[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":86},["ShallowReactive",2],{"event-page-will-the-iranian-regime-survive-us-military-strikes-741":3},{"event":4,"related":45},{"id":5,"slug":6,"title":7,"description":8,"summary":9,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":12,"image":20,"probability":21,"volume24hr":22,"volume1wk":23,"liquidity":24,"openInterest":25,"trendScore":26,"active":27,"closed":28,"featured":28,"startDate":29,"endDate":30,"createdAtRemote":31,"updatedAtRemote":32,"affiliateUrl":33,"polymarketUrl":33,"searchKeywords":34,"syncedAt":42,"createdAt":43,"marketCount":44},"162089","will-the-iranian-regime-survive-us-military-strikes-741","Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes?","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if both of the following conditions are met by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\n\n1. The US initiates a military action on Iranian soil, airspace, or maritime territory or against any Iranian embassies or consulates by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. \n\nFor the purposes of this market, a \"military action\" will be considered to be any use of force executed by the US military on Iranian soil, airspace, or maritime territory (e.g. if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US missile) that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting. This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, or ground invasions. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.\n\n\n2. The Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is NOT overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. \n\nThe Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime will be considered overthrown if a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.\n\nRoutine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.\n\nPartial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.\n\nThe resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.\n\nNote: If the Iranian regime falls - as defined above - prior to a qualifying U.S. military action, this market will immediately resolve to \"No\". ","Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes? is a geopolitics prediction market that asks whether the Islamic Republic of Iran will still be governing by June 30, 2026, after any qualifying U.S. military action on Iranian soil, airspace, maritime territory, or against Iranian embassies or consulates. The event resolves to Yes only if both conditions are met: the U.S. carries out a formally acknowledged military strike or other use of force, and Iran’s current ruling regime does not collapse, get overthrown, or otherwise cease to exercise sovereign power. The market excludes sanctions, cyberattacks, diplomacy, and ordinary political changes such as elections or leadership succession. It also requires a clear break in continuity, based on credible reporting, for regime change to count. As of the latest market data, traders assign a 97.65% probability to the Yes outcome, indicating strong market sentiment that the regime would survive if the trigger event occurs. The forecast is relevant to Middle East politics, U.S.-Iran relations, and broader geopolitical risk assessment.","GEOPOLITICS","Geopolitics",[11,13,14,15,16,17,18,19],"World","Khamenei","Iran","Middle East","Israel","Politics","Iran Regime","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com\u002Fwill-the-iranian-regime-survive-us-military-strikes-lHYttoC4kERJ.jpg",99.25,2315.696,94014.65999199997,115455.58132,160132.058086,52453.36226159999,true,false,"2026-01-13T21:17:39.470Z","2026-06-30T00:00:00.000Z","2026-01-13T20:05:31.844Z","2026-06-16T10:01:05.136Z","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket.com\u002Fevent\u002Fwill-the-iranian-regime-survive-us-military-strikes-741?r=predstack",[35,36,37,38,39,40,41],"will the iranian regime survive u.s. military strikes?","will the iranian regime survive u.s. military strikes? prediction","will the iranian regime survive u.s. military strikes? odds","will the iranian regime survive u.s. military strikes? probability","geopolitics prediction market","geopolitical forecast","geopolitical probability","2026-06-16T10:08:04.182Z","2026-05-30T10:43:01.448Z",0,[46,61,73],{"id":47,"title":48,"slug":49,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":50,"probability":44,"createdAt":56,"updatedAt":57,"resolutionDate":58,"description":59,"summary":59,"volume1wk":60,"featured":27},"310530","Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?","iran-agrees-to-surrender-enriched-uranium-stockpile-by",[11,51,16,52,18,53,15,54,55],"Trump","Iran Ceasefire","U.S. x Iran","Nuclear","Negotiation Topics","2026-05-30T10:42:44.555Z","2026-06-16T10:02:41.231Z","2026-12-31T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Iran publicly agrees to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn official pledge by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.\n\nAn agreement by Iran to surrender any amount of its enriched uranium stockpile will count.\n\nTo qualify, Iran must publicly agree that its enriched uranium stockpile, or any portion thereof, will be transferred, shipped, or placed under the custody or control of any entity outside of Iran and its influence, excluding non-state armed groups or Iranian-aligned organizations (such as Hezbollah, the Houthis, or similar actors).\n\nAny agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if\u002Fwhen the agreement goes into effect.\n\nAn agreement by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.\n\nAgreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.",1350422.5297449993,{"id":62,"title":63,"slug":64,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":65,"probability":67,"createdAt":68,"updatedAt":69,"resolutionDate":70,"description":71,"summary":71,"volume1wk":72,"featured":27},"599086","US-Iran deal text released by...?","us-iran-deal-text-released-byptptpt-20260615224044572",[11,66,53,15,18],"Peace Deal",90.5,"2026-06-16T10:08:14.774Z","2026-06-16T10:05:13.139Z","2026-07-01T03:59:00.000Z","On June 14, 2026, the US and Iran announced a written diplomatic agreement between the two countries, with an announced signing ceremony on June 19.\n\nThis market will resolve to “Yes” if any portion of the text of the agreement announced by the United States and Iran on June 14, 2026 is made widely available to the public by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe “agreement announced by the United States and Iran on June 14, 2026” includes any later-modified version that is publicly identified by credible reporting as a successor version of the same agreement.\n\nThe “text of the agreement” refers to the actual textual wording of the written agreement, whether released through images of the physical or electronic agreement text, or through alternative verbatim disclosures of the text (e.g., publication of the text of the agreement in a news article). Public disclosures of the deal’s contents, without the public disclosure of the actual text of the agreement, will not qualify. Public disclosures of text from draft proposals prior to the version of the agreement announced on June 14, 2026, will not qualify. \n\nA qualifying portion of the text of this agreement may be made widely available to the public by any means, regardless of whether it is released officially, leaked, or otherwise disclosed. However, such released text must be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to be genuine text of the agreement.\n\nA joint statement or similar document will qualify only if it contains verbatim text of the written agreement itself or is itself the operative written agreement between the United States and Iran. A statement that merely announces or characterizes the agreement will not qualify.\n\nThe resolution sources will be official information from the United States and Iran and a consensus of credible reporting.\n",33166.259299,{"id":74,"title":75,"slug":76,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":77,"probability":44,"createdAt":81,"updatedAt":82,"resolutionDate":83,"description":84,"summary":84,"volume1wk":85,"featured":28},"386788","Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by...?","israel-x-iran-permanent-peace-deal-by",[11,78,52,17,15,79,80,66],"Lebanon","Israel x Iran","Hezbollah","2026-05-30T10:42:45.304Z","2026-06-16T10:01:41.812Z","2026-05-31T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Iran agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nA permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify.\n\nA qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:\n\n- Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.\n\n- Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.\n\nThe inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.\n",3214871.9922169973,1781809688146]