[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":83},["ShallowReactive",2],{"event-page-will-trump-attend-nato-summit-279":3},{"event":4,"related":42},{"id":5,"slug":6,"title":7,"description":8,"summary":9,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":12,"image":17,"probability":18,"volume24hr":19,"volume1wk":20,"liquidity":21,"openInterest":22,"trendScore":23,"active":24,"closed":25,"featured":25,"startDate":26,"endDate":27,"createdAtRemote":28,"updatedAtRemote":29,"affiliateUrl":30,"polymarketUrl":30,"searchKeywords":31,"syncedAt":39,"createdAt":40,"marketCount":41},"354937","will-trump-attend-nato-summit-279","Who will attend the NATO Summit?","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Donald Trump attends the NATO Summit event scheduled for July 7, 2026 – July 8, 2026\n in Ankara, Türkiye. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf the event is canceled or postponed beyond August 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nAttending the NATO Summit is defined as being in physical attendance in the event at any point between the start and end of the Summit.\n\nThe resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.","Who will attend the NATO Summit? is a geopolitics prediction market focused on whether Donald Trump will physically attend the NATO Summit scheduled for July 7–8, 2026, in Ankara, Türkiye. The market resolves to Yes if Trump is in attendance at any point during the summit, and No if he does not attend. If the summit is canceled or postponed beyond August 30, 2026, the event prediction also resolves to No. The resolution source is a consensus of credible reporting.\n\nThis forecast matters because NATO summits are closely watched for signals about transatlantic policy, alliance coordination, and U.S. political involvement in international security meetings. Traders are effectively pricing the expected outcome of Trump’s participation, making this a useful indicator of market sentiment around the event.\n\nAs of the latest update, the market implies about an 83.3% probability that Trump will attend. The prediction market remains active through the summit date, with odds likely to shift as reporting develops and the July deadline approaches.","GEOPOLITICS","NATO",[11,13,14,15,16],"Trump","Iran","Politics","Geopolitics","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com\u002Fwill-trump-attend-nato-summit-unvbLOEMlmPe.jpg",83.3,1944.301196,11739.815552,36192.13542,16313.827509,11732.5223476,true,false,"2026-04-07T20:34:06.320Z","2026-07-08T00:00:00.000Z","2026-04-07T20:06:19.741Z","2026-06-16T10:07:01.138Z","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket.com\u002Fevent\u002Fwill-trump-attend-nato-summit-279?r=predstack",[32,33,34,35,36,37,38],"who will attend the nato summit?","who will attend the nato summit? prediction","who will attend the nato summit? odds","who will attend the nato summit? probability","geopolitics prediction market","geopolitical forecast","geopolitical probability","2026-06-16T10:32:36.001Z","2026-06-16T10:08:31.139Z",0,[43,56,72],{"id":44,"title":45,"slug":46,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":47,"probability":50,"createdAt":51,"updatedAt":52,"resolutionDate":53,"description":54,"summary":54,"volume1wk":55,"featured":25},"330210","Trump-Denmark Greenland deal signed by June 30?","trump-denmark-greenland-deal-signed-by-june-30-588",[11,48,16,13,49,15],"Greenland","Denmark",14.5,"2026-05-30T10:43:26.611Z","2026-05-30T10:34:49.544Z","2026-06-30T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if both Denmark and the United States sign a deal, treaty, or similar international agreement of any kind relating to Greenland by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAny U.S.–Danish agreement relating to Greenland will qualify, regardless of subject matter, including but not limited to sovereignty, governance, security arrangements, or access to natural resources.\n\nExamples of qualifying deals include but are not limited to a treaty that makes any portion of Greenland a U.S. territory or possession (even if the handover date for such territory or possession is later); or, a Guantánamo-style arrangement treaty establishing a defined zone in Greenland under exclusive or primary U.S. jurisdiction and control, where Denmark and Greenland’s ordinary legal authority does not apply except by U.S. permission; or agreements permitting additional U.S. troop stationing, basing access, or resource extraction rights in Greenland.\n\nThis market will resolve to “Yes” only if a qualifying agreement is formally signed by authorized representatives of both Denmark and the United States. Official announcements, statements of intent, or declarations that an agreement has been reached will not suffice unless accompanied by signatures from both sides. Whether or not a qualifying deal is later passed by the respective parliaments or enters into force will not affect this market’s resolution. Signaling from Greenland’s population will not be considered.\n\nAnnouncements, negotiations, proposals, frameworks, or understandings that are not formally signed by both parties will not qualify. Any qualifying U.S. jurisdiction, control, basing rights, or access arrangements in Greenland that existed at market creation will not count as new qualifying agreements.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Denmark; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",9988.736106,{"id":57,"title":58,"slug":59,"category":10,"subcategory":14,"tags":60,"probability":41,"createdAt":67,"updatedAt":68,"resolutionDate":69,"description":70,"summary":70,"volume1wk":71,"featured":24},"357807","US x Iran permanent peace deal by...?","us-x-iran-permanent-peace-deal-by",[14,13,61,62,63,64,65,16,15,66],"ceasefire","Iran Ceasefire","Agreement","10-point","U.S. x Iran","Peace Deal","2026-05-30T10:42:43.363Z","2026-06-16T10:07:37.026Z","2026-12-31T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran and the United states agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. \n\nA permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between the US and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the two-week ceasefire agreement announced on April 7, 2026), will not qualify.\n\nA qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:\n\n- The United States and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.\n\n- Both the governments of the United States and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",80346197.77405979,{"id":73,"title":74,"slug":75,"category":10,"subcategory":14,"tags":76,"probability":77,"createdAt":78,"updatedAt":79,"resolutionDate":80,"description":81,"summary":81,"volume1wk":82,"featured":24},"504099","Iran ceasefire continues through...?","iran-ceasefire-continues-through",[14,15,62,16],100,"2026-05-30T10:42:43.405Z","2026-05-30T10:36:50.144Z",null,"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the US-Iranian ceasefire remains in effect through the listed date (ET).  Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. \n\nThe US-Iranian ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect if the US government officially publicly confirms or if an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirms that the U.S. conducted a kinetic military action on Iranian soil before the resolution date. \n\nConfirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action must occur within one calendar day following the underlying action (i.e., by 11:59 PM ET on the following calendar day) in order to qualify. Accordingly, this market will remain open for one calendar day following the listed end date to allow for confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action occurring near the deadline.\n\nA qualifying \"kinetic military action\" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory. \n\nKinetic action against Iranian forces which do not occur within Iranian terrestrial territory will not qualify. \n\nActions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.\n\nThe resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.",25312735.30568604,1781606238640]