[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":82},["ShallowReactive",2],{"event-page-will-the-gop-use-nuclear-option-to-break-filibuster":3},{"event":4,"related":42},{"id":5,"slug":6,"title":7,"description":8,"summary":9,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":12,"image":18,"probability":19,"volume24hr":20,"volume1wk":21,"liquidity":22,"openInterest":23,"trendScore":24,"active":25,"closed":26,"featured":26,"startDate":27,"endDate":28,"createdAtRemote":29,"updatedAtRemote":30,"affiliateUrl":31,"polymarketUrl":31,"searchKeywords":32,"syncedAt":40,"createdAt":41,"marketCount":19},"52630","will-the-gop-use-nuclear-option-to-break-filibuster","Will the GOP use 'Nuclear Option' to break filibuster by...?","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the US Senate passes a motion to invoke cloture and end debate on any part of the legislative process, with such a cloture motion receiving Yea votes from fewer than three-fifths of the Senators by October 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve \"No\".\n\nConfirmations are considered part of the Senate’s “advice and consent” function, not part of the Senate’s “legislative process,” and will therefore not count towards this market's resolution.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. government.","Will the GOP use 'Nuclear Option' to break filibuster by...? is a prediction market on whether Senate Republicans will use a cloture vote to end debate in a way that falls below the usual three-fifths threshold in the U.S. Senate. The market resolves \"Yes\" if, by October 31, 2025 at 11:59 PM ET, the Senate passes a motion to invoke cloture on any part of the legislative process with fewer than 60 yea votes. Confirmations do not count, since they are part of the Senate’s advice and consent role rather than the legislative process. This event matters because a successful move of this kind would signal a major shift in Senate procedure and could affect how the chamber handles legislation, confirmations, and any government shutdown-related negotiations. The event sits in the Elections category with Trump, Senate, Congress, Politics, and Trump Presidency context, and traders are watching for changes in market sentiment around a possible procedural break. As of the latest data, the market probability is 0%, indicating no current expectation of a successful nuclear option move, though prediction market odds can change quickly as political conditions evolve.","ELECTIONS","Trump",[11,13,14,15,16,17],"Senate","Politics","Trump Presidency","Gov Shutdown","Congress","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com\u002Fwill-the-gop-use-nuclear-option-to-break-filibuster-Kddw_ewxh0G6.jpg",0,50,28147.440836,1326.5421,1048.777962,8734.5406708,true,false,"2025-10-01T18:26:12.788Z","2026-03-31T00:00:00.000Z","2025-10-01T15:10:30.878Z","2026-05-30T10:31:49.436Z","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket.com\u002Fevent\u002Fwill-the-gop-use-nuclear-option-to-break-filibuster?r=predstack",[33,34,35,36,37,38,39],"will the gop use 'nuclear option' to break filibuster by...?","will the gop use 'nuclear option' to break filibuster by...? prediction","will the gop use 'nuclear option' to break filibuster by...? odds","will the gop use 'nuclear option' to break filibuster by...? probability","election prediction market","election forecast","election odds","2026-06-05T13:28:25.581Z","2026-05-30T10:43:09.570Z",[43,54,66],{"id":44,"title":45,"slug":46,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":47,"probability":48,"createdAt":49,"updatedAt":50,"resolutionDate":51,"description":52,"summary":52,"volume1wk":53,"featured":26},"424292","Trump out as President by May 31?","trump-out-as-president-by-may-31",[11,14],0.05,"2026-05-30T10:42:46.411Z","2026-05-30T10:39:57.649Z","2026-05-31T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn announcement of Donald Trump's resignation\u002Fremoval before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to \"Yes\", regardless of when the announced resignation\u002Fremoval goes into effect.\n\nOnly permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.\n\nA sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a \"Yes\" resolution. \n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.",1290998.4749839995,{"id":55,"title":56,"slug":57,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":58,"probability":60,"createdAt":61,"updatedAt":62,"resolutionDate":63,"description":64,"summary":64,"volume1wk":65,"featured":26},"261273","Trump out as President by June 30?","trump-out-as-president-by-june-30",[11,59,14],"Elections",1.2,"2026-05-30T10:42:51.995Z","2026-05-30T10:30:27.784Z","2026-06-30T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn announcement of Donald Trump's resignation\u002Fremoval before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to \"Yes\", regardless of when the announced resignation\u002Fremoval goes into effect.\n\nOnly permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.\n\nA sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a \"Yes\" resolution. \n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.",220747.43252000018,{"id":67,"title":68,"slug":69,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":70,"probability":19,"createdAt":77,"updatedAt":78,"resolutionDate":79,"description":80,"summary":80,"volume1wk":81,"featured":26},"125790","Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by...?","ukraine-calls-a-referendum-on-peace-deal-with-russia-by-january-31",[11,71,72,73,74,14,75,76],"zelensky","Ukraine","Geopolitics","putin","Russia","Ukraine Peace Deal","2026-05-30T10:43:18.819Z","2026-05-30T10:40:21.294Z","2026-12-31T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if a peace referendum on the Russo-Ukrainian war is officially scheduled in Ukraine by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. \n\nA peace referendum for the Russo-Ukrainian war refers to any nationwide vote relating to peace in the Russo-Ukrainian war or over a peace deal to end the war.\n\nA qualifying referendum will be considered to be scheduled once a date for the referendum to take place has been officially scheduled and publicly announced by a relevant Ukrainian government authority with the legal jurisdiction to do so. \n\nOnce a qualifying referendum has been scheduled, this market will resolve to “Yes.” Subsequent legal challenges or other challenges to the legitimacy of the referendum will not affect resolution of this market.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Ukraine; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",16248.59712,1780676622622]