[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":78},["ShallowReactive",2],{"event-page-will-trump-visit-pakistan-by-april-30":3},{"event":4,"related":43},{"id":5,"slug":6,"title":7,"description":8,"summary":9,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":12,"image":19,"probability":20,"volume24hr":21,"volume1wk":22,"liquidity":23,"openInterest":24,"trendScore":25,"active":26,"closed":27,"featured":27,"startDate":28,"endDate":29,"createdAtRemote":30,"updatedAtRemote":31,"affiliateUrl":32,"polymarketUrl":32,"searchKeywords":33,"syncedAt":41,"createdAt":42,"marketCount":20},"385636","will-trump-visit-pakistan-by-april-30","Will Trump visit Pakistan by...?","If U.S. President Donald Trump visits Pakistan by  May 31 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Yes\". Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purpose of this market, a \"visit\" is defined as Trump physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of Pakistan. Whether or not Trump enters the country's airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this information will be official information from government of the United States of America, official information from Trump or released by his verified social media accounts (e.g. https:\u002F\u002Ftwitter.com\u002FPOTUS), however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.","“Will Trump visit Pakistan by...?” is a geopolitics prediction market asking whether U.S. President Donald Trump will physically enter Pakistan before the market resolves at May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. In this event prediction, a simple overland or maritime visit to Pakistani territory counts as a “Yes”; airspace alone does not. The market matters because any Trump trip to Pakistan would carry major diplomatic significance for U.S.-Pakistan relations and broader regional geopolitics, especially given the event’s ties to the U.S. x Iran and Iran ceasefire tag set. The primary resolution source is official information from the U.S. government, Trump, or his verified social media accounts, with credible reporting also considered if needed. Current market probability is around 25%, suggesting traders see the expected outcome as less likely than not, though still plausible. As the end date approaches, market sentiment and odds may shift quickly based on travel announcements, official statements, or verified reporting. This is a live prediction market focused on whether the visit occurs before the deadline, not on the political implications of a possible trip.","GEOPOLITICS","Pakistan",[11,13,14,15,16,17,18],"Trump","U.S. x Iran","Geopolitics","Iran","Politics","Iran Ceasefire","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com\u002Fwill-trump-visit-greenland-before-july-VG-l-sGR0kmY.jpg",0,294.85,13959.912394,5739.27597,2580.676907,5483.2539122,true,false,"2026-04-17T00:36:50.701Z","2026-05-31T00:00:00.000Z","2026-04-16T15:41:20.372Z","2026-06-16T10:00:12.489Z","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket.com\u002Fevent\u002Fwill-trump-visit-pakistan-by-april-30?r=predstack",[34,35,36,37,38,39,40],"will trump visit pakistan by...?","will trump visit pakistan by...? prediction","will trump visit pakistan by...? odds","will trump visit pakistan by...? probability","geopolitics prediction market","geopolitical forecast","geopolitical probability","2026-06-16T10:08:28.462Z","2026-05-30T10:42:55.486Z",[44,58,69],{"id":45,"title":46,"slug":47,"category":10,"subcategory":16,"tags":48,"probability":20,"createdAt":53,"updatedAt":54,"resolutionDate":55,"description":56,"summary":56,"volume1wk":57,"featured":26},"357807","US x Iran permanent peace deal by...?","us-x-iran-permanent-peace-deal-by",[16,13,49,18,50,51,14,15,17,52],"ceasefire","Agreement","10-point","Peace Deal","2026-05-30T10:42:43.363Z","2026-06-16T10:07:37.026Z","2026-12-31T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran and the United states agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. \n\nA permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between the US and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the two-week ceasefire agreement announced on April 7, 2026), will not qualify.\n\nA qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:\n\n- The United States and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.\n\n- Both the governments of the United States and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",80346197.77405979,{"id":59,"title":60,"slug":61,"category":10,"subcategory":16,"tags":62,"probability":63,"createdAt":64,"updatedAt":65,"resolutionDate":66,"description":67,"summary":67,"volume1wk":68,"featured":26},"504099","Iran ceasefire continues through...?","iran-ceasefire-continues-through",[16,17,18,15],100,"2026-05-30T10:42:43.405Z","2026-05-30T10:36:50.144Z",null,"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the US-Iranian ceasefire remains in effect through the listed date (ET).  Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. \n\nThe US-Iranian ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect if the US government officially publicly confirms or if an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirms that the U.S. conducted a kinetic military action on Iranian soil before the resolution date. \n\nConfirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action must occur within one calendar day following the underlying action (i.e., by 11:59 PM ET on the following calendar day) in order to qualify. Accordingly, this market will remain open for one calendar day following the listed end date to allow for confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action occurring near the deadline.\n\nA qualifying \"kinetic military action\" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory. \n\nKinetic action against Iranian forces which do not occur within Iranian terrestrial territory will not qualify. \n\nActions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.\n\nThe resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.",25312735.30568604,{"id":70,"title":71,"slug":72,"category":10,"subcategory":17,"tags":73,"probability":20,"createdAt":74,"updatedAt":75,"resolutionDate":66,"description":76,"summary":76,"volume1wk":77,"featured":26},"517606","US announces new Iran agreement\u002Fceasefire extension by...?","us-announces-new-iran-agreementceasefire-extension-by",[17,15,18,16,14,52],"2026-05-30T10:42:44.017Z","2026-06-16T10:06:05.405Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if the U.S. officially announces an extension of the ceasefire agreement between the U.S. and Iran, defined as a publicly announced commitment to the continued halt of direct military engagement with Iran or announces a new peace agreement, ceasefire framework, or diplomatic agreement under which the ceasefire will continue by the specified date 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf a qualifying announcement is officially made before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire extension ultimately takes effect.\n\nA qualifying announcement requires clear public confirmation from the U.S. government that the U.S. has either:\n \n1. Extended its commitment to the ceasefire, either as a dated\u002Ftime-based extension (e.g. a 60 day extension) or through an explicit statement that the ceasefire has been extended.\n\n2. Renewed the existing ceasefire as part of a broader peace agreement, ceasefire framework, or diplomatic agreement under which the ceasefire will continue.\n\nStatements which merely acknowledge, reaffirm, or describe the current ceasefire as remaining in effect, or which outline further negotiations or de-escalation measures, without announcing a new extension period, or successor agreement under which the ceasefire will continue, will not qualify.\n\nThe following would qualify:\n- President Trump announcing that “the ceasefire has been extended for another 60 days.”\n- An official U.S. statement announcing that “the United States and Iran have agreed to extend the ceasefire framework while negotiations continue.”\n- President Trump’s April 21, 2026 announcement extending the ceasefire “until the Iranian negotiators could reach a unified proposal.”\n- An announcement that the US and Iran have agreed to a new temporary framework under which the ceasefire would continue as Iran gradually reopens the Strait of Hormuz and the United States begins to unfreeze Iranian assets would qualify.\n\nThe following would not qualify:\n- Statements that the ceasefire merely “remains in effect” or “continues to hold,” without announcing a new extension, renewal, or successor agreement.\n- Statements that “the ceasefire will remain in effect while negotiations continue,” without announcing that the ceasefire itself has been extended, or a new framework or deal has been reached\n- Statements that negotiations are progressing, that talks are ongoing, or that the parties are “getting closer” to a deal, without announcing that the ceasefire itself has been extended, renewed, or continued under a new agreement.\n\n\nAn overwhelming consensus of credible reporting that a qualifying extension or successor agreement has been definitively established will also suffice for a “Yes” resolution.\n\nThis market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the U.S. government and will not require confirmation from Iran. ",16205133.21684103,1781809689881]