[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":81},["ShallowReactive",2],{"event-page-will-russia-invade-a-nato-country-in-2025":3},{"event":4,"related":42},{"id":5,"slug":6,"title":7,"description":8,"summary":9,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":12,"image":18,"probability":19,"volume24hr":20,"volume1wk":21,"liquidity":22,"openInterest":23,"trendScore":24,"active":25,"closed":26,"featured":26,"startDate":27,"endDate":28,"createdAtRemote":29,"updatedAtRemote":30,"affiliateUrl":31,"polymarketUrl":31,"searchKeywords":32,"syncedAt":40,"createdAt":41,"marketCount":19},"25413","will-russia-invade-a-nato-country-in-2025","Will Russia invade a NATO country by...?","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any NATO country between May 28 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by NATO member states or Russia as of May 28, 2025, will be considered the sovereign territory of those countries.\n\nHybrid or “grey zone” operations conducted by unmarked personnel will qualify if they are confirmed to be Russian operatives and are intended to establish de facto control over territory, as occurred in Crimea (2014) or Donbas (2014–2022).\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.","Will Russia invade a NATO country by...? is a geopolitics prediction market asking whether Russia will begin a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of a NATO member state between May 28 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. The market resolves to Yes only if credible sources confirm an incursion or a grey-zone operation by Russian operatives that is meant to create de facto control, similar to the Crimea or Donbas precedents described in the rules. If no such action occurs by the deadline, the outcome is No.\n\nThis event matters because it sits at the center of NATO security, Russia-Ukraine spillover risk, and broader European geopolitical stability. Tags and category signals point especially to Poland, NATO, Ukraine, World politics, and geopolitics, making it relevant to traders following regional escalation risk.\n\nCurrent market probability is 0%, indicating traders currently assign no likelihood to the Yes outcome. As a prediction market forecast, that pricing reflects current market sentiment rather than a guarantee, and it can change quickly if conditions shift.","GEOPOLITICS","Poland",[11,13,14,15,16,17],"World","Politics","Ukraine","Geopolitics","NATO","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com\u002Fwill-russia-invade-a-nato-country-in-2025-VY0jfZfvLhyJ.jpg",0,7645.785372999999,48542.767321000014,51072.67952,397090.022305,28600.2587868,true,false,"2025-05-28T22:16:59.523Z","2025-12-31T12:00:00.000Z","2025-05-28T21:58:50.293Z","2026-06-16T10:02:05.609Z","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket.com\u002Fevent\u002Fwill-russia-invade-a-nato-country-in-2025?r=predstack",[33,34,35,36,37,38,39],"will russia invade a nato country by...?","will russia invade a nato country by...? prediction","will russia invade a nato country by...? odds","will russia invade a nato country by...? probability","geopolitics prediction market","geopolitical forecast","geopolitical probability","2026-06-16T10:08:10.106Z","2026-05-30T10:42:58.680Z",[43,61,72],{"id":44,"title":45,"slug":46,"category":10,"subcategory":47,"tags":48,"probability":19,"createdAt":56,"updatedAt":57,"resolutionDate":58,"description":59,"summary":59,"volume1wk":60,"featured":25},"357807","US x Iran permanent peace deal by...?","us-x-iran-permanent-peace-deal-by","Iran",[47,49,50,51,52,53,54,16,14,55],"Trump","ceasefire","Iran Ceasefire","Agreement","10-point","U.S. x Iran","Peace Deal","2026-05-30T10:42:43.363Z","2026-06-16T10:07:37.026Z","2026-12-31T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran and the United states agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. \n\nA permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between the US and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the two-week ceasefire agreement announced on April 7, 2026), will not qualify.\n\nA qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:\n\n- The United States and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.\n\n- Both the governments of the United States and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",80346197.77405979,{"id":62,"title":63,"slug":64,"category":10,"subcategory":47,"tags":65,"probability":66,"createdAt":67,"updatedAt":68,"resolutionDate":69,"description":70,"summary":70,"volume1wk":71,"featured":25},"504099","Iran ceasefire continues through...?","iran-ceasefire-continues-through",[47,14,51,16],100,"2026-05-30T10:42:43.405Z","2026-05-30T10:36:50.144Z",null,"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the US-Iranian ceasefire remains in effect through the listed date (ET).  Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. \n\nThe US-Iranian ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect if the US government officially publicly confirms or if an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirms that the U.S. conducted a kinetic military action on Iranian soil before the resolution date. \n\nConfirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action must occur within one calendar day following the underlying action (i.e., by 11:59 PM ET on the following calendar day) in order to qualify. Accordingly, this market will remain open for one calendar day following the listed end date to allow for confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action occurring near the deadline.\n\nA qualifying \"kinetic military action\" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory. \n\nKinetic action against Iranian forces which do not occur within Iranian terrestrial territory will not qualify. \n\nActions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.\n\nThe resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.",25312735.30568604,{"id":73,"title":74,"slug":75,"category":10,"subcategory":14,"tags":76,"probability":19,"createdAt":77,"updatedAt":78,"resolutionDate":69,"description":79,"summary":79,"volume1wk":80,"featured":25},"517606","US announces new Iran agreement\u002Fceasefire extension by...?","us-announces-new-iran-agreementceasefire-extension-by",[14,16,51,47,54,55],"2026-05-30T10:42:44.017Z","2026-06-16T10:06:05.405Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if the U.S. officially announces an extension of the ceasefire agreement between the U.S. and Iran, defined as a publicly announced commitment to the continued halt of direct military engagement with Iran or announces a new peace agreement, ceasefire framework, or diplomatic agreement under which the ceasefire will continue by the specified date 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf a qualifying announcement is officially made before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire extension ultimately takes effect.\n\nA qualifying announcement requires clear public confirmation from the U.S. government that the U.S. has either:\n \n1. Extended its commitment to the ceasefire, either as a dated\u002Ftime-based extension (e.g. a 60 day extension) or through an explicit statement that the ceasefire has been extended.\n\n2. Renewed the existing ceasefire as part of a broader peace agreement, ceasefire framework, or diplomatic agreement under which the ceasefire will continue.\n\nStatements which merely acknowledge, reaffirm, or describe the current ceasefire as remaining in effect, or which outline further negotiations or de-escalation measures, without announcing a new extension period, or successor agreement under which the ceasefire will continue, will not qualify.\n\nThe following would qualify:\n- President Trump announcing that “the ceasefire has been extended for another 60 days.”\n- An official U.S. statement announcing that “the United States and Iran have agreed to extend the ceasefire framework while negotiations continue.”\n- President Trump’s April 21, 2026 announcement extending the ceasefire “until the Iranian negotiators could reach a unified proposal.”\n- An announcement that the US and Iran have agreed to a new temporary framework under which the ceasefire would continue as Iran gradually reopens the Strait of Hormuz and the United States begins to unfreeze Iranian assets would qualify.\n\nThe following would not qualify:\n- Statements that the ceasefire merely “remains in effect” or “continues to hold,” without announcing a new extension, renewal, or successor agreement.\n- Statements that “the ceasefire will remain in effect while negotiations continue,” without announcing that the ceasefire itself has been extended, or a new framework or deal has been reached\n- Statements that negotiations are progressing, that talks are ongoing, or that the parties are “getting closer” to a deal, without announcing that the ceasefire itself has been extended, renewed, or continued under a new agreement.\n\n\nAn overwhelming consensus of credible reporting that a qualifying extension or successor agreement has been definitively established will also suffice for a “Yes” resolution.\n\nThis market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the U.S. government and will not require confirmation from Iran. ",16205133.21684103,1781606313322]