[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":98},["ShallowReactive",2],{"category-events-events":3,"category-content-events":97},[4,22,42,53,66,81],{"id":5,"title":6,"slug":7,"category":8,"subcategory":9,"tags":10,"probability":14,"createdAt":15,"updatedAt":16,"resolutionDate":17,"description":18,"summary":19,"volume1wk":20,"featured":21},"125877","Will Crude Oil (CL) hit__ by end of June?","cl-hit-jun-2026","OTHER","Commodities",[9,11,12,13],"Hide From New","NYMEX Crude Oil Futures","Oil",100,"2026-05-30T10:42:45.262Z","2026-06-16T10:04:52.325Z","2026-06-30T18:30:00.000Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if, on any trading day, the official CME settlement price for the Active Month (front month) of Crude Oil (CL) futures is equal to or above the listed price by the final trading day of June 2026. Otherwise, the market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.\n\nOnly the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.\n\nNote that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.\n\nOnly days on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.\n\nThis market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for that trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily \"Settlement\" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.","Will Crude Oil (CL) hit__ by end of June? is a commodities prediction market focused on whether the CME front-month Crude Oil futures contract will settle at or above a listed price on any trading day before the final trading day of June 2026. The event resolves using the official CME Group settlement price for the active month only, not intraday highs, lows, bids, offers, or last-traded prices. That makes the forecast dependent on published CME settlement data rather than day-to-day market noise. \n\nThis event matters because Crude Oil (CL) is a key benchmark for NYMEX crude oil futures and broader energy market sentiment. Traders in the prediction market are effectively pricing the odds that oil reaches the threshold by the end-of-June deadline, with current market probability shown at 100%. The market opens on December 26, 2025 and is scheduled to close on June 30, 2026 at 18:30 UTC. As a forecast on commodities, it reflects expectations for price momentum, supply-demand conditions, and volatility in the crude oil market over the first half of 2026.",3539249.6581530003,false,{"id":23,"title":24,"slug":25,"category":8,"subcategory":26,"tags":27,"probability":35,"createdAt":36,"updatedAt":37,"resolutionDate":38,"description":39,"summary":40,"volume1wk":41,"featured":21},"584288","Two SpaceX Starships dock together by…?","two-spacex-starships-dock-together-by","SpaceX",[26,28,29,30,31,32,33,34],"space exploration","starship","Big Tech","Tech","launch","Elon Musk","Space",53,"2026-06-16T10:08:23.956Z","2026-06-16T10:03:19.027Z","2028-12-31T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if two SpaceX Starships successfully execute a docking maneuver in a stable Earth orbit between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nA qualifying docking maneuver must physically join two vessels, matching in velocity, into a connected structure via mating hardware for at least 60 continuous seconds. The two vessels must be in stable Earth orbit with a perigee of at least 100 kilometers above the Earth’s surface.\n\nThe docking of any two SpaceX vessels which each serve as an integrated rocket-and-spacecraft and both equal or exceed Starship in scale will qualify regardless of their contents or variant (standard, tanker, depot, HLS, test article, etc.). The two vessels must be free-flying. Any capsule or payload carried to orbit exclusively atop a separate launch vehicle will not qualify. If either vessel is passively placed into the mating interface of the other vessel, that conjunction will not qualify.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.","Two SpaceX Starships dock together by…? is a prediction market on whether two SpaceX Starship-class vehicles will successfully perform a docking maneuver in stable Earth orbit before the market deadline of 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2028. The event resolves to Yes only if the two free-flying spacecraft physically join in orbit, match velocity, connect via mating hardware, and remain attached for at least 60 continuous seconds. Any docking attempt involving a capsule or payload launched on another vehicle does not qualify under the market rules.\n\nThis forecast matters because orbital docking is a key capability for SpaceX’s broader spaceflight plans, including potential tanker, depot, and lunar mission operations. Market sentiment currently places the event probability at 53%, suggesting traders see roughly even odds that SpaceX will achieve the milestone within the listed timeframe. The resolution source is a consensus of credible reporting, making this a classic event prediction tied to real-world SpaceX and Starship development progress.",18179.402094,{"id":43,"title":44,"slug":45,"category":8,"subcategory":9,"tags":46,"probability":47,"createdAt":48,"updatedAt":49,"resolutionDate":17,"description":50,"summary":51,"volume1wk":52,"featured":21},"125876","What will Crude Oil (CL) settle at in June?","cl-settle-jun-2026",[9,12,11,13],0.3,"2026-06-16T10:08:23.191Z","2026-06-16T10:02:27.835Z","This market will resolve according to the official CME settlement price for the Active Month of Crude Oil futures on the final trading day of June 2026.\n\nIf the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nIf the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official settlement price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no settlement price is published for that session, the market will use the most recent published settlement for the Active Month during June.\n\nFor CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.\n\nOnly the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.\n\nNote that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.\n\nOnly days during June on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.\n\nThis market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for the relevant trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily \"Settlement\" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.","What will Crude Oil (CL) settle at in June? is a prediction market focused on the official CME settlement price for the active month of NYMEX Crude Oil futures on the final trading day of June 2026. Traders are forecasting where CME Group will publish the daily settlement for CL, with resolution based only on the first published official settlement price for the active month and not on intraday trades, highs, lows, or last traded prices. If the value falls exactly between two brackets, the market resolves to the higher bracket. The event runs through June 30, 2026, when the final relevant settlement is expected to be determined, though shortened sessions and exchange holidays may affect which published CME settlement is used. Current market probability is around 30%, suggesting moderate market sentiment for this outcome. This event matters because crude oil futures are a key commodities benchmark, and the forecast reflects trader expectations for energy pricing as June 2026 approaches. The market uses CME settlement data only, making the event prediction tied to an exchange-defined reference price rather than broader spot oil moves.",19153.707394,{"id":54,"title":55,"slug":56,"category":8,"subcategory":57,"tags":58,"probability":59,"createdAt":60,"updatedAt":61,"resolutionDate":62,"description":63,"summary":64,"volume1wk":65,"featured":21},"169319","Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair?","will-elon-musk-buy-ryanair","Business",[57,31,33],0.6,"2026-05-30T10:43:01.856Z","2026-06-16T10:01:54.624Z","2026-06-30T00:00:00.000Z","On January 16, Elon Musk posted that buying Ryanair might be a \"good idea.\" You can read more about that here: https:\u002F\u002Fx.com\u002Felonmusk\u002Fstatus\u002F2012172825444913299\n\nThis market will resolve to “Yes” if credible reporting confirms that Elon Musk, either personally or through an entity led or majority owned by him, enters into an agreement to buy Ryanair by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn announced agreement between Elon Musk and Ryanair will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the acquisition is ultimately completed.\n\nAn agreement to merge with a qualifying entity will count toward \"Yes\" resolution.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market is official information from Elon Musk and Ryanair, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.","Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? is a prediction market asking whether Elon Musk, personally or through an entity he controls, will enter into an agreement to acquire Ryanair by June 30, 2026. The event stems from Musk’s January 16 post on X suggesting that buying Ryanair might be a “good idea,” which helped drive market attention and trader speculation around the airline and the tech billionaire. In this forecast market, a “Yes” resolution requires credible reporting or official confirmation of an announced purchase agreement or qualifying merger, even if the deal is not ultimately completed. The market is relevant to business and tech watchers because it sits at the intersection of corporate M&A, celebrity-led market sentiment, and speculation about unusual acquisition scenarios. As of the latest available data, traders are pricing the event at about 40% probability, indicating meaningful but far from certain odds of an agreement before the deadline. The current market sentiment suggests a notable possibility of a deal announcement, while still reflecting substantial uncertainty over whether Elon Musk or a Musk-led entity will move forward.",74519.411138,{"id":67,"title":68,"slug":69,"category":8,"subcategory":70,"tags":71,"probability":74,"createdAt":75,"updatedAt":76,"resolutionDate":77,"description":78,"summary":79,"volume1wk":80,"featured":21},"32226","Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by...?","jeffrey-epstein-foul-play-confirmed-in-2025","Trump",[70,72,73],"Trump Presidency","Epstein",0,"2026-05-30T10:42:57.450Z","2026-06-16T10:00:32.009Z","2026-12-31T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if definitive evidence confirming the the incident on August 10, 2019, involving Jeffrey Epstein involved foul play is released by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nStatements from the U.S. government indicating that there was foul play will qualify for a \"Yes\" resolution.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from any US government agency, law enforcement agencies, and courts, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.","Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by...? is a prediction market centered on whether definitive evidence will be released confirming that the August 10, 2019 incident involving Jeffrey Epstein involved foul play. The market resolves to Yes only if by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, official information from a U.S. government agency, law enforcement, or courts — or a strong consensus of credible reporting — establishes that conclusion. Otherwise, it resolves to No. The event sits within the OTHER category and the Trump subcategory, with tags including Trump, Trump Presidency, and Epstein, reflecting its political and legal relevance. As a forecast market, it tracks trader sentiment on whether new evidence, statements, or investigations will shift the expected outcome before the deadline. Current market probability is 0%, suggesting no active pricing for a confirmed foul-play finding at the moment. For prediction market participants, this is an event prediction tied to official disclosure standards and an extended resolution window ending in late 2025.",90168.52233300004,{"id":82,"title":83,"slug":84,"category":8,"subcategory":85,"tags":86,"probability":47,"createdAt":91,"updatedAt":92,"resolutionDate":93,"description":94,"summary":95,"volume1wk":96,"featured":21},"511799","Was the Fox News guest wearing a mask?","was-the-fox-news-guest-wearing-a-mask","fox",[85,87,88,89,90],"Robert","news","Harward","conspiracy","2026-05-30T10:43:02.628Z","2026-05-30T10:30:02.637Z","2026-05-31T00:00:00.000Z","Retired Vice Admiral Robert Harward made an appearance on Fox News which fueled online conspiracy that he was wearing a full-face mask. (See: https:\u002F\u002Fx.com\u002FMrSausageGet\u002Fstatus\u002F2057470198169346552)\n\nThis market will resolve to \"Yes\" if it is confirmed that that Robert Harward, or a man impersonating Robert Harward, wore a mask during his appearance on Fox News on May 19, 2026 by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nConfirmation from Robert Harward, Fox News, or an official representative of either party will qualify, and may come through public statements, official network communications, social media posts, or press releases. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting that the guest was wearing a mask will also suffice for a \"Yes\" resolution.\n\nA statement of denial will not be sufficient to resolve this market to \"No\". This market may not resolve to \"No\" until the timeframe has ended without a qualifying announcement. \n\nThis market will resolve according to statements from Robert Harward, Fox Corporation, or their legal or social media representatives; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.","Was the Fox News guest wearing a mask? is a prediction market tied to a Fox News appearance by retired Vice Admiral Robert Harward and the online speculation that he may have been wearing a full-face mask. The market asks traders to forecast a simple outcome: whether it is confirmed that Harward, or someone impersonating him, wore a mask during the May 19, 2026 appearance. It will resolve to Yes only if confirmation comes from Robert Harward, Fox News, an official representative, or an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting by the May 31, 2026 deadline. \n\nThis event has drawn attention because it sits at the intersection of media verification, viral conspiracy claims, and event prediction. Current market probability is about 30%, suggesting traders see a minority chance of a Yes resolution, though sentiment can still shift if credible statements or reporting emerge before the cutoff. As with other prediction market contracts, the odds reflect evolving market sentiment rather than certainty.",52273.22313199999,null,1781606316136]