470Z",null,"The Fed interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.\n\nThis market will resolve to “Yes” if the Fed decreases the upper bound of the target federal funds range as a result of the first FOMC Meeting for which Kevin Warsh holds the position of Chair of the Federal Reserve. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\"\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after the first FOMC Meeting for which Kevin Warsh holds the position of Chair of the Federal Reserve. The FOMC calendar may be viewed at: https:\u002F\u002Fwww.federalreserve.gov\u002Fmonetarypolicy\u002Ffomccalendars.htm.\n\nThe level and change of the target federal funds range is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https:\u002F\u002Fwww.federalreserve.gov\u002Fmonetarypolicy\u002Fopenmarket.htm.\n\nIf Kevin Warsh’s nomination for Chair of the Federal Reserve is formally withdrawn, or otherwise finally rejected, or if no qualifying meeting occurs by December 31, 2026 (ET),  this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThis market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for the meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to \"No\".","Kevin Warsh cuts rates at first Fed meeting? is a finance prediction market on whether the Federal Reserve will lower the upper bound of the federal funds target range at the first FOMC meeting after Kevin Warsh becomes Chair of the Federal Reserve. The forecast focuses on the FOMC statement and the official Fed rate decision, making the event dependent on both Warsh’s confirmation and the timing of the first qualifying meeting. If no such meeting occurs by December 31, 2026, or if his nomination is withdrawn or rejected, the market resolves to No. Current market probability is about 1.6%, indicating traders see a very low chance of an immediate rate cut. In prediction market terms, sentiment is strongly leaning toward no change at Warsh’s first meeting, with limited odds priced in for an early easing move. The event sits at the intersection of Trump-era political appointments, Fed Chair succession, and U.S. monetary policy, so it is closely watched by traders tracking event prediction and interest-rate expectations.",241332.725615,{"id":704,"title":705,"slug":706,"category":8,"subcategory":11,"tags":707,"probability":708,"createdAt":709,"updatedAt":710,"resolutionDate":21,"description":711,"summary":712,"volume1wk":713,"featured":124},"79048","IPOs before 2027?","ipos-before-2027",[11,15,12,9,14],61.8,"2026-05-30T10:42:51.123Z","2026-06-16T10:01:05.042Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the listed company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements or credible news sources. The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.\n\nIf the listed company merges with another entity, is acquired, or ceases to exist before the market resolves, the market will also resolve to \"No\".\n\nThis market will resolve early if the listed company completes an IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.","IPOs before 2027? is a finance prediction market tracking whether the listed company will complete an initial public offering by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The forecast is straightforward: traders are betting on whether the company will go public on a recognized stock exchange before the deadline, or whether it will instead merge, be acquired, or cease to exist before resolution. Because the market resolves on the basis of official company announcements or credible news sources, it reflects real-time event prediction rather than speculation alone.\n\nThis event matters for investors, analysts, and anyone following Big Tech, tech, and broader business listings, since IPO timing can signal market conditions, fundraising strategy, and corporate direction. The current market probability is about 58.4%, suggesting a slight market expectation that an IPO will happen before 2027, though that outcome is not guaranteed. With the end date set for December 31, 2026, market sentiment may shift as new filings, announcements, or acquisition news emerge.",304709.671578,{"id":715,"title":716,"slug":717,"category":8,"subcategory":37,"tags":718,"probability":719,"createdAt":720,"updatedAt":721,"resolutionDate":722,"description":723,"summary":724,"volume1wk":725,"featured":124},"287395","Fed Decision in July?","fed-decision-in-july-181",[37,30,36,32,34,33,35],93.5,"2026-05-30T10:42:48.329Z","2026-06-16T10:01:04.979Z","2026-07-29T00:00:00.000Z","The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.\n\nThis market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.\n\nIf the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut\u002Fincrease of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https:\u002F\u002Fwww.federalreserve.gov\u002Fmonetarypolicy\u002Ffomccalendars.htm.\n\nThe level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https:\u002F\u002Fwww.federalreserve.gov\u002Fmonetarypolicy\u002Fopenmarket.htm.\n\nThis market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the \"No change\" bracket.","Fed Decision in July? is a finance prediction market focused on the Federal Reserve’s July 2026 FOMC meeting and the resulting change in the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The forecast asks traders to predict whether the Fed will raise, cut, or leave rates unchanged, with outcomes measured in basis points and rounded to the nearest 25 bps if the move is not listed exactly. This matters because the FOMC’s July 28-29, 2026 statement is a key signal for U.S. monetary policy, inflation expectations, and broader market sentiment. The market is set to resolve when the Fed releases its official statement after the meeting, or by the end date if no statement is available. Current market probability is 92.5%, indicating a strong expectation in the prediction market that the referenced outcome will occur, though it is not guaranteed. Relevant entities include the Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell, FOMC, Fed rates, and economic policy. For traders following event prediction and market odds, this listing reflects how the crowd is pricing the expected outcome ahead of the July decision.",1450603.229964,{"id":727,"title":728,"slug":729,"category":8,"subcategory":14,"tags":730,"probability":732,"createdAt":733,"updatedAt":734,"resolutionDate":172,"description":728,"summary":735,"volume1wk":736,"featured":124},"522289","What will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit in June 2026?","what-price-will-hood-hit-in-june-2026",[14,80,81,82,83,84,131,132,731],"HOOD",58.5,"2026-06-16T10:08:34.280Z","2026-06-16T10:00:50.123Z","What will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit in June 2026? is a finance prediction market focused on the price level Robinhood stock may reach during the month of June 2026. Traders are forecasting the expected outcome for HOOD rather than a simple up-or-down move, making this an event prediction tied to a specific monthly price target. The market is relevant for anyone tracking equities, stocks, and broader market sentiment around Robinhood’s performance. As of the latest update, the market probability is 58.5%, suggesting traders see a moderate chance of the listed outcome, though not a certainty. The event opened on May 25, 2026 and runs through July 1, 2026, giving participants a full June window to assess price action and adjust odds as new information emerges. Because this is a hit price format, the forecast reflects where HOOD may trade within the defined period, rather than a final earnings result or one-day close. The listing sits within the Finance category and is part of the monthly finance prediction market landscape.",9643.935406999999,{"id":738,"title":739,"slug":740,"category":8,"subcategory":34,"tags":741,"probability":18,"createdAt":743,"updatedAt":744,"resolutionDate":41,"description":745,"summary":746,"volume1wk":747,"featured":124},"192082","Fed decisions (Mar-Jun)","fed-decisions-mar-jun",[34,742,36,33,30,32,37],"Parlays","2026-05-30T10:42:53.969Z","2026-06-16T10:00:48.368Z","The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.\n\nA qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.\n\nA qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.\n\nA qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.\n\nIf the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to \"Other\". Any rate hike will be encompassed by \"Other\".\n\nEmergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:\nhttps:\u002F\u002Fwww.federalreserve.gov\u002Fmonetarypolicy\u002Ffomccalendars.htm\n\nThe level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:\nhttps:\u002F\u002Fwww.federalreserve.gov\u002Fmonetarypolicy\u002Fopenmarket.htm","Fed decisions (Mar-Jun) is a finance prediction market on how the Federal Reserve will set the upper bound of the target federal funds rate across the next three FOMC meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17. Traders are forecasting whether each meeting will result in a qualifying cut, hike, pause, or an \"Other\" outcome if the Fed publishes a different combination. The market resolves based on the official FOMC statement after each meeting, with emergency rate cuts outside scheduled meetings excluded. This event matters because Fed decisions shape interest rates, economic policy, and broader market sentiment across the economy. As of the latest update, the market probability is 0, so no clear implied outcome is being reflected in the data. The forecast will remain active through June 17, 2026, making it a closely watched event prediction for traders tracking Fed rates, Jerome Powell, and FOMC policy direction.",677810.0328380002,{"id":749,"title":750,"slug":751,"category":8,"subcategory":15,"tags":752,"probability":699,"createdAt":754,"updatedAt":755,"resolutionDate":21,"description":756,"summary":757,"volume1wk":758,"featured":124},"196914","Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?","largest-ipo-by-market-cap-in-2026-287",[15,9,12,99,16,753,195,97,13,11,98,14,192,401,17],"Science","2026-05-30T10:42:58.862Z","2026-06-16T10:00:48.291Z","This market will resolve to the company that achieves the highest market capitalization in U.S. dollars based on the official closing price on its first trading day in 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve to a company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.\n\nMarket capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.\n\nIf two or more companies have exactly equal highest closing market capitalizations, this market will resolve to the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically.\n\nResolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.\n\nIn case the respective company's primary exchange’s official listing page does not report in U.S. dollars, it will be converted to U.S. dollars using the U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s H.10 foreign exchange reference rate for the relevant currency pair on the company’s first trading day (https:\u002F\u002Fwww.federalreserve.gov\u002Freleases\u002Fh10\u002F). If no such rate is available for the relevant trading day, the most recent previously published rate will be used. If the relevant currency is not listed, another credible exchange rate source will be used.\n\nA listed company may resolve to \"No\" as soon as it becomes unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.\n\nIn the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on the respective companies’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.","Largest IPO by market cap in 2026? is a finance prediction market asking which company will debut on a U.S. exchange in 2026 with the highest market capitalization on its first trading day. The forecast is based on the official closing share price multiplied by outstanding shares, with resolution tied to the primary exchange listing page and U.S. dollar conversion rules when needed. The market runs through December 31, 2026, so traders are effectively weighing which IPO candidate is most likely to enter public markets at the largest valuation. This matters because large IPOs often reflect investor appetite for major tech, AI, space, and business names, and the outcome could be shaped by companies linked in market discussion such as OpenAI, SpaceX, Sam Altman, Elon Musk, and broader Big Tech themes. As of now, no single probability is provided, but prediction market sentiment can still be inferred from volume, liquidity, and open interest. If two companies finish with the same market cap, the listing resolves alphabetically.",113127.87768900002,{"id":760,"title":761,"slug":762,"category":8,"subcategory":14,"tags":763,"probability":181,"createdAt":764,"updatedAt":765,"resolutionDate":138,"description":761,"summary":766,"volume1wk":767,"featured":124},"588630","What will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit Week of June 15 2026?","will-ewy-hit-week-of-june-15-2026",[14,130,81,82,83,84,131,132,508,134],"2026-06-16T10:08:28.365Z","2026-06-16T10:00:43.563Z","What will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit Week of June 15 2026? is a finance prediction market focused on the weekly price range or price level reached by the iShares MSCI South Korea ETF (EWY). Traders are forecasting the ETF’s expected outcome over the June 12–19, 2026 timeframe, with the event settling based on where EWY trades during that week. This kind of event prediction is used to gauge market sentiment around South Korean equities, broader Asian risk appetite, and near-term moves in the ETF itself.\n\nThe listing sits in the Finance category and reflects a hit price forecast rather than a directional up-or-down bet. Current market probability is shown at 100%, which indicates the market is fully assigned to the available outcome at the time of the data snapshot, though traders should still rely on the market rules and settlement terms. Searchers looking for EWY odds, forecast probability, or South Korea ETF market expectations will find this event relevant for tracking weekly prediction market pricing and sentiment around the ETF.",14068.120742,{"id":769,"title":770,"slug":771,"category":8,"subcategory":14,"tags":772,"probability":664,"createdAt":773,"updatedAt":774,"resolutionDate":172,"description":775,"summary":776,"volume1wk":777,"featured":124},"522292","What will Gold (XAUUSD) hit in June 2026?","what-price-will-xauusd-hit-in-june-2026",[14,80,81,82,83,84,85,367],"2026-06-16T10:08:00.053Z","2026-06-16T10:00:41.225Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if, at any point after market creation and during a trading session of June 2026, any 1-minute candle for Gold (XAUUSD) has a final \"High\" or \"Low\" price equal to or beyond (above for ↑ High Prices, below for ↓ Low Prices) the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nOnly prices achieved during an applicable trading session of the specified timeframe’s business days will be considered. The trading session for a given business day typically begins at 6:00 PM ET on the prior calendar date. Under the standard schedule, trading is open from 6:00:00 PM ET Sunday through 5:00:00 PM ET Friday, with a daily break from 5:00:00 PM ET to 6:00:00 PM ET, except where modified by holiday or special-session hours.\n\nPrices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding.\n\nIf Gold (XAUUSD) does not trade at all during the listed time frame, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nIn the event of a contract specification change, feed change, or similar structural modification affecting the market during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is Pyth — specifically, the Gold (XAUUSD) \"High\" and \"Low\" prices available at https:\u002F\u002Fpythdata.app\u002Fexplore\u002FMetal.XAU%2FUSD, with the chart settings configured for 1-minute candles.\n\nHistorical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the \"t=\" parameter.\n\nIf the relevant Pyth data is unavailable due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption that prevents verification of the required 1-minute candle data, the official daily high\u002Flow price published for the relevant CME COMEX futures contract for the underlying metal—COMEX Gold Futures (GC)—may be used to determine whether the listed price was reached during the applicable trading session.","What will Gold (XAUUSD) hit in June 2026? is a finance prediction market focused on whether spot gold will reach or cross at least one listed price level during a trading session in June 2026. The event resolves “Yes” if, at any point after market creation and before the end date of July 1, 2026, a 1-minute Pyth candle for Gold (XAUUSD) shows a final High or Low at or beyond the specified threshold; otherwise it resolves “No.” Because the contract is based on intramonth price action rather than the month-end close, it reflects how traders are pricing short-term gold volatility and market sentiment across the month.\n\nThe forecast uses Pyth data for Gold (XAUUSD), with CME COMEX Gold Futures (GC) as a fallback if needed. Trading sessions follow standard FX hours, opening Sunday evening ET and running through Friday with a daily break. Current market probability is about 1.05%, indicating low odds that the target price will be hit based on present expectations. As a commodities and finance event prediction, this market is relevant for participants tracking gold prices, XAU\u002FUSD movement, and monthly hit-price odds.",205712.41920799998,{"id":779,"title":780,"slug":781,"category":8,"subcategory":194,"tags":782,"probability":207,"createdAt":783,"updatedAt":784,"resolutionDate":103,"description":259,"summary":785,"volume1wk":786,"featured":124},"197776","Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap (Lower Brackets)","anthropic-ipo-closing-market-cap-119",[194,9,64,11,13,14,12,16,67],"2026-05-30T10:43:14.529Z","2026-06-16T10:00:41.211Z","Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap (Lower Brackets) is a finance prediction market asking traders to forecast Anthropic’s market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading. The outcome will be determined from the company’s official first-day closing share price and the number of shares outstanding, with resolution based on the primary exchange listing page or another reliable source if needed. If Anthropic does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2027 at 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to “No IPO by December 31, 2027.”\n\nThis event matters because it sits at the intersection of AI, Big Tech, and IPO markets, giving a real-time view of market sentiment around one of the most closely watched private technology companies. The current market probability is about 25%, suggesting traders see the lower market-cap brackets as a live but not dominant expected outcome. As with any event prediction, odds can shift as IPO timing, listing details, and broader finance conditions evolve over the 2026 to 2027 timeframe.",25492.236563,{"id":788,"title":789,"slug":790,"category":8,"subcategory":791,"tags":792,"probability":797,"createdAt":798,"updatedAt":799,"resolutionDate":800,"description":801,"summary":802,"volume1wk":803,"featured":124},"532855","Will Goldman Sachs (GS) Q2 investment banking fees be above __?","will-goldman-sachs-gs-q2-investment-banking-fees-be-above","Banking",[791,793,794,14,795,796],"banks","GS","Goldman Sachs","KPIs",95.6,"2026-06-16T10:08:20.936Z","2026-06-16T10:00:40.506Z","2026-07-14T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Goldman Sachs's investment banking fees for the upcoming second fiscal quarter, as reported in its official company earnings materials, is above the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe specified metric will be considered as reported in the company's official earnings materials. Subsequent revisions will not be considered.\n\nIf the specified company's official earnings materials for the specified quarter are released, and the specified metric is not included, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf the specified company does not release quarterly earnings materials for the specified quarter by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf the specified metric is reported as a range rather than a specific number, the midpoint of the range will be used for resolution of this market.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is Goldman Sachs's official company earnings materials, including press releases, investor presentations, and regulatory filings. If the specified metric is not reported in these materials, recordings or transcripts of the company's earnings webcast may also be used.\n\nNote: This market will resolve based on the most numerically precise version of the specified metric reported in the company's official earnings materials. Only the specified metric will be considered; alternate versions that differ in definition or scope from the specified metric will not be considered.","Will Goldman Sachs (GS) Q2 investment banking fees be above __? is a finance prediction market focused on whether Goldman Sachs will report second-quarter investment banking fees above the listed threshold in its official earnings materials. The event asks traders to forecast a single KPI from the bank’s quarterly results, using Goldman Sachs’ press release, investor presentation, regulatory filings, or earnings webcast as the resolution source. If the company does not publish the quarter’s earnings materials by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to No. The forecast matters because investment banking fees are a closely watched measure of dealmaking activity and a key signal for banking revenue trends, especially in a period when market sentiment around banks can shift quickly with capital markets conditions. As of the latest market data, the prediction market implies a 95.6% probability of a Yes outcome, suggesting strong trader expectation that Goldman Sachs will clear the threshold, though the odds are not guaranteed and remain tied to the company’s reported figure.",21651.805855000002,{"id":805,"title":806,"slug":807,"category":8,"subcategory":37,"tags":808,"probability":565,"createdAt":810,"updatedAt":811,"resolutionDate":812,"description":813,"summary":814,"volume1wk":815,"featured":124},"329566","Fed rate hike by...?","fed-rate-hike-by",[37,809,34,32,14,33,36],"Inflation","2026-06-16T10:08:26.534Z","2026-06-16T10:00:34.997Z","2026-10-29T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nIf the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nEmergency rate hikes will qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https:\u002F\u002Fwww.federalreserve.gov\u002Fmonetarypolicy\u002Fopenmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.","\"Fed rate hike by...?\" is a Finance prediction market on whether the Federal Reserve will raise the upper bound of the target federal funds rate during the listed FOMC meeting window. The event resolves to Yes if an increase is announced at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of that meeting, including any rate hike tied to the meeting itself; otherwise it resolves to No. Emergency rate hikes also count, and the Fed’s official policy releases are the primary resolution source. If the meeting does not occur within seven calendar days of its scheduled end date, and no qualifying move is announced, the market resolves to No. The forecast is closely watched because FOMC decisions shape inflation expectations, borrowing costs, and broader market sentiment around Fed policy under Jerome Powell. Current market probability is about 55%, suggesting traders see the odds as roughly balanced but slightly tilted toward a hike. As a prediction market event, it reflects live event prediction and changing trader expectations ahead of the deadline window ending October 29, 2026.",15864.693074,{"id":817,"title":818,"slug":819,"category":8,"subcategory":820,"tags":821,"probability":824,"createdAt":825,"updatedAt":826,"resolutionDate":827,"description":828,"summary":829,"volume1wk":830,"featured":124},"78999","StandX FDV above ___ one day after launch?","standx-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch","Pre-Market",[820,618,822,823],"StandX","FDV",5.15,"2026-06-16T10:08:26.152Z","2026-06-16T10:00:34.916Z","2027-01-01T05:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of StandX's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nThe token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch.\n\n\"1 day after launch\" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If StandX (https:\u002F\u002Fx.com\u002FStandX_Official) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"No\".","StandX FDV above ___ one day after launch? is a finance prediction market tracking whether the fully diluted valuation of StandX’s token will be above the threshold stated in the title one day after launch. The market focuses on a specific post-launch price check, using the most liquid available price source to determine the token’s FDV at 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day after launch. To resolve Yes, StandX must first launch a token that is actively, publicly transferable and tradable. If no token launch occurs by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET, the event resolves No. As of the latest update, traders assign this forecast a low probability of about 5.15%, suggesting market sentiment currently expects the threshold to remain unmet. This event sits in the Pre-Market crypto category and is relevant for traders following token launches, FDV pricing, and early-stage market odds around StandX (X: @StandX_Official).",16184.626067,{"id":832,"title":833,"slug":834,"category":8,"subcategory":12,"tags":835,"probability":334,"createdAt":837,"updatedAt":838,"resolutionDate":839,"description":840,"summary":841,"volume1wk":842,"featured":124},"48292","OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap","openai-ipo-closing-market-cap",[12,192,16,9,11,14,17,836],"rewards 100, 4.5, 100 Deprec","2026-05-30T10:43:11.443Z","2026-06-16T10:00:34.625Z","2026-12-31T23:55:00.000Z","This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.\n\nIf no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"No IPO by December 31, 2026\".\n\nMarket capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.\n\nIf the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nResolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.\n\nIn the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.","OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap is a finance prediction market asking traders to forecast OpenAI’s market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading. The event centers on whether OpenAI completes an IPO before the deadline, and if no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to “No IPO by December 31, 2026.” If an IPO does happen, resolution is based on the company’s official closing price on the first trading day and the corresponding market cap, with bracketed ranges resolved to the higher bracket when the value falls exactly between two ranges. This event matters because OpenAI is one of the most closely watched Big Tech and AI companies, so the outcome is a key signal for market sentiment around the company’s valuation and public listing prospects. Current market probability is about 1.65%, suggesting traders assign relatively low odds to a near-term outcome. The forecast is active from September 23, 2025 through December 31, 2026, making it a long-dated event prediction tied to OpenAI, IPOs, and broader tech-finance expectations.",72407.114049,{"id":844,"title":845,"slug":846,"category":8,"subcategory":483,"tags":847,"probability":848,"createdAt":849,"updatedAt":850,"resolutionDate":489,"description":851,"summary":852,"volume1wk":853,"featured":124},"597397","S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 16?","spx-opens-up-or-down-on-june-16-2026",[483,482,14,111,113,82],30.5,"2026-06-16T10:08:13.136Z","2026-06-16T10:00:33.107Z","This market will resolve to \"Up\" if the official S&P 500 Index open price for S&P 500 (SPX) on June 16 is higher than the official S&P 500 Index closing price for SPX on the most recent prior trading day.\n\nThis market will resolve to \"Down\" if the official S&P 500 Index open price for S&P 500 (SPX) on June 16 is lower than the official S&P 500 Index closing price for SPX on the most recent prior trading day.\n\nE.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its most recent closing price, unless that Friday were a market holiday, in which case it would refer to Thursday, or the next most recent trading day.\n\nIf the two prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. Note that all figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding.\n\nIf SPX does not trade at all during the regular session, the market will resolve 50-50.\n\nIf either of the relevant days are shortened (for example, due to a market holiday schedule), the official open\u002Fclose price published by S&P 500 Index for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.\n\nIf the previous trading day has no official closing price (for example, due to a trading halt into the market close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Wall Street Journal, specifically the Open\u002FClose values published by the WSJ under \"Historical Prices\".\n\nUS: https:\u002F\u002Fwww.wsj.com\u002Fmarket-data\u002Fstocks\nEMEA: https:\u002F\u002Fwww.wsj.com\u002Fmarket-data\u002Fstocks\u002Femea\nASIA: https:\u002F\u002Fwww.wsj.com\u002Fmarket-data\u002Fstocks\u002Fasia","The prediction market for **S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 16?** asks whether the official S&P 500 Index will open higher or lower than the prior trading day’s official close. It is a straightforward up-or-down forecast tied to the June 16, 2026 opening print, with resolution based on Wall Street Journal historical price data for SPX. If the open is above the previous close, the market resolves \"Up\"; if it is below, it resolves \"Down.\" If the two prices are equal, or if SPX does not trade in the regular session, the market resolves 50-50.\n\nThis finance prediction market matters because the S&P 500 is a key benchmark for U.S. equities, and short-term market sentiment around the open can reflect overnight news, macroeconomic developments, and trader positioning. As of the latest market data, traders are assigning about a 30.5% probability to the \"Up\" outcome, indicating that the expected outcome currently leans toward \"Down.\" The market runs from June 15 through the June 16, 2026 deadline, making it a closely watched daily event prediction for index watchers and prediction market participants.",37830.69606,{"id":855,"title":856,"slug":857,"category":8,"subcategory":16,"tags":858,"probability":859,"createdAt":860,"updatedAt":861,"resolutionDate":405,"description":862,"summary":863,"volume1wk":864,"featured":124},"575318","SpaceX IPO: Closing Price Up\u002FDown End of First Month?","spacex-ipo-closing-price-updown-end-of-first-month-20260608182738233",[16,401,14,98,12,97,9,11],84.5,"2026-06-16T10:08:13.255Z","2026-06-16T10:00:29.538Z","This market will resolve to “Up” if SpaceX's closing share price on the last trading day of the calendar month in which SpaceX completes its Initial Public Offering (IPO) is greater than or equal to the closing share price on its first day of trading. Otherwise, it will resolve to “Down.”\n\nThe official closing price as listed by the primary exchange will be considered the closing share price for the purposes of this market. The IPO offer price, or the price of any transaction not on the primary exchange, will not count for resolution of this market.\n\nThe IPO refers to the first sale of stock by SpaceX to the public on any recognized stock exchange. If no SpaceX IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to 50-50. \n\nIf SpaceX’s first day of trading falls on the last trading day of the calendar month, this market will consider the closing share price of the last trading day of the following calendar month, treating it as though SpaceX completed its IPO the following month for the purposes of this market.\n\nResolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.\n\nIn the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on either specified day of SpaceX trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published for either specified day, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the specified day for purposes of this market.","SpaceX IPO: Closing Price Up\u002FDown End of First Month? is a finance prediction market asking whether SpaceX’s share price will finish the calendar month of its IPO higher or lower than it opened on its first trading day. Traders are forecasting the expected outcome based on the company’s first day of trading on a primary exchange and the official closing price on the last trading day of that same month. If SpaceX does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2027, the market resolves 50-50. The event matters because it combines one of the most closely watched tech IPOs with near-term post-listing market sentiment around SpaceX, Elon Musk, and broader Big Tech investor expectations. Current market probability is about 84.5% for one side of the forecast, indicating strong conviction in the current odds, though it is not a guarantee. The prediction market runs from June 9, 2026 through July 1, 2026, with resolution tied to official exchange pricing and standardized trading-day rules.",37356.741700000006,{"id":866,"title":867,"slug":868,"category":8,"subcategory":12,"tags":869,"probability":871,"createdAt":872,"updatedAt":873,"resolutionDate":103,"description":259,"summary":874,"volume1wk":875,"featured":124},"428957","Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap (Middle Brackets)","anthropic-ipo-closing-market-cap-979",[12,64,16,11,13,14,9,66,870,67],"Rewards 50, 4.5, 100 Deprec",4.9,"2026-05-30T10:43:26.697Z","2026-06-16T10:00:26.845Z","Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap is a finance prediction market asking traders to forecast Anthropic’s market capitalization at the closing price on the company’s first day of trading. The event focuses on the expected valuation of the AI and Big Tech company behind Claude, and it will resolve using the official primary exchange listing page or another reliable source if needed. If Anthropic does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No IPO by December 31, 2027.”\n\nThis event matters because Anthropic is one of the most closely watched names in artificial intelligence, and its IPO valuation would signal market sentiment around AI companies, public-market demand, and broader tech sector expectations. The forecast is structured around bracketed market-cap ranges, with the higher range used if the final value falls exactly between two brackets.\n\nAs of the latest data, the market probability is 1.3%, suggesting traders currently see a low chance of the listed outcome relative to the available brackets. The market begins on April 30, 2026 and runs until the end-of-year deadline in 2027.",24771.505789000003,{"id":877,"title":878,"slug":879,"category":8,"subcategory":880,"tags":881,"probability":882,"createdAt":883,"updatedAt":884,"resolutionDate":21,"description":885,"summary":886,"volume1wk":887,"featured":124},"192787","What will Gold (GC) hit__ by end of December?","what-will-gold-gc-hit-by-end-of-december","COMEX Gold Features",[880,14,82,85,367],3.65,"2026-05-30T10:43:13.715Z","2026-06-16T10:00:26.641Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if, on any trading day, the official CME settlement price for the Active Month (front month) of Gold (GC) futures is equal to or above the listed price by the final trading day of December 2026. Otherwise, the market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor CME Gold (GC) futures contracts, the Active Month is the nearest of CME's designated delivery-cycle months (February, April, June, August, October, December) that is not the spot month. The Active Month changes automatically on the contract's First Position Date, at which point the next eligible contract month becomes the Active Month.\n\nOnly the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.\n\nNote that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.\n\nOnly days on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.\n\nThis market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for that trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily \"Settlement\" price for the Active Month of Gold (GC) futures.","What will Gold (GC) hit by end of December? is a finance prediction market on whether CME Gold futures will reach or exceed a listed price at any point before the final trading day of December 2026. The event resolves using the official CME settlement price for the Active Month (front month) Gold (GC) futures contract, not intraday highs, lows, or last traded prices. Traders are forecasting the expected outcome based on CME’s published daily settlement data, which is the only source used for resolution.\n\nThis market matters because Gold futures are a closely watched commodity benchmark and a key indicator of precious metals sentiment. The Active Month changes according to CME’s delivery cycle, and only trading days with published settlement prices count toward resolution. The market opens on 2026-01-29 and ends on 2026-12-31.\n\nCurrent market probability is about 5.5%, suggesting traders see a relatively low chance that Gold will hit the specified level by year-end. As a prediction market, this listing reflects market odds and forecast sentiment rather than a guaranteed price target.",54938.902655,{"id":889,"title":890,"slug":891,"category":8,"subcategory":85,"tags":892,"probability":893,"createdAt":894,"updatedAt":895,"resolutionDate":643,"description":896,"summary":897,"volume1wk":898,"featured":124},"597447","WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 16?","wti-up-or-down-on-june-16-2026",[85,482,483,484,82,83,84,86,14],9.5,"2026-06-16T10:08:17.036Z","2026-06-16T10:00:21.787Z","This market will resolve to \"Up\" if the Close price for the Active Month of WTI Crude Oil futures on June 16, 2026, is higher than the Close price for the Active Month of WTI Crude Oil futures on the most recent prior trading day.\n\nThis market will resolve to \"Down\" if the Close price for the Active Month of WTI Crude Oil futures on June 16, 2026, is lower than the Close price for the Active Month of WTI Crude Oil futures on the most recent prior trading day.\n\nE.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its most recent closing price, unless Friday were not a trading day under the applicable trading-hours schedule, in which case it would refer to the next most recent prior trading day.\n\nFor a standard full trading session, the closing price refers to the Pyth \"Close\" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange. Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding.\n\nIf the two specified closing prices are exactly equal, if the Active Month contract does not trade at all during the relevant trading session, or if the listed date is not a trading day under the applicable trading-hours schedule, the market will resolve 50-50.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, trading days will be determined according to the applicable trading hours schedule for the underlying market. Under the standard schedule, trading is open from 6:00:00 PM ET Sunday through 5:00:00 PM ET Friday, with a daily break from 5:00:00 PM ET to 6:00:00 PM ET, except where modified by holiday or special-session hours.\n\nPer CME contract specifications for WTI Crude Oil (CL) futures, a contract's last trading day is three business days prior to the 25th calendar day of the month preceding the contract's delivery month (or four business days prior if the 25th calendar day is not a business day).\n\nThe active month changes at the start of the second trading session prior to the nearest listed contract's last trading session. At that point, the next listed contract becomes the active month (i.e., for the final three trading sessions of the nearest listed contract, the contract for the next month is the active month). The trading session for a given business day typically begins at 6:00 PM ET on the prior calendar date.\n\nFor example, if the 25th of the month is a Saturday, the last trading session for the nearest listed contract is the session for Tuesday the 21st, and the next listed contract becomes the active month at the start of the trading session for Friday the 17th (6:00 PM ET on Thursday), assuming a standard trading calendar.\n\nBoth closing prices will reference the same underlying contract, specifically the contract that is considered the Active Month at the end of the trading session on the specified date.\n\nIf either of the relevant days has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle corresponding to the end of regular trading hours on the primary exchange, the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange as the effective closing price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the official settlement price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine the closing price for that day.\n\nIn the event of a contract specification change, feed change, or similar structural modification affecting the underlying market during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the \"Close\" values for the relevant 1-minute candles for the Active Month of WTI Crude Oil futures available at https:\u002F\u002Fpythdata.app\u002Fexplore?search=WTI. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the \"t=\" parameter.","WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 16? is a finance prediction market asking whether the active-month WTI crude oil futures contract will finish higher or lower on June 16, 2026, compared with the most recent prior trading day. The event uses Pyth’s published close prices for the final minute of regular trading hours, and it resolves 50-50 in edge cases such as an unchanged close or no valid trading data. Trading runs through the end date of June 16, 2026, so the market’s forecast is tied directly to that session’s settlement behavior. This matters because WTI is a widely watched commodities benchmark, and short-term moves in crude oil can reflect shifts in supply, demand, inventory data, geopolitics, and broader risk sentiment. Current market probability is about 9.5% for “Up,” indicating traders currently expect a downside or flat-to-lower move more than an advance. As a daily up-or-down oil event, it is a straightforward read on market sentiment and event prediction around one of the most important energy contracts in global commodities trading.",28173.418171000005,{"id":900,"title":901,"slug":902,"category":8,"subcategory":903,"tags":904,"probability":18,"createdAt":908,"updatedAt":909,"resolutionDate":827,"description":910,"summary":911,"volume1wk":912,"featured":124},"16183","Kraken IPO by ___ ?","kraken-ipo-in-2025","exchange",[903,9,618,14,15,905,906,11,907],"2025 Predictions","Featured","Crypto Listings","2026-05-30T10:43:13.372Z","2026-06-16T10:00:18.697Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Kraken (US-based cryptocurrency exchange) completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements or credible news sources. The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by Kraken to the public on any recognized stock exchange.\n\nIf Kraken merges with another entity, is acquired, or ceases to exist before the market resolves, the market will also resolve to \"No\".\n\nThis market will resolve early if Kraken completes an IPO by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.","Kraken IPO by ___ ? is a finance prediction market asking whether Kraken, the US-based cryptocurrency exchange, will complete an initial public offering by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Traders are forecasting the expected outcome based on official company announcements and credible news reporting, with the market resolving to Yes only if Kraken lists its stock on a recognized exchange before the deadline. If Kraken is acquired, merges with another entity, or ceases to exist before resolution, the market resolves No. The event is relevant to crypto, tech, business, and IPO watchers because a public listing would be a notable milestone for one of the best-known digital asset exchanges. Market sentiment can be tracked through prediction market odds and probability, but no percentage is currently available in the data. The market is active through the end of 2025, making it a time-sensitive event prediction for traders following exchange-sector listings and broader cryptocurrency industry developments.",25170.263645,{"id":914,"title":915,"slug":916,"category":8,"subcategory":62,"tags":917,"probability":920,"createdAt":921,"updatedAt":922,"resolutionDate":148,"description":923,"summary":924,"volume1wk":925,"featured":124},"500559","Will Stripe's valuation hit __ by June 30?","will-stripes-valuation-hit-by-june-30",[62,14,918,919,9,12],"Stripe","Payments",6,"2026-05-30T10:43:19.209Z","2026-05-30T10:40:25.182Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Stripe's private market valuation, as measured by the NPM Price reported by Nasdaq Private Market, LLC (NPM) for any date between market creation and June 30, 2026, reaches or exceeds the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nNPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day.\n\nIf NPM has not published relevant data for all business dates in the specified period by 1:00 PM ET on July 1, 2026, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on July 4, 2026. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the data available.\n\nIf NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published for the period prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as any applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing.\nIf the company completes an IPO or direct listing before the end of the specified period, this market will consider, in addition to the relevant NPM valuations published between market creation and the IPO or direct listing date, the valuation implied by the official IPO or direct listing price, and the company's public market capitalization between the IPO or direct listing date and the end of the specified period.\n\nPublic market capitalization will be determined using the highest\u002Flowest official regular-hours trading price published for the company's primary listed common equity on its primary exchange for any trading day during the specified period, multiplied by the company's total outstanding common shares at the relevant time.\n\nIf the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.\n\nIf the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, only NPM valuations and applicable public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is NPM data published here (https:\u002F\u002Ffe.secondmarket.com\u002Fcompanies\u002Fcompany-6edded11-6786-4392-9695-3cce6fda0de0\u002Fdata?return_url=https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket.com\u002Ffinance\u002Fprivates). The resolution source for any period following an IPO, direct listing, or relevant corporate action, will be official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.\n\nRevisions to previously published NPM data made after their initial release will not be considered, unless made to correct clearly erroneous data.","Will Stripe's valuation hit __ by June 30? is a finance prediction market asking whether Stripe’s private market valuation will reach or exceed a specified level at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026. The forecast is based on Nasdaq Private Market (NPM) price data, with daily updates published on trading days and used to determine the expected outcome. If Stripe completes an IPO or direct listing before the deadline, official exchange pricing and public market capitalization can also factor into resolution. If the company is acquired or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity, only valuation data available before that transaction will count. Market sentiment currently implies a low probability of about 6%, suggesting traders see the threshold as unlikely to be reached. The event is relevant to finance and private markets watchers because Stripe is a major payments and tech company, and its valuation is often treated as a signal for broader private-company pricing in the big tech sector. The market is scheduled to run through July 1, 2026, with a possible extension if all relevant NPM data is not yet available.",15621.907764000001,{"id":927,"title":928,"slug":929,"category":8,"subcategory":9,"tags":930,"probability":207,"createdAt":931,"updatedAt":932,"resolutionDate":103,"description":933,"summary":934,"volume1wk":935,"featured":124},"98374","SpaceX IPO Closing Market Cap (Lowest Strikes)","spacex-ipo-closing-market-cap-lowest-strikes",[9,12,97,98,11,16,99],"2026-05-30T10:42:52.481Z","2026-05-30T10:40:18.022Z","This market will resolve based on SpaceX's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.\n\nIf no SpaceX IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"No IPO before 2028\".\n\nMarket capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.\n\nIf the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nResolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.\n\nIn the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on SpaceX’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.","SpaceX IPO Closing Market Cap (Lowest Strikes) is a finance prediction market tracking the company’s market capitalization at the official closing price on the first day SpaceX begins trading. The forecast is straightforward: traders are estimating which valuation bracket SpaceX will land in if an IPO occurs, with the market resolving to the appropriate range based on the primary exchange’s official listing page or another reliable source if needed. If SpaceX does not IPO by December 31, 2027 at 11:59 PM ET, the event resolves to \"No IPO before 2028.\"\n\nThis event matters because SpaceX, Elon Musk’s private aerospace and technology company, is one of the most closely watched potential IPOs in the market. The current market probability for the lowest strike outcome is about 15%, indicating limited but present trader conviction that the opening valuation could fall in that bracket. Market sentiment here reflects broader expectations around a future SpaceX listing, first-day trading performance, and the company’s eventual market cap. The prediction market is active, and the odds will continue to shift as traders weigh IPO timing, listing mechanics, and the final closing price on day one.",186816.79667399998,{"id":937,"title":938,"slug":939,"category":8,"subcategory":11,"tags":940,"probability":18,"createdAt":941,"updatedAt":942,"resolutionDate":21,"description":943,"summary":944,"volume1wk":945,"featured":124},"200421","In which month will SpaceX IPO?","in-which-month-will-spacex-ipo",[11,14,15,16,97,98],"2026-05-30T10:43:06.215Z","2026-05-30T10:40:11.222Z","This market will resolve based on the calendar month (ET) in 2026 in which SpaceX’s initial public offering (IPO) occurs.\n\nIf no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"No IPO before 2027\".\n\nAnnouncements, filings, or scheduling of an IPO will not suffice; this market will resolve after public trading has begun.\n\nResolution will be based on information from the primary exchange.","In which month will SpaceX IPO? is a finance prediction market asking traders to forecast the calendar month in 2026 when SpaceX will complete its initial public offering, or whether no IPO will happen before 2027. The market resolves only when public trading has actually begun, so announcements, filings, or IPO scheduling alone are not enough. If SpaceX does not go public by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET, the outcome is \"No IPO before 2027.\" This makes the event a straightforward test of market sentiment around one of the most closely watched IPO possibilities in business and finance.\n\nAs of the latest market data, the implied probability is 0, though traders have still generated meaningful volume and liquidity, suggesting active interest in the forecast. The event is tied to SpaceX and Elon Musk, with resolution based on information from the primary exchange. For investors, analysts, and prediction market observers, this IPO event prediction reflects expectations about timing, not valuation, and it remains open through the end of 2026.",37069.872020999996,{"id":947,"title":948,"slug":949,"category":8,"subcategory":14,"tags":950,"probability":355,"createdAt":951,"updatedAt":952,"resolutionDate":953,"description":954,"summary":955,"volume1wk":956,"featured":124},"385556","2nd largest company end of May?","2nd-largest-company-end-of-may",[14,36,9,15,12],"2026-05-30T10:42:47.160Z","2026-05-30T10:38:38.881Z","2026-05-31T06:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to the second-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31, 2026, as of market close.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.","“2nd largest company end of May?” is a finance prediction market asking which company will be the second-largest in the world by market capitalization at the market close on May 31, 2026. The forecast is based on a consensus of credible reporting, and traders are effectively pricing in the expected outcome among global public companies, with a strong focus on Big Tech and other large-cap names. As of the latest market data, the probability for the event is about 5%, suggesting market sentiment currently assigns a low chance to any one company meeting the threshold at expiry. The market opened on April 17, 2026 and resolves using end-of-month valuation data, making timing important for anyone following the event prediction. Because the result depends on relative market cap rankings rather than a company’s standalone performance, the outcome can shift quickly with stock price moves, broad equity trends, and changes in investor expectations. This prediction market is relevant for participants tracking finance, economy, tech, and business categories, since it reflects how odds are being assigned to the global corporate leaderboard.",998899.903299,{"id":958,"title":959,"slug":960,"category":8,"subcategory":300,"tags":961,"probability":963,"createdAt":964,"updatedAt":965,"resolutionDate":966,"description":967,"summary":968,"volume1wk":969,"featured":124},"511309","Five Below Q1 comparable sales growth?","five-below-q1-comparable-sales-growth",[300,14,796,962],"Five Below",5,"2026-05-30T10:43:27.250Z","2026-05-30T10:38:14.585Z","2026-06-03T16:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve according to Five Below's announced comparable sales growth for the first fiscal quarter of 2026, as reported in its official company earnings materials.\n\nThe specified metric will be considered as reported in the company's official earnings materials. Subsequent revisions will not be considered.\n\nIf the specified company's official earnings materials for the specified quarter are released, and the specified metric is not included, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.\n\nIf the specified company does not release quarterly earnings materials for the specified quarter by July 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.\n\nIf the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nIf the specified metric is reported as a range rather than a specific number, the midpoint of the range will be used for resolution of this market.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is Five Below's official company earnings materials, including press releases, investor presentations, and regulatory filings. If the specified metric is not reported in these materials, recordings or transcripts of the company's earnings webcast may also be used.\n\nNote: This market will resolve based on the most numerically precise version of the specified metric reported in the company's official earnings materials. Only the specified metric will be considered; alternate versions that differ in definition or scope from the specified metric will not be considered.","Five Below Q1 comparable sales growth? is a finance prediction market focused on the retailer’s announced comparable sales growth for the first fiscal quarter of 2026. The forecast resolves using Five Below’s official company earnings materials, including press releases, investor presentations, regulatory filings, or earnings webcast transcripts if needed. Traders are effectively pricing the expected outcome for this KPI, with current market probability around 5%, suggesting low odds that the reported result will land in the higher ranges. The event matters because comparable sales are a key retail performance metric and often influence how investors interpret demand trends, store productivity, and execution at Five Below. The market is scheduled around the company’s reporting timeline, with resolution tied to the Q1 2026 earnings release process and a deadline of July 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET if materials are not published. As an event prediction, this market tracks whether Five Below can report comparable sales growth that meets or exceeds the bracket structure used for resolution.",9700.283042,{"id":971,"title":972,"slug":973,"category":8,"subcategory":192,"tags":974,"probability":975,"createdAt":976,"updatedAt":977,"resolutionDate":103,"description":978,"summary":979,"volume1wk":980,"featured":124},"507193","Lead Bank in OpenAI's IPO?","lead-bank-in-openais-ipo",[192,9,15,12,195,11,17],8,"2026-05-30T10:43:21.495Z","2026-05-30T10:36:12.227Z","This market will resolve according to the bank that serves as the lead underwriter in the initial public offering of OpenAI.\n\nIf no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or OpenAI completes an initial public offering without a designated lead underwriter, this market will resolve to “Other.”\n\nIf multiple banks are identified as lead underwriters, this market will resolve according to the primary lead underwriter. If the hierarchy between them is unclear, this market will resolve once it is conclusively evident which bank is the primary lead underwriter, for example, through the order in which the banks are listed in the underwriting section of OpenAI's final initial public offering prospectus, once released.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official disclosures from OpenAI. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.","Lead Bank in OpenAI's IPO? is a finance prediction market asking which bank, if any, will serve as the lead underwriter in OpenAI’s initial public offering. The forecast focuses on a specific IPO outcome: the primary lead bank named in OpenAI’s official disclosures or final prospectus, with “Other” resolving the market if no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, or if the company goes public without a designated lead underwriter. Because OpenAI remains one of the most closely watched names in tech and Big Tech, the event matters to traders tracking market sentiment around Sam Altman’s company, IPO timing, and underwriting expectations. Current market probability is about 8%, suggesting participants see a lead-bank designation as possible but far from certain. The prediction market will ultimately depend on official OpenAI disclosures, though credible reporting may also help clarify the expected outcome if multiple banks are involved. With the event active through the end of 2027, it offers a long-dated event prediction tied to one of the most anticipated IPO scenarios in finance and technology.",13421.404908,{"id":982,"title":983,"slug":984,"category":8,"subcategory":98,"tags":985,"probability":18,"createdAt":986,"updatedAt":987,"resolutionDate":21,"description":988,"summary":989,"volume1wk":990,"featured":124},"183698","SpaceX IPO by ___ ?","spacex-ipo-by",[98,401,11,97,14,16],"2026-05-30T10:42:49.848Z","2026-05-30T10:35:50.336Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if SpaceX (Space Exploration Technologies Corp.) completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by the listed date ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nThe IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.\n\nIf SpaceX is acquired by another company that is already public, this market will immediately resolve to \"No.\"\n\nThe resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.","SpaceX IPO by ___ ? is a finance prediction market asking whether SpaceX, formally Space Exploration Technologies Corp., will complete an initial public offering by the listed deadline. Traders are forecasting a simple yes-or-no outcome: the market resolves to “Yes” if SpaceX conducts an IPO on a recognized stock exchange before December 31, 2026 ET, based on official company announcements and credible news sources; otherwise it resolves to “No.” If SpaceX is acquired by another public company before then, the event also resolves to “No.”\n\nThis event matters because a SpaceX IPO would be a major milestone for one of the most closely watched private companies in the space sector and for Elon Musk-related finance headlines more broadly. Current market probability is 0%, indicating traders currently assign no odds to an IPO being completed within the timeframe. As with any prediction market, that figure reflects market sentiment and can change as new reporting or company actions emerge. The resolution standard depends on consensus credible coverage, making timing and verified disclosures especially important.",364043.01111200004,{"id":992,"title":993,"slug":994,"category":8,"subcategory":9,"tags":995,"probability":607,"createdAt":996,"updatedAt":997,"resolutionDate":998,"description":999,"summary":1000,"volume1wk":1001,"featured":124},"354912","Riku Dining Group IPO Closing Market Cap","riku-dining-group-ipo-closing-market-cap",[9,11,16,15,14,300],"2026-05-30T10:43:09.915Z","2026-05-30T10:34:30.506Z","2026-05-27T16:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve based on Riku Dining Group’s market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.\n\nAs of market creation, the IPO is scheduled to price on May 27 (ET). If no such IPO occurs by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"No IPO before June 2026\".\n\nMarket capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency.\n\nIt is calculated as the total number of outstanding shares, multiplied by the official closing share price of the publicly traded class on the first trading day.\n\nIf necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently.\n\nThe number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings). The closing share price on the first trading day will be determined from the primary exchange’s official listing page.\n\nIf the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official company filings and the primary exchange’s official listing page. The market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the total outstanding shares and the closing price from the first day of trading.\n\nIn the event of an interruption in the normal trading session on the specified company’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that day as the first day of trading for the purposes of this market.","Riku Dining Group IPO Closing Market Cap is a finance prediction market that forecasts the company’s market capitalization based on its closing share price on the first day of trading. In plain terms, traders are pricing the expected outcome of Riku Dining Group’s IPO and the valuation it reaches at the close, using official company filings and the primary exchange’s listing page as the main resolution sources. The market is scheduled around the IPO pricing date of May 27 ET, and if no IPO occurs by May 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET, it resolves to \"No IPO before June 2026.\" \n\nCurrent market probability is about 40%, which suggests traders see a moderate chance of this outcome occurring within the listed timeframe. Because the calculation uses outstanding shares and the official closing price, the event is closely tied to the first day of public trading rather than longer-term stock performance. As an IPO and tech-related finance event, it attracts attention from prediction market participants watching market sentiment, odds, and event prediction around Riku Dining Group’s debut.",26786.92930700002,{"id":1003,"title":1004,"slug":1005,"category":8,"subcategory":11,"tags":1006,"probability":1007,"createdAt":1008,"updatedAt":1009,"resolutionDate":998,"description":1010,"summary":1011,"volume1wk":1012,"featured":124},"354833","BW Industrial Holdings IPO Closing Market Cap","bw-industrial-holdings-ipo-closing-market-cap",[11,9,14,15,16,300],0.3,"2026-05-30T10:43:22.155Z","2026-05-30T10:34:00.450Z","This market will resolve based on BW Industrial Holdings’ market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.\n\nAs of market creation, the IPO is scheduled to price on May 27 (ET). If no such IPO occurs by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"No IPO before June 2026\".\n\nMarket capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency.\n\nIt is calculated as the total number of outstanding shares, multiplied by the official closing share price of the publicly traded class on the first trading day.\n\nIf necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently.\n\nThe number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings). The closing share price on the first trading day will be determined from the primary exchange’s official listing page.\n\nIf the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official company filings and the primary exchange’s official listing page. The market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the total outstanding shares and the closing price from the first day of trading.\n\nIn the event of an interruption in the normal trading session on the specified company’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that day as the first day of trading for the purposes of this market.","BW Industrial Holdings IPO Closing Market Cap is a finance prediction market that asks traders to forecast the company’s market capitalization based on the closing price of its first day of trading. The result will be determined from BW Industrial Holdings’ total outstanding shares, using official company filings and the primary exchange’s official listing page to calculate market value after the IPO begins trading. The market is scheduled around the IPO pricing date of May 27 ET, with an alternate resolution that if no IPO occurs by May 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to \"No IPO before June 2026.\" Current market probability is about 30%, suggesting traders see a limited but meaningful chance of the expected outcome. This event is relevant to IPO watchers, finance and business market participants, and anyone following event prediction and market odds around new listings. Because the contract resolves on the first official closing price, it reflects how the prediction market expects BW Industrial Holdings to be valued at the end of its debut trading session.",12855.159736000001,{"id":1014,"title":1015,"slug":1016,"category":8,"subcategory":17,"tags":1017,"probability":18,"createdAt":1018,"updatedAt":1019,"resolutionDate":1020,"description":1021,"summary":1022,"volume1wk":1023,"featured":124},"509955","OpenAI files IPO by...?","openai-files-ipo-by",[17,12,16,14,9,195,13,11,192],"2026-05-30T10:43:25.050Z","2026-05-30T10:33:57.036Z","2026-06-06T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if OpenAI files a Form S-1 or F-1 registration statement with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission by the listed date 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA qualifying filing includes either (a) a publicly available filing on the SEC's EDGAR database, or (b) a confidential submission that is explicitly confirmed by OpenAI or reported as completed by a consensus of credible reporting.\n\nA filing must be confirmed or announced as having been completed within the market's timeframe to qualify. Confirmations, announcements, or reporting that occur after the end date will not be considered, even if the filing itself occurred within the timeframe.\n\nThe primary resolution source will be official filings from the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.","OpenAI files IPO by...? is a finance prediction market asking whether OpenAI will file a Form S-1 or F-1 registration statement with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission by the listed deadline. The forecast focuses on a specific regulatory milestone for a potential OpenAI IPO, not on whether the company will ultimately go public. To resolve “Yes,” the filing must be publicly available on the SEC’s EDGAR database or be a confidential submission explicitly confirmed by OpenAI or supported by a consensus of credible reporting, and that confirmation must occur by 11:59 PM ET on June 6, 2026. After that deadline, later confirmations do not count. Current market probability is 0%, suggesting traders are not pricing in a filing within the timeframe. As an AI and Big Tech event prediction, this market reflects sentiment around OpenAI, Sam Altman, and the broader IPO and finance landscape.",11036.056370999999,{"id":1025,"title":1026,"slug":1027,"category":8,"subcategory":9,"tags":1028,"probability":1030,"createdAt":1031,"updatedAt":1032,"resolutionDate":699,"description":933,"summary":1033,"volume1wk":1034,"featured":124},"307967","SpaceX IPO Closing Market Cap","spacex-ipo-closing-market-cap",[9,15,14,11,97,12,98,16,401,1029],"Rewards 50, 4.5, 100",2.95,"2026-05-30T10:42:57.534Z","2026-05-30T10:33:21.677Z","SpaceX IPO Closing Market Cap is a finance prediction market focused on the company’s market capitalization on the closing price of its first day of trading. The forecast asks traders to estimate where SpaceX will land if and when its IPO occurs, using the official closing price and outstanding shares to determine the valuation. If no SpaceX IPO happens by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to “No IPO before 2028.” This makes the event relevant not only to IPO watchers, but also to broader tech, business, and Elon Musk-related market sentiment.\n\nThe market is active now, with current probability around 2.95%, suggesting low odds that traders assign to a near-term outcome within the listed brackets. Because the resolution depends on the primary exchange’s official listing page, the event prediction is tied to real-time listing data and a clearly defined closing valuation method. The market opens on March 25, 2026, and remains open until the IPO outcome is determined or the fallback deadline is reached.",89498.68104400001,{"id":1036,"title":1037,"slug":1038,"category":8,"subcategory":32,"tags":1039,"probability":181,"createdAt":1041,"updatedAt":1042,"resolutionDate":21,"description":1043,"summary":1044,"volume1wk":1045,"featured":124},"79104","How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?","how-high-will-10-year-treasury-yield-go-before-2027",[32,14,33,1040,36],"Treasuries","2026-05-30T10:43:25.687Z","2026-05-30T10:33:13.401Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under \"Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates\" for the column \"10 Yr\" (see: https:\u002F\u002Fhome.treasury.gov\u002Fresource-center\u002Fdata-chart-center\u002Finterest-rates\u002FTextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).","How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027? is a finance prediction market focused on the upper range of the U.S. Treasury 10-year yield over a defined period. The market resolves “Yes” if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or exceeds the listed threshold on any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, using the Department of the Treasury’s Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates as the resolution source. In plain terms, traders are forecasting whether long-term U.S. interest rates will climb to a specified level before the end of 2026.\n\nThis event matters because the 10-year Treasury yield is a key benchmark for borrowing costs, bond pricing, and broader economic expectations. Market sentiment on this prediction market reflects views on Fed rates, inflation, growth, and Jerome Powell’s policy backdrop. The current market probability is 100%, indicating the event is already priced as fully expected by traders. As a finance forecast, it provides a clear signal of market odds and expected outcome for Treasury yields during the stated timeframe.",10574.560595,{"id":1047,"title":1048,"slug":1049,"category":8,"subcategory":34,"tags":1050,"probability":219,"createdAt":1051,"updatedAt":1052,"resolutionDate":21,"description":1053,"summary":1054,"volume1wk":1055,"featured":124},"145648","Jerome Powell out of Fed Board by…?","jerome-powell-out-from-fed-board-by",[34,458,32,30,33,35,469],"2026-05-30T10:43:18.951Z","2026-05-30T10:33:09.516Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if Jerome Powell ceases to hold a position on the Federal Reserve Board of Governors for any period of time between this market's creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThis market is not limited to Jerome Powell’s current position as chair of the Federal Reserve. If Jerome Powell ceases to be Chair of the Federal Reserve, but remains a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, this will not qualify for a “Yes” resolution.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be information from the U.S. Government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.","Jerome Powell out of Fed Board by…? is a finance prediction market asking whether Jerome Powell will cease to hold any position on the Federal Reserve Board of Governors before the market’s deadline on December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. The forecast is specific: it resolves to “Yes” only if Powell leaves the Board at any point during the event window. If he remains a Board member, even if he stops serving as Chair of the Federal Reserve, the market resolves to “No.”\n\nThis event matters because Powell’s status is closely tied to U.S. economic policy, Fed rates, and broader market expectations around monetary leadership. Current market probability is around 35%, suggesting traders see a meaningful but not dominant chance of the expected outcome. As with other prediction market events, sentiment may shift with government announcements, credible reporting, or changes in the political environment involving the Fed and figures such as Trump. The resolution will rely on U.S. government information, with credible consensus reporting also accepted.",16177.546316,{"id":1057,"title":1058,"slug":1059,"category":8,"subcategory":86,"tags":1060,"probability":38,"createdAt":1064,"updatedAt":1065,"resolutionDate":1066,"description":1067,"summary":1068,"volume1wk":1069,"featured":124},"435097","Will gas hit __ by end of May?","will-gas-hit-by-end-of-may",[86,85,1061,14,1062,36,1063,809],"AAA","Iran","gas","2026-05-30T10:43:19.121Z","2026-05-30T10:32:46.015Z","2026-05-31T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if on any day between market creation and May 31, 2026, the average US regular gas price is equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, the market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nOnly the first two decimal digits of the reported price will be considered (e.g., if the price is reported as $3.257, this market will use $3.25 as the price).\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be information from the American Automobile Association (AAA), presently found here: https:\u002F\u002Fgasprices.aaa.com\u002F. Specifically, the cell under \"Regular\" and for the row \"Current Avg\".","Will gas hit __ by end of May? is a finance prediction market focused on whether the average US regular gasoline price, as reported by AAA, will reach or exceed a listed threshold by May 31, 2026. The event resolves to Yes if the AAA “Current Avg” under “Regular” meets the target on any day between market creation and the deadline; otherwise it resolves to No. Only the first two decimal places of the reported price count, which makes the resolution rule precise and data-driven.\n\nThis forecast matters because gasoline prices are a closely watched signal for inflation, consumer costs, and broader energy-market conditions. Traders in this oil and commodities market are effectively pricing in the expected outcome for US gas prices over the remaining window. The current market probability is about 45%, suggesting a fairly balanced view of whether gas will hit the threshold before the end of May. With the start date on April 30, 2026 and the market ending May 31, 2026, sentiment will likely continue to shift with AAA price updates and changes in crude oil, supply, and demand.",15681.391331000003,{"id":1071,"title":1072,"slug":1073,"category":8,"subcategory":12,"tags":1074,"probability":18,"createdAt":1075,"updatedAt":1076,"resolutionDate":953,"description":1077,"summary":1078,"volume1wk":1079,"featured":124},"385555","3rd largest company end of May?","3rd-largest-company-end-of-may",[12,15,14,9,36],"2026-05-30T10:42:51.029Z","2026-05-30T10:31:55.275Z","This market will resolve to the third-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31, 2026, as of market close.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.","“3rd largest company end of May?” is a finance prediction market in the Big Tech category that asks which company will be the third-largest in the world by market capitalization at the close on May 31, 2026. Traders are forecasting a ranking outcome rather than a business event, so the market focuses on market cap changes among major technology and other global companies as reported by credible sources. The forecast resolves using a consensus of credible reporting, which helps determine the expected outcome at market close. This event matters because shifts in company valuations can quickly change the standings of the world’s largest firms, making it a closely watched Big Tech and business benchmark. The market opened on April 17, 2026, and runs through the May 31 deadline. With no probability value provided here, market sentiment and odds must be inferred from trading activity rather than a published estimate. As a prediction market, it reflects trader expectations about which company will hold the third spot at the end of the month.",261737.157484,{"id":1081,"title":1082,"slug":1083,"category":8,"subcategory":9,"tags":1084,"probability":1085,"createdAt":1086,"updatedAt":1087,"resolutionDate":103,"description":933,"summary":1088,"volume1wk":1089,"featured":124},"183726","SpaceX IPO Closing Market Cap (Lower Strikes)","spacex-ipo-closing-market-cap-higher-strikes",[9,16,14,97,12,753,11,401,98,99],4.6,"2026-05-30T10:42:57.150Z","2026-05-30T10:31:32.974Z","SpaceX IPO Closing Market Cap (Lower Strikes) is a finance prediction market on the company’s valuation when SpaceX first begins trading publicly. The forecast resolves using SpaceX’s market capitalization at the official closing price on its first day of trading, based on the primary exchange listing page or another reliable source if needed. If no SpaceX IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, the market resolves to “No IPO before 2028.”\n\nThis event matters because an IPO would be a major milestone for SpaceX, the private aerospace and space company closely associated with Elon Musk and the broader Big Tech and space sectors. Traders are effectively pricing the expected outcome of SpaceX’s debut market cap into bracketed ranges, with the lower-strike structure determining which valuation band is selected. If the final value lands exactly between two brackets, the higher range wins.\n\nCurrent market probability is about 4.6%, suggesting traders see a relatively low chance of this outcome at present. The prediction market opened on January 23, 2026 and runs through the December 31, 2027 deadline, making timing a key factor in the forecast and overall market sentiment.",95110.33739599999,{"id":1091,"title":1092,"slug":1093,"category":8,"subcategory":32,"tags":1094,"probability":1096,"createdAt":1097,"updatedAt":1098,"resolutionDate":21,"description":1099,"summary":1100,"volume1wk":1101,"featured":124},"84803","What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?","what-will-fed-rate-hit-before-2027",[32,1095,36,35,30,34,33],"Macro Indicators",3.25,"2026-05-30T10:43:10.909Z","2026-05-30T10:31:02.002Z","The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.\n\nThis market will resolve to “Yes” if the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds rate reaches the specified level at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”\n\nEmergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at:\nhttps:\u002F\u002Fwww.federalreserve.gov\u002Fmonetarypolicy\u002Fopenmarket.htm.\n\nThis market may resolve as soon as the relevant data showing the reached level is published.","What will Fed Rate hit before 2027? is a finance prediction market focused on the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds rate and whether its lower or upper bound reaches a specified level before the end of 2026. The market resolves “Yes” if that level is reached at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET, based on official Federal Reserve data, including any emergency rate cuts or hikes outside regular FOMC meetings. As a macro indicators event tied to Jerome Powell, Fed policy, and broader economic policy, it reflects how traders are pricing the path of U.S. interest rates amid changing inflation and growth conditions. Current market probability is about 3.25%, suggesting the expected outcome is still a relatively low-probability move at this stage. The prediction market’s odds will continue to shift with new Federal Reserve decisions, meeting outcomes, and published rate data, making it a closely watched event for anyone tracking Fed rates, market sentiment, and financial forecast expectations through late 2026.",25149.519967999997,1781606298905]