[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":80},["ShallowReactive",2],{"event-page-will-the-iranian-regime-fall-by-the-end-of-2026":3},{"event":4,"related":47},{"id":5,"slug":6,"title":7,"description":8,"summary":9,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":12,"image":22,"probability":23,"volume24hr":24,"volume1wk":25,"liquidity":26,"openInterest":27,"trendScore":28,"active":29,"closed":30,"featured":30,"startDate":31,"endDate":32,"createdAtRemote":33,"updatedAtRemote":34,"affiliateUrl":35,"polymarketUrl":35,"searchKeywords":36,"syncedAt":44,"createdAt":45,"marketCount":46},"72347","will-the-iranian-regime-fall-by-the-end-of-2026","Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThis requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.\n\nRoutine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.\n\nPartial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran. \n\nThe resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. ","Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? is a geopolitics prediction market focused on whether the Islamic Republic of Iran will stop governing before December 31, 2026. The forecasted outcome is not a routine political change: it requires a clear break in continuity, such as overthrow, collapse, revolution, civil war, military coup, or another transition that replaces the current system and ends the regime’s de facto authority over most of Iran’s population. Elections, reforms, succession, or internal power shifts that preserve core institutions like the Supreme Leader, Guardian Council, or IRGC under clerical authority do not qualify.\n\nThis event matters because it tracks market sentiment on a major Middle East and Israel-Iran geopolitical risk, with implications for regional security and global politics. Traders are currently assigning about a 14.5% probability to the regime falling by the deadline, suggesting a low but non-zero expected outcome. The market opened on November 3, 2025 and resolves at the end of 2026, with credible reporting used to determine whether the Islamic Republic has ceased to exercise sovereign power. Tags and search interest around Iran, Khamenei, Reza Pahlavi, Trump, and the broader Iran regime debate reflect the event’s political significance.","GEOPOLITICS","Israel",[11,13,14,15,16,17,18,19,20,21],"Iran","Trump","World","Khamenei","Geopolitics","Middle East","Politics","Reza Pahlavi","Iran Regime","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com\u002Fwill-the-iranian-regime-fall-in-2025-YLXIniTmQs4q.png",14.5,19008.114323,640837.0614000001,217690.5493,3606369.425822,245293.28544150005,true,false,"2025-11-03T23:54:31.344Z","2026-12-31T00:00:00.000Z","2025-11-03T21:05:24.846Z","2026-05-30T10:36:11.217Z","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket.com\u002Fevent\u002Fwill-the-iranian-regime-fall-by-the-end-of-2026?r=predstack",[37,38,39,40,41,42,43],"will the iranian regime fall before 2027?","will the iranian regime fall before 2027? prediction","will the iranian regime fall before 2027? odds","will the iranian regime fall before 2027? probability","geopolitics prediction market","geopolitical forecast","geopolitical probability","2026-06-05T13:05:31.406Z","2026-05-30T10:42:48.165Z",0,[48,59,69],{"id":49,"title":50,"slug":51,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":52,"probability":46,"createdAt":54,"updatedAt":55,"resolutionDate":56,"description":57,"summary":57,"volume1wk":58,"featured":30},"57057","Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by...?","israel-x-hamas-ceasefire-cancelled-by-october-31",[11,17,15,18,53],"Gaza","2026-05-30T10:42:46.009Z","2026-05-30T10:31:52.407Z","2026-06-30T00:00:00.000Z","On October 9, Israel and Hamas signed a deal implementing a ceasefire: https:\u002F\u002Fwww.reuters.com\u002Fworld\u002Fmiddle-east\u002Fisrael-hamas-agree-gaza-ceasefire-return-hostages-2025-10-09\u002F\n\nThis market will resolve to \"Yes\" if a either Israel or Hamas announce the cancellation of the ongoing ceasefire, or if a consensus of credible reporting confirms that the ceasefire is no longer in effect, by October 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nAnnouncements that one side or another violated the ongoing ceasefire will not be enough to resolve this market to \"Yes\"; only a definitive announcement by Israel or Hamas, or otherwise a wide consensus of credible reporting that that the ceasefire has been ended, will qualify to resolve this market to \"Yes\".\n\nThe primary solution resolution source will be official information from Hamas or the government of Israel, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",1560920.3989269985,{"id":60,"title":61,"slug":62,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":63,"probability":46,"createdAt":65,"updatedAt":66,"resolutionDate":56,"description":67,"summary":67,"volume1wk":68,"featured":30},"139507","Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by...?","will-reza-pahlavi-enter-iran-by-june-30",[11,15,13,18,17,64,20,21],"shah","2026-05-30T10:42:47.481Z","2026-05-30T10:31:40.133Z","If Reza Pahlavi visits Iran between market creation and June 30, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Yes\". Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purpose of this market, a \"visit\" is defined as Reza Pahlavi physically entering the terrestrial territory of Iran. Whether or not Reza Pahlavi enters Iranian airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.",871637.6565629999,{"id":70,"title":71,"slug":72,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":73,"probability":75,"createdAt":76,"updatedAt":77,"resolutionDate":32,"description":78,"summary":78,"volume1wk":79,"featured":30},"79192","Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by...?","israel-and-indonesia-normalize-relations-by",[11,15,17,74,18,19],"Indonesia",8.5,"2026-05-30T10:42:48.452Z","2026-05-30T10:37:33.279Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if both Israel and Indonesia officially announce the establishment of diplomatic relations by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israel and Indonesia, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",588546.4263069995,1780676612115]