[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":79},["ShallowReactive",2],{"event-page-will-ukraine-agree-to-give-up-the-rest-of-donbas-before-2027":3},{"event":4,"related":43},{"id":5,"slug":6,"title":7,"description":8,"summary":9,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":12,"image":18,"probability":19,"volume24hr":20,"volume1wk":21,"liquidity":22,"openInterest":23,"trendScore":24,"active":25,"closed":26,"featured":26,"startDate":27,"endDate":28,"createdAtRemote":29,"updatedAtRemote":30,"affiliateUrl":31,"polymarketUrl":31,"searchKeywords":32,"syncedAt":40,"createdAt":41,"marketCount":42},"73146","will-ukraine-agree-to-give-up-the-rest-of-donbas-before-2027","Will Ukraine agree to give up the rest of Donbas before 2027?","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if a deal in which Ukraine agrees to cede de facto control of all major cities under their control in the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts is reached between the Russian Federation and Ukraine by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, major cities under Ukrainian control include the following: Kramatorsk, Sloviansk, Kostiantynivka, Druzhkivka, and Pokrovsk. \n\nThe deal must be a publicly announced mutual agreement or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting.\n\nIf such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to \"Yes\", regardless of if\u002Fwhen the agreement goes into effect.\n\nAny agreement which cedes de facto military control of the listed cities will qualify regardless of if Ukraine formally maintains its claim to sovereignty. For example, the 1999 Kumanovo Military Technical Agreement, in which Yugoslavia agreed to pull military forces out of Kosovo but did not recognize Kosovo’s autonomy or independence would qualify for a 'Yes' resolution.  \n\nA Ukrainian agreement to cede de facto military control, will qualify regardless of the group\u002Fentity which replaces them.\n\nOnly territory ceded as part of a diplomatic process or agreement will qualify. If Russia captures these cities through military action it will not qualify for a “Yes” resolution.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by Ukraine and\u002For the Russian Federation, however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.","Will Ukraine agree to give up the rest of Donbas before 2027? is a geopolitics prediction market about whether Ukraine and Russia will reach a publicly announced deal that gives Russia de facto control of the remaining major Ukrainian-held cities in Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts. The market focuses on Kramatorsk, Sloviansk, Kostiantynivka, Druzhkivka, and Pokrovsk, and it resolves \"Yes\" only if such an agreement is confirmed by official announcement or overwhelming credible reporting by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. If Russia captures the cities through military action alone, that does not qualify. This makes the forecast especially relevant to traders tracking the Ukraine peace deal outlook, territorial negotiations, and broader market sentiment around the war. Current market probability is about 9.5%, suggesting traders see a relatively low expected outcome for a diplomatic cession of the rest of Donbas before the deadline. As a Ukraine subcategory event, it is closely watched for signals about negotiation risk, conflict resolution, and geopolitical odds heading into 2027.","GEOPOLITICS","Ukraine",[11,13,14,15,16,17],"Geopolitics","donestk","World","Politics","Ukraine Peace Deal","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com\u002Fwill-ukraine-agree-to-give-up-the-rest-of-donbas-3KYQpwoT_g_j.jpg",9.5,33967.43,34509.073622,31564.0402,12622.846634,33649.2451266,true,false,"2025-11-05T18:16:41.924Z","2026-12-31T00:00:00.000Z","2025-11-04T20:24:24.048Z","2026-05-30T10:30:48.644Z","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket.com\u002Fevent\u002Fwill-ukraine-agree-to-give-up-the-rest-of-donbas-before-2027?r=predstack",[33,34,35,36,37,38,39],"will ukraine agree to give up the rest of donbas before 2027?","will ukraine agree to give up the rest of donbas before 2027? prediction","will ukraine agree to give up the rest of donbas before 2027? odds","will ukraine agree to give up the rest of donbas before 2027? probability","geopolitics prediction market","geopolitical forecast","geopolitical probability","2026-06-05T13:25:43.466Z","2026-05-30T10:43:06.989Z",0,[44,56,67],{"id":45,"title":46,"slug":47,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":48,"probability":42,"createdAt":51,"updatedAt":52,"resolutionDate":53,"description":54,"summary":54,"volume1wk":55,"featured":26},"25036","Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by...?","will-russia-capture-kostyantynivka-by",[11,16,15,13,49,50],"Russia Capture","Ukraine Map","2026-05-30T10:42:50.012Z","2026-06-16T10:02:41.947Z","2025-12-31T12:00:00.000Z","This is a market on the likelihood of Russia capturing Kostyantynivka by a specific date.",496351.26546699996,{"id":57,"title":58,"slug":59,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":60,"probability":62,"createdAt":63,"updatedAt":64,"resolutionDate":28,"description":65,"summary":65,"volume1wk":66,"featured":26},"48978","Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by...?","will-ukraine-recapture-crimean-territory-by-june-30-2026",[11,61,13,16,15,50],"Russia",0.55,"2026-06-16T10:07:58.306Z","2026-06-16T10:02:14.415Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Ukraine captures any territory in Crimea by June 30, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET.\n\nTerritory will will be considered captured if any part of Crimea shaded blue on the ISW map (https:\u002F\u002Fstorymaps.arcgis.com\u002Fstories\u002F36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe border around Crimea shaded in black on the ISW map will not qualify. \n\nOnce Ukraine captures territory in Crimea, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.\n\nIf Ukraine comes into control of territory in Crimea as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded blue in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https:\u002F\u002Fdeepstatemap.live\u002F) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.\n\nNote: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.\n",289861.946301,{"id":68,"title":69,"slug":70,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":71,"probability":42,"createdAt":74,"updatedAt":75,"resolutionDate":76,"description":77,"summary":77,"volume1wk":78,"featured":26},"131611","Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by...?","will-russia-capture-all-of-stepnohirsk-by",[11,50,61,72,16,73,49,13],"putin","Military Actions","2026-05-30T10:42:52.686Z","2026-06-16T10:01:38.867Z","2026-05-31T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the entirety of Stepnohirsk, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, by January 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.\n\nStepnohirsk will be considered captured if the entirety of the municipality is shaded red on the ISW map (https:\u002F\u002Fstorymaps.arcgis.com\u002Fstories\u002F36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by January 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”.\n\nFor any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.\n\nThe territory of the municipality is shaded in light grey and is distinguished from bordering municipalities such as \"Prymorske\" with a darker grey line. If all area within the municipality is shaded in red, however, the shading does not precisely match up with the border such that there is a tiny amount of grey along the border of the city, this will still qualify for a \"Yes\" resolution.\n\nOnce Russia captures the entirety of Stepnohirsk, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.\n\nLocation on Google maps: https:\u002F\u002Fmaps.app.goo.gl\u002FCwF1b64Qo49PvUZw5\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https:\u002F\u002Fdeepstatemap.live\u002F) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.\n\nNote: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.\n\nIf Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.",213770.77582,1781809689922]