[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":651},["ShallowReactive",2],{"category-events-finance":3,"category-content-finance":378},[4,25,46,64,81,94,106,121,133,144,154,164,175,187,201,212,225,237,252,263,276,288,301,312,323,335,347,358,369,381,392,405,420,430,441,453,468,483,496,506,517,529,540,553,564,577,587,599,608,620,631],{"id":5,"title":6,"slug":7,"category":8,"subcategory":9,"tags":10,"probability":17,"createdAt":18,"updatedAt":19,"resolutionDate":20,"description":21,"summary":22,"volume1wk":23,"featured":24},"101772","Fed Decision in June?","fed-decision-in-june-825","FINANCE","Economic Policy",[9,11,12,13,14,15,16],"Jerome Powell","Fed Rates","Fed","Politics","Economy","fomc",0.75,"2026-05-30T10:42:43.783Z","2026-05-30T10:39:31.611Z","2026-06-17T00:00:00.000Z","The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.\n\nThis market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's June 2026 meeting.\n\nIf the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut\u002Fincrease of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for June 16-17, 2026 according to the official calendar: https:\u002F\u002Fwww.federalreserve.gov\u002Fmonetarypolicy\u002Ffomccalendars.htm.\n\nThe level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https:\u002F\u002Fwww.federalreserve.gov\u002Fmonetarypolicy\u002Fopenmarket.htm.\n\nThis market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the \"No change\" bracket.\n","Fed Decision in June? is a finance prediction market tracking whether the Federal Reserve will change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate after the FOMC meeting scheduled for June 16-17, 2026. The forecast is based on the size of the rate move versus the level in place before the June 2026 meeting, with changes rounded to the nearest 25 basis points if the Fed announces an amount not listed in the market. Resolution depends on the FOMC statement or official Federal Reserve rate publication, and the market may resolve as soon as the June meeting statement is released. If no statement is issued by the end date, the market resolves to “No change.”\n\nAs of the latest update, traders are assigning about a 75% probability to this event outcome, reflecting market sentiment around the Fed rates decision, Jerome Powell, and broader economic policy expectations. The event is relevant for anyone following monetary policy, inflation signals, and the direction of U.S. interest rates.",11018139.856811013,true,{"id":26,"title":27,"slug":28,"category":8,"subcategory":29,"tags":30,"probability":39,"createdAt":40,"updatedAt":41,"resolutionDate":42,"description":43,"summary":44,"volume1wk":45,"featured":24},"500753","Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?","will-anthropics-valuation-hit-by-december-31","Finance",[29,31,32,33,34,35,36,37,38],"Privates","llm","anthropic","Dario Amodei","Tech","Claude","Big Tech","AI",9.5,"2026-05-30T10:42:48.493Z","2026-05-30T10:39:17.878Z","2027-01-01T12:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Anthropic's private market valuation, as measured by the NPM Price reported by Nasdaq Private Market, LLC (NPM) for any date between market creation and December 31, 2026, reaches or exceeds the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nNPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day.\n\nIf NPM has not published relevant data for all business dates in the specified period by 1:00 PM ET on January 1, 2027, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on January 4, 2027. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the data available.\n\nIf NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published for the period prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as any applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing.\n\nIf the company completes an IPO or direct listing before the end of the specified period, this market will consider, in addition to the relevant NPM valuations published between market creation and the IPO or direct listing date, the valuation implied by the official IPO or direct listing price, and the company's public market capitalization between the IPO or direct listing date and the end of the specified period.\n\nPublic market capitalization will be determined using the highest\u002Flowest official regular-hours trading price published for the company's primary listed common equity on its primary exchange for any trading day during the specified period, multiplied by the company's total outstanding common shares at the relevant time.\n\nIf the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.\n\nIf the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, only NPM valuations and applicable public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is NPM data published here: (https:\u002F\u002Ffe.secondmarket.com\u002Fcompanies\u002Fcompany-3e197763-4ff8-4d8c-bd1f-cc2792937757\u002Fdata?return_url=https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket.com\u002Ffinance\u002Fprivates). The resolution source for any period following an IPO, direct listing, or relevant corporate action, will be official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.\n\nRevisions to previously published NPM data made after their initial release will not be considered, unless made to correct clearly erroneous data.","Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31? is a finance prediction market tracking whether Anthropic’s private company valuation will reach or exceed the listed threshold by the end of 2026. The market resolves based on Nasdaq Private Market (NPM) Price data, with daily updates published for trading days only, and it can also account for an IPO, direct listing, or other public-market valuation signals if those occur before the deadline. In plain terms, traders are forecasting the expected outcome for Anthropic’s valuation using private-market and, if applicable, public-market data. The event matters because Anthropic is one of the most closely watched AI companies, alongside references in the market to Claude, Dario Amodei, and the broader private tech and Big Tech landscape. Current market probability is about 9.5%, suggesting sentiment leans toward the valuation not reaching the target, though prediction market odds can change as new data arrives. The market starts on May 19, 2026 and is scheduled to close on January 1, 2027, with the resolution window extending briefly if final NPM data is delayed.",576307.674421,{"id":47,"title":48,"slug":49,"category":8,"subcategory":29,"tags":50,"probability":58,"createdAt":59,"updatedAt":60,"resolutionDate":61,"description":48,"summary":62,"volume1wk":63,"featured":24},"415443","What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in May 2026?","what-price-will-wti-hit-in-may-2026",[29,51,52,53,54,55,56,57],"Monthly","Hit Price","Hide From New","Finance Updown","Pyth Finance","Commodities","Oil",0,"2026-05-30T10:42:43.693Z","2026-05-30T10:38:59.671Z","2026-05-31T17:00:00.000Z","What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in May 2026? is a finance prediction market focused on the monthly price range of West Texas Intermediate crude oil. Traders are forecasting which price level WTI will reach during the May 2026 contract window, making this an event prediction tied to commodity markets and oil price volatility. The market opens on April 25, 2026 and resolves by May 31, 2026, so the outcome depends on where WTI trades before the end of the month. This type of forecast matters because crude oil prices influence energy markets, inflation expectations, transport costs, and broader financial sentiment. Market participants use the prediction market to express views on supply, demand, geopolitics, and macroeconomic conditions affecting oil. Current market data shows substantial activity, with strong volume and liquidity, indicating meaningful trader interest, but no probability figure is available here to quantify the odds. As a result, the listing reflects an active commodity forecast rather than a guaranteed price target.",12887084.736748997,{"id":65,"title":66,"slug":67,"category":8,"subcategory":35,"tags":68,"probability":74,"createdAt":75,"updatedAt":76,"resolutionDate":77,"description":78,"summary":79,"volume1wk":80,"featured":24},"102007","SpaceX IPO closing market cap above ___ ?","spacex-ipo-closing-market-cap-above",[35,37,69,70,71,72,73],"Elon Musk","IPO","SpaceX","IPOs","Climate & Science",98.65,"2026-05-30T10:42:46.312Z","2026-05-30T10:34:08.685Z","2027-12-31T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if the official closing price for SpaceX’s market capitalization on its first trading day is above the value specified in the title. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.\n\nIf no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nMarket capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.\n\nResolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.\n\nIn the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on SpaceX’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading.","SpaceX IPO closing market cap above ___ ? is a finance prediction market asking whether SpaceX’s official market capitalization on its first trading day will finish above the threshold named in the title. The event is tied to a potential SpaceX IPO and will resolve “Yes” only if the company’s closing price on day one, multiplied by outstanding shares, produces a market cap above that level; otherwise it resolves “No.” If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, the market resolves to “No.”\n\nThis event matters because SpaceX is one of the most closely watched private technology companies, and any public listing would be a major benchmark for valuation in the tech and IPO markets. Current market sentiment is strongly tilted toward a “Yes” outcome, with traders pricing the forecast probability at 98.65%. That implies the market expects the first-day valuation to clear the stated threshold, though the outcome still depends on an actual IPO and the official closing price on the primary exchange’s listing page. The prediction market starts on December 11, 2025 and remains open through the 2027 deadline.",1314816.7019979998,{"id":82,"title":83,"slug":84,"category":8,"subcategory":85,"tags":86,"probability":87,"createdAt":88,"updatedAt":89,"resolutionDate":90,"description":91,"summary":92,"volume1wk":93,"featured":24},"447964","Will GameStop acquire eBay?","will-gamestop-acquire-ebay","Acquisitions",[85,29],15.5,"2026-05-30T10:43:00.923Z","2026-05-30T10:32:09.513Z","2026-12-31T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if it is officially announced that eBay will be, has been, or is being acquired by or merged with GameStop, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nMergers or acquisitions involving eBay or its parent company, eBay Inc., and GameStop or its parent company (if applicable), will qualify.\n\nAn announcement by eBay or GameStop within this market's timeframe will qualify for a \"Yes\" resolution, regardless of whether or when the announced acquisition\u002Fmerger actually occurs.\n\nAnnouncements of partial sales may count, as long as GameStop acquires a controlling interest in eBay. A “controlling interest” refers to a change in ownership sufficient to control the company’s strategic decisions (typically more than 50% of equity, or equivalent control via voting and governance rights). Transactions or investments that do not result in a transfer of controlling interest will not count.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from eBay and GameStop; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.","Will GameStop acquire eBay? is a finance prediction market in the Acquisitions category that asks whether GameStop will officially announce an acquisition of eBay, or a merger involving the two companies, by December 31, 2026. The market resolves to Yes if an official announcement confirms that eBay is being acquired by, or merged with, GameStop or a relevant parent company; it can also resolve Yes if GameStop gains a controlling interest through a partial sale or similar transaction. Deals that do not transfer control do not qualify.\n\nThis event matters because it tracks a potential large-cap technology and retail transaction involving GameStop and eBay Inc., two widely recognized public companies. For traders, the forecast centers on whether market sentiment supports a takeover announcement within the stated timeframe. As of the latest update, the market probability is 15.5%, indicating relatively low odds that the expected outcome will be a confirmed acquisition or merger before the deadline. The prediction market remains active through the end of 2026, with official company statements and credible reporting serving as the primary resolution sources.",59904.90449199998,{"id":95,"title":96,"slug":97,"category":8,"subcategory":35,"tags":98,"probability":58,"createdAt":101,"updatedAt":102,"resolutionDate":90,"description":103,"summary":104,"volume1wk":105,"featured":24},"68543","OpenAI IPO by...?","openai-ipo-by",[35,72,37,38,29,99,70,100],"Business","OpenAI IPO","2026-05-30T10:42:54.796Z","2026-05-30T10:32:02.168Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by the listed date ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.\n\nIf OpenAI is acquired by another company that is already public, this market will immediately resolve to \"No.\"\n\nThe resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.","OpenAI IPO by...? is a finance prediction market tracking whether OpenAI will complete an initial public offering by the listed deadline. The market resolves to Yes only if official company announcements or credible news sources confirm that OpenAI has gone public on a recognized stock exchange; if OpenAI is acquired by another public company, it resolves to No. As a result, traders are forecasting not just an IPO, but the broader corporate path OpenAI may take as one of the most closely watched AI and Big Tech companies. The event runs through the listed end date of 2026-12-31 ET, making it a long-dated event prediction with implications for tech, IPO, and business market sentiment. Current market probability is 0%, indicating that traders are not assigning meaningful odds to an OpenAI IPO by the deadline at this time. For search and indexing, this OpenAI IPO market sits at the intersection of finance, AI, and tech IPO forecasting, and it reflects how prediction markets price expectations around major corporate milestones.",134340.01467,{"id":107,"title":108,"slug":109,"category":8,"subcategory":31,"tags":110,"probability":113,"createdAt":114,"updatedAt":115,"resolutionDate":116,"description":117,"summary":118,"volume1wk":119,"featured":120},"500559","Will Stripe's valuation hit __ by June 30?","will-stripes-valuation-hit-by-june-30",[31,29,111,112,35,37],"Stripe","Payments",6,"2026-05-30T10:43:19.209Z","2026-05-30T10:40:25.182Z","2026-07-01T12:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Stripe's private market valuation, as measured by the NPM Price reported by Nasdaq Private Market, LLC (NPM) for any date between market creation and June 30, 2026, reaches or exceeds the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nNPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day.\n\nIf NPM has not published relevant data for all business dates in the specified period by 1:00 PM ET on July 1, 2026, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on July 4, 2026. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the data available.\n\nIf NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published for the period prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as any applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing.\nIf the company completes an IPO or direct listing before the end of the specified period, this market will consider, in addition to the relevant NPM valuations published between market creation and the IPO or direct listing date, the valuation implied by the official IPO or direct listing price, and the company's public market capitalization between the IPO or direct listing date and the end of the specified period.\n\nPublic market capitalization will be determined using the highest\u002Flowest official regular-hours trading price published for the company's primary listed common equity on its primary exchange for any trading day during the specified period, multiplied by the company's total outstanding common shares at the relevant time.\n\nIf the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.\n\nIf the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, only NPM valuations and applicable public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is NPM data published here (https:\u002F\u002Ffe.secondmarket.com\u002Fcompanies\u002Fcompany-6edded11-6786-4392-9695-3cce6fda0de0\u002Fdata?return_url=https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket.com\u002Ffinance\u002Fprivates). The resolution source for any period following an IPO, direct listing, or relevant corporate action, will be official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.\n\nRevisions to previously published NPM data made after their initial release will not be considered, unless made to correct clearly erroneous data.","Will Stripe's valuation hit __ by June 30? is a finance prediction market asking whether Stripe’s private market valuation will reach or exceed a specified level at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026. The forecast is based on Nasdaq Private Market (NPM) price data, with daily updates published on trading days and used to determine the expected outcome. If Stripe completes an IPO or direct listing before the deadline, official exchange pricing and public market capitalization can also factor into resolution. If the company is acquired or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity, only valuation data available before that transaction will count. Market sentiment currently implies a low probability of about 6%, suggesting traders see the threshold as unlikely to be reached. The event is relevant to finance and private markets watchers because Stripe is a major payments and tech company, and its valuation is often treated as a signal for broader private-company pricing in the big tech sector. The market is scheduled to run through July 1, 2026, with a possible extension if all relevant NPM data is not yet available.",15621.907764000001,false,{"id":122,"title":123,"slug":124,"category":8,"subcategory":38,"tags":125,"probability":126,"createdAt":127,"updatedAt":128,"resolutionDate":129,"description":130,"summary":131,"volume1wk":132,"featured":120},"48300","Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap","anthropic-ipo-closing-market-cap",[38,70,35,37,33,72,29],0.15,"2026-05-30T10:43:05.995Z","2026-05-30T10:40:23.085Z","2026-06-30T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve based on Anthropic's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.\n\nIf no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"No IPO by June 30, 2026\".\n\nMarket capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.\n\nIf the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nResolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.\n\nIn the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Anthropic’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.","Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap is a finance prediction market that asks traders to forecast Anthropic’s market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading. The event centers on whether the AI company completes an initial public offering and, if so, what valuation bracket it lands in based on the official first-day closing price and shares outstanding. If Anthropic does not go public by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to “No IPO by June 30, 2026.”\n\nThis event matters because Anthropic is one of the most closely watched AI companies, and its IPO would be a key signal for broader tech and Big Tech market sentiment. Current market probability is about 15%, suggesting traders see a relatively low but still meaningful chance of an IPO-related resolution before the deadline. The forecast relies on official exchange data, with fallback sourcing if the primary listing page does not show the relevant figure. The market opened on September 23, 2025 and runs through June 30, 2026, making it a long-dated event prediction tied to AI, IPOs, and finance.",37997.307443000005,{"id":134,"title":135,"slug":136,"category":8,"subcategory":29,"tags":137,"probability":138,"createdAt":139,"updatedAt":140,"resolutionDate":141,"description":135,"summary":142,"volume1wk":143,"featured":120},"522294","What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in June 2026?","what-price-will-wti-hit-in-june-2026",[29,51,52,53,54,55,56,57],0.45,"2026-05-30T10:43:08.617Z","2026-05-30T10:40:20.458Z","2026-06-30T17:00:00.000Z","What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in June 2026? is a finance prediction market focused on the monthly price range for West Texas Intermediate crude oil. Traders are forecasting which price level WTI will reach during the June 2026 contract window, making this an event prediction tied to commodity markets, oil prices, and broader energy market sentiment. The market opened on 2026-05-25 and runs through 2026-06-30 at 17:00 UTC, so the expected outcome will be determined by WTI’s performance over that period. Current market probability is about 45%, suggesting a fairly balanced outlook rather than a strong consensus. As with other hit-price markets, traders use the forecast to express expectations about supply, demand, geopolitical risk, and short-term volatility in crude oil. This event is relevant for participants following finance, commodities, and oil markets, especially those tracking how prediction market odds reflect changing sentiment around WTI Crude Oil in June 2026.",30541.367655,{"id":145,"title":146,"slug":147,"category":8,"subcategory":35,"tags":148,"probability":126,"createdAt":149,"updatedAt":150,"resolutionDate":77,"description":151,"summary":152,"volume1wk":153,"featured":120},"98374","SpaceX IPO Closing Market Cap (Lowest Strikes)","spacex-ipo-closing-market-cap-lowest-strikes",[35,37,69,71,72,70,73],"2026-05-30T10:42:52.481Z","2026-05-30T10:40:18.022Z","This market will resolve based on SpaceX's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.\n\nIf no SpaceX IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"No IPO before 2028\".\n\nMarket capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.\n\nIf the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nResolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.\n\nIn the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on SpaceX’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.","SpaceX IPO Closing Market Cap (Lowest Strikes) is a finance prediction market tracking the company’s market capitalization at the official closing price on the first day SpaceX begins trading. The forecast is straightforward: traders are estimating which valuation bracket SpaceX will land in if an IPO occurs, with the market resolving to the appropriate range based on the primary exchange’s official listing page or another reliable source if needed. If SpaceX does not IPO by December 31, 2027 at 11:59 PM ET, the event resolves to \"No IPO before 2028.\"\n\nThis event matters because SpaceX, Elon Musk’s private aerospace and technology company, is one of the most closely watched potential IPOs in the market. The current market probability for the lowest strike outcome is about 15%, indicating limited but present trader conviction that the opening valuation could fall in that bracket. Market sentiment here reflects broader expectations around a future SpaceX listing, first-day trading performance, and the company’s eventual market cap. The prediction market is active, and the odds will continue to shift as traders weigh IPO timing, listing mechanics, and the final closing price on day one.",186816.79667399998,{"id":155,"title":156,"slug":157,"category":8,"subcategory":72,"tags":158,"probability":58,"createdAt":159,"updatedAt":160,"resolutionDate":90,"description":161,"summary":162,"volume1wk":163,"featured":120},"200421","In which month will SpaceX IPO?","in-which-month-will-spacex-ipo",[72,29,99,70,69,71],"2026-05-30T10:43:06.215Z","2026-05-30T10:40:11.222Z","This market will resolve based on the calendar month (ET) in 2026 in which SpaceX’s initial public offering (IPO) occurs.\n\nIf no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"No IPO before 2027\".\n\nAnnouncements, filings, or scheduling of an IPO will not suffice; this market will resolve after public trading has begun.\n\nResolution will be based on information from the primary exchange.","In which month will SpaceX IPO? is a finance prediction market asking traders to forecast the calendar month in 2026 when SpaceX will complete its initial public offering, or whether no IPO will happen before 2027. The market resolves only when public trading has actually begun, so announcements, filings, or IPO scheduling alone are not enough. If SpaceX does not go public by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET, the outcome is \"No IPO before 2027.\" This makes the event a straightforward test of market sentiment around one of the most closely watched IPO possibilities in business and finance.\n\nAs of the latest market data, the implied probability is 0, though traders have still generated meaningful volume and liquidity, suggesting active interest in the forecast. The event is tied to SpaceX and Elon Musk, with resolution based on information from the primary exchange. For investors, analysts, and prediction market observers, this IPO event prediction reflects expectations about timing, not valuation, and it remains open through the end of 2026.",37069.872020999996,{"id":165,"title":166,"slug":167,"category":8,"subcategory":72,"tags":168,"probability":169,"createdAt":170,"updatedAt":171,"resolutionDate":90,"description":172,"summary":173,"volume1wk":174,"featured":120},"79048","IPOs before 2027?","ipos-before-2027",[72,99,37,35,29],58.4,"2026-05-30T10:42:51.123Z","2026-05-30T10:39:32.061Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the listed company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements or credible news sources. The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.\n\nIf the listed company merges with another entity, is acquired, or ceases to exist before the market resolves, the market will also resolve to \"No\".\n\nThis market will resolve early if the listed company completes an IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.","IPOs before 2027? is a finance prediction market tracking whether the listed company will complete an initial public offering by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The forecast is straightforward: traders are betting on whether the company will go public on a recognized stock exchange before the deadline, or whether it will instead merge, be acquired, or cease to exist before resolution. Because the market resolves on the basis of official company announcements or credible news sources, it reflects real-time event prediction rather than speculation alone.\n\nThis event matters for investors, analysts, and anyone following Big Tech, tech, and broader business listings, since IPO timing can signal market conditions, fundraising strategy, and corporate direction. The current market probability is about 58.4%, suggesting a slight market expectation that an IPO will happen before 2027, though that outcome is not guaranteed. With the end date set for December 31, 2026, market sentiment may shift as new filings, announcements, or acquisition news emerge.",250367.32155599998,{"id":176,"title":177,"slug":178,"category":8,"subcategory":99,"tags":179,"probability":181,"createdAt":182,"updatedAt":183,"resolutionDate":90,"description":184,"summary":185,"volume1wk":186,"featured":120},"51456","How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?","how-many-fed-rate-cuts-in-2026",[99,12,11,9,13,15,29,180],"Rewards 200, 4.5, 50",67.25,"2026-05-30T10:42:45.795Z","2026-05-30T10:39:15.480Z","This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).\n\nEmergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.\n\nFor example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).\n\nThis market will resolve early to \"No\" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.\n\nNote that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https:\u002F\u002Fwww.federalreserve.gov\u002Fmonetarypolicy\u002Ffomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https:\u002F\u002Fwww.federalreserve.gov\u002Fmonetarypolicy\u002Fopenmarket.htm.","How many Fed rate cuts in 2026? is a finance prediction market tracking the Federal Reserve’s policy path over the full 2026 calendar year. Traders are forecasting the total number of 25-basis-point rate cuts the Fed will make, including cuts announced at scheduled FOMC meetings and any emergency rate cuts outside the regular calendar. The market resolves based on official Federal Reserve and FOMC statements, with the final deadline set for December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET to capture any late-year action. In practical terms, a 50-basis-point cut would count as two cuts, while even a 1- to 24-basis-point reduction counts as one. This event matters because Fed rate cuts are a major signal for U.S. monetary policy, inflation expectations, and broader economic conditions, making it a closely watched economic policy forecast. Current market probability is 67.25%, suggesting traders currently expect a meaningful chance of the specified outcome, though the final odds can shift as the year progresses and new FOMC decisions are announced.",1679932.069899999,{"id":188,"title":189,"slug":190,"category":8,"subcategory":191,"tags":192,"probability":194,"createdAt":195,"updatedAt":196,"resolutionDate":197,"description":198,"summary":199,"volume1wk":200,"featured":120},"125865","What will Gold (GC) hit__ by end of June?","gc-hit-jun-2026","COMEX Gold Futures",[191,56,53,29,193],"Gold",0.55,"2026-05-30T10:42:50.671Z","2026-05-30T10:38:47.864Z","2026-06-30T17:30:00.000Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if, on any trading day, the official CME settlement price for the Active Month (front month) of Gold (GC) futures is equal to or above the listed price by the final trading day of June 2026. Otherwise, the market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor CME Gold (GC) futures contracts, the Active Month is the nearest of CME's designated delivery-cycle months (February, April, June, August, October, December) that is not the spot month. The Active Month changes automatically on the contract's First Position Date, at which point the next eligible contract month becomes the Active Month.\n\nOnly the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.\n\nNote that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.\n\nOnly days on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.\n\nThis market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for that trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily \"Settlement\" price for the Active Month of Gold (GC) futures.","What will Gold (GC) hit__ by end of June? is a finance prediction market on whether CME Gold futures will reach or exceed a listed price by the final trading day of June 2026. The event tracks the official CME settlement price for the Active Month (front month) Gold (GC) contract, and it resolves \"Yes\" if that settlement price is equal to or above the threshold on any trading day before the market closes at the end of June. If not, the outcome is \"No.\" \n\nThis forecast matters because it reflects trader expectations for COMEX gold futures and broader market sentiment around gold prices, with resolution based only on CME Group’s published daily settlement data. Intraday moves, last trades, and indicative prices do not count, which makes the event tightly linked to the exchange’s official methodology. \n\nThe market opened on December 26, 2025 and ends on June 30, 2026 at 17:30 UTC. Current market probability is about 55%, suggesting traders see a slightly better-than-even chance of the expected outcome. As a gold and commodities event prediction, it is closely watched by participants following commodity price levels and CME settlement behavior.",290106.11814700003,{"id":202,"title":203,"slug":204,"category":8,"subcategory":13,"tags":205,"probability":58,"createdAt":207,"updatedAt":208,"resolutionDate":20,"description":209,"summary":210,"volume1wk":211,"featured":120},"192082","Fed decisions (Mar-Jun)","fed-decisions-mar-jun",[13,206,15,12,9,11,16],"Parlays","2026-05-30T10:42:53.969Z","2026-05-30T10:38:42.953Z","The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.\n\nA qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.\n\nA qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.\n\nA qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.\n\nIf the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to \"Other\". Any rate hike will be encompassed by \"Other\".\n\nEmergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:\nhttps:\u002F\u002Fwww.federalreserve.gov\u002Fmonetarypolicy\u002Ffomccalendars.htm\n\nThe level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:\nhttps:\u002F\u002Fwww.federalreserve.gov\u002Fmonetarypolicy\u002Fopenmarket.htm","Fed decisions (Mar-Jun) is a finance prediction market on how the Federal Reserve will set the upper bound of the target federal funds rate across the next three FOMC meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17. Traders are forecasting whether each meeting will result in a qualifying cut, hike, pause, or an \"Other\" outcome if the Fed publishes a different combination. The market resolves based on the official FOMC statement after each meeting, with emergency rate cuts outside scheduled meetings excluded. This event matters because Fed decisions shape interest rates, economic policy, and broader market sentiment across the economy. As of the latest update, the market probability is 0, so no clear implied outcome is being reflected in the data. The forecast will remain active through June 17, 2026, making it a closely watched event prediction for traders tracking Fed rates, Jerome Powell, and FOMC policy direction.",149936.96671800004,{"id":213,"title":214,"slug":215,"category":8,"subcategory":29,"tags":216,"probability":219,"createdAt":220,"updatedAt":221,"resolutionDate":116,"description":222,"summary":223,"volume1wk":224,"featured":120},"500558","Will SpaceX's valuation hit __ by June 30?","will-spacexs-valuation-hit-by-june-30",[29,31,69,35,37,217,38,218],"aerospace","SpaxeX",95,"2026-05-30T10:43:00.697Z","2026-05-30T10:38:39.354Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if SpaceX's private market valuation, as measured by the NPM Price reported by Nasdaq Private Market, LLC (NPM) for any date between market creation and June 30, 2026, reaches or exceeds the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nNPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day.\n\nIf NPM has not published relevant data for all business dates in the specified period by 1:00 PM ET on July 1, 2026, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on July 4, 2026. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the data available.\n\nIf NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published for the period prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as any applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing.\n\nIf the company completes an IPO or direct listing before the end of the specified period, this market will consider, in addition to the relevant NPM valuations published between market creation and the IPO or direct listing date, the valuation implied by the official IPO or direct listing price, and the company's public market capitalization between the IPO or direct listing date and the end of the specified period.\n\nPublic market capitalization will be determined using the highest\u002Flowest official regular-hours trading price published for the company's primary listed common equity on its primary exchange for any trading day during the specified period, multiplied by the company's total outstanding common shares at the relevant time.\n\nIf the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.\n\nIf the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, only NPM valuations and applicable public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is NPM data published here: (https:\u002F\u002Ffe.secondmarket.com\u002Fcompanies\u002Fcompany-5bc8aa2b-22b5-48cc-b54a-1310145b0a86\u002Fdata?return_url=https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket.com\u002Ffinance\u002Fprivates). The resolution source for any period following an IPO, direct listing, or relevant corporate action, will be official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.\n\nRevisions to previously published NPM data made after their initial release will not be considered, unless made to correct clearly erroneous data.","Will SpaceX's valuation hit __ by June 30? is a finance prediction market focused on whether SpaceX’s private-market valuation will reach or exceed a specified threshold before the end of the forecast window. The market resolves using Nasdaq Private Market (NPM) Price data, which is published on trading days and updated once daily, with the relevant period running from market creation through June 30, 2026. If SpaceX completes an IPO or direct listing during that period, the resolution can also incorporate the implied public valuation and subsequent market capitalization data.\n\nThis event matters because SpaceX is one of the most closely watched private technology and aerospace companies, and its valuation is often treated as a signal of broader market sentiment around Elon Musk-led ventures, privates, AI-adjacent tech, and aerospace innovation. Traders in this prediction market are forecasting the expected outcome based on private-market pricing, corporate events, and any transition to public trading.\n\nCurrent market probability is about 95%, indicating strong odds that the valuation will hit the listed level before the deadline, though the result still depends on the official reference data and final resolution rules.",60289.99713,{"id":226,"title":227,"slug":228,"category":8,"subcategory":29,"tags":229,"probability":230,"createdAt":231,"updatedAt":232,"resolutionDate":233,"description":234,"summary":235,"volume1wk":236,"featured":120},"385556","2nd largest company end of May?","2nd-largest-company-end-of-may",[29,15,35,99,37],0.05,"2026-05-30T10:42:47.160Z","2026-05-30T10:38:38.881Z","2026-05-31T06:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to the second-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31, 2026, as of market close.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.","“2nd largest company end of May?” is a finance prediction market asking which company will be the second-largest in the world by market capitalization at the market close on May 31, 2026. The forecast is based on a consensus of credible reporting, and traders are effectively pricing in the expected outcome among global public companies, with a strong focus on Big Tech and other large-cap names. As of the latest market data, the probability for the event is about 5%, suggesting market sentiment currently assigns a low chance to any one company meeting the threshold at expiry. The market opened on April 17, 2026 and resolves using end-of-month valuation data, making timing important for anyone following the event prediction. Because the result depends on relative market cap rankings rather than a company’s standalone performance, the outcome can shift quickly with stock price moves, broad equity trends, and changes in investor expectations. This prediction market is relevant for participants tracking finance, economy, tech, and business categories, since it reflects how odds are being assigned to the global corporate leaderboard.",998899.903299,{"id":238,"title":239,"slug":240,"category":8,"subcategory":241,"tags":242,"probability":245,"createdAt":246,"updatedAt":247,"resolutionDate":248,"description":249,"summary":250,"volume1wk":251,"featured":120},"511309","Five Below Q1 comparable sales growth?","five-below-q1-comparable-sales-growth","Rewards 50, 4.5, 20",[241,29,243,244],"KPIs","Five Below",5,"2026-05-30T10:43:27.250Z","2026-05-30T10:38:14.585Z","2026-06-03T16:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve according to Five Below's announced comparable sales growth for the first fiscal quarter of 2026, as reported in its official company earnings materials.\n\nThe specified metric will be considered as reported in the company's official earnings materials. Subsequent revisions will not be considered.\n\nIf the specified company's official earnings materials for the specified quarter are released, and the specified metric is not included, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.\n\nIf the specified company does not release quarterly earnings materials for the specified quarter by July 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.\n\nIf the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nIf the specified metric is reported as a range rather than a specific number, the midpoint of the range will be used for resolution of this market.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is Five Below's official company earnings materials, including press releases, investor presentations, and regulatory filings. If the specified metric is not reported in these materials, recordings or transcripts of the company's earnings webcast may also be used.\n\nNote: This market will resolve based on the most numerically precise version of the specified metric reported in the company's official earnings materials. Only the specified metric will be considered; alternate versions that differ in definition or scope from the specified metric will not be considered.","Five Below Q1 comparable sales growth? is a finance prediction market focused on the retailer’s announced comparable sales growth for the first fiscal quarter of 2026. The forecast resolves using Five Below’s official company earnings materials, including press releases, investor presentations, regulatory filings, or earnings webcast transcripts if needed. Traders are effectively pricing the expected outcome for this KPI, with current market probability around 5%, suggesting low odds that the reported result will land in the higher ranges. The event matters because comparable sales are a key retail performance metric and often influence how investors interpret demand trends, store productivity, and execution at Five Below. The market is scheduled around the company’s reporting timeline, with resolution tied to the Q1 2026 earnings release process and a deadline of July 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET if materials are not published. As an event prediction, this market tracks whether Five Below can report comparable sales growth that meets or exceeds the bracket structure used for resolution.",9700.283042,{"id":253,"title":254,"slug":255,"category":8,"subcategory":13,"tags":256,"probability":257,"createdAt":258,"updatedAt":259,"resolutionDate":20,"description":260,"summary":261,"volume1wk":262,"featured":120},"106884","Fed rate cut by...?","fed-rate-cut-by-629",[13,11,15,9,12,29],1.6,"2026-05-30T10:42:50.812Z","2026-05-30T10:38:03.467Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is decreased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting for January 2026, currently scheduled for January 27-28. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nIf no January meeting takes place by February 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to \"No\". \n\nEmergency rate cuts will qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https:\u002F\u002Fwww.federalreserve.gov\u002Fmonetarypolicy\u002Fopenmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.","Fed rate cut by...? is a prediction market on whether the Federal Reserve will lower the upper bound of the target federal funds rate before the January 2026 FOMC meeting concludes. The market resolves to “Yes” if the Fed announces a rate cut at any point between December 16, 2025 and the end of the January 27-28, 2026 meeting; if no qualifying cut occurs by the specified February 7, 2026 cutoff, it resolves to “No.” Emergency rate cuts also count. This event matters because Fed policy is a key driver of inflation expectations, borrowing costs, and broader financial conditions, making it closely watched by traders, economists, and market participants following Jerome Powell and the Federal Reserve. As of the latest data, the market probability is about 1.6%, suggesting traders currently assign a low chance of an imminent rate cut. That sentiment reflects the event prediction embedded in Fed rates, economic policy, and the wider finance category. Resolution will rely primarily on official Federal Reserve communications, with credible reporting used as backup when needed.",275213.65961999993,{"id":264,"title":265,"slug":266,"category":8,"subcategory":35,"tags":267,"probability":270,"createdAt":271,"updatedAt":272,"resolutionDate":90,"description":273,"summary":274,"volume1wk":275,"featured":120},"86832","Which companies will be acquired before 2027?","which-companies-will-be-acquired-before-2027",[35,268,99,29,37,38,85,269],"Prediction Markets","buy",100,"2026-05-30T10:43:11.706Z","2026-05-30T10:37:07.367Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if credible reporting confirms that any entity enters into an agreement to acquire the listed company by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nMergers where the listed company is subsumed by another entity will count toward a \"Yes\" resolution.\n\nAn announced agreement between the listed company and an acquiring entity will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the acquisition is ultimately completed.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market is official information from the listed company and\u002For its leadership; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.","Which companies will be acquired before 2027? is a finance prediction market focused on whether any listed company will enter into an acquisition agreement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The market resolves to “Yes” if credible reporting confirms that a company agrees to be acquired, including mergers where the target is subsumed by another entity, even if the deal is not ultimately completed. In practice, traders are forecasting expected outcomes across tech, big tech, AI, and broader business acquisition activity. The primary resolution source is official information from the listed company or its leadership, with credible reporting also accepted when it shows consensus. The market is active from November 24, 2025 through the end-date deadline in 2026, making the timing relevant for event prediction and market sentiment. Current market probability is 100%, indicating the market is fully pricing in a Yes resolution at the moment, though prediction market odds can change as new acquisition reports emerge.",23827.588994,{"id":277,"title":278,"slug":279,"category":8,"subcategory":16,"tags":280,"probability":281,"createdAt":282,"updatedAt":283,"resolutionDate":284,"description":285,"summary":286,"volume1wk":287,"featured":120},"287395","Fed Decision in July?","fed-decision-in-july-181",[16,9,15,11,13,12,14],92.5,"2026-05-30T10:42:48.329Z","2026-05-30T10:36:46.860Z","2026-07-29T00:00:00.000Z","The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.\n\nThis market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.\n\nIf the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut\u002Fincrease of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https:\u002F\u002Fwww.federalreserve.gov\u002Fmonetarypolicy\u002Ffomccalendars.htm.\n\nThe level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https:\u002F\u002Fwww.federalreserve.gov\u002Fmonetarypolicy\u002Fopenmarket.htm.\n\nThis market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the \"No change\" bracket.","Fed Decision in July? is a finance prediction market focused on the Federal Reserve’s July 2026 FOMC meeting and the resulting change in the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The forecast asks traders to predict whether the Fed will raise, cut, or leave rates unchanged, with outcomes measured in basis points and rounded to the nearest 25 bps if the move is not listed exactly. This matters because the FOMC’s July 28-29, 2026 statement is a key signal for U.S. monetary policy, inflation expectations, and broader market sentiment. The market is set to resolve when the Fed releases its official statement after the meeting, or by the end date if no statement is available. Current market probability is 92.5%, indicating a strong expectation in the prediction market that the referenced outcome will occur, though it is not guaranteed. Relevant entities include the Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell, FOMC, Fed rates, and economic policy. For traders following event prediction and market odds, this listing reflects how the crowd is pricing the expected outcome ahead of the July decision.",630972.5262729999,{"id":289,"title":290,"slug":291,"category":8,"subcategory":292,"tags":293,"probability":295,"createdAt":296,"updatedAt":297,"resolutionDate":77,"description":298,"summary":299,"volume1wk":300,"featured":120},"507193","Lead Bank in OpenAI's IPO?","lead-bank-in-openais-ipo","OpenAI",[292,35,99,37,294,72,100],"sam altman",8,"2026-05-30T10:43:21.495Z","2026-05-30T10:36:12.227Z","This market will resolve according to the bank that serves as the lead underwriter in the initial public offering of OpenAI.\n\nIf no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or OpenAI completes an initial public offering without a designated lead underwriter, this market will resolve to “Other.”\n\nIf multiple banks are identified as lead underwriters, this market will resolve according to the primary lead underwriter. If the hierarchy between them is unclear, this market will resolve once it is conclusively evident which bank is the primary lead underwriter, for example, through the order in which the banks are listed in the underwriting section of OpenAI's final initial public offering prospectus, once released.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official disclosures from OpenAI. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.","Lead Bank in OpenAI's IPO? is a finance prediction market asking which bank, if any, will serve as the lead underwriter in OpenAI’s initial public offering. The forecast focuses on a specific IPO outcome: the primary lead bank named in OpenAI’s official disclosures or final prospectus, with “Other” resolving the market if no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, or if the company goes public without a designated lead underwriter. Because OpenAI remains one of the most closely watched names in tech and Big Tech, the event matters to traders tracking market sentiment around Sam Altman’s company, IPO timing, and underwriting expectations. Current market probability is about 8%, suggesting participants see a lead-bank designation as possible but far from certain. The prediction market will ultimately depend on official OpenAI disclosures, though credible reporting may also help clarify the expected outcome if multiple banks are involved. With the event active through the end of 2027, it offers a long-dated event prediction tied to one of the most anticipated IPO scenarios in finance and technology.",13421.404908,{"id":302,"title":303,"slug":304,"category":8,"subcategory":71,"tags":305,"probability":58,"createdAt":307,"updatedAt":308,"resolutionDate":90,"description":309,"summary":310,"volume1wk":311,"featured":120},"183698","SpaceX IPO by ___ ?","spacex-ipo-by",[71,306,72,69,29,70],"Space","2026-05-30T10:42:49.848Z","2026-05-30T10:35:50.336Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if SpaceX (Space Exploration Technologies Corp.) completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by the listed date ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nThe IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.\n\nIf SpaceX is acquired by another company that is already public, this market will immediately resolve to \"No.\"\n\nThe resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.","SpaceX IPO by ___ ? is a finance prediction market asking whether SpaceX, formally Space Exploration Technologies Corp., will complete an initial public offering by the listed deadline. Traders are forecasting a simple yes-or-no outcome: the market resolves to “Yes” if SpaceX conducts an IPO on a recognized stock exchange before December 31, 2026 ET, based on official company announcements and credible news sources; otherwise it resolves to “No.” If SpaceX is acquired by another public company before then, the event also resolves to “No.”\n\nThis event matters because a SpaceX IPO would be a major milestone for one of the most closely watched private companies in the space sector and for Elon Musk-related finance headlines more broadly. Current market probability is 0%, indicating traders currently assign no odds to an IPO being completed within the timeframe. As with any prediction market, that figure reflects market sentiment and can change as new reporting or company actions emerge. The resolution standard depends on consensus credible coverage, making timing and verified disclosures especially important.",364043.01111200004,{"id":313,"title":314,"slug":315,"category":8,"subcategory":16,"tags":316,"probability":257,"createdAt":317,"updatedAt":318,"resolutionDate":319,"description":320,"summary":321,"volume1wk":322,"featured":120},"481717","Fed Decision in September?","fed-decision-in-september-762",[16,9,11,12,14,13,15],"2026-05-30T10:43:09.482Z","2026-05-30T10:34:54.725Z","2026-09-16T00:00:00.000Z","The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.\n\nThis market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting.\n\nIf the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut\u002Fincrease of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https:\u002F\u002Fwww.federalreserve.gov\u002Fmonetarypolicy\u002Ffomccalendars.htm.\n\nThe level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https:\u002F\u002Fwww.federalreserve.gov\u002Fmonetarypolicy\u002Fopenmarket.htm.\n\nThis market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the \"No change\" bracket.","Fed Decision in September? is a Finance prediction market centered on the Federal Reserve’s September 2026 FOMC meeting and the expected change in the upper bound of the federal funds target range. Traders are forecasting whether the Fed will raise, cut, or leave rates unchanged, with the market resolving to the basis-point change versus the level in place before the September meeting. If the adjustment is not one of the listed options, it will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points. The resolution source is the FOMC statement scheduled for September 15-16, 2026, or the Federal Reserve’s official rate publication. As of the latest data, the market probability is about 1.6%, indicating very low odds for the tracked outcome. That makes this an event prediction closely watched by participants following Fed rates, Jerome Powell, economic policy, and broader market sentiment on monetary policy. The prediction market may resolve as soon as the September FOMC statement is released, and if no statement appears by the next scheduled meeting deadline, it will settle to “No change.”",28280.230986999995,{"id":324,"title":325,"slug":326,"category":8,"subcategory":35,"tags":327,"probability":328,"createdAt":329,"updatedAt":330,"resolutionDate":331,"description":332,"summary":333,"volume1wk":334,"featured":120},"354912","Riku Dining Group IPO Closing Market Cap","riku-dining-group-ipo-closing-market-cap",[35,72,70,99,29,241],0.4,"2026-05-30T10:43:09.915Z","2026-05-30T10:34:30.506Z","2026-05-27T16:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve based on Riku Dining Group’s market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.\n\nAs of market creation, the IPO is scheduled to price on May 27 (ET). If no such IPO occurs by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"No IPO before June 2026\".\n\nMarket capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency.\n\nIt is calculated as the total number of outstanding shares, multiplied by the official closing share price of the publicly traded class on the first trading day.\n\nIf necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently.\n\nThe number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings). The closing share price on the first trading day will be determined from the primary exchange’s official listing page.\n\nIf the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official company filings and the primary exchange’s official listing page. The market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the total outstanding shares and the closing price from the first day of trading.\n\nIn the event of an interruption in the normal trading session on the specified company’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that day as the first day of trading for the purposes of this market.","Riku Dining Group IPO Closing Market Cap is a finance prediction market that forecasts the company’s market capitalization based on its closing share price on the first day of trading. In plain terms, traders are pricing the expected outcome of Riku Dining Group’s IPO and the valuation it reaches at the close, using official company filings and the primary exchange’s listing page as the main resolution sources. The market is scheduled around the IPO pricing date of May 27 ET, and if no IPO occurs by May 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET, it resolves to \"No IPO before June 2026.\" \n\nCurrent market probability is about 40%, which suggests traders see a moderate chance of this outcome occurring within the listed timeframe. Because the calculation uses outstanding shares and the official closing price, the event is closely tied to the first day of public trading rather than longer-term stock performance. As an IPO and tech-related finance event, it attracts attention from prediction market participants watching market sentiment, odds, and event prediction around Riku Dining Group’s debut.",26786.92930700002,{"id":336,"title":337,"slug":338,"category":8,"subcategory":29,"tags":339,"probability":341,"createdAt":342,"updatedAt":343,"resolutionDate":129,"description":344,"summary":345,"volume1wk":346,"featured":120},"304031","Will Elon Musk buy OnlyFans?","will-elon-musk-buy-onlyfans",[29,69,340,85,35],"Culture",0.85,"2026-05-30T10:43:17.903Z","2026-05-30T10:34:04.651Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if it is officially announced that Elon Musk, either personally or through an entity, will be, has been, or is entering into an agreement to acquire OnlyFans (or its parent company) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA qualifying acquisition or acquisition announcement must include the acquisition of a controlling interest in OnlyFans (or its parent company) by Elon Musk, either personally or through an entity. A \"controlling interest\" is defined as an ownership stake sufficient to control the company's strategic decisions, typically more than 50% of equity, or equivalent control via voting rights, governance rights, board control, or other mechanisms. Transactions or investments that do not result in a transfer of controlling interest, such as minority stake purchases, will not count.\n\nAn announcement of a qualifying acquisition by Elon Musk, OnlyFans, or their parent entities will qualify for a \"Yes\" resolution, regardless of whether the announced acquisition actually occurs.\n\nThe entity entering into the agreement does not need to be controlled by Elon Musk; his involvement as a partial owner, investor, or similar role will qualify only if the transaction results in a controlling interest as defined above.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Elon Musk and\u002For OnlyFans, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.","Will Elon Musk buy OnlyFans? is a finance prediction market asking whether Musk, personally or through an entity, will officially announce or enter into an agreement to acquire OnlyFans or its parent company by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The event focuses on a qualifying acquisition of a controlling interest, meaning a stake large enough to direct the company’s strategic decisions. Minority investments or non-controlling deals do not count under the market rules. This matters because any official acquisition announcement from Elon Musk, OnlyFans, or their parent entities would resolve the forecast to Yes even if the transaction is not ultimately completed. As a result, traders are watching market sentiment around acquisition odds, tech and culture news, and any credible reporting tied to Musk or OnlyFans. Current market probability is about 85%, suggesting participants currently see a high chance of a Yes outcome. The market remains active through the June 30, 2026 deadline, making timing and source verification central to event prediction and resolution.",17042.905688,{"id":348,"title":349,"slug":350,"category":8,"subcategory":72,"tags":351,"probability":352,"createdAt":353,"updatedAt":354,"resolutionDate":331,"description":355,"summary":356,"volume1wk":357,"featured":120},"354833","BW Industrial Holdings IPO Closing Market Cap","bw-industrial-holdings-ipo-closing-market-cap",[72,35,29,99,70,241],0.3,"2026-05-30T10:43:22.155Z","2026-05-30T10:34:00.450Z","This market will resolve based on BW Industrial Holdings’ market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.\n\nAs of market creation, the IPO is scheduled to price on May 27 (ET). If no such IPO occurs by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"No IPO before June 2026\".\n\nMarket capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency.\n\nIt is calculated as the total number of outstanding shares, multiplied by the official closing share price of the publicly traded class on the first trading day.\n\nIf necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently.\n\nThe number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings). The closing share price on the first trading day will be determined from the primary exchange’s official listing page.\n\nIf the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official company filings and the primary exchange’s official listing page. The market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the total outstanding shares and the closing price from the first day of trading.\n\nIn the event of an interruption in the normal trading session on the specified company’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that day as the first day of trading for the purposes of this market.","BW Industrial Holdings IPO Closing Market Cap is a finance prediction market that asks traders to forecast the company’s market capitalization based on the closing price of its first day of trading. The result will be determined from BW Industrial Holdings’ total outstanding shares, using official company filings and the primary exchange’s official listing page to calculate market value after the IPO begins trading. The market is scheduled around the IPO pricing date of May 27 ET, with an alternate resolution that if no IPO occurs by May 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to \"No IPO before June 2026.\" Current market probability is about 30%, suggesting traders see a limited but meaningful chance of the expected outcome. This event is relevant to IPO watchers, finance and business market participants, and anyone following event prediction and market odds around new listings. Because the contract resolves on the first official closing price, it reflects how the prediction market expects BW Industrial Holdings to be valued at the end of its debut trading session.",12855.159736000001,{"id":359,"title":360,"slug":361,"category":8,"subcategory":100,"tags":362,"probability":58,"createdAt":363,"updatedAt":364,"resolutionDate":365,"description":366,"summary":367,"volume1wk":368,"featured":120},"509955","OpenAI files IPO by...?","openai-files-ipo-by",[100,37,70,29,35,294,38,72,292],"2026-05-30T10:43:25.050Z","2026-05-30T10:33:57.036Z","2026-06-06T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if OpenAI files a Form S-1 or F-1 registration statement with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission by the listed date 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA qualifying filing includes either (a) a publicly available filing on the SEC's EDGAR database, or (b) a confidential submission that is explicitly confirmed by OpenAI or reported as completed by a consensus of credible reporting.\n\nA filing must be confirmed or announced as having been completed within the market's timeframe to qualify. Confirmations, announcements, or reporting that occur after the end date will not be considered, even if the filing itself occurred within the timeframe.\n\nThe primary resolution source will be official filings from the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.","OpenAI files IPO by...? is a finance prediction market asking whether OpenAI will file a Form S-1 or F-1 registration statement with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission by the listed deadline. The forecast focuses on a specific regulatory milestone for a potential OpenAI IPO, not on whether the company will ultimately go public. To resolve “Yes,” the filing must be publicly available on the SEC’s EDGAR database or be a confidential submission explicitly confirmed by OpenAI or supported by a consensus of credible reporting, and that confirmation must occur by 11:59 PM ET on June 6, 2026. After that deadline, later confirmations do not count. Current market probability is 0%, suggesting traders are not pricing in a filing within the timeframe. As an AI and Big Tech event prediction, this market reflects sentiment around OpenAI, Sam Altman, and the broader IPO and finance landscape.",11036.056370999999,{"id":370,"title":371,"slug":372,"category":8,"subcategory":35,"tags":373,"probability":375,"createdAt":376,"updatedAt":377,"resolutionDate":378,"description":151,"summary":379,"volume1wk":380,"featured":120},"307967","SpaceX IPO Closing Market Cap","spacex-ipo-closing-market-cap",[35,99,29,72,69,37,71,70,306,374],"Rewards 50, 4.5, 100",2.95,"2026-05-30T10:42:57.534Z","2026-05-30T10:33:21.677Z",null,"SpaceX IPO Closing Market Cap is a finance prediction market focused on the company’s market capitalization on the closing price of its first day of trading. The forecast asks traders to estimate where SpaceX will land if and when its IPO occurs, using the official closing price and outstanding shares to determine the valuation. If no SpaceX IPO happens by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to “No IPO before 2028.” This makes the event relevant not only to IPO watchers, but also to broader tech, business, and Elon Musk-related market sentiment.\n\nThe market is active now, with current probability around 2.95%, suggesting low odds that traders assign to a near-term outcome within the listed brackets. Because the resolution depends on the primary exchange’s official listing page, the event prediction is tied to real-time listing data and a clearly defined closing valuation method. The market opens on March 25, 2026, and remains open until the IPO outcome is determined or the fallback deadline is reached.",89498.68104400001,{"id":382,"title":383,"slug":384,"category":8,"subcategory":11,"tags":385,"probability":270,"createdAt":387,"updatedAt":388,"resolutionDate":90,"description":389,"summary":390,"volume1wk":391,"featured":120},"79104","How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?","how-high-will-10-year-treasury-yield-go-before-2027",[11,29,12,386,15],"Treasuries","2026-05-30T10:43:25.687Z","2026-05-30T10:33:13.401Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under \"Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates\" for the column \"10 Yr\" (see: https:\u002F\u002Fhome.treasury.gov\u002Fresource-center\u002Fdata-chart-center\u002Finterest-rates\u002FTextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).","How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027? is a finance prediction market focused on the upper range of the U.S. Treasury 10-year yield over a defined period. The market resolves “Yes” if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or exceeds the listed threshold on any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, using the Department of the Treasury’s Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates as the resolution source. In plain terms, traders are forecasting whether long-term U.S. interest rates will climb to a specified level before the end of 2026.\n\nThis event matters because the 10-year Treasury yield is a key benchmark for borrowing costs, bond pricing, and broader economic expectations. Market sentiment on this prediction market reflects views on Fed rates, inflation, growth, and Jerome Powell’s policy backdrop. The current market probability is 100%, indicating the event is already priced as fully expected by traders. As a finance forecast, it provides a clear signal of market odds and expected outcome for Treasury yields during the stated timeframe.",10574.560595,{"id":393,"title":394,"slug":395,"category":8,"subcategory":13,"tags":396,"probability":399,"createdAt":400,"updatedAt":401,"resolutionDate":90,"description":402,"summary":403,"volume1wk":404,"featured":120},"145648","Jerome Powell out of Fed Board by…?","jerome-powell-out-from-fed-board-by",[13,397,11,9,12,14,398],"Trump","Fed Chair",0.35,"2026-05-30T10:43:18.951Z","2026-05-30T10:33:09.516Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if Jerome Powell ceases to hold a position on the Federal Reserve Board of Governors for any period of time between this market's creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThis market is not limited to Jerome Powell’s current position as chair of the Federal Reserve. If Jerome Powell ceases to be Chair of the Federal Reserve, but remains a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, this will not qualify for a “Yes” resolution.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be information from the U.S. Government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.","Jerome Powell out of Fed Board by…? is a finance prediction market asking whether Jerome Powell will cease to hold any position on the Federal Reserve Board of Governors before the market’s deadline on December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. The forecast is specific: it resolves to “Yes” only if Powell leaves the Board at any point during the event window. If he remains a Board member, even if he stops serving as Chair of the Federal Reserve, the market resolves to “No.”\n\nThis event matters because Powell’s status is closely tied to U.S. economic policy, Fed rates, and broader market expectations around monetary leadership. Current market probability is around 35%, suggesting traders see a meaningful but not dominant chance of the expected outcome. As with other prediction market events, sentiment may shift with government announcements, credible reporting, or changes in the political environment involving the Fed and figures such as Trump. The resolution will rely on U.S. government information, with credible consensus reporting also accepted.",16177.546316,{"id":406,"title":407,"slug":408,"category":8,"subcategory":57,"tags":409,"probability":138,"createdAt":414,"updatedAt":415,"resolutionDate":416,"description":417,"summary":418,"volume1wk":419,"featured":120},"435097","Will gas hit __ by end of May?","will-gas-hit-by-end-of-may",[57,56,410,29,411,15,412,413],"AAA","Iran","gas","Inflation","2026-05-30T10:43:19.121Z","2026-05-30T10:32:46.015Z","2026-05-31T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if on any day between market creation and May 31, 2026, the average US regular gas price is equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, the market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nOnly the first two decimal digits of the reported price will be considered (e.g., if the price is reported as $3.257, this market will use $3.25 as the price).\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be information from the American Automobile Association (AAA), presently found here: https:\u002F\u002Fgasprices.aaa.com\u002F. Specifically, the cell under \"Regular\" and for the row \"Current Avg\".","Will gas hit __ by end of May? is a finance prediction market focused on whether the average US regular gasoline price, as reported by AAA, will reach or exceed a listed threshold by May 31, 2026. The event resolves to Yes if the AAA “Current Avg” under “Regular” meets the target on any day between market creation and the deadline; otherwise it resolves to No. Only the first two decimal places of the reported price count, which makes the resolution rule precise and data-driven.\n\nThis forecast matters because gasoline prices are a closely watched signal for inflation, consumer costs, and broader energy-market conditions. Traders in this oil and commodities market are effectively pricing in the expected outcome for US gas prices over the remaining window. The current market probability is about 45%, suggesting a fairly balanced view of whether gas will hit the threshold before the end of May. With the start date on April 30, 2026 and the market ending May 31, 2026, sentiment will likely continue to shift with AAA price updates and changes in crude oil, supply, and demand.",15681.391331000003,{"id":421,"title":422,"slug":423,"category":8,"subcategory":15,"tags":424,"probability":270,"createdAt":425,"updatedAt":426,"resolutionDate":90,"description":427,"summary":428,"volume1wk":429,"featured":120},"79123","How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?","how-low-will-10-year-treasury-yield-get-before-2027",[15,99,29,12,397,14],"2026-05-30T10:43:08.835Z","2026-05-30T10:32:42.351Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under \"Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates\" for the column \"10 Yr\" (see: https:\u002F\u002Fhome.treasury.gov\u002Fresource-center\u002Fdata-chart-center\u002Finterest-rates\u002FTextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).\n","How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027? is a finance prediction market tracking the lowest level reached by the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield before the end of 2026. The market resolves to Yes if the Treasury’s Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates show the 10 Yr yield below the specified threshold at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026; otherwise it resolves No. Because the 10-year yield is a key benchmark for borrowing costs, mortgage rates, inflation expectations, and broader fixed-income pricing, traders use this event to forecast rate direction and market sentiment around the U.S. economy and Federal Reserve policy. The resolution source is the U.S. Department of the Treasury, which makes the outcome measurable and tied to official data rather than opinion. As of the latest market data, the event shows a 100% probability, indicating the current odds are fully priced toward the listed outcome, though prediction market probabilities can change as conditions shift. Relevant tags include Economy, Business, Finance, Fed Rates, Trump, and Politics, reflecting the market’s focus on macroeconomic and policy-driven forces.",30148.82088,{"id":431,"title":432,"slug":433,"category":8,"subcategory":29,"tags":434,"probability":435,"createdAt":436,"updatedAt":437,"resolutionDate":116,"description":438,"summary":439,"volume1wk":440,"featured":120},"500547","Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by June 30?","will-anthropics-valuation-hit-by-june-30",[29,31,32,34,36,38,37,35,33],29.5,"2026-05-30T10:42:54.188Z","2026-05-30T10:32:19.974Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Anthropic's private market valuation, as measured by the NPM Price reported by Nasdaq Private Market, LLC (NPM) for any date between market creation and June 30, 2026, reaches or exceeds the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nNPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day.\n\nIf NPM has not published relevant data for all business dates in the specified period by 1:00 PM ET on July 1, 2026, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on July 4, 2026. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the data available.\n\nIf NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published for the period prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as any applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing.\n\nIf the company completes an IPO or direct listing before the end of the specified period, this market will consider, in addition to the relevant NPM valuations published between market creation and the IPO or direct listing date, the valuation implied by the official IPO or direct listing price, and the company’s public market capitalization between the IPO or direct listing date and the end of the specified period. \n\nPublic market capitalization will be determined using the highest\u002Flowest official regular-hours trading price published for the company’s primary listed common equity on its primary exchange for any trading day during the specified period, multiplied by the company’s total outstanding common shares at the relevant time.\n\nIf the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.\n\nIf the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, only NPM valuations and applicable public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is NPM data published here: (https:\u002F\u002Ffe.secondmarket.com\u002Fcompanies\u002Fcompany-3e197763-4ff8-4d8c-bd1f-cc2792937757\u002Fdata?return_url=https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket.com\u002Ffinance\u002Fprivates). The resolution source for any period following an IPO, direct listing, or relevant corporate action, will be official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.\n\nRevisions to previously published NPM data made after their initial release will not be considered, unless made to correct clearly erroneous data.","Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by June 30? is a finance prediction market tracking whether the AI company Anthropic’s private-market valuation will reach or exceed a specified level before the deadline. The event focuses on valuation data reported by Nasdaq Private Market (NPM) and, if applicable, any later public-market pricing from an IPO or direct listing. In plain terms, traders are forecasting the expected outcome of whether Anthropic’s implied value crosses the listed threshold at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026.\n\nThis matters because Anthropic is one of the most closely watched private AI firms, alongside competitors in the broader LLM and Big Tech ecosystem. The market reflects sentiment around Claude, Anthropic’s growth trajectory, and investor demand for private AI assets. As of the latest update, the prediction market implies about a 29.5% probability of a Yes resolution, suggesting traders see the valuation target as possible but not the base case.\n\nThe market remains active through early July if data coverage is incomplete, with resolution based on published NPM records and, if needed, official exchange data after a listing.",148756.872307,{"id":442,"title":443,"slug":444,"category":8,"subcategory":445,"tags":446,"probability":447,"createdAt":448,"updatedAt":449,"resolutionDate":77,"description":450,"summary":451,"volume1wk":452,"featured":120},"197776","Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap (Lower Brackets)","anthropic-ipo-closing-market-cap-119","Claude 5",[445,35,33,72,38,29,37,70],0.25,"2026-05-30T10:43:14.529Z","2026-05-30T10:32:19.505Z","This market will resolve based on Anthropic's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.\n\nIf no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"No IPO by December 31, 2027\".\n\nMarket capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.\n\nIf the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nResolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.\n\nIn the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Anthropic’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.","Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap (Lower Brackets) is a finance prediction market asking traders to forecast Anthropic’s market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading. The outcome will be determined from the company’s official first-day closing share price and the number of shares outstanding, with resolution based on the primary exchange listing page or another reliable source if needed. If Anthropic does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2027 at 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to “No IPO by December 31, 2027.”\n\nThis event matters because it sits at the intersection of AI, Big Tech, and IPO markets, giving a real-time view of market sentiment around one of the most closely watched private technology companies. The current market probability is about 25%, suggesting traders see the lower market-cap brackets as a live but not dominant expected outcome. As with any event prediction, odds can shift as IPO timing, listing details, and broader finance conditions evolve over the 2026 to 2027 timeframe.",19862.584124,{"id":454,"title":455,"slug":456,"category":8,"subcategory":457,"tags":458,"probability":270,"createdAt":462,"updatedAt":463,"resolutionDate":464,"description":465,"summary":466,"volume1wk":467,"featured":120},"148013","What will S&P 500 (SPX) hit by end of June?","spx-hit-jun-2026","S&P 500",[457,459,29,51,460,461],"Indicies","S&P","SPX","2026-05-30T10:43:11.489Z","2026-05-30T10:32:17.913Z","2026-06-30T20:00:00.000Z","What will S&P 500 (SPX) hit by end of June 2026?","What will S&P 500 (SPX) hit by end of June? is a finance prediction market focused on where the U.S. stock index will finish by June 30, 2026. The event asks traders to forecast the expected outcome for the S&P 500 (SPX) over a monthly timeframe, making it a useful snapshot of market sentiment around equities, macroeconomic conditions, and broader risk appetite. The market is active from January 7, 2026 through the end-of-month deadline on June 30, 2026, when the result will be determined. As a prediction market, it reflects how participants are pricing the event rather than any guaranteed financial view. Current market probability is listed at 100%, which indicates the market is fully assigned to an outcome in the listing data, though traders should still rely on the official event rules for settlement details. With tags and keywords centered on S&P 500, SPX, indices, finance, and monthly forecast, this event is designed for users tracking market odds and event prediction around one of the most closely watched benchmark indexes.",24053.052534,{"id":469,"title":470,"slug":471,"category":8,"subcategory":472,"tags":473,"probability":58,"createdAt":477,"updatedAt":478,"resolutionDate":479,"description":480,"summary":481,"volume1wk":482,"featured":120},"16183","Kraken IPO by ___ ?","kraken-ipo-in-2025","exchange",[472,35,474,29,99,475,476,72],"Crypto","2025 Predictions","Featured","2026-05-30T10:43:13.372Z","2026-05-30T10:31:57.200Z","2027-01-01T05:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Kraken (US-based cryptocurrency exchange) completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements or credible news sources. The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by Kraken to the public on any recognized stock exchange.\n\nIf Kraken merges with another entity, is acquired, or ceases to exist before the market resolves, the market will also resolve to \"No\".\n\nThis market will resolve early if Kraken completes an IPO by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.","Kraken IPO by ___ ? is a finance prediction market asking whether Kraken, the US-based cryptocurrency exchange, will complete an initial public offering by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Traders are forecasting the expected outcome based on official company announcements and credible news reporting, with the market resolving to Yes only if Kraken lists its stock on a recognized exchange before the deadline. If Kraken is acquired, merges with another entity, or ceases to exist before resolution, the market resolves No. The event is relevant to crypto, tech, business, and IPO watchers because a public listing would be a notable milestone for one of the best-known digital asset exchanges. Market sentiment can be tracked through prediction market odds and probability, but no percentage is currently available in the data. The market is active through the end of 2025, making it a time-sensitive event prediction for traders following exchange-sector listings and broader cryptocurrency industry developments.",21560.275352,{"id":484,"title":485,"slug":486,"category":8,"subcategory":53,"tags":487,"probability":490,"createdAt":491,"updatedAt":492,"resolutionDate":197,"description":493,"summary":494,"volume1wk":495,"featured":120},"125870","What will Silver (SI) settle at in June?","si-settle-jun-2026",[53,56,488,489,29],"COMEX Silver Futures","Silver",2.55,"2026-05-30T10:43:16.538Z","2026-05-30T10:31:56.300Z","This market will resolve according to the official CME settlement price for the Active Month of Silver futures on the final trading day of June 2026.\n\nIf the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nIf the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official settlement price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no settlement price is published for that session, the market will use the most recent published settlement for the Active Month during June.\n\nFor CME Silver (SI) futures contracts, the Active Month is the nearest of CME's designated delivery-cycle months (March, May, July, September, December) that is not the spot month. The Active Month becomes a non-active month effective on its First Position Date, at which point the next eligible contract month becomes the Active Month.\n\nOnly the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.\n\nNote that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.\n\nOnly days during June on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.\n\nThis market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for the relevant trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily \"Settlement\" price for the Active Month of Silver (SI) futures.","What will Silver (SI) settle at in June? is a finance prediction market focused on the official CME settlement price for the active month of COMEX Silver futures on the final trading day of June 2026. Traders are forecasting which settlement range Silver will land in, using only the first-published CME Group settlement price for the relevant active month; intraday prices, bids, offers, and later corrections do not count. The market resolves from the CME settlement page, with shortened sessions and market holidays handled according to the rules in the listing.\n\nThis event matters because CME Silver settlement prices are a key reference point for commodities traders and market watchers following silver futures pricing. The current market probability is about 2.55%, indicating relatively low odds for the forecasted outcome at the time of this snapshot. The prediction market remains active through the June 2026 expiration window, with resolution tied to the official settlement published for the final eligible trading day in June. As a financial forecast, it reflects market sentiment around Silver (SI), COMEX Silver Futures, and the expected outcome for the month-end settlement.",18187.364255,{"id":497,"title":498,"slug":499,"category":8,"subcategory":37,"tags":500,"probability":58,"createdAt":501,"updatedAt":502,"resolutionDate":233,"description":503,"summary":504,"volume1wk":505,"featured":120},"385555","3rd largest company end of May?","3rd-largest-company-end-of-may",[37,99,29,35,15],"2026-05-30T10:42:51.029Z","2026-05-30T10:31:55.275Z","This market will resolve to the third-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31, 2026, as of market close.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.","“3rd largest company end of May?” is a finance prediction market in the Big Tech category that asks which company will be the third-largest in the world by market capitalization at the close on May 31, 2026. Traders are forecasting a ranking outcome rather than a business event, so the market focuses on market cap changes among major technology and other global companies as reported by credible sources. The forecast resolves using a consensus of credible reporting, which helps determine the expected outcome at market close. This event matters because shifts in company valuations can quickly change the standings of the world’s largest firms, making it a closely watched Big Tech and business benchmark. The market opened on April 17, 2026, and runs through the May 31 deadline. With no probability value provided here, market sentiment and odds must be inferred from trading activity rather than a published estimate. As a prediction market, it reflects trader expectations about which company will hold the third spot at the end of the month.",261737.157484,{"id":507,"title":508,"slug":509,"category":8,"subcategory":397,"tags":510,"probability":257,"createdAt":512,"updatedAt":513,"resolutionDate":378,"description":514,"summary":515,"volume1wk":516,"featured":120},"389834","Kevin Warsh cuts rates at first Fed meeting?","kevin-warsh-cuts-rates-at-first-fed-meeting",[397,511,398,14,13,12],"Warsh","2026-05-30T10:42:55.861Z","2026-05-30T10:31:53.593Z","The Fed interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.\n\nThis market will resolve to “Yes” if the Fed decreases the upper bound of the target federal funds range as a result of the first FOMC Meeting for which Kevin Warsh holds the position of Chair of the Federal Reserve. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\"\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after the first FOMC Meeting for which Kevin Warsh holds the position of Chair of the Federal Reserve. The FOMC calendar may be viewed at: https:\u002F\u002Fwww.federalreserve.gov\u002Fmonetarypolicy\u002Ffomccalendars.htm.\n\nThe level and change of the target federal funds range is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https:\u002F\u002Fwww.federalreserve.gov\u002Fmonetarypolicy\u002Fopenmarket.htm.\n\nIf Kevin Warsh’s nomination for Chair of the Federal Reserve is formally withdrawn, or otherwise finally rejected, or if no qualifying meeting occurs by December 31, 2026 (ET),  this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThis market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for the meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to \"No\".","Kevin Warsh cuts rates at first Fed meeting? is a finance prediction market on whether the Federal Reserve will lower the upper bound of the federal funds target range at the first FOMC meeting after Kevin Warsh becomes Chair of the Federal Reserve. The forecast focuses on the FOMC statement and the official Fed rate decision, making the event dependent on both Warsh’s confirmation and the timing of the first qualifying meeting. If no such meeting occurs by December 31, 2026, or if his nomination is withdrawn or rejected, the market resolves to No. Current market probability is about 1.6%, indicating traders see a very low chance of an immediate rate cut. In prediction market terms, sentiment is strongly leaning toward no change at Warsh’s first meeting, with limited odds priced in for an early easing move. The event sits at the intersection of Trump-era political appointments, Fed Chair succession, and U.S. monetary policy, so it is closely watched by traders tracking event prediction and interest-rate expectations.",115415.733382,{"id":518,"title":519,"slug":520,"category":8,"subcategory":521,"tags":522,"probability":523,"createdAt":524,"updatedAt":525,"resolutionDate":90,"description":526,"summary":527,"volume1wk":528,"featured":120},"192787","What will Gold (GC) hit__ by end of December?","what-will-gold-gc-hit-by-end-of-december","COMEX Gold Features",[521,29,53,56,193],5.5,"2026-05-30T10:43:13.715Z","2026-05-30T10:31:48.253Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if, on any trading day, the official CME settlement price for the Active Month (front month) of Gold (GC) futures is equal to or above the listed price by the final trading day of December 2026. Otherwise, the market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor CME Gold (GC) futures contracts, the Active Month is the nearest of CME's designated delivery-cycle months (February, April, June, August, October, December) that is not the spot month. The Active Month changes automatically on the contract's First Position Date, at which point the next eligible contract month becomes the Active Month.\n\nOnly the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.\n\nNote that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.\n\nOnly days on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.\n\nThis market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for that trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily \"Settlement\" price for the Active Month of Gold (GC) futures.","What will Gold (GC) hit by end of December? is a finance prediction market on whether CME Gold futures will reach or exceed a listed price at any point before the final trading day of December 2026. The event resolves using the official CME settlement price for the Active Month (front month) Gold (GC) futures contract, not intraday highs, lows, or last traded prices. Traders are forecasting the expected outcome based on CME’s published daily settlement data, which is the only source used for resolution.\n\nThis market matters because Gold futures are a closely watched commodity benchmark and a key indicator of precious metals sentiment. The Active Month changes according to CME’s delivery cycle, and only trading days with published settlement prices count toward resolution. The market opens on 2026-01-29 and ends on 2026-12-31.\n\nCurrent market probability is about 5.5%, suggesting traders see a relatively low chance that Gold will hit the specified level by year-end. As a prediction market, this listing reflects market odds and forecast sentiment rather than a guaranteed price target.",20983.947115000003,{"id":530,"title":531,"slug":532,"category":8,"subcategory":99,"tags":533,"probability":378,"createdAt":535,"updatedAt":536,"resolutionDate":90,"description":537,"summary":538,"volume1wk":539,"featured":120},"196914","Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?","largest-ipo-by-market-cap-in-2026-287",[99,35,37,73,70,534,294,69,38,72,71,29,292,306,100],"Science","2026-05-30T10:42:58.862Z","2026-05-30T10:31:40.423Z","This market will resolve to the company that achieves the highest market capitalization in U.S. dollars based on the official closing price on its first trading day in 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve to a company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.\n\nMarket capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.\n\nIf two or more companies have exactly equal highest closing market capitalizations, this market will resolve to the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically.\n\nResolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.\n\nIn case the respective company's primary exchange’s official listing page does not report in U.S. dollars, it will be converted to U.S. dollars using the U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s H.10 foreign exchange reference rate for the relevant currency pair on the company’s first trading day (https:\u002F\u002Fwww.federalreserve.gov\u002Freleases\u002Fh10\u002F). If no such rate is available for the relevant trading day, the most recent previously published rate will be used. If the relevant currency is not listed, another credible exchange rate source will be used.\n\nA listed company may resolve to \"No\" as soon as it becomes unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.\n\nIn the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on the respective companies’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.","Largest IPO by market cap in 2026? is a finance prediction market asking which company will debut on a U.S. exchange in 2026 with the highest market capitalization on its first trading day. The forecast is based on the official closing share price multiplied by outstanding shares, with resolution tied to the primary exchange listing page and U.S. dollar conversion rules when needed. The market runs through December 31, 2026, so traders are effectively weighing which IPO candidate is most likely to enter public markets at the largest valuation. This matters because large IPOs often reflect investor appetite for major tech, AI, space, and business names, and the outcome could be shaped by companies linked in market discussion such as OpenAI, SpaceX, Sam Altman, Elon Musk, and broader Big Tech themes. As of now, no single probability is provided, but prediction market sentiment can still be inferred from volume, liquidity, and open interest. If two companies finish with the same market cap, the listing resolves alphabetically.",76542.04622700001,{"id":541,"title":542,"slug":543,"category":8,"subcategory":13,"tags":544,"probability":546,"createdAt":547,"updatedAt":548,"resolutionDate":549,"description":550,"summary":551,"volume1wk":552,"featured":120},"101936","Fed rate hike in 2026?","fed-rate-hike-in-2026",[13,9,11,15,12,545],"Macro Single",31.5,"2026-05-30T10:42:57.847Z","2026-05-30T10:31:39.320Z","2026-12-09T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThis market may not resolve to \"No\" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https:\u002F\u002Fwww.federalreserve.gov\u002Fmonetarypolicy\u002Fopenmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.","Fed rate hike in 2026? is a finance prediction market asking whether the Federal Reserve will increase the upper bound of the target federal funds rate at any point in 2026. The market is focused on Fed monetary policy and Jerome Powell’s central bank decisions, with resolution tied to official Federal Reserve announcements and, if needed, credible reporting. It will resolve “Yes” if the Fed raises rates between January 1, 2026 and the December 8-9, 2026 meeting; otherwise it resolves “No” after the post-meeting decision is released. As of the latest data, traders are pricing in a 31.5% probability of a rate hike, suggesting market sentiment leans toward no change but leaves meaningful odds for an increase. The event matters because Fed rate decisions influence inflation expectations, borrowing costs, and broader macro conditions. For prediction market participants, this is a straightforward event prediction on the direction of U.S. interest rates before year-end 2026.",87431.91223,{"id":554,"title":555,"slug":556,"category":8,"subcategory":488,"tags":557,"probability":558,"createdAt":559,"updatedAt":560,"resolutionDate":197,"description":561,"summary":562,"volume1wk":563,"featured":120},"125871","Will Silver (SI) hit__ by end of June?","si-hit-jun-2026",[488,56,53,489,29],1.05,"2026-05-30T10:42:49.929Z","2026-05-30T10:31:37.523Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if, on any trading day, the official CME settlement price for the Active Month (front month) of Silver (SI) futures is equal to or above the listed price by the final trading day of June 2026. Otherwise, the market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor CME Silver (SI) futures contracts, the Active Month is the nearest of CME's designated delivery-cycle months (March, May, July, September, December) that is not the spot month. The Active Month becomes a non-active month effective on its First Position Date, at which point the next eligible contract month becomes the Active Month.\n\nOnly the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.\n\nNote that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.\n\nOnly days on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.\n\nThis market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for that trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily \"Settlement\" price for the Active Month of Silver (SI) futures.","Will Silver (SI) hit__ by end of June? is a finance prediction market focused on whether the CME settlement price for the Active Month of Silver futures will reach or exceed a specified level on any trading day before the final trading day of June 2026. The market resolves based only on the official CME Group daily settlement price for the front-month SI contract, not intraday highs, lows, or last traded prices. That makes the event a precise forecast tied to COMEX Silver Futures pricing methodology rather than broader spot-silver moves. The start date is December 26, 2025, and the outcome deadline is June 30, 2026, when the market is expected to resolve according to the final published settlement data. Traders in this prediction market are effectively pricing the odds that silver can reach the target level during the June 2026 window. Current market probability is around 1.05%, suggesting very low market sentiment for a Yes outcome, though probabilities can change as commodity conditions shift. This event is relevant to participants following commodities, silver, and CME futures because the expected outcome depends on the official settlement process used for Silver (SI) contracts.",359675.783851,{"id":565,"title":566,"slug":567,"category":8,"subcategory":37,"tags":568,"probability":570,"createdAt":571,"updatedAt":572,"resolutionDate":573,"description":574,"summary":575,"volume1wk":576,"featured":120},"48292","OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap","openai-ipo-closing-market-cap",[37,292,70,35,72,29,100,569],"rewards 100, 4.5, 100",1.65,"2026-05-30T10:43:11.443Z","2026-05-30T10:31:35.121Z","2026-12-31T23:55:00.000Z","This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.\n\nIf no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"No IPO by December 31, 2026\".\n\nMarket capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.\n\nIf the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nResolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.\n\nIn the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.","OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap is a finance prediction market asking traders to forecast OpenAI’s market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading. The event centers on whether OpenAI completes an IPO before the deadline, and if no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to “No IPO by December 31, 2026.” If an IPO does happen, resolution is based on the company’s official closing price on the first trading day and the corresponding market cap, with bracketed ranges resolved to the higher bracket when the value falls exactly between two ranges. This event matters because OpenAI is one of the most closely watched Big Tech and AI companies, so the outcome is a key signal for market sentiment around the company’s valuation and public listing prospects. Current market probability is about 1.65%, suggesting traders assign relatively low odds to a near-term outcome. The forecast is active from September 23, 2025 through December 31, 2026, making it a long-dated event prediction tied to OpenAI, IPOs, and broader tech-finance expectations.",24087.862524,{"id":578,"title":579,"slug":580,"category":8,"subcategory":35,"tags":581,"probability":582,"createdAt":583,"updatedAt":584,"resolutionDate":77,"description":151,"summary":585,"volume1wk":586,"featured":120},"183726","SpaceX IPO Closing Market Cap (Lower Strikes)","spacex-ipo-closing-market-cap-higher-strikes",[35,70,29,69,37,534,72,306,71,73],4.6,"2026-05-30T10:42:57.150Z","2026-05-30T10:31:32.974Z","SpaceX IPO Closing Market Cap (Lower Strikes) is a finance prediction market on the company’s valuation when SpaceX first begins trading publicly. The forecast resolves using SpaceX’s market capitalization at the official closing price on its first day of trading, based on the primary exchange listing page or another reliable source if needed. If no SpaceX IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, the market resolves to “No IPO before 2028.”\n\nThis event matters because an IPO would be a major milestone for SpaceX, the private aerospace and space company closely associated with Elon Musk and the broader Big Tech and space sectors. Traders are effectively pricing the expected outcome of SpaceX’s debut market cap into bracketed ranges, with the lower-strike structure determining which valuation band is selected. If the final value lands exactly between two brackets, the higher range wins.\n\nCurrent market probability is about 4.6%, suggesting traders see a relatively low chance of this outcome at present. The prediction market opened on January 23, 2026 and runs through the December 31, 2027 deadline, making timing a key factor in the forecast and overall market sentiment.",95110.33739599999,{"id":588,"title":589,"slug":590,"category":8,"subcategory":591,"tags":592,"probability":593,"createdAt":594,"updatedAt":595,"resolutionDate":129,"description":596,"summary":597,"volume1wk":598,"featured":120},"35747","Next James Bond actor?","next-james-bond-actor-635","Movies",[591,340],3.3,"2026-05-30T10:43:01.494Z","2026-05-30T10:31:17.749Z","This is a market on who will be the next actor to play James Bond in the upcoming film series.","\"Next James Bond actor?\" is a prediction market asking which actor will be chosen to play James Bond in the upcoming film series. The event focuses on the casting outcome for the long-running spy franchise, making it relevant to movie and culture watchers as well as traders following entertainment forecasts. Market participants are effectively pricing the probability that a specific actor will become the next official Bond, rather than predicting the film’s box office or release schedule. As of the latest update, the market assigns a probability of 3.3% to the current leading outcome, though that figure can change as market sentiment shifts and new information enters the forecast. The market opened on 2025-08-04 and is set to run until 2026-06-30, giving traders a defined window to adjust odds based on casting rumors, studio announcements, and other developments. With solid liquidity and active trading volume, this event prediction has drawn sustained attention within the prediction market category despite the inherently uncertain nature of James Bond casting.",57647.550426,{"id":600,"title":123,"slug":601,"category":8,"subcategory":37,"tags":602,"probability":603,"createdAt":604,"updatedAt":605,"resolutionDate":77,"description":450,"summary":606,"volume1wk":607,"featured":120},"428957","anthropic-ipo-closing-market-cap-979",[37,33,70,72,38,29,35,36,374],1.3,"2026-05-30T10:43:26.697Z","2026-05-30T10:31:13.186Z","Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap is a finance prediction market asking traders to forecast Anthropic’s market capitalization at the closing price on the company’s first day of trading. The event focuses on the expected valuation of the AI and Big Tech company behind Claude, and it will resolve using the official primary exchange listing page or another reliable source if needed. If Anthropic does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No IPO by December 31, 2027.”\n\nThis event matters because Anthropic is one of the most closely watched names in artificial intelligence, and its IPO valuation would signal market sentiment around AI companies, public-market demand, and broader tech sector expectations. The forecast is structured around bracketed market-cap ranges, with the higher range used if the final value falls exactly between two brackets.\n\nAs of the latest data, the market probability is 1.3%, suggesting traders currently see a low chance of the listed outcome relative to the available brackets. The market begins on April 30, 2026 and runs until the end-of-year deadline in 2027.",9944.572863000001,{"id":609,"title":610,"slug":611,"category":8,"subcategory":11,"tags":612,"probability":614,"createdAt":615,"updatedAt":616,"resolutionDate":90,"description":617,"summary":618,"volume1wk":619,"featured":120},"84803","What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?","what-will-fed-rate-hit-before-2027",[11,613,15,14,9,13,12],"Macro Indicators",3.25,"2026-05-30T10:43:10.909Z","2026-05-30T10:31:02.002Z","The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.\n\nThis market will resolve to “Yes” if the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds rate reaches the specified level at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”\n\nEmergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at:\nhttps:\u002F\u002Fwww.federalreserve.gov\u002Fmonetarypolicy\u002Fopenmarket.htm.\n\nThis market may resolve as soon as the relevant data showing the reached level is published.","What will Fed Rate hit before 2027? is a finance prediction market focused on the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds rate and whether its lower or upper bound reaches a specified level before the end of 2026. The market resolves “Yes” if that level is reached at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET, based on official Federal Reserve data, including any emergency rate cuts or hikes outside regular FOMC meetings. As a macro indicators event tied to Jerome Powell, Fed policy, and broader economic policy, it reflects how traders are pricing the path of U.S. interest rates amid changing inflation and growth conditions. Current market probability is about 3.25%, suggesting the expected outcome is still a relatively low-probability move at this stage. The prediction market’s odds will continue to shift with new Federal Reserve decisions, meeting outcomes, and published rate data, making it a closely watched event for anyone tracking Fed rates, market sentiment, and financial forecast expectations through late 2026.",25149.519967999997,{"id":621,"title":622,"slug":623,"category":8,"subcategory":53,"tags":624,"probability":625,"createdAt":626,"updatedAt":627,"resolutionDate":197,"description":628,"summary":629,"volume1wk":630,"featured":120},"125860","What will Gold (GC) settle at in June?","gc-settle-jun-2026",[53,56,191,29,193],2.1,"2026-05-30T10:43:12.175Z","2026-05-30T10:30:45.559Z","This market will resolve according to the official CME settlement price for the Active Month of Gold futures on the final trading day of June 2026.\n\nIf the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nIf the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official settlement price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no settlement price is published for that session, the market will use the most recent published settlement for the Active Month during June.\n\nFor CME Gold (GC) futures contracts, the Active Month is the nearest of CME's designated delivery-cycle months (February, April, June, August, October, December) that is not the spot month. The Active Month changes automatically on the contract's First Position Date, at which point the next eligible contract month becomes the Active Month.\n\nOnly the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.\n\nNote that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.\n\nOnly days during June on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.\n\nThis market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for the relevant trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily \"Settlement\" price for the Active Month of Gold (GC) futures.","What will Gold (GC) settle at in June? is a finance prediction market tied to the official CME Group settlement price for the active month of COMEX Gold futures on the final trading day of June 2026. Traders are forecasting the CME-published daily settlement for Gold (GC), using only the active month’s official settlement price rather than intraday highs, lows, bids, offers, or last trade. That makes this an event prediction based on the exchange’s published methodology, not on spot gold quotes or estimates.\n\nThe market resolves from the CME settlement page, and if June 2026 ends on a shortened session, the official settlement for that session still counts. If no settlement is published that day, the most recent published June settlement is used. The contract’s active month can shift based on CME’s delivery cycle, which is relevant for how the forecast is interpreted.\n\nCurrent market probability is 2.1%, suggesting traders see this outcome as relatively unlikely at the time of the latest update. The event runs through June 30, 2026, when the final resolution price is expected to be known.",22921.199126,{"id":632,"title":633,"slug":634,"category":8,"subcategory":635,"tags":636,"probability":645,"createdAt":646,"updatedAt":647,"resolutionDate":90,"description":648,"summary":649,"volume1wk":650,"featured":120},"199727","Will USD\u002FKRW hit __ in 2026?","will-usdkrw-hit-in-2026","Won",[635,637,638,639,640,641,29,642,643,644],"South Korea","dollar","USD\u002FKRW","F X","forex","Exchange Rate","Foreign Exchange","FX",3.35,"2026-05-30T10:43:01.314Z","2026-05-30T10:30:19.531Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Investing.com high price (“H”) for any USD\u002FKRW hourly candle for an hour on or before the listed end date (ET) is equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nData for a given candle will be considered finalized once the next candle appears on the specified graph. The last trading day of a given week will be considered finalized once the market closes on that day, typically at 5 PM ET on Friday.\n\nThis market will resolve as soon as any finalized USD\u002FKRW hourly candle high price is equal to or above the listed price, or once the final hourly candle in the specified period is finalized. A candle starting at 11:00 PM ET on a given date will be considered to be on that date.\n\nThis market’s resolution will be based solely on information from the “H” figure located at the top of the USD\u002FKRW Streaming Chart on Investing.com for the specified currency pair (https:\u002F\u002Fwww.investing.com\u002Fcurrencies\u002Fusd-krw-chart).","Will USD\u002FKRW hit __ in 2026? is a finance prediction market on the South Korean won exchange rate, asking whether the USD\u002FKRW pair will reach or exceed a specified price before the end date on 2026-12-31. The market resolves to “Yes” if the Investing.com high price (“H”) for any finalized USD\u002FKRW hourly candle is equal to or above the listed threshold; otherwise it resolves to “No.” In practical terms, traders are forecasting the odds that the U.S. dollar strengthens enough against the won to touch that level during the year. This event is relevant to forex and foreign exchange watchers because USD\u002FKRW reflects broader market sentiment around the dollar, South Korea’s currency, and macroeconomic conditions affecting exchange rates. The market opened on 2026-02-06, and resolution depends solely on the Investing.com USD\u002FKRW streaming chart data for the specified period. Current market probability is about 3.35%, suggesting traders assign a low expected outcome for a move to the target price within 2026.",58680.626922,1780676592713]