[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":78},["ShallowReactive",2],{"event-page-will-russia-enter-kindrashivka-by-february-28":3},{"event":4,"related":40},{"id":5,"slug":6,"title":7,"description":8,"summary":9,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":12,"image":16,"probability":17,"volume24hr":18,"volume1wk":19,"liquidity":20,"openInterest":21,"trendScore":22,"active":23,"closed":24,"featured":24,"startDate":25,"endDate":26,"createdAtRemote":27,"updatedAtRemote":28,"affiliateUrl":29,"polymarketUrl":29,"searchKeywords":30,"syncedAt":38,"createdAt":39,"marketCount":17},"197909","will-russia-enter-kindrashivka-by-february-28","Will Russia enter Kindrashivka by...?","This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures any territory of Kindrashivka, Kharkiv Oblast, (49.767840° N, 37.579877° E) between market creation and February 28, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET.\n\nTerritory will be considered captured if any part of Kindrashivka is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https:\u002F\u002Fstorymaps.arcgis.com\u002Fstories\u002F36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.\n\nFor any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either \"Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine\", “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. \n\nOnce a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.\n\nIf Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https:\u002F\u002Fdeepstatemap.live\u002F) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.\n\nNote: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.","Will Russia enter Kindrashivka by...? is a geopolitics prediction market on whether Russian forces will capture any part of Kindrashivka in Kharkiv Oblast before the February 28, 2026 deadline. The event is tied to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) map, which serves as the primary resolution source, with DeepStateMap or credible reporting used only if needed. In plain terms, traders are forecasting whether the village will show confirmed Russian control, infiltration, or gains on the map for a sustained update cycle before the cutoff. The market also allows a Yes resolution if Russia gains actual control through a negotiated settlement, but a de jure agreement alone is not enough. As a Ukraine-focused event in the broader geopolitics and politics categories, it reflects market sentiment around the pace of the war in northern Kharkiv Oblast and the likelihood of territorial change near the front line. Current market probability is not available in the supplied data, but the prediction market remains centered on the expected outcome of territorial capture by the specified deadline.","GEOPOLITICS","Ukraine",[11,13,14,15],"Ukraine Map","Geopolitics","Politics","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com\u002Fwill-russia-enter-kindrashivka-by-february-28-EKFN7l13jHID.jpg",0,159.568217,20544.413095000004,4385.92723,4489.737527,7120.293483000001,true,false,"2026-02-04T00:17:23.503Z","2026-05-31T00:00:00.000Z","2026-02-03T23:06:46.878Z","2026-05-30T10:35:55.333Z","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket.com\u002Fevent\u002Fwill-russia-enter-kindrashivka-by-february-28?r=predstack",[31,32,33,34,35,36,37],"will russia enter kindrashivka by...?","will russia enter kindrashivka by...? prediction","will russia enter kindrashivka by...? odds","will russia enter kindrashivka by...? probability","geopolitics prediction market","geopolitical forecast","geopolitical probability","2026-06-05T13:33:11.217Z","2026-05-30T10:43:14.129Z",[41,55,66],{"id":42,"title":43,"slug":44,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":45,"probability":49,"createdAt":50,"updatedAt":51,"resolutionDate":52,"description":53,"summary":53,"volume1wk":54,"featured":24},"73056","Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?","ukraine-signs-peace-deal-with-russia-before-2027",[11,46,15,14,47,48],"Foreign Policy","World","Ukraine Peace Deal",30.5,"2026-05-30T10:42:49.017Z","2026-05-30T10:32:52.939Z","2026-12-31T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to “Yes”  if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire\u002Farmistice, framework\u002F“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities\u002Festablishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace\u002Fnormalization plus principles, steps, and\u002For a timetable) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. \n\nOnly Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.\n\nLocalized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade\u002Fexport arrangements, border\u002FDMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector\u002Ffront\u002Fmunicipality—will not qualify.\n\nThe document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted. \n\nThe primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. \n",485869.726181,{"id":56,"title":57,"slug":58,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":59,"probability":17,"createdAt":61,"updatedAt":62,"resolutionDate":63,"description":64,"summary":64,"volume1wk":65,"featured":24},"25036","Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by...?","will-russia-capture-kostyantynivka-by",[11,15,47,14,60,13],"Russia Capture","2026-05-30T10:42:50.012Z","2026-05-30T10:39:19.297Z","2025-12-31T12:00:00.000Z","This is a market on the likelihood of Russia capturing Kostyantynivka by a specific date.",351746.365096,{"id":67,"title":68,"slug":69,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":70,"probability":17,"createdAt":74,"updatedAt":75,"resolutionDate":26,"description":76,"summary":76,"volume1wk":77,"featured":24},"131611","Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by...?","will-russia-capture-all-of-stepnohirsk-by",[11,13,71,72,15,73,60,14],"Russia","putin","Military Actions","2026-05-30T10:42:52.686Z","2026-05-30T10:40:09.859Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the entirety of Stepnohirsk, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, by January 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.\n\nStepnohirsk will be considered captured if the entirety of the municipality is shaded red on the ISW map (https:\u002F\u002Fstorymaps.arcgis.com\u002Fstories\u002F36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by January 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”.\n\nFor any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.\n\nThe territory of the municipality is shaded in light grey and is distinguished from bordering municipalities such as \"Prymorske\" with a darker grey line. If all area within the municipality is shaded in red, however, the shading does not precisely match up with the border such that there is a tiny amount of grey along the border of the city, this will still qualify for a \"Yes\" resolution.\n\nOnce Russia captures the entirety of Stepnohirsk, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.\n\nLocation on Google maps: https:\u002F\u002Fmaps.app.goo.gl\u002FCwF1b64Qo49PvUZw5\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https:\u002F\u002Fdeepstatemap.live\u002F) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.\n\nNote: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.\n\nIf Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.",177734.237888,1780676632924]