[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":82},["ShallowReactive",2],{"event-page-will-ukraine-agree-to-cede-territory-to-russia-before-2027":3},{"event":4,"related":45},{"id":5,"slug":6,"title":7,"description":8,"summary":9,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":12,"image":20,"probability":21,"volume24hr":22,"volume1wk":23,"liquidity":24,"openInterest":25,"trendScore":26,"active":27,"closed":28,"featured":28,"startDate":29,"endDate":30,"createdAtRemote":31,"updatedAtRemote":32,"affiliateUrl":33,"polymarketUrl":33,"searchKeywords":34,"syncedAt":42,"createdAt":43,"marketCount":44},"80824","will-ukraine-agree-to-cede-territory-to-russia-before-2027","Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if a deal in which Ukraine agrees to cede any territory under its control at the time of the agreement is reached between the Russian Federation and Ukraine by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe deal must be a publicly announced mutual agreement or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting.  \n\nIf such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to \"Yes\", regardless of if\u002Fwhen the agreement goes into effect.\n\nOnly territory ceded as part of a diplomatic process or agreement will qualify. \n\nIf a territorial adjustment is made as part of a mutual border demarcation process or technical boundary agreement that does not materially alter de facto control or reflect a broader territorial concession, it will not qualify for a 'Yes' resolution unless it is reported as a territorial concession by a consensus of credible reporting.\n\nAny agreement which cedes de facto military control of territory held by Ukraine will qualify regardless of whether Ukraine formally maintains its claim to sovereignty. For example, the 1999 Kumanovo Military Technical Agreement, in which Yugoslavia agreed to pull military forces out of Kosovo but did not recognize Kosovo’s autonomy or independence would qualify for a 'Yes' resolution.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by Ukraine and\u002For the Russian Federation, however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.","Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027? is a geopolitics prediction market about whether Kyiv will reach a publicly announced or credibly reported agreement to transfer any territory it controls to the Russian Federation by December 31, 2026. The forecast focuses on a diplomatic settlement, not a battlefield change: the market resolves \"Yes\" only if Ukraine agrees to territorial concessions under the terms described in the event rules. It also covers arrangements that hand over de facto military control, even if sovereignty claims remain disputed. This makes the event relevant to ongoing discussions around the Ukraine peace deal, Zelenskyy’s role, and any broader Russia-Ukraine negotiation process. As of the latest market data, traders assign about a 15.5% probability to a Yes outcome, suggesting the expected outcome remains a No unless diplomatic conditions change materially. The market opened on November 13, 2025 and runs through the end-of-year resolution deadline on December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. For prediction market participants, the listing reflects current market sentiment on the odds of territorial concession in a future Ukraine-Russia agreement.","GEOPOLITICS","zelenskyy",[11,13,14,15,16,17,18,19],"Russia","Trump","Geopolitics","Politics","Ukraine","World","Ukraine Peace Deal","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com\u002Fwill-ukraine-agree-to-cede-territory-to-russia-Cu1RIKFPKl3v.jpg",15.5,1336.653673,15431.719718999999,42275.1649,158611.058367,13752.875732200002,true,false,"2025-11-13T21:46:45.778Z","2026-12-31T00:00:00.000Z","2025-11-13T19:48:43.187Z","2026-06-16T10:01:58.067Z","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket.com\u002Fevent\u002Fwill-ukraine-agree-to-cede-territory-to-russia-before-2027?r=predstack",[35,36,37,38,39,40,41],"will ukraine agree to cede territory to russia before 2027?","will ukraine agree to cede territory to russia before 2027? prediction","will ukraine agree to cede territory to russia before 2027? odds","will ukraine agree to cede territory to russia before 2027? probability","geopolitics prediction market","geopolitical forecast","geopolitical probability","2026-06-16T10:29:20.778Z","2026-06-16T10:08:27.223Z",0,[46,62,73],{"id":47,"title":48,"slug":49,"category":10,"subcategory":50,"tags":51,"probability":44,"createdAt":58,"updatedAt":59,"resolutionDate":30,"description":60,"summary":60,"volume1wk":61,"featured":27},"357807","US x Iran permanent peace deal by...?","us-x-iran-permanent-peace-deal-by","Iran",[50,14,52,53,54,55,56,15,16,57],"ceasefire","Iran Ceasefire","Agreement","10-point","U.S. x Iran","Peace Deal","2026-05-30T10:42:43.363Z","2026-06-16T10:07:37.026Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran and the United states agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. \n\nA permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between the US and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the two-week ceasefire agreement announced on April 7, 2026), will not qualify.\n\nA qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:\n\n- The United States and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.\n\n- Both the governments of the United States and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",80346197.77405979,{"id":63,"title":64,"slug":65,"category":10,"subcategory":50,"tags":66,"probability":67,"createdAt":68,"updatedAt":69,"resolutionDate":70,"description":71,"summary":71,"volume1wk":72,"featured":27},"504099","Iran ceasefire continues through...?","iran-ceasefire-continues-through",[50,16,53,15],100,"2026-05-30T10:42:43.405Z","2026-05-30T10:36:50.144Z",null,"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the US-Iranian ceasefire remains in effect through the listed date (ET).  Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. \n\nThe US-Iranian ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect if the US government officially publicly confirms or if an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirms that the U.S. conducted a kinetic military action on Iranian soil before the resolution date. \n\nConfirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action must occur within one calendar day following the underlying action (i.e., by 11:59 PM ET on the following calendar day) in order to qualify. Accordingly, this market will remain open for one calendar day following the listed end date to allow for confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action occurring near the deadline.\n\nA qualifying \"kinetic military action\" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory. \n\nKinetic action against Iranian forces which do not occur within Iranian terrestrial territory will not qualify. \n\nActions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.\n\nThe resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.",25312735.30568604,{"id":74,"title":75,"slug":76,"category":10,"subcategory":16,"tags":77,"probability":44,"createdAt":78,"updatedAt":79,"resolutionDate":70,"description":80,"summary":80,"volume1wk":81,"featured":27},"517606","US announces new Iran agreement\u002Fceasefire extension by...?","us-announces-new-iran-agreementceasefire-extension-by",[16,15,53,50,56,57],"2026-05-30T10:42:44.017Z","2026-06-16T10:06:05.405Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if the U.S. officially announces an extension of the ceasefire agreement between the U.S. and Iran, defined as a publicly announced commitment to the continued halt of direct military engagement with Iran or announces a new peace agreement, ceasefire framework, or diplomatic agreement under which the ceasefire will continue by the specified date 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf a qualifying announcement is officially made before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire extension ultimately takes effect.\n\nA qualifying announcement requires clear public confirmation from the U.S. government that the U.S. has either:\n \n1. Extended its commitment to the ceasefire, either as a dated\u002Ftime-based extension (e.g. a 60 day extension) or through an explicit statement that the ceasefire has been extended.\n\n2. Renewed the existing ceasefire as part of a broader peace agreement, ceasefire framework, or diplomatic agreement under which the ceasefire will continue.\n\nStatements which merely acknowledge, reaffirm, or describe the current ceasefire as remaining in effect, or which outline further negotiations or de-escalation measures, without announcing a new extension period, or successor agreement under which the ceasefire will continue, will not qualify.\n\nThe following would qualify:\n- President Trump announcing that “the ceasefire has been extended for another 60 days.”\n- An official U.S. statement announcing that “the United States and Iran have agreed to extend the ceasefire framework while negotiations continue.”\n- President Trump’s April 21, 2026 announcement extending the ceasefire “until the Iranian negotiators could reach a unified proposal.”\n- An announcement that the US and Iran have agreed to a new temporary framework under which the ceasefire would continue as Iran gradually reopens the Strait of Hormuz and the United States begins to unfreeze Iranian assets would qualify.\n\nThe following would not qualify:\n- Statements that the ceasefire merely “remains in effect” or “continues to hold,” without announcing a new extension, renewal, or successor agreement.\n- Statements that “the ceasefire will remain in effect while negotiations continue,” without announcing that the ceasefire itself has been extended, or a new framework or deal has been reached\n- Statements that negotiations are progressing, that talks are ongoing, or that the parties are “getting closer” to a deal, without announcing that the ceasefire itself has been extended, renewed, or continued under a new agreement.\n\n\nAn overwhelming consensus of credible reporting that a qualifying extension or successor agreement has been definitively established will also suffice for a “Yes” resolution.\n\nThis market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the U.S. government and will not require confirmation from Iran. ",16205133.21684103,1781606238953]