[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":76},["ShallowReactive",2],{"event-page-will-ukraine-recapture-crimean-territory-by-june-30-2026":3},{"event":4,"related":43},{"id":5,"slug":6,"title":7,"description":8,"summary":9,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":12,"image":18,"probability":19,"volume24hr":20,"volume1wk":21,"liquidity":22,"openInterest":23,"trendScore":24,"active":25,"closed":26,"featured":26,"startDate":27,"endDate":28,"createdAtRemote":29,"updatedAtRemote":30,"affiliateUrl":31,"polymarketUrl":31,"searchKeywords":32,"syncedAt":40,"createdAt":41,"marketCount":42},"48978","will-ukraine-recapture-crimean-territory-by-june-30-2026","Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by...?","This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Ukraine captures any territory in Crimea by June 30, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET.\n\nTerritory will will be considered captured if any part of Crimea shaded blue on the ISW map (https:\u002F\u002Fstorymaps.arcgis.com\u002Fstories\u002F36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe border around Crimea shaded in black on the ISW map will not qualify. \n\nOnce Ukraine captures territory in Crimea, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.\n\nIf Ukraine comes into control of territory in Crimea as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded blue in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https:\u002F\u002Fdeepstatemap.live\u002F) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.\n\nNote: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.\n","Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by...? is a geopolitics prediction market that asks whether Ukraine will capture any territory in Crimea by June 30, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. The event resolves to Yes if the ISW Ukraine map shows any part of Crimea shaded blue by the deadline, or if Ukraine gains actual control of Crimean territory through a negotiated settlement. A black border on the map does not count, and temporary mapping glitches are excluded from resolution.\n\nThis forecast matters because Crimea remains a central issue in the Russia-Ukraine war and a major test of battlefield control, diplomacy, and territorial change. Traders are pricing the market at about 55% probability, suggesting a slightly favorable but still uncertain expected outcome for a Ukrainian recapture before the cutoff. Market sentiment reflects ongoing uncertainty around military developments, territorial control, and any potential settlement terms.\n\nThe prediction market uses the ISW map as the primary resolution source, with DeepStateMap or credible reporting as backups if needed. As of the current timeframe, the June 30, 2026 deadline is the key date to watch for event prediction and resolution.","GEOPOLITICS","Ukraine",[11,13,14,15,16,17],"Russia","Geopolitics","Politics","World","Ukraine Map","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com\u002Fwill-ukraine-recapture-crimean-territory-by-june-30-2026--xNOyR0lcMvz.jpg",0.55,19883.926465000004,289861.946301,228700.47683,259165.180446,142640.6424888,true,false,"2025-09-23T23:24:48.795Z","2026-12-31T00:00:00.000Z","2025-09-23T22:45:29.297Z","2026-06-16T10:02:14.415Z","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket.com\u002Fevent\u002Fwill-ukraine-recapture-crimean-territory-by-june-30-2026?r=predstack",[33,34,35,36,37,38,39],"will ukraine recapture crimean territory by...?","will ukraine recapture crimean territory by...? prediction","will ukraine recapture crimean territory by...? odds","will ukraine recapture crimean territory by...? probability","geopolitics prediction market","geopolitical forecast","geopolitical probability","2026-06-16T10:11:19.222Z","2026-06-16T10:07:58.306Z",0,[44,55,67],{"id":45,"title":46,"slug":47,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":48,"probability":42,"createdAt":50,"updatedAt":51,"resolutionDate":52,"description":53,"summary":53,"volume1wk":54,"featured":26},"25036","Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by...?","will-russia-capture-kostyantynivka-by",[11,15,16,14,49,17],"Russia Capture","2026-05-30T10:42:50.012Z","2026-06-16T10:02:41.947Z","2025-12-31T12:00:00.000Z","This is a market on the likelihood of Russia capturing Kostyantynivka by a specific date.",496351.26546699996,{"id":56,"title":57,"slug":58,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":59,"probability":42,"createdAt":62,"updatedAt":63,"resolutionDate":64,"description":65,"summary":65,"volume1wk":66,"featured":26},"131611","Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by...?","will-russia-capture-all-of-stepnohirsk-by",[11,17,13,60,15,61,49,14],"putin","Military Actions","2026-05-30T10:42:52.686Z","2026-06-16T10:01:38.867Z","2026-05-31T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the entirety of Stepnohirsk, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, by January 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.\n\nStepnohirsk will be considered captured if the entirety of the municipality is shaded red on the ISW map (https:\u002F\u002Fstorymaps.arcgis.com\u002Fstories\u002F36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by January 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”.\n\nFor any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.\n\nThe territory of the municipality is shaded in light grey and is distinguished from bordering municipalities such as \"Prymorske\" with a darker grey line. If all area within the municipality is shaded in red, however, the shading does not precisely match up with the border such that there is a tiny amount of grey along the border of the city, this will still qualify for a \"Yes\" resolution.\n\nOnce Russia captures the entirety of Stepnohirsk, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.\n\nLocation on Google maps: https:\u002F\u002Fmaps.app.goo.gl\u002FCwF1b64Qo49PvUZw5\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https:\u002F\u002Fdeepstatemap.live\u002F) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.\n\nNote: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.\n\nIf Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.",213770.77582,{"id":68,"title":69,"slug":70,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":71,"probability":42,"createdAt":72,"updatedAt":73,"resolutionDate":64,"description":74,"summary":74,"volume1wk":75,"featured":26},"73058","Will Russia capture all of Vovchansk by...?","will-russia-capture-all-of-vovchansk-by",[11,14,17,15,60,13,61,49],"2026-05-30T10:42:54.917Z","2026-06-16T10:02:12.919Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the entirety of Vovchansk by November 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.\n\nVovchansk will be considered captured if the entirety of the municipality is shaded red on the ISW map (https:\u002F\u002Fstorymaps.arcgis.com\u002Fstories\u002F36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by November 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”.\n\nIf the territory of municipality is shaded light grey, and is distinguished from bordering municipalities such as \"Vovchanski Khutory\" with a darker grey line. If all area within the municipality is shaded in red, however, the shading does not precisely match up with the border such that there is a tiny amount of grey along the border of the city, this will still qualify for a \"Yes\" resolution.\n\nOnce Russia captures Vovchansk, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.\n\nVovchansk Location: https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com\u002FVovchansk.png \nLocation on Google Maps: https:\u002F\u002Fmaps.app.goo.gl\u002FpEumzu6kdCPQ2sYt7\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https:\u002F\u002Fdeepstatemap.live\u002F) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap is rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.\n\nNote: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.\n\nIf Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.\n",127929.20207599997,1781606274841]