[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":81},["ShallowReactive",2],{"event-page-will-the-us-reopen-its-embassy-in-iran-in-2026":3},{"event":4,"related":44},{"id":5,"slug":6,"title":7,"description":8,"summary":9,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":12,"image":19,"probability":20,"volume24hr":21,"volume1wk":22,"liquidity":23,"openInterest":24,"trendScore":25,"active":26,"closed":27,"featured":27,"startDate":28,"endDate":29,"createdAtRemote":30,"updatedAtRemote":31,"affiliateUrl":32,"polymarketUrl":32,"searchKeywords":33,"syncedAt":41,"createdAt":42,"marketCount":43},"239804","will-the-us-reopen-its-embassy-in-iran-in-2026","Will the US reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026?","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the U.S. government announces the reopening\u002Fopening of any embassy or consulate in Iran, or if such a reopening\u002Fopening is otherwise confirmed, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nAn official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a \"Yes\" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.\n\nAny opening of a U.S. embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.\n\nAnnouncements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial\u002Fconditional steps, will not count.\n\nThe resolution source will be official statements from the Governments of the U.S.; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.","Will the US reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026? is a geopolitics prediction market focused on whether the U.S. government will announce the reopening or opening of any embassy or consulate in Iran by December 31, 2026. The market resolves to Yes if there is an official U.S. announcement within the timeframe, or if a reopening is otherwise confirmed; general diplomatic language, exploratory remarks, or conditional steps do not qualify. Any U.S. embassy or consulate opening in Iran, regardless of exact location, would count. This event matters because it reflects the state of U.S. x Iran relations, broader Middle East diplomacy, and the possibility of a meaningful shift in geopolitical engagement. Market sentiment currently implies a 9.5% probability, suggesting traders see the expected outcome as unlikely but not impossible. As a prediction market, it provides a live forecast of odds on a specific diplomatic event rather than a policy judgment. The timeframe runs from March 1, 2026 through the end of 2026, with official government statements and credible reporting used for resolution.","GEOPOLITICS","Middle East",[11,13,14,15,16,17,18],"Politics","Geopolitics","Iran","World","U.S. x Iran","Iran Regime","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com\u002Fwill-the-us-reopen-its-embassy-in-iran-in-2026-cuyqFQ1LYUlq.jpg",9.5,24.436316,60195.54631600001,14555.1819,11547.880343,20981.9184328,true,false,"2026-03-01T20:13:29.670Z","2026-12-31T00:00:00.000Z","2026-03-01T19:19:55.860Z","2026-05-30T10:31:11.266Z","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket.com\u002Fevent\u002Fwill-the-us-reopen-its-embassy-in-iran-in-2026?r=predstack",[34,35,36,37,38,39,40],"will the us reopen its embassy in iran in 2026?","will the us reopen its embassy in iran in 2026? prediction","will the us reopen its embassy in iran in 2026? odds","will the us reopen its embassy in iran in 2026? probability","geopolitics prediction market","geopolitical forecast","geopolitical probability","2026-06-05T13:19:14.693Z","2026-05-30T10:43:00.832Z",0,[45,57,70],{"id":46,"title":47,"slug":48,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":49,"probability":51,"createdAt":52,"updatedAt":53,"resolutionDate":54,"description":55,"summary":55,"volume1wk":56,"featured":26},"429456","Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?","iran-agrees-to-end-enrichment-of-uranium-by-may-31-945",[11,50,17,14,15],"Iran Ceasefire",3.1,"2026-05-30T10:42:47.765Z","2026-05-30T10:37:12.706Z","2026-05-31T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.\n\nAny agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if\u002Fwhen the agreement goes into effect.\n\nAn agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.\n\nAn agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. \n\nAgreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. ",773488.0177810004,{"id":58,"title":59,"slug":60,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":61,"probability":64,"createdAt":65,"updatedAt":66,"resolutionDate":67,"description":68,"summary":68,"volume1wk":69,"featured":27},"108031","US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?","us-iran-nuclear-deal-by-june-30",[11,16,15,62,13,14,50,63],"Israel","Nuclear",39.5,"2026-05-30T10:42:45.883Z","2026-05-30T10:38:49.653Z","2026-06-30T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and\u002For nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nIf such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to \"Yes\", regardless of if\u002Fwhen the agreement goes into effect.\n\nAgreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and\u002For the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.",1609108.003832003,{"id":71,"title":72,"slug":73,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":74,"probability":76,"createdAt":77,"updatedAt":78,"resolutionDate":29,"description":79,"summary":79,"volume1wk":80,"featured":27},"237598","Iran leader end of 2026?","iran-leader-end-of-2026",[11,15,16,14,13,18,75],"Rewards 50, 4.5, 100 Deprec",2.35,"2026-05-30T10:42:45.750Z","2026-06-16T10:07:06.068Z","This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.\n\nFormal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.\n\nIf more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.\n\nIndicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.\n\nSymbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.\n\nIf no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.\n\nThe primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.",1419392.740783,1781809688648]