[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":89},["ShallowReactive",2],{"event-page-will-ships-transit-the-strait-of-hormuz-on-any-day-by-may-31":3},{"event":4,"related":46},{"id":5,"slug":6,"title":7,"description":8,"summary":9,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":12,"image":21,"probability":22,"volume24hr":23,"volume1wk":24,"liquidity":25,"openInterest":26,"trendScore":27,"active":28,"closed":29,"featured":29,"startDate":30,"endDate":31,"createdAtRemote":32,"updatedAtRemote":33,"affiliateUrl":34,"polymarketUrl":34,"searchKeywords":35,"syncedAt":43,"createdAt":44,"marketCount":45},"432180","will-ships-transit-the-strait-of-hormuz-on-any-day-by-may-31","Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?","This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above the listed value for any date between market creation and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe number of daily transit calls\u002Farrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on\u002Froll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.\n\nThis market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.\n\nRevisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for May 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https:\u002F\u002Fportwatch.imf.org\u002Fpages\u002Fcb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.","Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? is an economy prediction market tracking whether IMF Portwatch will publish a daily “Arrivals of Ships” count for the Strait of Hormuz at or above the listed threshold at any point between market creation and May 31, 2026. The forecast is straightforward: traders are pricing the odds that ship traffic through this strategically important chokepoint will reach the specified level on at least one day during the resolution window. The Strait of Hormuz matters because it is a critical route for global shipping and oil flows, so changes in transit activity can reflect broader geopolitical and maritime risk. The market resolves using IMF Portwatch’s transit calls data, including container, dry bulk, roll-on\u002Froll-off, general cargo, and tanker vessels reported in its chart and downloadable files. Current market probability is about 11.5%, suggesting traders expect a relatively low chance of the threshold being met before the end date. This event prediction is especially relevant to geopolitics, Iran, U.S.-Iran tensions, oil, and shipping-related market sentiment.","ECONOMY","Economy",[11,13,14,15,16,17,18,19,20],"close","Iran","U.S. x Iran","Oil","Strait of Hormuz","Hormuz","Geopolitics","Trump","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com\u002Fwill-ships-transit-the-strait-of-hormuz-on-any-day-in-march-ERARnetK0FJm.jpg",11.5,145782.809944,952303.4898229997,188888.70686,551929.882119,396360.1932908999,true,false,"2026-04-29T21:06:38.216Z","2026-05-31T00:00:00.000Z","2026-04-29T20:44:17.274Z","2026-05-30T10:37:07.745Z","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket.com\u002Fevent\u002Fwill-ships-transit-the-strait-of-hormuz-on-any-day-by-may-31?r=predstack",[36,37,38,39,40,41,42],"will __ ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by may 31?","will __ ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by may 31? prediction","will __ ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by may 31? odds","will __ ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by may 31? probability","economy prediction market","economic forecast","economic probability","2026-06-05T10:36:08.161Z","2026-05-30T10:42:47.280Z",0,[47,63,74],{"id":48,"title":49,"slug":50,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":51,"probability":57,"createdAt":58,"updatedAt":59,"resolutionDate":60,"description":61,"summary":61,"volume1wk":62,"featured":29},"79041","Largest Company end of December 2026?","largest-company-end-of-december-2026",[11,52,53,54,55,56],"Business","Finance","AI","Tech","Big Tech",0.65,"2026-05-30T10:42:53.329Z","2026-05-30T10:33:40.370Z","2026-12-31T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31, 2026, as of market close.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.",162751.277078,{"id":64,"title":65,"slug":66,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":67,"probability":68,"createdAt":69,"updatedAt":70,"resolutionDate":71,"description":72,"summary":72,"volume1wk":73,"featured":29},"488818","2nd largest company end of June?","2nd-largest-company-end-of-june-849",[11,55,52,53,56],5,"2026-05-30T10:43:00.064Z","2026-05-30T10:38:48.504Z","2026-06-30T16:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to the second-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30, 2026, as of market close.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.",63807.336322,{"id":75,"title":76,"slug":77,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":78,"probability":83,"createdAt":84,"updatedAt":85,"resolutionDate":86,"description":87,"summary":87,"volume1wk":88,"featured":29},"477898","May Inflation US - Monthly","may-inflation-us-monthly",[11,79,80,81,82],"Inflation","CPI","Rewards 20, 4.5, 50","Macro Indicators",0.6,"2026-05-30T10:43:12.677Z","2026-05-30T10:34:25.739Z","2026-06-10T08:00:00.000Z","This is a market about the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).\n\nThis market will resolve to the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) in May 2026 according to the monthly BLS report.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for May 2026 (https:\u002F\u002Fwww.bls.gov\u002Fbls\u002Fnews-release\u002Fcpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on June 10, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.\n\nNote: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) which BLS reports to one decimal point (e.g. 0.4%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.\n\nIf the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https:\u002F\u002Fwww.bls.gov\u002Fschedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.",22270.857474,1780676620051]