[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":83},["ShallowReactive",2],{"event-page-will-the-workers-party-nominate-lula-for-president-of-brazil-by-august-15":3},{"event":4,"related":42},{"id":5,"slug":6,"title":7,"description":8,"summary":9,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":12,"image":17,"probability":18,"volume24hr":19,"volume1wk":20,"liquidity":21,"openInterest":22,"trendScore":23,"active":24,"closed":25,"featured":25,"startDate":26,"endDate":27,"createdAtRemote":28,"updatedAtRemote":29,"affiliateUrl":30,"polymarketUrl":30,"searchKeywords":31,"syncedAt":39,"createdAt":40,"marketCount":41},"385500","will-the-workers-party-nominate-lula-for-president-of-brazil-by-august-15","Will the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by August 15?","The 2026 Brazil presidential election is currently scheduled to be held on October 4, 2026. Political parties must file candidate registration applications with the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) for the 2026 Brazil presidential election by August 15, 2026, 7:00 PM Brasília time (UTC−03:00).\n\nThis market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Workers’ Party (Partido dos Trabalhadores, PT) files a candidate registration application nominating Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva for President of Brazil by August 15, 2026, 7:00 PM Brasília time (UTC−03:00). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nA filing by a coalition (coligação) or party federation (federação partidária) that includes the PT and names Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva as its presidential candidate will also qualify.\n\nThis market will resolve based on the filing date (Data de Autuação) of an applicable Application for Registration of Candidacy (Requerimento de Registro de Candidatura, RRC). An Application for Registration of Individual Candidacy (Requerimento de Registro de Candidatura Individual, RRCI) will not qualify for resolution of this market. \n\nThe primary resolution source will be official filings from the Superior Electoral Court (TSE); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.","Will the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by August 15? is a Brazil election prediction market focused on whether the Partido dos Trabalhadores (PT) will formally register Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva as its presidential candidate with the Superior Electoral Court (TSE) before the filing deadline. The forecast hinges on an official candidate registration application, or a qualifying coalition or party federation filing that names Lula, by August 15, 2026 at 7:00 PM Brasília time. An individual candidacy filing would not count for resolution. This matters because the filing deadline is a key step in the 2026 Brazil presidential election, which is scheduled for October 4, 2026. Traders in this election forecast are watching party procedure, coalition dynamics, and official TSE documentation to assess the expected outcome. Current market probability is around 76%, suggesting traders currently see a relatively high chance that the PT will nominate Lula on time, though the result still depends on the filing record and any credible reporting available at resolution.","ELECTIONS","Brazil",[11,13,14,15,16],"Politics","lula","Elections","Global Elections","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com\u002Flula-out-before-february-0hCnFmkqox93.jpg",76,2036.1934629999998,9783.016889,11682.3167,20479.629867,6289.465138199999,true,false,"2026-04-17T22:32:04.523Z","2026-08-15T06:00:00.000Z","2026-04-16T14:37:29.461Z","2026-05-30T10:30:51.286Z","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket.com\u002Fevent\u002Fwill-the-workers-party-nominate-lula-for-president-of-brazil-by-august-15?r=predstack",[32,33,34,35,36,37,38],"will the workers' party nominate lula for president of brazil by august 15?","will the workers' party nominate lula for president of brazil by august 15? prediction","will the workers' party nominate lula for president of brazil by august 15? odds","will the workers' party nominate lula for president of brazil by august 15? probability","election prediction market","election forecast","election odds","2026-06-05T13:46:38.917Z","2026-05-30T10:43:27.038Z",0,[43,58,68],{"id":44,"title":45,"slug":46,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":47,"probability":52,"createdAt":53,"updatedAt":54,"resolutionDate":55,"description":56,"summary":56,"volume1wk":57,"featured":25},"45915","Brazil Presidential Election","brazil-presidential-election",[11,16,48,49,13,50,51],"World Elections","World","Macro Election 2","Main Election",0.15,"2026-05-30T10:42:44.323Z","2026-05-30T10:40:02.997Z","2026-10-04T00:00:00.000Z","A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election.\n\nThis market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThis market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https:\u002F\u002Fdadosabertos.tse.jus.br\u002F).",5694345.351489,{"id":59,"title":60,"slug":61,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":62,"probability":63,"createdAt":64,"updatedAt":65,"resolutionDate":55,"description":66,"summary":66,"volume1wk":67,"featured":25},"204972","Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place","brazil-presidential-election-first-round-2nd-place",[11,13,49,16,15],18.7,"2026-05-30T10:43:18.253Z","2026-05-30T10:40:19.598Z","A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.\n\nThe named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.\n\nIf the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThis market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https:\u002F\u002Fdadosabertos.tse.jus.br\u002F).",16633.273896,{"id":69,"title":70,"slug":71,"category":10,"subcategory":48,"tags":72,"probability":77,"createdAt":78,"updatedAt":79,"resolutionDate":80,"description":81,"summary":81,"volume1wk":82,"featured":24},"30829","Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028","democratic-presidential-nominee-2028",[48,16,15,13,73,74,75,76],"US Election","Earn 4%","Primaries","United States",1.05,"2026-05-30T10:42:43.593Z","2026-05-30T10:32:02.146Z","2028-11-07T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources.\n\nAny replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.",14863770.623744,1780676588107]