[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":85},["ShallowReactive",2],{"event-page-will-the-us-invade-cuba-in-2026":3},{"event":4,"related":41},{"id":5,"slug":6,"title":7,"description":8,"summary":9,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":12,"image":16,"probability":17,"volume24hr":18,"volume1wk":19,"liquidity":20,"openInterest":21,"trendScore":22,"active":23,"closed":24,"featured":24,"startDate":25,"endDate":26,"createdAtRemote":27,"updatedAtRemote":28,"affiliateUrl":29,"polymarketUrl":29,"searchKeywords":30,"syncedAt":38,"createdAt":39,"marketCount":40},"143691","will-the-us-invade-cuba-in-2026","Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Cuban land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Cuba or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.","Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? is a political prediction market focused on whether the United States will begin a military offensive intended to establish control over any part of Cuban land territory by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. The market resolves to “Yes” only if credible sources show such an invasion or offensive; otherwise it resolves to “No.” In this context, the definition of sovereign territory also accounts for land de facto controlled by either Cuba or the United States at market creation.\n\nThis event matters because it sits at the intersection of U.S. foreign policy, geopolitics, and Caribbean security. Traders are effectively forecasting the expected outcome of a major escalation between the U.S. and Cuba, with market sentiment reflecting how likely such a confrontation appears over the 2026 timeframe. As of the latest data, the market probability is about 22.5%, suggesting the event is viewed as possible but far from the base case.\n\nThe prediction window opened on January 4, 2026 and runs through year-end, making this a live event prediction with updates likely to track diplomatic and military developments.","POLITICS","Politics",[11,13,14,15],"Venezuela","Geopolitics","Cuba","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com\u002Fus-strike-on-cuba-by-EstR5MqlPUOe.jpg",22.5,20092.684043,123129.36060900002,89416.4243,382412.961529,64868.435064200006,true,false,"2026-01-04T20:26:00.115Z","2026-12-31T00:00:00.000Z","2026-01-04T20:22:49.621Z","2026-05-30T10:36:33.228Z","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket.com\u002Fevent\u002Fwill-the-us-invade-cuba-in-2026?r=predstack",[31,32,33,34,35,36,37],"will the u.s. invade cuba in 2026?","will the u.s. invade cuba in 2026? prediction","will the u.s. invade cuba in 2026? odds","will the u.s. invade cuba in 2026? probability","political prediction market","political forecast","political probability","2026-06-05T13:13:09.040Z","2026-05-30T10:42:55.304Z",0,[42,60,72],{"id":43,"title":44,"slug":45,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":46,"probability":54,"createdAt":55,"updatedAt":56,"resolutionDate":57,"description":58,"summary":58,"volume1wk":59,"featured":23},"31875","Republican Presidential Nominee 2028","republican-presidential-nominee-2028",[11,47,48,49,50,51,52,53],"US Election","Elections","World Elections","Global Elections","Earn 4%","Primaries","United States",2.75,"2026-05-30T10:42:43.975Z","2026-05-30T10:39:47.083Z","2028-11-07T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources.\n\nAny replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.",9249335.794150999,{"id":61,"title":62,"slug":63,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":64,"probability":40,"createdAt":67,"updatedAt":68,"resolutionDate":69,"description":70,"summary":70,"volume1wk":71,"featured":23},"438327","Iran closes its airspace by...?","iran-closes-its-airspace-by",[11,14,65,66],"U.S. x Iran","Iran","2026-05-30T10:42:44.156Z","2026-05-30T10:38:40.231Z","2026-05-31T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran initiates a major closure of its airspace, that is not solely due to weather conditions, by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nA “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or suspension of commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from Iranian airspace or a major Iranian Airspace region. A qualifying closure must apply generally to flights across Iran or a major Iranian airspace region. Limited cancellations, delays, or other partial closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain flights pre-approved by the Iranian Civil Aviation Authority may be permitted). \n\nAny non-weather complete suspension of commercial arrivals and departures affecting at least two of the following airports will qualify: Imam Khomeini International Airport (IKA), Mehrabad Airport (THR), Mashhad International Airport (MHD), Shiraz International Airport (SYZ), or Isfahan International Airport (IFN).\n\nQualifying previous examples include the January 2026 total closure of Iranian airspace except to international flights with express governmental permission (https:\u002F\u002Fwww.reuters.com\u002Fworld\u002Fmiddle-east\u002Firan-shuts-airspace-most-flights-flightradar24-says-2026-01-14\u002F) and the April 2024 closure of Iran’s western airspace (https:\u002F\u002Fwww.reuters.com\u002Fworld\u002Fmiddle-east\u002Firanian-airports-cancel-flights-until-monday-morning-2024-04-14\u002F). Non-qualifying examples include the January 27, 2026 partial closure of Iranian airspace around the Strait of Hormuz (https:\u002F\u002Fwww.aa.com.tr\u002Fen\u002Fmiddle-east\u002Firan-issues-airspace-notice-for-military-drills-near-strait-of-hormuz\u002F3812508) and the January 25 - April 25, 2026 VFR (Visual Flight Rules) flights suspension which did not broadly close commercial aviation in a qualifying region (https:\u002F\u002Fwww.intellinews.com\u002Firan-suspends-general-aviation-and-vfr-flights-in-new-airspace-directive-421997\u002F).\n\nWarnings, No-Fly-Zones, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Iran will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.\n\nAirspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from Iranian aviation authorities and a consensus of credible reporting.",6620506.11378,{"id":73,"title":74,"slug":75,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":76,"probability":40,"createdAt":80,"updatedAt":81,"resolutionDate":82,"description":83,"summary":83,"volume1wk":84,"featured":23},"371649","US x Iran diplomatic meeting by...?","us-x-iran-diplomatic-meeting-by-329",[11,77,66,78,79,65,14],"Iran Ceasefire","Vance","Trump","2026-05-30T10:42:45.013Z","2026-05-30T10:39:46.810Z","2026-04-30T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nA diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. \n\nBrief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.  \n\nThe meeting must be in-person and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.\n\nThe resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.",2654417.6848280015,1780676611447]