[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":89},["ShallowReactive",2],{"event-page-will-the-house-pass-a-reconciliation-bill-by":3},{"event":4,"related":42},{"id":5,"slug":6,"title":7,"description":8,"summary":9,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":12,"image":17,"probability":18,"volume24hr":19,"volume1wk":20,"liquidity":21,"openInterest":22,"trendScore":23,"active":24,"closed":25,"featured":25,"startDate":26,"endDate":27,"createdAtRemote":28,"updatedAtRemote":29,"affiliateUrl":30,"polymarketUrl":30,"searchKeywords":31,"syncedAt":39,"createdAt":40,"marketCount":41},"511049","will-the-house-pass-a-reconciliation-bill-by","Will the House pass a reconciliation bill by...?","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the US House passes a reconciliation bill by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US Government. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.","\"Will the House pass a reconciliation bill by...?\" is a political prediction market asking whether the US House of Representatives will pass a reconciliation bill by the specified deadline, with resolution set for 11:59 PM ET on the end date. The market is tied to official US government information, with credible reporting also used as part of the resolution process. In practical terms, traders are forecasting whether Congress can move a budget-related reconciliation measure through the House before time expires. As of the latest market data, the implied probability is about 35%, suggesting market sentiment leans toward a No outcome, though the odds remain meaningful and can change with legislative developments. This event sits in the Politics category and is relevant to Congress, the US House, and broader federal budget and domestic policy debates. The forecast matters because reconciliation bills often carry major policy implications and can signal how much legislative support leaders can secure. The event started on May 21, 2026, and remains open through September 30, 2026, making it a time-sensitive event prediction watched closely by political observers and prediction market participants.","POLITICS","DHS",[11,13,14,15,16],"Congress","us house","CPB","Politics","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com\u002Fus+house.png",0.35,91.69855600000001,18934.815701000007,40583.03074,23344.523563000002,13842.900136300002,true,false,"2026-05-21T22:53:11.021Z","2026-09-30T00:00:00.000Z","2026-05-21T21:19:12.010Z","2026-05-30T10:40:15.090Z","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket.com\u002Fevent\u002Fwill-the-house-pass-a-reconciliation-bill-by?r=predstack",[32,33,34,35,36,37,38],"will the house pass a reconciliation bill by...?","will the house pass a reconciliation bill by...? prediction","will the house pass a reconciliation bill by...? odds","will the house pass a reconciliation bill by...? probability","political prediction market","political forecast","political probability","2026-06-05T13:34:31.193Z","2026-05-30T10:43:15.465Z",0,[43,61,74],{"id":44,"title":45,"slug":46,"category":10,"subcategory":16,"tags":47,"probability":55,"createdAt":56,"updatedAt":57,"resolutionDate":58,"description":59,"summary":59,"volume1wk":60,"featured":24},"31875","Republican Presidential Nominee 2028","republican-presidential-nominee-2028",[16,48,49,50,51,52,53,54],"US Election","Elections","World Elections","Global Elections","Earn 4%","Primaries","United States",2.75,"2026-05-30T10:42:43.975Z","2026-05-30T10:39:47.083Z","2028-11-07T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources.\n\nAny replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.",9249335.794150999,{"id":62,"title":63,"slug":64,"category":10,"subcategory":16,"tags":65,"probability":41,"createdAt":69,"updatedAt":70,"resolutionDate":71,"description":72,"summary":72,"volume1wk":73,"featured":24},"438327","Iran closes its airspace by...?","iran-closes-its-airspace-by",[16,66,67,68],"Geopolitics","U.S. x Iran","Iran","2026-05-30T10:42:44.156Z","2026-05-30T10:38:40.231Z","2026-05-31T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran initiates a major closure of its airspace, that is not solely due to weather conditions, by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nA “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or suspension of commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from Iranian airspace or a major Iranian Airspace region. A qualifying closure must apply generally to flights across Iran or a major Iranian airspace region. Limited cancellations, delays, or other partial closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain flights pre-approved by the Iranian Civil Aviation Authority may be permitted). \n\nAny non-weather complete suspension of commercial arrivals and departures affecting at least two of the following airports will qualify: Imam Khomeini International Airport (IKA), Mehrabad Airport (THR), Mashhad International Airport (MHD), Shiraz International Airport (SYZ), or Isfahan International Airport (IFN).\n\nQualifying previous examples include the January 2026 total closure of Iranian airspace except to international flights with express governmental permission (https:\u002F\u002Fwww.reuters.com\u002Fworld\u002Fmiddle-east\u002Firan-shuts-airspace-most-flights-flightradar24-says-2026-01-14\u002F) and the April 2024 closure of Iran’s western airspace (https:\u002F\u002Fwww.reuters.com\u002Fworld\u002Fmiddle-east\u002Firanian-airports-cancel-flights-until-monday-morning-2024-04-14\u002F). Non-qualifying examples include the January 27, 2026 partial closure of Iranian airspace around the Strait of Hormuz (https:\u002F\u002Fwww.aa.com.tr\u002Fen\u002Fmiddle-east\u002Firan-issues-airspace-notice-for-military-drills-near-strait-of-hormuz\u002F3812508) and the January 25 - April 25, 2026 VFR (Visual Flight Rules) flights suspension which did not broadly close commercial aviation in a qualifying region (https:\u002F\u002Fwww.intellinews.com\u002Firan-suspends-general-aviation-and-vfr-flights-in-new-airspace-directive-421997\u002F).\n\nWarnings, No-Fly-Zones, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Iran will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.\n\nAirspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from Iranian aviation authorities and a consensus of credible reporting.",6620506.11378,{"id":75,"title":76,"slug":77,"category":10,"subcategory":49,"tags":78,"probability":83,"createdAt":84,"updatedAt":85,"resolutionDate":86,"description":87,"summary":87,"volume1wk":88,"featured":24},"57096","California Governor Election Winner","california-governor-election-2026",[49,48,16,79,80,81,82],"Governor midterms","California Midterm","rewards 100, 4.5, 100","California Governor",0.25,"2026-05-30T10:42:44.509Z","2026-05-30T10:32:16.807Z","2026-11-03T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to according to the candidate who wins the 2026 California gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026.\n\nIf the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.",4083953.7799110003,1780676617292]